The end is nigh. Sing it, kitty! In other news …

• A rated Monmouth University Poll’s last survey of Pennsylvania’s Senate race gives Lt Governor Fetterman (D) a 49% to 44% lead over Dr. Oz. How broken is this race? Will Oz pull it out? Even thrash Fetterman? Emerson College may be indicating that, giving Oz a 48% to 46% lead. Susquehanna Polling and Research, B+ rated, believes Dr. Oz has a lead of 47.6% to 46.6%, or another dead heat. Remington, more on them below, has Dr. Oz ahead 47% to 44%, while B+ rated Suffolk University, while finding their recent debate may have hurt Fetterman due to his stroke-affected performance, gives Fetterman a 47% to 45% lead, or too close to really call. Notable: The contest is up for grabs, the survey shows, with an unusually high 19% of independents undecided, even as early voting has opened. 19% of independents are undecided? Are you yanking my starter cord? Or is this article from WaPo, quoting Dr. Oz as saying Senator McConnell runs the party and not the former President, a deal-breaker for MAGA voters in PA? Daily Kos’s Joan McCarter seems excited about it.
• B rated Remington gives Arizona Senator Kelly (D) a 48% to 47% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R) in Arizona. On RealClearPolitics, Remington Research Group has (R) after their name, which appears to mean they’re Republican leaning. If so, Kelly may have a somewhat larger lead than shown here. For instance, A+ rated Siena College just gave the Senator a six point lead. But GOP linked Insider Advantage makes it a dead heat at 48%.
• B/C rated University of Arkansas has issued a poll for the Arkansas Senator Boozman (R) vs Natalie James (D) race, but there are no numbers in the document. The RealClearPolitics link for it, though, claims Boozman now has a 33 point lead. While not surprising, it’s disappointing in that the two previous available polls gave Boozman a much more surprisingly slim 13 point lead. But University of Arkansas does not have an impressive rating, either.
• GOP linked Insider Advantage gives Florida Senator Rubio (R) a 51% to 45% lead over Rep Val Demings (D). This seems broadly consistent with other polls. Although this guy claims to have interviewed a Florida pollster who says Crist (D, formerly R) leads Governor DeSantis (R) in the Florida gubernatorial contest by six points, which would be a real outlier. I don’t doubt either of the guys, I just don’t believe the result, not only because most other polls show DeSantis way out ahead, but this guy gets his results from online polling.
• A rated SurveyUSA has Georgia Senator Warnock (D) up 49% to 43% over challenger Herschel Walker (R), while Republican pollster Remington turns the lead around, Walker 49%, Warnock 45%.
• Emerson College suggests the Kansas race has broken open, with Senator Moran (R) leading 54% to 33% over challenger Mark Holland (D). As Moran’s On The Issues page suggests he’s a rabid anti-abortionist, this is a little on the unbelievable side. I guess we’ll find out in five days.
• The Trump – McConnell feud continues in the GOP. This sort of thing, common in organizations that have as foundational principles arrogance, self-regard, greed, idolization of wealth, and etc, often leads to failure to reach organizational goals, and sometimes the dissolution of such organizations. Whether that happens here remains to be seen.
• GOP linked Trafalgar continues the Saint Anselm’s College findings by giving Don Bolduc (R) a small lead over New Hampshire Senator Hassan (D), 47% to 45.7%. Just call it a dead heat. However, trekking in outlier land, UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion gives Senator Hassan a 51% to 41% lead. That’s huge. And out of line with other pollsters. But Lowell’s is a B+ rated pollster, so sneezing is out of the question.
• The latest Marquette Law School Poll, A/B rated, gives Wisconsin Senator Johnson (R) a 52% to 46% lead over Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D). Another six years of dread stupid rumors? Say it isn’t so! However, A+ rated Siena College gives Johnson a much smaller 47% to 45% lead, or technically a dead heat. And in this poll Johnson isn’t over the 50% hurdle.
• Remington is giving J. D. Vance (R) a 48% to 43% lead over Rep Ryan (D) in Ohio. And there’s Baldwin Wallace University, B/C rated, giving Ryan the advantage at 50.2% to 46%, which I don’t call an outlier, but I lay in bed at night debating the point. From The Center Square regarding this poll, Notable: Vance’s memoir Hillbilly Elegy that detailed his family’s crisis in Appalachian Ohio surrounding opioid addiction along with other economic and socioeconomic issues became wildly popular and led to a movie. To Sutton, “airing dirty laundry” of the region could create problems for Vance with voters in the area. “J.D. Vance became very well know because of his memoir and has been seen as a great success,” Sutton said. “But if you’re from these communities dealing with these issues, you look at your brethren here and he aired the dirty laundry. For the folks that live in those areas he committed a cardinal sin. I think those folks in those areas are either voting for Ryan or sitting this race out. So, one of the things I’m going to be looking at is the vote gap between those who vote for DeWine and those who vote for Vance.” I look forward to hearing if this hypothesis proves out.
• Emerson College gives North Carolina Rep Ted Budd (R) a 50% to 45% lead over Cheri Beasley (D). Balancing them, B- rated Civiqs has these two nominees tied at 49%, with a margin of error of ± 4.9 points.
• Finally, SurveyUSA shows Trudy Busch Valentine (D) closing the gap too slowly and too late in Missouri, as Eric Schmitt (R) leads 50% to 41% to replace the retiring Senator Blunt (R). A previous poll showed a 12 or 13 point lead, I forget which.

Last time? I spilled something on it. Here it is.

Blah blah blah. Right? In other news…

• A+ rated Siena College/The New York Times Upshot has the Nevada race of Senator Cortez Masto (D) and challenger Adam Laxalt (R) as a dead heat at 47% apiece. It seems they do not take the University of Nevada – Reno’s poll giving Cortez Masto a 13 point lead seriously. Notable: Their report consistently misspelled Cortez Masto’s last name as Cortez Mastro. Gonna be some red faces at the Siena College Research Institute office. Emerson College, a respectable A- rated outfit, gives Laxalt a largish 50% to 45% edge. And Suffolk University, B+ rated, gives Cortez Masto a 45% to 44% lead, much like Siena. If the Hispanic community comes through for the first Latina in the US Senate, then Masto will be reelected; otherwise, it’ll be a long night.
• The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot gives Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) a 49% to 44% lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in the race for the open Pennsylvania Senate seat. GOP linked and B rated Insider Advantage takes an opposite position, giving Dr. Oz a 46.9% to 44.0% lead. And Muhlenberg College/Morning Call, the former B+ rated, stakes out a middle position and calls this Senate race a dead heat at 47% apiece.
• The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot gives Georgia Senator Warnock (D) a 49% to 46% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). If only that lead were larger. Walker was a great football player, but every time he opens his mouth I either don’t understand him, or he’s out and out frightening. The last AJC poll has this race as a dead heat: In the race for the Senate, Walker is at 46% and Warnock is at 45% — a difference of a fraction of a percentage point that’s within the poll’s margin of error 3.1 percentage points. Libertarian Chase Oliver has about 5% support, and an additional 5% are undecided. A failure to break the 50% barrier will result in a runoff, just like last time. That may be to the Senator’s detriment, as Chase Oliver (L) will no longer be around to split the conservative vote.
• The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot does not give Arizona challenger Blake Masters (R) a lead in Arizona, unlike some polls, but rather Senator Kelly (D) has a 51% to 45% lead. OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, has Senator Kelly also leading, 48% to 46%, giving Marc Victor (L) 3%. And Fox News has Kelly up 47% to 45%. In other news, aforementioned Marc Victor (L) won’t be fulfilling the implicit nominative determinism-linked prophecy, as abc15 Arizona is reporting: Libertarian candidate Marc Victor is dropping out of the race to be Arizona’s next U.S. Senator. In a video on his website Tuesday morning, Victor made the announcement and added that he was endorsing Republican candidate Blake Masters. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. I hadn’t heard of Victor until just a few days ago, but I expect he provided a refuge for those moderate Republicans who couldn’t stomach Masters and didn’t want to vote for Senator Kelly. Will they suck it up and pick either of the remaining two candidates, leave their ballot blank – or vote for Victor as a protest? Reportedly, he’ll still be on the ballot, and I doubt ballots can be modified to reflect his capitulation – and generally campaign advertising is banned at voting sites, so some voters may not be aware of his withdrawal. And what of mail-in ballots? Will Victor voters seek to amend their votes, or will they shrug it off? But if the Siena poll is accurate, Masters has to persuade some Kelly voters to vote for him, and that will prove difficult, outside of a black swan event.
• The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot offered some rarities: polls of House of Representative races. I picked the Kansas offering of KS03, as it shows a Democrat creaming a Republican in Kansas: “In this rematch between two candidates well known to voters, Davids, the Democratic incumbent, has a significantly better favorability rating and a solid 14-point lead over Republican Adkins, who previously represented the district. Davids beat Adkins two years ago by 10 points. Davids has the support of 97% of Democrats, picks up 13% support from Republicans and has a two-to-one lead with independents. Adkins trails with men by two points and with women by 26 points.” Politics is mostly local, so drawing national conclusions from this is a touchy business, even in today’s unusually national environment, brought on by the blowback from the January 6th insurrection and the Dobbs decision overturning what is turning out to be the highly popular Roe vs. Wade decision – but it certainly sounds as if the conservative voters of KS03 are beginning to realize that Democrats can be good elected representatives as good as, or even better, than Republicans. Nor does it sound like a red wave. While 13% of the Republicans voting for the Democrat is not a large percentage, it’s a beginning to healing the frightening abyss between political factions. Or it’s part of the birth of at least one new political party. And it may indicate voter exhaustion with what passes for the Republican Party these days.
• Speaking of Siena College/The New York Times polls, it’s noteworthy that they’re more in line with other polls from past top-of-the-line pollsters than with the pollsters that happen to be GOP linked, such as Cygnal, Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, and maybe one or two others – and are not as highly rated. Indeed, this diarist on Daily Kos thinks those GOP linked pollsters may be slanting their results in order to influence voters, perhaps encouraging GOP voters and discourage Democratic voters, rather than measuring voters, as is more proper. Keep this in mind when reading Republican optimistic opinions, such as Erick Erickson’s prediction published today: The GOP really could get to 53 seats. And he’s absolutely confident that Walker will win the general election, and may even exceed 50%, which would permit him to skip the runoff otherwise required by Georgia law. If Republican boosters are basing their optimism on slanted polls designed to discourage Democratic voters who are, nevertheless, motivated by any or all of the extraordinary events of the last two years, it could be a deeply unpleasant surprise for the far-right extremists.
• And just because I’ve mentioned the Oklahoma gubernatorial race before, the latest is that the race is tightening, with Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister narrowly leading Governor Kevin Stitt (R), and now comes a new endorsement from a Republican: It was the “honor of a lifetime” to represent Oklahoma in Congress, [Former Rep. J.C.] Watts says, adding, “I was a Republican then, and I am a Republican now, and friends, I’m voting for Joy Hofmeister. All the scandal and corruption is too much. Joy is a woman of faith and integrity. She’ll always put Oklahoma first. I know Joy personally. I trust her, and you can, too.” File that under another rejection of the current state of Republican politics. Will Oklahoma have a Democratic governor? Or is this late Emerson College poll showing Stitt with a stiff nine point lead presaging the future?
• In New York, Emerson College follows up a recent poll with another that shows Senator Schumer (D) stretching his lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R) to 55% to 36%. Will they have an afternoon poll to complement their morning poll?
• Hallelujah, Alabama has a poll: GOP-linked Cygnal’s poll has Katie Britt (R) leading Will Boyd (D), 57.1% to 27.5%. I’m not feeling the tension, no matter how much Cygnal may be leaning.
• I missed this Iowa poll from a two or so weeks back: Change Research, B- rated, replicates the Des Moines Register poll results, 48% to 45%. Note to Franken: it’s only a shocker if you actually win. Grassley is no longer fit for service and needs to be put out to pasture. Notable: With three weeks to go, Grassley is weak with his own base. Just 92% of Republican voters and 89% of 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Grassley. Grassley gets near universal support (98%) among self-identified MAGA Republicans who voted for Trump in 2020 (about half–47%–of those who voted for Trump in 2020 identify as MAGA Republicans), but only 81% of non-MAGA Trump voters say they will vote for Grassley in this election. Wow. Being a close ally to Trump doesn’t guarantee slavish support, apparently, from Trump or his supporters. Franken has a ten point lead among independents, and if he can pick up a few more, he may pull this most unexpected upset off. Remember, though, Change Research only has a B- rating.
• A/B rated Saint Anselm College has the New Hampshire Senate race at a razor thin lead for challenger Don Bolduc (R) over Senator Hassan (D), 48%-47%. Call it a head heat with a margin of error of ± 2.5 points. Maybe the SLF canceled any more ad buys because it thinks Bolduc has the win in the bag? (See previous New Hampshire news at the link.)
• An Emerson College poll shows a potential blowout in the contest between Oklahoma Senator Lankford (R) and challenger Madison Horn (D) as the former appears to have a 57% to 33% lead.
• The same poll shows Kendra Horn (D) trailing Rep Mullin (R) 56% to 35% in the Oklahoma special election. It’s a real pity to reward a Trump-worshipper like Mullin with a job of this magnitude of responsibility.
• Utah has been one of the most mysterious races this cycle, with challenger Evan McMullin (I) barking at Senator Mike Lee’s (R) heels, according to Deseret News polls as well as McMullin-sponsored private polls. However, OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, isn’t going along with the other pollsters, public and private, and gives Senator Lee the edge a cliff of support at 53% to 34%. This 19 point lead is surprising, and if Lee performs as they expect it’ll be a boost to their mediocre rating. If, on the other hand, Lee substantially underperforms, then there may be questions as to their competency. In fact, Emerson College also recently released a Utah poll, and it gives Lee a still surprising 49% to 39% lead. A 10 point lead is substantial, but not an imposing 19 points. Notable: The economy is the top issue for 47% of Utah voters in determining their November vote, followed by “threats to democracy” (12%), and abortion access (10%). Someone should remind these voters that, without democracy, there is no flourishing economy, and Senator Lee apparently doesn’t comprehend that.
• GOP linked Insider Advantage has Washington Senator Murray (D) leading challenger Tiffany Smiley (R) by only 48% to 46.4%. This is at some variance with other recent Washington polls, such as the Seattle Times poll giving Murray an 8 point advantage, or this recent poll from Triton giving Murray a 5 point lead.
• Fox News surveys Wisconsin and finds Senator Johnson (R) and his conspiracy nuttiness holds a 48% to 45% lead over challenger Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D). Can former President Obama turn sentiment around for Barnes?
• Emerson College, busy as a bee, surveys Missouri and finds Eric Schmitt (R) has a bigger lead over challenger Trudy Busch Valentine (D), 51% to 39%. It appears Schmitt has saved this seat for the Republicans; if former Governor Greitens (R) had won the primary, this would have been a far different race.

The second latest, and therefore useless, installment in this series is here.

What’s out lying in the backyard? You go look, I’m curled up in a chair. Meanwhile …

• The Cortez (D) vs Laxalt (R) contest in Nevada has been one of the closest in the nation. And then along comes the pollster University of Nevada-Reno, unknown to FiveThirtyEight, and they award a 52% to 39% lead to … Senator Cortez. With a margin of error of … it’s not entirely clear.  ± 4 points. A sudden jump from a dead heat to a thirteen point lead? Or is this the Mother of all Outliers? Do they know more about Nevadans than the out-of-state interlopers pollsters? Stay tuned.
• The Florida contest of Senator Rubio (R) vs Rep Demings (D) is another of the hottest contests in the Senate this cycle. But now the University of North Florida, an A/B rated pollster, is giving the Senator a surprising 54%-43% lead, with a margin of error of a largish ± 4.7 points. Notable: “The surprise in these numbers is that a statewide race in Florida is closer to a blowout than a recount,” said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF political science professor. “Florida has become a red state; it will likely take an exceptionally weak Republican candidate for Democrats to win statewide — and Rubio is not a weak candidate.” Rubio’s weakness on immigration legislation nearly a decade ago suggests otherwise, and his responses to recent events have been nearly as bad as Georgia candidate Herschel Walker’s. If Demings is blown out, Democrats nation-wide had better take a close look at themselves. Or is this just another outlier poll?
• Georgia Senate candidate Herschel Walker (R) is either profoundly put-upon by nefarious characters, to borrow my Arts Editor’s phrase, or he doesn’t believe in self-restraint. Why do I say this? Here we are, less than two weeks out on Election Day, and another woman has claimed that Walker pressured her into having an abortion years ago. The timing of the accusation is certainly suspicious, but on the other side of the pivot is Walker’s history of sincere, steadfast mendacity. Simply typing that sentence should convince every Georgia voter to either vote against Walker or stay home; the blot on their honor in the event of an actual vote, not to mention the fortunes of Georgia in the US Senate, are too hideous to contemplate. In the area of polls, A rated Monmouth College is out with their latest poll, giving Senator Warnock (D) a 49% to 44% lead if I do my math properly, with an unusually large margin of error of ± 5 points. Notorious GOP-optimistic pollster Rasmussen Reports, still B rated, has Walker ahead of incumbent Senator Warnock (D) 48% to 43%, with a margin of error of ± 3 points. This is outside the range of most other pollsters’ numbers. We may be experiencing the Night of the Outliers, folks. Anyone tracking Roger Corman’s activities these days?
• Kansas‘ list of resources doesn’t seem to include polling – yes, there was one, see the link – but a recent article on Democratic challenger Mark Holland can be dug up with a minimum of effort. Notable, besides his optimism: “We don’t need to apologize for being Democrats,” Holland told Steve Kraske in an Oct. 11 interview on KCUR’s Up To Date. “We have a better message on health care, a better message on public education, a better message on wages, a better message on guns, a better message on women’s rights.”
• In Pennsylvania’s Senate debate, Dr. Oz’s (R) response to a question concerning how to regulate abortion has fallen with a thud to the floor, or at least so Democrats believe. Oz’s statement? “I don’t want the federal government involved with that at all,” Oz said. “I want women, doctors, local political leaders letting the democracy that’s always allowed our nation to thrive to put the best ideas forward so states can decide for themselves.”
  Republicans are convinced that Lt Governor Fetterman’s (D) difficulties with audio processing, stemming from his stroke, have convinced swing voters that voting for a snake oil salesman is a better choice than a dedicated public servant. GOP-aligned Insider Advantage follows through by giving Oz a rare lead in their recent survey, 47.5% to 44.8%. Insider Advantage’s B rating is better than SSRS’s C rating, which we saw on the last update giving Fetterman a six point lead. Which is the outlier?
• Alabama still has no polls that I can find, but pastor Will Boyd (D) believes he has a chance against Katie Britt (R) in this conservative state where they use accusations of being ISIS supporters against each other in the primaries. Boyd explains his optimism in this News19 report from last month. Notable: But Boyd, the former college professor lists reasons for his optimism. It starts with voter enthusiasm, he says. He told News 19 that national polling data shows voter enthusiasm is on the side of Democrats. It seems unlikely. But how can we predict if someone stole all our goats there are no polls?
• Hey, finally Illinois gets another poll, this time from Emerson College, which is A- rated. Senator Duckworth’s (D) lead is down to 10 points, 49% to 39%, meaning challenger Salvi (R) still has a hill to climb in this last week and a half or so.
• North Carolina is another hot Senate race, but not outlying here: Marist Polls, A rated, has the race as a dead heat at 44% among registered voters, but a four point lead, 49% to 45%, among those definitely planning to vote, for Rep Budd (R) over Cheri Beasley (D). Notable, because they say so: Among independents, Beasley receives 40% to 39% for Budd. A notable 17% are undecided. A 31-point gender gap exists, with a majority of men (53%) favoring Budd and a majority of women (51%) favoring Beasley.

When you just need that dollop of out of date news from XX22, you can go here.

Perhaps the news is slowing. Perhaps I’m squinting.

• 

  Once again, it’s Scylla and Charybdis, last used here!

  Erick Erickson, in the face of fourth-rate – or worse! – Republican candidates, remains confident of success in a couple of weeks. Why? In an email that doesn’t appear to be on his blog: Oregon Democrats are panicking as Nancy Pelosi’s campaign team has pulled money from historically blue house seats because the Republicans are so far ahead. If true, that has to be of concern for those voters who find the candidates behind which Erickson stands to be of an enormously substandard variety. But of more interest from him is this post, which can be read, with only a few changes, as a condemnation of both parties for their absolutist elements. For the Democrats, their transgenderism stance, seemingly unconscious of the societal directive that parents guide and raise children, and not succumb to their every demand, is just one of his criticisms; while, Erickson completely unconscious of it, the absolutism of anti-abortion stands forth as a crippling intellectual failure for the Republicans. In a sense, these two positions are Scylla and Charybdis, a metaphor I’ve used before, the terrifying sea monsters between which mariners must sail, and independent voters are heading for that deadly whirlpool wherein they can pick a Republican Party that abandoned the principles of liberal democracy a decade or more ago, or a Democratic Party that has become increasingly arrogant and certain of itself, and flouted liberal democracy itself when it promoted transgenderism as the law of the land sans discussion. But if Erickson is right, then there’s the question of even those he might assume are his allies are instead abandoning him; see the next two news items.

• The Tulsa World, which one would assume is reflective of its city and state of Oklahoma, and is thus traditionally a conservative rag, has issued an endorsement for the special election to fill Senator Inhofe’s (R) seat after his planned January ’23 resignation. The endorsement is not for Republican candidate Rep Markwayne Mullin, but, surprisingly, the Democratic candidate, former Rep Kendra Horn. Will this move the needle in Oklahoma? Probably not. But it remains a noteworthy move, remarkable in that it may alienate a number of subscribers. Notable: Her congressional stint gives Oklahomans a glimpse of what Oklahoma lawmakers of the past looked like. They were pragmatic legislators who looked after their state and found ways to get things done rather than cater to the fringes of their own parties. Mullin’s frantic attempts to get the former President’s attention and endorsement were, in the end, embarrassing, and indicative of a candidate willing to owe his political career to an ineffective, possibly even worse than that, President, rather than make his own reputation and way.
• There may be no polls for the Kentucky race between Senator Paul (R) and challenger Charles Booker (D), but we do now have an endorsement. The Lexington Herald-Leader has endorsed the Democrat, Booker, rather than the incumbent, a move virtually unheard of for respectably sized newspapers, and the Herald-Leader is the second largest (well, back in 1999) in Kentucky. Here’s the link, but it’s behind a paywall, so I didn’t give it a read. Regardless, disgust with Senator Paul’s (R) behavior is apparently spreading. Not that I expect an upset in Kentucky, but it’s a nice thought – I don’t much care for Paul’s behaviors, either.
• Unsurprisingly, challenger Natalie James (D) is not getting any attraction traction against Senator Boozman (R). The Arkansas Senator has a 52% – 32% lead over James, according to Talk Business & Politics, a pollster unknown to FiveThirtyEight. Last month the lead, measured by the same pollster, was just more than 13 points, and Boozman only had a 43.5% share of the survey answers. He’s now over the 50% mark, giving James a real challenge. For the record, in 2016 Boozman won by 23 points, so he’s not been notably damaged by the general fourth rate nature of the Republicans this cycle.
• Florida Atlantic University, an A/B pollster, gives Florida Senator Rubio (R) a 47.7% to 42% lead over challenger Rep Demings (D). While it may remain encouraging that Rubio is failing to find his way over the 50% mark, Demings remains in a challenging position herself, despite her superior credentials. The margin of error is ± 3.65 points.
• GOP-linked Insider Advantage, B rated, gives Nevada challenger Adam Laxalt (R) a 48.2% to 46.3% lead over Senator Cortez Masto (D).
• Insider Advantage also rates the Pennsylvania race as “neck and neck” at 46% apiece to Fetterman and Oz.
• Remember my report of a news item about Ukrainians alienated by Republican anti-Ukrainian statements? This may impact the Ohio races, according to WaPo, as they confirm the earlier report. Pissing off Ukrainians, whether over there or over here, would seem to be a very bad practice.
• A Seattle Times survey has Washington Senator Murray (D) leading challenger and moderate Tiffany Smiley (R), 49% – 41%. Murray is not over the 50% hurdle, which should be concerning for her, but Smiley continues to carry the burden of a Washington Republican Party loaded with extremists.

The previous edition, scorned by many, is here.

Banging on the door, screaming to be let. In other news:

• In terms of general applicability to the Democratic case, Biden’s move to pardon non-violent marijuana possession offenses has proven to be quite popular. Will voters connect traditional Republican opposition with their election choices? Or will unexpected Republican silence on Biden’s announcement be a successful tactic?
• Apparently Senator Lee (R) of Utah is in serious trouble, as Erick Erickson is pulling out the big guns of Guilt and Shame to goad Senator Romney (R) into endorsing Lee, if he can. I just don’t think Erickson understands the situation because he’s embedded in it. What passes for the Republican Party these days, in large part, is repugnant not only to the left, but to the independents and moderate Republicans as well. Between the January 6th Insurrection and Dobbs, it’s hard to see how Republicans fit into an American way of life where we collectively choose our leaders, when they’re busy making winning paramount, along with fetishizing money, and engaging in absolutism that endangers pregnant women and anyone who knows the easily enraged with a gun. Trump childishly humiliated Romney, Lee is a close ally of Trump, and so why is it hard to understand that Romney would rather see Lee, a man who doesn’t even think Democracy is important, lose to McMullin under the appearance that Lee is not a defender of the Republic?
• No doubt you’ve heard, but in case you haven’t, early voting is bounding right along, way ahead of the 2018 and even 2020 figures, where available. From CNBC:
  

  Turnout from Georgia’s first day of early voting set a new state record for a midterm election, nearly doubling the figure from the same time period in the previous midterms, state election officials said Tuesday. … More than 131,000 Georgia voters cast ballots since early voting began Monday, according to the office of Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. The figure represents an 85% boost over the 2018 midterms, when nearly 71,000 early votes were cast on Day One, the office said.

  Georgia, of course, is the venue for the Warnock / Walker contest, so some the jump is attributable to that. Is it otherwise significant? Erick Erickson, exhibiting mainstream media paranoia, doesn’t think so: Some of you are falling for the doom scenarios that Democrats are turning out in record numbers in early voting so you might as well give up. Don’t fall into that mindset. It was obvious that would be a last-minute media narrative concocted by the Democrats and advanced by a partisan political press. Because voters are easy to discourage? No, they’re hard to encourage, but once they decide they’re voting, they’re voting. That’s one of the lessons of Kansas, earlier this year. The pro-choice voters were faced with polls predicting the proposed state Constitutional amendment that would enable the Legislature to strip them of their abortion rights would win. That didn’t stop the pro-choice voters, who rejected the proposal by 18 points.

• Continuing an inadvertent pundit review, lefty documentarian Michael Moore, who predicted the shocking Trump victory, is predicting a blue tsunami this year.
• The recently released Times/Siena poll for the generic Congressional ballot has shocked many pundits, as it shows a 32 point shift among independent women voters in a month. Kerry Eleveld @ Daily Kos thinks it’s an outlier and should be ignored.
• In Colorado, Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group, B/C rated, shows Senator Bennet (D) leading challenger Joe O’Dea by 11 points, with a margin of error of ± 3.5 points. That seems to be all we get. That’s a bigger lead than other Bennet / O’Dea polls have shown, so maybe discount that number a bit. Notable remark found in the Denver Post: O’Dea spokesman Kyle Kohli said Bennet’s campaign and his allies had spent tens of millions to beat O’Dea, who he said had Bennet “on the ropes.” I gotta wonder just big a loss qualifies as on the ropes.
• A rated Landmark Communications‘ latest poll gives Senator Warnock (D) of Georgia a 46.1% to 46% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). It’s disappointing to think a gibberish spewing candidate is even seriously considered by the electorate.
• CBS News/YouGov, the latter B+ rated, rate Nevada as a toss up, as each garners a 48% share in their latest poll.
• A rated SurveyUSA gives Senator Schumer (D) a 52% to 38% lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R). Traction is unavailable in New York, it seems, as those numbers are comparable to previous polls.
• Cheri Beasley’s slipping, but the pollster is GOP-linked Trafalgar, so their assessment of North Carolina’s Senate race at Rep Budd (R) 48.4% to Beasley’s (D) 44.2% might need a discount. Or not. In three weeks we’ll find out.
• GOP aligned Cygnal, B+ rated, gives J. D. Vance (R) a 47% – 43% lead over Rep Tim Ryan (D) in Ohio.
• For those voters worried about Pennsylvania Lt. Governor Fetterman’s (D) health, his doctor says don’t.
• Trafalgar sees the Arizona race as a 1 point affair of 47.4% for Kelly (D), 46.4% for challenger Masters (R). Seeing as OH Predictive Insights had Kelly holding a thirteen point lead, I suspect there’s a bit of a let-down.

The last time they let is here.

Rumors of dragons abound, chasing maidens and gophers about. Quite pestilent. In other news, their prey keep running for office.

• Politico has an article on the potentially defective strategy employed by national Democratic organizations insofar as advertising goes for the Senate race in North Carolina.
• Emerson College gives Senator Murray (D) a 51% – 42% lead over challenger Tiffany Smiley (R) in Washington’s Senate seat race, which are numbers similar to other recent polls. The margin of error is ± 3.4 points.
• In Arizona a CBS News/YouGov Poll shows Senator Kelly (D) leading challenger Blake Masters (R) 51% – 48%, with a margin of error ± 3.8 points. This is a smaller margin that most other recent numbers. YouGov is rated B+.
• A Mason/Dixon Poll has Senator Rubio (R) of Florida leading challenger Rep Demings (D), 47% – 41%. Mason/Dixon is A- rated, so this must be of strong concern for Demings.
• In case you were wondering, North Dakota, Oregon, Hawaii, Louisiana, Idaho, and Kentucky remain unpolled with regard to their Senate races, at least that I can find. Bah.
• There is an overview of Oregon candidates for Senate available, though. I kinda liked the truck driver; the Green Party candidate seemed naive.
• Trafalgar continues to go against the grain by giving Senator Hassan (D) a slim 3 point lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), 48.2% to 45.0%, in New Hampshire. Other pollsters are awarding larger gaps, and thus more credit to New Hampshire voters.
• In Ohio, unknown and perhaps suspect Center Street PAC gives Rep Ryan (D) a shocking 49% to 38% lead among “likely voters.” An 11 point lead in the Ohio race is out of line with other pollsters, some of which have shown Vance with a lead. Is Center Street PAC’s methodology flawed, or do they know something that escapes the other pollsters?
• Politico analyzes House special elections and comes up with this: The race in New York’s 19th District wasn’t unique. A POLITICO analysis of turnout data before and after Roe v. Wade was struck down in June shows that voters in rural counties were less motivated to cast ballots than those in more Democratic-leaning suburbs and cities after the Supreme Court decision. Though special elections are not a crystal ball, that could spell potential trouble for the GOP if the trend continues to the midterms in November, because rural voters, who overwhelmingly supported former President Donald Trump, are a key constituency for Republican candidates. As ever, though, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. And it raises an important question: why is their turnout lower? Have the rural women, realizing that all forms of abortion, and possibly even medical birth control, are suddenly endangered, but unable to persuade themselves to vote Democrat, simply staying home? One would think that, having “won” the stripping of Constitutional protection of abortion rights via Dobbs, they’d realize now they need to take a second step.
• SDSU (South Dakota State University) Poll, unknown to FiveThirtyEight, gives incumbent Senator Thune (R) a 51% to 31% lead over challenger Brian Bengs (D) in South Dakota. That’s overwhelming and leaves only the shouting, no doubt by former President Trump, who had vowed to have Thune primaried and out of politics, so this’ll be another failure for Trump, even if he endorses Bengs. Not impossible with the Trump Lump of Hatred, but his endorsement power isn’t what he thinks it might be. The only surprise in the poll is that Gov Kristi Noem (R), thought to have Presidential ambitions and be more popular than Thune, is actually in a close race, leading 45 to 42 over challenger Jamie Smith (D). That’s within the margin of error. It’s an idle question, as I doubt Noem’s performance will impact Thune vs Bengs, but did Noem’s poor decisions vis a vis Covid impact this election?
• Peter Welch (D), vying for the open Vermont Senate seat, leads competitor Gerald Malloy (R) by an astonishing 62% – 28% margin, according to the UNH Survey Center, which is rated B-. That’s an abyss in politics, and more fingers than I currently possess. For comparison, the only other poll I’ve found for the Vermont Senate race is by Trafalgar, and has Welch also leading the relatively moderate Malloy, but by less than 8 points. This is a bit crazy.
• This is neither final nor of direct effect for the November elections, but Senator Sasse (R-NE), a former Midlands University president, has reportedly been offered the same job at the University of Florida, and has accepted. There are still a few steps to be taken by the University of Florida. Assuming all goes well, Sasse would resign his seat by the end of the year. Does this have immediate meaning? No. His seat will be filled by appointment by a Republican governor, Pete Ricketts, and the in-fighting in Republican ranks may be quite entertaining if Ricketts is not wisely expeditious. But, eventually, a special election will need to take place, and that will give Nebraska Democrats a chance to make some noise, inspired by Kansas Democrats.

The dead snapdragon news is here. Dragons snapping their fingers, it’s quite a sight, but they’re so competitive that they just can’t get the synchrony right.

So much blah. You’d think we’d run out. Here, you can have some of mine.

• In the ever-popular Arizona race, Suffolk University gives incumbent Senator Kelly (D) a 49.0% to 42.2% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R). Suffolk is rated B+. Kelly’s lead has been all over the map, but this seems like a solid, middle of the road number. Meanwhile, in a bit of an echo, A rated Marist Poll suggests Senator Kelly (D) is leading 51% – 41% challenger Blake Masters (R) in Arizona. Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) signals that Masters is unsalvageable may prove correct, but I would like to see Kelly with a fifteen point lead with less than a month left. Notable remark: Among independents, Kelly (51%) receives majority support and leads Masters (34%) by double digits. A 19-point gender gap also exists. While a majority of women (55%) support Kelly, men divide (47% for Kelly to 46% for Masters). These are the remarks that I’d expect to doom Masters.
• But Pennsylvania could be even more ever-popular. Or was it more broken? Anyways, A rated Marist Poll gives Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) a 51% – 41% lead over Dr. Oz Mehmet (R). While it’s disappointing that so many Pennsylvanians think the TV celebrity with a long history of promoting snake oil deserves a position in the Senate, at least the number sounds right. Notable other finding: When thinking about midterm elections, 40% of Pennsylvania adults say inflation is the issue that is top of mind. Preserving democracy (29%), abortion (16%), immigration (7%), and health care (7%) follow. Which speaks to my observation that democracy is like sex: if you’re getting some, it’s not at the forefront of your mind. If you’re not getting it, it’s the only thing on your mind. On the other hand, A rated Fox News‘ latest Pennsylvania poll for the Senate race shows Lt Governor Fetterman (D) leading Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) 45%-41%, a statistical dead heat. Which leads to the inevitable question: Why the difference between two top ranked pollsters? I suspect the thumb on the scales at Fox News for conservatives is stronger than that at Marist. It is, after all, Fox News, although A rated is A rated. We’ll find out whose adjustments are more accurate in November. B rated InsiderAdvantage has a similar result, 44.8% to 41.7%, again within the margin of error.
• Senator Lankford (R) of Oklahoma has received former President Trump’s endorsement. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? Probably good for Lankford at the moment, but by the time Election Day has rolled around, it could be very, very bad. Nyah, who am I kidding? He’s an incumbent conservative in a highly conservative state. So far as I know there’s no blemish on his record; he seems to be a back-bencher.
• A rated Siena College gives Rep Ryan (D) a 46% – 43% lead over J. D. Vance (R) in Ohio with a margin of error of ±4.4 points. This state has become one of the hottest Senate battlegrounds, which suggests to me that the Ohio’s natural conservatives are confronting the extremist conservative views embodied in Vance, principally the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the proposal of a national abortion ban, and an opposition to divorce, and are beginning to have doubts about them. If Ryan can avoid a faux pas, he may snatch a victory here and make the Democrats two-for-two in Ohio Senators.
• In Kansas, Governor Kelly (D) has picked up another endorsement from a Republican, in this case former Governor Mike Hayden (R-KS). So? So, if Hayden is widely respected in the state, this may compel some Kansans to re-examine their views on the Senate race of incumbent Jerry Moran (R) and Mark Holland (D) and, perhaps, change their minds. Holland has a long ways to go, and must grasp after every bit. But I don’t know enough about Hayden’s reputation in the state to guess if he’s influential or not.
• Senator Blumenthal (D) of Connecticut continues to sport a large lead, this time 53% to 40%, over challenger Leora Levy (R), in a Hearst/WFSB poll. Notable: Levy, a Republican National Committee member and long-time party fundraiser, was not recognized by 36% of likely voters and 21% had no opinion of her. Among those who did, 18% were favorable and 23% unfavorable. Apparently she’s having trouble getting her message out, or she’s not campaigning just yet. But it does suggest some fallow ground to till.
• Polls are surprisingly scarce in Illinois, and my DuckDuckGo searches keep showing me a link to how Senator Duckworth (D) has a lead but has “soft” support. Maybe that’ll disappear with the A- rated Emerson College Polling result of a 19 point lead for Duckworth, 50% – 31%, over challenger and “I’m the only Republican who can defeat Tammy Duckworth in the fall!” claimant Kathy Salvi (R), which is a highly unfortunate echo of the former President and current endorser. As this is a 9 point fall for Salvi from the only other poll, she’s definitely moving the wrong way very quickly. Notable: President Joe Biden has a 49% job approval among Illinois voters, 44% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Important? I think so. Duckworth’s 2016 victory margin? Roughly 15 points, so her current lead is not a surprise.
• Senator Hassan (D) of New Hampshire continues to have an almost-comfortable lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), 49.6% – 41.2%, according to B+ rated Suffolk University. A little higher and I’d be willing to say that Hassan seems assured of winning. But what are New Hampshire Republican voters thinking when they nominated Bolduc, and then select him in the poll? Reminds me of the time my conservative Uncle Bill, up for a visit from Illinois, asked me why the hell that “dingbat” notorious Minnesota Rep Michelle Bachmann (R) kept getting reelected. I had to say I had no idea.
• A- rated Public Policy Polling gives Senator Murray (D) a 52% – 40% lead over challenger and moderate Tiffany Smiley (R) in Washington, suggesting Republican hopes of flipping this seat are in tatters.
• B/C rated Fabrizio/Anzalone (aka FabrizioWard + Impact Research aka ALG Research – so confusing), for AARP Wisconsin, is giving Senator Johnson (R) a 51% – 46% over Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) in Wisconsin. with a ±4.4 point margin of error. Notable: Both [candidates] are viewed unfavorably by 50% of voters, with Johnson’s favorable rating (48%) a bit higher than Barnes’ (43%). Johnson’s disrespectful treatment of voters should turn off citizens; I don’t know why folks don’t like Barnes, but I don’t live there. Then again, A- rated Public Policy Polling has this race tied at 47%.

That bag of old, tepid coffee grounds may be found here.

Our latest plate of news, steaming and really overflowing, stop being generous Mom:

• In Colorado, at least through the lens of DuckDuckGo, it appears the media keeps trying to make the contest between incumbent Senator Michael Bennet and challenger John O’Dea look exciting, and the public is having none of it. Emerson College Polling gives Bennet a 46% – 36% lead, not far different from the last poll results of an 11 point lead. However, this is notable: … a plurality (39%) of Independent voters either have no opinion or have not heard of O’Dea, leaving room for Republican growth with this cohort. O’Dea will have to work hard and hope for a dab of luck, but at least he doesn’t have to peel voters away from Bennet. Bennet needs to connect with voters. I’ve mentioned this in earlier thoughts on O’Dea, but I think it’s both unfortunate and inevitable that a candidate as apparently moderate as O’Dea ends up in a competitive, or even Democratic state. In a safe Republican state the extremists swarm.
• A- rated Quinnipiac University Poll agrees with Emerson College Polling. Incumbent Connecticut Senator Blumenthal (D) has an overwhelming 17 point lead over challenger Leora Levy (R), 57% – 40%. That is a very big hill to climb in six weeks. Don’t look for the Republicans to pick up a seat here.
• B+ rated Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion is weighing in on the Pennsylvania Senate race, awarding Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) a 49% – 44% lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R). This is a smaller gap than most polls, but it’s worth noting that this poll has a margin of error of 6 points, which is rather high. I mean, Oz could actually be ahead, or Fetterman could have a huge lead of 11 points. They needed to do more interviews.
• In Kansas Emerson College Polling says incumbent Senator Moran (R) leads Pastor Holland (D) 45% to 33%, suggesting Moran’s extremist stance when it comes to abortion is not a terminal condition, despite the rejection of an anti-abortion Constitutional amendment by Kansas voters earlier this year.

  Or could it be?

  A walk down memory lane tells us that Moran won his seat in 2016 by a full 30 points. Assuming Emerson got this poll right, that implies Moran has lost 18 points worth of support, and Emerson advertises a “Credibility Interval”, similar to margin of error, of ±3 points. Yes, Holland is potentially 9 to 15 points down, and, on the low end, that’s significant. Then note that Moran is not yet over 50%, the critical point at which the #2 contender has to start persuading voters to change their minds, rather than just persuade the undecided to pick the #2. 18% are undecided, enough to take Holland over the top.And there’s two more Kansas factors to consider, with information also from Emerson’s poll. First, Governor Kelly (D) is leading in her reelection effort by four points. In Republican Kansas, this is a huge margin for her to hold. Can her example of a competent Democratic help Holland? Second, Governor Kelly’s opponent from four years ago, extremist Kris Kobach, is running for his old position of AG. Yes, he leads the race against his Democratic opponent – but it’s only a two point lead! Could Kobach drag down Moran? It seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened in American politics.

  All that said, I’d be shocked if Moran lost. But Holland, if he’s an adept campaigner and doesn’t hesitate to use Moran’s liabilities against him, has a chance to turn this around. It’s slender, but it’s there. Let Moran stick his foot in his mouth, and this race could be the sleeper of the season.

• The Granite State Poll in New Hampshire gives incumbent Senator Hassan (D) a 49% – 41% lead over challenger retired Brigadier General Bolduc. Notable comment: Bolduc garners the support of just under half of Independents (45%), while 30% support Hassan and 21% support [Libertarian] Kauffman. I think Hassan should strive to attract more Independent support, otherwise it’s a weak spot. Although how Independents can vote for a guy, by whom I mean Bolduc, who thinks voters shouldn’t elect Senators is baffling. This pollster is unknown to FiveThirtyEight.
• CBS News/YouGov gives Georgia Senator Warnock (D) a 51% – 49% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). YouGov is a B+ rated pollster. A basic tenet of my position on the Republican Party is reinforced by this commentary: Walker’s supporters say they aren’t voting for him mainly because they like Walker; instead most say they are voting for him either to oppose Warnock or because Walker is the Republican Party’s nominee. Bold mine. Never mind that Walker’s mendacious and incoherent and we can’t even get to questions about his competency for the position of Senator because the muck is so deep. He was nominated and that’s it for the thinking part of the program. Toxic team politics. It’s crap like this that makes me think the United States is doomed.
• Conservative pollster Trafalgar has challenger Adam Laxalt (R) leading incumbent Senator Cortez Masto (D) 47% – 43% in Nevada. Trafalgar has seemed to be leaning more conservative than most pollsters. Do they know something the other pollsters don’t?
• B- rated Civiqs gives North Carolina’s Cheri Beasley (D) a 49% – 48% lead over Rep Ted Budd (R) in the race for an open Senate seat. This race is a real sizzler at the moment. Can the former President sink Rep Budd through some political misstep over the next few weeks?
• If Senator Moran doesn’t lose (see above), perhaps the sleeper race of the year will be that of Senator Mike Lee (R) of Utah, as his lead over Evan McMullin (I) has shrunk to two points, 36% – 34%, with 16% undecided and the balance looking at other options. This poll is from Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics, unknown to FiveThirtyEight, and claims a margin of error of ±3.43 points. Their previous poll of late July gave Lee a five point lead, so McMullin appears to be making progress. Can he close the gap? Utah Republicans must be sweating this one out, knowing that Lee is a close ally of the former President, and Trump is looking worse and worse every day.
• Crosscut.Elway gives Senator Murray (D) of Washington a 50% – 37% over challenger Tiffany Smiley (R), one of the more moderate Republican Senate candidates this year. There’s a ±5% margin of error.

The previous soup bowl of news is here.

Did I say something about snow? I hope not. Here’s some real news. I hope you like it.

• On Blake Masters’ candidacy in Arizona, Erick Erickson has this to say:
  

  I don’t need to write a ton here. I just want to direct you to this piece in the Wall Street Journal. Blake Masters is losing Arizona, and it should be winnable.

  But the reality is that Peter Thiel and Donald Trump went to bat for Masters in a crowded primary, poured millions in to get him the nomination, and they’ve abandoned him since. Thiel, only under pressure from Rick Scott and Mitch McConnell, is allegedly going to commit more money.

  I personally think Erickson’s optimism concerning Arizona is unwarranted, as illustrated in this post. But the title of his post is important: Grifting to Loss.

  The power structure that has evolved atop the Republican Party since the ascension of Trump appears to be focused on eliciting donations, not on winning elections. This is a bit odd for me to write, since the Gingrich Doctrine calls for winning in any way possible, not through the usual democratic means of persuasion and competency. But then, Trump is not a Gingrich disciple; he’s a grifter.

  And it’s important to remember that grifters are rarely, if ever, long-term project builders and servants to the public good. It’s all about getting while the getting is good. The transformation of the Republican Party from a responsible governance institution into a Win by any means! institution has led, inevitably, to what Erickson condemns.

• New Hampshire Senate candidate and passionate election denier Don Bolduc (R) has suddenly erased the second clause from his description, above. While I have plenty of respect for people willing to change their minds when presented with evidence contradicting positions, the alacrity of this mind change is unpersuasive. And will his primary voters reject this bait and switch? Or will they see it as an attempt to attract independent voters and accept it as a necessary election strategem? In the first post-primary New Hampshire poll, incumbent Senator Hassan (D) leads Bolduc by 11 points, according to Emerson College Polling, 51% – 40%. For a Senator in imminent danger of ignominy, according to many pundits, she appears to be in good shape. But there’s still more than a month to go.
• Emerson College Polling/The Hill gives Rep Tim Ryan (D) a 44% – 40% lead for the open Ohio Senate seat, with a margin of error of 3 points. Ohio polls have been bouncing around, and only the last one in earlier November counts.
• The latest East Carolina Poll gives North Carolina Senate candidate Rep Ted Budd (R) a 3 point lead over Democratic nominee and former State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley, 49% – 46%. The margin of error is estimated at 3.6 points. While Beasley has made progress since the last poll by this institution, that’s still a hill to climb.
• In Alaska the fourth qualifier for the Senate general election seat, Buzz Kelley, has “unofficially withdrew,” leaving Senator Murkowski (R), Kelly Tshibaka (R), and Patricia Chesbro (D) in the RCV (ranked choice voting) contest. In the nonpartisan primary, Kelley only drew 2.1% of the votes, which makes his withdrawal of minor significance. Chesbro, the Democrat, only drew 6.8%, so it appears this will be a battle between the moderate Murkowski and Tshibaka, herself somewhat of a moderate, according to her summation by On The Issues to the reader’s right. But she’s been endorsed by the former President.
• In Washington Public Policy Polling, rated A-, has pulled the hearts out of the mouths of Democratic voters by giving incumbent Senator Murray (D) a 9 point lead, 48% – 39%, over challenger Tiffany Smiley (R). For the absent-minded, Trafalgar gave Murray a lead of 2.9 points, aka a “statistical dead heat”. Whether that poll was an outlier, or if the passing of time reflects Washington voters learning more of Smiley and deciding to stick to who they know, is not clear.
• 

  On The Issues summation of Senator John Boozman (R-AR).

  In Arkansas, Talk Business & Politics (TB&P), unknown to FiveThirtyEight, conducted a poll of voters and says incumbent Senator Boozman (R) leads challenger Natalie James (D), 43.5% – 30.5%. While the double digit lead is not surprising, there is some surprise, on my part, at the actual numbers: the incumbent’s failure to surmount the 50% marker suggests that quite a few Arkansas voters are troubled by the incumbent. They may be working their way through the intellectual and emotional challenges of voting for a Democrat who is not against abortion. Boozman cannot credibly claim to be a moderate, now can he? I still don’t think James can upset Boozman – but she may give him a scare. TB&P provides an extended, useful analysis that notes James has failed, so far, to attract the black vote, and women voters are far more undecided than male voters. She has a very tall mountain to surmount, but at least she only has to climb the undecided mountain. The Boozman voter mountain would be far more difficult.

• A Trafalgar poll shows incumbent Senator Kelly with a one point lead over challenger Blake Masters (R) in Arizona, which I think is shocking. Masters is an extremist and inexperienced and has no business in this race. However, the associated article from The Hill notes … GOP polling firm Trafalgar Group … Pollsters will often put their thumbs on the scale, legitimately, to correct for past variances between poll estimates and actual results. More ambitious pollsters will go further to please their ideological allies, and it’s possible that a few will engage in rank lying in order to gin up enthusiasm on their side. Trafalgar is rated A- by FiveThirtyEight, so, unless there’s been an ownership change at the pollster, I doubt they’d actually be lying. But it’s possible they’ve over-corrected for a candidate that appears, at least to me, to be absolutely unacceptable. Note, however, Emerson has actually reported similar results.
• Maryland’s first poll since the Senate primary, from unknown Goucher College, gives incumbent Senator Chris Van Hollen (D) a 56% – 33% over challenger Chris Chaffee (R). Chaffee’s facing the task of persuading Van Hollen voters to change their minds and vote for Chaffee, instead. To think he can do that is nigh the definition of optimism. Van Hollen appears secure, absent a devastating black swan.

Previous, outdated news has been hoarded here. Watch out for mantraps.

Yes, more, more. They never stop, do they?

• The final qualifier for the Senate seat race in Alaska is Buzz Kelley (R). In this RCV non-partisan primary, here are the rough numbers: Murkowski (R) 43.7%, Tshibaka (R) 40.4%, Chesbro (D) 6.2%, and Buzz Kelley (R) 2.2%. If Murkowski wins despite the endorsement of Tshibaka by former President Trump and the Alaska Republican Party, will the Party fade into irrelevance? This may be more likely than is first apparent, because the lone Alaskan seat in the US House is currently empty due to the death of the last seatholder, longtime Representative Don Young (R). The special election was held Aug 16th and is currently led by … Democrat Mary Peltola. But a lot of vote counting must still be performed. If Peltola wins the runoff for a couple of months of seat-filling, and then wins the regular election in November, has the Alaskan electorate given the Alaska Republican Party the big waveoff, basically telling the extremists to get out of town?
• The Kansas Reflector has an interview and profile of Kansas candidate Mark Holland (D).
• North Carolina’s contest between Rep Budd (R) and Cheri Beasley (D) is called “a dead heat” by the Civitas Institute, a conservative pollster. Each of the two candidates polled at 42.3%. This organization is not known to FiveThirtyEight, and so evaluating the poll is a bit difficult.
• A Trafalgar poll in Ohio gives J. D. Vance (R) a five point lead over Rep Ryan (D). Trafalgar is rated A- by FiveThirtyEight.
• A rated Fox News gives Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) a 50% – 46% lead over incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) in Wisconsin’s Senate race, which is within the margin of error. The consolation prize is that Johnson supporters are more enthused. Apparently, they want to lose their Social Security checks?
• Nevada’s Reno Gazette teams with Suffolk University to produce a poll showing incumbent Senator Masto (D) leading challenger Adam Laxalt (R) 45% – 38%. The last poll I saw gave Masto a three point lead, so this is a problem for Laxalt, who is Trump-endorsed. Suffolk is rated B+ by FiveThirtyEight. Masto appears to be benefiting from the Dobbs decision motivating Democratic voters. Is Masto safe yet? No. Trafalgar has released a poll showing Laxalt leading by three, 47%-44%. I’d wait until Masto, or Laxalt, has a twelve point lead before considering them safe.
• A rated Fox News gives incumbent Senator Kelly (R) of Arizona an eight point lead over Blake Masters (R), a considerable comedown from the fourteen point lead awarded by newcomer pollster Center Street PAC last week. That’ll learn me, darnit. But it’s still a lead outside of the margin of error in a purple state. In other news, though, another Republican+Independent group of forty leaders have announced their support for Kelly rather than Masters.
• It appears Rep Deming (D) has won the right in the primary to challenge Senator Rubio (R) for his seat in the Senate from Florida. The second place finishing Democrat didn’t exceed 10%.
• In Missouri John Wood (I) has ended his candidacy in the wake of Eric Schmitt’s defeat of Eric Greitens in the Senate primary.
• Oklahoma’s Rep Markwayne Mullin (R) will be the Republican’s nominee for the open Oklahoma Senate seat, as the Trump endorsee defeats T. W. Shannon with 65% of the primary vote. Does this signal a crack in the Republican voters? Probably not, but a poll would be welcome.
• In Washington McLaughlin & Associates claims the race between incumbent Murray (D) and challenger Smiley (R) is 49% – 43% for Murray, much tighter than other polls of this race. As I’ve noted before, this pollster is rated “C/D” by FiveThirtyEight, and in another negative note, RealClearPolitics, an aggregator of polls, does not appear to be willing to use this pollster.

A vague gesture of previous report & prediction here.

They were hiding in rabbit holes, but now they use rhino holes.

• TargetSmart claims in a Tweet – so this that as you will – new voter registrations in States with poor abortion rights protections have surged among the young woman group. The implied raising of the importance of politics and governance in the younger portion of the electorate is not only significant for the 2022 election, but will carry forward into future elections. It may even apply to generations too young to vote in the 2022 election, but still paying attention. The SCOTUS conservatives’ “victory” symbolized by Dobbs may mark the beginning of a very long occupation of minority status by the Republican Party, regardless of its composition, in the United States. More analysis of TargetSmart’s claims by Laura Clawson on Daily Kos here.
• New Hampshire’s Senator Hassan (D), despite not having an opponent as of yet, does not do well in a Saint Anselm College poll. It’s more than a little difficult to see her losing to these far-right extremists, but I suppose anything is possible.
• A profile of Oklahoma candidate in the special election to replace the retiring Senator Inhofe (R), and former Rep, Kendra Horn (D) is here in Roll Call. Its descriptions of Oklahoma Republicans reminds me of those of Kansas Republicans, arrogantly certain of themselves even after their Constitutional Amendment was shot down. But that doesn’t mean Horn will be winning this fall.
• Colorado’s Senator Bennet (D) has an eight point lead over challenger Joe O’Dea (R), according to a poll by McLaughlin and Associates from a couple of weeks ago. That is not as good as the previous poll result of a twelve point lead for Bennet. The problem? McLaughlin and Associates gets only a “C/D” rating from FiveThirtyEight. The link to the poll notes that McLaughlin and Associates has ties to the Republican establishment, which may skew their results as they try to please their patrons. Even the linked article mentions this. I still think Bennet should win this race, but I’m not sure I’d accord this result much credibility. A WaPo report suggests O’Dea is a moderate Republican, which may make Bennet’s job a little tougher.
• Unlike the unknown pollster Center Street PAC, A- rated Emerson College Polling has J. D. Vance (R) leading Rep Tim Ryan (D) in Ohio, 45% – 42%, in its first poll of the Ohio Senate race, suggesting Ryan has a hill to climb and that the seat from Ohio remains in doubt.
• Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) reportedly wants to invest Social Security funds in … the stock market! I don’t have access to the original article, but I just have to wonder what happens to those Social Security checks when the market crashes, and what would happen to the market if a large blob of money was invested. In fact, it all sounds like madness to me. However, don’t confuse this with the Bush 43 plan to privatize Social Security, which was explored in detail and rejected.
• Harry Enten, former FiveThirtyEight-ite now with CNN, confirms Senator McConnell’s fear that many Republican Senate candidates are disliked by the electorate using polls. Of course.

The previous book of Senatorial doom is here, right down that rabbit hole, two to the left. Right. Up.

Mere speculation and completely made up guesswork: That’s how Republicans appear to be defending the former President. But enough of the sideshow, let’s go see the Senators! Can you tell the Minnesota State Fair is imminent?

• New Hampshire’s incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan (D) may not yet know her general election opponent, which will be determined in a Sep 13 primary, but if the three GOP candidates who showed up for a debate last weekend are the top candidates, and participant Don Bolduc, a retired brigadier general, leads the pack by quite a lot, then the New Hampshire Republican Party is unlikely to snap up Hassan’s seat in November. Brandishing far-right positions such as abolishing the FBI as well as the 17th Amendment, which would make the state legislatures responsible again for selecting Senators – evidently because trusting voters is too much for this crew – they are emblematic of a GOP that has been RINOing its way to the right in a blind fury of power madness and, I suspect, will go right off a cliff in November, screaming, yet again, of a stolen election, wearing their badge of righteousness on their sleeves, while leaving the cloak of humility in the closet. Ahem. Putting the soapbox away now. Sorry about that.
• In the first poll for any Senate contest I’ve seen since the FBI visit to Mar-a-Lago, University of North Florida reports that Florida incumbent Senator and Trump ally Marco Rubio (R) now trails challenger Rep Val Demings (D) by four points, 48%-44%, among registered voters; that 4 point gap is greater than the margin of error. University of North Florida polls are rated “A/B” by FiveThirtyEight, so there may be some credibility in this poll. I’d like to see several polls from different sources coming to the same conclusion before thinking Rubio’s likely to lose, but I will add Rubio to the list of endangered Republican Senators.
• Speaking of endangered Republican seats, Jennifer Rubin notes a report from  The New York Times that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is cutting advertising budgets in Pennsylvania, where Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman reportedly has a large lead over Republican and neophyte Dr. Mehmet Oz, Arizona, where Senator Mark Kelly (D) is facing extremist and political neophyte Blake Masters (R) and reportedly has a fourteen point lead, and, surprisingly, Wisconsin, where Senator Ron Johnson, whose sanity could easily be questioned, will be facing off against recently selected candidate and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) [later note: See more on Barnes vs Johnson below]. If the NRSC is ceding Wisconsin, that’s huge news and is beginning to make the potential Senate gains for the Democrats look shocking – and confirm my thesis that the American electorate has little patience for extremists, who now make up most or all of the Republican Party, regardless of where we are in the election cycle. Democratic would-be extremists, take note and shut up.
• Alaska’s primary has yielded the following promotions to the general election: incumbent and Trump-hated Senator Lisa Murkowski (R), Trump endorsee Kelly Tshibaka (R), followed at some distance by Patricia Chesbro (D) and a player to be named later. This is rather better for the Senator than predicted, strengthening my suspicion of a victory for her, barring black swans. Remember, this is a Ranked Choice Voting state (RCV), which works to moderates’ advantage, and Murkowski may be the most moderate Republican Senator out there.
• 

  Senator Thune’s (R) On The Issues summation. Yep, he’s about to fall off the edge of the world there, isn’t he?

  If I’m to believe this poll, South Dakota citizens mostly reject abortion extremists who try to outright ban abortion, although they may disapprove of abortion itself. It’s that nuance that makes me doubt this suggests this is trouble for incumbent Senator John Thune (R), regardless of the magnitude of his extremist measurement from On The Issues. Show me a couple polls with Thune trailing challenger Brian Bengs (D) and I’ll change my tune, although satisfying noted Thune-hater DJ Trump would be a bit galling.

• In the first poll in Wisconsin since primary voters selected incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) and Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) as the last additions to the 2022 Senate race in Wisconsin, and the first Wisconsin poll since the Mar-a-Lago visit by the FBI, Marquette University Law School Poll, an “A/B” rated pollster according to FiveThirtyEight, gives Barnes a seven point lead, 51%-44%. While this may fluster the timid pundit pool, it’s what I hoped to see when I wrote about the burdens Johnson is carrying: a history of conspiracy theories, possible dementia, and the overwhelming weight of the Wisconsin GOP, who appears to be exceptionally lost in the wilderness, probably not to return until most of the membership is ejected and former members invited to rejoin.
• It seems unlikely, but keep in mind that Senator Inhofe’s (R-OK) seat will lack an incumbent defender in November, and his seat in red, red, red Oklahoma may be in danger if favored successor wannabe Markwayne Mullin (R), who has not yet won the primary runoff scheduled for August 23, continues putting his foot in his mouth with such statements as
  

  “We saw this media frenzy about supposedly classified information — where was this same media frenzy when there was 33,000 classified emails on a server in a bathroom with Hillary Clinton?” Mullin asked, indignantly. “Why didn’t they raid that bathroom?” [TPM].

  Since there were 133 classified emails and Secretary Clinton delivered the email server up on request, unlike the former President and his stolen documents, Mullin is now vulnerable to charges of lying by his challengers, primary runoff mate T. W. Shannon (R), and if he slips by Shannon, general election challenger Kendra Horn (D). As noted before, it’s worth keeping half an eye on this Oklahoma contest. I suppose a poll is unlikely until after the runoff. I’m such a member of the Instant Gratification Generation.

• Summarizing current Democratic status: Seats probably lost: None. Seats I currently consider to be in danger: None. Seats that had been thought to be in danger a few months ago, but now no longer so considered: Arizona, Georgia, Washington, New Hampshire. Not enough data: Colorado, Nevada.
• Summarizing current Republican status: Seats probably lost: Pennsylvania, Ohio. Seats I currently consider to be in danger: – Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Wisconsin. If things break just right, Republicans may also lose: Missouri, Kansas, Utah (to independent Evan McMullin), Kentucky. Not enough data: any seat currently held by a Republican for which no polls of relevance available. There’s blood in the water, folks.

More flubs concerning Senate races are here.

Yes, there’s a news stream. It’s behind the old Potter place. Why do you ask?

• In Connecticut, as they await the August 9th primary, a Republican-sponsored poll gave this result: McLaughlin’s poll for Jordan found [incumbent Democratic Senator] Blumenthal with an 11-point lead over his closest Republican challenger, Themis Klarides, similar to the results of an Emerson College poll conducted for WTNH in May. But respondents were unfavorable when asked if Blumenthal “deserves” to be reelected. [WSHU] Maybe not all politics is local, but a big chunk qualifies.
• 

  Senator Moran’s On The Issues summation.

  The Democratic nominee for the Kansas Senate seat currently occupied by Senator Moran (R) is minister and former mayor Mark Holland. He is thought to have little chance, but here’s an “among the voters” piece from KCUR. On The Issues rates Senator Moran as quite the extremist, which may enhance Holland’s chances. My latest on Kansas here.

• Bad news continues in Pennsylvania for Dr. and candidate Mehmet Oz (R), as his opponent for the open Senate seat, Lt. Gov. Fetterman (D), has won another poll. A Center Street PAC poll show Fetterman ahead 52% – 38%. A key observation that will apply to many Republican candidates: Almost all voters know Oz, but they don’t like him. Oz’s un-favorability levels are staggering among unaffiliated voters and Democrats, and his Favorability among Republicans is barely above neutral. This suggests a huge disconnect between PA GOP primary voters and the general electorate, but then voting for the inexperienced fool’s gold hawker Oz in the first place, apparently based on his endorsement by former President Trump, demonstrates the deeply fallen nature of the PA GOP.
• Center Street PAC remains a polling organization of unknown quality, but it’s worth noting that their latest Ohio Senate poll, a Republican seat in which the incumbent is retiring, has Rep Tim Ryan (D) leading lawyer and author J. D. Vance (R) 49% – 38% among likely voters. If SurveyUSA or another A-rated pollster released numbers like that for reddish Ohio, I’d be happy, as Vance is not really qualified for the seat. For the moment, it merits a contingency “if accurate”, but suggests Republican arrogance may be turning off Ohio voters. This would be another invalidation of the Republican wave thesis that has been such a favorite among the timid pundit set.
• A-rated SurveyUSA has a poll out showing that the Missouri Senate race between State AG Schmitt (R) and former nurse and heiress Valentine (D), taken in late July, prior to the primary that selected each, has Schmitt up by six. As noted before, a poll prior to that one showed Schmitt with a thirteen point lead. How about a poll since the primary? For reference, in 2018 Senator Hawley (R) won his general election by roughly six points.
• In North Carolina and the competition for an empty Senate seat, currently held by Republicans, Cheri Beasley (D) is finding the climb steep against Rep Ted Budd (R). She’s down by 5 points, according to a Civitas poll. FiveThirtyEight does not appear to rate Civitas, so it’s difficult to gauge this poll’s credibility.

Previous allegations, unsubstantiated as they are, are here.

It’ll soon be August 2nd. Then it’ll be August 2nd. And then it’ll be past, and maybe some news will blow in through the door, riding a rogue tumbleweed.

• In New York, the latest Emerson College poll finds incumbent Senator and Majority Leader Schumer (D) leading challenger and radio pundit Joe Pinion (R) 53% – 31%.
• In Missouri, as if that election is not enough of a dumpster fire, independent John Wood claims to have collected and filed enough signatures on petitions to make the November ballot. It seems likely that this enhances the Democrats’ chances in this election, as Wood claims to be a lifelong Republican, but it’s hard to be certain. And it may not be enough. Especially with Trump’s endorsement of “ERIC”. On the other hand, the dumpster fire was damped down by the GOP when they selected relative-to-Eric-Greitens moderate and current Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt over Greitens, who came in third, and second place finisher Rep Vicky Hartzler (R-MO). Schmitt must still contend with the results of a bitter primary and the presence of Mr. Wood on the ballot. Meanwhile, Trudy Busch Valentine, who is politically inexperienced, a nurse, and heir to the Anheuser-Busch fortune, won the Democratic side of the Senate primary. The safe bet in this contest is Schmitt. A May poll from A-rated SurveyUSA showed Schmitt with a 13 point advantage over Valentine, but a lot has happened since then. We need a new poll.
• Is Senate Majority Leader Schumer’s decision to do a deal with Senator and Minority Leader McConnel (R-KY) in order to pass the Honoring Our PACT Act a mistake? After all, it seems to make a nice club for Democrats to use on Republicans. However, there are some problems with that reasoning. If it’s not passed, then veterans may choose to blame both sides, so in this way the Democrats get some extra points; and not many actual Republican candidates in the Senate voted No, maybe two by my informal count, so its usefulness was somewhat problematic. I think Schumer has simply wrung a few more drops from the rag.
• Wisconsin incumbent Ron Johnson (R) either knows more than I do about the electorate, or is committing political suicide-by-voter. From Madison.com: Saying programs like Social Security and Medicare suffer from improper oversight, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson on Tuesday called for turning every government program into discretionary spending programs, meaning Congress would have to allocate funding for the programs each year. You don’t need to listen carefully, the shrieks from the AARP should be REALLY LOUD. It’ll be fascinating to see how the first poll of Johnson vs Barnes turns out.
• In Arizona Blake Masters, political novice, endorsee of the former President, and funded by Peter Thiel, won the GOP Senate primary and will be challenging incumbent Senator and retired astronaut (US Navy Captain, ret.) Mark Kelly (D). Arizona has been shifting from a strong Republican state to a more ambiguous status over the last five years, with Kelly winning a special election two years ago over the appointed Senator McSally (R), who exhibited a record and presence that had a lot in common with Senators Perdue (R-GA) and Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), both of whom also lost in that year. Masters seems emblematic of the next stage of the GOP toxic culture evolution, sending arrogant candidates into contests that are certain that, if they lose, the loss indicates cheating rather than simply losing, dependent on one or two “strong-men” rather than any personal appeal of their own – and perish the thought of a demonstrated personal competency in government! Even the anti-abortion waltz or anti-gun control jig is optional; one must snuffle up to the strong men of the party, an extreme example of what I’ve been predicting for years. Anyways. Waiting for the first poll, but I suspect independents will be so repelled by Masters that it’s Kelly in a walk. Kelly was thought to be vulnerable, so this may be another dodged meteorite by the Democrats. Sorry ’bout that.
• The biggest news out of the August 2nd primaries was Kansas’ voters rejection of a proposed state Constitutional Amendment to permit the Kansas legislature to ban abortion in some form, as I discussed here. Kansas is considered to be safely Republican, despite the Governor being a Democrat, so this rejection is a surprise – a 20 point surprise. Adding to the significance, kos of Daily Kos has some new information, although he doesn’t source it: “That means at least 75,000 Republicans voted no, plus the overwhelmingly majority of the 160,000 voters who came to vote only on this amendment and didn’t vote in either party’s primary.” There are two facets here, the first being that voters will come out simply to vote against threats to their (or their partners’) abortion rights, and secondly that a good portion of the moderate-to-conservative base resent the loss of those rights. In the latter case, this may result in a failure to vote for a candidate, or even switching a vote to an opponent or using the write-in option. While Republican pundits, as well as candidates such as Senator Johnson (R-WI) and Adam Laxalt (R-NV), have been trying to claim the Dobbs decision overturning Roe will have little impact in November (see the Daily Kos link, above), it appears that every election featuring a fervently anti-abortion candidate will be impacted, just as every left-leaning pundit, and many independent pundits like myself, suspected. The conservative tendency towards an epistemic bubble, as well as a fixation on improper metrics (the Justice Thomas mistake, to coin a phrase), seems to be leading them not towards victory in November, but a shocking failure against a bumbling Democratic Party that still has not addressed its failures in managing the transgender issue.

Previous irreligious thoughts regarding the election here.

What? More news?

• Professor Richardson reminds me that Senator Grassley (R-IA) made noises about presiding over the counting of Electoral Votes on January 5th, 2020, and thus replacing VP Mike Pence, who had already made clear that he had no intention in participating in the former President’s alleged illegal scheme to stop the counting of the Electoral votes. This was later walked back by Grassley’s staff. Why is this important? His opponent in this year’s election, Mike Franken, might be well advised to use this information to tie Grassley to the disgraced former President, who is taking destructive body blows from the House investigating committee. If Grassley is successfully associated with a scheme to overturn a democratic and fair election, Iowa voters may decide they’ve had enough of Grassley.
• The release of the report LOST, NOT STOLEN: The Conservative Case that Trump Lost and Biden Won the 2020 Presidential Election, by various main-line conservatives who exhaustively analyze and reject all the Trumpian claims concerning the 2020 Presidential election, may or may not have an impact on the Senate elections featuring Trump allies.
• Yay, Nevada has a poll: Senator Cortez Masto (D) leads challenger Adam Laxalt (R), 44-41, with 6 points more planning to vote independent, and 9% are undecided. This is an Emerson College Polling result; FiveThirtyEight considers Emerson College Polling to be an A- outfit. This lead seems precarious.
• Yay, Washington has a poll, too: Senator Murray (D) leads challenger Tiffany Smiley (R) by 18 points, according to SurveyUSA. This pollster gets an ‘A’ grade from FiveThirtyEight. Smiley has quite the hill to climb. Interestingly, she rates as a moderate, at least according to By The Issues (see Washington link, above), so I’m not sure if the far-right extremists refuse to vote for her, and/or if the independents are so disgusted with the Republicans that she’s catching the blowback.
• Georgia continues to get lots of coverage: the Georgia AARP conducted a poll showing incumbent Senator Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker by three points, 50-47. Those are high numbers for this early in the race. I have no idea if Georgia AARP polling is respectable or not.
• I somehow missed that newcomer Natalie James (D) won the Democratic primary and thus the right to challenge incumbent Senator John Boozman (R) in Arkansas. No polls noted as of yet, so no new drama.
• In Iowa, a Des Moines Register/MediaCom poll gives incumbent Senator Grassley (R) an eight point lead, leaving challenger Michael Franken (D) quite a hill to climb. However, FiveThirtyEight admits to no knowledge concerning this pollster, so it’s difficult to guess as to its accuracy. Franken’s challenge is certainly less than Grassley’s 35 point average victory margin.
• Finally, my current summary of seats in danger. Democrats: Senator Masto in Nevada may be the most in peril, with a 3 point lead over Adam Laxalt, although Warnock of Georgia may or may not be in trouble, and a few Democrats remain unknowns due to unconcluded GOP primaries, such as Kelly of Arizona. Republican seats in danger or worse: Pennsylvania (incumbent retiring), Ohio (incumbent retiring), North Carolina (incumbent retiring), Johnson of Wisconsin, maybe even Lee of Utah, shockingly Missouri (incumbent retiring), and Iowa, as Senator Grassley may only be up by five – eight points and has potentially very bad news looming on the horizon.

Previous, old, tattered updates here.

aNow that the primaries are half finished and mostly tabulated and decided – for those not paying attention, Rep Cawthorn (R-NC), a member of what I’ll informally call the Young Right-Wing Crazies Caucus, was successfully primaried by state Sen. Chuck Edwards (R-NC), despite a late endorsement from former President Trump – an overview of the upcoming elections to the Senate seems appropriate.

For those just rising from their stone couches, the Senate is split 50-50, with VP Kamala Harris (D) providing the deciding vote when necessary, which is reportedly quite often. The Democrats, who have the advantage of defending only 14 seats to the Republicans’ 21, and of facing a Party from which an attempted insurrection was sparked, and which then failed to condemn it, would in normal times be heavily favored. However, their own missteps may be crippling them.

Let’s start with brief discussions of possible factors, nation-wide, in this election cycle.

Inflation is a favorite topic of right-wing pundits. At 8% or so, it sounds terrible, although I think the Turks would swoon to have such an inflation rate, seeing as their’s is apparently over 70%, although I wonder at interpreting the source article.  On sober assessment, much of inflation, particularly of fossil fuels, is owed to Putin’s War (the invasion of Ukraine by Russia), but often blamed on the Biden Administration.

And don’t be fooled by claims that the United States is “energy independent.” Our fossil fuel companies are, truthfully, international companies hooked into an efficient international transit industry for a fungible product. An impact in one part of the world, such as Europe cutting off Russian oil supplies, will inevitably ripple all through that network. We produce and export more fossil fuel than we import, it’s true, but that doesn’t isolate us from price impacts.

Lack of achievement, traceable to Republican refusal to even permit debate on legislation that is not trivial nor Ukrainian aid, makes it hard for individual Senators to distinguish themselves in the area of achievements. Some, like Senator Cruz (R-TX), have learned how to run their mouths and distinguish themselves that way, but, given the low quality of his analysis and rhetoric, it’s hardly impressive.

The Afghanistan withdrawal, which left thirteen Americans dead, as mandated by former President Trump, may have some impact. While, on analysis, it’s difficult to see how President Biden could have changed his reaction without violating treaties signed by the former President, most Americans saw chaos, rather than an amazingly efficient withdrawal. While Senators had little to nothing to do with the incident, it may impact some contests.

Gun-related homicides, of which the Buffalo, NY, and Uvalde, TX massacres are leading examples, and the weak or, in at least one instance, utterly incoherent Republican responses, may influence voters who are also parents.

The sexual assault scandal of the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC) may have an effect on the voting patterns of a group that has been conservative for decades. While the evangelical proportion of the electorate has been shrinking for much of that time, they’ve been a potent voting bloc throughout the South.

But will this continue? The revelation that the SBC has been suppressing reports of sexual assaults by member pastors, not been disciplining those pastors effectively, nor reporting them to the police, and not supporting the victims, may shake the evangelicals to their roots. After all, it’s been these same pastors and leaders who’ve led the charge, mostly surreptitiously, but even overtly, against those evil, God-forsaken liberals. The realization that they’ve been mislead in this area may lead to reevaluations in all areas, even including abortion.

Might the bloc fracture and begin evaluating the political leadership potential of liberals? Some evangelicals, while remaining in the sect, may vote Democratic for the first time in their lives.

Political mismanagement by the Democrats tends to have more impact than the same by the Republicans, perhaps because Democrats of the far left are more often advocates for social change in a nation that is probably best described as center-right.

But advocates is a weak word these days. As I’ve noted before, the far left has shown a thread of autocracy in their approach to, ahem, advocacy, perhaps most notably in their utter botch and continued disregard for taking responsibility in the management of the transgender issue. Note that I speak extremely precisely here: I am not addressing the issue of transgenderism itself, but the political management of it. Its sudden appearance in Federal regulations, sans discussion and debate, with an autocratic flare, may be the deciding factor in why the Democrats are not expected to do well this November. If this seems nonsensical, compare to the discussions and debates concerning gay marriage, which began in 1992. Gay marriage was legalized nation-wide in 2015, meaning we had some 23 years of debate and discussion first. Was there equivalent debate of transgender issues? So far as I and others can tell, there was none. And that’s a serious abrogation of the liberal democracy model, which is far more important than most realize.

But other issues come under this heading: the disastrous Defund the police! slogan, since discarded and repudiated by moderate elements of the Democrats, but not all of the far-left; advocacy for Modern Monetary Theory, which, to most folks, including me, sounds like wishful thinking nonsense; ill-advised use of terminology that sounds much like socialism to new immigrant-citizens adverse to socialism, such as Cubans and Venezuelans; and attacks, both rhetorical and real, on historical figures revered by most Americans, such as George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, et al, without regard to historical context and, in some cases, simple historical facts.

I think these all unsettle independent voters who might otherwise be inclined to vote for the Democrats. This, despite the comparison of a thread of autocracy to the Republican Party’s blanket of autocracy.

I calls them as I sees them.

The January 6th Insurrection investigation, which I think is the great wildcard of the election, has had its first television appearance. This gives the independents a chance to learn just what transpired on the eponymous date. If they are paying attention, and don’t treat this as just more entertainment or settling of political grudges, this may change the balance of some races; it’s even possible that a Trump endorsement may go from a much sought after political fob to an anchor hanging from the necks of those who’ve received it.

But that still remains to be seen.

Many of these issues will doom the Democrats to not hold onto a 50-50 split Senate, which VP Harris tips towards the Democrats, or the House of Representatives.

Or so goes the common wisdom.

On the other hand, Senator McConnell, leader of the GOP in the Senate, has to, and does, worry about the quality of the Republican candidates, who tend to be fourth-raters with extremist views, and about the base, who think competency means corrupt, and moderation and humility is not better than arrogance and extremism. Such views do not impress most independents, who are the pivot of the election. Nominating an abortion extremist, or someone with bizarre views on life such as this guy, or a 2^nd Amendment absolutist, will not go over well with independents who are otherwise looking for reasonable alternatives to Democrats.

Is it an opportunity for a new third party? That’s a tough, tough sell, but the presence of Senators Sanders (I-VT) and King (I-ME) in the Senate suggests it’s not impossible for voters to think outside the box. Jennifer Rubin of WaPo thinks the promisingly named Moderate Party has a chance. I could see Evan McMullin and many other former GOP members joining such a party, along with some conservative Democrats. But it’s almost certainly too late for this election cycle.

So with no further ado, here’s my mini-analyses of the 2022 Senate contests.

Index

| Alabama | Alaska | Arizona | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Florida | Georgia | Hawaii | Idaho | Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Kansas | Kentucky | Louisiana | Maryland | Missouri | Nevada | New Hampshire | New York | North Carolina | North Dakota | Ohio | Oklahoma | Oregon | Pennsylvania | South Carolina | South Dakota | Utah | Vermont | Washington | Wisconsin |

Alabama

Long time member of the Senate Richard Shelby (R) is retiring at the end of the 2022 term, but this is Alabama and hardly seems a pickup opportunity for the Democrats.

Except, this is  the Alabama GOP, the same Alabama GOP that nominated Judge Roy Moore for a special election to fill an empty Senate seat in 2018, and thereby handed that Senate seat to Doug Jones (D), who subsequently lost it to Tommy Tuberville (R), which may be another illustration of the state of the Alabama citizenry.

Primaries have been held, with now-Trump-endorsed Katie Britt and Rep, and former Trump endorsee, Mo Brooks making it to the runoff. Neither seem to have the scandal necessary to gives the Democrats a chance, although Brooks is slightly entangled in the January 6th insurrection imbroglio. Were he to win the runoff, and then the January 6th committee reveal some gross misconduct on his part, it might be enough to make him vulnerable, if GOP voters were to stay away in disgust. If if if, eh?

Among the Democrats, Will Boyd has won the primary overwhelmingly. His electoral experience is confined to losing campaigns, which should come as no surprise in Alabama; otherwise, he appears to be a college denizen, having a number of academic degrees, in engineering as well as theology. Will that be good enough?

Looks for the Republicans to retain this seat, absent a major scandal.

Alaska

Alaska is using an unusual jungle primary from which the top four vote-getters progress to the general election.

But let’s be honest. The incumbent is Senator Lisa Murkowski (R), and this is Murkowski-land, as her father also served as an Alaskan Senator and Governor. The far-right of the Alaska GOP may hate her, they may not endorse her, Trump may see red every time he hears her name, but she won as a write-in candidate in 2010 and could probably do the same again this time around.

The Republicans will retain this seat, as the Democrats are not running a candidate and have endorsed Murkowski, and I don’t think it’s a bizarre ploy. The other Republican candidates are simply far more extreme than the incumbent, and they’d rather see her back in the Senate than one of her competitors. Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY) is supporting her in the face of Trump’s campaign to be rid of her.

She’s the favorite.

Arizona

The incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (D), winner of the special election to replace Senator McCain (R) after his death, faces his first traditional election. He has no primary opponents, so he’s been free to campaign against whoever the GOP has in the primaries.

But he suffers from lack of accomplishments, a common affliction in this age of team politics. If he’s done anything in the Senate, it’s escaped my admittedly scanty notice.

But does that leave the door open in purple Arizona? The primary to select his opponent from the GOP has not yet occurred, and to my eye there is no projected winner. State Attorney General Mark Brnovich, a civil engineer with no electoral history by the name of Jim Lamon, and similarly inexperienced, but endorsed by former President Trump’s and financed by billionaire Peter Thiel, Blake Masters are on offer.

Senator Kelly, outside of his political career, had careers as an astronaut and a Navy captain, which may serve him well in this race; his two of his three potential opponents do not seem to have much more to point at than adherence to the former President, and Brnovich is scorned by the same former President.

If Kelly can persuade Arizona independents that he’s not a leftist radical, he should be able to win. Communications is critical for victory.

Arkansas

Senator John Boozman (R) is up for his second reelection, or third term, as Senator from a State that, as of now, has a Federal delegation made up of two Republican Senators and four Republican Representatives. He’s endorsed by former President Trump.

No drama? Wrong.

Primary rival Jake Bequette may be pushing Boozman, and while I’ve found nothing really on his positions, he’s reported to take far-right positions. However, Boozman’s On The Issues summary shows him to the right of Bequette as a far-right extremist himself, and in any case, Boozman prevailed in the May 24th primary.

What does this mean? Given that some GOP voters refuse to vote for primary rivals when their favorite loses, this might give a strong Democrat a chance to take the seat. However, as this article implicitly notes, the Democratic opposition is weak. A possible opportunity for the Democrats, thrown away.

California

Senator Alex Padilla (D), who was appointed to take the place of Senator Harris (D) when the latter won the VP slot of the United States in 2021, is now gunning for outright election. The Republican nominee is Mark Meuser, who advanced via the non-partisan primary, and …

… has criticized California’s response to the coronavirus pandemic and even went so far as to file more than 20 lawsuits against Gov. Gavin Newsom for his emergency restrictions.” [Fox40]

I’ve been unable to find an On The Issues entry for Meuser.

Unless a black swan flies overhead, it’s Padilla all the way, despite his lack of obvious accomplishments during his time in the Senate.

Colorado

Senator Michael Bennet (D) is running for reelection for a second time. In 2016 he gained 50% of the vote, defeating Republican Darryl Glenn by 6+ points. Can he do it again? There’s no obvious reasons why not. He faces no primary opponents, Biden won the state by 13 points, and none of the names in the Republican primary ring a bell, much less strike fear in the hearts of liberals, at least not that I have heard.

That said, American politics is full of upsets and surprises. Both Bennet and Biden need to get on their campaign horses and get the message out.

Connecticut

Senator Richard Bloomenthal Blumenthal (D) will be defending his seat, but not against primary opponents. And how do his Republican opponents look?

The first snapshot of Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race shows Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a two-term Democrat, with leads ranging from 10 points to 16 points in matchups with Republicans Themis Klarides, Peter Lumaj and Leora Levy. [MSN]

Unless something unforeseen occurs, Bloomenthal Blumenthal should be reelected.

Florida

The race in Florida, featuring incumbent Senator Marco Rubio (R) vs, in all likelihood, Rep Val Demings (D), should be one of the hotter races in the Senate this year. The Democratic propaganda line has repeatedly claimed that Demings is ahead or, at least, within striking distance of the two-term, three-term wannabe, incumbent.

And, quite honestly, to my independent ear, Rubio has seemed woefully out of touch, even somewhat incoherent, recently. When the Miami Heat of the NBA included an announcement during the game following the school massacre in Uvalde, TX, urging fans to call on their local and Federal representatives to pass “common-sense gun laws,” Rubio’s response was deeply flawed, for those who cared to soberly think:

The @NBA doesn’t like to talk about the billions they make from a China that enslaves Uyghur Muslims and harvests their organs

But they have no problem politicizing a horrific tragedy in America pic.twitter.com/VUXpOBbw7j

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) May 26, 2022

Designed to enrage, rather than provoke discussion, Rubio’s attempt to hide behind the stage magician’s magic hand is not impressive to my mind.

But I don’t live in Florida. Concerning Demings, I’ve heard little. Some polls are out, such as this one. It may depend on how well Democrats can turn out the vote.

Georgia

Georgia’s Senatorial race is decidedly one of the most interesting races to analyze. The Democratic incumbent and winner of a special election in 2020, Senator and Rev Raphael Warnock, pastor of the very church at which MLK, Jr. preached, will face recent overwhelming winner of the GOP primary, former NFL star (and Minnesota Viking) Herschel Walker.

First, it’s worth noting that former President Trump is not urging the MAGA crowd not to vote, so that drag on the Republican candidate is not present, unlike when Warnock won the special election to initially fill the seat in 2020.

Warnock has been accused of various ill-doings, none of which seem to stick, so they might be just the usual political mud flinging. He doesn’t appear to have any particular Senatorial accomplishments to which to point, since political polarization brought on by GOP toxic team politics, as well as Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) steadfast insistence of never permitting a debate on most legislation, unless it’s trivial or aid to Ukraine, makes such accomplishments quite the trick to achieve. Still, a man of the cloth should hold some sway over Georgia independents.

Walker has his share of negative reports as a burden as well: accusations of domestic terrorism by an ex-wife, for which Walker claims he’s “accountable;” in his business dealings, he apparently tends to claim more than he actually does, and has been associated with ethically questionable businesses – or even businesses that don’t exist. He’s also acknowledged mental illness, a brave thing to do.

But that’s the past, and many conservative voters will give him a pass for past mistakes. The United States loves a good, redemptive story. So do I. But how about today?

Today, it’s not clear that he’s even functional. His response to the Uvalde, TX school massacre wasn’t evasive, it didn’t cling to the magic of owning a gun, it wasn’t like any other Republican response.

It was utter gibberish, and so was his followup.

And, yet, polls show Warnock and Walker neck and neck, so far as I can make out.

Raw Story has a report from prior to the primary that claimed Georgia GOP officials were terrified that Walker would win the primary, thus dooming their hopes to retake Warnock’s seat. How do they feel now, with Walker unable to meet the challenge of even saying “Prayers and thoughts?” Or will the magic of football dominate in Georgia, as it did in the Alabama election of former coach Tommy Tuberville (R) in 2020?

The general election in Georgia will say a lot as to the seriousness of the electorate.

Hawaii

Democratic Senator Brian Schatz will be running for reelection, having been appointed to his seat in 2012, and winning outright election in 2016 … by 51 points.

There seems little to worry Schatz in his reelection bid.

Idaho

Much like the Hawaii race, incumbent Idaho Senator Mike Crapo (R), recent winner of his primary, seems to have an assured reelection, having won his previous election in 2016 by 39 points.

Illinois

Senator Duckworth (D) will be defending her seat for the first time, having won in 2016 by 15 points, upsetting incumbent Mark Kirk (R). I have not found any excitement in press coverage concerning Senator Duckworth, and she lacks primary opponents, while the Republican collection of candidates do not appear to be remarkable. The primary is June 28, which may clarify the race’s points of interest, or it may simply clarify who Duckworth will be thumping.

Indiana

Deep in Republican land, Senator Todd Young (R) is defending his seat against Mayor Thomas McDermott, Jr. (D). Young won this then-open seat in 2016 by just less than ten points, which may be misleading as he beat the son of a former Senator, Evan Bayh, son of Birch Bayh. Does McDermott have the same name recognition, being the mayor of Hammond, IN, for 18 years? I’ve not found any polls saying so, or measuring the race. The Cook Political Report says Young is outpacing McDermott in fund-raising. And, it’s Indiana.

I figure it’s Young all the way until I hear otherwise.

Iowa

Senator Grassley (R), all 88 years of him, is running for reelection. He was challenged in the primary by State Senator Jim Carlin (R), who seemed optimistic that Grassley is vulnerable, but he failed.

But Carlin may be right. As I’ve noted before, Senator Grassley has sadly devolved into either dementia or just simple mendacity. Iowans, like most American voters, like honesty in their candidates, and if Grassley cannot manage honesty then he may be ousted.

The Democrats surprisingly passed over former Rep Abby Finkenauer (D-IA) to select inexperienced retired Admiral Mike Franken, who does have some experience from working in Senator Ted Kennedy’s (D) office. Perhaps Iowans will respond well to someone with a military background. Grassley is an ally of the former President, so if Trump finds himself in legal trouble, it could reflect poorly on Senator Grassley.

But I sense this is one of those unexpected pickup opportunities that will somehow slip out of the Democrats’ hands.

Kansas

Incumbent Jerry Moran (R) is being primaried by something of an oddity: Joan Farr, who is also running for Senator from the state of Oklahoma.

Yeah, no kidding.

She’s also written a book, How to Run for Office as an Independent Candidate – on very little $$!, so I have to wonder if this is a stunt.

The Kansas primary is on August 2, but I doubt that Kansas is likely to send a Democrat to the Senate unless Moran becomes as electorally repulsive as Kris Kobach (R-KA), who is notorious for losing the 2018 Kansas governor’s race to Democrat and then-State Senator Laura Kelly, thus once again proving Kansans do have a limited appetite for extremist Republicans, having previously rejected, in 2017, then-Governor Brownback’s (R-KA) radical tax reduction plan by replacing his legislative allies with moderate Republicans and Democrats, and then revoking his plan, much to his horror.

Senator Moran’s (R-KS) On The Issues summary.

But by the handiest measure of extremism, Moran’s TrumpScore, he is not particularly extremist. Absent a disastrous scandal, and in view of the fact that Moran won election in 2016 by 30 points, look for Moran to win reelection. His On The Issues summary, though, shows more of an extremist outlook, and is more complete than an arbitrary list of votes.

Still, look for the Democratic challenger to have an uphill climb.

Kentucky

Incumbent Rand Paul (R) won in 2016 by nearly 14 points, and in Republican Kentucky that might be the end of the story.

But if I were a Rand Paul partisan, I might have some concerns.

First, the Democratic nominee is former State Senator Charles Booker, who ran a close second in the Democratic primary in 2020 to challenge Senator McConnell, and is considered a well-known and popular Democrat in Kentucky.

Second, Senator Paul has arguably been acting erratically and against the interests of the United States and Kentucky for years, with his latest cause being the delay of assistance to Ukraine in Putin’s War; indeed, it almost appears that Paul is a Putin partisan. And Americans have little patience with traitors.

Now, it is true that Paul is emblematic of the amateur that is semi-revered in Republican politics. A graduate of Duke Medical School, beginning in 1999 he was certified as an ophthalmologist by an organization of his own creation, the NBO, which was also run by Paul, his wife, and his father-in-law. This sounds very much DIY and brave and all that rot, but is obviously open to fraud. In fact, an unfavorable reading of the cited article suggests a certain petulance on his part.

In any case, a vigorous and insightful campaign by Booker has the potential to yield a surprise for the Democrats. Paul is hardly an impregnable political force. He’s really more of a goof. The question is whether or not Kentuckians realize that.

My money says they don’t.

Louisiana

Deep in Republican land, Senator John Kennedy (R) is popular and appears to not be facing any opponents of stature from either Party. Expect another six years of the smarmy guy from Louisiana.

Maryland

Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen’s future is unclear, at least to me. If he were challenged by Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R), at least some polls have suggested he would lose. However, the Republican effort to recruit Hogan to run have failed, leaving behind a bunch of names with which I’ve no familiarity.

Van Hollen, having won in 2016 in an open seat contest by 25 points, has to be the presumptive favorite.

Missouri

Missouri’s Senator Roy Blunt (R) is retiring after this Congress, which puts his seat up for grabs. In normal times, Blunt would be succeeded by another Republican, perhaps one of his staff members.

This isn’t normal times.

As Kansas (governor) and Alabama (senator) have demonstrated in recent years, if the GOP nominates a sufficiently repulsive personality, such as extremist Kris Kobach, or alleged sexual predator Judge Roy Moore, moderate conservative voters will walk away and give the seat to the Democrats. Candidate and former Governor Eric Greitens (R), who was forced to resign for his alleged sins, may fit the profile, as he was accused of sexual assault of a woman, not his wife, who was tied up in his basement at the time. He claimed it was a consensual encounter, but resigned anyways.

And now he’s a leading contender for the GOP nomination.

Past behavior is no guarantee of future behaviors, of course. Missouri voters may be convinced the accusations, which also included campaign finance irregularities, were all a political scam, and vote him into the Senate.

I must say, not being a fan of the other Missouri Senator, Josh Hawley (R), that’d make quite a pair chewing up Senator salary funds.

But if the Democrats can field a strong contender, this may turn into quite a race. The problem is that phrase: strong contender.

The primary is August 2, and it could be quite interesting.

Nevada

Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is the incumbent and is considered to be in some danger of losing her seat to whoever wins the Republican primary, which recent polls suggest will be Adam Laxalt, a former Nevada Attorney General; the primary is this Tuesday. However, her position with the Latino community appears strong, and general polls suggest a great deal of indecision.

Conventional wisdom has Masto losing, but I suspect, absent the black swan of doom, Masto will win this with surprising ease.

New Hampshire

The incumbent is Democrat and Senator Maggie Hassan. In her 2016 race, she upset incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) by .14%, a painfully close race. Nor is New Hampshire a traditional Democratic stronghold.

And, finally, opinion is mixed. Crowd Wisdom, which is unfamiliar to me, believes Hassan is well-positioned to win reelection; conservative National Review, in an older article, thinks she’s in trouble. With the primary in September, Hassan’s opponent is undetermined.

We’ll just have to wait to see if the Republicans pick a strong or weak candidate.

But it must be noted in that popular Governor Sununu (R-NH), when asked to run for the Senate, declined the opportunity. Rumor suggests he sees little opportunity in the Senate for accomplishment, which is real pushback on the strategy of Senator McConnell.

This is a gift to the Democrats. Can they capitalize?

New York

Incumbent Senator and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D) has been facing the Mountain of GOP intransigence, the Lake of Manchin and Sinema Obtuseness, and the Abyss of Biden clumsiness, but he’s running again anyways. Weaker men would call it a career.

On the other hand, and hand in hand with Speaker of the House Pelosi (D-CA), they defeated former President Trump’s desperate attempts to force the government into bankruptcy. Schumer has a lot of good to point at.

So his path to remain in his seat includes reminding independents of his defeat of the former President, the insuperable obstacles he’s faced as Majority Leader, and what happens if he’s replaced by a Republican. Fortunately, none of his primary or general election opponents seem to have much for name recognition, and New York is generally Democratic for state-wide campaigns. Look for Schumer to retain his seat.

North Carolina

In purplish North Carolina incumbent Richard Burr (R) is vacating his seat after accusations that he may have violated ethics rules concerning stock trades made with privileged information. As the primary has come and gone, we know that the two major party candidates are former State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley (D), who easily won her primary, and Rep Ted Budd (R), who won the GOP nomination in a come from behind overwhelming victory, following endorsement by former President Trump.

Which way to bet? Democrat Beasley definitely has a hill to climb, and the few polls out so far have varying results, from a 2 point mound to an 8 point ugly hill. But there’s still a few months for the campaigns to work their respective magics.

The other two hinges of this race may also be that of current President Biden and former President Trump. If Biden sharpens his message and his performance, independent North Carolina voters may decide to vote for Beasley as a proxy for Biden. If Biden’s Administration continues to struggle with domestic issues and fails to communicate its more-than-solid performance regarding Putin’s War, then North Carolina independents may hold their noses and vote for the Trump-endorsed Budd. Even disaffected voters for the losers of the primary – primarily former Gov Pat McCrory (R) – may vote for Budd.

But if Trump comes out of the January 6th Insurrection hearings that are currently being televised smelling like an arrogant autocrat, independent North Carolina voters may take their fury out on the Republicans by voting for Beasley.

Time will tell.

North Dakota

It’s North Dakota. Have North Dakotans become disaffected with the Republican Party when I wasn’t looking?

No.

It’s incumbent John Hoeven (R) in a walk. Assuming he survives the upcoming primary.

Ohio

Incumbent Rob Portman (R) is retiring from the Senate, and the major parties are putting forth Rep Tim Ryan (D) and J. D. Vance (R), retired Marine, lawyer and author of Hillbilly Elegy.

J. D. Vance’s On The Issues summary.

Vance has not held elective office, but he has worked for Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) and state Senator Bob Schuler (R-OH), so he at least knows what’s going on. He won the party primary with merely 31.3% of the GOP vote, so there may be some question as to whether the Josh Mandell partisans, his closest rival with 24.3% of the vote, will be willing to vote for Vance, or if the battle was bitter enough to outrage them. Balancing this is an endorsement, in April, of Vance by former President Trump. However, an endorsee who only won a plurality of the vote does raise some questions about the candidate’s overall popularity with the GOP. Complicating the question is the fact that Vance transitioned from a Never Trumper to a Trump sycophant, suggesting his lust for power influences his judgment, and that he’s a right-wing extremist. The On The Issues summary of his positions, to your right, reinforces that impression.

Rep Ryan (D) is completing his twentieth year as a member of the House of Representatives, albeit for two different Ohio districts. His length of service suggests he knows how to get elected in a reddish state, although gerrymandering may also be at work here. However, he’s more than a bit to the left of moderate, as can be seen to the left.

The only poll I’ve found so far suggests Vance is up by 2 points, which is within the margin of error. In an opinion piece by Jennifer Rubin of WaPo, she quotes Matt Bennett:

Matt Bennett, of the moderate think tank Third Way, explains: “Voters in places like Ohio will have a clear choice in the Senate race: a principled moderate who has eschewed the radicals in his own party and is entirely focused on making life better for the people of the state or a completely phony proto-populist who decided that the only way to win high office as a Republican is to bend the knee to Donald Trump, lie constantly, and focus on culture war tropes and racist nonsense.”

Not exactly a nuanced, neutral view – or Vance is one mighty scumbag.

Look for this to be one of the big battlegrounds of the 2022 Senate cycle.

Oklahoma

The incumbent is James Lankford (R), who won his 2016 race by 43.1 points. He’s being primaried, but the opponents do not appear to be a serious threat, and neither do the Democrats.

It’s Oklahoma. It’ll be Senator Lankford, again, in 12 months, barring a black swan scandal.

But it’s a two-fer! Long-time Senator James Inhofe (R) will retire prior to the end of his current term, on the day that new Senators are sworn in; the special election will be held on November 8, 2022, Election Day.

The parties are putting forth former Rep Kendra Horn (D), who lost to Stephanie Bice (R) in her reelection bid in 2020, and is the default winner in the primary, while there’s a host of GOP candidates awaiting the late June primary balloting, chief among them former EPA Administrator and entrant in the Most Scandals Ever contest Scott Pruitt, and Rep Markwayne Mullin, perhaps best known for his desperate attempts to gain former President Trump’s endorsement. With a TrumpScore of 93%, he may not be sycophantic enough to overcome Pruitt’s service to the former President.

But it’s more than likely that either one of them will beat Horn in highly conservative Oklahoma. Unless the former President does, in fact, fall from grace in the near future.

Oregon

Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) has had 26 years in the US Senate, and he’s gunning for another six years. In 2016 he won reelection by an overwhelming 23 points. Do have the Republicans have a selection which will appeal to the power-holding independents?

I don’t think so. The winner of the GOP primary is Jo Rae Perkins, who won with only 33% of the primary voters, indicating dissension in the ranks. Her electoral experience consists of running for and failing to win elective office. Most importantly, her On The Issues chart, to the reader’s right, indicates a far-right partisan unlikely to appeal to independents.

Absent the black swan, this is incumbent Wyden’s in a walk.

Pennsylvania

Toomey may not have had the mouth of Senator Cruz, but he’s arguably farther right than the most disliked member of the Senate.

The race for the open seat of retiring far-right Senator Pat Toomey (R) is possibly the most intriguing and damaged competition of the 2022 races for Federal seats, including the House seats. Indeed, it’s damn near a soap opera.

The Republicans opened with a field led by the Trump-endorsed and prominent PA Republican Sean Parnell, who was defeated in 2020 for an open House seat in a Republican-leaning district by moderate Democrat Conor Lamb. Probably due to the endorsement, Parnell’s future looked promising, but on or around Nov 23, 2021, he withdrew from the race entirely after losing custody of his children to his estranged wife after being accused of hurting both wife and children, which he denied.

Mehment Oz’s On The Issues summary.

With a prime member of the PA GOP’s Steel Curtain suddenly out of the running, Dr. Mehmet Oz, also known as TV’s Dr. Oz, a surgeon who dispenses medical advice on television, joined the race a few days later. Does he have a residence in Pennsylvania? He does in a few other States, but not Pennsylvania. He holds dual citizenship with the USA and Turkey, has been accused multiple times, credibly, of dispensing inferior medical advice, as well as flip-flopping on positions. Nor is he a moderate that would appeal to moderates, as his On The Issues summary, to the left, indicates. I do have to wonder how accurate it is, though, as he has no prior elective experience, only statements.

But he’s not the only opportunist, as David McCormick also joined the fray in January of 2022. A Wall Street inhabitant, he also has a military background and served in positions in government.

But wait, there’s more! As the primary date neared, comparative unknown Kathy Barnette, breathing far-right fire, surged in the polls and seemed to be positioning herself to slide by the two leaders, Oz and McCormick, by using her ideological appeal and even a diss of the former President. That latter tactic may have been a mistake.

In the Republican primary showdown, the counts, recounts, and litigation took quite a while to resolve, but Dr. Oz slipped past McCormick by a mere 951 votes in the end. Barnette faded badly, but at least she didn’t start screaming about vote rigging, unlike this defeated candidate in Arizona.

Among the Democrats, the contest counted four entrants in the end, but the real contest was expected to be between the aforementioned Rep Conor Lamb, coming off of one giant-killing in 2020, and Lt. Governor John Fetterman, who, at 6′ 9″ tall, is a credible giant, bald, and covered in tatoos.

But I think anyone who has seen Fetterman on stage or read his responses to Republicans over the years is well aware that he’s a charismatic individual who comes across as authentic, much like Jesse Ventura did during his successful run for the Minnesota Governor’s seat as an independent in 1998.

But there was more drama to come, as Fetterman ended up in the hospital just a few days before May 17, Primary Day in Pennsylvania. Initially reported as a mild stroke, brought on by ignoring medical advice, it turned out to be much more serious. Would that affect the primary?

Oh, it probably did, but Rep Lamb’s giant-killing ways still came to a stop with a surprising 32 point loss to the Lt. Governor.

But will Fetterman’s campaign’s decision to underplay his medical condition affect some voters? Some – maybe many – appreciate knowing medical details of their political representatives – even if FDR had polio and didn’t advertise it. That was an era when medical problems were far more common, and political candidates were expected to persevere and hope the divine would carry them through. That’s not today.

John Fetterman’s On The Issues summary.

Fetterman, unlike Oz, has relatively little to worry about in the scandal department, or at least so far as we know, unless Oz can somehow find a way to attack Fetterman’s support for fracking, a position which will make Democrats deeply uneasy, but will appeal to a certain class of Pennsylvanians. Oz would be wise to forget that target, because Oz will be the target of many unhappy revelations, at least for those who haven’t followed his career. Pennsylvania famously went for Biden by 1.17% in the 2020 Presidential election, and, even more importantly, far-right retiring Senator Toomey won in 2016 by only 1.5 points – against a relative unknown. If the Democrats had a better-known candidate in 2016, Toomey might have spent the last 5.5 years watching from the sidelines. Fetterman may be that candidate.

Fetterman’s health and opacity makes this pick a bit of a wildcard, but I still like Fetterman’s chances. Look for the Democrats to pick up this seat, especially if McCormick’s partisans were embittered losing to Mehmet Oz.

South Carolina

Incumbent Senator Tim Scott (R) is running again. Having won in 2016 by 23 points, and not stepped in any potholes since then, I expect to see Senator Scott in the Senate again a year from now.

South Dakota

Incumbent Senator John Thune (R) is running again. In 2022, he won by 43 points, and there’s little reason to believe the South Dakotan and high ranking Republican leader in the Senate, and who won 73+% of the votes in the GOP primary, won’t be victorious again come this November.

No matter how much the former President hates him.

Utah

In what would otherwise be considered another limp Republican state, incumbent Senator Mike Lee (R) is facing an actual credible challenge, not from the Democrats, but from independent Evan McMullin.

McMullin has not held elective office, but has worked as chief policy director for the House Republican Conference, a credit of, perhaps, dubious worth, given the tremendous mess the GOP has for most policy issues; prior to that, he was a CIA officer. He ran for President in 2016, and in Utah he hoovered up 21.5% of the vote, which I personally think is a marvelous result.

The incumbent, Mike Lee, still faces a primary, which does not appear to be much of a challenge, and then McMullin, who has been extraordinarily endorsed by the Democrats, and Lee will have their go. McMullin is definitely a conservative, but the sort that is a Never Trumper, while Senator Lee is an ally of the former President. Lee has certainly stuck his foot in his mouth a couple of times, exhibiting views that seem sophisticated and insightful, but they were neither, simply convenient to his defense of the former President and the policy positions of the Republicans. By being allegedly deceptive about his role in the January 6th riot, he’s angered his hometown media, namely The Salt Lake Tribune.

It’s Lee, but it’ll be close, close enough that bad news for Trump could see McMullin into the Senate.

Vermont

Democratic incumbent Senator Leahy is retiring at the end of this term, so it’s a free-for-all for this seat. The primary is August 9th. At present, the scant polls suggest Democratic Rep Peter Welch is in a commanding position, but there are still months to go.

But President Biden won Vermont by 35 points. I expect we’ll see a Democrat win this seat.

Washington

Tiffany Smiley’s On The Issues summary.

Long time incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray is running again. In 2016, she won by a commanding 18 points, but here in 2022 some sources are trying to talk up a challenge by Tiffany Smiley (R). Smiley’s a moderate, which suggests she may appeal to Washington independent voters, but Murray is a known and presumably comfortable quantity. The sources are, I think, wishful rather than realistic. This poll gives Murray a commanding lead.

Look for Murray to retain her seat.

But I think the real point of interest is that Washington uses a “top-two” primary system. All qualifying candidates, regardless of party affiliation, are listed on the primary ballot, and the top two vote-getters then move on to the general election. This has the potential to remove extremists, conservative and liberal, who are not palatable to the general voter, leaving at least one of the top two to be of a moderate mien; if there is no incumbent, then both may be moderates.

But it depends on a sufficient turnout. If Smiley is, in fact, promoted to the general election, that suggests that the far-right extremists, despite the racket they make, are only a small portion of the general conservative faction of the American electorate.

Wisconsin

Republican incumbent Ron Johnson (R) is running for reelection, and in so doing breaking a vow to only serve two terms. I don’t think that matters much to his partisans, and probably not to the Wisconsin electorate.

But it’s of a piece with the story of Senator Johnson. Over the last two or three years, he’s been slowly descending, in the eyes of this independent, into the depths of dementia or, at best, exceptionally poor judgement. He’s promoted vacuous, false claims of cures for Covid-19, crank conspiracy theories, election-denying attacks on our election system, ridiculous anti-Democrat memes, unjustified diminutions of the effects of what appears to be the imminent overturning of Roe v Wade, and generally seems to have a screw loose.

I’m not kidding. This isn’t vituperation; he is simply that bad.

Will he even survive the primary? There’s a long list of Republicans on the primary ballot, eager to take him down, and that suggests a widespread recognition that the Senator is a liability and not an asset in the US Senate. However, I have not found any polls for Johnson and his intra-party rivals.

Nor have I for the Democrats among themselves.

However, I have found a couple of polls of Johnson vs selected Democrats, namely Lt. Governor and former State Assemblyman Mandela Barnes, who comes out even, and former State Assemblyman Tom Nelson, who comes out with a 4 point advantage.

Johnson won reelection in 2016 by 3+ points, but this time around he has an extra burden to bear: the Wisconsin GOP. They have proven to be a pack of Trump sycophants and extremists, having wasted millions of dollars on recounts and incompetent, even infantile investigations, and demanded Wisconsin Speaker of the House Robin Vos revert the 2020 Presidential election results, which would be illegal, as Vos himself recognized. He was booed for telling the truth. All of these fourth-rater blunders have been well-advertised by an outraged Wisconsin media.

Between that and Johnson’s outright non-mainstream and irrational behaviors, it’s hard to see the independents voting him back to the Senate again. If the Democrats select a reasonably strong candidate and Johnson beats his rivals in the primary, I expect the Democrats to tip this state.

And that’s it. I’m too tired to count, but my impression is that, as one might expect given the imbalance in seats to defend, the Republicans have two-four more seats that may be taken by Democrats (or, in Utah, independent Evan McMullin) than do the Democrats have at risk. Worse yet, it’s hard to pick which Republican is at worst risk, the empty seat in Pennsylvania, Senator Johnson in Wisconsin, or even Senator Grassley in Iowa.

Months to go, scandals to come. I hope you enjoyed my analyses.

Tuesday I had my Covid-19 booster, and Wednesday has been miserable. Here’s the previous campaign update, back when I was fun and memorable.

The Polling Frightens Me, Help!, Ctd

Just after publishing my last update, I ran across “18 Reasons To Be Bullish About The Election,” by GoodNewsRoundup on Daily Kos, and their third reason is “Ignore the red wave polling.” Yeah, doesn’t really work with their title, but the information is still good, even if it’s not new, excepting the specifics. I encourage you to read it, even if the style of the progressives grates on your nerves. Money quote:

[A]n example: Yesterday I saw a diary here about a poll from American Greatness.  It was a PA poll that showed Harris up 4 in registered voters but down 1.5 to trump in likely voters.

That is odd.

I wasn’t the only one who thought that.  Aaron Astor (a professor at Maryville College) looked into it and the poll all but removed Philadelphia from the LV totals.

Weird!

Maybe a mistake?

Daniel Nichanian. Editor-in-chief and founder of @BoltsMag contacted the pollster to let them know about the mistake and IT WASNT A MISTAKE.

They claim that nearly the entire sample of registered voters from Philadelphia were unlikely to vote. (Despite 75% of them saying they were “very likely to vote.”)

Keep your eye on the raw data and not the predigested pap. Like I said, go out and vote! Encourage friends and family to vote. And remember, to quote former Governor Ventura (I-MN), This isn’t a horse race! It doesn’t matter that you voted for the winner or the loser, there are no points for voting on that basis. Negative points for misunderstanding democracy, really. Pick out the person who has the best character, because this is a character election, and vote for them. That’s how to do your best to ensure Democracy continues.

If you really need more reassurance, you can try this, also on Daily Kos.

And In Orbit Around …

• Maryland’s former Governor Hogan (R-MD), now the Republican Senate candidate, may have a scandal holding him back, according to Time. The last respectable poll for Maryland’s race for the open Senate seat emptied by retirement gave his opponent, Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), an eleven point advantage. The tea leaves look soggy for Hogan. Maybe he can busy himself rebuilding the Republican Party.
• The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) is giving Senator Casey (R-PA) of Pennsylvania a four point lead over challenger David McCormick (D-PA), 48%-44%. Given this pollster’s divergence from other polls, even with their prestigious position atop the FiveThirtyEight rankings, I’m inclined to see Casey’s lead as being 2 to 4 points larger.
• Holy smokes, Mississippi has a poll! Too bad it was sponsored by the Democratic challenger, Ty Pinkins (D-MI), and it isn’t a prestigious pollster, but is instead Change Research (1.4). It’s hard to say what their measurement of a mere five point lead for Senator Wicker (R-MI), 47%-42%, actually means. That is, what is that measurement’s relation to reality? Is Mr Pinkins that close? Does he have a chance of upsetting Senator Wicker? Or is it all nonsense? The Next Day: The results have been corrected on FiveThirtyEight to show Senator Wicker’s lead is 48%-35%, a more believable 13 point gap. I also notice the result links differ. This might explain the change:
  

  Voter Awareness Boosts Pinkins’ Numbers

  The survey reveals Roger Wicker initially leading by 13 points over Ty Pinkins. However, Wicker’s broader unfavorability rate stands at 36%, surpassing his 26% favorability. Conversely, Pinkins, while lesser-known, achieves a positive net favorability, 12% favorability against a 9% unfavorability.

  After voters read candidate biographies, the electoral gap narrows. Wicker’s support slightly increases to 50%, while Pinkins gains ground at 40%, reducing the gap to 10 points. By the final ballot, the gap closes further to just a 5-point striking distance, with Wicker at 47% and Pinkins at 42%.

  The problem, of course, is that handing out biographies at voting booths is probably illegal and fruitless. Pinkins needs to communicate how he differs from Wicker now. I think I shall disregard this poll. There are too many unknowns and it doesn’t taste right.

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (2.6) is giving Florida  Senator Scott (R-FL) a seven point lead over former Rep Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), 48%-41%. From the last Florida update, that puts Mason-Dixon solidly between a doubtful result from The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) of a nine point lead, and a result from equally prestigious Marist College (2.9) of a two point lead, or statistical dead heat, for the Senator. Who’s off and who’s on? Hard to say here. Everyone presumably has chops, so discarding the poll that is disliked isn’t really a viable option.
• Missouri challenger Lucas Kunce (D-MO) now has received the endorsement of both the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Kansas City Star, for whatever legacy media endorsements may be worth these days. Kunce’s campaign pulls back the paywall curtain on the former newspaper to quote the relevant editorial:
  

  … Hawley (who is running unopposed for the GOP nomination next month) adds to the reasons Missourians should help hold that line. From his political and personal culpability for the events of Jan. 6, 2021, to his insincere populist showboating on the Senate floor, to his outrageous recent defense of Christian nationalism, Hawley has been a frequently embarrassing senator for Missouri — and not an especially effective one. With recent polls showing Hawley with a single-digit lead over Kunce in a state Trump won by 16 points in 2020, Democrats may in fact have the opportunity for an upset here. They also have an opportunity to seat a senator the state could finally be proud of.

  That’s more or less a slap upside the head of Senator Hawley (R-MO). But it doesn’t mean Kunce will win. That’s up to the Missouri citizens.

• In Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) is continuing to maintain his small lead, according to the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs (2.2), 50%-46% over Rep Allred (D-TX).
  

  ---

  Presumably, this pollster doesn’t skew results, so Rep Allred needs to continue to get his message out there.

• On the last update, I noted Nebraska’s Senator Fischer (R-NE) and challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE) had pulled out competing polls by dubious pollsters and swung them at each other. It turns out Mr Osborn had another poll in his back pocket, and this measurement is far more impressive: SurveyUSA (2.8) is giving Osborn a 50%-44% lead, which is beyond the margin of error, or would be if SurveyUSA provided that detail.
  

  ---

  I’m finding these details interesting:

  Candidate	Republicans	Democrats	Independents
  Fischer	72%	4%	23%
  Osborn	22%	94%	69%

  Fischer has sprung leaks among both her fellow Republicans and the Independents, and Osborn is leading in both men and women with 50% of each, while Fischer is only getting 41% of women, and 47% of men. It appears Dobbs is having an effect in this race, although perhaps not of the magnitude I was generally hoping for.

• On the other hand, SurveyUSA (2.8) also surveyed for the Nebraska Senate special election, featuring appointed Senator Ricketts (R-NE) and challenger Preston Love, Jr (D-NE), and the Senator continues to lead, 53%-37%, by 16 points. The saddest part is that this is an improvement for Mr Love of two points.
• More evidence that Senator Cruz’s (R-TX) overall strategy of being an asshole isn’t working out for him comes from Steve Benen of Maddowblog:
  

  Public polling generally shows the GOP incumbent with small but steady leads over Rep. Colin Allred, a well-liked Texas Democrat and former NFL star. But private polling is causing fresh anxieties for Cruz and his party: Politico reported this week that the latest round of polling from the Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate Republicans’ top super PAC, found Cruz’s advantage over Allred “slipping … from 3 points in mid-September to 1 point in October.”

  “Most hated member of the Senate” is a paraphrased quote I’ve run across numerous times over the years in relationship to Senator Cruz. Both sides may cheer if he’s replaced. Albeit in a muted way.

I Put A Conclusion Down And Now I Can’t Find It

I have started discarding polls, because I hope readers now understand that some don’t deserve to exist. Such pollsters as ActiVote, SoCal Strategies, Patriot Polling (1.1), Trafalgar Group (0.7!), and Redfield & Wilton Strategies were on the list.

We’re now less than three weeks out on the terminus of the Senate campaigns, and I continue to have hopes. Senator Fischer’s (R-NE) looming disaster in Nebraska has been a complete surprise; if Mr Kunce can pressure Senator Hawley (R-MO), perhaps beating him, that would rival the shocker in Nebraska. The Florida and Texas races, despite the shock expressed by the longtime media, is less surprising, given the abrasiveness and darker qualities of the incumbents. And Montana? The willingness to throw away a competent and respected member of the Senate in favor of a businessman whose business is failing, and has multiple scandals, would be a shocking commentary on the Montana electorate. If that happens. Pollster reputations are on the line in Montana.

That blasted cat brought in a mouse, now I have to wonder where it went. Until next time…

Sheesh, so many polls. Is it time for an enema after last time?

What About the Democratic National Convention?

Will it affect the Senate races? In a few select cases, yes, as the Senators and challengers get a chance to communicate with attendees, physical and digital. And if the Democratic Party can communicate a positive message concerning the economy, the Gaza War, and abortion, they stand to pick up a few more votes, both for their Presidential nominee, Vice President Harris and for various Senate races.

On the other hand, miscues could hurt them. The Gaza War protesters, who think they can control the Party’s intentions towards the Gaza War through violent protest, must be handled firmly but fairly. While protest has a place in American politics, violent protest is not acceptable and may even indicate that the protesters are being manipulated by foreign, overseas forces.

In short, don’t look for any big swings.

How About Abortion Access?

This is the biggest issue of this election cycle, and every State that has an abortion access constitutional amendment on the ballot will attract voters who would not ordinarily vote, regardless of whether it’s pro- or anti- access.

Endangering lives and choice will do that, as previous votes have decisively shown.

So every State in which an amendment relating to abortion appears will see a surge in voters who will look to vote for more access to abortion, and against those who would deny them. This will be part of the Democratic strategy, but don’t be surprised if Republicans try to introduce opposite amendments as well.

And When The T. Rex Trumpets?

• A Shock To Big Red? Credible polls for Nebraska are in short supply, so when YouGov (2.9, putting it at #4 on the FiveThirtyEight board) speaks, it’s worth a listen. YouGov is giving incumbent Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB) the lead over challenger Dan Osborn (I-NB), but at 43%-41% and within the margin of error, this is a race, not a rout. For a comparison, Senator Fischer won her 2018 reelection race by nearly twenty points.There are a couple of stories here. Mr Osborn apparently played the Democrats into not putting forth a candidate, meaning there’ll be no vote splitting between Democrats and Osborn. Indeed, I saw somewhere that Nebraska Democrats have endorsed Osborn. He’s a vet, and a union member & leader, which means that union members across the State may vote for him based on affinity. Here’s an Osborn profile by Politico.
  

  On The Issues: Senator Deb Fischer (R-NB).

  This almost certainly has an abortion component, as Dobbs was celebrated by many in Nebraska, but fatal pregnancy complications potentially afflicts nearly all women and, secondarily, men and children. Mr Osborn’s statement on abortion carefully treads the line between those who are for abortion availability and those against, casting it as a privacy issue, as did Roe v. Wade. And don’t forget that the Senator even voted against a bill intended to protect contraception. Her On The Issues summary, to the right, indicates she is an extremist as well.

  Mr Osborn’s independent political status evades the independent who cannot stomach Democrats, which may or may not have been Mr Osborn’s intention. I won’t pretend to know how Democrats are perceived in Nebraska, but certainly attempts to inculcate loathing for Democrats has been a salient point in Republican propaganda for years, even decades. It seems like half of right wing pundit’s Erick Erickson’s posts feature that thought.

  But, perhaps most importantly, is the concept of a Red Wall. Election followers are well aware of the Blue Wall of the Democrats, and how its “crumbling” doomed Mz Clinton’s 2016 run. This is a reference to the victories of Mr. Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Although not mentioned nearly as much, there’s a similar Red Wall (or Red Sea, I come to find out) of such States as the Dakotas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and … Nebraska.

  Kansas has already shown signs of crumbling, to continue the analogy, as the governor’s seat has been held by Democrat Laura Kelly (D-KA) since 2018, or two elections. Is it now Nebraska’s turn to admit that the extremists of the right are incompetent and unpalatable in the area of governance? Their northern neighbor has certainly demonstrated this with the antics of the Kansas Republicans. See, for example, former Governor Brownback (R-KA) on this blog and many others.

  This race has certainly made it to the hot list, although the lack of polls makes that statement nearly meaningless.

  The only fly in the ointment is that Osborn sponsored the poll. But, as I state elsewhere, I don’t worry much about undue influence of high quality pollsters like YouGov.

  Finally, the reference to Big Red was not originally to the Republican Party, but to the University of Nebraska Cornhuskers football team, which was known, in the days of Coach Tom Osborne (later Rep Osborne (R-NB)!), as The Big Red Machine, or just Big Red. I’ll take the word play option around left end, though, and gather in the Party before throwing against the grain.

• 

  On The Issues: Matthew Corey (R-CT).

  Connecticut primaries have concluded, with Senator Murphy (D-CT) not facing any opposition, while Republican Matthew Corey (R-CT) advanced to the general election with 54.7% of the Republican ballots. While in another State that small number for Mr Corey might be disconcerting, in Connecticut Senator Murphy is expected to coast to an easy victory, even if Mr. Corey had collected 100% of the ballots. However, it’s worth noting that Mr Corey appears to qualify as a moderate and not an extremist, although data to this effect may be a trifle sketchy. Still, we may find that Mr Corey is the future of the Republican Party.

• In Arizona, WPA Intelligence (FiveThirtyEight rating of only 1.7) is only giving Rep Gallego (D-AZ) a two point lead, 48%-46%. The trick here? The sponsor is super PAC Club for Growth Action, a conservative group that’s been around for decades. Media azcentral does mention the sponsor and its antecedents, and, to quote:
  

  Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego led his Republican rival Kari Lake by 2 percentage points in a poll released Thursday by a conservative group that still sees the race as close.

  I bring this up as a measure of how much the media is just blindly reporting numbers, and how much they’re reporting context and suggesting some information is of a doubtful nature. In this article azcentral does a good job. I’ve seen other media report doubtful polls with no criticisms, implicit or explicit. This article has several not included in the above quote.

  At this point, I’m thinking Gallego wins by ten as the Democrat messaging nails Lake on abortion and her generally unacceptable behavior since the 2022 gubernatorial behavior. While credible media cannot ignore an endorsed Senate candidate from a major political party, they can, and should, completely ignore her if & when she loses the Senate race. Hooting about supposed election cheating, with neither evidence nor relevant credentials, does not make for news, despite what newsroom editors might think.

  I am assuming the undercount for Democratic candidates that appeared in special election polls throughout the last couple of years persists through this election. If it does not, Gallego wins by 6-7 points.

  Redfield & Wilton Strategies (at 1.8, not much better), which I’ve seen before, may have a conservative tilt, but it still gives Gallego the lead, 44%-39% or five point lead.

  Meanwhile, top-rated The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) is giving Gallego a nine point lead at 51%-42%. That link leads to a paywall; data comes from FiveThirtyEight, as it always does. Almost.

  Finally, an abortion rights constitutional amendment has qualified for the Arizona ballot. This amendment may not only ensure the defeat of Lake, but make it an overwhelming rejection. At least, I figure it ups the chances.

• The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) pollster combo suggests Senator Rosen (D-NV) is, indeed, increasing her lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) among likely voters, 49%-40%. Poll results for registered voters is 48%-37%, which I have to think is reflective of a certain disinterest in voting in Nevada. Regardless, Nevada is close to leaving the hot list as Republicans watch this dream fade away, given the results reported in the last Senate Campaign Update. Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8), for the record, gives Senator Rosen a much smaller lead at 41%-37%, which seems standard issue for this conservative pollster.
• On the other hand, Pennsylvania may be returning to the hot list. While the pollster Cygnal (2.1) has a fair rating, it also has a bit of tilt, inferred from out of line polling results and the language of its press releases (horn tootling bordering on bombast characteristic of the current crop of conservatives), so its results of 46%-42%, Senator Casey (D-PA) leading challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), aren’t much of a motivation to move Pennsylvania to the hot list. However, when Emerson College (2.9) gets a measurement of 48%-44%, it’s fair to say the race may be tightening up. Now, I have noticed Emerson College’s results tend to show tighter races than other pollsters, even top quality pollsters, so it may simply be a matter of how they’re interpreting the raw data. But it’s worth noting and remembering this poll result, even if Emerson College’s own press release says this:
  

  In the U.S. Senate election between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Dave McCormick, 48% support Casey and 44% support McCormick; 8% are undecided. Since last month, Casey’s support among likely voters has stayed at 48%, while McCormick’s support among likely voters decreased from 47% to 44%.

  If McCormick’s decline in numbers is not an illusion then he’s unlikely to take the traveling trophy of a Senate seat home in November or January. It remains true that other pollsters show Casey with a bigger lead, and whether this is a ripple in the electorate’s desires or a result of Emerson College techniques is unclear. The credibility interval for the Emerson College poll is given as ±3 points, which means the Casey lead could be one point, seven points, or something in between. The poll sponsor is RealClearPennsylvania, which appears to be a conservative organization; however, I tend to think that top quality pollsters, like Emerson College, will wisely refuse to skew their polls for clients, as to do otherwise is to risk reputation and, in the end, their very existence.

  Also, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) gives Senator Casey the lead at 44%-36%, significantly larger than Emerson College. The latter uses a somewhat larger sample size, but I don’t know how much of either’s sample is from the chancier online world.

• In New Mexico, Redfield & Wilton Strategies (1.8) gives Senator Heinrich (D-NM) a lead of 42%-36% over challenger Nella Domenici (R-NM).
• Democratic Senate candidate Rep Kim (D-NJ) of New Jersey will be denied the advantages of appointed incumbency as Governor Murphy (D-NJ) has appointed George Helmy (D-NJ) to replace the scandal-ridden, convicted of accepting bribes, and resigning Senator Bob Menendez (was D-NJ, now I-NJ). Helmy is a former Chief of Staff to Governor Murphy and aide to Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ), and I suspect this is a Thank You from New Jersey Democrats to a loyal and productive member.Senator Menendez has also withdrawn from the race for his seat. I expect Rep Kim will win easily, incumbent or not.
• The political site Crooks and Liars has an article from Joan McCarter, a name I recognize from Daily Kos, suggesting the sleeper race of the year might be that between North Dakota Senator Cramer (R-ND) and challenger Katrina Christiansen (D-ND). It sounds like a dream to me, but then most victories start with dreaming. Maybe McCarter’s evaluation of North Dakota as soft on Cramer is correct. I’m still thinking it’s a ten to twenty point loss for Christiansen, but I’d be happy to be proven wrong.
• Ben Wikler on Daily Kos reports on the State Constitutional Amendments that came up for approval by the electorate in Wisconsin during the recent primaries, and were roundly rejected at the urging of Democrats. To my ear, it sounds like the Democrats have stirred up normally disinterested voters, and since this was not about abortion, it shows that abortion is not the only governmental issue that can stir up voters. The Republicans are taking their last shots at securing power following the redistricting ordered by the Wisconsin Supreme Court, and it seems the electorate was having none of it, as all the Amendments were unexpectedly rejected. Next stop? November. If there’s a lot of anger at Republicans for their proposals, we may see my neighbor to the east turn as blue as Minnesota, at least in the State Legislature.
• Abortion access will be on the ballot in Missouri, where we also have a contest between Senator Hawley (R-MO) and Lucas Kunce (D-MO). It will bring out concerned voters to try to legalize abortion, or not, but I doubt there’ll be enough Oh, yeah! votes to push Mr Kunce over the wall. Still, I could have it wrong.

Final Thoughts For This Edition

The Republicans, so confident at the beginning of this cycle, seem to be in deep trouble. Some may not realize it, but Senators such as Fischer (R-NB), Scott (R-FL), and even Cruz (R-TX) are discovering their races are not going as easily as the Republican base might have imagined six months ago.

I expect this will extend to the House races, and swing districts will be mostly won by Democrats in November.

The Leading Issue

The 2024 Senate Campaign, as well as the House campaign, which I do not plan to comment on – much – will center around one issue.

Reproductive rights.

By which I mean not only abortion, which has become an issue of flaming importance, but IVF (in vitro fertilisation) and birth control in general.

And, as several pundits have already said, this means women, who will generally be furious at losing a Constitutionally guaranteed right to the willfulness of a conservative SCOTUS in Dobbs, and to IVF in the Alabama Supreme Court, will be the deciding force in a number of races. How do we know this? Those abortion ballot issues, such as this one in Kansas, which have been won by shockingly large margins, possibly without exception, by pro-choice forces.

The Economy

While the connection between the economy and the Senate is nebulous, its more solid connection to the President may be enough to coax uncertain voters to vote Democratic, even in red states. The Biden Administration’s success in rescuing the economy from previous Republican mismanagement did cause inflation, it’s true, but that fact must be communicated properly; Biden’s success in passing programs such as the infrastructure bill, a signal failure (or simply lip-flapping) of the Trump Administration, also presents a distinct advantage for the incumbent.

Candidate Quality

As in 2022, candidate quality is definitely a Democratic advantage. This is a result of a toxic culture in the Republican Party, as such qualities as competence, experience, compromise, and moderation are not appreciated by those who select official nominees, and the number of Lisa Murkowskis, a moderate who has won one write in campaign against a right-wing extremist in 2010 and could probably win another with ease, in the Republican Party is limited to three to my knowledge (the others being former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and current New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu nyah, not really). Nominated Republican candidates, as in 2022, will win their places through absolutist rhetoric that may excite the base, but will repulse the independents and Republican moderates.

The Punditocracy

Because they’re paid to do so, traditional pundits will cling to traditional measures and aphorisms in making predictions about the results of Senate races. A popular such aphorism is the observation that, because Democrats are defending more seats, they’re more at risk.

I’m here to tell you that this season will be more like the 2022 shocker, in which Democrats just barely lost the House and picked up a seat in the Senate, when the traditional expectation was that in a Presidential mid-term election, the President’s allies do not do well. In 2022 they did very well compared to expectations, a monster of an overperformance. That overperformance has continued in both special elections and, shockingly, in the behavior of the Republican House contingent, which has behaved like a combination of disgusted old men and self-centered brats, with just a sprinkling of Russian agents mixed in — I exaggerate only slightly.

While overperformances on the order of the Republican Vermont primary of this year are not going to happen in the general election, overperformances of a more modest, yet effective caliber remains possible, and even probable. I think there’s a lot of disgust with Republican incompetence, lies, and grandstanding, enough to overwhelm disgust and distrust with Democrats’ and certain of their missteps, and pollsters, due to their lack of access to the youngest voters, have been and will continue missing that data source.

In the End

Democrats must communicate the extremism of their opponents in order to have a chance of winning in contestable seats. President Biden must lead the communication and, additionally, emphasize abortion rights, the superiority of Democratic economic understanding, the Russian alignment of certain Republicans, candidate quality differentials, and moderate extreme-left positions in order to reassure independent voters.

Index

| Arizona | California | Connecticut | Delaware | Florida | Hawaii | Indiana | Maine | Maryland | Massachusetts | Michigan | Minnesota | Mississippi | Missouri | Montana | Nebraska | Nevada | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Dakota | Ohio | Pennsylvania | Rhode Island | Tennessee | Texas | Utah | Vermont | Virginia | Washington | West Virginia | Wisconsin | Wyoming |

Arizona

Incumbent Senator Sinema (DI-AZ) is stepping down in January 2025, rather than risk being voted out, leaving this an open seat. As primaries have not been held in this State, it’s difficult to discuss the race. At present, Rep Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is considered a lock for the Democratic nomination, but the Republican nomination is decidedly, ah, undecided. The best known Republican candidate is former broadcast anchor, failed candidate for Governor, and election-denier Kari Lake (R-AZ), but whether or not a candidate who was actively booed by her own Party at a convention can still win the nomination is open for debate. Further sinking her cause is the waning of support from presumptive Presidential nominee Mr. Trump. Having been rejected once in a State-wide race, the omens are not good for a second State-wide race.

Overall, it’s noteworthy that a conservative State such as Arizona has two Senators who were Democrats when elected; Sinema has since moved to the Independent column. Sinema was elected in 2018, unseating appointed incumbent Senator McSally (R-AZ), who replaced the deceased Senator McCain (R-AZ). Sinema won by 2.4 points. A Green Party candidate won 2.4% of the vote as well, suggesting Sinema’s final tally, if the Green Party had not run a candidate, might have been north of 4 points, even closer to 5.

Senator Kelly (D-AZ) was elected to an open seat in 2022, and his victory margin over Blake Masters (R-AZ) was nearly 5 points. While some of that is a reflection of the poor quality, in my judgment, of Mr Masters, it’s still true that a conservative state electing a Democrat as Senator is indicative of a State moving left.

Look for Rep Gallego to defeat whoever his opponent might be. The recent Arizona Supreme Court decision approving an ancient abortion ban as still effective has left Arizona Republicans quite vulnerable to angry pro-choice forces, since the Arizona Supreme Court is entirely made up of Republicans; this remains true despite Arizona’s Legislature moving to mitigate the ban.

California

This is the late Senator Feinstein’s (D-CA) seat, and, since her death, it has been filled by Laphonza Butler (D-CA). Butler is not running in the election, making this an open seat.

This contest features cries of hypocrisy and manipulation on both sides. California uses the jungle primary model, in which an all-inclusive primary has been held, and the top two contenders, regardless of party affiliation, are promoted to the final. On the Democratic side, the prominent contenders were Rep Adam Schiff (D-CA), who was a leading member of Congress in impeaching President, at the time, Trump (R), and Rep Katie Porter (D-CA), who, in her short time in Congress, has built a reputation for being an effective griller of witnesses.

The accusations flew when Schiff’s campaign began promoting the campaign of baseball great Steve Garvey, running as a Republican. The strategy is to promote an unelectable Republican into the final and avoiding a contest with a solid opponent, such as Rep Porter.

All that said, it’s not clear that Garvey will be easily defeated. It’s Schiff vs. Garvey. Getting information on Garvey is not easy. His financial history does appear to be somewhat checkered.

And neither Porter nor the Republicans are happy about this strategy. There have been no failures in this strategy in its use over the years of which I know, but it has an element of hypocrisy to it.

Still, look for the phrase “Senator Schiff today said …” in the future. It is California, after all, and Schiff is a solid politician.

Connecticut

Incumbent Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) won his reelection race in 2018 by 20 points. He’s running again, and there seems little reason to think whoever he faces, which remains undetermined, will come within 10 points. There are no recent polls that I, or DuckDuckGo, can see as of yet.

Delaware

Incumbent Senator Tom Carper (D-DE) is retiring at the end of this term, leaving an open seat, and primaries are not until September 10. No recent polls appear to be available for Brown and Rochester on the Democratic side, nor for Taylor and Hansen on the Republican side.

But this is Delaware. Carper won his last reelection race by 22 points. It’ll be a big surprise if Carper’s successor is a Republican.

Florida

Incumbent Senator Rick Scott (R-FL), not yet confirmed in a primary, is defending his seat against Rep Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL), also not yet confirmed. Assuming they both win their primaries, the closest thing to a current poll comes from The Hill:

A survey from the left-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, paid for by EMILY’s List and first shared with The Hill, shows Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell 44 percent to 41 percent. Because the margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, the two are effectively tied.

Because of chronic Republican underperformance compared to predictive polls, this poll suggests Mucarsel-Powell is very much in contention.

But I learned something else during research on Senator Scott: he’s not getting a free pass in the primary. Instead, he has a number of Republican opponents, six at the moment, that he must best. While I’m sure he will, it does speak to Republican dissatisfaction with the Senator, who has recently been responsible for Republican Congressional election strategy, and has made some misstatements concerning social nets for the aged that may hit his constituents hard.

And in his last election, in 2018, he won with 50.1% of the vote, while his opponent, former Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL), lost with 49.9% of the vote. Too close for comfort.

On the other side of the aisle, Mucarsel-Powell is the pick of Democratic Party officials as the Democrat most likely to beat Scott. Her decision to toss her hat in the ring may have been a cause of celebration in Florida Democratic circles.

I look forward to seeing this contest.

Hawaii

Senator Mazie Hirono (D-HI) is running for reelection, having won in 2018 by a margin in excess of 40 points. In 2022, her colleague Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) won by a similar margin.

This would appear to be a very safe seat for the Democrats.

Indiana

On The Issues – Rep Jim Banks (R-IN).

Incumbent Senator Mike Braun (R-IN) is retiring at the end of this term. On the Republican side, Rep Jim Banks (R-IN) is the only remaining candidate in the primary race, for which the election is May 7th, and we can assume he’ll be the Republican nominee. He’s had three terms in the House of Representatives, so he’s moderately experienced, which is sometimes a negative for Republican voters, but he’s definitely a conservative, as can be seen to the right. Braun’s election run for an open Senate seat in 2018 resulted in a victory by six points, which is not overwhelming, but, unless Banks has some scandal attached to his name yet to be publicized, it should be enough in this highly conservative state.

In the absence of a prominent Indiana Democratic candidate, which seems to be true, Rep Banks should soon get to change his title to Senator Banks.

Maine

Incumbent Angus King (I-ME) is running for reelection against a Republican and a Democrat who have no elective seats between them. In 2018, King faced a Republican and a Democrat and racked up more than 50% of the vote. That may be the question for the Maine Independent: Can he do it again?

If he appears to have a serious challenger I’ll update a post, otherwise expect this Democratic-leaning Independent to cruise to another term in the Senate.

Maryland

The retirement of Senator Cardin (D-MD) and the candidacy of the anomalously popular moderate Republican and former governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) to replace him makes Maryland an unexpected battleground. If you’re unfamiliar with the contest, in which primary elections have not been held, the Baltimore Sun has a summary:

David Trone, a multimillionaire who has spent more than $40 million in Maryland’s U.S. Senate race, has opened a wide gap between himself and Angela Alsobrooks for the Democratic nomination, a new poll from The Baltimore Sun, FOX45 and the University of Baltimore found.

But either would lose to former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in the general election if it were held now, according to the poll’s sample of nearly 1,300 likely voters. Hogan’s popularity suggests Maryland, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-to-1, will be a battleground in the national parties’ push to win a majority in the narrowly divided Senate.

There is, no doubt, a lesson in the fact that a moderate Republican is kicking the shit out of the best the Democrats can offer in a Democrat-leaning state, but since I’m not on the ground in Maryland and I do not have any Maryland contacts, I couldn’t really say.

Massachusetts

In blue Massachusetts, Senator Warren (D-MA) is up for reelection. In 2018, she won reelection by 24 points. In 2023 there appears to have been a smattering of polls showing Warren trailing potential opponents, but there’s nothing of the sort of late, and those “reports” may have been fake news. MassLive says,

The general election is still months away, but Democratic U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren holds a commanding lead in Massachusetts’ nationally watched, and still developing, U.S. Senate race.

We’ll have to wait for fresh polls and the selection of a Republican opponent.

At the moment I expect Warren to be a safe pick, but information is still scarce.

Michigan

The upcoming retirement of Senator Stabenow (D-MI) creates a race for an open seat. For the Democrats, it appears former CIA analyst Rep Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is the favorite for the nomination, while the Republicans appear to have a variety of former elected officials to choose from, such as Justin Amash, Peter Meijer, and Mike Rogers. The first two (well, just Amash now that Meijer has dropped out) are more moderates than far-right extremists, while On The Issues suggests Rogers is more hard-core. Relative to other states, it’s an impressive array of experience and talent.

That said, the Michigan Republican Party has been in robust disarray, featuring far-right extremists holding the chairmanship and other positions, when they’re not in active, fourth-rater warfare with each other, so whether a moderate can win the nomination is an open question with a potentially repulsive answer. The candidate ultimately put forth by the Michigan Republicans, even if not burdened with lawsuits from disappointed rivals – there’s ten candidates as of this writing! – may hold such extreme views on reproductive issues as to make them unelectable.

Finally, the last contest for Michigan Senator was in 2020 and resulted in Gary Peters (D-MI) defeating John James (R-MI) by less than 2 points.

The two major parties have a lot of work to do. I suspect the Republican mountain, given the immaturity of the party’s behavior, is a lot higher, but not insurmountable.

Minnesota

As much as Minnesota is considered purplish, there is little doubt that Senator Klobuchar (D-MN), up for reelection, is one of the State’s most popular politicians. She won reelection 2018 by 24 points. Along with her professional qualifications, her late father was a locally famous newspaper columnist, Jim Klobuchar. Perhaps that’s enough to make the case she’ll retain her position in November.

But it’s also worth noting the last Senatorial race in the state. When Governor Walz was faced with the need to appoint a successor for Senator Franken (D-MN) after Franken’s resignation, he selected his Lt. Governor, Tina Smith (D-MN). She was little known outside of political circles, but when it came time for the special election in 2020, she ran and won, beating Karin Housley (R-MN), wife of hockey great Phil Housley, which is a thing in Minnesota, and an experienced politician in her own right, having won election several times to the Minnesota Senate. Housley was not seen as a pushover.

Smith won by an impressive eleven points.

Primaries have not been held, but looking at the Republican field does not inspire thoughts of a monumental upset. Look for Klobuchar to win in November, unless she has to shift gears into a Presidential race. That becomes dicey.

Mississippi

Incumbent Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) survived two primary challengers, winning 60% of the Republican primary vote, to move on to the general election in November against Democratic challenger Ty Pinkins (D-MS). Pinkins had a 20+ year Army career and holds several degrees from Georgetown in law and government.

On The Issues – Senator Roger Wicker.

Will Pinkins’ qualifications help him overcome Wicker’s incumbency? Will Wicker’s hard-right ideology cripple his reelection campaign against a fresh face and a different set of ideas concerning how to run government? There are no polls as of yet, so the safe bet is Wicker, who last won reelection by almost 20 points back in 2018, in what has been traditionally a Republican state. But this could change in Mississippi.

Missouri

Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) is running for reelection in Missouri. In the primary he’s currently facing one opponent, Christopher Murphy (R-MO); the Democrats will have five candidates for the nomination in the primary. I recall Lucas Kunce (D-MO) from the 2022 primary for the Missouri Senate seat then up for grabs, where he lost in the primary to Trudy Busch Valentine (D-MO); she, in turn, went on to lose to State AG Eric Schmitt (R-MO) in the general by 13 points. Kunce is, I think, the favorite among observers to win the Democratic nomination.

The winning margin may be closer for Hawley, a national laughingstock, than for Schmitt, but my expectation is that Missourians will rally behind Hawley, if only to avoid admitting their blunder in electing Hawley, as well-known election denier and hallway runner, to the Senate in 2018. Ads such as this one may cut into Hawley’s incumbency advantage.

Axios also trumpeted Kunce’s donation total, but voters are the decisive force, not those who donate. I’ll believe Kunce, or whoever beats him in the primary, is someone to contend with once the polls come out saying so, and not before.

Montana

On The Issues: Senator Jon Tester (D-MT).

In Montana we come to the curious case, akin to that of former Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD), of Senator Jon Tester (D-MT). The Senator, who is running for reelection, is a Democrat in a strongly Republican state. He is a long-time politico, serving in the State legislature before moving to the US Senate in 2006, so Montanans knows the nature of the beast for which they vote.

And what is that nature? On The Issues summarized it in the graphic to the right: He’s not even a moderate, as might be expected. But he seems to have made a connection to his constituents, resulting in a 3+ point victory in his last election of 2018. That margin is not unusual for his Senate runs.

His opponent is yet to be determined, but I recognized none of the names except Tim Sheehy, who has little political experience, yet seems to be considered the favorite, although a scandal regarding a bullet wound may dog him in the primaries. If Sheehy loses the primary, former Secretary of State Brad Johnson (R-MT) would appear to be in line to take the nomination, with competition from third candidate Charles A. Walking Child. Whether any of these three represent real competition for Tester is yet to be seen.

Tester may also be bolstered by a potential reminder on the ballot, as an abortion rights amendment drive is currently gathering signatures. If it makes the ballot, Tester’s pro-choice position may give him an irrecoverable advantage in this race.

Nebraska

Nebraska is a two-fer. First, in the regularly scheduled competition, Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) faces no Democratic competition in her reelection run as of yet, although there is still time to enter.

It’s madness to permit Senator Fischer to coast to reelection. The Nebraska Democrats should be severely punished, by something other than their consciences, for this slip-up.

In a special election for former Senator Sasse’s (R-NE) seat, appointee Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE) is running in the primary against two unrecognized names, while the Democrats, apparently made up of a single person, have the inexperienced Preston Love Jr. (D-NE) as the only candidate in the primary.

In the absence of contrary polling data, it seems likely that Ricketts will win his first election to the Senate.

Nevada

On The Issues: Sam Brown (R-NV).

Incumbent Jacky Rosen (D-NV), who defeated incumbent Senator Dean Heller (R-NV) in 2018 by five points, is running for reelection, and this year’s opponent has not been determined; indeed, Rosen has primary opponents to face as well, although neither seem particularly threatening.

Rosen’s most likely Republican opponent is thought to be Sam Brown (R-NV), who competed in the 2022 race for the Senate; he lost in the primary to Adam Laxalt (R-NV), a known extremist who just barely lost to incumbent Senator Masto (D-NV). Whether Rosen can repeat her 2018 performance is unclear, although I suspect voters, both independents and moderate Republicans, will tire of Brown’s highly conservative ideology, which is illustrated to the right; Brown may suffer from Republican infighting, as this ad suggest Sam Brown is a “swamp creature”. If the accuser, Jeff Gunter (R-NV), wins the primary, the Brown voters may refuse to vote for Gunter.

This poll suggests Rosen and Brown’s approval ratings are similar.

New Jersey

As incumbent Senator Menendez (D-NJ) has announced he will be retiring from his seat in November in order to defend himself against corruption charges, and, no doubt, in view of his poor showing in polls, this race will be for an open seat. However, he may still run as an independent, and this article gives polling results when Menendez is running in a field of probable opponents.

At present, with primaries still to come on June 4th, Rep Andy Kim (D-NJ) is thought to be the favorite among Democrats, while the Republican nominee doesn’t appear to be clear to New Jersey watchers.

In 2018, Menendez won by twelve points. Between this being a blue state, the relative anonymity of the Republican possibilities, and the anger engendered by the Dobbs decision, I do not expect the Republicans to flip this seat.

New Mexico

Incumbent Senator Heinrich (D-NM) is running for reelection this year, with primaries still to come. So far, only Heinrich is in the Democrats’ primary, and the only Republican is Nella Domenici (R-NM). Senator Heinrich won his 2018 election by more than 23 points, and Domenici has little applicable experience.

It seems safe to assume Heinrich should win this race.

New York

Incumbent Senator Gillibrand (D-NY), who in 2018 won reelection by 34 points, seems to be a shoe-in regardless of who the Republicans nominate, which is not yet known. I do not recognize any other names among the primary challengers for either nomination.

North Dakota

Senator Cramer (R-ND), incumbent and member of the Senate leadership team, defeated incumbent Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) by nearly 11 points back in 2018.

That’s a lot.

His opponent is Katrina Christiansen (D-ND), who ran against Senator Hoeven (R-ND) two years ago and lost; outside of Dobbs, there’s little reason to think she’ll best Senator Cramer and the power of the incumbency.

Ohio

In Ohio we have another anomaly, as incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is running for reelection in a State generally considered to be conservative. Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH) ran for the other Ohio Senate seat two years ago, and lost despite a fine reputation and being known.

Brown, of course, as the incumbent is in a stronger position than Ryan, who was looking for a promotion. But will that be enough to defeat his opponent, Bernie Moreno (R-OH)? Brown was not challenged in the primary, so his finances are not as strained as Moreno’s might be. Moreno faced and defeated two opponents in the primary.

More interestingly, Moreno only received 49% of the votes, which suggests a lot of doubts among the faithful who vote in the primary. How will that translate to the general election? Will Republicans “Fall in line?” Moreno is Trump endorsed, and while that’s harmless in red states, Ohio is more purplish than red – and Moreno was the candidate who had the benefit of Democrats boosting him in the primary, as the least likely to beat Brown.

This should be a very interesting race. I think Brown has a chance, he may even be favored, but Moreno will also have a chance. Will the Trump curse sink him?

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is another State that has seemed to lean Republican but has a Democratic Senator or two. In this case, the incumbent is Senator Bob Casey, Jr (R-PA), who is running for reelection and faced no opposition in the primary.

Casey’s rival is David McCormick (R-PA?). Close readers will note the ‘?’, indicating that Mr McCormick may be another out of state candidate, but it’s not clear. Long term readers and those paying attention to politics may remember Mr McCormick ran for the other Pennsylvania Senator seat two years ago, but was defeated in the primary by Oz Mehmet (R-PA?), aka TV’s Dr. Oz. Much like Casey, he faced no opposition in this year’s primary.

But the general campaign is not off to an encouraging start. Between an incumbent opponent with reasonable approval ratings and a victory in 2018 of 13 points, the Dobbs decision, a scandal involving his hedge fund and China, a Trump endorsement, and, in a just released CBS poll, a 7 point deficit, plus chronic overperformance vs polls by Democrats, McCormick’s mountain is looking quite steep, despite Republican estimations that this seat might be flipped. They may be basing their hopes on McCormick’s greater access to resources; however, resources are not everything. At least some voters are offended by mendacity and a lack of authenticity.

I’ll be surprised if Casey loses this race.

Rhode Island

In Rhode Island incumbent Senator Whitehouse (D-RI) is running for reelection. He won in 2018 by 23 points, and in 2020 his fellow Senator Reed (D-RI) won by 33 points. Regardless of who is the opposition, undetermined at this time, it’d be the shock of the year if Whitehouse were to lose.

Tennessee

Incumbent Marsha Blackburn is running for reelection. Primaries have not been held, and they’re contested in both the Democratic and Republican columns, but there doesn’t seem to be a reason to expect the Senator to lose the primary.

In the last two Senatorial races, the Republicans have won by roughly eleven points. Can Tennessee Democrats make up that much ground?

Doubtful. Perhaps it’ll be a horse race, but it’ll be Senator Blackburn in the end.

Texas

Texas Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) happens to be a Senator with a 38 point disapproval rating, one of the highest in the country. Will this quash his reelection run? His opponent is Rep Colin Allred (D-TX), an experienced Congressional representative. This poll suggests Cruz is safe. Until polls come out suggesting otherwise, I’ll consider the Republican safe as well.

Utah

Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT), prominent Trump critic, is retiring, but this is Utah, not a purple state. I have little doubt that the June 25th Republican primary will select the future Senator from Utah.

Vermont

Vermont’s Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is running for reelection. As he caucuses with Democrats in the US Senate, Vermont Democrats are refraining from nominating a competitor.

The Republican challenger appears likely to be Peter Welch Gerald Malloy (R-VT), who also ran in 2022, and was crushed.

Look for Sanders to win reelection.

Virginia

Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA), former candidate for Vice President in 2016, is running for reelection. Assuming he wins the nomination, his record of winning the 2018 election by 16 points, and a reputation as being a very good Senator, suggests he has a very good chance of being re-elected.

Washington

Senator Cantwell (D-WA) is running for reelection. Washington features a jungle primary, in which a non-partisan primary leads to the top two finishers being promoted to the final. A November ’23 poll suggests Cantwell will dominate, but time is still passing.

Cantwell is the way to bet, though.

West Virginia

Senator Manchin (D-WV), sometimes more of a thorn in Democratic sides than Republicans’ for his advocacy for fossil fuels, is retiring. Given West Virginia’s conservative lean and resentment over the imminent loss of the coal mining industry, the biggest mystery is how Manchin has managed to get himself elected; by the same token, for most pundits the only question is who will be the Republican candidate, and the size of their winning margin in the general election.

For my money, it’ll be former Democrat and former governor Jim Justice (R-WV), and he’ll win by 15 points. It seems to be nearly as certain as shooting fish in a barrel.

Poor fish.

Wisconsin

On The Issues: Senator Baldwin (D-WI).

Wisconsin voters seems to be of two minds. On the one hand, Senator Johnson (R-WI) is a far right extremist loon who appears to be suffering from a touch of dementia. On the other hand, Senator Baldwin (D-WI) appears to be a far-left extremist, as can be seen to the right.

Senator Baldwin is up for reelection, not Senator Johnson.

A recent CBS poll gives Baldwin a 7 point lead over Eric Hovde, a rich, out of state contender who appears to have some views that are out of the mainstream. Hovde still awaits the primaries, though, so the story can still change.

I suspect Wisconsinites will prefer the Senator they know to the far right extremist, and Baldwin is popular, winning by 11 points in 2018. I expect Baldwin to work hard and win big.

Wyoming

In ruby red Wyoming, Senator Barrasso (R-WY), supposedly the most popular Senator, is running for reelection, and barring a shock in the primary, should win easily. Heck, according to Ballotpedia there isn’t even a Democratic contender.

No drama here.

The tale of the tape:

• Democratic & leaning seats: 19
• Safe Democratic seats: 14
• Republican seats: 11
• Safe Republican seats: 10

The question in the above is where is a safe seat not safe? Some folks think that Republican Senators Scott (FL) and Cruz (TX) are vulnerable. And then there’s the Democratic overperformance at the ballot box compared to the polls, which could result in upsets.

Or are Democrats overconfident that Biden’s exceptionally competent management and leadership will help them overcome other missteps? Is the Hamas mass kidnapping event and Israeli response really going to destroy the Democrats? Their mismanagement of the transgender issue?

I’ll try to keep an eye on polls and news.

Erick Erickson, for all of his advocacy of conservatives and their causes, seems conscious of what their leadership has become:

Posobiec^[UMB-1], who was also one of the originators of the Taylor Swift conspiracy theory that never happened, welcomed people to CPAC by claiming January 6th was just the start of overthrowing the country’s democracy, and his statement was met with an “amen” from Steve Bannon.

Do you want to radicalize people against the GOP? That’s a good start.

CPAC has always had some freak elements involved. But those elements were inside the tiny conference rooms a few floors away from the main stage and now are on or near the main stage.

Erickson has a few more references, then this:

Too many conservative institutions have given up as their leadership dies off or retires. The organizations are being placed in the hands of the grifters who kissed geriatric butt long enough to make it seem they meant it. And we’re left now with a rudderless movement that excels at spooking senior citizens out of their cash while remaining deficient in promoting ideas for the sake of those ideas.

And for those of us who were not brought up in the movement, or moved out of it young, and given it more than a moment’s thought, the multitude of Jimmy Bakkers, Falwells, LaPierres, LaRouches, Hams, McCarthys, Smirnovs, Comers, Jordans, the bizarre antics and claims and abuses^[2] of leadership conservatives at the aforementioned CPAC, the formerly respectable NRA^[3], Answers in Genesis, Discovery Institute, Republican Party, Southern Baptist Convention and many of its constituent and related churches, the Catholic Church, the Prophetic Movement, and oh so many more, all serve to make us rather unsurprised at the moral dissolution, the moral turpitude, emerging from the shadows into the light, one hand eternally up, one hand eternally out.

The best grifters don’t pick your pocket. The best grifters make you feel good about you giving them money. They construct the social prestige that their victims want, and sell them that prestige for top dollar. I give money to that prophet down in Kansas City, doesn’t that make me part of something important?

And the conservatives are seemingly constructed to be grifted. A strong belief in God must excite a grifter, as it implies a belief in something for which objective evidence seemingly doesn’t exist – my apologies to my religious readers, but that’s the elephant in the room.

Do not whisper of seeing God in the fields, in some horrid consequence for the unbeliever, hiding in the folds of rumored infinite power and full of plans to explain the unexpected death of your relative, I say. Show me a thirty foot tall talking creature performing miracles that can partake in a discussion, that can be measured. The former is the lair of the mad prayer with hairy ears, as Robert Heinlein observed, the grifter with little real social utility, who constructs their social position purely out of the stuff of imagination; the latter, at least, can be the starting point of a real discussion.

Not that non-conservatives are perfect, as the lefty attraction to the anti-vaxxer position proves. But Erickson should not be surprised at his political adversaries’ laughter, or sighs of boredom, or however they express their grief that these Americans, and many more, culminating in the name Trump, have such a hold over a large enough section of America to actually imperil the nation.

… by claiming January 6th was just the start of overthrowing the country’s democracy, and his statement was met with an “amen” from Steve Bannon.

The naked lust for power by the grifters doesn’t get much more brazen than that.

¹ Probably Jack Posobiec, who Wikipedia describes as … an American alt-right political activist, television correspondent and presenter, conspiracy theorist, and former United States Navy intelligence officer.

² OK, the abuses are not usually bizarre: various forms of sexual abuse, cheating on spouses, embezzlement, the list is long, but not usually that odd.

³ The National Rifle Association, which has ever more absolutist competitors to their right, who cannot stand the thought that anyone, no matter their criminal inclinations or inability to comprehend the importance of the personal integrity of anyone other than themselves, is not armed to the teeth. Such is the lure of social prestige.

When Biden announced for 2020, I reluctantly stated that I liked Biden best because I felt the experience of being a Senator forever, as well as a member of the House for a short time, and VP for eight years, equipped him to play against the nut-cases representing themselves as Republicans these days.

This is ice on polished granite.

I trust he’s proven my case, even beyond my expectations. Those pundits who’ve felt they need to present a balanced view, if only to keep their paying jobs, have really had to stretch to find a way to that mythical land. And I have little pity for those pundits who cater to the far-right sensibilities, such as my favorite, poor ol’ Erick Erickson – here’s his latest on the unidentified object shootdowns (UFOs, or UAPs to use more modern jargon), but you’ll have to read a bit before finding the part that leads to this:

Team Biden is showing itself to be dithering and weak.

I’ve been scanning his public blog posts for weeks with little commentary, but it’s telling that Erickson is having to critique the far-right for their indulgence in conspiracy theories of all stripes, and their willingness to frantically defend churches of dubious reputation, nearly as much as he attacks the Democrats – and has to rush to his own judgment on them. His task of keeping the far-right together enough to keep voting for chosen candidates and not indulge in self-cannibalism is not nearly as easy as it ought to be, and he has to be careful not to alienate those he tries to call back to reasonability.

Me? I’m gonna wait out these reports, ignore and/or laugh at these biased analyses, and see how much information is released to the public.

But in the meanwhile, Biden’s biggest burden remains what I talked about six years ago: his age. He seems sharp as a tack, but he’s reaching that age (currently 80) where he might not wake up tomorrow morning, and it’s not clear to me who, if not VP Harris, will replace him on the 2024 ticket.

It’s a matter that should concern Democrats, but it’s also worth remembering that Presidential contenders are not always nationally prominent when they run and win. Carter was an obscure Georgia governor when he ran and won. Clinton was less obscure, but still a governor from Arkansas. Obama? An obscure, half-term Senator. On the other hand, Mondale, Gore, Kerry, and Hillary Clinton were prominent politicians – and lost. The Democrats’ next Presidential candidate may be an obscure governor who I’ve never heard of.

But here’s an important difference between the 2024 election and previous elections. I think, deny it as they might, that the Republican members of Congress, and consequently – yes, I mean that, consequently – the Republican candidate for President, are such a pack of mediocrities or worse, third- and fourth- and even a few fifth- raters sprinkled among them, that, unlike earlier elections, Biden’s sophisticated attack strategy, and the competence that he continues to demonstrate, may cause permanent and crippling damage to what currently constitutes the Republican Party.

Contingent on continued competency, and perhaps what worries Andrew Sullivan (paywall),

But Biden’s party is far further left than Clinton’s, and although Biden’s talk has changed quite a lot, he has yet to do anything that would provide a clear clash with the far left. Maybe he fears he would break his party. Maybe he just doesn’t want to go there.

But if he can avoid letting the far-left propositions, those that justifiably alarm independent voters, become part of his narrative, there’s a chance that not only will the Democrats retain the Presidency, which I rate as a very good chance, but they may beat the odds in the Senate and retain control as well, and take back the House. That’s how badly Republicans are coming off so far.

How can I make these guesses, which I shan’t dignify with the term predictions, without madly giggling at myself? I’ve discussed special elections before, that they are highly vulnerable to low turnouts, local politics, bad weather, & etc. And those that I’m about to cite are early in the cycle and were for state legislature seats that lean Democratic. But it’s still worth taking a look at the margins in comparison to how Biden did. This is from Daily Kos:

What these say is that the Democrats greatly exceeded predicted margins in these three races. Is this predictive of anything? Yes – for three local districts in Pennsylvania, a state that endured not one, but two state-wide races between Democrats and rabid Republicans.

But it may mean that the Republicans’ bleeding, which began in 2018 with the loss of the House in a shocker, continued in 2020 with the loss of both houses of Congress and the Presidency, and continued in 2022 when they just barely won the House in the face of a predicted “red wave”, while horrendously losing a seat in the Senate, is set to continue. Every moment the House is in Republican control means it’s in danger of being lost in 2022. There are enough loose Republican lips and egos, nurtured in their epistemological bubble, to suggest that voters who get a snoot full of them won’t even consider voting for the current crop of power-grabbers.

And, in that case, if Biden were to change his mind and not run, it may not matter much. Put anyone competent up and the Republicans may end up spinning their bald tires like mad, burn out their engines, and leave their wreck of an ideology smoking on the highway.

But we’ll just have to see. I now see questions being raised about the veracity of Rep Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL). If these questions pan out, she may join Rep Santos (R-NY) on the gangplank to obscurity – and her district is thought to be not so safe.

And the House won’t be in 2024.

I still back Biden, but I won’t be surprised if he opts out, and a Democrat I haven’t considered, haven’t even heard of, comes out of nowhere to win the Presidency. The Republicans have surrendered to the barstool occupants, full of opinion and bluster – but neither expertise or, frankly, the ability to think.

Leaving only the question: can the Democrats, beyond Biden, out think them?

Sometimes staring at the trees just yields trees, so here’s a chart, as fragmentary and with some low-confidence data, that might give the reader some thought:

This chart shows, for all incumbent GOP Senators running for reelection for which there's current poll data available, their margin of victory in 2022 2016 in the red bar, and their current lead, according to pollsters, in the blue bar.

Yes, Johnson's lead is currently 0.

The most doubtful data is Indiana ("Internet poll" of the challenger) and Iowa ("commissioned by the challenger").

But what this small, but significant data sample indicates is that the independent voters are abhorring the Republicans. No doubt there are moderate Republicans who finally cannot vote for their own people, too, as those candidates are either too extreme, or are exhibiting unacceptable behaviors, such as Grassley of Iowa or Johnson of Wisconsin. But I suspect that mostly its the independents who find Republican philosophy and behaviors repellent.

And this leaning away from what passes for Republicans indicates a repudiation of the politics that, in many case, these political newcomers have brought with them: rank anti-abortionism, election-denying, already exhibited in the primaries, and a thirst for conspiracy rumors that support their most desperate wishes - rather than the ability to digest reality as it presents itself.

In some ways, this is a repudiation of their philosophy, which is a collage of anti-science, anti-experts, and a preference for irrationality, whether it be for that of Biblical literalism that often seems conveniently discarded, or the QAnon litany of nuttiness that appeals to those who find social media addictive and bizarre theories appealing.

Lee may be the most terrifying case for Republicans. A lead in excess of forty points has evaporated to two, and there's still more than a month left for Utah voters to learn what has disgusted their fellow voters about Senator Lee (R).

But any of the samples in this graph could suffer Lee's fate, because, not displayed here, none of the incumbents have reached the 50% level of support. They're still vulnerable if enough of the undecided voters decide to break to the left.

This may be one of the most important results of the upcoming election. Not that these incumbents lose or win, but that these GOPers lost this much support, even in Republican safe states such as Utah, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. It really makes me wonder about those states that are unpolled, such as the Dakotas and Alabama.

Something bothered me about this story portraying a pastor as a greedy bastard:

A pastor in Missouri rained down a fiery sermon upon his flock one Sunday this month, scolding parishioners for failing to follow God.

The Rev. Carlton Funderburke condemned his congregation not because they had sinned too much, loved God too little or done too few good deeds out in the world. Instead, Funderburke rebuked the “cheap sons and daughters” of the Church at the Well in Kansas City for not “honoring” him with a luxury gift.

“That’s how I know you still poor, broke, busted and disgusted, because of how you been honoring me,” Funderburke told his congregation, according to a video. “I’m not worth your McDonald’s money? I’m not worth your Red Lobster money? I ain’t worth your St. John Knit — y’all can’t afford it nohow. I ain’t worth y’all Louis Vuitton? I ain’t worth your Prada? I’m not worth your Gucci?” [WaPo]

And, of course, that may be an accurate portrayal, as there’s just not enough information in the story and I’m, uh, too lazy busy to dig out more. Nor do I live in Missouri.

But it is true that groups, especially those defined in traditional pecking order groupings such as racial or religious groups, compete to move up and the social power ladder. It’s an important behavior because a group that is important, such as Catholics in Ireland prior to the realization of the abuse of children by the ICC (Irish Catholic Church) by the public, doesn’t suffer abuse, while Catholics in Protestant Britain, on the other hand, can suffer a certain amount of disadvantage, even when putative public policy is to disregard membership in such groups.

And part of establishing one’s place in that societal pecking order is the display of wealth. Wealth informs those who might initiate violence that vengeance could be likely, official or not, and while common criminals might not consider that to be important, an organized group presents too many vulnerabilities.

So Funderburke may be wishing to signal that members of his congregation are rich enough to gift him with luxury items, and thus he, and they, may have influence with official law enforcement – or his congregation might be armed, although I doubt that’s information that he wants to signal.

In the end, it’s possible that he wants to signal that, hey, he leads a group of financially stable people, so leave them alone.

Or Not. He could be just a self-centered bastard.

I think The Lincoln Project has it right with regard to Liz Cheney:

Tonight, the nation marks the end of the Republican Party. What remains shares the name and branding of the traditional GOP, but is in fact an authoritarian nationalist cult dedicated only to Donald Trump.

While the demise of those truly in control of the Republican Party may involve fundamental neglect of national priorities and, indeed, violence from those who’ve been taken in by these leaders, it’s my belief that these same leaders are, much like the Axis leaders of World War II, really a pack of fourth-raters when it comes to politics and government. They may cover it with violence, as did the Axis leaders, but desperate clinging to ideological and theological tenets, even in the face of realities that disprove those tenets, is absolutely incompatible with effective leadership.

This was recently proven in Kansas in the rejection of a proposed Kansas Constitutional Amendment to permit anti-abortion legislation, but has been proven over the last few years with the rejection of climate change denying candidates in what would otherwise be considered Republican districts, and were experiencing extreme weather events.

I fear this won’t go swiftly, and the repair of damage done by the extremist Republicans loathed by The Lincoln Project may take decades, but progress will continue. My hope is that single issue voting will become a rejected, even disgusting, option, and finer grain discussions of political candidates will once again become a characteristic of the American landscape.