Mere speculation and completely made up guesswork: That’s how Republicans appear to be defending the former President. But enough of the sideshow, let’s go see the Senators! Can you tell the Minnesota State Fair is imminent?
- New Hampshire’s incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan (D) may not yet know her general election opponent, which will be determined in a Sep 13 primary, but if the three GOP candidates who showed up for a debate last weekend are the top candidates, and participant Don Bolduc, a retired brigadier general, leads the pack by quite a lot, then the New Hampshire Republican Party is unlikely to snap up Hassan’s seat in November. Brandishing far-right positions such as abolishing the FBI as well as the 17th Amendment, which would make the state legislatures responsible again for selecting Senators – evidently because trusting voters is too much for this crew – they are emblematic of a GOP that has been RINOing its way to the right in a blind fury of power madness and, I suspect, will go right off a cliff in November, screaming, yet again, of a stolen election, wearing their badge of righteousness on their sleeves, while leaving the cloak of humility in the closet. Ahem. Putting the soapbox away now. Sorry about that.
- In the first poll for any Senate contest I’ve seen since the FBI visit to Mar-a-Lago, University of North Florida reports that Florida incumbent Senator and Trump ally Marco Rubio (R) now trails challenger Rep Val Demings (D) by four points, 48%-44%, among registered voters; that 4 point gap is greater than the margin of error. University of North Florida polls are rated “A/B” by FiveThirtyEight, so there may be some credibility in this poll. I’d like to see several polls from different sources coming to the same conclusion before thinking Rubio’s likely to lose, but I will add Rubio to the list of endangered Republican Senators.
- Speaking of endangered Republican seats, Jennifer Rubin notes a report from The New York Times that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is cutting advertising budgets in Pennsylvania, where Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman reportedly has a large lead over Republican and neophyte Dr. Mehmet Oz, Arizona, where Senator Mark Kelly (D) is facing extremist and political neophyte Blake Masters (R) and reportedly has a fourteen point lead, and, surprisingly, Wisconsin, where Senator Ron Johnson, whose sanity could easily be questioned, will be facing off against recently selected candidate and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) [later note: See more on Barnes vs Johnson below]. If the NRSC is ceding Wisconsin, that’s huge news and is beginning to make the potential Senate gains for the Democrats look shocking – and confirm my thesis that the American electorate has little patience for extremists, who now make up most or all of the Republican Party, regardless of where we are in the election cycle. Democratic would-be extremists, take note and shut up.
- Alaska’s primary has yielded the following promotions to the general election: incumbent and Trump-hated Senator Lisa Murkowski (R), Trump endorsee Kelly Tshibaka (R), followed at some distance by Patricia Chesbro (D) and a player to be named later. This is rather better for the Senator than predicted, strengthening my suspicion of a victory for her, barring black swans. Remember, this is a Ranked Choice Voting state (RCV), which works to moderates’ advantage, and Murkowski may be the most moderate Republican Senator out there.
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Senator Thune’s (R) On The Issues summation. Yep, he’s about to fall off the edge of the world there, isn’t he?
If I’m to believe this poll, South Dakota citizens mostly reject abortion extremists who try to outright ban abortion, although they may disapprove of abortion itself. It’s that nuance that makes me doubt this suggests this is trouble for incumbent Senator John Thune (R), regardless of the magnitude of his extremist measurement from On The Issues. Show me a couple polls with Thune trailing challenger Brian Bengs (D) and I’ll change my tune, although satisfying noted Thune-hater DJ Trump would be a bit galling.
- In the first poll in Wisconsin since primary voters selected incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) and Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) as the last additions to the 2022 Senate race in Wisconsin, and the first Wisconsin poll since the Mar-a-Lago visit by the FBI, Marquette University Law School Poll, an “A/B” rated pollster according to FiveThirtyEight, gives Barnes a seven point lead, 51%-44%. While this may fluster the timid pundit pool, it’s what I hoped to see when I wrote about the burdens Johnson is carrying: a history of conspiracy theories, possible dementia, and the overwhelming weight of the Wisconsin GOP, who appears to be exceptionally lost in the wilderness, probably not to return until most of the membership is ejected and former members invited to rejoin.
- It seems unlikely, but keep in mind that Senator Inhofe’s (R-OK) seat will lack an incumbent defender in November, and his seat in red, red, red Oklahoma may be in danger if favored successor wannabe Markwayne Mullin (R), who has not yet won the primary runoff scheduled for August 23, continues putting his foot in his mouth with such statements as
“We saw this media frenzy about supposedly classified information — where was this same media frenzy when there was 33,000 classified emails on a server in a bathroom with Hillary Clinton?” Mullin asked, indignantly. “Why didn’t they raid that bathroom?” [TPM].
Since there were 133 classified emails and Secretary Clinton delivered the email server up on request, unlike the former President and his stolen documents, Mullin is now vulnerable to charges of lying by his challengers, primary runoff mate T. W. Shannon (R), and if he slips by Shannon, general election challenger Kendra Horn (D). As noted before, it’s worth keeping half an eye on this Oklahoma contest. I suppose a poll is unlikely until after the runoff. I’m such a member of the Instant Gratification Generation.
- Summarizing current Democratic status: Seats probably lost: None. Seats I currently consider to be in danger: None. Seats that had been thought to be in danger a few months ago, but now no longer so considered: Arizona, Georgia, Washington, New Hampshire. Not enough data: Colorado, Nevada.
- Summarizing current Republican status: Seats probably lost: Pennsylvania, Ohio. Seats I currently consider to be in danger: – Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Wisconsin. If things break just right, Republicans may also lose: Missouri, Kansas, Utah (to independent Evan McMullin), Kentucky. Not enough data: any seat currently held by a Republican for which no polls of relevance available. There’s blood in the water, folks.
More flubs concerning Senate races are here.
