Category Archives: Uncategorized

Remember the excitement over SpaceX going public? Well, since then, as of yesterday …

The price per share high was $225 or so, so it’s lost not 25%, as this six month chart shows, but 50% or so.

Not pleasant.

To me, a market cap is the result of investors future expectations of the stock, that being dividends and the likelihood that other investors, for good reason or bad, will bid the price up. Sure, there’s going short, calls, puts, and more outré forms of investing, but that’s the essence. Fundamentals, which are the analysis of the various numbers associated with running a business, technicals, which is the application of mass psychology to the investor class and often seems delusional, stand along side the story aspect of investing: associated with the estimate of the market size, it’s the rationalization of why this company will grow, and in turn grow the return on investment.

Will SpaceX ever grow into its market cap? At its high of $205/sh and an outstanding share count of 10,607,000,000, we’re talking a market cap of $2.17T at one point, which seems huge to me, especially for a company not yet showing a product. But what about its market and story? I’ll leave the market to others, especially since that’ll depend on Mr Musk’s objectives over the next few years, but note that SpaceX’s ownership structure is atypical and concentrates control in the hands of Mr. Elon Musk. Mr. Musk has been erratic over the last few years, demonstrating an inclination to bulldoze his way through obstacles, rather than finding proper and clever paths. While he deserves, and gets, credit for his products congruent with green thinking, his intellectual vulnerabilities apparent in his conspiracy theory mindset and the DOGE debacle make him a sketchy leader.

The SpaceX future becomes a problem in dueling stories: the supposedly immense riches of outer space vs Musk’s erratic behavior in combination with the immense technical challenges of his enterprise. I’ve owned shares of that solar power company that was bought by Tesla, and so I’ve owned Tesla shares as well. Yes, the romanticism attaching to SpaceX is alluring, but I shall have none of it. Elon Musk has been erratic and, in the end, will have disgraced himself with his DOGE antics. Too easily his companies might just collapse.

Apparently Federal agents showed up at a 2025 Governor Newsom (D-CA) press conference … for no good reason:

Leaked messages have shown that federal agents complained about a “political stunt” aimed at Trump nemesis California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Hundreds of explosive court documents have blown the lid off federal immigration operations in Los Angeles, exposing a chaotic mess of random street stops, casual racial slurs, and rogue officers terrified they were being forced to break the law.

The exhibits were included in a motion for a preliminary injunction filed by the American Civil Liberties Union, Public Counsel, and other groups and private attorneys seeking to bar an “ongoing campaign of suspicionless and discriminatory detentive stops” in the Central District of California. [Daily Beast via Newsbreak]

It sounds to me to be the kind of abuse that you punish by arresting the agents, their supervisors, then the Secretary of DHS, and, finally, the President.

And if it’s state police that have to do it, so be it.

Sorry, a bit angry.

Luteal phase:

DJT, the stock symbol of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, has been bouncing upwards of late, so I thought I’d review it. First, DJT’s stock chart from yahoo!:

It’s gained some value, and even breached $10/share at one point today, although it finished with a minuscule loss on the day. Seeing that the major indices did not do well today, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ down more than 1.5%, and the Dow more than 2%, it’s not a bad day’s performance for DJT.

Compared to my last check, too, DJT is doing well. Last time it was at $8.54/sh, so nearly $10/sh is a nice pick-up.

So is it time to plunge all-in?

Me? I won’t. I won’t buy a speck. They do have a new product offering called Truth API. Here’s 24/7 Wall St (via yahoo!):

High-frequency trading firms are paying up to $100,000 a month for a direct API feed to President Trump’s Truth Social posts, according to Wall Street Journal reporting discussed on CNBC Friday morning. Gunjan Banerji, the Journal’s lead markets writer, walked through the mechanics of the arrangement and explained why algorithmic traders view the fee as a cost of doing business rather than a discretionary spend. …

Banerji framed the stakes in the smallest possible time unit. “For the high frequency traders, the types of firms that are subscribing to this data, nanoseconds matter. We’re talking billionths of a second can make a difference in terms of their profits or losses,” she said. Algorithmic desks that trade equities, Treasury futures, currency pairs, and index derivatives can capture or lose meaningful spreads on a single Trump statement about tariffs, sanctions, or personnel.

Let’s skip my objections to high speed trading, which I do not regard as investing, but as parasitism. For me, Truth API is DJT is selling fast access to a failing product, that being President Trump, which may lose its value at any moment. For example, if impeachment proceedings are successful, and a conviction follows, then President Trump reverts to being Donald J. Trump, the guy with a mouth and bad judgment. This might happen before mid-terms, although after mid-terms is more likely. There are other scenarios of similar nature. What is the value of Truth API then?

Sure, it might retain value, but that’s not how I’d bet on it. Mr Trump has been losing respect ever since he resumed office, and I do not see long-term value in this or any other offering of DJT.

But that new product offering may be what’s caused the value to pop in the short term. Or it could be a few other motivations, such as market manipulation by an international ally of the President’s. But don’t look for this to begin climbing to that IPO sale price, and I remain skeptical that there’s any value in their expected merger with TAE. I just don’t see it. Nor do I see their “cryptocurrency treasury” saving them, as $TRUMP and, to a lesser extent, Bitcoin are trending downwards. It seems to be a dark future.

As always, I’m an obsolete software engineer with an opinion, I’m not an investment advisor or financial expert. Find one of those if you need advice.

Not all these are from this year.

THEY’RE NOT CHESS PIECES, ALTHOUGH SOME WOULD LOOK GOOD CARVED OUT OF WOOD

President Trump, in his desperation to treat Republican Senators like his personal chess set, may be dooming his midterm results, instead.

Trump on Wednesday told rally-goers in Georgia to “call John Thune” over the Senate GOP’s inability to pass a partisan election bill, known as the SAVE America Act, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Thursday said the president’s patience with the South Dakota Republican is “running out.”

But if Trump’s rhetoric is meant to drive Republican voters to the polls this fall — and some allies believe it will only increase ahead of November — it does little to change the reality in the Senate, where the SAVE America Act still doesn’t have the votes to pass. Instead, many Republicans on Thursday came to their leader’s defense, acknowledging an unwinnable standoff between the president and their 53-seat majority.

“This idea that he can just command members of the Republican conference to get in line is just a fantasy. So I think it’s unfair,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who ran against Thune for majority leader in 2024 and then lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed challenger earlier this year. “I don’t know who it was that sold the president on this idea, that this was obtainable, but it’s creating a circular firing squad for Republicans.” [Politico]

President Trump may view this as a matter of political survival. If the Democrats win Congress, he may believe they’ll impeach him, and, if so, a conviction in the Senate would result not only in his being barred from the Presidency, but also in the resumption of legal proceedings against him at both State and Federal levels, up to and including imprisonment. Furthermore, investigations may resume, and if the rest of his family has been involved in nefarious deeds in the pursuit of money, they, too, could find their freedoms endangered.

But let’s take this a bit further. As a self-proclaimed billionaire, he’s made it clear that he views himself as a superior human who shouldn’t be subject to the same rules as us mere hoi-polloi. Now, it’s not unknown for folks to band together around some shared characteristic, even when they don’t like certain members of the group, because they view that shared characteristic as more important than their personal dislikes.

It’s not unlikely that such a group, bonded by their immense wealth, would become very concerned if Trump’s freedoms were endangered, because that would imply their own vulnerability to government restrictions. What would happen then? Open warfare? Covert warfare? Assassinations?

And will any of this elaborate conspiracy theory occur? I still see the Democrats flipping the House; their chances in the Senate are much less, and even if they do take the Senate, persuading enough Republicans to convict their President seems unlikely, as Tillis, Cassidy, and Cornyn will have been replaced, although listing their replacements could lead to some interesting scenarios.

But, in general, GOP Senators are becoming quite unhappy with the President. The President may be forced into unexpected concessions under threat from GOP Senators post-election. The horse-trading may become a spectacular sport.

FUTURE REALITIES HANGING OVER THEIR HEADS

All of which leads up to the dawning realization among the GOP faithful that their understanding of the American world is perhaps not up to snuff.

Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm that their party faces a listless and demotivated base ahead of November’s midterm elections.

A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Donald Trump’s low standing in polls and the fact that the party in control in Washington almost always loses seats.

The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans’ loyal base, spreading to the party’s most consistent voters — who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections, according to an analysis done by Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative super PAC affiliated with billionaire Charles Koch. This new issue with the base adds to the party’s more enduring problem of turning out less-frequent voters who support Trump but often skip midterm elections. [WaPo]

The dangers of the epistemic bubble, eh, the mistake of talking only to ideologically similar folks? Yes, although the Democrats have problems of their own, such as immigration and autocratic inclinations.

It’s far too late for new Parties supplanting the old, but maybe in 2028.

AND NOW THE MAIN EVENT

Last week’s main event was held in Paris. Paris, Texas. It was called the Ephemera Championships, and the trophy was constructed of solidified invisible ink.

• Michigan is a center of Senate campaign activity in this issue, as open seats often prove to be.
  1. First up is former Rep Mike Rogers (R), presumptive nominee of the Michigan Republicans, and, well, I’ll call it his big, monarchical mouth:
     

     Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers has found a new reason for Michiganders to open their wallets: He wants them to help protect Elon Musk from congressional accountability.

     In a fundraising appeal sent Saturday, Rogers warned supporters that Democrats would use control of the Senate to subpoena Musk over his role in the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, which carried out sweeping cuts across the federal government.

     “When you stand with my Senate campaign today, you are directly shielding Elon Musk,” Rogers wrote. He then asked for an “immediate, urgent contribution right now to protect Elon and save America.” [Detroit Metro Times]

     Monarchs are, more than often, shielded from most forms of accountability. Just call Rogers a King George lover. See if he twitches. While Republican voters may consider all Democrats unacceptable, independents should see this as a profoundly un-American statement, and vote for someone other than Rogers.

  2. CNN has a subscriber article entitled, In private call, Michigan Republican running for Senate sees himself in ‘good shape’ against one particular Democrat.  The Republican is former Rep Rogers, and that Democrat is Abdul el-Sayed, one of the two remaining Democrats in the Michigan Senate primary. Is it a ploy or an unvarnished opinion? The latter, I suspect.
  3. Third, Governor Whitmer (D-MI) is in the endorsement sweepstakes and has endorsed El-Sayed’s primary rival, Rep Haley Stevens (D), for the Michigan Senate seat.
  4. 

     On The Issues: Rep Haley Stevens (D-MI).

     I don’t generally pay attention to polls from Glengariff Group, owing to their poor evaluation results when FiveThirtyEight was still around, but I was intrigued by their latest poll in Michigan. It’s not a direct comparison of the intra-Party rivals in the Democratic primary, but more of a message to primary voters: Rep Stevens (D) has a 46-45% lead, within the margin of error of ±4.0 points, over presumptive Republican nominee and former Rep Mike Rogers (R), but Stevens rival Abdul El-Sayed (D) trails Rep Rogers, not Stevens, by 10 points, 49%-39%. If we assume Glengariff slanted their results, then this may be another sign of the coming rift between progressives and moderate Democrats. However, the fly in this conspiracy ointment is summarized to the right & above: Rep Haley’s position strikes me as more progressive than moderate, even though she’s described as the moderate and El-Sayed as the progressive.

• The Maine Democratic Party Senate nominee is officially Troy Jackson. For whatever “official” is worth, as Graham Platner was also official, having won the primary. If Jackson is as volatile as described, we may yet see another nominee from the Maine Democrats. If such happens, I may have to make vaguely insulting comparisons to the process of replacing former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).
• The appointment of Trump-endorsed Darline Graham (R-SC) to her late brother’s South Carolina Senate seat, and her reported interest in the primary for the next general election in November, has not yet resulted in the clearing of the field. Perhaps she’s seen as a weak candidate in this context.The primary special election is scheduled for 11 August.
• In Texas pollster Texas Public Opinion Research gives James Talarico (D) a 45%-40% lead over state AG Ken Paxton (R), with a margin of error of ±3.4 points. I wonder if Senator Cornyn (R) would do better?Perhaps Texas Public Opinion Research should put former Governor Ventura (I-MN) on their Board of Directors, as he was adamant that politics is not a horserace, and yet there it is:
  

  Paxton v. Talarico Horserace

• I don’t see much out of Montana, so GQR, which had a respectable, if not amazing, rating from FiveThirtyEight, is worth reporting. They give US District Attorney Kurt Alme (R) a 41% share, Seth Bodnar (I) 27%, and Rep Bankhead (D) 22%. Bankhead’s name recognition is abysmal at 63% and, until she repairs that omission she’ll not have a chance. Two other polls from other pollsters have similar numbers. These numbers speak for themselves, but it’s not simple to predict those of tomorrow.

THAT IRRITATING LAST WORD

Montana will not be flipped unless Bodnar drops out, and Maine is slowly fading from Democrats’ hopes. Still, there’s plenty of time for something to happen.

And, yes, there is a delay in the acquisition of Warner Bros Discover by Paramount Skydance.

Perhaps ‘typo’ is too strong a noun, but I find the second paragraph quite jarring:

Tropical Storm Bertha, the second storm of the season in the Atlantic Ocean, came ashore in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana, on Wednesday afternoon.

As of 2 p.m., the disheveled tropical storm had crossed near the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area. Sustained winds were listed at 45 mph, but those winds were contained mainly in thunderstorms well offshore. The center of circulation was drifting west-northwest at 7 mph. [“Tropical Storm Bertha makes landfall in Louisiana“, Ben Noll & Matthew Cappucci, WaPo]

Yeah, ‘disheveled.’ Are storms disheveled? There’s usually some human association with things that are disheveled, whether it’s your bedroom or your hairpiece. But a storm?

This interrupts the reading as the reader mulls the sentence, and that’s not what a good writer wants. I suspect AI actually wrote this, but, sure, a rookie writer could also make that mistake. A friend once tried to get ‘ingest’ by me in a human context.

“Lisa,” says I, “Humans eat; it’s The Blob that ingests.” Sadly, she had not seen The Blob, which lead to lingering disbelief.

“What did you say about my mother?”

The Monolith Monsters (1957) is that rare thing: a B-list science fiction movie that, every time you think about the science, it’s … plausible. A meteorite hits Earth in the American southwest and spreads rubble near San Angelo, CA. Or at least it’s rubble until it is wetted, and then, due to an exotic chemical reaction, it begins growing.

No, it doesn’t grow into a kaiju, but into an obelisk, a tall tower of material that will eventually collapse under its own weight and creates more of the deadly rubble.

While medical researchers frantically search for the key to the chemical reaction and how it sucks important material out of the human body, town leaders search for a way to save the town, and possibly the entire human race, from the menace of this exotic material.

And will they succeed? There’s this strange taste of this being a dated film, mostly due to the old-fashioned concept of how an American society ought to function, and so that tainted the movie to an extent. But if you can ignore that, it’s a tense member of the How do we fix this problem genre.

And it’s sort of fun.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright strips off some context from an argument, which Steve Benen restores but …

Over the weekend, Energy Secretary Chris Wright appeared on ABC News’ “This Week” and was asked about the latest developments. “Gasoline prices today are more than $1 a gallon cheaper than they were four years ago under the Biden administration,” he argued.

The Cabinet secretary’s reference to “four years ago” gave away the game: Joe Biden’s presidency wrapped up a year and a half ago, but there was a price spike in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. Wright apparently wants people to compare Biden-era data to Trump-era data, though he’s playing a tiresome shell game that’s intended to obscure a basic fact: Americans are paying more at the pump now than when Biden exited the White House.

… doesn’t really dig out the details. Specifically, President Biden or his people took a situation, Putin’s War, that was no fault of their own, so far as I could see, and worked that inflation down through opposition to Putin’s War by financing Ukraine and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy.

Trump and those who advise him and/or direct him, on the other hand, are responsible for Trump’s War, and thus responsible for its consequences, such as devastation of the world economy, destruction of the American position as lone superpower and the advantages that came with a dollar-based international financial system, and, of course, the gas prices and general inflation.

The fact that Trump cannot remedy the problem, for whatever reason, renders Secretary Wright’s defense specious at best, fraudulent at worst. For all that Biden’s people were caught lying, a decision that cost the Democrats the White House, the Republicans elected a leader who is deeply incompetent, arrogant, lies ceaselessly, pardons criminals in order to win their allegiance, and permits his need for ego-inflation to direct his actions.

And that’s why the Republican Party should be dissolved and replaced.

Get too greedy for the honey and the bees will sting:

A federal magistrate judge ruled Tuesday that President Donald Trump must turn over detailed financial information in connection with his defamation lawsuit against the BBC.

U.S. Magistrate Judge Enjoliqué Lett concluded that Trump’s sweeping complaint put injury to his businesses at the forefront and made their vitality a fair subject for the BBC to demand information about.

“All of President Trump’s brand, properties and businesses are impugned or said to have been impugned. Reputational, economic damages, all of that is now at issue in this case,” Lett said at the conclusion of a three-hour hearing.

Her decision opened the door for the BBC to explore the finances of more than 400 companies owned by a Trump family trust, but Trump can appeal the ruling to U.S. District Court Judge Roy Altman, a Trump appointee. [Politico]

Or, in this case, assault you with their posh Brit accents.

I wonder if the public will get a little insight into the finances.

THE SEED OF INFURIATION

Trump supporters, MAGA and not-MAGA, often celebrate his attempts to “punch back ten times harder,” which sounds all tough and fighty – but politics isn’t always a punching game. Consider this:

The Trump administration on Tuesday paused more than $1 billion in Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota, which Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said would not be reversed until the Democratic-led states “demonstrate that every dollar meets federal requirements.” [MS NOW]

Governors Walz (D) and Newsom (D), the governors of Minnesota and California, respectively, are loathed by President Trump, the former for being on the Democratic ticket, and the latter for standing up to President Trump and making him look bad. No doubt, someone in the Administration thought this was a matter of retribution.

But now Trump has made himself look bad. He’ll look bad to every person affected by Medicaid funds being withheld.

And Walz and Newsom will make this Trump Administration action an important part of many races in their States. Minnesota residents are angry enough over the murders of Minnesota citizens by ICE agents that it probably won’t matter, but it’s possible a House seat or two will flip between the two States.

Dumb move.

NOT A RHETORICAL MIRACLE WORKER

Steve Benen notes the SAVE Act has made little progress with Congress:

The New York Times reported last week that his legislative plea, “which Mr. Trump implied was the reason behind the Thursday night speech, appeared to have landed with a whimper among Republicans on Capitol Hill and in campaigns around the country.” NBC News published a related report as this week got underway:

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, didn’t mince words when he was asked Monday whether President Donald Trump’s primetime speech succeeded in its goal of nudging the Republican-controlled Senate to pass his sweeping elections bill, known as the SAVE America Act.

“No,” Cornyn told NBC News. “We don’t have the votes. … I think the president’s getting some supremely bad advice.”

When NBC News asked Republican Sen. Thom Tillis whether Trump’s speech helped the legislation’s prospects, the North Carolinian replied, “Not at all. There’s no way you get this implemented in time for this election. I think people are being led to believe that that’s the case, and that’s just wrong.”

It’s true the House managed to pass it, as The Guardian (UK) notes, but it was somewhat pathetic:

House Republicans resurrect Save America Act by adding it to spending bill

Effort is latest attempt to pass bill that seeks to ban mail-in ballots and imposes voter identification requirements

That’s Speaker Johnson for you. Rather than make a persuasive case for it, or telling Trump to back off, he quips that intuitively he knows cheating is rampant and then strong-arms the legislation to its doom in the Senate.

The weakest Speaker in modern memory.

THE ANCHOR IN THEIR PANTS IS GETTING BIGGER

Trump’s War, and the Senate’s failure to stop it, will weigh more heavily on them as the Houthis try to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Even if they fail, it’ll push up the cost of insurance used by shippers, which will be passed on to consumers – and they’ll know who to blame.

AND BACK TO OUR DAILY SOAP OPERAS!

• Remember I mentioned the Democratic nominee for the Nebraska Senate race, Cindy Burbank, was still in the race, along with incumbent Senator Ricketts (R) and Dan Osborn (I), a few Campaign Updates ago? Now she’s out of the race:
  

  Cindy Burbank, Nebraska’s Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate race, submitted paperwork Friday to remove herself from the November ballot, a move that could clear the way for nonpartisan candidate Dan Osborn to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts.

  The Secretary of State’s office confirmed that Burbank filed a form saying she was declining to run Friday morning.

  Burbank did not immediately respond to an Examiner request for comment. In a video posted to her Facebook page, she said: “I’ve looked at the numbers. I won’t be your next senator. So I have withdrawn my bid for U.S. Senate.” [Nebraska Examiner]

  Confirmed by Ballotpedia, which tends to get these things right. And remember that part about suing to remove names from primary ballots? I suppose this next bit might be filed under, ummmmm, karma? What goes around comes around? Oh, there’s a dusty old aphorism that fits, surely…

  Secretary of State Bob Evnen will send a letter on Monday to Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers asking for his decision on whether Burbank should be allowed to drop out, Evnen spokesperson Rani Taborek-Potter said Friday.

  Finally, this just seems to be incoherent gibberish.

  [Incumbent] Ricketts’ campaign released a statement Friday on Burbank dropping out.

  “Dan Osborn has rigged yet another party’s ballot because he is the Democrats’ nominee,” the statement said.

  Perhaps Senator Ricketts and his campaign can’t believe this is happening. It does appear to be his worst scenario, but it’s impossible to say whether Osborn can keep it close until the end, and then pull out a victory.

• The previous Campaign Update mentioned that legislator Troy Jackson (D) is the presumptive Democratic nominee for Maine Senator Collins’ (R-ME) seat, and now we have a University of New Hampshire poll on both the race for the nomination, which shows Jackson with a large lead, and a general election poll, giving Jackson a 49% – 46% lead over Senator Collins, with a margin of error of ±2.8 points. That makes it a close race, presuming Jackson does, indeed, win the nomination. The convention is 25 July.

  Senator Collins, realizing she’s in a tight race, has come out against the recent tariffs on Canadian goods:

  [Maine] shares a border and a close economic relationship with Canada, making it among those most likely to see a strong economic downside from the new levies. And the strong reaction from Republicans and Democrats across Maine made it clear just how much of a political albatross the policy might be in a top battleground that Trump lost by seven points in 2024. Tariffs in general have been particularly unpopular in the Pine Tree State: A June New York Times poll found that 59 percent of likely voters in Maine disapprove of them. [Politico]

  Both healthy for the nation and politically smart.

• A new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll for the Minnesota primaries shows Rep Craig and Lt Governor Flanagan tied at 40% in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator Smith’s to-be-open seat, with 16% undecided and 4% leaning towards an undefined ‘other’, suggesting a large reservoir of votes are available. The undecideds is most popular with the aged 18-34 crowd and the female group. How does this differ compared with last month’s result?
  

  The DFL-endorsed Flanagan gained 4 points from last month while Craig dropped 1, putting them even at 40% of the vote.

  Lt Gov Flanagan has the endorsement of the Senator she might be replacing, Senator Tina Smith (D), received last February.

  Michelle Tafoya has a large lead on the Republican side, 41%-10%, over second place candidate Royce White. The GOP-endorsed candidate, Adam Schwarze, continues to lag very badly, and undecideds are at 28%, meaning even if Royce White were to pick all of them up, Tafoya would still lead, although probably within the margin of error, which does not appear to be provided. She’s the nominee sans a black swan event, I think.

  The primary is 11 August.

• If your candidate runs when a journalist asks a question, perhaps you should replace the candidate. I mean, Texas‘ GOP Senate candidate and Texas AG Ken Paxton is a prime candidate to be replaced based just on personal history. All those white hats in the video? Put that many on stage and that speaks to me … BLACK HAT. Senator Cornyn, stay near your phone. The Texas GOP may be placing an emergency call to you.
• An AARP poll gives Georgia Senator Ossoff (D) a 52% – 43% over challenger Rep Mike Collins. I don’t know if AARP polls have a good history, though.
• Michigan Senate candidate Abdul el-Sayed (D) has received the endorsement of Senator Tina Smith (D-MN), according to The Hill. But do Michigan voters care? It sure seems like Senator Smith has been a non-entity in her first, and, it turns out, only term in the Senate, but then that seems to apply to most of the one hundred Senators. She retires at the end of this term.

FIN

That’s it for this issue. The question marks remain numerous, and no one anxiously awaits the next issue.

I’ve been meaning to mention this a couple of days ago, but life is busy and my attention is more on Campaign Updates – although I could argue that this action, previously threatened, will impact the upcoming American midterms.

Noted on a news crawl, presumably provided by CBS News, for a local news stations, and paraphrased …

… 50% tariffs on Canadian goods including hockey sticks …

I wonder how many billions of $$ Trump thinks he’ll be reaping from that.

SHORT CYCLE

Due to the short news cycle for the South Carolina and Maine Senate races, Campaign Updates are anticipated to be issued more quickly than I had planned.

… AND LITIGATE, LITIGATE, LITIGATE!

President Trump’s continual claims that the media is against him may have come to a climax in the last few days, as the UK’s Daily Mail reports:

Major broadcast networks, including ABC and NBC, did not air Donald Trump‘s highly anticipated speech on election integrity, prompting the president to call for the revocation of their licenses.

Trump addressed the nation in televised remarks on Thursday night, announcing that the White House was planning to release documents claiming that China illegally accessed voter files to manipulate the 2020 presidential election.

Reports surfaced ahead of his speech that the topic would reignite election-interference claims, and the networks opted to air it on their streaming services rather than on their prime-time channels.

Trump called out ABC and NBC during the live remarks, claiming they decided not to air it ‘because of the fact that they don’t like the topic because they know how corrupt our system is and they don’t want to reveal it.

‘They and others in the media are part of a plot. They want to continue this fraud for whatever reason. They want to keep it going. They want to protect the radical left,’ he continued.

Unfortunately for the President and his allies in the Senate, he comes off sounding like a petulant child denied the attention he craves, not a responsible adult, and that’ll damage certain GOP Senate candidates. This’ll add to Democrats’ optimism, earned or not. Why do I say ‘earned or not’?

A Washington Post-Ipsos poll finds voters favoring Democrats by three points among registered voters overall, but the margin grows among those who are most motivated to vote. [WaPo]

Against this mob of fourth-raters, the Democrats should have a far larger margin. The fact that they don’t, as I’ve said before, suggests they haven’t got the hang of being in touch with the voters.

More on my thoughts on the President’s speech are here.

OFF TO THE RACES, ON TO VICTORY, RIGHT TO MICKEY D’S, LEFT TO YOUR HEART’S DESIRE!

Last issue is disgustingly ephemeral.

• South Carolina Senator Darline Graham (R) has been endorsed and encouraged by President Trump to run for the Senate seat she’s been appointed to in the Republican primary; as of this writing, she’s said nothing officially about doing so [Later: she has answered in the affirmative]. The primary is 11 August.Incidentally, Darline Graham is married but does not use her husband’s name, according to Wikipedia, so I’ll use Senator Graham to reference her.

  We do have a poll for the special election primary, and it’s from Emerson College Polling:
  
  So far, Senator Graham is not leading the pack, but this may be due to a lack of familiarity with her on the part of voters. The endorsement of the President, in one of the most conservative States in the Union, may move her up the ladder, although his pick for governor, Pamela Evette (R), lost in the primary, and is now a candidate for Senator Graham’s seat. The leader is Rep Ralph Norman (R), who decided to run for Governor and lost the primary, which is also true of Rep Nancy Mace (R). [Later: Rep Mace has dropped out.]

  So far, it looks like a real wild-card situation for the South Carolina GOP, and, not having an insider’s views, I don’t know that they should be able to do better. The late Senator’s death was ill-timed.

• WaPo is reporting the Maine Democratic Party is converging on Troy Jackson, a Maine legislator, as their replacement of Graham Platner. Making progress, yeah? Maybe not:
  

  Troy Jackson, a powerful Maine legislator now running for Senate, once angrily threw a water bottle in a meeting after he couldn’t persuade a lawmaker to vote his way.

  He yelled at another lawmaker, prompting her to post on social media that straight men were “too emotional” to be in politics. And he cursed and shouted in a meeting with the speaker of Maine’s state House, until she kicked him out of her office.

  During the six years Jackson presided over Maine’s Senate, until he left office in 2024, his temper was a feature of his leadership, and one that Democratic lawmakers discussed among themselves as a problem and even raised with the governor.

  Just can’t stay away from the bad boys? I’ll tell you what, if Senator Collins wins re-election, I know of an entire state Party that should be dissolved.

• Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has picked up the endorsement of progressive Senator Warren (D-MA). Notably, the Senator said,
  

  “He’s growing a movement of working people all across Michigan,” Warren says of El-Sayed in a video announcing the pick. “Michiganders deserve a senator who will fight for you, not for special interests running millions of dollars in TV ads to buy this seat.” [MS NOW]

  Which is virtually a declaration of war, internecine war, much like that of the Republican Party’s brutal internal fights. I’ve noticed progressives tend to be out of touch with the voters and, for that matter, the ways of liberal democracies. We may eventually see the Democratic Party break in two, between moderates and progressives. The social dynamics of such a split may put the Democrats of any variety in a permanent minority.

  I put a split at a 10% probability.

  Meanwhile, rival Rep Haley Stevens (D-MI) has the endorsement of the Congressional Black Caucus. I don’t know how much weight they swing with voters.

• Senator Moody (R) of Florida leads Alexander Vindman (D) 50% – 40% and State Rep Angie Nixon (D) 50% – 42%, according to a University of North Florida poll.

Yes, there was. Next, you’re wondering where my learned analysis might be?

Well, I’m a working dude^[1] that has little patience with mendacious politicians, and President Trump is considered, by many, to be among the worse.

But I have read maybe half of a transcript of the American President’s address to the nation last week, and skimmed another quarter of it. Here’s a confession: I do not have the knowledge base to fact-check the speech. There are many fact-checks out there, so I suggest, if you haven’t read one yet, go find such a work. If you wish to be assiduous on the matter, look for a non-American source that is not obviously biased. That may be difficult, so you may have to accept an American source. Perhaps CNN because, as Daily Beast (via MSN) notes:

Ben Ginsberg, a Republican election lawyer, told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins immediately following the speech that, despite the president’s claims and references to declassified documents uploaded online, there was still no evidence of any election result being incorrect.

“What stood out to me is that there’s still no evidence of a result of any election being incorrect,” Ginsberg told Collins.

“There still was not the documents, there still was not the evidence, although we’ll see what’s produced,” Ginsberg said, before responding to a number of specific claims Trump made.

Bold mine. Mr Ginsberg may not be part of the current Administration, but he’s still characterized as a Republican, and he responds with doubt about any and all of President Trump’s claims. That is notable for the independent voter, perhaps first time voter, uncertain of what to make of a fact-check.

But, returning to the topic of speeches and transcripts, as a social media user of 40+ years, communications in and of themselves can make my ears prick and stir feelings of doubt and concern. What do I want to see in a speech such as this? The essence should be mature speech patterns, a strong attempt to deliver an information and singular message, especially of shocking nature such as claims that the election systems are permitting illegal voting.

With that in mind, here’s two consecutive paragraphs from this transcript:

The cover-up of this colossal security breach is even more disturbing in light of the additional information showing that China engaged in other election related activities to undermine my first administration and our 2020 campaign. They did not want — they just didn’t want it. They fought like hell not to have a Donald Trump win, and for good reason.

As the documents we are releasing show, CIA reporting explicitly stated, and I quote, “In mid-2018, the Chinese Communist Party’s policy was to leverage all domestic and foreign elements that were opposed to the US president in an effort to reduce the US president’s votes and make him resign or prevent his reelection.” Isn’t that nice?

Note that last sentence, Isn’t that nice? Mockery is one of President Trump’s favorite communications weapons, just like the bullies who menaced younger children fifty and more years ago. Mockery is a tactic used by those who don’t have the intellectual tools and ammunition to keep up. It introduces ambiguity and intimidates its target, while warning neutral parties that they’d better join with the mocker, or run the risk of being a target as well.

It does not enhance strong, honest communications of difficult topics in the slightest.

The tone of the speech is to boost the ego of the speaker. Consider this:

Also, in mid-2018, China was working to influence the results of the US midterm elections, and later the results of the 2020 presidential election itself. Separately, in mid-2019, the Chinese government’s strategy against The United States was focused on undermining domestic confidence in the US president. They wanted to just make you sound like your president wasn’t so hot, when actually your president has done a great job, and they did everything possible to do exactly that.

They wanted to just make you sound like your president wasn’t so hot, when actually your president has done a great job, and they did everything possible to do exactly that. It’s a tell-tale of a man begging for praise for a self-evident greatness, and it tells the parasites of a human nature how to gain his favor. But for those of us paying for Trump’s War, his tariff disaster, and all the other mistakes, it speaks to his basic dishonesty and possible mental illness.

Overall, I thought the speech was yet another ego-boost. He covered many topics, including old grievances as well as excuses for his continual ill-performance. There’s little to no focus, and his sentence structure is constructed to focus attention on himself, rather than the problem at hand. It’s not the speech of a great, or even competent, statesman.

Just about every substantive paragraph has red-flags like this, at least the part of the speech I read; I think my reader will understand my admission that I didn’t finish reading the transcript because of intellectual nausea on my part. That such a pathetic specimen of a man is permitted on stage in his current role, and all that implies, is a mistake from which the United States will take a long time to recover.

¹ For newer readers, I’m a software engineer, obsolete, and still working.

The Estate (2026) is a glimpse into the world of British privileged classes and families that have lost their collective purposes. The Wellsleys feature a matriarch, Lady Sarah, a butler, Filippo, daughters Vanora, an actress, and Rachel, son and wastrel – I think – Bob, granddaughter Anna, son of a former family devoted to them, Gary. …

Let’s stop there and recap. The family has a ‘pile,’ an old estate that is falling apart because of failing fortunes and punitive taxes, and a set of attitudes that mesh poorly with the modern world. Gary’s family may have been devoted to and served the Wellsleys, but Gary himself is a super-capitalist and very well-off. The Wellsleys have tried to link one of the daughters to Gary, I’ve lost track of which, but Gary’s more interested in business than acquiring a wife.

Oh, and there’s a dying aunt or great aunt up north who may have a fortune to will to the family. Maybe.

There’s a lot going on here, as the impact of a family, at odds with the modern world, on its own members is illustrated, from random ingestion of drugs to trying to live in the world of theatre to holding all together.

But the auction may be the big thing, as they put the pile up for sale and hope someone will want this old symbol of power in the scary new world. But what happens when that scary modern world, which they don’t understand, itself founders on the rocks of greed and simple-mindedness?

I am not sure I like the climactic scene, but I’m not sure I disliked it, either. To some extent it seemed supernatural, which I generally find annoying when used as deus ex machina, but was it really supernatural?

This movie may mean more to the British viewer than the American, but we, as Americans, did enjoy it, if we were a little puzzled by some aspects.

Robert Wun again doesn’t play by the rules. Or those formal dances are going to some real wacky affairs.

The Iranian government continues to pressure the American government:

Telematics:

Telematics is an interdisciplinary field encompassing telecommunications, vehicular technologies (road transport, road safety, etc., as part of Intelligent transportation systems), electrical engineering (sensors, instrumentation, wireless communications, etc.), and computer science (multimedia, Internet, etc.). [etc etc] [Wikipedia]

Noted in some promotional material:

Fleet management is no longer just about GPS vehicle tracking and basic logistics. [Omitted] is a tech-first telematics leader, offering businesses a complete software suite of services to improve driver safety, track physical assets, and boost operational efficiencies, resulting in better customer experiences.

I suppose I should be embarrassed that I don’t know that particular word off-hand, but, to be honest, I’ve never tried to keep up with all the pitter-patter in my field.

When the hollyhocks are getting so tall I can’t reach their tops, they’re no longer hollyhocks.

They’re Triffids.

TWO BLACK HOLES, RIPPING THEM APART

Is it an example of spaghettification? Over there, picking a direction at random, is President Trump and his influence over MAGA and MAGA-inclined voters, while some other random direction has all the other voters who might be conservatives, but are furious because of the imposition of tariffs; the obstruction of the full release of the Epstein Files; people recently shot dead, wounded, or at least improperly jailed by incompetent ICE agents, and defended by Secretary of DHS Mullin; inflation; foreign conflicts and interference, along with incompetence at same; and continual lying, boasting, and all the other nonsense that erupts from the mouths of President Trump and his minions.

In between them is an exceptionally uneasy mob of GOP Senators and Senator-wannabes, pulled one way and then the other. If they stick with President Trump then they may not attain or be reelected; if they separate from him and resume their traditional role of judging the suitability of new laws, sometimes certifying and sometimes rejecting, then the President may attack them, and it’ll be tantamount to admitting their Party put an infamous incompetent in the seat of the Presidency.

And actions they felt were safe have become nightmares. Consider Maine. Joan Sebastian Guerrero was shot to death by ICE agents in Biddeford, Maine on 13 July, and a consequence of this was a protest of the tragic incident, including of Senator Collins (R) and her vote to certify the ICE budget.

The Republicans’ association with government-sponsored murder on the streets isn’t a positive, even if we consider the consequent prosecutions of the ICE agents responsible, because those people are still dead.

Pressure on GOP Senate hopefuls will continue to intensify.

DANCING THE TIGHTROPE

President Trump, snarling imprecations, tried to avoid biting off his own tongue by not signing the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act … but not vetoing it, either. This means it became law, on 11 July 2026, not through a Congressional override of a Trump veto, which would have been interpreted as yet another sign of Trump’s eroding prestige and influence, but through Trump’s lack of action on the matter. For those voters paying attention, this may seem to be the moral equivalent; the rest may wonder if the President is becoming overly-forgetful.

Will voters notice the difference? Well, in households that watch conservative news, it’s likely that Trump’s lack of action will be downplayed or even omitted. A strongly bipartisan piece of legislation will have passed, meant to increase the affordability of housing, and that will be celebrated. Unless Fox News makes the mistake of bringing on popular Democrat Pete Buttigieg on for an interview, viewers will probably not notice.

On independent and liberal outlets there will be a higher likelihood of a mention of Trump’s frantic behavior, and if viewers are concerned with affordability or fear the SAVE AMERICA ACT, which has been characterized as a vote suppression tactic, their attraction or loathing for Trump will be in accordance with their previous inclination. Whether that will extend to GOP Senate candidates will depend on the allegiance of said candidates to Trump.

Or so I’d expect.

CAN MAGIC FLOW FROM THE MENDACIOUS MOUTH AGAIN?

President Trump has announced that he’ll address the nation tonight, probably right after I post this, so my reader may know more than I.

The subject? Beats me.

But it’s worth remembering that the President’s entire life and career has been hallmarked by mendacity. That’s been his path to whatever he calls success, and so why should he stop now? I recommend taking nothing at his word. What can be verified should be verified. Ignore the rest.

Steve Benen would have me believe the President’s addresses of the nation have been failures; I wouldn’t know as I’m invariably busy when these addresses come through, and, like most politicians, he makes my skin crawl, only moreso. Maybe tonight, though, Thursday nights are more idle than most.

But the garden needs weeding.

THE SORDID DETAILS

Starring … ummm … I know I put those notes down around here somewhere….

• Is it usual in Texas to mistake money for something important?
  

  State Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic U.S. Senate nominee, raised a staggering $30 million from April through June, his campaign announced Wednesday — more than triple the amount brought in by his Republican opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton.

  The haul is a record total for a U.S. Senate candidate in the second quarter of an election year, Talarico’s campaign said, noting he has now raised more than $70 million from over 1.5 million donations, including 780,000 individual contributors, since launching his bid in September.

  “I’m honored to stand alongside more than 780,000 neighbors who are tired of being divided into teams — red versus blue, left versus right, rural versus urban,” Talarico, D-Austin, said in a statement. “We are uniting Texans onto one team to change this broken, corrupt political system and bring down costs for working families.” [The Texas Tribune]

  Money is flowing from out of state, which means Talarico’s collection may not be indicative of any kind of lead or popularity with relevant voters. Such is the nature of crowd-based funding for political campaigns. Perhaps there’ll be legitimate excitement when financial disclosure reports are filed.

  In other news, Steve Benen of Maddowblog believes Mr Talarico will be using Mr Paxton’s real estate holdings against him. In a time of housing shortages, the question might be whether or not someone needs eleven homes.

  I do have to wonder if the GOP is having buyers’ remorse over Paxton’s selection. It would certainly be a brazen rejection of President Trump, who endorsed Paxton, if members of the GOP suggested to the voting public that they write-in Paxton. Remember, that worked in Alaska when the Alaska GOP got out of control.

• In South Carolina, the passing of Senator Graham (R) has set off a frenzy as politicos consider whether they want to try to move up the prestige ladder or not. In possibly not-incidental news, Graham’s short-term replacement will be his sister, Darline Graham Nordone:
  

  A mother of two who has never held elected office, Graham Nordone was a political confidante of her older brother, who helped raise her after their parents died. She often appeared in Graham’s campaign advertisements and, when he ran for president in 2015, Graham, who never married, said his sister could play the role of first lady. [WaPo]

  Her intentions concerning the next term for Graham’s seat have not been stated. At least that I know. Whoever may be Belle of the Ranch seems to think a perfectly horrible replacement candidate is possible, but that translating to a Democratic victory remains doubtful to me.

• The Democratic nominee for the Maine Senate seat, Graham Platner, is no longer that. I thought he already had repudiated the nomination, but it’s official as of 10 July. According to Politico, there are at least eight candidates to replace him as the candidate du jour; none of the names are familiar to me, and none are Gov Mills (D). Quite sensibly, the Maine Democrats are running a debate today.
• 

  On The Issues: Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI).

  Michigan’s Senator Gary Peters (D) has endorsed Rep Haley Stevens (D) to succeed him, now that state senator McMorrow (D) has dropped out. The AP, at the above link, reports the endorsement is due to increased concerns in the Democratic leadership that Stevens’ rival, Abdul El-Sayed (D), a former state health official who holds MD and PhD degrees, and has led for most of the race, is too far left for Michigan voters. To the right is the On The Issues summation for El-Sayed, and that is a far ways left, I must say. However, Rep Stevens is only marginally more conservative; both earn the moniker Hard-Core Liberal from On The Issues. Also, again from the AP report, there may be concerns that his outspoken views on the Gaza War would repel independent voters. Reading the AP report on this contest reminds me of the local-to-Minnesota commercials I see from the two primary rivals for the retiring Senator Smith’s (D-MN) seat, Rep Craig (D) and Lt Gov Flanagan (D), in which each attempts to flay the other. Not that I disapprove of vigorous campaigns, but sometimes I wonder if they recall they’re on the same side, more or less.

  There have been few polls from known & respectable pollsters of late for Michigan, and the only polls in the last couple of weeks are from unknown Tavern Research, calling it an even race within the margin of error, and WDIV/Detroit News, giving Rep Stevens (D) a remarkable lead of 48% – 41%. I don’t know if I should take these polls seriously, but it’s all I have.

• Georgia Senator Ossoff (D) continues to appear to have the advantage over his challenger, Rep Mike Collins (R), as the latter is having staffing problems:
  

  In yet another humiliation to Georgia Senate candidate Mike Collins, he is losing his second congressional chief of staff, forcing him to open hiring for a third one.

  According to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, “Collins said Thursday he hired Andrew Eisenberger to lead his Congressional office. Eisenberger is a former deputy aide for Collins who most recently worked for American Waterways Operators, the national trade association for the barge, towboat and tugboat industry.”

  Collins, a MAGA-aligned member of Congress, makes the staff shakeup as he prepares for a tough campaign against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who has “repeatedly labeled Collins a ‘notorious bigot, antisemite and extremist,’ citing, in part, his ties to former aides Brandon Phillips and Kip Talley,” noted AJC. [Raw Story]

  It seems Erick Erickson has this race right. Election Day is a ways off, but right now it looks like Georgia GOP officials had best find others hopes to follow.

AND ENOUGH OF THIS

I hope to have more news than that paltry bit above for my kind readers next time.

UMB was down for some unknown period of time yesterday, recovering only after 10pm. My hosting service had a notice up saying they were having problems, but have not elucidated on the matter since.

At least, unlike the old days, I didn’t have to fix it.

But my apologies, regardless.

Imputation (American Census):

The process used to estimate missing or misreported data.

When information is missing or inconsistent, the Census Bureau uses a method called imputation to assign values. Imputation relies on the statistical principle of “homogeneity,” or the tendency of households within a small geographic area to be similar in most characteristics. For example, the value of “rented” is likely to be imputed for a housing unit not reported on owner/renter status in a neighborhood with multi-units or apartments where other respondents reported “rented” on the census questionnaire. [Census.gov]

Noted in “Federal court nixes challenge by Byron Donalds, GOP college groups to ’20 Census,” Mitch Perry, Florida Phoenix:

The Republicans alleged that a proper count would have given Florida an additional U.S. House seat and an additional vote in the Electoral College but for the “vast use” of a statistical method known as imputation. However, for the second time in six months, the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida dismissed the case, this time with prejudice, finding that any further amendment to the pleadings “would be futile.”