Category Archives: Uncategorized

Given the American economic status, Trump’s War, and a myriad of other factors, this should not be surprising:

Fox News averaged 4.3 million viewers Tuesday [Election Day] night during primetime coverage, 8 p.m.-11 p.m. Eastern. That number reached 4.7 million viewers when combined with sister channel Fox Business Network. But the number was sharply down from 2022, when Fox News led all networks with an audience of nearly 7.5 million. That night, Republicans regained the House of Representatives during the Biden administration. [Washington Examiner]

Given how the Fox News had allied itself, for more than a decade, with Donald J. Trump and his pack of grifters, extremists, and assorted ne’er-do-wells we call the Republican Party, the mess they’ve arrogantly produced and lied about incessantly, a big chunk of the Fox News audience has learned that listening only to news that plays to their preconceptions is an embarrassing and expensive mistake.

I expect Fox News is going to experience a sharp drop off in audience share that will not be reversed any time soon. This won’t be because President Trump is mad at them (“FoxNews Ratings are way down (27%!) because they’re spending too much time covering the Trump Deranged Dumocrats! All of those people who used to watch Fox, and no longer do, get it,” Trump said …), either.

It’s because trafficking in people who lie has no good ending. It’s like a diabetic consuming way too many fast sugars, first you feel great, but the backlash is a real bummer.

From “Giant bacteria could be living in your gut“, Jo Marchant, NewScientist (24 October 2026, paywall):

Our gut microbiome is home to trillions of microbes, but they may not all be microscopic. Giant bacteria, which can reach a centimetre in length, are generally found in niche environments, such as mangroves and fish guts. But now, microbiologists have detected signs of DNA from Epulopiscium, one of the largest known types of bacteria, in human gut microbiomes from around the world.

We’re composite creatures, you and I, but this information is more upsetting than some.

In the wake of the Republican blow out, Blue tsunami, whatever might be your favorite analogy for the results of Election Day two days ago, a CNN headline:

Republicans blame Iran war for historic midterms collapse

Right wing pundit and radio host Erick Erickson has a more prolix take on it, and may have washed his hands of the current crop of right-wingers:

Last night, the American constitutional system worked as designed and worked so well and so thoroughly that the party that lied to itself in 2020 that it had lost only because the election was stolen is now lying to itself that it lost only because of gas prices and war. Last night’s drubbing was too complete to be theft.

It was gas prices.
And it was the war.

But it was also calling affordability a “hoax.”
And it was also the corruption.
The incompetence.
…

And more and more. He really listed it out. But both strike me as being somewhat shallow thinking.

I think it’s worth stealing a few words from various memes from the last years for this Republican Party disaster and note that this is performative morality in action.

So many of the actions Erickson cites, such as Trump’s War, and many more involving the GOP-controlled Congress, such as the shirking of the formal responsibilities of Congress, and, peripherally, overt and covert social influencers, involve making and executing choices with a moral dimension^[1]. For example, knowing a fact about someone, as a social influencer, and deciding to divulge or conceal that fact, is a moral decision. Connected to this is the question of ascertaining the truthfulness of any such assertion.

A weakness of public morality, as presented in popular media, is the connection between personal morality, public morality, and consequences. That is, too often personal morality is presented as a set of rules to follow with little connection to the consequences in the public sphere.

And, to cut this dry diatribe short, I will say this.

The Republican Party membership, leaders to members who’ve achieved electoral office, to those who held positions of influence^[2], to the base, in too-large degree, either committed and/or tolerated actions whose moral dimension was negative. These actions are too numerous to enumerate, but we can lay down some categories:

1. Lies, including rumor-mongering concerning individuals and classes of individuals, as well as organizations;
2. Boasting;
3. Avariciousness, especially the ludicrous kind seen over the last few years;
4. Ill-choices in foreign allies;
5. Ill-treatment of traditional allies;
6. Ignorance on so many subjects, from laws to norms to history, without effort expended on remedying same;
7. Racism;
8. Right wing extremism;
9. Etc

Now, what I feel is important is this: everyone occasionally lies, but that’s not what’s happening here. We need to add the context: the transgressions, explicit and implicit, were liberally employed to advance the interests of those individuals, inflate their egos, and protect their preconceptions and, of course, their frail arrogance. Worse, they were employed as necessary; not with shame or hesitation, but with bellicosity and brazenness. Lie about the results of a war, or lie about their heroism in war, or education, again and again and again.

An entire Party, built on the above, is much like a positive feedback loop, the machine ripping itself to pieces as its movements are reinforced by repeated actions. That’s the Republican Party. I, and many other pundits much more ably, have been chronicling a machine set on self-destruction, powered by greed, for money, power, prestige, and other base motivations.

The Republicans, quite accidentally, put on a show. Much like a dramatic production, Americans uncommitted to the Republicans saw leading characters lie, cheat, and steal, and then we witnessed and, in a step beyond the hypothetical production, experienced the consequences of the actions of those characters.

I needn’t list the results; my reader should consult a good news outlet if they have fallen behind. The Republicans thought they were Zeus or Odin, and as they strode forth to grasp a Kingdom, it became the illusion of the desert, flowing away and leading them off the edge of the cliff, followed by the inevitable, ghastly tumble to their political extinction.

But, for a moment, let us speak of the base, as their role may not be entirely apparent, unlike their leaders’. These are the enablers of the Republican leadership, the loyal voters who’d not think of not voting Republican, or even of omitting those who seem repulsive^[3]. They had not the wisdom or courage to seek out alternatives to the nutrient-free pap being fed to them by influencers and partisan media, to recognize the mendacity, the incompetence, the prioritization of  unsuitable base motivations in their political leadership. Let me crassly label this behavior: It was, and remains, a secular sin. Americans have a moral responsibility to research the candidates upon which they vote, to come to sober conclusions, and to vote those conclusions. Our system is hardly perfect, but it’s what we have, and it’s always worthwhile to ask if the flaws of the system our flaws of the system, or, in reality, are flaws within ourselves. Such are the flaws of the Republican base. I do not assert the Democrats are much better.

Returning to the Republican leadership, those who think they still have the mantle of leadership have started the blame game, but they display their shallow understanding of the society in which they live by blaming mere tactics, rather than recognizing that the character flaws of those of great influence in their own Party, those who ignored the moral code, are really what led to their downfall. It may look and feel like a drama, but ignoring it as one might ignore the lessons of Richard III signals one important, forgotten facet of the lessons.

This drama happened in reality.

And this is why following morality is important. If everyone cheats, the entire system collapses, and one discovers the unstable heap upon which we live.

¹ For those puzzled by my use of terminology in relation to morality, no, I’m neither theologically nor philosophically trained, neither Sunday School nor Kant nor Camus has much influenced me. I’m an obsolete software engineer who’s read far too much, and constructed an informal moral philosophy without regard to standard terminologies of either theologians nor philosophers, much less their thoughts on the very matter. I endeavor to use common words with their common meanings, avoid language imperialism, and hope to point out contradictions and relevant facts that seem missing from the common discourse, as well as thoughts on commonly accepted philosophies for living that seem too easily received, at least to me.

² Positions of influence is not the same as a social influencer, which is modern terminology for a person who pursues the power and prestige of being an influencer, while usually lacking applicable skills, experience, or even knowledge, using modern technology to connect with those they wish to influence. A person in a position of influence, whether a cleric or a secular official such as an occupant of an elective office or a person of high achievement, often has applicable skills and knowledge. An example of a semi-obsolete position of influence would be the relative of a monarchical family. Those who meet either definition are included in Positions of influence for ease of expression.

³ The consequences of using such voting habits, or encouraging same, were eventually recognized by Erick Erickson in this post. Note the reactions to his criticisms of this habit:

Since I said I will not vote for Mike Collins [(R-GA)] for the United States Senate, [since defeated] the incoming fire has been intense. Listeners have called the show to tell me I have lost my mind. Readers have emailed …

His realization that Party Line voting can lead to unnecessarily flawed, even repellent, candidates, is accurate; that his own friends reacted with outrage to his recommendation that such candidates should not receive their votes suggests how strongly that particular habit is taught by the handlers of the Republican Party. So long as they thoughtlessly play their role, America will suffer and those who hold the strings will benefit.

A RUMBLE IN THE DISTANCE

In case my reader hasn’t been paying attention this morning, let me quote from CNN:

DEMOCRATS RETAKE CONGRESS IN STUNNING BLOW TO TRUMP

Long time readers are well aware that this result is not surprising; indeed, there’s some disappointments, such as in Idaho, where Senator Risch (R) has retained his seat with ease.

But this is a lesson from the electorate to both Parties. No matter how much Democrats and their leftish allies strain to play it as a mandate of their policies, in reality this is a solid rejection of the current extremism on the right; it would be a logical error to assume that this election justifies madness on the left. The Democrats have, despite Republican spittle, a good, if not great, history in the economic realm, better than that of the Republican Party since 1990 or thereabouts, and they should be riding that hard as a first priority.

Then comes cleanup. The priorities of the electorate are a great place to start: root out corruption, take back Congressional responsibilities such as tariffs, eliminate Trump’s tariffs, begin the process of rebuilding government services that the amateurs in the Republican Party destroyed in their arrogance, take steps to save Social Security.

Then comes open questions, such as Medicare for All.

And all this comes with very hard questions: how to terminate Trump’s War, how to ramp up aid to Ukraine, do we impeach Trump or would Vance be worse, and more.

There’s a lot of discussion of non-governmental projects to be had: how do we reform both Parties, starting with the Republicans? That’s where it needs to start.

And now I have to run off to work. As ever, feel free to email me with thoughts.

I had planned to write this post last Sunday, but never got to it. And, to be honest, it’s just not that important – the subject being Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT). Professional investors will only short DJT, and that’s always a chancy strategy, since losses are unlimited and gains are limited. That leaves wanna-be professionals and amateurs, and at this juncture, a month history of DJT’s price should be instructive.

A 36% drop in value of a company with only Truth Social, Truth API, and President Trump’s mouth to offer should be discouraging even when the market cap is $1.5B. Over the same period, memecoin $TRUMP dropped more than 22%.

As I noted here, taking financial instruments as a proxy for political prospects is a chancy business. But if I had to evaluate these, I’d say the lack of utility in the memecoin is more of a pure expression of such a political prospect, so that 22% drop must be dismaying to political partisans, if they take them as said proxies.

At this point, I’d hope that both financial instruments are only held by investors, a term I use very loosely, hoping to score political points and favors from the current President, such as corrupt contracts, pardons, and the like.

This is all a sordid business, I fear. No one should be surprised.

Here we go …

Trump: "This is a massive piece of pool"

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2026-11-02T19:17:29.123Z

Trump: “This is a massive piece of pool”

And that’s part of his message on Election Day Eve. It’s dementia, folks.

Philologist:

1. a person who specializes in philology, the study of literary texts and written records.
   An interdisciplinary collaboration between philologists, chemists, and computer scientists is yielding new insights about these medieval manuscripts, all written in different languages or scripts, and most in poor condition.
2. (especially in older use) a person who specializes in linguistics, especially historical and comparative linguistics.
   The origin of modern historical linguistics is often traced back to Sir William Jones, the English philologist who, in 1782, observed the genetic relationship between Sanskrit, Greek, and Latin. [Dictionary.com]

Noted in “Catherine Conybeare On Augustine’s Life And Faith,” intro to a podcast hosted by Andrew Sullivan, The Weekly Dish (paywall):

Catherine is a philologist with a particular focus on Augustine of Hippo. She’s both the Leslie Clark Professor in the Humanities and a Professor of Greek, Latin, and Classical Studies at Bryn Mawr College. The author of many books, her most recent is Augustine the African. We had an exhilarating afternoon talking about this African who helped frame the West.

BUT WHERE …?

We made our way through the jungle, machetes at the ready, the jungle watching with steely indifference.

Then I exhausted my adjectives and stopped to sit on a login despair. It asked for my password.

Like any working dude, I have my busy days, and, being older, sometimes I don’t feel quite so well. Yesterday was one of them. Looking at the polls, there’s not much of a surprise out there, so you didn’t miss much.

So I shan’t try to list them and draw intermediate conclusions. Tomorrow is the last day of official decision and voting, and counting finishes a few days later as the overseas ballots and that sort of thing comes in. No more intermediate thoughts.

Get out there and vote, it’s part of being American.

ANY MORE?

Sure. Post-game analysis is always fun instructive, and learning is part of being human. No doubt I’ll be amazed by something. I’m hoping it’s one of the Southern states deciding to try a different path forward.

See you then.

I suppose if you really stretch you might argue this article title is not a typo, but I disagree. From the print edition of NewScientist (10 October 2026, paywall), not the website:

Fossil mammal may have continuously replaced its teeth

No fossil replaces its teeth. Period.

THAT PESKY ANCHOR JUST WON’T GO AWAY

It’s always risky to interpret financial instruments as proxies, but today it’s worth noting there’s an apparently lack of confidence in Trump the Businessman, as DJT stock has dropped more than 10% in the last five days, and 34% in the last month. Trump’s memecoin, $TRUMP, dropped in excess of 5% and 22% over the same period, and that may be a better proxy since it’s little more than a virtual vanity plate. If it’s dropping in subjective value, that suggests the personage behind it is losing prestige, and fast.

Of course, to be fair, this is in the context of a cryptocurrency crime in excess of $6 billion. Long-time readers know I don’t, and never have, owned any cryptocurrency, and personally believe it’ll be collapsing down to zero soon enough. DJT’s involvement in cryptocurrency, whatever may be in their treasury and at World Liberty Financial, will undoubtedly weigh heavily on the minds of informed investors.

But I think the fall in investor faith in these two instruments is reflective of his erratic, narcissistic ways, and will continue to drag down many members of the GOP.

SCRATCH MY BACK, SCRA – HEY, COME BACK HERE!

It appears that some folks aren’t really fulfilling promises, once they’ve been thrust from the limelight.

THE COW BELLS ARE TUNING UP

And you thought cows played them without periodic maintenance and tuning? Of course, real music enthusiasts prefer trom – What? Oh, that’s right. Here ya go.

• Michigan State University (A/B) estimates Abdul El-Sayed (D) is stretching his lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R), 48.0% – 41.8%, MoE of ±2.9 points, in Michigan. Money quote:
  

  This support is largely associated with high levels of economic discontent, disapproval of President Trump, and concern about corruption.

  There are more than just numbers, with headings such as Michigan is viewed as falling behind. If you’re a Michigan reader, this might make for an interesting perusal.
  
  In the hidden struggle of Democratic divisiveness, El-Sayed and primary rival Rep Haley Stevens (D) are finding the outside world can cause conflict  even between fierce allies.

• Texas remains popular with pollsters. Maybe it’s that lovely barbeque.
  
  A2 Insights (B/C, moderate Republican lean) has James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R), 50.2% – 47.2%, MoE of ±4.9 points. They also have some lovely county-by-county maps, although not adjusted for population.
  
  Unrated ActiVote gives Talarico a 52.1% – 47.9% lead over Paxton, with a MoE of ±4.9 points. They note … Compared with our October 21 poll, Talarico’s lead widened from 2.0% to 4.2%.
  
  Quantus Insights (B/C, strong Republican lean) is swimming against the current, awarding Paxton a 48.7% – 47.6% lead, MoE a really rather largish ±6.4 points. In fact, margin of errors in this range tend to make me twitchy.
• Kansas voters seem to be gravitating to Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) in the Senate race, as according to a poll from WaPo/Schar School (B/C) Hamilton now leads Senator Marshall (R) 52% – 43%, with an MoE of ±3.9 points. However, they sound a cautionary note:
  

  This poll experienced significantly higher cooperation rates among registered Republicans than Democrats and additional signs of nonresponse error. See additional detail at wapo.st/pollarchive.

  Hmmmmmm. I would have expected the reverse, if anything. In fact, I think that’s a typo, because WaPo actually published an article on the phenomena … and stated it as I expected.
  
  Emerson College Polling (A-rated, with a mild Democratic lean) gives Hamilton a 49% – 45% lead over the Senator, with an MoE of ±3.5 points. As I would expect,

  “Notably, the difference in support between Hamilton and Marshall is the same as support for the Libertarian candidate, Graham, on the ballot,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Independents break for Hamilton, 59% to 25%, a 17-point increase in support for Hamilton among this group since last month.”

  Independents remain the most important voting bloc in this race, and they will break towards the Democrats as the Republican management of economics and foreign relations has been terrible. I don’t doubt the President’s chronic mendacity factors into their judgment as well, as it does into mine.
  
  In the endorsement race, Hamilton has added another: Republican Former US Senator Sheila Frahm endorses Adam Hamilton.
  
  And then we’re going to have to throw the flag and call a piling on penalty: A class action usury lawsuit filed Thursday accuses U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall and his former Great Bend medical practice of routinely charging patients illegal interest rates on unpaid medical debt.
  
  That cannot be spun in a positive way.

• InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) gives Florida Senator Moody (R) a 49% – 43% lead, MoE of ±2.83 points, over Angie Nixon (D).
• In Iowa, Rep Hinson (R) is definitely dancing frenetically:
  

  Hinson spoke at Trump’s rally in Iowa last week, and she has featured Trump in her ads. But she has also gone further than any other Republican running for the Senate in a red state this year to make clear that she will stand up to Trump, pledging to be “a thorn in his side if he’s wrong for our state.” [WaPo]

  The President is not just a spent political force, but now his presence, virtual as it necessarily must be, is a negative.

• In the race that might be the most dangerous to President Trump’s continued political survival, the Democrats are putting more dollars into South Carolina:
  

  Senate Majority PAC is putting $750,000 into digital ads to boost Democrat Annie Andrews, who they see as in an increasingly competitive position against GOP Sen. Darline Graham. The first spot could air as soon as Friday, and is set to attack Graham over rising costs and position Andrews as a fighter against corruption, according to plans shared first with POLITICO. [Politico]

  Losing an easily won race by endorsing a candidate because she’s easy to manipulate, rather than experienced and ready for the job? That’ll cause the President’s prestige to simply ooze rapidly down the toilet. If rallies and his presence and all he’s done still results in the loss of a red State that just months ago seemed like a Republican lock, then Trump, the emblematic amateur, will be shown to be utterly clueless and useless.

  “There is no true conservative to vote for in this election,” [Rep Ralph] Norman’s son, Warren, wrote. – MS NOW. When a conservative says that, it makes it very likely that the Democrat will win.

• Has former Senate candidate and Maine Governor Janet Mills (D) actually endorsed Troy Jackson? I can’t tell. Jackson didn’t even compete in the original primary, in which Mills lost to Graham Platner, and when Platner resigned the nomination and an emergency nominating convention was held, Mills did not participate and Jackson won. Mills seems carefully ambivalent on the subject. Perhaps her loss to Platner means it doesn’t matter, but the chatter about her doesn’t seem insignificant.
• Unrated Grayhouse provides a poll of lightly surveyed Arkansas, finding Senator Cotton (R) leads Hallie Shoffner (D), 55% – 39%, MoE of ±4.3 points. There’s a hook here, though: this poll funded by Senator Cotton. The final numbers for this race should be instructive.
• Another unrated pollster appears here for the first time, VoteNexus, and it was also sponsored, this time by Idaho candidate Todd Achilles (I). It finds Senator Risch (R) leads Achilles, 49% – 43%. Disregarding questions of fidelity, here’s the contextual quote:
  

  Independent Todd Achilles has pulled within single digits of three-term Senator Jim Risch in a state Donald Trump carried by 36 points. Risch is held below 50% on the ballot, 49% to 43%, and his job approval sits at just 41%, with one in five voters unable to rate his performance after nearly 18 years in the Senate.

  This poll is probably more accurate than the previous poll by Advanced Targeting Research, which gave Achilles a lead. Just a suspicion.

• Here’s another sponsored poll, but this time the pollster has a rating. Hart Research (A-, with a solid Democratic lean), sponsored by the Democratic candidate for the Louisiana Senate seat, Jamie Davis (D), estimates that Davis is tied with Rep Julia Letlow (R) at 45% apiece, with a MoE of ±4.5 points. Importantly,
  

  [Davis is] leading among registered independent voters by 23 points, the latest sign that Republicans’ control of the state may be falling apart. [gambit]

  All very impressive, especially with this addition … with Hart reporting [Davis] now has a 52% name recognition with voters. For comparison, Letlow is at 77%. And if you like sordid rumors and the like, the above article has more.
  
  But it’s all down to the voters, isn’t it?

• Is this a shocker in Montana, or merely a disappointment?
  

  [Former Secretary of Transportation Pete] Buttigieg’s endorsement of Bodnar, first reported by ABC News, is the latest in a string of Democratic efforts to swing the race toward the independent candidate, who some believe has a better chance to beat Republican Kurt Alme. Democrat Alani Bankhead has received numerous calls to drop out of the race in order to clear the field for Bodnar but has refused. [The Hill]

  I still see this as the liberals split between two candidates, no matter which one is real and which one is fake. Prove me wrong.

• And in Alaska … Governor Dunleavy (R) is seeing Sullivan double, and doesn’t like it. He’s threatening to jam up the election process due to alleged ballot-stacking:
  

  The Republican governor also did not say if the election will be certified if Mary Peltola, a Democrat and former U.S. representative, wins the race yet remains under investigation.

  “If we conclude there were things … that are illegal, we will act on that,” he told News Nation. “And that may in fact impact whether somebody is seated in the U.S. Senate.” [Anchorage Daily News]

  Unfortunately for him, ballot-stacking is not a new tactic in electoral politics, as I made clear in this Word of the Day. He has to keep in mind, too, that if he wants a further political career, jamming up the Senate election process will not put him in a good light, especially if Alaska is swinging Democratic.
  
  He’s barking now, but that may not last.

OLD FINNY, EH?

Sure, goodbye. But let me first say that was a lot of news to cover in one day. I think at this point the Kansas and Minnesota seats are firmly in the Democratic camp. I don’t wish to name any more States, as that would be speculative. Perhaps tomorrow I’ll list States and my guesses.

Or so it seems to me.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin detailed the arch’s potential security features as part of legal filings that the administration submitted ahead of a hearing on Friday. Both officials said Washington faces “continuously evolving” threats and that Trump’s planned 250-foot-tall arch — positioned by the south end of the Arlington Memorial Bridge — would offer a perch to coordinate officials’ security response, deploy snipers and take other steps to defend the region. [WaPo]

Yep, put your snipers up there where a single FPV drone armed with a fair-size bomb can kill them easily. Have these guys not learned anything from the world leaders in defense, Ukraine?

It’s a sop to a demented, or worse, old man’s vanity.

Ballot-stacking:

Ballot-stacking is a political campaign tactic in which a party or candidate deliberately recruits additional candidates to run in an election, often with the goal of drawing votes away from an opponent. [Political Dictionary]

Not a particularly evocative name, but the entry does give a historical entry of 1946 involving John F. Kennedy. Noted in “Eyeing Alaska, Trump and Republicans pick a fight over campaign mischief they can’t win,” Steve Benen, MS NOW:

There’s a qualitative difference between genuine electoral scandals and routine campaign mischief. Asking an official who oversees a state elections system to “find” 11,780 votes that don’t exist is disgraceful on a historic scale, but looking for candidates with names similar to an opponent is a tactic with a deep American pedigree. It’s common enough to have earned a familiar name: ballot-stacking.

Benen cites similar tactics, contemporary with the Alaska contretemps.

ONLY A FEW MORE DAYS TO MAKE THAT DECISION

Unless, like my Arts Editor and I, you took advantage of early voting.

BUT THEY ONLY HAVE A C+!

Yes, the CNN/SSRS partnership spat out a collection of polls today, and, despite their low rating from Silver Bulletin (C+ with a big Democratic tilt), I’ve made them part of this informal summary that informs me of the status of the various Senate races. Maybe Steve Benen’s claim these are high-quality justifies it, but more likely the proximity to Election Day, and need for material, motivates me to include these possibly dubious polls.

AND ON TO THE NEWS

I don’t feel too serious today, not like yester … day.

• Texas polls … Texas Southern University (unrated) is giving James Talarico (D) a 49% – 47% lead over Ken Paxton (R), MoE of ±2.19 points. Notably,
  

  54% of Independents intend to vote for Talarico, with 38% intending to vote for Paxton, 6% for Brown and 2% undecided.

  CNN/SSRS is more generous, with James Talarico (D) leading 49% – 43%, MoE of ±4.2 points.
  
  Finally, Belle of the Ranch has a commentary on the latest Talarico controversy supposedly roiling Texas. Assuming she’s an AI, sarcasm appears to be a challenge.

• In New Hampshire, UMass-Lowell (A-, strong Democratic lean) estimates Rep Pappas (D) leads former Senator John Sununu (R), 48% – 41%, with an MoE of ±5 points. This is congruent with a previously reported St. Anselm poll.
  
  Agreeing with me on another point,
  

  Trump receives low marks as president from a majority of respondents in both polls. Among likely Granite State likely voters, 61% disapprove of his job performance. Notably, 22% of self-identified Republicans and 24% of respondents who said they voted for Trump in 2024 disapprove of the job he is doing.

  In the Bay State poll, 74% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while 25% approve, resulting in a -49 net approval, lower than the -36 net approval recorded in a 2020 UMass Lowell/YouGov poll of Massachusetts registered voters.

  This may explain why Trump’s rallies are confined to States that he’s confident still support him.

• In Alabama, Blueprint Polling (B/C with a mild Republican tilt) has Rep Barry Moore (R) leading, 47.8% – 39.5%, over Everett Wess (D), MoE of ±3.72 points. Big lead? No. The last poll for which I have a record, from the Alabama Daily News, gave Moore a 15 point lead. Blueprint is mediocre at a B/C rating, so I don’t know that I would trust them, push come to shove, and Wess making up 8 more points seems unlikely as well. Still, if this is accurate, I must take off two hats, first to Wess for perseverance in the face of overwhelming odds, and second to President Trump, for managing to offend his, arguably, most loyal State.
• CNN/SSRS has Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading former Rep Mike Rogers (R), 49% – 42% in Michigan. That’s a bigger than normal lead for El-Sayed.
• CNN/SSRS has Maine Democrat Troy Jackson (D) leading incumbent Senator Susan Collins (R) 49% – 45%, with an MoE of ±4.5 points.
• CNN/SSRS has Kansas Democrat Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) pulling away from Senator Marshall (R), 49% – 45%, with an MoE of ±4.5 points.
• Mississippi does seem to be in play, or at least so the tea leaves are spelling out:
  

  Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is spending $500,000 with Mississippi Democratic Senate candidate Scott Colom in a coordinated ad buy, according to details first shared with Semafor. [Semafor]

• So what’s going on in Louisiana?
  

  I’m going to be doing a major TeleRally for Julia Letlow, who is running for the U.S. Senate and is spectacular, and our fantastic Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, on Monday evening, LIVE. …

  MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP [Trump’s Truth]

  Perhaps Trump’s Truth is a head feint site? I’ve never heard of it before. I do see the note on the left of the page: Our site archives all of Donald Trump’s TRUTH Social posts, providing a searchable index of his statements, video transcripts, and image descriptions. Or is Letlow in trouble and looking for a boost? Hmmmmm. I note my last Louisiana update concerned Danny Cherry making the case for an upset.

• co/efficient (B with a heavy Republican tilt) estimates Rep Hinson (R) leads Josh Turek (D) in the race for the open Iowa seat, 48% – 46%, with a MoE of ±3.05 points. Interesting, but perhaps worthy of doubt.
• East Carolina University Poll (B/C with a tangible Democratic lean) gives South Carolina’s Senator D. Graham (R) a 51% – 47% lead, with a credibility interval, much like an MoE, of ±3.7 points.
  
  Meanwhile, WaPo reports that President Trump’s decision to aggressively endorse and back Senator D. Graham still has South Carolinians stirred up:
  

  Republicans remain fractured over President Donald Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate five days before the election, with Democrat Annie Andrews surging in polls as Trump returned to the state on Thursday to again make his case for Sen. Darline Graham.

  “All the places we’re in trouble in the country, and he’s coming to Rock Hill, South Carolina,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-South Carolina), who lives in Rock Hill and challenged Graham for the nomination, said in an interview. He called her a “propped-up candidate” and said Trump’s team is trying to “shore her up” in what is usually a safe Republican seat.

  Rep Norman bitter? Sure he is. But the facts that Darline Graham (R) was selected to replace her brother, that Graham and far-right extremist Rep Ralph Norman (R) were the two credible competitors, is reflective of the toxic culture of the Republican Party these days. I’ve discussed this many times, and it comes down to a shift in judging candidates, discarding and even loathing such traditional factors as experience, excellence in governance, and skill in compromise, while focusing on allegiance to ideology. If one can do the anti-tax jig or the anti-abortion waltz or the anti-regulation flapper dance, well then you’re well-positioned to win a nomination; if you have experience or skill at compromise, well, then you’re a swamp monster who should be ejected. Only if you’re easily ordered about and manipulated and even blackmailed are you acceptable to Trump and his ilk.
  
  The Republicans made a huge error when they followed such guttering torches as former Speakers Newt Gingrich (R-GA) and Paul Ryan (R-WI), and I hope they can toss out the idiots promoting these metrics and return to, you know, traditional metrics.

• And, finally, have the Democrats let the Alaska Senate seat slip through their hands?
  

  Republicans are launching investigations into Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola’s campaign amid allegations that she and other Democrats colluded to recruit spoiler candidates in her highly competitive race against Sen. Dan Sullivan.

  Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) said late Wednesday he would order an investigation into whether Peltola should face criminal charges or civil action, and the House Oversight Committee sought testimony from two staffers reportedly involved in the alleged recruitment scheme. [WaPo]

  I’m not precisely sure what the nature of criminal charges might be, and neither is WaPo or its experts, but this is really up to the Alaskan electorate. Do Alaskans resent the alleged trickery? Or are they indifferent and will vote how they’ll vote regardless? We’ll find out on Wednesday or even Thursday, when Alaska results usually report.
  
  But I can’t help but notice the usual hyperbole. Sen. Sullivan told Fox News host Sean Hannity that the allegation against Peltola’s campaign was “a scandal at the highest order.” No, the entire Flood the primary to pick the shitty candidate is of a higher order, and both sides have performed that particular ritual.
  
  Still, what if you’re an Alaskan voter repelled by both Senator Sullivan and former Rep Peltola? What to do?
  
  Vote non-Senator Sullivan.

ANY FINAL WORDS?

Not really. I could discuss lame duck impeachment proceedings, but I see that as requiring a very bad result for Republicans, and a coordinated desire to take revenge. Getting that by a pathetic Speaker Johnson (R-LA) seems unlikely.

Still, if Letlow of Louisiana fails in her bid to replace Senator Cassidy (R-LA), for example, then Cassidy might encourage House colleagues to push through an impeachment, and then Cassidy could have his revenge for being primaried by a Trump-endorsed candidate by leading the Senate court proceedings to impeach Trump.

It’s low probability, but certainly not impossible. And the message it sends to future incompetents would be quite the service to the Nation.

No final words, really.

FIN

A sad day for the Star Trek fandom, and anyone who admired his skills.

Open weights:

Open weights are the publicly released learned parameters of a trained artificial intelligence model, principally its weights and biases. In an artificial neural network, weights are numerical values that determine how strongly inputs contribute to the network’s calculations. Publishing these values allows others to download and use the model, while permission to modify, fine-tune or redistribute it depends on its license. The term is commonly applied to large language models, diffusion models and other generative artificial intelligence.^[1][2] Open weights is contrasted to open-source artificial intelligence, which considers the public release of not only parameters but the model’s source code, training data, evaluation results, intermediate checkpoints and technical documentation. [Wikipedia]

The page carries a warning that some of the text may be AI-generated, which is prohibited in Wikipedia articles, and not a practice I condone. Noted in “Anthropic reveals $80 billion loss, surging revenue as it prepares to go public,” Gerrit De Vynck and Miriam Waldvogel, WaPo:

But not everyone is convinced. Some financial analysts have questioned the companies’ abilities to ever become profitable, given the huge costs involved in training AI and the close competition from open-weights AI models, which are nearly as capable as the high-end AI from Anthropic and OpenAI but are much cheaper to operate.

The analog to open source.

Or is it more appropriate to suggest the digital to open source?

Never mind me, I’m a bit short of sleep. Nudge nudge, wink wink.

THE FREIGHT TRAIN MAY BE ALMOST HERE

It’s less than a week to Election Day. I think it’d be repetitive to note that President Trump is a drag on Republican candidates, but in inverse correlation to the redness of their State. However, there’s a chronological decay factor involved in which, as time progresses, Trump supporters become disaffected and drop out of the movement.

The realization that they’re associating and supporting a grifter and incompetent can be discouraging, although the perceived elevated social position will slow many down in leaving the … group.

MARGIN OF ERROR

I have to say that any MoE (margin of error) greater than 5 points makes my hair itch, because the larger the margin of error, the less utility I impute to the poll. Even if it’s a highly rated pollster, such as Marist Poll, I still scratch mightily at my hair.

There. Venting done.

Oh, and The New York Times/Siena College is giving a range for an MoE of ±3.9 points to ±4.3 points. Annoying.

WHEN DO I DISCARD POLLS?

Generally, unknown pollsters stand a better chance of being cited than any pollster Silver Bulletin rates below a B- or B/C. But there are no guarantees.

WHAT’S WITH THESE REPEATED LINKS TO AN ECHELON INSIGHTS DOCUMENT?

Echelon Insights issued a single document that covers multiple polls. You’ll have to search in the document for State-specific results.

But what’s also interesting, and makes me wonder if I should omit these results, is the wording of the questions, of which I’ll quote the Florida example:

[QFLSenateBallot_Voted] Who did you vote for in the election for the U.S. Senate?
[RANDOMIZE 1-3]
[QFLSenBallotFull] If the 2026 election for the U.S. Senate were held today and you had to
make a choice, for whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-3]
[QFLSenateBallotFullLeaner] And if you had to choose today, which of the following
candidates would you vote for? [RANDOMIZE 1-3]

Is this just meant to be used before and after Election Day?

Keep this in mind when reading Echelon Insights results. This may just be a matter of my ignorance, as I’m not a polling professional, of course.

AROUND THE FAR CURVE

We can only hope, eh? Each hoofbeat banging the drum … oh, sorry.

• Maine remains a toss-up in the Senate race, as The Trafalgar Group (B with a heavy Republican lean) sees the race as Senator Collins (R) barely leading Troy Jackson (D), 47% – 46.5%, Undecideds at 6.5%, with an MoE of 2.9%.
  
  Marist Poll, on the other hand, gives Jackson (D) a 49% – 47% lead over the Senator, but with a MoE of ±6.6 points. Sheesh.
  
  Echelon Insights (A-), with a more extreme result, has Maine Senator Susan Collins (R) trailing Troy Jackson (D) 51% – 44%, with an MoE of ±6.3 points. That MoE makes me nervous about that result.
• Michigan also remains a toss-up, as Michigan State University (A/B) gives Abdul El-Sayed (D) a 47.7% – 44.2% lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R). MoE is ±4.4 points.
• South Carolina remains shockingly tight as, according to Targoz Market Research (B-, strong Democratic tilt), Senator D. Graham (R) leads Dr Annie Andrews (D), 47% – 46%, with a MoE of ±2.77 points. A statistical tie, as they say.
  
  The New York Times/Siena College (A, tilt to the Democrats) has the two candidates tied at 48%.
  
  The Citadel (B/C with a slight Democratic lean) shows Senator D. Graham (R) leading 43% – 39%, with a MoE ±4.5 points. However, this is of Likely Voters; the situation is reversed with Registered Voters, with Dr Andrews leading 40% – 35%, and 20% Undecided. That strikes me as odd, and could be a deciding factor if the registered but unlikely voters can be persuaded to vote.
  
  In endorsement news, Dr Andrews has received the endorsements of two former South Carolina governors – one of them a Republican.
  
  Senator D. Graham (R) is allegedly receiving support from pro-data center super PACs, and Dr. Andrews is trying to use that to tar the Senator. Given the general anti-data center mood of the country, Dr. Andrews may succeed.
  
  Finally, vanquished Graham rival Rep Ralph Norman (R) sounds fairly bitter about this entire business of replacing the late Senator Graham, and neither D. Graham nor Andrews is spared as he mutters about manipulation. Thing is, change the State to Alaska and he may be right. I haven’t read this New York Times article due to it being behind a paywall, but from summaries it does sound like the Peltola campaign has been engaged in manipulative behaviors.
• Texas‘ Senate race remains close, but may be showing signs of the Democratic lead strengthening. A N+ Univision/YouGov (the latter has a solid B rating along with a solid Democratic lean) poll gives James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R), 50% – 45%, with an MoE of ±3.8 points. Further, in the Latino community the lead is 55% – 37%. The fumbling amateur-hour Republican leadership appears to be losing the Latinos who were leaning towards the Republicans, and that’s in the face of offensive, as in offending, behavior by the Democrats.
• A Glengariff Group (A/B with a Democratic lean) poll in Michigan suggests Abdul El-Sayed may be building a lead, with an estimate of 51.4% support vs former Rep Mike Rogers (R) having 45.1%, with a MoE of ±4.0 points.
• Echelon Insights (A-, with a slight Republican lean) has Ohio Senator Husted (R) and former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) tied at 47% apiece, with an MoE of ±5.2 points.
  
  Suffolk University (A-, tilt to the Democrats) gives the former Senator Brown (D) a lead of 46.6% – 43.8% over Senator Husted (R)
• Echelon Insights (see above) has Florida Senator Moody (R) leading Angie Nixon (D) 51% – 43%, with an MoE of ±5.0 points.
  
  The New York Times/Siena College (A, tilt to the Democrats) gives Senator Moody a 50% – 44% lead over Angie Nixon.
  
  
  

  On The Issues: Angela Nixon (D-FL).

  ActiVote (unrated for unknown reasons) has Senator Moody leading 53% – 47%, MoE of ±4.9 points. Here’s an observation that explains Moody’s lead:

  Moody holds her side of the spectrum more firmly than Nixon holds hers. Nixon takes 99% of the left and Moody 92% of the right, but Moody takes 89% of the moderate right against Nixon’s 77% of the moderate left. On top of that, Moody wins the center by 61% to 39%.

  Florida’s an older state, and Nixon is not a moderate.

• Echelon Insights (see above) in Iowa has Josh Turek (D) leading Rep Hinson 45% – 43%, with an MoE of ±6.5 points. Really? This trend towards larger MoE makes me nervous. Are pollsters polling fewer and fewer voters, or are they more nervous about their electorate models?
• Echelon Insights (see above) has Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts (R) leading Dan Osborn (I) 47% – 46%, with an MoE of ±6.3 points. With that sort of MoE, it practically is shrieking I’m irrelevant!
• In Minnesota The New York Times/Siena College (A, tilt to the Democrats) gives Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan (D) a 54% – 40% lead over Michelle Tafoya (R). Did Tafoya lose her balance on the Trump and/or abortion tightropes, thus alienating her base? A 14 point lead is not what we’ve been seeing from SurveyUSA. Or is this evidence she’s tied strongly to Trump, because Trump’s approval rate has dropped from 32% to 20% in Minnesota, from the same poll, over the last, oh, six weeks?

FINNY

Not many of these left, thank goodness.

Rumble:

Most elephant communication happens below what a human ear can pick up. The signature call is the rumble, a long slow vibration with a fundamental frequency usually between 12 and 20 Hz in adults, lasting a few seconds, with most of its energy in the infrasonic range. Field researchers describe standing close to one as a pressure in the chest rather than a sound. Calls including harmonics span an enormous range, from around 5 Hz up past 10 kHz. [We Love Elephants]

Noted in “Elephants imitate each other when they produce deep rumbling sounds,” Christa Lesté-Lasserre, NewScientist (10 October 2026; paywall):

Elephants communicate using a rich repertoire of body language, but also a wide range of sounds. These include their iconic trumpet call, and also throatier roars. The most common call is the rumble – so low-pitched it is often undetectable by humans – which can travel up to 10 kilometres, transmitting long-distance information that can potentially include the identity of the caller and what’s happening at the time.

Joyce Poole at Elephant Voices, a non-profit organisation based in Washington DC, that promotes the study and protection of elephants, says scientists have long been intrigued by the way elephants will rumble together in choruses. Studying those complex sounds, however, has proved extremely difficult because it is hard to pick out any given rumbling elephant in the chorus – what researchers call “the cocktail party problem”.

This one’s self-explanatory. I mean, more or less; what this guy was thinking, I don’t know.

“I wanted to say, Mr President, for the last 10 years, you kept this country more safe than any other president, ever,” [Joe] Mitchell [, Republican candidate for the House seat representing Iowa’s 2nd district, ] said at the rally, The Independent reported. “And they’ve never given you the Nobel Peace Prize, by the way, which is a disgrace.”

With that, Mitchell produced a certificate encased in a gold frame. “So, what I came up with, Mr President, is the new award,” the candidate added. “It’s called the ‘Man of the Century Award.’ ”

As Mitchell urged the “artificial media” to get a good shot of the certificate, he claimed Trump “has more for humanity and for America than any other president ever.” [People]

Will Mitchell ever live this down?

Although you wouldn’t know it.

THE BILLIONAIRES SEEM OBTUSE

Meaning they aren’t seeing what’s there to be seen, which is this:

• Elon Musk: … bringing his total [political] giving this cycle to more than $442 million. [Politico]
• Jeff Yass: … has now invested nearly $110 million to boost GOP candidates in the midterms. [MS NOW]
• A super PAC funded by the cryptocurrency industry: … raising the group’s total spending in the [Ohio Senate] race above $55 million. [Politico]
• And this bunch.

What are we seeing? A massive transfer of wealth from people who think they can afford to spend it to, well, there’s going to be hands out everywhere to get a slice of this pie. Many of them will be honest business folks, providing some service such as making the ads, broadcasting, etc, but also the odd hand from the smiling grifter.

I will refrain from saying the election is the most magnificent grift ever concocted to relieve befuddled billionaires of their riches, because I honestly don’t believe it. But it’d make for a great movie.

I suspect this transfer of wealth to purchase the intangible will reverberate down the decades, though, as billionaires fought to buy votes, win or lose, discovered most Americans don’t sell their votes, and incidentally put on display all those eccentricities that they can afford to fund, and discover that, no, they’re not the bright new ideas that everyone praises, but are rejected by voters.

Then they’ll scamper home, metaphorical wallets a bit skinnier, and themselves a bit more learned. Maybe.

I have never understood the cachet of being a billionaire. Who wants to interview all those bodyguards and avoid the State Fair?

OH, DO YOU LIKE MY JEWELRY?

Yes, it’s an anchor. Five tons or thereabouts, so said the jeweler.

Along with the Ohio debacle of Trump and Vance, as noted below, Trump continues to engage in corruption. Don’t take my word for it, take the word of … most of the electorate:

IT SEEMS FRANTIC OUT THERE

I’ve been doing this since … I don’t remember. Nor do I recall the news this late in the election cycle being quite so exciting. I think the Republicans were told they couldn’t possibly lose, and so they’re trying their darndest not to lose, and, yet, the electorate rejects them heartily. I’m thinking there’s a lot of puzzled members of Congress, GOP caucus.

While I’ve caught you reading that bit of vapid prose, above, I shall remind you that MoE is Margin of Error, below. My fingers tire of typing it.

WELL, THAT WAS QUICK!

Yeah. Sure was. And me falling further and further behind on my non-political reading, too.

• Emerson College (A rated with a Democratic tilt) gives Senator Mike Rounds (R) of South Dakota a 50% –
  42% lead over challenger Brian Bengs (I). In contrast, Mason-Dixon Polling (A- with a slight Republican lean) gives Rounds a larger 56% – 37% lead, and Public Opinion Strategies
  (A, slight Republican lean) has Rounds lead at 54% – 37%.
  While I doubt
  Bengs will be winning this race, keep in mind that six years ago, Rounds won by 30+ points, with a MoE of ±3.5 points. If Bengs keeps this gap below ten, that’s a major lesson to South
  Dakotan Republicans that independents do not approve of their message or methods.
  Will they understand it?
• Emerson College (A rated with a Democratic tilt) gives James Talarico (D) of Texas a 48% – 46% lead over Ken Paxton (R), with a MoE of ±3 points. Money quote:
  

  The economy remains the top issue for a plurality of Texas voters at 39%, up three points from September, followed by immigration at 16%, threats to democracy at 13%, education at 12%, and healthcare at 9%.

  Fox News (using Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, A- with a pronounced Democratic lean) estimates the pair is tied at 49% each, with a MoE of ±2 points.
  The San Antonio Current reports the Russians are messing about in the Texas race:

  Russian hackers are once again attempting to influence U.S. elections, this time putting Texas on the front lines, the New York Times reports.

  According to intelligence officials speaking to the Times on condition of anonymity, an infamous Russian influence operation is attempting to meddle in Texas’ U.S. Senate race by spreading deepfake videos alleging misconduct by Democrat James Talarico.

  As ever, the Internet becomes less and less trustworthy.

• Alabama has a surprising poll:
  

  New polling shows Republican U.S. Rep. Barry Moore has a 15-point lead over Democratic nominee Everett Wess in the race for Alabama’s U.S. Senate seat.

  An Alabama Daily News and Gray Television poll of 500 likely general election voters found that nearly 50% would support Moore if the election were held today, compared to 35% who plan to vote for Wess. About 15% of Alabama voters remain undecided in the race to succeed U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville. [Alabama Daily News]

  The surprises are three-fold. First, Moore has not yet exceeded the 50% level at this point in the race. Second, his lead is only 15 points. For context, the previous Alabama Senatorial race
  was won by then-candidate Katie Britt (R) by 36 points in
  2022. Third, and a reflection of #1, 15% of Alabama voters have not yet made a decision.
  While it’d be a major upset if Wess is representing Alabama in the Senate next year, his performance makes clear that even Republican strongholds are feeling the effects of economic incompetence and political extremism, and its incompatibility with the American mainstream.

• A major political brouhaha has broken out in Ohio, and it may end up affecting the Senate race. Gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R), trailing rival Amy Acton (D) with two weeks until Election Day, released a political ad of the ad hominem variety:
  

  [Ramaswamy] said Tuesday he is putting $4 million behind a 60-second advertisement that features video of Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur, calling her daughter a liar and urging Ohioans: “Don’t let her become your governor.”

  Acton, 60, has not had contact with her mother since she was 12 years old. She and her brother were removed from Arthur’s home after a grand jury indicted Arthur’s second husband on a charge of raping Acton. [WaPo]

  Many politicians of both Parties have condemned the attack ad, including Senator Husted (R), who is running for election to his seat (he was appointed to it after VP J. D. Vance had vacated it in order to fulfill his new responsibilities, so technically it’s not reelection):

  “I would not have run that ad,” Sen. Jon Husted (R), who faces former senator Sherrod Brown (D) in a hotly contested race, said in a statement to the Associated Press that was also obtained by The Post. [WaPo]

  That may or may not be enough in an atmosphere of intense economic and social distress for a significant portion of the electorate. It was certainly the proper decision by appointed Senator Husted.
  But two key Republican politicians are supporting the beleaguered gubernatorial candidate: Vice President Vance and President Trump. I’m not surprised that Vance would make a wrong choice, as he seems to have a tin ear when it comes to politics; and he was selected by President Trump for this position, and Trump rarely, if ever, selects anyone more talented than himself. However, Trump himself usually is more canny when it comes to political currents. However, he also must retain the votes of MAGA members, and …

  The MAGA faithful, including Donald Trump Jr., have given an approving signal boost to Ramaswamy’s ad, which began hitting the airwaves Tuesday, across social media.

  His decision to support Ramaswamy risks the votes of independents, which Republicans must have in most districts in order to win their contests. Those votes were, for the most part, already in doubt; this
  may push them irretrievably over the edge. They may even be accompanied by moderate Republicans who’d rather vote for reasonable Democrats than extremist Republicans. For more on this topic,
  Belle of the Ranch has an amusing take.
  In other Ohio news, the cryptocurrency industry finds former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is a hard bug to squash:

  A super PAC funded by the cryptocurrency industry is dumping an additional $9 million into an effort to block Sherrod Brown from recapturing an Ohio Senate seat, raising the group’s total spending in the race above $55 million. [Politico]

  Former Senator Brown (D) ran the Senate Banking Committee when he wasn’t former, and the PAC doesn’t want to see him in charge of regulating the banking industry again.
  In numerical news, Brown retains his lead:

  A Fox News survey of likely Ohio voters finds Brown leads Husted, 52% to 47%.

  Brown’s advantage is anchored by his stronger personal standing, with his favorability rating 2 points above water (50% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Husted’s rating sits 13 points underwater (42% favorable, 55% unfavorable). [Fox News]

• Nebraska is also home to the hunting grounds of the cryptocurrency industry:
  

  The crypto PAC also disclosed Wednesday that it is upping its efforts to help Senate Republicans in Nebraska, where it is spending to oppose independent candidate Dan Osborn and help GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts. The PAC disclosed $4.1 million of additional spending against Osborn Wednesday, bringing its total in the contest to $10.8 million. [Politico]

  Money has always been a part of American politics, but the key difference between cryptocurrency and other special interests seeking support in Washington is that cryptocurrency has persuaded a significant
  number of institutions that they are, well, money.
  The rest are just industries.

• If Senator Dan Sullivan (R) of Alaska loses his re-election bid, the Trump
  Administration is threatening
  to blame … Dan Sullivan. And sue to seat Dan Sullivan rather than whoever legitimately wins the seat.
  Quite the insult to the Alaska citizens who the President appears to think are incapable of distinguishing one Dan Sullivan from another.
• In Maine Fox News (using Beacon
  Research/Shaw & Co. Research, A- with a pronounced Democratic lean) has Senator Collins (R) as well as Democratic challenger Troy Jackson (D) at 49%.
  In other news, former Senator Joe Manchin (R-WV) thinks Senator Collins (R) should change that (R) to an (I). The way I see it, she’s had a goodly amount of time to do so, and has not availed herself of the opportunity. I don’t think she will unless the Party becomes quite toxic.
• If my reader wonders how GOP candidates deal with a Trump political rally in their state, this CBS News item reports Rep Hinson’s (R) strategy for managing Trump during his visit to Sioux City, Iowa. Incidentally, I’ve visited Sioux City many a time, but it’s been a decade since my last. I hope their urban renewal effort has been successful.
• In New Hampshire a new St. Anselm poll (A/B with a slight Republican lean) gives the lead to Rep Pappas (D), 50% – 43%, over former Senator John Sununu (R), with a credibility interval, similar to MoE, of ±2.4 points. Interestingly, neither seems liked:
  

  … both have net-negative favorability ratings. Pappas is viewed favorably by 41% of respondents and unfavorably by 56%, while Sununu’s ratings stand at 40% favorable and 56% unfavorable, reflecting the broader challenges facing both candidates.

  Is it provincialism or with reason beyond His allegiance is to the other side!?

• President Trump is rallying in Mississippi on Monday. This may mean rumors of a major upset in same may be accurate, since Mississippi should be safely Republican. I like Democratic candidate Scott Colom’s reaction:
  

  “[Senator Hyde-Smith’s (R)] scared to answer why she voted to cut health care, why she betrayed our farmers, and why she blocked the release of the Epstein files,” Colom said. “If she won’t answer for any of that, I challenge Donald Trump to a debate. Mississippians deserve to know why they are being betrayed.” [Mississippi Today]

  Or perhaps not. Wedgewood Polls, according to the Magnolia Tribune, … admitted its polling was fabricated in a stunt “to demonstrate the vulnerabilities, lack of oversight,
  and overall low barrier to entry in the modern political polling industry.” A Twitter/X link was provided, but the page was missing.
  Hmmmmm. I’m really looking forward to the Mississippi results, just to see which party may be guilty of mendacity.

• Finally, if you’re a Minnesota voter who’s heard that Lt Gov Flanagan lied about her membership in Phi Beta Kappa, MPR is here to set you straight. Rasmussen Reports (B+) gives Flanagan (D) a 48% – 45% lead over Tafoya (R), 7% undecided, MoE of 3 points.

VERY FIN

I decided to skip InsiderAdvantage in this Update because I found my source, 270ToWin, had just posted a collection of polls from them that I had already sourced. I’ve also skipped polls from Verasight because Silver Bulletin has no knowledge of them; ditto TPOR.

It seems to me that a rogue is an adjective on an adventure.

Loathing for experts and specialists, people who know how to properly do things, comes through loud and clear in this incident:

Ordinarily, moving historical items[, such as General Eisenhower’s globes used during World War II,] within the building is a deliberate process overseen by trained curators. Instead, Hegseth’s staff dispatched its own team to relocate an Eisenhower globe. They lost control of the artifact and dropped it, sending the globe crashing onto its base and impaling the fragile shell near Antarctica, according to those familiar with the incident. The resulting gash appears to be several inches wide. [WaPo]

A couple of pundits are trying to tether this to Hegseth’s blunders in Trump’s War, and it’s not much of a stretch. But what catches my attention is the connection of this to the ongoing theme, and source of disasters, in the Trump Administration: Amateurism Triumphant. This Administration isn’t organized around merit, competency, expertise, or training. It’s organized around loyalty to Trump and his unstable temperament, and what is best thought of as arrogant amateurism: the inability to admit that someone might be better than oneself, and thus charging foolishly, arrogantly into situations that require real expertise.

Even if that’s moving an old globe. But that could be invading another country. But experts do not parade loyalty about, but rather their expertise, so arrogant amateurs won’t use them.

Yes, it’s funny. Cruelly funny. And the joke’s on us, and the world.

SET IT TO A DRUMBEAT: EPSTEIN, GUILFOYLE, GRENELL, … TRUMP

Yes, this story is quite repetitive:

• The Mississippi Senate race has the capacity to be the biggest shocker of the election season, not only because it’s been Republican for decades, but because it’s so … bloody … quiet. Thus, we have to read the tea leaves goat entrails. The biggest tea leaf is Senator & Pastor Raphael Warnock (D) of Georgia, who has been campaigning in Mississippi this season.
  

  Raphael Warnock is racing to get Democrat Scott Colom elected in deep-red Mississippi. It’s part of his bigger bet on the South.

  Colom, a charismatic local prosecutor, is within striking distance in the polls of unseating Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. And in the absence of more dedicated resources, Warnock himself is trying to fill the gap by directing money and donors to the race. [Politico]

  They speak hopefully of being within striking distance, but the truth is that the pollster is Wedgewood Polls, which appears to be new, at least to Silver Bulletin, which knows nothing about Wedgewood. So is candidate Scott Colom (D) really closing in on Senator Hyde-Smith (R)? Are they on the edge of a catastrophic upset? I think the fog is rolling in and no one’s sure.
  
  Is this a political smear?

  The Mississippi Free Press reported Friday that Scott Colom’s U.S. Senate campaign says they have verified that a mugshot of the Lowndes County District Attorney from 2001 shared by the Hyde-Smith campaign “is fake,” further claiming that it was “likely being generated by AI.”

  However, Magnolia Tribune has learned that the mugshot shown here is indeed real. [Magnolia Tribune]

• In Montana there may be a major shake-up, albeit ten or more days ago as I missed it: Concord Public Opinion (A/B) suggests Kurt Alme (R) has lost the lead in the Senate race for Montana’s to-be-open Senate seat, with Seth Bodnar (I) now at 37%, Alme at 35%, and Alani Bankhead (D) tied with Undecided at 13%. However, there are two concerns. As a friend points out, the sample size is small at 405 respondents, resulting in a MoE of a largish ±4.87 points. Secondly, who sponsored the poll? Seth Bodnar. Neither concern outright condemns the poll, but they can both be markers of a poll not worthy of trust, as does the fact that Concord hasn’t much of a history.
  Bankhead’s sinking in the polls may possibly be explained by the attack by the former Montana Democratic Party chair noted in the previous Campaign Update report on Montana.
  This tidbit from Concord is surprising only in that it’s not worse:
  

  President Trump is unpopular in Montana: President Trump is viewed negatively by a majority of Treasure State voters; he has a -17-point net favorability rating (41% favorable / 58% unfavorable). Trump’s negative favorability rating is in line with national polling averages.

  More polls of Montana, please. Oh, here’s one now, but sadly it’s from Peak Insights, which is unrated by Silver Bulletin, despite claiming to have 40 years of experience. They estimate Alme has a comfortable lead with 44%, while Bodnar has only 22%, and Bankhead is at 19%, with a MoE is ±4 points. Another poll showed up yesterday from Quantus Insights, but a rating of B/C casts some doubt on their estimates of Alme having 43.8%, Bodnar 28.2%, and Bankhead 20.6%, with an MoE of ±4 points.
  
  It’s not so easy to judge the state of mind of Montana voters simply by consulting a poll aggregation site.

• Last week I missed a new KSTP/SurveyUSA (A) poll of Minnesota’s Senate race. It shows Lt Gov Flanagan (D) picking up the pace, giving her a 45% – 42% lead over Michelle Tafoya (R), with a credibility interval (much like an MoE) of ±4.2 points, so this appears to be likely a tie. The Trafalgar Group (B) has Flanagan leading at 48.1% – 44.6%, MoE of ±2.9 points. These are congruent with the Minnesota Poll of the last report on Minnesota.
• FROM THE ANNALS OF POOR STRATEGY. Man, you gotta be careful calling in the big guns when you’re in trouble. I wonder if Senator Marshall (R) of Kansas is having a case of the regrets in the dusty wake of President Trump’s rally speech:
  

  Donald Trump: And I also gave Kansas a waiver to sell E15 [a mixture of gas and corn used as an alternative fuel by many vehicles in the Upper Midwest, a source of income to corn farmers] all year round. And with Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E15 permanent. But if Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it. That’s it. I’m only doing it for him. That’s a big deal for Kansas, actually. [Roll Call]

  How many Kansans realized they were the recipients of a mean-spirited threat, something akin to blackmail? How many will knuckle under? More from Steve Benen here.
  
  But the Senator may be in more trouble, but this would be obscure: his latest FEC filing suggests no one is being paid to work on his campaign.
  
  Numerical news: InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) gives Senator Marshall (R) a 48% – 47% lead over Pastor Hamilton (D), MoE of ±2.83 points.

• This news may not have immediate consequence, but it may be even more important. Senator, and incidentally former state AG, Ted Cruz (R) of Texas is attempting to assist Ken Paxton (R), current state AG, in his Senate campaign.
  

  Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is not up for election this year, but he is campaigning across his home state as though he is.

  Rather than pitching himself, Cruz is making a spirited case for the Republican Senate bid of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cruz, a conservative firebrand, is trying to rally the party’s base in a year where Republicans fear many of their voters will stay home. He has poured money into supporting Paxton, introduced the attorney general to his large network of donors and even gave him sartorial advice after President Donald Trump mocked Paxton’s appearance despite having endorsed him. [WaPo]

  An association with scandal-ridden Ken Paxton (R), even were he to win, might put such a blemish on Senator Cruz that he’ll lose his next re-election run. Or forced to not run for President.
  
  In numerical news, Marist Poll (A-, Democratic tilt) has Talarico leading Paxton, 47% – 45%, but with a largish MoE of ±4.9 points. Pollster University of Houston (B/C) gives James Talarico (D) a 48% – 46% lead over Paxton, MoE of ±2.19 points, a statistical tie, while new pairing CBS News/YouGov (the latter being a B) has Talarico in a 51% – 49% lead, MoE of ±3.5 points. InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) runs against the grain, giving Paxton a 49% – 48% lead, MoE of ±2.83 points, as does Quantus Insights (B/C with a solid Republican tilt), with a very tight 47.2% – 46.7% lead for Paxton, and an MoE of ±3.6 points.

• Strange bedfellows in Ohio?
  

  A GOP-aligned super PAC has more than tripled its investment in the Ohio Senate race over the last week as it seeks to boost a socialist candidate — an apparent attempt to sink former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s chances. [Politico]

  No. The Socialist says … we condemn this attempted deception of voters. Both Parties are guilty of similar nonsense in past elections.
  
  Unknown pollster Bowling Green State University gives former Ohio Senator Brown (D) a 48% – 42% lead over Senator Husted (D), with a MoE of ±3.95 points. Interestingly, the gubernatorial race has Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek Ramaswamy (R), 50% – 44%. Will there be downballot consequences for Republicans running for House seats? Keeping in mind that we don’t know the quality of this pollster.
  
  But Marist Poll has an A- with a Democratic tilt, and they say Brown has a 48% – 44% lead over Senator Husted with a largish MoE of ±4.5 points. Much like Bowling Green, they give Acton the lead in the gubernatorial race, 50% – 43%. While in isolation it appears the Senators are statistically tied, the predilection of most pollsters to find Brown leads makes me think he may win.

• I consider the re-election of Senator Ossoff (D) in Georgia to be certain, but President Trump threw a rally for his opponent, Rep Collins (R), and shot what little is left of his credibility concerning previous elections into orbit:
  

  At a rally in north Georgia, Donald Trump again claimed that the 2020 election in Georgia was fraudulent, alleging that the election of US senator Jon Ossoff was illegitimate.

  Ossoff, who faces US congressman Mike Collins in November, does not represent Georgia’s values, Trump said.

  “And he was never elected,” Trump added. [The Guardian]

  I suppose this’ll be repeated ad nauseam as Trump tries to summon his God to the task of denying realities.

• South Carolina’s Senator D. Graham (R) is in trouble and getting some help.
  

  President Donald Trump will campaign for Darline Graham tonight at a mid-week, midterm rally many see as a last-minute effort to push her over the top in her unexpectedly close race against Democrat Annie Andrews.

  A year ago, the idea of a Republican president campaigning for a Republican incumbent in one of the state’s most conservative regions would have been unthinkable. Trump won South Carolina by nearly 18 points just two years ago. [Palmetto Politics]

  If you can call it help. Trump’s return to one of the most Republican states in the Union speaks volumes as to his unpopularity, as well as the failure of his policies.
  
  This may be reflected in this Trafalgar Group (B) poll, which finds Senator D. Graham (R) leading Dr Andrews, 48% – 46%, MoE of ±2.9 points, so it appears to be a tie. South Carolina Republican Party officials must be experiencing a hair standing on end moment.

• Speaking of help, here’s former Senator John Sununu (R), running to once again represent New Hampshire in the US Senate, putting his relationship with President Trump on display.
  

  John Sununu in a new TV ad: “The way [rival] Chris Pappas [(D)]tells it, I’m President Trump’s long-lost son. I’ve never even met the man.”

  Includes video! But, in case anyone needs a hint, this is another example of Republicans walking away from the power of the Republican Party.
  
  A poll from National Public Affairs (B/C) gives Rep Pappas (D) a 50% – 43% lead over the former Senator John Sununu (R). Incidentally, the report is labeled as being for Iowa.

• National Public Affairs (B/C) finds Rep Hinson (R) leads Josh Turek (D), 47% – 44% with a MoE of ±3.8 points in Iowa. However, the Iowa gubernatorial race has the Democrat by 5 points, which might give Turek a boost at the actual polling station.
  The Trafalgar Group (B) also gives the lead to Rep Hinson (R), 45.9% – 44.2%. 6.4% are Undecided, so they’re the decision makers.
  co/efficient (B, with a heavy Republican tilt) also gives the lead to Rep Hinson, 48% – 45%, with a MoE of ±3.32%, while handing the governor’s contest to Sand (D).
  YouGov (B with a Democratic tilt) has it a very tight race at 47% – 46% for Turek, with a MoE of ±3.1 points.
  Marist Poll (A-, Democratic tilt), however, gives the lead to Josh Turek (D), 48% – 45%, MoE a largish … ok, really big … ±6.6 points. Gubernatorially, the Democrat Sand leads Republican Lahn 52% – 45%, which may drag a few more votes over to Turek at the voting station.
• Marist Poll (A-, Democratic tilt) is giving Abdul El-Sayed (D) a 50% – 48% lead over Rep Mike Rogers (R) in the Michigan Senate race. From the same report:
  

  The Democrats running for Congress (52%) are +6 points against the Republicans (46%) on the ballot among Michigan likely voters. A majority of independents (54%) report they are supporting the Democrat on the ballot.

  While the +6 points favoring Democratic candidates should be encouraging, frankly the small imbalance in Michigan independents is quite disappointing. I wonder what Michigan Democrats have been saying of late to offend them.
  Rasmussen Reports (B+ with a substantial Republican tilt) gives El-Sayed a small lead of 46% – 44%.

• WEAK CANDIDATE OR STARTLING REVELATION? And does it extend to the Oklahoma Senate race?
  

  The Democratic Governors Association announced Tuesday it is investing half a million dollars to flip the governor’s mansion in Oklahoma — a state the president won by 34 points in 2024.

  The race between Republican former state Sen. Mike Mazzei and Democratic state Rep. Cyndi Munson is a statistical tie, according to recent polls. That includes an internal Munson poll from Workbench Strategy obtained by POLITICO, showing Mazzei has an edge but within the margin of error. [Politico]

  And Politico has an observation that will play an important part, I think, on Election Day:

  The investment also spotlights yet another Trump-backed Republican winning a bitter primary only to struggle in the general election — a vivid example of why many in the party have been nervous about the president putting his finger on the scale.

  That doesn’t really seem to apply to the Senate race, however.

• In Nebraska a poll from National Public Affairs (B/C) suggests Senator Ricketts (R) leads Dan Osborn (I) 49% – 46%, with a MoE of ±4 points.
• A new pollster pair, MDW Communications + Edge Communications, polled Florida:
  

  [Senator] Moody [(R)] leads the Senate race by 5.2 points. Ashley Moody 47.6%, Angie Nixon [(D)] 42.4%, with 10% undecided.

  How accurate are they? These numbers don’t seem plausible, but sometimes events on the ground can impact polls quickly. Significantly, University of North Florida (A/B, heavy Democratic lean) just published a poll for the Florida Senate race, and they have similar numbers: 49% – 45%, with a MoE of ±2.81 points. Is a day or two short of two weeks time enough to make up 5 points? Or will this be similar to the last Rick Scott (R) challenge, where it looked close until Election Day, when Senator Scott won by 13 or so points? Well, honestly, the real question is whether President Trump will flub away those five points through stubborn lying.

• In Alaska, Rasmussen Reports (B+ with a substantial Republican tilt) gives former Rep Mary Peltola (D) a 44% – 42% lead over Senator Sullivan (R).
• And Maine doesn’t miss out on all the fun: InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) gives Troy Jackson (D) a 49% – 47% lead over Senator Collins (R), MoE of ±2.83 points.
• Finally, these guys claim the Senate race in New Jersey, featuring Senator Booker (D) and Justin Murphy (R), is within the margin of error, according to a recent poll. Who ran the recent poll? They don’t say. This is a lesson in recognizing bad commentary.

THEY’RE STARTING TO CALL THEM

Media outlets are beginning to implicitly call races that, at the start of the election season, were not considered safe, and that’s bad news for the Republicans. In this Update, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper (D) is considered the unexpected shoe-in by outlets Carolina Forward and the Winston-Salem Journal.

SORRY IT WAS SUCH A LARGE LUMP

News is coming faster than anticipated. Good night!