Unsightly Mental Blemishes

More of the prancing dance, isn’t it?

Trump doubles down on feud with Italian Prime Minister Meloni, insisting she asked for G7 photo  [CNN, paywall]

Yep, more hand waving, please don’t look at … this:

Strait of Hormuz is closing again. Few ships were leaving the waterway anyway  [CNN, paywall]

That’s right, Trump’s much touted peace-treaty, in progress, is hitting rocks and sinking as Iran claims both Israel and the United States are violating the cease-fire. Meanwhile, Trump is busy with, frankly, sleazy implications concerning the prime minister of Italy, claiming she begged for a picture with him.

Seems unlikely, even for the leader of a far-right Italian party.

And how about that Reflecting Pool debacle?

Algae, peeling blue material, conspiracy theories: Reflecting Pool takes national spotlight [CNN, paywall]

Could it be deliberate? Sure, it could be, although I have no way to prove one way or the other.

And there’s other news, but look for the news that’s important, news that invalidates claims of military glory. Trump’s failures such as the Reflecting Pool renovation will generate outrage from some, but the real threats to his Presidency are the Epstein Files and Trump’s Lost War. He wants you to think Meloni adores him and the Pool was sabotaged, rather than consider the possibility that his name is quite popular in the files of a pedophile, and that a war he chose to initiate because he desires gratification above all, that is causing inflation crippling to many citizens he’s supposed to protect, is being lost due to his incompetence.

No, governance is never easy, and if you think it is, you’re a schmuck or quite young.

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.
– H. L. Mencken

Antimacassar:

An antimacassar is a small piece of fabric placed over the back or arms of chairs and sofas. At first glance, it may seem like a simple decorative cloth, but it actually has a very practical origin. In the past, people used hair oils that could easily stain furniture, and antimacassars were created to protect upholstery from these marks.

The idea began in the 19th century, when a popular hair product called Macassar oil was widely used. This oil left greasy stains on furniture, especially on headrests. To solve this problem, households started placing removable cloth covers on chairs, which could be washed or replaced easily. [The Styles Magazine]

I was discussing protection of my computer room chair arms from the desk with my Arts Editor when she used the word antimacassar, and I had to ask what it meant. I’m not sure the delicate lace fabric depicted at the link will be adequate, but my previous chair suffered significant damage from the desk, over maybe fifteen years.

This warning caught me off-guard:

“I said I want juniper berries on my pizza!” he snarled. “Not olives! And stop that sniggerin’!”

Running Time (1997) is a surprisingly well-written story about a flash-gang of thieves, by which I mean a criminal gang assembled, on a moment’s notice, as a plan comes together. The jailed leader, Carl, has just been released from prison, out early for good behavior, and the first thing he does is set in motion his next heist, planned over five years, in partnership with good old dependable, didn’t-get-jailed, buddy Patrick.

Who sweetens the deal with a prostitute, Janie, for Carl.

Patrick, who delegated responsibilities to the wrong person.

Yes, this is a salutary tale of why thieves sometimes keep on thieving, giving the audience a taste of the thievish culture of immaturity and flawed understanding of how things work. It’s nicely done.

But the real charm of this story is that it’s told as if it were done in one long take, from Carl being picked up outside the prison by Patrick to Carl’s pell-mell escape, not only from the cops, but arguably from his old life of consorting with failures to a new one. The only break that I recall comes when Carl passes out once or twice. The old Greeks had something similar called the theory of the three unities, and it ties the theatrical elements together.

I won’t recommend Running Time, as there’s a lack of sympathetic characters that leads to a certain puzzlement over why the audience should care, but if you’re looking for something comprehensible, noir, and a bit off-kilter, you could do worse. Enjoy the wordplay. But be careful about watching the sex scene, it just about gave me a crick in the neck.

Back in late January / early February, President Trump was rattling his cage with his cries for lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, in the belief that such an action would rev up an economy that was sputtering, as the news stylists like to say. As Fed chair Powell’s term was coming to an end, Trump nominated a new chairman, Kevin Warsh, with the obvious hopes that Warsh would reverse the Fed’s policy of higher interest rates, which was in place in hopes of controlling inflation.

Into this interlude I’ll insert an old memory of running across a piece of spam – not email, but real life paper mail – that promised that President Bush, that’s #1, not #2, would be re-elected because Fed chairman Alan Greenspan would ensure a roaring economy for Bush. And this would hike up certain stocks, and you should buy them, yada yada.

President Bush, for the record, was not re-elected; instead, the rascally Bill Clinton won the election. Fed chairmen are independent of the President for a reason, and that’s to formulate monetary policies that benefits the nation – not necessarily the President.

Back to the story, Fed chairman Warsh ran his first meeting yesterday, 17 June, and did not dictate the lower interest rates Trump demands. Indeed, he doesn’t appear to have tried:

Warsh deflected repeated questions about why the Fed held rates while so many officials signaled hikes ahead, citing his opposition to “forward guidance.” The decision to hold was unanimous, and the Fed didn’t consider hikes at its meeting, he said. [WaPo]

And for those betting on lower interest rates at the next meeting?

Nine of the 19 officials who participate in Fed policy meetings penciled in at least one rate increase by the end of the year, up from zero in March, when most Fed officials still anticipated cutting rates.

The Fed is an example of distributed design, the hallmark of which are decisions made not by a central authority, but by the responsible local, or autonomous, node. The isolation serves to mitigate the influence of non-germane factors on the decision-making process, even in the face of stacking the deck, to use an old euphemism for sometimes illegal manipulation of starting conditions and complexities. Trump selected Warsh as Warsh is known to favor lowering interest rates in general, but Warsh did not come through.

But, and more importantly, this is yet another loss for President Trump, blatant evidence that he doesn’t understand how American government, politics, and economics works, and that he’s convinced that he does.

He shouldn’t listen to himself.

While I don’t expect this particular failure to be followed immediately by him being chased out of office, it is certainly another brick in the wall – and it’s very hard to know when MAGA will reform itself and realize that its only way back to respectability will be via participating in the removal of Trump from office. It’s best to think about this in a time series of probabilities; as it becomes clear that Trump’s War may have resulted in an Iranian victory, as many conservatives have begun to mention, I expect the probability of Trump leaving office, probably on a Trump airliner heading out of the country, will jump.

And then comes the rebuilding of our politics phase, as his minions, both in the White House and in Congress, start having to make decisions about policy.

Today the brace came off my right hand and I can almost type normally; the post-surgical swelling is slowing me down a little, but this is a welcome step forward and, having gone through this with the left hand, I’m confident a full recovery, or so close it doesn’t matter, will be coming in the next month or two.

What does this mean for my readers? I’ll be a trifle more prolix, or chatty, but the impact is really on the other side of the keyboard, where I’ll be writing much more quickly.

Some headline writer needs their head examined:

Trump beats a longtime adversary with a late Georgia endorsement, and other election takeaways [CNN]

This is a reference to Rep Collins defeating former football coach Derek Dooley in the Georgia primary runoff. Governor Kemp (R-GA) had endorsed the latter, while President Trump endorsed the former.

Except Trump didn’t. Not until 14 June. The primary date was 16 June.

Endorsements are traditionally a manner in which one political participant, whether it be a powerful individual such as a (ex-) governor or a union leader, confirms the ideological congruency of the endorsee to the endorser, and that the endorsee is competent to the job. Governor Kemp has been campaigning for Dooley since August of 2025, when he endorsed Dooley.

President Trump has replaced that definition with a definition that feels like a weapon, because he has proclaimed many times, on many occasions, that those he endorses win, and win by a landslide. This is false, of course, with his endorsement of failed Iowa gubernatorial candidate Randy Feenstra (R-IA) as just one example. But it does result in Republicans often doing the dolphin dance, looking for that faux-magical endorsement by putting themselves in front of the camera, often at Fox News, in order to catch and hold

So this was a clash of a callow President’s “philosophy,” if sops to his ego combined with ties binding winning candidates to his ankles qualifies as a philosophy, with the old definition of a politician simply saying he likes a candidate’s ideology, competency, merit, and bona fidēs.

Obviously, the two should not be compared; when Trump is pushed out of office, his definition should be discarded by everyone, no matter how much he trumpets its importance.

And CNN really blew it with that headline.

Remember the Sunday UFC event at the White House?

World Liberty Financial will play a key role in UFC^® FREEDOM 250 as the Presenting Partner of a new $250,000 Performance of the Night bonus pool, which will be awarded to UFC athletes selected for standout performances during the event.

The bonuses will be paid in USD1, World Liberty Financial’s U.S. dollar-backed, compliant stablecoin and one of the fastest-growing stablecoins on the market. USD1 bonuses will be awarded in addition to the traditional Performance of the Night bonuses presented to athletes by UFC President and CEO Dana White following the event. The USD1 payout will be awarded independently of the previously announced Crypto.com $1 million bonus pool, which goes to the two athletes who compete in the Fight of the Night. [businesswire]

I hope the fighters, or whoever is in charge of their financial planning, immediately converted the cryptocurrency to dollars. Yes, yes,  I know: stablecoins … but …

Despite the name, stablecoins are not necessarily stable. Stablecoins rely on stabilization tools such as reserve assets or algorithms that match supply and demand to try to maintain a stable value. [Wikipedia]

This CNN headline sums it up:

‘Trump has surrendered to Iran’: Some prominent GOP hawks fear Trump just caved

But let’s pull a bit more detail:

When President Donald Trump launched the Iran war in February, he risked alienating the non-interventionist base he had spent a decade cultivating.

As he now tries to extract himself from the highly unpopular war, it looks increasingly like he might inflame the other side of his base — the foreign policy hawks with whom he suddenly found himself in-league.

While there are few hard details of what’s actually in the memorandum of understanding, or MOU, with Iran, those hawks are openly worrying that Trump gave away too much in the name of trying to end the war. They’ve made no secret that they fear Trump signing on to a nuclear agreement like the one struck by the Obama administration in 2015, which they (and Trump himself) derided as too weak for more than a decade.

Which is to say that the neocons, who often advocate for wars such as the Iraq War, can’t stand the thought of compromise. Maybe it doesn’t fit into their narrative of the invincibility of the American military, or the Mighty Hand of God that supposedly backs the Republicans and America – and, remember, they’re selling themselves to their audience, not measuring their pronouncements for their future accuracy. When Trump fails to deliver on his promises, their “success” is threatened – and he may be inspiring more backers to join the former backer crowd, these days mostly made up of Epstein Files worriers.

Conservative pundit Marc Thiessen, who I hardly read, is uncharacteristically angry, reports MediaMatters for America:

[H]awkish Fox contributor Marc Thiessen expressed concern about a deal on Monday’s edition of Fox & Friends, the president’s beloved morning show. Thiessen, who has reportedly advised Trump privately about the war, called last week for a “decisive attack” on Iran to “finish the job.”

“We don’t know the details of the deal yet,” Thiessen noted on Monday. “We don’t know what has been agreed to, and the nuclear part is still to be negotiated. This is just an agreement to negotiate the nuclear side. So that’s one problem.”

Numerous pundits are expressing discomfort over the failure to release the MOU (peace framework) for their salivatory satisfaction. I see Trump delaying a release for personal tactical reasons, hoping to avoid more accusations of being a fool.

He may end up bombing Iran again on Friday.

Much like Thiessen, radio host and pundit Erick Erickson wants more war, but he has reasons:

Donald Trump started a war with Iran, and now he is ending it on terms worse than the status quo he inherited. That is the plain shape of what happened, however the White House and its surrogates dress it up.

The war came at a price—lost lives, oil markets convulsing, allies rattled, and an economic shock that rippled from Tehran to global commodity prices. What started as a strong campaign to end a regime is ending with subsidy and surrender by the Americans. We are choosing to give up.

The ending arrives as a memorandum of understanding, signed on Sunday, whose full text the administration has been conspicuously slow to publish. When a deal is good, you release the text. When you guard it, you are managing a story rather than reporting a victory. Senator Lindsey Graham, no dove, has asked for the document and admitted he is concerned Iran reads the agreement differently than our own negotiators claim.

The big reason?

And here is the failure that unites Obama and Trump, the blind spot neither administration will name: Mahdism, a religious belief that Iran must set the stage for the return of the Twelfth Imam, who disappeared from the planet as a child, but will return. The Revolutionary Guard promotes ideological zeal over competence. Devout believers in a militaristic Mahdism control Iran’s three pillars of power—its militias, its missiles, and its nuclear program. These are men for whom the destruction of Israel is not policy but prerequisite, a barrier to be removed so the Twelfth Imam may return. This is not opinion. It is the presuppositional foundation on which the regime operates.

I have no idea if that’s anywhere near the truth, but I will note that Obama’s approach had a good chance of driving these folks, if they exist, out of power – peaceably.

It’s also notable that a portion of the evangelicals in the Republican Party have, in broad outline, similar beliefs. They believe they can precipitate the end times, a religious doctrine of how the Christian universe ends. It involves rivers of blood, so my reader can evaluate for themselves.

Of course, The New York Times is no ally of Trump, but I’ll finish with their biting summary of the likely final results:

On balance, Iran emerges the strategic winner of the four-month war. It did suffer substantial losses, including much of its navy, air force, military-industrial capacity and political leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who was killed on the war’s first day. With the war ending, however, Iran’s leadership can begin rebuilding.

The United States, for its part, looks weaker in the eyes of the world. The American military has shown itself unable to quash a much smaller opponent even as it burned through many of its long-range precision missiles and interceptors. The outcome damages this country’s ability to deter other potential adversaries. To begin to repair the damage, the United States would be wise to mend alliances in Europe, the Middle East and Asia that have been frayed by the war’s military and economic effects. The Pentagon will also need to modernize and prepare for the wars of the future. Neither is likely to happen under President Trump.

ADMIN

Apologies, hand, surgery, etc. Almost done with the brace!

HE HOPS THE FENCE AND INTO THE WILDERNESS HE TROTS

… while shouting, in a voice hoarsened by incessant lying, It’s a wonderful city, isn’t it? I designed it myself!

Hours after the Labor Department reported that inflation had crested above 4 percent for the first time since early 2023, [President] Trump told reporters, “I love it, the numbers were great,” adding that oil prices didn’t climb as high as he thought they might when he ordered attacks on Iran in late February.

“I love the inflation,” he said. “You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, … it’s going to come down like a rock.” [Politico]

Well, at least when he predicts negative inflation, it’s technically possible. That’s when prices drop.

This is what happens when a chronic liar, painted into a corner, takes too big a sniff of the paint fumes, and tries to claim the ongoing disaster is a good thing that he will enjoy. Supporters will hold cult meetings expressly to try to interpret the occult Trump signs.

Republicans running for Senate seats must be aghast as the chains around their waists tighten and they’re dragged towards the edge of the cliff by the babbling idiot on the other end, swinging back, swinging forth, oblivious to the sand and pebbles of his tumbled fortress falling into his eyes.

Can they unlock the chains in time? Or will they wait for the Democrats to fall on their swords? The latter is actually not a bad strategy, but if the Democrats are leaning towards more sensible policy positions, as noted in a previous installment, success may be marginal.

BUT HE HAS A CEASE-FIRE!

And that’s not the unconditional surrender he claimed was imminent for how long?

But at this point, we should just fire him and take what we can get. While we’re not yet near riots in the streets, we have some toes on that path, and really need to think about how things are going. Republicans, are you paying attention? Well, this guy isn’t.

THIS IS A BIG HINT

To both Republicans and Democrats:

President Donald Trump’s poor approval rating continues to weigh down his party ahead of the midterms — though the GOP has a slim measure of separation from the president, with Democrats holding a 5-point lead in the battle for control of Congress, according to a new national NBC News poll.

The poll — which was sponsored by More Perfect, a nonpartisan nonprofit dedicated to advancing democracy — found 49% of registered voters say they prefer to see Democrats control Congress as a result of this year’s elections, compared to 44% who prefer Republican control and 7% who are unsure. [NBC News]

Each side has, as its adversary, a Party constituted of whack-jobs and flakes, condemning the other as Evil Incarnate – and not without reason. That neither side is running away is a condemnation from the independents, who are shaking their heads.

It’s time for new Parties.

Meanwhile, if the Republicans led an impeachment of the President, I’ll bet they’d retain control of Congress.

THE WAKE OF DOOM <cough> <cough>

• In Alaska the latecomer Sullivan claims to be in earnest:
  

  Alaska U.S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan acknowledges that sharing a name and party affiliation with the incumbent Republican gives him “an instant megaphone” in the crowded primary race. But Sullivan said his campaign isn’t a sham or something Democrats put him up to doing. …

  “This is my choice,” Sullivan, who lives in the small fishing community of Petersburg, said in a telephone interview Monday. [AP]

  But the Alaska Division of Elections disagrees, and has disallowed the second Sullivan from running. Only one Dan Sullivan at a time, please? Some common-sense solutions are offered up in the article, such as labeling the Senator as the incumbent on the ballot. Maybe one of them will be selected.

  In polling news, Alaska Survey Research finds …

  Mary Peltola [(D)] extends her lead over Dan Sullivan [(R)] to over 5 points in the US Senate general election race!

  But I can’t find the actual poll. Is it wise to trust a BlueSky news release? Especially if they seem partisan?

• In Texas …
  

  Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) holds a 3-point edge over state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the Lone Star State’s Senate race, according to a new poll conducted by the Texas Pulse. [The Hill]

  I do not know Texas Pulse, so is this significant?

  Meanwhile, there’s dissension in the ranks:

  As Texas Republicans meet for their state convention in Houston to project unity after heated primaries, the former top Republican elected official in the state’s biggest red county will take over local radio airwaves with one message: “I won’t vote for Ken Paxton.”

  The one-minute ad featuring former Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley will be blasted on conservative airwaves in Houston on Friday and Saturday during the GOP’s state convention. The pro-James Talarico super PAC, Lone Star Rising, spent around $5,000 for an initial ad run during the convention but will continue to air the spot throughout the campaign season. [Spectrum News]

  While it won’t move hordes of Texas voters, it’ll make some few think. It also makes primary voters look bad, which will cause more dissension as primary voters who voted for Paxton grow resentful of the condemnation.

• In Maine, the 9 June primary election yielded Graham Platner (D) easily winning the Democratic primary, 72% – 19.5%, and rendering my speculations of an upset by Governor Mills (D) bootless. His first challenge? Not Senator Collins (R), but this:
  

  Platner, a Marine Corps veteran and first-time candidate, launched his campaign in August 2025 as a populist challenger to five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins. He withstood early uproar over inflammatory Reddit posts and a Nazi-linked tattoo, and Maine Gov. Janet Mills’s withdrawal from the Democratic primary race all but assured his win.

  But he faces a different electorate in the general election, and recent reports that he sent sexually explicit texts to several women while married and mistreated former romantic partners have cast additional doubt on his electability.

  Platner has responded to many of the revelations by attributing his past actions to poor mental health and post-traumatic stress disorder after his military service, saying voters should focus on Collins’s voting record. He also denied recent allegations from an ex-girlfriend that he was physically intimidating, pointing to her past in GOP politics to question her credibility. [WaPo]

  That was published 10 June, one day after the primary election. As Senator Collins is a moderate Republican, independents are not going to feel as strongly motivated to vote against a Republican incumbent Senator as they might in some States. Makes ya wonder about WaPo, doesn’t it? Maybe working for the Republicans?

  However, Mr Platner is not without options. He could drop out of the race, for one thing, and the Party could then select his rival, Governor Mills, despite her age. She’s older than Collins, and the Party should be asking where the up and comers have gone, but too late now.

  Or Platner could work with an enduring principle of American life: Redemption. If he can make this into a redeemer campaign, it could all play out well for him. I think he’s already trying, so can he make it fly?

  In any case, President Trump has endorsed Senator Collins. Another cross for her to bear.

• In South Carolina, the 9 June primary election yielded incumbent Senator Graham (R), with only 56.8% of the Republican votes, and Annie Andrews, with 61.5% of the Democratic votes. While the Senator’s results may indicate the primary voters are restive, I doubt that puts Graham in the troubled category. It’s still a walk for Graham. 

  Although his frenzied spending remains a puzzle.

• Last time I saw a poll for the Hudson / Moore primary runoff in Alabama, unknown pollster co/efficient gave Rep Moore a nine point advantage, and that poll was released on 6 June. Now a poll released by unknown pollster Strategy Management on 9 June gives Hudson a 5 point lead, 42% – 37%. Yes, predicting elections has become difficult, but biased polling is a thing – and some biases are bought, and I don’t know all of the, ah, vendors with bias for sale.
• Any poll in Idaho is a miracle, so I don’t care if I’ve never heard of Peak Insights … oh, I have. Once. In 2024. Unrated. In Idaho’s Senate race, they give incumbent Senator Risch (R) a 55% – 15% lead over David Roth (D), and that’s not a typo. In the name recognition race, Senator Risch is familiar to 85% of the surveyed, while only 39% had heard of Mr Roth. That’s not a winning strategy for Mr Roth.
• In the Michigan race, Rep Stevens (D) is now sporting a brand new sexy endorsement from Senator and Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D). Polls are not scarce, but just insert the word respectable and they scatter like ducks at the sight of a hunting dog.
• The Georgia primary election is imminent and President Trump is hungry for glory:
  

  President Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Mike Collins (R-Georgia) early Sunday[14 June,] ahead of Tuesday’s runoff in Georgia’s GOP Senate primary, wading into a race that could determine control of the chamber this fall.

  “Mike is strongly supported by the most Highly Respected MAGA Patriots in Georgia and beyond,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, touting his alignment with Collins on a number of policies. “He is a WARRIOR and WINNER!“ [WaPo]

  I cannot help but note if Collins was so fabulous, Trump would have endorsed him weeks ago.

• Last-term Senator McConnell (R) of Kentucky, whose current term ends on the Senate’s Inauguration Day early next year, is in the hospital, reason not given.
• The next set of Senate primaries is 16 June, and consist of Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Colorado is a week later.

REVISION, REVISION …

I’m moving Maine (R) from likely to flip to unlikely to flip but possible.

I hope this holds together:

Trump and Iran reach agreement that includes opening Strait of Hormuz [CNN, sub required]

Trump has been nattering on about cease-fire for months now, so there has to be doubt.

But now the two sides will jockey about and test each other. And, of course, Israel is independent of the United States, and PM Netanyahu has his own set of motivations, which does not seem to include pursuing military glory so much as keeping Israel in a position where it cannot pursue his prosecution on corruption charges.

Israel may mess this up for Trump.

Note that this sounds like a primitive approach to a lasting peace, because there’s no third party providing monitoring guarantees. Of course, who would Iran’s government trust? Regardless, this may be unstable and short-lived, because President Trump has been utterly humiliated.

I project he’ll be hooting about his profound victory, rather than resigning as he should. Amateurs, tasting power, rarely relinquish it, believing it brings them respectability, even as it reveals them to be failures.

This may cause an uproar:

A local court in Germany has made a landmark ruling that could significantly impact the operation of search engines and AI chatbots worldwide. The Munich Regional Court has determined that Google is liable for false statements generated by its AI Overviews feature. This ruling compels Google to take responsibility for preventing the circulation of inaccurate claims through its search engine.

The case originated when two publishers found that Google’s AI-generated summaries linked them to dubious business practices and scams, without any factual basis. These publishers sent a cease-and-desist letter to Google earlier in the year. However, Google refuted the accusations, arguing that its AI tool provides warnings that the information may be erroneous and should be independently verified.

The court’s analysis showed that Google’s AI synthesized information from various sources, combining it in a way that falsely associated the plaintiffs with illicit activities. Unlike traditional search engines that merely list links, Google’s AI tool created “independent, new, and substantial statements” based on misinterpreted data. [IT Magazine]

When a service collides with individual reputational concerns, when it spreads falsehoods, which is more important, this sometimes-wrong service, or the reputation?

The nature of truth and associated questions, such as epistemology, has challenged philosophers for millenia, and scientists wrestling with data collection, along with baffling cause & effect scenarios such as placebos and nocebos, for centuries. Distinguishing a measurement from someone jiggling the probe is sometimes a difficult business, for example.

Google is providing a generative AI service, which means they’ve processed the content of some part of the Web and use that to generate their service contents. It should  go without saying that the Web isn’t trustworthy as a general rule, and even trusty parts are sometimes temporarily corrupted. Does Google’s quest for yet larger profits adequate justification for putting folks’ reputations at risk, for distributing fallacious information for possibly critical services?

Or is this an early incident in the fall of the generative AI services?

Epiphragm:

An epiphragm (from the Ancient Greek ἐπί, epi ” upon, on, over ” and φράγμα, -phrágma “fence”) is a temporary structure which can be created by many species of shelled, air-breathing land snails, terrestrial pulmonate gastropod mollusks. It can also be created by freshwater snails when temporary pools dry up.

In most species, the epiphragm is made of dried mucus, and although it is elastic, it is fairly easily torn when forcibly removing a snail from its substrate. In a few species, the epiphragm is thick and quite rigid, being reinforced with calcium carbonate. This kind of epiphragm is very strong and may be difficult to break. [Wikipedia]

Survival strategies. Noted in this Animalogic video, The 13 Animals With The Most Extreme Sleep Behaviours:

Erick Erickson continues to discover that he backed, well, a clown …

It is Obamaesque to think one can negotiate with a terrorist regime that is premised on bringing about the apocalypse. The Vice President claims the Trump Administration is dealing with both moderates and hardliners. The definition of a moderate in Iran is one who wants to nuke Israel tomorrow, instead of today.

The President of the United States chose to engage Iran. It dealt a serious blow. But instead of dealing a knock out blow, the President ordered Israel to pull its punches. We have now harmed our relationships with our Middle Eastern allies who depend on us for protection. The situation is now more unstable than before the war began and it is all because of a single person who swears he’ll get a deal any day now.

Erickson is, to his credit, being honest, but I think his real shortcoming is the set of false or unproven assumptions from which he operates. For instance, the assumption that his religion automatically maps to good and Islam to bad has a collection of knock-on conclusions that are sometimes not fulfilled by reality.

Similar remarks apply to an Iranian government that is entangled in questions of clinging to positions of social prestige. And that applies back to us.

Yes, this is unsurprising, but to accept it and not explore alternate explanations is a mistake. For example, assuming the Iranian government, a large entity, is evil will lead to expectations which will remain unfulfilled; but if we accept a common-sense proposition that they’re doing their best to care for what they consider important, just as we do, then our expectations will come closer to reality. We can guess they’re operating from assumptions a millenia out of date, we can assume they’re trying to follow the rules issued by a divinity long, long ago.

Just as some of us still do today.

I’m mostly avoiding detail here due to my continuing surgical recovery, but I must say: I violently reject Erickson’s first remark. By all accounts I’ve read, the Iran deal was considered an ongoing success, as nuclear weapons were not under development and, more importantly, the outraged Iranian hardliners were losing credibility. Whether it would have continued to be successful is moot, of course.

But that does bring up President Trump, who destroyed the JCPOA. Since he’s Party leader, Republicans generally are hesitant to criticize him, and while Erickson has offered the occasional criticism, his cited post is a step towards acknowledging President Trump has a mental illness, perhaps pathological narcissism and dementia, along with a fourth-rate understanding of how politics really works. What we see is near-childish grasping of the visible signs of governmental greatness, such as monumental and imposing buildings, military victories, and dominance over others; these are signposts of the illness he may have.

He is fortunate to fail, honestly, as success might cost him more than he can imagine, from conviction as a war criminal to the humiliating deconstruction of monumental mementos, which are desired by no one but him and his coterie.

I’ll leave it at that out of necessity.

Rep Nehls (R-TX) is ambitious for an award and, no doubt, so much more:

Nehls: Donald Trump is the best thing to happen to this country in a hundred years. He was born a very special baby. I bet the doctors said, “I can tell this is a very special baby.”

I suppose he could be joshin’ the reporter, but the Republicans are lunatic enough that I doubt it. I think Nehls is either terrified of being primaried, or jonesing for a promotion into the Administration.

Fedsurrection:

Etymology

Blend of fed (“federal agent”) +‎ insurrection, popularized by American right-wing politicians Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz.

Noun

fedsurrection (plural fedsurrections)

1. (politics, derogatory) the January 6 United States Capitol attack

Usage notes

• This word alludes to a conspiracy theory that a large number of federal agents took part in an insurrection. [Wiktionary]

Noted in “Jan. 6 rioter targeted by ‘fedsurrection’ conspiracy theories gets 8 years in prison,” Ryan J. Reilly, NBC News:

Assistant U.S. Attorney Rebekah Lederer said Alam’s fellow rioters had made him “a scapegoat,” noting that they tried to label him “antifa” or claim he was part of the “fedsurrection,” the conspiracy theory that the Jan. 6 attack was a setup driven by undercover law enforcement entities.

I was a bit alarmed to see Trump advisor try to slip a problem by:

It appears Mr Pulte failed the hurdle as CNN is claiming Jay Clayton (R) is the nominee for Director of National Intelligence (DNI). He doesn’t seem qualified for the post, but I’ll leave it to those with the time and a working right hand to confirm that. I think it’s interesting that Pulte didn’t get the nod, showing that Trump can be influenced by resolute Republicans and Democrats, and wanted FISA more than Pulte.

But will it work? Clayton will be beholden to Trump, because that’s how a chronically guilty man works, but will Clayton be incompetent as well? Will he be worse than Pulte was projected to be?

Before the overnight storm:

From my Arts Editor.

When spa-ing is overdone.

Ya gotta wonder if these are accurate or on the low side:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.6 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 3.9 percent in May, after rising 3.8 percent in April and 10.9 percent in March. The energy index accounted for over sixty percent of the monthly all items increase. The index for shelter also increased in May, rising 0.3 percent. The food index increased 0.2 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.1 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in May. Indexes that increased over the month include communication, airline fares, medical care, personal care, and recreation. Conversely, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles were among the major indexes that decreased in May.

The all items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.9 percent over the year, following a 2.8-percent increase over the 12 months ending April. The energy index increased 23.5 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 3.1 percent over the last year.

4.2% inflation will surely impact everyone who lives from paycheck to paycheck, the house-poor, in short everyone who has freely imbibed of the American teaching to buy everything in sight!

Cauchy horizon:

The Cauchy horizon is the spot where determinism breaks down, where the past no longer determines the future. Physicists, including Penrose, have argued that no observer could ever pass through the Cauchy horizon point because they would be annihilated.

As the argument goes, as an observer approaches the horizon, time slows down, since clocks tick slower in a strong gravitational field. As light, gravitational waves and anything else encountering the black hole fall inevitably toward the Cauchy horizon, an observer also falling inward would eventually see all this energy barreling in at the same time. In effect, all the energy the black hole sees over the lifetime of the universe hits the Cauchy horizon at the same time, blasting into oblivion any observer who gets that far. [“Some black holes erase your past,” Robert Sanders, UC Berkeley News]

I’ve read about black holes all my life, but Cauchy horizon? New to me. Noted in “The hidden pockets of the universe where the future can cause the past,” Leah Crane, NewScientist (30 May 2026, paywall):

You’re falling into a black hole. Somehow, you’ve managed to protect yourself from the spaghettification that’s happening to every object around you as the black hole’s powerful gravity pulls on the near end of each object more than the far end, stretching everything into noodles before shredding it to pieces. Maybe you’ve got some sort of high-tech compression suit holding you together; congratulations on your invention. As you pass the event horizon, the point of no return, all you see is blackness punctuated by streaks of light falling towards the singularity at the heart of the cosmic behemoth. Your impossible suit also protects you from those streaks, which would otherwise be ripping through your molecules at near-light speed.

And then you pass a second, lesser-known horizon, and time and space switch places. This second boundary is called the Cauchy horizon; if they exist within black holes, their insides are the strangest places in the universe.

Here’s NGC1514 – planetary nebula.

NGC1514.

ADMIN

Apologies, hand, surgery, etc.

JUST BELOW THE BLOODIED SURFACE

The Bulwark’s Lauren Egan makes the case that Democratic candidates – moderate Democrats – are making a comeback:

So much of the narrative this election cycle is that Democratic voters just want to cast out the old guard. And while operatives are busy fixating on the attention economy or debating candidates’ morality, it turns out that plain vanilla Democratic politics may actually be working.

“What Iowa, North Carolina, Alaska are telling us is that the recipe is actually pretty simple: You find candidates with long, deep relationships in those states who understand those states, and then you let them run campaigns that are focused on those states rather than trying to nationalize everything,” said Caitlin Legacki, a party strategist who is working with Schumer-backed Rep. Haley Stevens in the Michigan Senate primary.

Always fractious, Democrats have debated how best to campaign while Trump occupies the White House, having argued about it since the earliest days of his first term. But this perennial argument has taken on added significance as the Platner saga rumbles on. Disagreements that were once about campaign strategy have turned into fights over whether key issues or candidate morality even matter at all.

The contrast is remarkable. As Platner’s defenders have invested themselves in making him an avatar of a new type of populist politics, other Democrats running for Senate have been strikingly conventional. Cooper, the 68-year-old former North Carolina governor well-known in his home state, put out a no-thrills bio ad this week that was so colorless it borders on parody.

Radicals of all sorts hate to be pushed away from the sweet, corrupting taste of power, so look for the far left’s cancel culture tactics to continue as moderate Democrats begin pushing issue positions incompatible with Democratic general election victories out of the Party. This includes several issues surrounding transgenderism of the young, such as child surgeries, language imperialism^[1], and dubious, at least to the average voter, sexual teachings^{[see 1 again]}; defunding the police; identity politics; abrogation of the basic tenets of liberal democracy; and other attention-getters that are ultimately viewed negatively by voters.

If they don’t, the Democrats run the risk of becoming an irrelevancy, replaced by a more moderate Party.

Yes, that applies to the Republicans as well. Even moreso.

THE FUMBLING ABOUT CONTINUES

GOP Senate candidates are beginning to move away from the President, as they sense he’s toxic to their job prospects:

While Senate GOP leaders successfully quashed much of that dissent, the days of bitter wrangling exposed cracks in Trump’s base of support on Capitol Hill. There is now a growing chorus of Republicans — and not just the usual defectors — willing to defy him as they seek to rein in his pursuit of his agenda, ranging from projects like the White House ballroom and exacting political retribution on his enemies to his handling of the Iran war and other foreign policy issues. The trend is only expected to accelerate as the November elections approach, with contentious fights ahead like Trump’s push to confirm his controversial expected pick to lead the Department of Justice. [CNN]

So much for dominating the businessmen/jellyfish he arranged to have elected. And …

“The negotiations are at a deadlock and (US President Donald) Trump must break this deadlock,” Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, told CNN in an exclusive interview in Tehran. “The ball is in Trump’s court.”

Iran has reportedly demanded the release of $12 billion in frozen funds as soon as an interim agreement is signed with the US, and another $12 billion at a later stage.

US officials are concerned that any unfreezing of funds at this stage could remove a key leverage point over the regime. Trump has demanded that any agreement appear far stronger than the nuclear deal struck in 2015, and to avoid anything that could be construed as handing over “pallets of cash,” a phrase he has invoked to criticize then-President Barack Obama’s decision to give Tehran financial compensation. [CNN]

I expect the Iranians will dig in their heels until Trump rolls over for them, because that’s what he does. GOP Senate candidates will have to work the tightrope of infuriated independent voters and infuriated MAGA voters if they hope to win, and that’ll be a trick.

CURVE BALLS GALORE

Last week was a slider, I think.

• All eyes are on Maine as their primary approaches, and now that upstart oyster farmer kGraham Platner (D) nearly has the Democratic Senate nomination in his grasp, will it slip away? This is not encouraging for Platner fans:
  

  Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner denied some of the new wave of allegations during an interview Thursday with MS NOW’s Chris Hayes, his first national interview following a New York Times report detailing his past relationships.

  The interview came hours after the Times report detailed accounts from several women who had been romantically involved with Platner. The report, based on interviews with more than two dozen people, including six former romantic partners, described sharply different experiences with the Democrat.

  “There are some allegations in this piece that I just want to be kind of unequivocal about, are simply not true. Anything alleging physicality, anything alleging that I knew what my tattoo was, these are the statements of someone who’s politically motivated,” Platner said to Hayes. [MS NOW]

  Senator Hassan (D-NH) is alarmed:

  Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) on Graham Platner amid latest allegations: “Reports of threatening behavior and antisemitism like the ones made against Graham Platner are serious and deserve scrutiny. It’s also critical to acknowledge how difficult this is for the women who’ve come forward. Character matters now more than ever, and any high-profile campaign including Mr. Platner’s involves the close examination of a candidate’s history, statements and behavior, as well as the candidate’s reaction to the pressure that such examination entails. Ultimately the people of Maine will decide who has the character and judgment to best represent them.”

  Progressives may howl over the press reports – “traitors” might be the word du jour – but warts and all is apropos for reportage here. As noted in an earlier post, Platner’s primary competition, Governor Mills (D), hasn’t actually withdrawn from the ballot, and she could still be chosen as nominee, either by voters or by default. The last poll result I’ve seen for the Democratic primary was from the University of New Hampshire and gave Platner a 76% – 10% lead over Gov Mills, and that’s no typo. That’d be a heckuva comeback for Mills, and should scare the bejeesus out of Senator Collins (R).

  Finally, highly respected UMass-Lowell has Platner up 48%-43% over incumbent Senator Collins, but this poll may have been conducted prior to these allegations.

• The Citadel Poll suggests Senator Graham’s (R) lead in the South Carolina is only ten points, 46% – 36%, over businessman Mark Lynch (R), who does not seem to have any experience in electoral politics. If accurate, that’s a surprise, but The Citadel Poll is unfamiliar to me. A quick glance at Lynch’s website reveals a cookie-cutter far-right platform.
• Any problem with passing that on verbaThe same poll gives inexperienced Annie Andrews (D), MD, a 45% share of the potential Democratic primary votes, followed by Undecided at 36% and Brandon Brown (D) at 14%. Her On The Issues summation right/above seems based on little data, so I’m not inclined to ask the question, Do South Carolinians really want to vote for someone so far left?
• Maybe he just shouldn’t talk to anyone in Texas. The headline says it all:
  

  Ken Paxton’s Impeachment Defense Lawyer Endorses James Talarico

• Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has scored an endorsement from the UAW in the race for the open Michigan Senate seat.
• Ya know, I would have guessed any Senate campaign spending records would have been set in Texas. What do I know?
  

  South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has morphed from one of President Donald Trump’s fiercest Republican critics into one of his closest allies, is spending money like he’s in political trouble.

  Graham has spent an astounding $27 million on his reelection campaign, according to Federal Election Commission filings, and that’s even before his primary next week. His five GOP opponents — none of whom has a high statewide profile ― combined have spent less than a fifth of that. [HuffPost]

  Senator Graham seems safe enough in South Carolina, at least to me. Him in trouble would indicate either MAGA out of control, or moderate Republicans having had enough of him.

• I have no idea who Colorado Community Research might be, although this Wikipedia page references them as aligned with the Democratic Party, so get out your salt shakers:
  

  [Former Gov and current Democratic Senator] Hickenlooper leading Gonzales 38–30 among likely voters

  Colorado Community Research polling reveals a highly fluid race with a surprisingly uncommitted electorate ahead of the June 30 primary.

  A new statewide survey of likely Democratic primary voters reveals a surprising dynamic: despite John Hickenlooper’s status as a known political quantity, a massive swath of the Colorado electorate remains undecided.

  

  On The Issues: Mark Baisley (R-CO).

  That does seem a bit surprising. As it happens, Senator Hickenlooper and Gonzales, a Colorado State Senator, are the only two surviving entrants in the Democratic primary. The Republican primary is down to one, a Colorado State Senator named Mark Baisley. The primary is 30 June.

• Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is emphasizing corruption in the Republican Party in his campaign, such as this lovely campaign ad. It’s worth remembering that most candidates are lawyers, who can sometimes seem disconnected from the electorate. Senator Ossoff comes from a journalism background in which he helped create documentaries, among other projects, which means he remains connected to the electorate, and can communicate effectively with voters. Having seen that campaign ad, I won’t be surprised if he wins in a rout, given the apparent corruption of President Trump and likely opponent Rep Collins (R).
• Today’s Senate primary elections are in Maine and South Carolina, both Republican seats.

¹Andrew Sullivan doesn’t use the phrase, but cites Gov Hochul (D-NY): ”“gestating parent” and “non-gestating parent.””, to which I can only say, really, Guv’nr? Sorry, Andrew’s site is behind a paywall.

The President is often – always, perhaps – influenced by visuals, and Director of Federal Housing Finance Agency Bill Pulte, now appointed acting national intelligence director while having no applicable experience, certainly has a certain intensity which may impress those who think, well, central casting matters in government hiring. But let’s have Rep Himes (D-CT) have a say:

That’s – that’s not the way this works, right? The president needs to sober up and realize that this appointment is arguably, in the – in the – you know, you know, basket of awful appointments he has made, this is probably the worst and most dangerous.

Ouch, but it’s worrisome when a man who campaigned for the President’s attention through accusations of mortgage fraud against political adversaries of the President. We want competent, knowledgeable administrators in positions like DNI, not power-hungry hitmen who specialize in … their looks.

The Democats are refusing to back renewal of the controversial FISA program while Pulte is acting DNI. This will cause a stir and a half.