The Words Of Wise Guys
Long-time readers know I don’t much care for Senator Tuberville (R-AL). His seat in the Senate has been little more than a trophy, although he did abuse it to interfere with military promotions during the Biden Administration when the military promised to transport service members who need abortions to locations that would provide them.
But, as he prepares to leave the Senate for a gubernatorial run, he couldn’t keep toeing the Republican line.
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said Wednesday the Republican Party was fractured and has not accomplished “anything” despite their majority in both the House and Senate.
“Everything that goes on up here … is about, ‘Oh, we got to get reelected. We got to keep the majority.’ Well, hell, we ain’t done anything in the majority. Why would she, why would, should we keep majority?” Tuberville said during a Wednesday appearance on Benny Johnson’s podcast. [The Hill]
In a Republican controlled Congress of which House Speaker Johnson (R-LA) claimed high productivity, the Senator has provided an unexpected breath of fresh air: a House not really under Johnson’s control, between the grasping Trump and the various House members who refuse to cooperate, or have resigned, makes it hard to be productive. Given the shift in the character of the Republicans in just the last few years, it’s not surprising that they find it hard to agree, to compromise; when the shift involves power-hungry politicos that really don’t seem to grasp that they’ve signed up for big responsibilities, and not big prizes, their failure should not surprise.
Can the GOP caucus in the legislature pull it together in the end?
However, Trump has said he’ll focus on campaigning for GOP Senate lawmakers facing reelection bids to secure the party’s majority amid midterm elections.
I’ll say it again: Trump is a burden on conservatives, because he’s not a conservative. He’s a grifter with acting skills. But folks are figuring that out.
Including the GOP, as this Politico article delivers.
There’s a growing anxiety gnawing at battleground Republicans: Maybe their Senate majority isn’t as safe as they once thought.
Democrats still face steep odds in their bid to flip the chamber, but interviews with nearly two dozen GOP operatives, party chairs and strategists across the country’s battlegrounds found a persistent concern that the longer the Iran war drags on and the economy sputters, the more it could complicate their path to keeping their majority in November.
This May Not End Well
This sounds like it may end in corruption charges for someone – or some well-heeled donors will come looking for someone’s head.
… the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which paid Better Mousetrap Digital more than $117,000 in “digital fundraising fees” from November through February. The NRSC did not respond to questions about why it continues doing business with Daly and if it plans to continue paying Better Mousetrap Digital for services. [NOTUS]
Better Mousetrap Digital is run by Jack Daly, who reportedly plead guilty to fraud charges, as explained at the above link. Is the Republican Senatorial Committee sinking into chaos, confusion, and corruption? And what will that mean for funding Senate candidates if emergencies arise, as may happen with an angry electorate? How will conservative voters react if this becomes a big story in conservative circles?
Back to the minutiae of life.
- In the last update, Data For Progress listed the top three Michigan Democratic primary candidates as essentially tied. The more than respectable Emerson College Polling disagrees:
A new Emerson College Polling/WOOD-TV survey of Michigan likely primary voters finds 24% support Abdul El-Sayed and Mallory McMorrow in the August Democratic U.S. Senate Primary, while 13% support Haley Stevens. Thirty-six percent are undecided. Support for El-Sayed increased eight points since the January Emerson College poll, while support for McMorrow increased two points and support for Stevens decreased four points.
An eight point jump for El-Sayed is attention-getting, of course; he lists his religion as Islam, so the Islamophobe wing of the Republicans seem likely to pick up on that and attempt to bring it to the attention of Michigan independents. Or they may wait until after the primary, which is on 4 August.
For those voters who consider experience important, El-Sayed does not seem to have served in elective office, while McMorrow is a member of the Michigan Senate, and Rep Stevens is a member of the US House of Representatives.
In the same Emerson College poll, former Rep Mike Rogers (R) leads the Michigan Republican primary field by 53 points. I don’t see any of his fellow Republicans catching him unless self-inflicted wounds appear on Rogers’ hide. Whether his big primary lead will translate into enough votes in the general election is another matter.
- In Texas, the Democrats are not about to be shut out in the money game:
State Rep. James Talarico raised $27 million in the first three months of 2026 in his bid to flip Texas, according to his campaign.
The Austin Democrat’s haul is the largest-ever sum for a Senate candidate — in any state — in the first quarter of an election year. He outraised other Democrats this cycle who posted impressive hauls of their own in competitive Senate races where Democrats have better odds, including Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, and more than doubled the totals of former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and former Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola.
Talarico significantly outpaced Texas’ last two Democratic Senate candidates to win their primaries outright — both strong fundraisers. Colin Allred raised over $9.5 million in the first quarter of 2024, and Beto O’Rourke brought in $6.7 million in 2018 — though both ultimately lost. [The Texas Tribune]
Notably, Talarico won the Democratic primary outright, beating Rep Crockett (D), while the Republican primary has resulted in a runoff. But, as I’ve said before, money does not buy votes. It gets a candidate’s voice out there, but mature voters will analyze positions and try to assess honesty, and not be influenced by sheer volume or entertainment value. Or so I’d like to believe.
And, of course, money flows across borders relatively easily. So does this mean all that much?
Talarico also continued his streak of outraising his potential Republican opponents, tripling Sen. John Cornyn’s haul and beating Attorney General Ken Paxton by twelvefold. Cornyn, who is locked in a bitter runoff battle with Paxton, raised nearly $9 million in the first quarter across his fundraising apparatus, including $3.4 million in the weeks after the primary, his campaign announced. Paxton raised $2.2 million.
It’s tempting to say No, and tempting to say Yes. Neither applies without context, so here’s a heaping spoonful of context:
The $27 million quarter brings Talarico’s total fundraising for the race, since he got in last September, to over $40 million. Talarico’s campaign said that over the course of the race, he has received donations from over 540,000 individual contributors, and from 246 of Texas’ 254 counties, according to his campaign.
That’s somewhere in the $74 per contributor range, suggesting the contributors are not rich people trying to influence the race, but middle class folks contributing to someone they approve of.
- The venerable University of New Hampshire polled the New Hampshire Senate seat potential contests of Rep Pappas (D-NH) vs former Senator Sununu (R-NH) and vs former Senator Brown (R-MA during his single term in the Senate, now R-NH), finding Pappas leads Brown by 14 points, 52-38, and Sununu by 7 points, 49-42. Pappas has a large primary lead, while Sununu leads Brown by 37 points. At this snapshot of voter sentiment, it’ll be Pappas vs Sununu.The primary is on September 8, a long ways off.
- University of New Hampshire polled the Rhode Island Senate seat contests, potential and otherwise. Incumbent Senator Reed (D) leads primary challenger Burbridge (D), 65-15; Republican primary polling results were not mentioned. In the potential contest of Reed vs Raymond McKay (R), Reed holds a 52-34 lead.
The primary is on September 9. Careful readers will note the variance with New Hampshire, above. My reference is Ballotpedia.
- University of New Hampshire polled the Massachusetts Senate seat contests, potential and otherwise. Senator Markey (D) holds comfortable leads over challenger Rep Moulton (D) and Republican likely nominee John Deaton.
The primary is September 1.
- Alaska Survey Research has Alaska’s former Rep Peltola (D) leading incumbent Senator Sullivan (R) 49-43. That must be an unwelcome surprise in this red state.
And back to the spring gardening.
