“I’m Splitting !!!!”
According to this report in MS NOW, the annual CPAC get-together of highly conservative activists displayed splits along the fissure known as Trump’s War. Younger activists were more likely to consider the war a betrayal rather than, to use the language in the report, a reflection of of American Triumphalism’s accomplishments.
This emphasizes the conundrum GOP candidates for office, from incumbents to challengers, must solve in order to win: Are they a young MAGA or an old MAGA, and how congruent will that be for the relevant voter base? Do they dare challenge Trump’s War? Will that split their voter base? Could even Republican incumbents lose if they guess wrong?
In The Mundane Underpinnings Of The World
Here’s the old underpinnings and here’s the new:
- James Byrd (D), a former member of the Wyoming House of Representatives for ten years, with some time spent in leadership positions, has entered the Democratic primary for Senator Lummis’ (R-WY) to-be-open Senate seat in Wyoming. The primary election is August 18th. For the record, Senator Barasso (R-WY) won his Senate seat with 75% of the vote in 2024, so Mr Byrd, regardless of his very real political credentials, has a big cliff to climb against presumed GOP candidate Rep Hageman (R-WY).
Kudos to Byrd for at least trying.
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On The Issues: Kevin Hern (R-OK).
Senator Mullin (R-OK) of Oklahoma is no longer a member of the Senate, but Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. He’s also dropped out of the primary race, leaving the field open for Rep Kevin Hern (R-OK). Hern is another far-right conservative, as can be seen in the summation to your right, and might think the Oklahoma Senate seat is in his grasp. He may be right, but between his far right positions, the country’s negative reaction to same, and his lack of incumbency, this may turn out to be a struggle.
Indeed, voters may wonder why Governor Stitt (R-OK) didn’t appoint Rep Hern to the job. Instead, Governor Stitt appointed avowed short-timer Alan Armstrong (R-OK), who is an energy company executive with no legislative experience.
Now, I don’t think Democrats have much of a chance to flip the Oklahoma seat, but the Governor’s move was not calculated to maximize the Republican opportunity to retain that bit of furniture; it smacked more of repaying a favor. On the other hand, House Speaker Johnson, faced with the edge of a cliff, may have requested Rep Hern not be appointed due to Johnson’s own precarious position as a Speaker with virtually no majority.
- Senator Tillis’ (R) to-be-open Senate seat in North Carolina may come under the control of the Democrats next January, as
twothree polls give former Governor Cooper (D) a sizable lead over former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. The first is unknown-to-me Harper Polling, which was founded for Republicans, so when they give Cooper a substantial lead, I take it seriously. The raw poll doesn’t appear to be available, but the 270 to win website points at this article:
With primary season officially over in North Carolina, all eyes are set on North Carolina’s US Senate race. According to the latest Carolina Journal Poll, a survey of 600 likely North Carolina voters, Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper (48.9%) leads Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley (41.1%) by 7.8 points. Among registered independents, Whatley falls further behind with 32% support versus Cooper’s 52% support. [The Carolina Journal]
The balance of the cited article is devoted to describing why North Carolina Republicans are in deep trouble. The most important part might be that last sentence, though: Among registered independents, Whatley falls further behind with 32% support versus Cooper’s 52% support. Independents hold the balance of power in most States, so when a candidate, or a candidate’s Party, becomes disapproved by the independents, they are in trouble.
The second poll is listed as Healthier United North Carolina Statewide Survey[,] Presented by Morgan Jackson, Nexus Strategies and Paul Shumaker, Strategic Partners Solutions. They may be Democrat-leaning, I’m not sure, but they claim Cooper’s lead is 50%-32%, which seems absurdly large in Republican-controlled North Carolina, but not impossible.
The third poll, just in, is from similarly unknown Catawba College Polling, but working with respected YouGov, and gives Cooper a 14 point lead:
The survey also finds that Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley in the early horserace numbers for the U.S. Senate election, 48 percent to 34 percent among likely voters (including those who initially said they were undecided but lean toward a candidate), with 14 percent undecided.
Could this be the early signs of an immense rejection of Republican culture and positions? North Carolina does not have a reputation as a nest of nasty liberals, but rather conservatives who pride themselves on good sense. The report also indicates a rejection of Trump and his policies is spreading throughout North Carolina. I still don’t see a move into the Democratic column, but if a credible third party achieved a popular centrist profile, I could see North Carolina moving in that direction.
- Alaska Survey Research gives former Rep Peltola (D) a five point lead over incumbent Senator Sullivan (R) in Alaska, 49%-44%, in the general election, and the same margin, 46%-41%, in the jungle primary. Top four finishers in the primary move on to the general election, and the general election uses ranked-choice voting to select the winner.
- Although this Quinnipiac University poll is not directly applicable to Senate contests, it’s a possible indicator of where things are going:
If the election were held today, 51 percent of voters would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives, while 40 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control of the House.
Among independents, 57 percent would want to see the Democratic Party win control, while 26 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control, with 17 percent not offering an opinion.
It’s true the House generates more noise and reason worthy of despising than the Senate, but it’s still going to be a matter of concern to the Senate GOP caucus. Acting as if impotent will win no friends, and that’s been happening in the Senate.
- I’m not sure about the credibility of The Alabama Poll, not having heard of it in prior elections, but I thought this report on the GOP primary is interesting. To remind the reader, I initially said,
Steve Marshall is running for this seat, and he’s also held various positions in government related to the legal field. His strongest primary competition may be Rep Barry Moore, who sports an endorsement from President Trump. There are other Republican candidates, but they don’t seem to have relevant experience or potential to challenge Marshall or Moore.
Is Rep Moore, Trump-endorsee, running away with the nomination, as he should if we are to believe Trump endorsements are gold?
No. Here’s The Alabama Poll intro:
Key Finding: Three candidates are statistically tied in Alabama’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate — Barry Moore at 22.8%, Steve Marshall at 20.7%, and Jared Hudson at 19.0% — each within the poll’s ±4.0% margin of error, with 34.5% of voters still firmly undecided. The conventional wisdom holds that President Trump’s endorsement and over $6 million in committed outside spending have effectively decided this race. The crosstabs disagree. I [Michael Lowry] follow the data. Right now, the data says the conventional wisdom is wrong.
On The Issues: Rep Barry Moore. (R-AL).
Bold not mine. I missed Mr Hudson‘s popularity to the GOP ranks; follow his link to see what little Ballotpedia has on him. But the real story here is the low polling numbers of the three leading candidates; Undecided is really leading the pack. As I’ve noted elsewhere, the Trump brand on your backside is no longer perceived as a guarantee of quality by those who might vote in a GOP primary; what will happen in a general election?
At present, despite Moore’s weak result, I anticipate we’ll have a Senator Moore (R-AL) come January, no matter how extremist he may be; see the summation on the right. But it’s not impossible that one of the other two Republican candidates will beat him in the primary.
The Democrats, however, have put up nobody with elective experience, and I do not recognize the names. It’s hard to imagine a Democrat winning this seat. The primary election is May 19.
And that’s it for this week. It seems to be quite a beginning surge for Democrats, but we’ll see how it goes.
