An Outsize Impact
President Trump (R) continues to have an outsize impact, at least in my perception, on the Senate races. From tariffs, which Trump continues to try to impose, to the Epstein Files, those Republican Senators who perceive their district’s citizenry as being influenced by Trump, or having anti-Trump sentiments, find they have to make decisions which may alienate large segments of the voters. If they try to dance on the line between them, they may lose both segments.
In this respect, those Senators demonstrate their failure to have a set of important moral principles. I expect Senators who disapprove of Trump to make that clear, and why. Consequences may fall on their heads, but leading through governance is their job. Their job is not necessarily retaining their job.
From the Racetrack
Continuing the call from the booth….
- In Illinois, the March 17 primary yields a Senate seat contest between Lt Governor Juliana Stratton (D) and lawyer Don Tracy (R), plus three independents who have yet to impress me. Neither Stratton nor Tracy took more than 40% of the vote, but Tracy faces the bigger challenge as the Democratic primary drew more than 1.1 million ballots, while the Republican primary drew 0.35 million ballots.
For the cryptocurrency industry this is a loss, as it backed Rep Raja Krishnamoorthi in the Democratic primary, but it’s hardly an existential loss. The cryptocurrency industry is brimming with new-money millionaires and billionaires who’ll fight to retain the source of their riches. Look for more contests in which the industry backs a candidate until they either begin winning, or a scandal occurs that substantially diminishes the industry’s already waning popularity.
- Maine‘s Graham Platner (D) has been endorsed over Governor Mills (D) by Senator Warren (D-MA). In case I’ve not mentioned it before, Platner is a veteran and an oyster farmer, with some controversy in his past, but no elective office experience. Meanwhile, Governor Mills is older than the likely GOP nominee and incumbent, Senator Collins (R), currently 73.
Polls in Maine: Emerson College suggests Maine’s Senator Collins (R) is floundering a bit, with Governor Mills (D) holding a three point lead over the Senator at 46%-43%, and Graham Platner holding a larger 48%-41% lead. This Emerson College poll suggests Platner holds a large lead, 55%-28%, over Governor Mills in the primary race.
Senator Collins is moderate enough that I puzzle over her not going independent and escaping the hot mess that is the GOP, as can be seen to the right on this On The Issues summation. If the gap widens after the primaries, she may start noising such a change about, although I’m not familiar with Maine’s political atmosphere and that might be suicide rather than an acceptable maneuver.
More important, though, is the fact that a moderate Republican Senator of her years and standing is in trouble. Does this indicate trouble brewing for “safe”, more conservative Senators who’ve made the mistake of placating the President, thus infuriating constituents? Especially in the face of idealistic youth?
- I thought Nebraska would be a placid victory for incumbent Senator Ricketts (R), but apparently the Nebraska GOP doesn’t think so. In the uninteresting part of the news, since my last notice of Nebraska, the Senator has lost primary challenger Edward Dunn (R), but gained four others, none of whom appear noteworthy. Why do they bother?
But on the Democratic side, two entrants have appeared, Cindy Burbank (D) and William Forbes (D). Again, on their own they are not interesting – no relevant experience. So why is the Nebraska GOP suing them? And losing?
Democrat Cindy Burbank will be back on the ballot for the state’s U.S. Senate race after the state Supreme Court ruled Monday that the state’s top election official [Secretary of State Bob Evnen] overstepped and missed a deadline to consider complaints.
“We hold that regardless of who is objecting to a candidate filing form, the plain language of § 32-624 requires that unless the written objection is made within 7 days after the filing deadline, the candidate filing form shall be deemed valid,” the high court wrote.
Burbank is the second Democratic candidate that Nebraska Republicans had tried to get off the ballot this cycle — Burbank and Douglas County sheriff candidate Mark Martinez. Both have now sued successfully to reach the ballot. Both were placed back on by the Nebraska Supreme Court or a judge acting on the court’s behalf. [Nebraska Examiner]
The really interesting part is the allegations:
Attorneys for Evnen and the Nebraska Republican Party had argued that Burbank’s campaign website and comments from Nebraska Democratic Party chair Jane Kleeb indicated Burbank did not plan to serve in Congress but planned to compete for the nomination and eventually support registered nonpartisan Dan Osborn. But Burbank’s legal team argued the decision to remove her from the ballot violated her First Amendment rights and the U.S. Constitution’s qualifications clause.
Burbank’s attorneys argued voters should be able to decide the nominee and that the same scrutiny should be applied to the other Democrat in the Senate race, William Forbes, whom some have alleged is trying to help U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb. The Nebraska GOP’s attorney rejected that characterization of Forbes, saying there is no “proof.” Forbes has sidestepped a question about whether he wanted to address allegations of being “loyal” to Ricketts. …
Burbank has said on her campaign website that she would drop out if she won the nomination and support Osborn because she wants to give him a “fair shot against Ricketts.”
Machinate, machinate, sounds like a spell. Why does the Nebraska GOP care about any of this? Is Senator Ricketts, the appointed successor to Senator Sasse (R), in trouble according to GOP internal polls?
Nebraska’s primary election will be held on May 12, which will be dull on the Republican side and, quite possibly, fascinating on the Democratic side.
- Regarding the open Iowa Senate seat,
Today, VoteVets is announcing that it is beginning an ad campaign in Iowa to help elect Joshua Turek to the U.S. Senate. The fully integrated paid media campaign, which will begin this week with an $825,000 ad buy, will run statewide on broadcast, cable, and satellite television as well as on digital platforms including streaming platforms, YouTube, digital audio, and on social media. It will help introduce Josh Turek as a fighter for working families to voters across Iowa. [VoteVets]
Rep Turek currently has three competitors in the Democratic primary. The Iowa primary election is June 2nd.
- Emerson College is giving New Hampshire Rep Pappas (D) a slim one point lead over former Senator John Sununu (R-NH), 45%-44%, presuming each wins their primary for what will be the empty New Hampshire Senate seat. New Hampshire has two Representatives, so using Pappas’ electoral results in his House district may not be terribly relevant, but it appears he averages roughly eight point victories, so he’s not anomalously unpopular over his career.
And that’s it for this week’s soap opera accounting.
