If This Is Regime Change, I Don’t Want It

Sometimes you stir the pot and, rather than sinking the paper boat in the cup, a dragon sticks its head out, spouting fire:

Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, said that if Iran manages to take control of the Strait of Hormuz permanently, it would be a “colossal win” for the country.

“It’s a massive strategic win, given that Iran has demonstrated that it can close the strait,” Brew told MS NOW. “It’s a huge financial win.”

Brew added that if Iran gains long-term control of the strait, it would be more powerful than it was before the Trump administration attacked it. Iran’s parliament passed a law to begin charging “tolls” of up to $2 million per ship, which could mean as much as $100 billion in annual revenue — or the equivalent of Iran’s current annual oil export earnings.

“It’s not innocuous,” Brew said, referring to the protocol announced on Thursday. “Iran has passed legislation and is now claiming to be coordinating with Oman in establishing joint management of the Strait of Hormuz.” [MS NOW]

Classic stupid amateurism, and, considered from what we knew before Trump’s War began, we knew some sort of unexpected consequence would emerge.

To be honest, regime change, despite the President’s frenzied claims, has not occurred. If it had, then the change from one American Administration to another could be called regime change. The same theocratic/fascist structure is in place in Iran, but some of the faces have changed and its more savage than before. No regime change.

But Iran is not Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. His successor was one of idiot sons, all of whom are now dead, and the organizing principle of Iraq was I want power, and that’s really about it. Iran’s leaders put together a governmental structure and succession planning that had been well thought out – no argument possible, methinks, because we’re seeing it work in real time.

You have to wonder if Trump and his minions looked at Iraq and came to the consensus that a war with Iran would be just like Iraq, only they’d be smarter and not stick around for the post-war draining of the swamp.

And now analysts think the Iranian leadership is learning, gaining, and are worthy of being judged colossal winners. I understand that Idiot Trump is threatening them with horrific disaster if they don’t stop controlling the Straits of Hormuz. My guess is that nothing truly horrific will come of it.

He tried to bully folks who bullied back and have an advantage over Trump: their existential nightmare is worse than his. He just loses reputation and then dies of old age. The Iranian leadership faces massacre by their own citizens, with their families at risk for being their families. They’re cornered rats, essentially.

Trump is foundering on the rocks of Iran, or so will many pundits claimed. But his incompetence to the job has been obvious from the get-go.

He’s been foundering on the rocks of amateurism.

A Lump In Republican Throats

I see Gallup has published its latest poll of the electorate’s Party identification and leanings. It comes out to, in the former case, 30% – 25%, and in the latter case, if push comes to shove, a 49% – 39% lead.

For the Democrats.

Much of the current crop of Republicans are from the MAGA movement, and even among those who are not from MAGA, there runs a strong anti-professional current, a preference for amateurs, as former Speaker Ryan (R-WI) and current Senator Rand (R-KY) will attest.

What is not often mentioned, and should be, is this: Amateurs are often incompetents.

When we use the word amateur, we mean an enthusiast for whatever vocation or avocation, that we recognize is not up to professional standard, but still earns respect for trying something difficult.

But in politics, amateurs in the top ranks of government are not folks to be admired for trying. They are people who, knowingly or not, are endangering the country. For all that Americans see themselves as rough and tough and all that, the truth of the matter is that government provides a stable ground for us to build futures and families on.

And when it’s put in the hands of arrogant amateurs such as Trump and his minions, often people who’ve been sucking down conspiratorial theories since birth, we get the consequent of amateurism: incompetent governance. Similarly, when the Democrats were in control, they pursued some foolish agendas, or pursued agendas improperly, that probably were birthed by amateurs on the left, and when the elections of 2021-2024 rolled over them, I noted the frenzied CYA (cover your ass) excuses (such as “voters are just bigots!“).

Voters are taking it in the teeth, and the Republicans are beginning to risk total dissolution because of their distrust of professionals. The sad part is, of course, that professionals do, from time to time, indulge in unethical behavior.

But the flip side, trusting in amateurs, is proving much, much worse. Both foolish and credulous in the arena of politics and governance, a demented failed businessman has leveraged his acting skills to manipulate them to give him power. Once he has it, his promises go by the wayside and now we face the difficult task of prying him out of power while keeping the nation going.

It’s a mess.

How Many Cakes Can You Eat?

While I’ve not mentioned it much, more or less because it hasn’t come up, I, along with bunches of skeptics, have worried about the conservative assault on what’s known as the Johnson Amendment:

The Johnson Amendment is a provision in the U.S. tax code, since 1954, that prohibits all 501(c)(3) non-profit organizations from endorsing or opposing political candidates. [Wikipedia]

Some religious organizations have considered this an infringement on their free speech rights and have led efforts to repeal it; others have invented ways around it, such as publishing “voter guides”.

But behind all these efforts is An endorsement of a political party based on nothing more than a cleric’s interpretation of Divine will. For new readers, I’ll note that, without any objective evidence of a Divine being, it’s hard to see how clerics can do such a thing. Indeed, given how much contradiction one can find in interpretations of theology, and violence consequent to it, it’s difficult to see such efforts as anything more than the age old pursuit of prestige and power.

One of the unspoken foundations of the United States is rationality. By removing endorsements based on such unverifiable claims as theology, prophecy, and allied claptrap, the United States can instead concentrate on rational analysis. History has proven that a proclamation of Divine favor by a cleric, unverified and unverifiable, and often deeply improbable, can lead to everything up to, and including, existential violence between rival sects.

Truth be told, our perceptions of reality are shaky enough that “rational” analysis will still lead to bone-headed arguments, with more than one side claiming to be science based, others based on stubborn misperception, unearned arrogance, and all that frustrating … glop. But the lack of divine omnipotence motivating sect members into rejecting rationality, compromise, and most other intellectual tools that don’t lead to dominance, immediate and total, will at least give us a chance to craft hard solutions to the difficult question of governance.

Oh, you wonder what set me off? Good news, actually:

A federal judge in Tyler dismissed a lawsuit on Tuesday that sought to allow churches to endorse political candidates without losing their tax-exempt status, dealing a blow to the Trump administration and other conservatives who have worked to eliminate the decades-old law barring nonprofits from supporting political office seekers. [AP]

It’s not the end of the line for invalidating the Johnson Amendment, but at least it’ll keep the peace. Theoretically.

A Chunk Just Fell Off The Plane, Ctd

In the ongoing tale of a mountain falling into a molehill comes news of the firing of Attorney General Bondi:

President Donald Trump has ousted Pam Bondi as attorney general.

The president announced Bondi’s exit in a post Thursday on Truth Social, saying she would “be transitioning to a much needed and important new job in the private sector, to be announced at a date in the near future.”  [Politico]

It seems she was deemed unworthy of a sinecure, which have been opened up for former Kansas Gov Sam Brownback (R-KS), former DHS Secretary Noem, and others. Did the former AG not sacrifice enough of her character for the President’s amusement? Or was it her failures to put certain people in jail that sent her to the Outer Hebrides of the President’s appreciative nature?

Bondi obeyed [Trump], engineering leadership changes that resulted in the rapid-fire indictments of former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James. Yet both cases were quickly thrown out after a judge ruled Bondi’s handpicked prosecutor was illegally appointed.

If you’re gonna fail, at least jump out of your biplane with your parachute and hair on fire. Failing due to procedural errors looks like a fat case of incompetence, meaning lost opportunities and your enemies laughing at you.

The future?

Signals of Trump’s frustration and Bondi’s pending demise surfaced this week after reports that Trump met with EPA boss Lee Zeldin and discussed tapping him for the AG role.

The White House and the Justice Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump’s former criminal defense lawyer, will lead the department in an acting capacity, the president said. Blanche has been unusually visible in his role as Bondi’s deputy, embodying a Trumpian pugilism that has endeared him to the president — and raising eyebrows when he suggested the administration was at “war” with the courts.

Which is to say, finding someone with competency, credibility, and credentials is going to be a tough row to hoe. I’m expecting it’ll be someone short on prestige and long on, well, longing. Longing for respect, longing for vengeance on their enemies. And maybe for wealth.

Who’ll be the next to be ejected from the burning plane known as the Trump Administration? It’s hard to say, given the range of folks who should be embarrassed by their behavior, but I think I shall select Treasury Secretary Bessent.

Belated Movie Reviews

“Too easy,” Mikey said. “Just pour milk over it, Mr. Alien.”

Explorer From Another World (2024) might be a vanity project, or it might be a family project, given the number of actors sharing the same surname. It is certainly an affectionate spoof of the B-list science fiction movies of the 1950s. What we have here is an alien invasion story, featuring a  heavily armed, sadistic alien that makes one simple error and loses their gamble.

We’re not talking profound drama here, folks. Scenery chewing, a trifling of bad dialog poorly delivered, parody of the special effects of decades ago, they all come together to deliver a slightly squirmy forty to fifty minutes of a small town reacting to the alien who has little interest in preserving the natives’ old ways.

And that’s not the worst thing in the world.

The Dots Make A Picture

Keep on gabbling there, Mr Trump on the stage, about Trump’s War ending soon.

Don’t mention this:

Donald Trump’s approval rating on the economy has hit some horrendous—and historic—new lows.

Speaking on CNN’s The Odds Wednesday, chief data analyst Harry Enten reported damning numbers for the Trump administration’s handling of the economy. …

considering the fact that the president has repeatedly claimed to have “defeated” inflation entirely. Meanwhile, the economy in Trump’s first year back in office saw rising inflation, very little GDP growth, and practically no job growth. [The New Republic]

A dot I that should be connected is that the economy pancake is due to Trump’s War. It’s making the cost of transport skyrocket, and cheap transport is an important part of the world economy. The easily predictable cutting of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has caused that jump & bumble of the economy.

And the next dot? Why was Trump’s War initiated? Some of it was cheap glory; an erasure of President Obama’s arguably most important foreign relations accomplishment; but most importantly, it was, along with other nuttiness such as the planned Presidential Library, a distraction.

A distraction from the Epstein Files.

In an era of disrespect for truth and unprecedented literal power in the hands of the arrogant, the innocent are slaughtered, along with the guilty, in the frantic belief that those responsible are somehow entitled.

Keep that in mind.

The 2026 Senate Campaign: Updates

The Anchor In Their Underwear

I have mentioned this before, but President Trump continues to slide towards the bubbling lava pit of incompetency and American contempt. James Downie of MS NOW provides a helpful summation:

There’s no other way to put it: The most recent Associated Press-NORC poll was a disaster for President Donald Trump. Sixty-seven percent of Americans disapproved of his presidency, up seven percentage points in one month. His approval was down five percentage points over the same period to 33%. On immigration, his strongest issue, his approval was 40%; on the war with Iran, 32%; on the economy, 30%; and on cost of living, 23%.

That was just a single survey, but several brutal new polls have been released in the past week. YouGov put Trump’s approval/disapproval at 37%/59%, CNBC put it at 40%/58% and Reuters-Ipsos put it at 36%/62%. The president has been below 40% in most polling averages, such as The New York Times’ and G. Elliott Morris’ FiftyPlusOne. Instead of a “vibe shift” that permanently reshaped the parties’ coalitions, the voting groups who moved right in 2024 have fled the president in droves.

And, a little later,

Six months ahead of the November midterm elections, the Republican Party faces a deteriorating political climate, with Americans broadly dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s leadership on the Iran war and other key issues and an electorate in which Democrats are significantly more motivated to vote, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.

Trump’s approval on economic issues, which were critical to his political comeback in 2024, has fallen since he launched the Iran war in late February.

Americans disapprove of his handling of the situation with Iran by 66 percent to 33 percent. His rating on the economy has declined by seven points, to 34 percent, as gas prices have spiked. His approval rating on inflation has fallen five points in that time to 27 percent and his lowest rating comes on perceptions of his handling of the general cost of living, with 23 percent approving vs. 76 percent disapproving.

Trump’s overall approval now stands at 37 percent, largely the same as the 39 percent figure in February. But his disapproval has reached 62 percent, the highest of his two terms in office. Among Republicans, Trump’s approval has held steady at 85 percent, but his ratings among Republican-leaning independents have reached a new low of 56 percent. His approval rating stands at 25 percent among independents overall. [WaPo]

The implicit question for GOP Senate candidates remains the same as last time: whether they support a President whose very governmental position is ripping holes in their Party, or do they defy him and infuriate, possibly, the President’s MAGA base? Not a cud I’d care to swallow, but if I had to I’d go with the rejection of the President, and I’d insert casual mentions of the Epstein Files into my speeches, because much of MAGA is reportedly still furious about the Epstein Files.

Chomp Chomp Chomp

And now for the tough sinew of this chuck of throwaway … flesh:

  • In Maine, Governor Mills (D) has abandoned all hope before the primary:

    Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced Thursday she is dropping out of her race to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the crucial state for Democrats’ hopes of winning Senate control, saying she had run out of money to compete.

    Mills, a two-term governor and former prosecutor, had failed to excite Democrats in the state after launching her campaign last fall on a message of fighting President Donald Trump. Mills, 78, was a top recruit of Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer but lost ground quickly to Graham Platner, a 41-year-old oyster farmer who had never held elected office before but who has been drawing large crowds around the state with his blunt talk of confronting the establishment. [WaPo]

    And, contra my last post on Maine, the primary date of 9 June will be another blank entry in my brain, at least with regards to Maine, unless one of the two other candidates in the Democratic primary pull off a shocker. Senator Collins (R) does not have a challenger.

    Dissatisfaction with Congress may cost Senator Collins her job, as surprising as that may seem.

    Will Mills support Platner?

    In Mills’s statement, she didn’t mention Platner but said she would spend the rest of her gubernatorial term “working hard for you, standing up for what is right, defending the Constitution and doing what I can to preserve our democracy.”

  • Is appointed incumbent Senator Moody (R) of Florida facing a hidden challenge? One of the components of the voters for Republicans in Florida are Latino-Americans who find the Democratic position on undocumented workers off-putting. As I understand it, the reasoning goes that those who did the hard work that is required of naturalized Americans do not believe undocumented workers should have to do less, and so they won’t vote Democratic. But now, as MS NOW reports, there may be the winds of change in the air …

    Amid the Trump administration’s racist anti-immigrant crackdown, a reported surge in the arrests of Cubans isn’t merely a moral crisis — for Republicans, it could pose an electoral crisis as well.

    new study from the conservative-leaning Cato Institute found that due in part to a dramatic drop in the number of green card approvals, the Trump administration has overseen a massive spike in arrests. The report specifically found that “ending Cuban Adjustment Act green card approvals has certainly helped ICE to increase arrests of Cubans by 463 percent.”

    This report aligns with President Donald Trump’s campaign vow to pursue the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history and likely is welcome news to the conservatives who have complained that the administration hasn’t deported enough people. At the same time, the report arguably adds to ongoing questions about how the White House’s crackdown — which appears to be one of the reasons for Trump’s cratering poll numbers — will affect Republicans’ electoral hopes in the months, or even years, ahead.

    If enough Latinos decide they made a mistake in 2024, not only could House seats be flipped, but so could the Senate seat. I think this is a long-shot, especially as this reasoning is not reflected in the Florida polls I’ve reviewed, but President Trump has shown a knack for taking the wrong action at the wrong moment, a common problem for common liars and common criminals. And, from the same article, the words of true insiders can be more interesting than external critics …

    Rep. Maria Salazar, a Florida Republican whose parents were Cuban exiles, has been warning about Latinos turning away from the GOP in November’s midterms. But Salazar, who has introduced legislation that sets forth a pathway to citizenship for some undocumented immigrants, appears to have become a pariah among hard-liners in the MAGA movement.

    Stetson University is new to me, and I see it has what I will interpret as a conservative history and possible bias. Therefore, when its polling shows Senator Moody leading Alexander Vindman (D) 49% – 42%, and Florida House of Representatives member Angela Nixon 51%-38%, take it for what you will. The margins might be smaller.

  • In Texas, Texas Public Opinion Research suggests James Talarico (D), the Democratic nominee, has small leads over Senator Cornyn (R) and AG Paxton (R), who are locked in a deathmatch primary runoff. University of Texas polling gives somewhat larger gaps of 7 and 8 points, respectively, to Talarico vs Cornyn and Talarico vs Paxton.Questions that come to mind:
    • If Paxton loses the runoff, will he distract Texas voters with howls of fake elections?
    • If Cornyn loses the runoff, will he withdraw from politics in disgust?
    • Will Trump endorse either prior to the runoff, or will his need to be right delay him until too late?
    • If he does endorse, is that a disaster for the endorsee in the primary? If not there, in the general?
    • Finally, would Trump consider endorsing Talarico in a ballsy reverse-psychology move?
  • Louisiana is harboring a surprise. Venerable Emerson College is giving neither incumbent Senator Cassidy (R) nor Trump-endorsed Rep Julia Letlow (R) a lead in the Republican primary, but instead giving State Treasurer John Fleming (R) the lead. Granted, a 1 point lead over Letlow is hardly definitive, but it’s a provocative result when Letlow has the burden of a Trump endorsement. This is not to say the Republican Party of Louisiana has suddenly shifted towards moderation, as can be seen in the position summation of Mr. Fleming on the right, but that President Trump may be a non-factor – or, as I’ve said repeatedly and tiresomely, a burden.

  • In Georgia the University of Georgia’s polling shows Rep Collins (R) has a 22%-13% lead over Rep Carter (R), while retired football coach Derek Dooley has an 11% share. The poll shows Undecideds with a huge lead over all three of them at 53.6%. Because the primary is coming right up on May 19th, we may see a hugely dissatisfied group of primary voters sit this one out, or vote for a write-in candidate if that’s permitted. I should guess incumbent Senator Ossoff (D) is smiling.

    Ironically, the Republicans oppose ranked-choice voting, yet that might have been the biggest danger to the Senator, as a moderate Republican might actually be the choice of unhappy Georgia voters.

  • In Ohio, Senator Husted (R) has his first TV ad:, and David Bernstein has an important observation:

    OH Sen Jon Husted unveils his first TV ad of the campaign (vs Sherrod Brown) – it does not include the word “Republican,” or any mention of Trump, or any reference to GOP issues.

    At least in Ohio, Trump is not a popular word. But is Husted familiar enough to get him elected? Or is his challenger, the highly experienced Sherrod Brown (D), the better bet?

The 2026 Senate Campaign: Updates

“I’m Splitting !!!!”

According to this report in MS NOW, the annual CPAC get-together of highly conservative activists displayed splits along the fissure known as Trump’s War. Younger activists were more likely to consider the war a betrayal rather than, to use the language in the report, a reflection of of American Triumphalism’s accomplishments.

This emphasizes the conundrum GOP candidates for office, from incumbents to challengers, must solve in order to win: Are they a young MAGA or an old MAGA, and how congruent will that be for the relevant voter base? Do they dare challenge Trump’s War? Will that split their voter base? Could even Republican incumbents lose if they guess wrong?

In The Mundane Underpinnings Of The World

Here’s the old underpinnings and here’s the new:

  • James Byrd (D), a former member of the Wyoming House of Representatives for ten years, with some time spent in leadership positions, has entered the Democratic primary for Senator Lummis’ (R-WY) to-be-open Senate seat in Wyoming. The primary election is August 18th. For the record, Senator Barasso (R-WY) won his Senate seat with 75% of the vote in 2024, so Mr Byrd, regardless of his very real political credentials, has a big cliff to climb against presumed GOP candidate Rep Hageman (R-WY).

    Kudos to Byrd for at least trying.

  • On The Issues: Kevin Hern (R-OK).

    Senator Mullin (R-OK) of Oklahoma is no longer a member of the Senate, but Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. He’s also dropped out of the primary race, leaving the field open for Rep Kevin Hern (R-OK). Hern is another far-right conservative, as can be seen in the summation to your right, and might think the Oklahoma Senate seat is in his grasp. He may be right, but between his far right positions, the country’s negative reaction to same, and his lack of incumbency, this may turn out to be a struggle.

    Indeed, voters may wonder why Governor Stitt (R-OK) didn’t appoint Rep Hern to the job. Instead, Governor Stitt appointed avowed short-timer Alan Armstrong (R-OK), who is an energy company executive with no legislative experience.

    Now, I don’t think Democrats have much of a chance to flip the Oklahoma seat, but the Governor’s move was not calculated to maximize the Republican opportunity to retain that bit of furniture; it smacked more of repaying a favor. On the other hand, House Speaker Johnson, faced with the edge of a cliff, may have requested Rep Hern not be appointed due to Johnson’s own precarious position as a Speaker with virtually no majority.

  • Senator Tillis’ (R) to-be-open Senate seat in North Carolina may come under the control of the Democrats next January, as two three polls give former Governor Cooper (D) a sizable lead over former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. The first is unknown-to-me Harper Polling, which was founded for Republicans, so when they give Cooper a substantial lead, I take it seriously. The raw poll doesn’t appear to be available, but the 270 to win website points at this article:

    With primary season officially over in North Carolina, all eyes are set on North Carolina’s US Senate race. According to the latest Carolina Journal Poll, a survey of 600 likely North Carolina voters, Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper (48.9%) leads Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley (41.1%) by 7.8 points. Among registered independents, Whatley falls further behind with 32% support versus Cooper’s 52% support. [The Carolina Journal]

    The balance of the cited article is devoted to describing why North Carolina Republicans are in deep trouble. The most important part might be that last sentence, though: Among registered independents, Whatley falls further behind with 32% support versus Cooper’s 52% support. Independents hold the balance of power in most States, so when a candidate, or a candidate’s Party, becomes disapproved by the independents, they are in trouble.

    The second poll is listed as Healthier United North Carolina Statewide Survey[,] Presented by Morgan Jackson, Nexus Strategies and Paul Shumaker, Strategic Partners Solutions. They may be Democrat-leaning, I’m not sure, but they claim Cooper’s lead is 50%-32%, which seems absurdly large in Republican-controlled North Carolina, but not impossible.

    The third poll, just in, is from similarly unknown Catawba College Polling, but working with respected YouGov, and gives Cooper a 14 point lead:

    The survey also finds that Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley in the early horserace numbers for the U.S. Senate election, 48 percent to 34 percent among likely voters (including those who initially said they were undecided but lean toward a candidate), with 14 percent undecided.

    Could this be the early signs of an immense rejection of Republican culture and positions? North Carolina does not have a reputation as a nest of nasty liberals, but rather conservatives who pride themselves on good sense. The report also indicates a rejection of Trump and his policies is spreading throughout North Carolina. I still don’t see a move into the Democratic column, but if a credible third party achieved a popular centrist profile, I could see North Carolina moving in that direction.

  • Alaska Survey Research gives former Rep Peltola (D) a five point lead over incumbent Senator Sullivan (R) in Alaska, 49%-44%, in the general election, and the same margin, 46%-41%, in the jungle primary. Top four finishers in the primary move on to the general election, and the general election uses ranked-choice voting to select the winner.
  • Although this Quinnipiac University poll is not directly applicable to Senate contests, it’s a possible indicator of where things are going:

    If the election were held today, 51 percent of voters would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives, while 40 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control of the House.

    Among independents, 57 percent would want to see the Democratic Party win control, while 26 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control, with 17 percent not offering an opinion.

    It’s true the House generates more noise and reason worthy of despising than the Senate, but it’s still going to be a matter of concern to the Senate GOP caucus. Acting as if impotent will win no friends, and that’s been happening in the Senate.

  • I’m not sure about the credibility of The Alabama Poll, not having heard of it in prior elections, but I thought this report on the GOP primary is interesting. To remind the reader, I initially said,

    Steve Marshall is running for this seat, and he’s also held various positions in government related to the legal field. His strongest primary competition may be Rep Barry Moore, who sports an endorsement from President Trump. There are other Republican candidates, but they don’t seem to have relevant experience or potential to challenge Marshall or Moore.

    Is Rep Moore, Trump-endorsee, running away with the nomination, as he should if we are to believe Trump endorsements are gold?

    No. Here’s The Alabama Poll intro:

    Key Finding: Three candidates are statistically tied in Alabama’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate — Barry Moore at 22.8%, Steve Marshall at 20.7%, and Jared Hudson at 19.0% — each within the poll’s ±4.0% margin of error, with 34.5% of voters still firmly undecided. The conventional wisdom holds that President Trump’s endorsement and over $6 million in committed outside spending have effectively decided this race. The crosstabs disagree. I [Michael Lowry] follow the data. Right now, the data says the conventional wisdom is wrong.

    On The Issues: Rep Barry Moore. (R-AL).

    Bold not mine. I missed Mr Hudson‘s popularity to the GOP ranks; follow his link to see what little Ballotpedia has on him. But the real story here is the low polling numbers of the three leading candidates; Undecided is really leading the pack. As I’ve noted elsewhere, the Trump brand on your backside is no longer perceived as a guarantee of quality by those who might vote in a GOP primary; what will happen in a general election?

    At present, despite Moore’s weak result, I anticipate we’ll have a Senator Moore (R-AL) come January, no matter how extremist he may be; see the summation on the right. But it’s not impossible that one of the other two Republican candidates will beat him in the primary.

    The Democrats, however, have put up nobody with elective experience, and I do not recognize the names. It’s hard to imagine a Democrat winning this seat. The primary election is May 19.

And that’s it for this week. It seems to be quite a beginning surge for Democrats, but we’ll see how it goes.

A Little Gibberish Makes The Meds Go Down Easier

Or maybe Quote of the Day, but it’s just too embarrassing. From Truth Social via Jordan Rubin:

Birthright Citizenship is not about rich people from China, and the rest of the World, who want their children, and hundreds of thousands more, FOR PAY, to ridiculously become citizens of the United States of America. It is about the BABIES OF SLAVES! We are the only Country in the World that dignifies this subject with even discussion. Look at the dates of this long ago legislation — THE EXACT END OF THE CIVIL WAR! The World is getting rich selling citizenships to our Country, while at the same time laughing at how STUPID our U.S. Court System has become (TARIFFS!). ‘Dumb Judges and Justices will not a great Country make!’ [MS NOW]

It’s a bit like a pilot jiggling a lever while muttering It went up last time I jiggled this! but not noticing the plane’s engines fell off, only Trump’s levers are labeled Mendacity and Menace. Trump is shouting in demented anger because the world refuses to go his way, and meantime a jet fighter labeled Epstein Files is still trailing him. Getting anywhere beyond that is a puzzle.

I do wish I knew a scholar of Old Rome in order to discover if the last of the old Roman Emperors ended up shouting gibberish at the sky, crying for Jupiter to make what he cried so, so futile, so demented.

Yeah, you see something like this and you have to wonder how the Trump Administration continues, much less making war on Iran, proclaiming victory, claiming negotiations, and much else.

How much longer can MAGA tolerate him? Their chances to redeem themselves by protesting in front of the White House is slowly running out.

Belated Movie Reviews

“Three hundred years of being an innkeeper. Who knew immortality would be this terribly boring? Maybe next time I’ll screw up the sacrifice just to see if ‘L’ has it in him, her, it, to try to take me on!”

The City of the Dead (aka Horror Hotel; 1960) is an uneven tale of witches and their general motivations, in which the survivors of the persecution of witches in Whitewood, MA, possibly on both sides, have survived from the 1690s to the 1950s. Fresh blood is needed, though, to propitiate Lucifer (not seen here) and maintain their immortality, so when student Nan Barlow comes a-calling to gather information for a paper on witches, she becomes a sacrifice. It’s a dangerous intellectual pursuit, apparently.

Romantic interest Bill Maitland discovers she was last seen in Whitewood, so after a barking session at her professor, played by Christopher Lee, he and a sidekick make the dangerous drive to Whitewood, stopping at the gas station for directions, just like everyone else, which must bore the gas station owner something fierce. Once there, they discover the antique dealer has left hurriedly, the inn keeper has barely heard of Nan, the inn’s housekeeper is upset, and the townspeople will barely speak with them. Maybe not even that.

Eventually they discover enough clues to find Nan’s body, along with the cute antique dealer who is about to be sacrifice number two, who they rescue. Lucifer becomes mad about the missing sacrifice, and a whole lot of dead people end up … deader? Add in the sidekick, dying heroically, and it’s a goodly number.

Yes, the plot is a bit silly, but as I’ve said before, the charm of earnest horror eludes me; corny horror, however, can amuse me. Still, this plot had some egregious holes in it, such as the point of the professor in this story.

And why seek immortality?

On the other hand, the cinematography is gorgeous; the fog is overblown; the cars ponderous; and Maitland’s lack of reaction to the sacrifice of his fiancé is a disturbing big bell that falls unexpectedly flat.

If you are a Lee completist then you have to see this, but otherwise it’s for horror aficionados only.

Open Wider, Vortex

No doubt President Trump thought Iran would be an easy pushover win, bringing him a cheap glory to match his pretentious aesthetic sensibilities, much like Putin’s War began with letters to President Putin’s Army officers from the war’s namesake to take their dress uniforms with them when they attacked Ukraine, for use when Ukraine surrendered.

Both Presidents have proven incompetent war clairvoyants. In Trump’s case, this just happened:

• Houthis enter war: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels waded into the expanding Middle East conflict, announcing that they fired two missiles at Israel. The movement previously disrupted shipping lanes in the region, attacking vessels in the Red Sea in retaliation for Israel’s war against Hamas. [CNN]

While very few analysts wanted this war, I suspect this development surprises only a few of them, and rewards the balance with the bitter pleasure of Well, we were right. Wars are rarely as simple and predictable as overconfident amateurs like to predict. Sympathetic nations full of young men eager to prove their manhood allying themselves with the nation suffering the aggression, earned or not, is just one of the many unintended consequences of starting a war.

So are we seeing a war spinning up into a bigger war, a war for which we’re neither prepared nor properly armed? Will we have to accept a truce?

Maybe we can send Trump to his self-made enemy with a note pinned to his jacket saying, Do not return.

VP Vance had best be prepared to move into the position of President. This may happen in a big hurry.

Who’s next? From the same CNN report:

Strait passage: Iran will allow 20 Pakistani ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said. Pakistan has been acting as the mediator for negotiations between Iran and the US.

Pakistan also has nuclear weapons. Their chronic adversary, India, does as well, and has been under the control of virulent nationalists since around 2014, give or take. While Pakistan is trying to mediate Trump’s War, it’s not unknown for a mediator to join one side or another.

The next month should be very interesting.

Word Of The Day

Catenary:

The catenary is the shape taken by an inextensible, homogeneous, infinitely thin, flexible, massive wire hanging from two points, placed in a uniform gravitational field. Galileo posed the problem and observed that the curve followed by the wire was approximately an arc of parabola, the approximation improves when you extend the wire. These are Leibniz, Jean Bernoulli and Huygens who found, independently in 1691, the right equations. [“Catenary or Funicular Curve“, mathcurve.com]

Noted in this xkcd cartoon.

Yes, I’ve fallen, inadvertently, far behind on my xkcd studies.

Slash-and-burn Social Media

There’s a form of farming called Slash-and-burn agriculture,

Slash-and-burn agriculture is a form of shifting cultivation in agriculture that involves the cutting and burning of plants in a forest or woodland to create a field called a swidden. The process begins with cutting down the trees and woody plants in a given area. The downed vegetation, or “slash”, is left out to dry, usually right before the rainiest part of the year. The biomass is then burned, resulting in a nutrient-rich layer of ash which increases soil fertility and temporarily eliminates weeds and pests. After about three to five years, the plot’s productivity decreases due to depletion of nutrients along with weed and pest invasion, causing farmers to abandon the plot and move to a new area. The time it takes for a swidden to recover depends on the location and can be as little as five years to more than twenty years, after which the plot can be slashed and burned again, repeating the cycle. [Wikipedia]

As I was reading about the loss Meta Platforms, parent to Facebook, just suffered in court, it occurred to me that Meta is practicing Slash-and-burn Social Media. They, or ‘Z’ (for Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg) if you prefer, came into a field that had never experienced anything quite like this sort of social media, attracted a crop of users and advertisers, and then abused the former in order to satisfy the latter in a frenzied reaping of profit through a number of morally dubious schemes involving user information, most notably the Cambridge Analytica scandal. Now this comes along:

A jury ruled Tuesday that Meta must pay the state $375 million for failing to adhere to New Mexico’s laws related to unfair practices. The state’s lawyers alleged that Meta misled residents about the safety of its apps with respect to child sexploitation and related harms. [CNBC]

And

A New Mexico jury found Tuesday that the parent company of Facebook and Instagram knowingly hid what it knew about child exploitation on its social media platforms, prioritizing profits over safety. [WBUR]

The fine is peanuts, but having ruined the trust necessary to successfully running an immense social media institution, they tried to move on into other institutions: Instagram and, in a noteworthy blunder, threw away billions of dollars on the failed metaverse development. This jury decision brings into sharp relief the jagged edges of Zuckerberg’s broken morality, and is a symbol of just how much money that broken morality will cost Facebook.

We’re truly in the era of enormous power and enormous greed. This may not end until power plants literally go up in flames, depriving unlimited ambitions of the power needed to chase those dreams.

I wonder if ‘Z’ will try to buy up the Sahara desert to host solar panels galore? Microsoft and others are trying to go nuclear by partnering with Three Mile Island , in the case of Microsoft, to power their artificial intelligence (AI) efforts. ‘Z’ has ambitions in the AI sector, so he has to keep up, now doesn’t he?

The 2026 Senate Campaign: Updates

An Outsize Impact

President Trump (R) continues to have an outsize impact, at least in my perception, on the Senate races. From tariffs, which Trump continues to try to impose, to the Epstein Files, those Republican Senators who perceive their district’s citizenry as being influenced by Trump, or having anti-Trump sentiments, find they have to make decisions which may alienate large segments of the voters. If they try to dance on the line between them, they may lose both segments.

In this respect, those Senators demonstrate their failure to have a set of important moral principles. I expect Senators who disapprove of Trump to make that clear, and why. Consequences may fall on their heads, but leading through governance is their job. Their job is not necessarily retaining their job.

From the Racetrack

Continuing the call from the booth….

  • In Illinois, the March 17 primary yields a Senate seat contest between Lt Governor Juliana Stratton (D) and lawyer Don Tracy (R), plus three independents who have yet to impress me. Neither Stratton nor Tracy took more than 40% of the vote, but Tracy faces the bigger challenge as the Democratic primary drew more than 1.1 million ballots, while the Republican primary drew 0.35 million ballots.

    For the cryptocurrency industry this is a loss, as it backed Rep Raja Krishnamoorthi in the Democratic primary, but it’s hardly an existential loss. The cryptocurrency industry is brimming with new-money millionaires and billionaires who’ll fight to retain the source of their riches. Look for more contests in which the industry backs a candidate until they either begin winning, or a scandal occurs that substantially diminishes the industry’s already waning popularity.

  • Maine‘s Graham Platner (D) has been endorsed over Governor Mills (D) by Senator Warren (D-MA). In case I’ve not mentioned it before, Platner is a veteran and an oyster farmer, with some controversy in his past, but no elective office experience. Meanwhile, Governor Mills is older than the likely GOP nominee and incumbent, Senator Collins (R), currently 73.
  • Polls in Maine: Emerson College suggests Maine’s Senator Collins (R) is floundering a bit, with Governor Mills (D) holding a three point lead over the Senator at 46%-43%, and Graham Platner holding a larger 48%-41% lead. This Emerson College poll suggests Platner holds a large lead, 55%-28%, over Governor Mills in the primary race.

    Senator Collins is moderate enough that I puzzle over her not going independent and escaping the hot mess that is the GOP, as can be seen to the right on this On The Issues summation. If the gap widens after the primaries, she may start noising such a change about, although I’m not familiar with Maine’s political atmosphere and that might be suicide rather than an acceptable maneuver.

    More important, though, is the fact that a moderate Republican Senator of her years and standing is in trouble. Does this indicate trouble brewing for “safe”, more conservative Senators who’ve made the mistake of placating the President, thus infuriating constituents? Especially in the face of idealistic youth?

  • I thought Nebraska would be a placid victory for incumbent Senator Ricketts (R), but apparently the Nebraska GOP doesn’t think so. In the uninteresting part of the news, since my last notice of Nebraska, the Senator has lost primary challenger Edward Dunn (R), but gained four others, none of whom appear noteworthy. Why do they bother?

    But on the Democratic side, two entrants have appeared, Cindy Burbank (D) and William Forbes (D). Again, on their own they are not interesting – no relevant experience. So why is the Nebraska GOP suing them? And losing?

    Democrat Cindy Burbank will be back on the ballot for the state’s U.S. Senate race after the state Supreme Court ruled Monday that the state’s top election official [Secretary of State Bob Evnen] overstepped and missed a deadline to consider complaints.

    “We hold that regardless of who is objecting to a candidate filing form, the plain language of § 32-624 requires that unless the written objection is made within 7 days after the filing deadline, the candidate filing form shall be deemed valid,” the high court wrote.

    Burbank is the second Democratic candidate that Nebraska Republicans had tried to get off the ballot this cycle  — Burbank and Douglas County sheriff candidate Mark Martinez. Both have now sued successfully to reach the ballot. Both were placed back on by the Nebraska Supreme Court or a judge acting on the court’s behalf. [Nebraska Examiner]

    The really interesting part is the allegations:

    Attorneys for Evnen and the Nebraska Republican Party had argued that Burbank’s campaign website and comments from Nebraska Democratic Party chair Jane Kleeb indicated Burbank did not plan to serve in Congress but planned to compete for the nomination and eventually support registered nonpartisan Dan Osborn. But Burbank’s legal team argued the decision to remove her from the ballot violated her First Amendment rights and the U.S. Constitution’s qualifications clause.

    Burbank’s attorneys argued voters should be able to decide the nominee and that the same scrutiny should be applied to the other Democrat in the Senate race, William Forbes, whom some have alleged is trying to help U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb. The Nebraska GOP’s attorney rejected that characterization of Forbes, saying there is no “proof.” Forbes has sidestepped a question about whether he wanted to address allegations of being “loyal” to Ricketts. …

    Burbank has said on her campaign website that she would drop out if she won the nomination and support Osborn because she wants to give him a “fair shot against Ricketts.”

    Machinate, machinate, sounds like a spell. Why does the Nebraska GOP care about any of this? Is Senator Ricketts, the appointed successor to Senator Sasse (R), in trouble according to GOP internal polls?

    Nebraska’s primary election will be held on May 12, which will be dull on the Republican side and, quite possibly, fascinating on the Democratic side.

  • Regarding the open Iowa Senate seat,

    Today, VoteVets is announcing that it is beginning an ad campaign in Iowa to help elect Joshua Turek to the U.S. Senate. The fully integrated paid media campaign, which will begin this week with an $825,000 ad buy, will run statewide on broadcast, cable, and satellite television as well as on digital platforms including streaming platforms, YouTube, digital audio, and on social media. It will help introduce Josh Turek as a fighter for working families to voters across Iowa. [VoteVets]

    Rep Turek currently has three competitors in the Democratic primary. The Iowa primary election is June 2nd.

  • Emerson College is giving New Hampshire Rep Pappas (D) a slim one point lead over former Senator John Sununu (R-NH), 45%-44%, presuming each wins their primary for what will be the empty New Hampshire Senate seat. New Hampshire has two Representatives, so using Pappas’ electoral results in his House district may not be terribly relevant, but it appears he averages roughly eight point victories, so he’s not anomalously unpopular over his career.

And that’s it for this week’s soap opera accounting.

Get Out The Goat Entrails, Ctd

If the Republicans can’t hear the alarm bells now, they were born without ears. A special election in Florida District 87, won by Republicans in 2024 by 20 points, resulted in the seat being flipped last night by Democrat Emily Gregory, 51.2 – 48.8.

This is considered a deep-red district.

And it contains Mar-a-Lago, the President’s residence.

It’s certainly true that a President doesn’t have to live in a district with endless fidelity to them, but we’re talking Florida, where the Democratic Party has demonstrated little recent competency, and the district is Republican.

It appears the Republicans are now despised by Floridians.

Can the Democrats correct their ideological errors and take one of the most important, electorally speaking, States in the Union? Given DNC Chairman Ken Martin’s decision to hide their post-mortem, probably not.

First Came Sports Betting …

But what do you call this? War betting? Battle betting?

Well, former Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel (D-IL) doesn’t like this shit.

“Somebody clearly with inside information inside the government was making bets, made money,” he said in an interview. “You have fellow Americans, what I call the true 1%, the people that volunteer to serve the interests of this country and its national security, they’re putting their lives on the line[,] and you’ve got somebody else sitting in his or her basement placing bets on it.” [KOIN.com]

Grifters don’t have much for a moral sense.

There’d Be Greater Glory

I wonder how long it’ll take, if ever, for President Trump to relieve the Joint Chiefs of Staff of their positions and give orders directly to the combat commanders involved in Trump’s War. This would, in Trump’s demented mind, lead to greater glory, now wouldn’t it?

Would those commanders tolerate it?

What Does He Always Do? Chant It With Me

This headline has been evolving all day on CNN:

Iran denies talks with US as Trump claims ‘major points of agreement’ (paywall)

Early versions didn’t mention Iranian denials; they might not have been announced yet. I mentioned it to my Arts Editor and she said, “Trump must be out of bombs.”

It may well be that Trump is running out munitions, especially keeping in mind China and Russia will advance and challenge a weak leader like Trump if they perceive weakness; Trump may have been warned by his generals that his short, glorious war will be neither short nor glorious given how Iran is dug in.

But because Trump lives on reputation, he’s sensitive to changes in it. Trump’s War was not the quick and, if I might use that word again, glorious victory he no doubt envisioned. Instead, Iran is hitting back. Iranian leadership decapitated? They were replaced.

In a word, Trump, in his own mind, looks weak. He banked on looking strong and failed.

What’s his general fallback tactic? We all know it, folks, even his supporters know it.

LIE, LIE, LIE.

It’s an instinct for him. This time around he’s probably lying about having these talks, hoping whoever speaks for Iran plays along. He’s already given them a chance to sell oil, believing that to be a win-win maneuver, as Iran gets some cash and Trump gets the price of oil down.

But everyone watching knows this is Trump trying to wriggle out of yet another mistake.

Now, this could be wrong. The Iranian leadership may be lying, although I haven’t yet found angle in it for them, although I will note that, as theocrats, they’re not good people. But it’s far easier to believe Trump is lying, because that’s what he does.

Still, I do hope he announces a cease-fire that Iran publicly agrees to, because people will then be less likely to die. I don’t expect it, but I hope for it.

Belated Movie Reviews

Mocking this film is a dangerous avocation. Still, old Bessie was quite the charmer and easily the most normal character in this story.

The Old Man (2019; Estonian: Vanamehe film) presents the pleasant earthiness of rural life to three children who’ve been brought to stay with their grandparents over the summer.

They have a plenitude of experiences awaiting them: the death, the funeral, and the resurrection of their grandfather; an obscure deep-forest hippy party; the madman of the commercial world; the mad-tree of the forest; the trusty Do It Yourself spirit of earthy rural folk; the deep love for the milk of the cow; how their love of tradition benefits them; and how to milk a cow.

It’s that last subject driving this story, as we discover, or at least reminded, that cows must be milked to a regular schedule, and that terrible things happen should the schedule be disrupted.

Terrible things. Involving electric guitars.

But enough on the plot. References to other movies are rife, to the extent I’m left wondering what I’ve missed. I counted old favorite Pacific Rim (2013), the venerable Chicken Run (2000), and the squalid The Human Centipede (2009). Cryptids are a critical component, and stories involving untranscribable dialog, an obscure tradition applicable to the children in this story, to whom adults are some other species, are also referenced throughout this story.

This is all told with a gleeful humor glorying in, well, fart jokes and worse, taken to extremis. It’s all about the earthiness, I suppose.

My Arts Editor and I followed it into Hell, but only out of morbid curiosity. Our mouths gaped and we periodically muttered that the dialog was unintelligible and unaided by the captioning. The cinematography was clean; the imagination unencumbered by constraints such as believability. The psychological profiles richly varied, united only in their pathological roots.

I do not recommend this. Even if you’re over the age of forty.

Don’t Sell At The Bottom, Ctd

It’s been a month or so since I last commented on DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group Corp), and a lot has happened since then related to DJT‘s star property, namely Donald J. Trump, President of the United States. Do investors see the future of  DJT, in view of the war initiated with Iran by Trump, his reactions to losing the tariffs case in the Supreme Court, as well as as Trump’s behaviors, in a positive or negative light?

It seems negative. On February 8 DJT‘s price per share closed at $11.45, while last Friday, March 20th, investors priced that same share and market close at $8.58, for a 25% drop in value. See here for a current price. Or, as the Wall Street Journal headline explained,

DJT Stock Falls to All-Time Low

I do not see the DJT price and price trend as a prognostication of Trump’s political future. Investors are focused on economic futures, and politics has varying influence on the future of companies, which is sometimes leads to unpredictable results.

But DJT‘s future is inevitably tied up in Trump, and as his popularity wanes further, DJT‘s chief product and potential spinoff material, Truth Social, will continue to lose value. The value of any social media is partially determined by the trustworthiness of its lead participants, and the trustworthiness of the Mendacity Machine, aka Trump, is virtually zero. Only those who see Trump as a ladder to fame and fortune use Truth Social, I rather suspect.

Another headline, this one from 24/7 Wall St, points to another problem:

DJT Is No Longer a Media Company. It’s a Bitcoin Treasury With a Brand

That problem is that cryptocurrencies are losing value. Bitcoin (BTC) coins are now trading at below $70K/coin, well off its TTM (trailing twelve month) high of $124K/coin. It’s been in this range for a while, so it may recover – but I won’t be betting on it. I am still inclined to agree with Mr. Farr:

Richard Farr, chief market strategist and partner at Pivotus Partners, has issued a stark prediction for Bitcoin (BTC-USD), setting a price target of zero for the cryptocurrency.

“Our BTC price target is 0.0. That’s not just for shock factor. It’s where the

And DJT‘s foray into fusion power? While its potential is great, the required investment is huge and requires immense expertise. Don’t expect a cheapskate like Donald J. Trump, always distracted by cost, to even try to pull it off.

Finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t echo the observations of many pundits: President Trump appears to be descending into dementia. Listening to some of his press conferences is to try to interpret gibberish, as the jumps from topic to topic morph into meaningless noises. Perhaps his legion of minions should suggest Trump is the second coming of the Delphic Oracle. But it bodes poorly for DJT.

As always, I’m just an investor with an opinion and a mouth. There is no certified financial advice present in this post, nor should it be taken that way.

The Case Against

In case my reader has heard a bit about the SAVE Act, and wonders about the opposition, here’s Norm Ornstein on Morning Joe. Ornstein, yes, is a Democrat, and worked in the Obama Administration as an expert in governmental ethics. But he’s also scholar emeritus at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. This position should bring a measure of credibility for folks who don’t trust Democrats. The SAVE Act has to do with … securing elections.

Katty Kay: If Republicans say this bill is simply about voter ID — something many Americans support — why has it sparked so much opposition?

NO: This isn’t about voter ID. It’s about voter suppression. The bill would require every registered voter to reregister in person using documents like a passport or certified birth certificate, which many people don’t have and can be costly to obtain. That amounts to a modern-day poll tax.

JL: Some Republicans argue this is needed to combat voter fraud, even after winning the last election. What’s your response?

NO: The actual level of voter fraud is vanishingly small — about 0.07% of votes cast. So what’s being presented as a popular voter ID effort is really a Trojan horse for something else entirely.  …

John Heilemann: Rev, what does this actually mean in practice? Who bears the brunt of policies like this?

Al Sharpton: It’s a textbook example of how to make it harder for people of color to vote in large numbers — and to use that to maintain political power.

MB: What about people who don’t have easy access to documents — say older Americans or those born decades ago?

NO: Many don’t have passports and may not know where their birth certificates are. Replacing those documents can be complicated and expensive, and a lot of people could end up effectively shut out of voting.

Let’s address a common argument I’m sure is out there: It’s not possible to prove a negative, that is, that there is little to no fraud.

Speaking as a software engineer, which means I have to deal with logic every day, this requires some context, and by this I mean the addendum, in the unlimited case. When you’re dealing with an unlimited scenario, it’s always possible to imagine the unexamined ballots are falsified. But if there’s a limit, then you can process and verify each such ballot, given enough resources such as folks to work on it, in the most naive approach. But clever people work on this problem all the time.

Here in Minnesota, for example, there are lists of valid voter names for each precinct, and when you walk in and give your name, its checkbox is checked, and if it’s already been checked then that’s a clue that someone’s trying to cheat. Names are cross-referenced against lists of dead people so that when someone requests a mail-in ballot, dies before it is completed and sent back, and some relative decides, quite against the law, that the late relative should still get to vote, that illegal vote is caught, and a little questioning of the relatives will usually catch the lawbreaker.

These and similar procedures serve to catch the vast majority people who want to cheat voters.

But President Trump specifically talks of non-citizens voting, shipped in via bus, and students. Let’s address what he won’t: Who are these idiots? By which I mean these hypothetical cheaters.

Why am I calling them idiots? Because the potential penalties for voting when you’re not permitted are non-trivial; they’re on the order of five years in prison. If the illegal voter isn’t a citizen but is working towards it, they’ve put their potential citizenship at risk. Consider this case of a woman in Texas. And whatever for? For one vote. Hardly does a single vote matter; rarely does a bus full of students. The risk/reward ratio is tilted towards the State, not the cheater.

So why is the voter fraud rate not 0%? Well, when you have around 300 million people of voting age in the country, there’s always a few misinformed folks, such as the woman described at the link, above, and there’s always a few idiots who think they’ll never be caught.

But it’s not a horde and the responsible officials, Republican, Democrats, or independents, have good reason to work hard to make it all work.

And that’s why the Save ACT is unnecessary and repressive.