It’s time to step back and evaluate the status of Trump’s War. Keep in mind, this is not an easy thing to do for working dudes like me and, probably, you, because I have neither expertise nor access to sources confidential. All I have to is forty+ years of watching politics and the occasional war, and anything that goes with it.
Here’s what I observe: After something like eight weeks of war …
- We’ve seen President Trump set his goal to be unconditional surrender. For us civilian types, it’s generally perceived as a sexy, we-are-dominant hurdle that’s easy to understand. The President has proclaimed we’ve achieved it – at multiple points in the war. Remember, this President has not served, yet during his 2016 campaign claimed his time in a military-oriented school qualified him on matters military better than most serving, a remark that should have caused his supporters to desert him because it’s so laughable. We can deduce that he didn’t use the phrase to keep it simple for the electorate, but to keep it simple for himself. After eight weeks of repeated proclamations of victory, have we achieved it? No.
- We have claims of leadership decapitation and regime change, two closely associated phrases. Accomplished? Certainly, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed early on, along with many of his organizational leaders. However, the framework on which the Iranian theocracy braced its power does not appear to have been seriously damaged; in fact, it appears a successor plan kicked in at most or all organizations, resulting not in regime change, but regime continuation. Khamenei himself was replaced by a favored son.
- Destruction of the (Persian) civilization has been threatened by President Trump. Was this wise? The rest of the world denounced it as the actions of a barbarian. So? So long-term success comes from picking the right allies, not from being the biggest bully on the block, and the pool of allies begins shrinking once they perceive our sense of honor is defective. Such allies are not only a military force, but allies from which to build prosperity through trade. If people no longer trust us, they may no longer trade with us, and so much the worse for us.
- Trump likes to swagger about, enjoying the glory of nearly unlimited power, right up until he, and the rest of the world, discovers it’s not. Our earlier complete obliteration of their nuclear purification sites wasn’t. Now the world is discovering, right along with Trump, American military limits, from destroying hardened targets to the difficulties of operating bleeding edge military technology (see: American naval air units being lost off of carriers). I’m not dissing the military, they are doing hard, hard things. But pay attention: President Theodore Roosevelt famously said, Speak softly and carry a big stick. A related thought is that a big stick unswung is far scarier than a hollow tube that busted on first use. The latter is President Trump running his mouth and giving away the game.
For more on Trump’s idiot proclamations, see Steve Benen’s thoughts.
We’re two months into a war that I’ll bet was forecast to last not more than a week; much like the lead character in Putin’s War, in which officers were ordered to bring their dress uniforms so they could be worn at the victory parades forecast to occur a week later, Trump is finding out that war plans rarely survive first contact with adversaries.
One more thought, since I can see some MAGA-affiliated readers shaking their heads. Remember, Trump’s greatest skill isn’t being a military leader, a business boss, or even a golf champ. No.
After conning his father into giving him money, his greatest skill is as an actor. Not that he’s any great shakes, and in my lone theater course in college, the prof would have downgraded him to performer, because he’s very one note.
But that doesn’t mean he’s not honed those skills. He can deliver loony crap in a business like tone that seems believable. I’ve seen him do it. SecDef Hegseth, a former Fox News host, has that skill, too. But under analysis, threats to destroy civilizations no longer seem reasonable; they are the babble of a bully hoping he can talk his way out of a situation.
And that all means Iran is winning. They took a heavy punch, then they took the Strait of Hormuz, then they took a cease-fire, all while making Trump look the fool – and, by extension, MAGA, and then all Americans.
Hey, long time readers know I hate theocracies, and Iran may have been the worst of the lot. But I’m running a dispassionate analysis here, as much as I can, and Iran’s playing the long game far better than Trump.
