ADMIN NOTE
WordPress, the software powering this blog, is not entirely free of bugs. One of the Campaign Updates has the wrong date stamp, and I missed it, so now I have to reference Campaign Updates that don’t appear correct, yet are.
My apologies.
DO YOU REALLY WANT TO FOCUS THE PUBLIC LIKE THIS?
President Trump sure loves a circus, however he defines it, and this may be something that impressed him in his youth:
President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that Republicans will hold their first-ever national convention ahead of November’s midterm elections, an unusual event aimed at boosting turnout in races that will decide whether the party maintains control of Congress.
The convention will be held in Dallas on Sept. 9 and 10.
Although both major parties traditionally hold blockbuster conventions during presidential campaigns, Trump has long floated the idea of a similar gathering this year to focus voters’ attention on a sprawling collection of House and Senate races. [AP]
Ah, a political convention. Fanatical fans, er, delegates. Speeches, clapping, adoration, and the learned analysis afterwards. How can a man with pathological narcissism and probably dementia resist? It’ll be just like the conventions of his youth: drama, horse-trading, maybe a murder or two…
However, reminding voters of the President and Party that have brought economic ruin, artificial intelligence, data centers, and war down on their heads doesn’t strike me as a wise approach to the midterms. But he loves that sweet and delicious attention, no matter how much it costs Republicans.
So is this a convention that’ll cost Republicans a Senate seat or two, or will the Democrats’ shift to the left, with Mamdani’s New York City victory and progressive candidates who don’t realize that left extremism has no more appeal to the independents than right extremism, negate the potential pickup?
HOW ABOUT VOTING AT ALL?
Will the SAVE Act become law? Speaker Johnson (D-LA) claims so, but retiring Senator Tillis (R-NC) strongly disagrees:
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) says the SAVE America Act, President Trump’s No. 1 legislative priority, is “dead” on Capitol Hill because there is not enough time to change election laws before the midterms — even if Senate Republicans muster 60 votes for the legislation, which is unlikely.
“Unless they do the work to get to the 60 votes, they know it’s dead, and so all this is theater,” Tillis told The News & Observer, repeating arguments he has made in Washington calling on GOP colleagues to move on to other priorities. [The Hill]
BACK ON THE RANCH
The barn full of old news is thataway.
- Fox News Polling is giving Georgia incumbent Senator Ossoff (D) a big lead of 56% – 43% to Trump endorsee and GOP nominee Rep Mike Collins (R). The Senator may have been considered vulnerable prior to the mid-term season, but so far the GOP pick is looking like a mistake. Then again, the other two major candidates, Rep Carter (R) and former football coach Derek Dooley (R), also struck me as unsuited to the position as well.
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On The Issues: Rep Hinson (R-IA).
Fox News Polling is giving Democratic nominee Iowa State Representative Josh Turek (D) a four point lead of 50% – 46% over GOP nominee and Trump-endorsed US Rep Ashley Hinson (R), just outside of the margin of error of ±3 points. This race should be interesting as Hinson is not as far-right as many of her fellows in other Senate races; perhaps that’s why she attracted Trump’s endorsement, although he’s mostly attracted to being right rather than being a leader.
- In Michigan State Senator McMorrow (D), last seen trailing badly in the Democratic primary in third place behind El-Sayed (D) and Rep Stevens (D), has dropped out. CNN’s reporting includes
McMorrow’s exit ahead of the early August primary doesn’t just reflect her own struggles, but also an emphasis among many Democrats to stop El-Sayed, out of fear he would be a weaker general election candidate against former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican.
McMorrow, in a video on X, touted her achievements as majority whip of the state Senate and urged her supporters to “elect Democrats up and down the ticket” in November, though she did not endorse either of her former opponents.
“Whoever wins this primary on August 4 will have my full support,” she said.
McMorrow had earlier rejected Senator Schumer (D) as Democratic leader in the Senate, so it’s not clear to me why CNN thinks McMorrow dropping out will benefit the establishment candidate, Rep Stevens. Rep Stevens did pick up the immediate endorsements of Michigan AG Dana Nessel and of EMILY’s List, an abortion rights group.
But suggesting Michigan independent voters might go for former Rep Mike Rogers (R) over El-Sayed is a bit of stretch, too, as Rogers will be closely identified with President Trump, whose chronic mendacity is becoming more and more widely known and loathed. I’d be more concerned about a progressivism that may not appeal to Michigan voters, resulting in their absence from the polls.
- In Massachusetts Rep Moulton (D), Senator Markey’s (D) main rival in the upcoming primary, may have mis-stepped on the transgender issue, if Leon Sapir has the proper numbers. While the impact may appear small, when one trails in a race even the smallest mistake can be catastrophe.
- In Alaska, naked intimidation is the order of the day, according to NBC News:
State and federal prosecutors in Alaska are investigating whether the campaign for a U.S. Senate candidate who has the same name as the Republican incumbent could be part of a conspiracy to confuse voters, two people with knowledge of the investigations told NBC News.
Despite this …
Just this week, the Alaska Supreme Court ruled that Dan J. Sullivan can stay on the state’s August primary ballot. The state’s elections division had initially disqualified the challenger from the ballot, with Elections Director Carol Beecher alleging that the challenger filed to run “with a purpose to confuse or mislead” voters.
It looks to me like the second Dan Sullivan has been given the big O K. It is true that, in the cited article, he has a shit-eatin’ grin on his face, but please don’t convict on the count of his teeth.
- It’s chaos in Maine as the Democratic nominee for the seat currently held by Senator Collins, oyster farmer and Marine veteran Graham Platner (D), is now being accused of rape.
A woman who said she previously dated Graham Platner, the 41-year-old ex-Marine and Democratic nominee in Maine for the U.S. Senate seat, alleged in interviews with The Washington Post that he sexually assaulted her in her home near the end of 2021.
Jenny Racicot said Platner showed up at her home intoxicated after she sent him a text that she says he misinterpreted as an invitation to come over. She told The Post he entered her home through an unlocked door and then immediately climbed on top of her on her couch as she repeatedly told him no. She said he went on to have nonconsensual intercourse with her in her bedroom. [WaPo]
The title of this TPM article says it all:
Dam Breaks As Elected Dems Withdraw Support, Urge Platner to Drop Out of Maine Senate Race
Are the allegations true, or is this a political hit job? And who’s the backer?
Either way, there are three groups party to this nomination.
- The backers of Platner. I take this to be the younger segment of the Maine Democratic Party, who are generally more progressive; this also includes out of state endorsers, though, such as Senator Sanders (I-VT) and Senator Warren (D-MA). For the Maine Democrats, this may embitter them, but if they’re serious about being involved in politics, regardless of the flavor, this is a learning opportunity: Screen your candidates and keep the adoration in check. The former has been done successfully, intermittently, by both parties; adoration, as irrational and destructive as it can be, is a near-constant of politics, I’ve noted, even among members of my own extended family. But will the embittered Platner backers vote for a replacement candidate? Hard to say. And this event does suggest the Democrats nation-wide need to strengthen the gatekeeper functionality of the Party.
- The Democratic establishment, who backed Governor Mills (D). Did they decide to take back the process and dictate a nominee, or are they merely the folks who’ll have to clean this up through some sort of pre-election operation? Investigative journalists will be examining the public record of the accuser, and that may tell us if this sordid tale is sadly true, or if an angry Democratic establishment decided to remove him.
- The Republican Party. If the Platner backers are embittered, the Republicans must be bitterly frustrated. Here’s right wing pundit Erick Erickson’s assessment of the Maine Senate race from 29 May:
Graham Platner, the Nazi turned Communist, in Maine, has hired a bunch of mercenaries not personally invested in him and a bunch of far-left progressives who see everything in terms of warfare. In Maine, most voters pride themselves on independence, and they will reject a Communist and his communist staff who believe you’re either a communist or the enemy.
While trusting any pundit, including me, is a problematic conundrum, and Erickson has a certain reckless love of the hyperbolic adjective, Erickson’s core assessment is probably more accurate than Platner’s backers would like. Platner had far too many problems, and this will be, in my assessment, the straw that breaks the camel’s back, as well as the Republican Party’s hopes for an easy Maine Senate victory. Honestly, I’ve been watching Platner stumble from one gopher hole to the next badger hole, feeling his odds were getting worse and worse, and now the Republicans will watch in disbelief as he repudiates the nomination on 7 or 8 July; soon after, Governor Mills will be selected for the nomination, and if that’s not done in an offensive manner (see: Kamala Harris), we’ll see an old politico beating up old politico action, which will have a 50% chance of resulting in a Senator Mills. This, in the end, may actually be fortunate for the Democrats.
APPENDIX A.1.x.y.z
Perhaps Maine will move back to the Likely to Flip column, but that’s not entirely clear just yet.
