Monthly Archives: September 2026

THE REPUBLICANS IN RETREAT

In case the interested reader hadn’t heard,

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is shifting its focus away from the North Carolina and Georgia Senate races as it works to shore up red states like Texas and flip other Democratic-held seats.

In a closed-door meeting Wednesday [9/23], Sen. Tim Scott, the chair of the NRSC, told Senate Republicans that the campaign arm will focus its spending going forward on defending GOP seats in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas and trying to flip the Democratic-held seats of Michigan and New Hampshire, according to four people in the room who were granted anonymity to share private details. [Politico]

Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas were no doubt considered safe six months ago, I’m sure. Thinking of their behavior, increasingly at variance from the world of independent voters, I conclude the inhabitants of the epistemic bubble have a hard time interacting with the real world. Now the Republicans have given up on North Carolina and Georgia, and Ohio should probably be on that list.

And why the hurried separation? Here’s a sample.

TRUMP SALLIES FORTH?

Or is he just dooming the Republicans?

After a break from the campaign trail to host China’s president in Washington — and to attend sporting events in Knoxville, Tennessee, and Chicago this weekend — President Donald Trump is planning to get back to the rally stage next week.

But instead of visiting some of the nation’s most competitive House districts or Senate races, Trump is set to visit much friendlier territory: Oklahoma and Alabama.

The red-state itinerary comes as Trump’s approval rating remains at a second-term low and as a growing number of Republicans in competitive races are distancing themselves from him. [WaPo]

Does he just want to start in friendly territory, or are Oklahoma and Alabama in play? Neither has had a recent poll that I see anywhere.

BUT SURELY THERE’S SOMETHING?

Oh, it’s too late for the Republicans to save their Senate bacon. Still, seats on the edge might be salvageable, and I think Senate Majority Leader Senator Thune (R-SD) understands that.

Barely five weeks before November’s midterm elections, Senate Republicans are rushing to pass more legislation that they can run on as polling shows Democrats within striking distance of retaking the chamber.

The Senate is expected to vote on legislation this week meant to protect consumers from high electricity costs caused in part by the data center building boom. And some Republicans are pushing to take up other bills to address voters’ frustrations with the cost of living.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) decided against sending senators home early last week to campaign, opting instead to keep the Senate in session to try to bolster Republicans’ legislative record. This week is the last that the Senate is scheduled to be in session before Election Day. [WaPo]

These are the right things to do, especially in the teeth of the tsunami initiated by the President and protected by Republican votes. I suspect too many of the Republican members of Congress, amateurs mostly, didn’t know what to do and felt bound to the Amateur-in-Chief.

A false allegiance. I hope voters take note and do not put more amateurs in charge.

BUT THE DEMOCRATS?

What is their strategy for the final month+?

How are you approaching the final stretch message-wise?
Emphasizing the economy, corruption. I think that there is still work to do with the positive messaging. And I think our candidates have shown a pretty good flair for making the arguments about bread-and-butter issues and how they’re going to come to Washington and try and press Trump to change his priorities. So we’re still going to be grounded in things that have been working here for a while. [JB Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC (Democrats-aligned), Politico]

Sounds reasonable to me. From WaPo:

Former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown, who is challenging Husted, has spent millions of dollars on ads attacking Husted over his support for data centers, which the ads blame for “causing electric bills to spike by thousands of dollars.” The National Republican Senatorial Committee warned in a memo last month that the ads are effective, describing data centers as an “anchor hanging around Husted’s neck.” …

Husted has defended his record on data centers and criticized Brown for supporting them in the past. He described his bill as a way to “show the American people that we’re serious about driving down electric prices and making life more affordable for them” — and he almost dared Democrats to block it.

Execution of the plan.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THEIR AUTOCRATIC TENDENCIES?

That’s a good question. Both Andrew Sullivan and Megan McArdle have suggested the left’s woke phenomenon may be fading away. But is that the same as Democratic autocratic tendencies being rejected? Or are they still decaying away from democracy?

FOR THE ABSENT-MINDED

Pollster ratings and leanings are from Silver Bulletin’s pollster rating service, courtesy Nate Silver.

HAVING BUGS IN EVERY HEADQUARTERS

It gives me a real headache. Here’s the previous issue of buggy bugs in insect holes.

• One of the Sullivans may still have a chance. Alaska Senate race leader Mary Peltola’s (D)  campaign may be having some troubles:
  

  Former Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D-Alaska) Senate campaign has pushed back against a report from The New York Times on Wednesday that detailed chaos in her campaign operation.

  Several former Peltola aides who requested anonymity told the Times about profane outbursts and displays of anger throughout the campaign and her former congressional office. The tensions also allegedly led to a staffing shakeup days before Alaska’s August primary.

  Her campaign denied any pattern of problematic behavior, but it acknowledged she “sometimes struggled to deal with her grief” after the 2023 deaths of her mother and husband. Eugene Peltola was killed in a plane crash. [The Hill]

  The Trafalgar Group (B, with a heavy Republican slant) has Peltola leading the ranked-choice vote over incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R), 46.8% – 45.5%. Margin of error is ±2.9 points.

  WaPo, though, suggests Alaska’s problems are sharper than most States’, and that this will more than compensate for any problems in Peltola’s campaign management.

  This is one of the most unexpected pickup opportunities of 2026 for Democrats. Will it slip through their fingers?

• The Trafalgar Group (B, with a heavy Republican slant) has South Carolina Senator D. Graham (R-SC) in a statistical tie with Dr Annie Andrews, 43.4% – 42.3%, margin of error of ±2.9 points. 8.5% has yet to decide, and 5.9% are generally dissatisfied with the major parties.

  This, too, is a huge and unexpected pickup opportunity for the Democratics. The Senator had best up her game, distance herself from the President, and hope he drops the entire tariff maneuver.

  Or she may lose.

• The Trafalgar Group (no, I’m not repeating myself) estimates Rep Pappas (D) leads former Senator John Sununu (R) for Senator Shaheen’s (D) seat in New Hampshire, 47.4% – 40.5%, with, again, a margin of error of ±2.9 points. This is a larger lead than that accorded by Siena College (A) in the last Campaign Update and Pappas could be excused if he takes heart. However, Sununu is an experienced politician, obviously, and comes from a family well-known and liked in New Hampshire. The game’s not over just yet, but Sununu needs to make up some ground, and with the independents. This pollster has party participation numbers for this poll of Democrats = 30.3%, Republicans=35.9%, and No Party=33.8%. I doubt the Republicans are shying away from Sununu, unless he’s considered too moderate, so Pappas must be doing well with the independents.

  If this is a trustworthy poll.

• Texas Democratic nominee for the Senate seat up for grabs, James Talarico (D), wants to debate rival and Republican nominee and state AG Ken Paxton (R). Paxton may be backed into a corner: debate and display ineptitude or, worse, a moral turpitude, or look like he’s afraid. This may be checkmate.

  If you want a report from someone on the ground, here’s Jim Geraghty. He thinks Talarico can pull this off.

• In Iowa InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) gives Josh Turek (D) a 47.4% – 45.7% lead over Rep Hinson (R). Margin of error is ±2.83 points, so this is another statistical tie.
• InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) gives Troy Jackson (D) a slight lead of 46.4% – 45.6% over Senator Collins (R) in the Maine Senate race, again with a margin of error ±2.83 points, another statistical tie.

  The editorial section of The Portland Press Herald is outraged at the incumbent Senator, which may serve to highlight her alleged corruption, noted in the previous Campaign Update for Maine, for Mainers unaware of it.
  

  It is extremely disappointing to watch Collins and members of her staff move to immediately discredit a thorough and fair piece of investigative journalism on political and personal grounds.

  The Collins campaign’s emphasis on the events taking place “seven years ago” cynically attempts to detract from the crux of the story, which hinges on the collapse of the investigation — reportedly active until the beginning of last year — due to a newly insufficiently staffed and uninterested FBI.

  Given Senator Collins’ voting behavior in the Senate, I have to wonder if President Trump had, or has, a blackmail grip on her through this scandal.

  That’s such a strange thing to write for me, as I remember from the second Nixon  Administration onwards. President Nixon was awful, but most Presidential behavior since then has been good to better. Not with this Administration, though: suggesting a Senator is being blackmail isn’t edgy, it’s just par for the course.

• Kansas may see additional financial backing for the Democratic Senate candidate, Adam Hamilton (D), come flowing in soon. Given the contrast in finances, as Republicans are flush with dollars but not with good candidates, any shift in Democratic dollar flow can be read with some confidence as to where they think weakness lies for either team. That Kansas is at risk should be considered a deep shock to the Republican system, even if their Governor is currently Democratic; it’s nearly a hundred years since a Democrat occupied a Kansas Senate seat. Perhaps pictures of various Kansas Republican politicians, complete with Kansas Canary scrawled across, should be mailed to various national Republican figures.

  Here’s a statement that may turn a few heads in Kansas:
  

  The Kansas Livestock Association, Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association and Texas Cattle Feeders Association are closely monitoring reported U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity affecting agricultural communities in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas.

  Our organizations respect the responsibility of federal agencies to enforce the law. At the same time, cattle producers, feedyards, dairies, livestock markets, processors, and other rural businesses depend on a stable workforce to care for animals, protect food safety, and keep the beef supply chain operating. Sudden workforce disruptions can create immediate animal-welfare, operational, and economic consequences that extend well beyond an individual business. These ICE operations are having a massive chilling effect on the legal, documented, skilled workers that put beef on the table and keep the cattle supply chain moving. Additionally, these types of disruptions will lead to higher beef prices for consumers.

  I don’t know the percentage of the Kansas population engaged in cattle, so it’s hard to estimate its impact, but certainly some voters not in the industry will still regard it as an integral part of the Kansas economy, and resent governmental activities which disrupt it. Senator Marshall may not be at all happy about this. He may have to call for the closure of ICE in order to stay competitive with Adam Hamilton, his rival. But will he?

  Politico has a report on the situation in Kansas.

• Flip flop. Former Rep Mike Rogers (R), Michigan, and GOP Senate candidate, was for Trump’s War before he was against it. Seems convenient – and almost a classic desperate-candidate-blunder, except he words it as end quickly rather than never started. Will Michigan voters agree with me?

  A Michigan Enjoyer poll, conducted by Cygnal (A, Democratic) and Beacon Research (B/C by themselves, but A when working with Shaw & Co, so make of this what you will), shows Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading Mike Rogers (R), 45% – 40%, with a margin of error of ±4 points. That’s a bigish margin of error, but the numbers are plausible.

  Marist Poll (A- with a slight lefty drift) suggests El-Sayed has a bigger lead of 51% – 44%, with a margin of error of ±3.8 points. If El-Sayed can maintain comparable leads through the next few polls from reputable pollsters then it’ll be plausible to retain Michigan in the Democratic column.

• Marist Poll (A- with a slight lefty drift) gives former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) a lead over Senator Husted (R) in Ohio.
  

  Brown (51%) leads Husted (43%) among registered voters statewide in the race for U.S. Senate in Ohio. Independents break for Brown (58% to 33% for Husted). Brown (50%) is +3 points against Husted (47%) in terms of who voters think will actually win the Senate contest. …

  A plurality of Ohio voters (41%) say their congressional vote is mainly a vote against President Trump.

  Once again, independents are key. Epistemic bubbles are anathema.

  USA Today/Suffolk University (A- with a Democratic tilt) gives Brown the lead as well, 46.6% – 44.0%. No margin of error is mentioned, but it seems likely this is a statistical tie. Of particular note in this poll is the estimates given for voter preferences when it comes to the governor’s race, in which voters appear to prefer Amy Action (D) over Vivek Ramaswamy (R), 50.40% – 41.4%. This suggests dissatisfaction with the Republicans in Ohio, even though I understand Governor DeWine (R-OH) to be popular.

DECIDED

I’m adding Montana to the list of States that appear decided, this time for the Republicans. Bodnar (I) and Bankhead (D) will split the liberal vote, giving US Attorney Alme (R) the victory. This means, unless a respectable poll is published suggesting Montana can go either way, I will not be reporting on Montana further.

ABOUT TRAFALGAR

Yes, I do wonder why their margin of error is always ±2.9 points. Forgetting to update a field in their reports? Forgot how to calculate it? Making it up out of whole cloth? Remember, that’ll put holes in their holy cloth.

There. I feel much better now.

The hostas are going through their usual decay cycle.

The sedum is pretty, but this signals the beginning of its end. The moth gets to be a minor key in this opera.

I forget what this is, but it provides a bit of soprano among the altos.

My Arts Editor has done some clear cutting as well, but, as it’s raining at the moment, I’ll omit the spur-of-the-moment picture snap.

Or do we just have criminal activity?

This article is from Aug 3 and covers one of the President’s more obscure grievances – but potentially most damaging.

Capital One closed hundreds of Trump Organization accounts in 2021 “for anti-money laundering reasons,” the bank disclosed for the first time in a court filing Friday [I believe that would be 31 July 2026] night.

President Donald Trump has maintained that his businesses were “debanked” for political reasons, and the Trump Organization sued Capital One in Florida federal court last year, claiming “considerable financial harm” from the loss of the accounts.

The latest filing from Capital One in the case before the United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida reiterates the lender’s denial of any political motivation, stating that “the closures were the result of months of analysis” by a team “with decades of law enforcement experience.” [CNN/Business]

Prior to and throughout this second term, not even halfway finished, we’ve seen the President and his allies extract money from his supporters in a number of ways, from memecoins to NFTs to tchotchkes, selling shares in a public company that has little apparent worth, government slush funds, selling pardons to the desperate, using pardons to bind the threatened in loyalty, sold influence on policy positions ranging from foreign relations to cryptocurrency, and I’m sure I’ve forgotten half a dozen more.

So if a chance to score big from money laundering came along, is it hard to see him taking it?

And then getting caught? Remember, this guy may be clever, but he’s not smart.

I’m wondering why the Democrats haven’t used this hammer to continue to chip away at Trump’s base. While there are many devoted fans, even the most devoted can become exhausted through continued news. Eventually, the dead guy on Fifth Avenue becomes the reason to hang the shooter, not celebrate him.

Are the Democrats simply waiting for a vulnerable moment to catch him unawares?

Kleptoproteinism:

The new study, published in Scientific Reports, stated that the case of the golden sweeper is one of the clearest examples of a rare phenomenon known as kleptoproteinism. The term comes from “klepto,” meaning to steal, and refers to organisms that take proteins from other species and use them for their own benefit. It is part of a broader phenomenon called kleptobiology. [Asian Scientist]

Noted in “This Glowing Fish Steals Bioluminescence Instead of Making Its Own Light,” Stephanie Edwards, Discover Magazine:

This finding is the clearest evidence yet of a rare biological strategy called “kleptoproteinism,” and it could reshape how scientists think about how life works at the genetic level.

Yep, that paragraph references the same fish referenced in the definition, if one digests paragraphs I didn’t quote. But the latter magazine’s article is then followed by this:

Instead of producing its own light-generating enzyme — known as luciferase — the fish acquires it directly from its prey. Specifically, it feeds on tiny bioluminescent crustaceans called ostracods or “sea fireflies,” and repurposes their glowing proteins for its own use.

The klepto prefix, meaning stealing : theft [Merriam-Webster], usually implies the victim does not suffer fatal consequences, although the theft of, say, a breathing mask could have fatal results. But the act of the single example known is a byproduct of feeding.

I’d rather see a different term constructed.

It’s been nearly three weeks since I last looked at Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), and, just comparing prices it seems things haven’t changed, it’s worth noting that, according to the chart, most of that time was actually spent down. Here’s the one month chart.

What of their “crpytocurrency treasury?” I do not know if they’ve actually sold Bitcoin out of their treasury, but, if so, their timing may have been unfortunate, as Bitcoin investors continue to exhibit cautious optimism, paying a price of $84K/coin to $85K/coin. Three weeks ago it wasn’t quite $80/coin; prior to that, it was puttering about the $62K/coin mark.

And the virtual emblem of DJT, $TRUMP? Investors, or manipulators, are struggling to keep $TRUMP’s price up, but early buyers of $TRUMP – I cannot bring myself to write investors in this context – continue to be way, way down, even if it’s true that maybe a month or so ago $TRUMP was at only $1.40/coin. Real investors are well aware memecoins like $TRUMP are nothing more than novelties with little intrinsic reason to own them; they are badges of pride for the loyal.

There’s no apparent news for the company, at least to my lazy self, but this company is dependent on the fortunes of President Trump, and those are not promising. Most political pundits are expecting the Republican Party to take the blame for economic and foreign relations failures from voters, a sentiment shared by the President himself, apparently.

The White House has launched another taxpayer-funded television ad before the midterms, this time featuring imagery of President Donald Trump walking down a hall as audio plays of him saying “this is the final battle.”

“We will cast out the communists, Marxists, and fascists. We will throw off the sick political class that hates our country. We will rout the fake news media, and we will liberate America from these villains once and for all,” Trump says in the ad, echoing comments he made during a Veterans Day speech in 2023. [CNN/Politics]

In an environment in which all the polls regarding the President, and most of elected members of Congress, are coming back negative, and a President whose greatest successes were a television show and known to love drama, these doomsday ads suggest he realizes he’ll be losing control of Congress in January. This drama/ad is a last cry for help from the divine.

I expect the media will have tiz-fit over it for a couple of days, and then they’ll move on as the imminent elections come to the fore once again.

But it doesn’t bode well for DJT prices.

I think this Fox clip illustrates the limitations of the Republican Party these days:

RNC Chair Joe Gruters: "This is not your grandparents' Democrat Party. They want to get rid of Thanksgiving. They want to get rid of July 4."

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2026-09-22T12:26:48.836Z

It’s the relentless hammering of the theme that the Democratic Party hates America. I’ve seen it here and from Erick Erickson and a few other conservative pundits – and I don’t go out hunting it.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have, until recently, been supporting President Trump and basically ignoring their responsibility to bring their collective wisdom to the governance and foreign relations question.

Yeah, no snorting in the back of the room.

To return to the observation, the refusal of the Republicans to fulfill the responsibilities of being American legislators amounts to a real betrayal and hatred of America. Depend on Donald “The Amateur” Trump to take care of everything?

I’m sorry, Donald is busy designing ballrooms and pursuing fallacious economic theories.

Here’s the thing, though: This is the same warmed-over pablum from twenty, thirty years ago. That’s all this guy can do – put on a suit and tie and yell that the Democrats hate America.

Old, angry yelling because his Party is incompetent at everything it turns its attention to. And, as RNC Chairman, he bears a great deal of responsibility.

Think about it.

Viceroy:

When a country is ruled by a monarch — a king or queen — and controls colonies or provinces, the monarch can’t govern all those remote areas personally. That’s where a viceroy comes in. The king or queen appoints a representative to rule over the colony or province. This viceroy is the most powerful person in this region, kind of like a king or president. The difference is that the viceroy has to answer to the monarch, his boss back in the mother country. [Vocabulary.com]

A trifle informal. I suppose I should have picked a more authoritative definition. Noted in “Trump isn’t doing himself any favors by giving Rubio too many jobs,” Steve Benen, Maddowblog:

Trump has tasked Rubio with serving as the acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, the acting archivist for the National Archives and the chair of the administration’s World Expo 2035 preparations. The New York Times published a striking report in July noting that Rubio is also, for all intents and purposes, “running” Venezuela, serving as the country’s “de facto viceroy.”

And, on this rainy day, have a picture.

“I heard something,” she said. “It’s a monster. There’s always monsters when you’re around, Espen.”
“Then why did you invite me to your party?”
She shrugged. “What can I say? A good monster enlivens a party.”
“Now that’s just disrespectful.” He hesitated. “Maybe the next one will eat you.”
“I doubt it. I taste like …”
But Espen never heard her self-evaluation of taste. He personally didn’t care for her taste in clothing, anyways.

The Ash Lad: In Search of the Golden Castle (2019; in Norwegian, Askeladden – i Soria Moria slott ) is the sequel to The Ash Lad: In the Hall of the Mountain King (2017), continuing the adventures of the Ash Lad, Espen, his two brothers, and Princess Kristin. In this episode, Kristin’s parents, the King and Queen of Norway, end up dead; the brothers, Per and Pal, end up in a dungeon, where they ambitiously attempt multiple escapes, but fail and end up threatened by an unfortunate fate; and Espen and Kristin go off in search of a cure for the dead Queen and King.

Unfortunately, this script could have a used a few more drafts. As just one example of a plot hole, at one point Espen and Kristin stumble into the ruins of a castle and discover several shriveled bodies. One happens to be holding a desiccated ball, which Espen grabs. He utters no words, there’s been no hints, at least that I remember, that a desiccated ball might come in handy, nothing.

So when it is useful, there’s a definite jolt. Did he know? Is this some of Espen’s knowledge of old fairy tales, which is hardly mentioned in …Castle but was prominent in …King? It felt like a deceitful deux ex machina, not an example of Espen’s utility and wisdom.

This leads me to think that stories are paeans to causality. Random chaos makes for dull story telling, because it teaches chaos as a survival mechanism; however, chaos is precisely not that, and most people know that. Stories featuring random chaos fall into obscurity, and deservedly so. I can remember only one story featuring random chaos, and I don’t recall the title. The author was pulp era standout Jack Vance. Even he could not make it a true classic; it was more of a toss-off experiment. (It’s probably in my library upstairs, but I’m too lazy or in a hurry to go find it.)

Chaos can be made palatable with humor, and there’s certainly some humor here. But between characters who are little more than cardboard and do precisely what is expected of them, and a lack of imagination on the part of the storytellers, this effort is probably not worth your time.

Long-term readers may remember the suit filed against J. Ann Selzer, head of a now-defunct pollster, and the Des Moines Register, by President Trump after the 2024 election. It was dismissed, but apparently reopened or refiled. WaPo now reports:

An Iowa district court has dismissed a lawsuit by President Donald Trump against pollster J. Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register, saying the Iowa poll and the newspaper’s reporting were fully protected political speech. …

In a decision Wednesday, Judge Scott J. Beattie wrote that election polling is protected by the First Amendment “because it involves a conversation between a pollster and a voter and because the poll itself is speech.” Beattie dismissed the case with prejudice, which means Trump cannot bring the same claim to court again.

I think that’ll be the end of that. I must say the judiciary, with the exception of a beholden conservative wing of SCOTUS, has come through in the era of Trump.

Sidechain:

A sidechain is a designation for a blockchain ledger that runs in parallel to a primary blockchain. Entries from the primary blockchain (where said entries typically represent digital assets) can be linked to and from the sidechain; this allows the sidechain to otherwise operate independently of the primary blockchain (e.g., by using an alternate means of record keeping, alternate consensus algorithm, etc.). [Wikipedia]

Noted in “4,000 BTC (~$320 million) stolen from Liquid Network by claimed whitehats, 90% returned,” Molly White (no relation), Web3 is Going Just Great:

An unauthorized withdrawal of 3,998.5 BTC (~$320 million) from the Liquid Network, a bitcoin sidechain, prompted a network halt. By disabling nodes that bridge between Liquid and the bitcoin mainchain, attackers are limited in their ability to cash out via bridge. Blockstream, the developers of Liquid Network, also said they had contacted exchanges to ask them to pause LBTC deposits and withdrawals, cutting off another avenue.

Funny, I haven’t see the term Web3 anywhere in years.

POLLS, POLLS, POLLSTER RATINGS!

Turns out the legendary Nate Silver, now running Silver Bulletin, has updated pollster ratings, and they appear to be free of a paywall. Silver is using an alphabetic rating system, and, for pollsters where there’s a paucity of data, the range the pollster falls into is indicated as, for example, A/B. See this link for the actual ratings and Silver’s explanation. I’ll try to reference them in the future, along with an indication of which way a pollster leans, in parentheses. Not all pollsters are rated, as polls without a comparative reality are difficult to completely evaluate.

And a big thank you to Mr. Silver.

IT’S A STAMPEDE!

It has to be, CNN says so!

The GOP stampede away from Trump is growing – including in pretty red districts

Which illustrates the mistake of using pretty in this context. And reinforces the point running through these Campaign Updates for months now: The Mendacity Machine, aka President Trump, is a burden, not a positive, in most locales. There are a few districts where a candidate’s loyalty to Trump and/or MAGA is important; but most no longer value it, and, in fact, it’s an inverse correlation. Not a neutral factor, but a disaster for such a candidate.

Or, as old blogger Paul Waldman comments, It’s hard to think of many GOP politicians whose careers have been built more on their devotion to Trump. The fact that [Byron] Donalds [GOP nominee for Florida Governor] is backing away from him is incredibe. [Yes, that’s a sic.]

Prices continue to climb as well. This article from the Fox 11 News (Green Bay, Wisconsin) web site illustrates an ongoing problem for the President and his adherents:

Nationally, the average cost for diesel is $6.39 per gallon.

A year ago, the national average for diesel was $2.69 cheaper.

This comes as the war in Iran disrupts the world’s flow of fuel.

Most consumer goods in the United States rely on being transported with diesel-powered trucks.

As diesel prices continue to soar, the cost of your groceries will too.

Even such prices for such basic, necessary services as an oil change for your vehicle has jumped substantially, and, meanwhile, the President is erratically trying to act like a dictator with such directives as banning CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from his press conferences.

A judge has since ordered their passes be reinstated.

BUT A LITTLE SECRET FOR Y’ALL

The role I try to fulfill when writing this blog, besides being a vent hood for the frustrations and interests of my days, is to see the events of the day, well, as I am: a working dude, not yet retired, with no formal training, nor experience, in government and politics, but a generally interested observer who has watched and written about politics and other topics for more than forty years. For those readers shaking their heads in disbelief, social media has reportedly been around since the early or mid 1970s; I became aware and involved around 1984.

Back on point, I’m not a news reporter; I’m a guy who tries to bring an unfamiliar interpretation to topics.

Now I’m having some troubles. I’ve written about President Trump and the Republican Party for years, and now most other writers, with more knowledge and more time than I, have become more aware of the toxicity of the Republican Party, and the mental illness that afflicts the President. It gets harder and harder to find something insightful, that I haven’t seen a dozen time in web search, to say after all these years.

Vent, vent, vent. Andrew Sullivan decided to move on to other topics. Post mid-terms, I’m not sure what I’ll be doing. Vlogger Belle, who runs several YouTube channels for political commentary, suggests we may all be running for our lives. What fun! I wrote about that earlier today.

RIDING A NEW HORSE

Stumpy, the old horse cum dachsund, is here.

• In Texas The Trafalgar Group (rated B, with a conservative lean) gives Senate candidate James Talarico (D) a 46.4% – 45.2% lead over rival Ken Paxton (R). This poll has a margin of error of ±2.9 points. Most other pollsters give Talarico a larger lead.

  However, unknown pollster Texas Southern University does agree, estimating Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46% support. Their voters claim to know both candidates for voting purposes, by and large, so polls in Texas may not change much as we approach Election Day.

  But Marist Poll (A-, slight lean Democratic) does not agree with the first two pollsters:

  Talarico (50%) edges Paxton (44%) among registered voters statewide in the contest for U.S. Senate in Texas. Talarico receives majority support among independents (55%) Regardless of whom they support, 52% of voters overall think Paxton will win the Senate race.

  My bold. A good bet when it comes to forecast meteorology is that tomorrow will be like yesterday, and I think voters are using the same methodology for voting results.

  And Marist is also estimating the governor’s race to be a dead heat, another shocker in this archetypal Republican state.

  But the news for candidate Paxton may be considerably worse than that:

  Former President George W. Bush and Sen. John Cornyn gathered Republican donors for a fundraiser Monday night in support of many of the party’s major Senate candidates, excluding Texas GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton, sources familiar with the event confirmed to ABC News. [ABC News]

  The report notes that Michael Whatley (R) of North Carolina and Rep Collins (R) of Georgia were also excluded. Whether you’re perceived as a probable failure or an outcast from the Party, that certainly makes the job of winning harder. Especially if you think that he who has the most money, wins.

  The love of money is the root of all evil. 1 Timothy 6:10. As an agnostic, I hardly ever quote the Bible.

• In Iowa The Trafalgar Group (B, with a conservative lean) gives Senate candidate Rep Hinson (R) a 44% – 42.1% lead over Josh Turek. This poll has a margin of error of ±2.9 points, much like their poll of Texas, which strikes me as odd. This is in contrast to other polls giving Turek a lead.

  And here comes one now: Marist Poll estimates Turek as having a substantial lead of 50% – 42%, with a margin of error of a largish ±4.4 points. Turek’s lead is particularly interesting in view of this:

  The partisan breakdown for this survey among registered voters is 29% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 32% independent.

  Some Republicans are defecting, as is made explicit: 98% of Democrats, 13% of Republicans, and 49% of independents are voting for Turek. In that last category, only 36% of independents are voting for Hinson, and 14% is the total for Other and Undecided/Refused.

  I’m not drawing any conclusions without more polls, but it appears Elon Musk may have:

  Some largesse from Musk’s America PAC is already trickling into Iowa to help Republican Ashley Hinson hold a GOP Senate seat in a spirited contest against Democrat Josh Turek.

  It’s heartwarming to see a trillionaire help a mere millionaire who is down on her luck. In 2024, Musk spent $290 million to help Donald Trump and Republican candidates. A mere rounding error in Muskatopia.

  Musk, it has been reported, wants to change the subject in these Senate races from rising consumer prices, expensive gas and inflation to transgender issues. Clearly, this is exactly what Americans want. [Todd Dorman, The Gazette]

  Or is it panic? Money helps achieve a lot of goals, but elections can be a notable exception.

  Iowa’s open Senate seat would appear to be up for grabs, even if the Marist Poll correspondents think Hinson will win by a 59% – 37% margin.

• Take a deep breath and retrieve that shaker of salt: South Dakota Senate candidate Brian Bengs (I) has a sponsored poll from Public Policy Polling (B+, with a slight lean leftward), claiming he’s only down three points. Good for him, if true. But sponsored polls are always a red flag.
• I don’t know what’s going to happen in Nebraska, but this article can’t be good for incumbent Senator and Trump ally Senator Ricketts (R):
  

  According to the [Nebraska Farm] Bureau, the biggest spike they’ve seen is in the cost of fuel and fertilizer. Abygail Petersen, an economist and analyst with the Nebraska Farm Bureau, said diesel prices alone raise costs by nearly 45%.

  Petersen said this means an estimated $759 million loss for corn and a $266 million for soy beans. [KLKN-TV]

  That’s a harsh punishment for loyalty to President Trump, and may bring about a protest no-vote.

• In Ohio former and perhaps future Senator Sherrod Brown (D) has acquired a new adversary: the cryptocurrency industry:
  

  A super PAC funded by the cryptocurrency industry is preparing to spend at least $30 million in the Ohio Senate race to try to block Democrat Sherrod Brown from returning to Washington, the group’s most aggressive move of the 2026 midterm cycle to date.

  The move by Fairshake, a super PAC group bankrolled by a trio of leading crypto companies, comes just days after Democrats voted down an industry-backed digital asset bill on the Senate floor. [Politico]

  Long-term readers know I don’t have much use for the cryptocurrency industry, which sucks down energy and increases CO₂ emissions for software of minimal unique, non-critical utility. In fact, it seems to be little more than a grifter-wonderland. See [no relation] Molly White’s blog.

  Remember, marketing dollars stop influencing votes once the contest reaches the margins. Just for that cherry on top, the cryptocurrency industry associating themselves with the Republicans may backfire disastrously as well.

  In other news, Quantus Insights (B/C, leans Republican) thinks Senator Husted (R) has caught up with former Senator Brown (D), each with 45%. Seems unlikely.

• Florida’s Senator Moody (R) is enjoying a 49% – 42% lead over Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon (D), according to the estimates of InsiderAdvantage (B+ with a Democratic lean). This is in contrast to the St. Pete Polls report of the last Florida Campaign Update, showing Moody and Nixon virtually even, but it’s important to realize St. Pete Polls has a Silver Bulletin rating of C+, with a slight lean to the Democrats. That is not promising and, if I’d known they had that low a rating, I would have omitted  that result.

  Stetson University (B/C, which is fairly awful)  gives Senator Moody a 51% – 40% lead.

  I think Florida, between an ill-organized Democratic support structure and an elderly, conservative citizenry, is likely to retain Senator Moody sans a black swan event that leaves Senator Moody covered in mud. For another, more upbeat, view, here’s Sarah Rumpf on Mediaite.

• Michigan news has been atypically quiet, but Suffolk University (A- with a Democratic lean) has an estimate of an El-Sayed lead of 46.8% – 39.6%, no margin of error provided, over former Rep Mike Rogers. That’s a bit of an outlier, but Suffolk does appear to have a good history. Perhaps Rogers’ refusal to debate, as noted in the last Michigan Campaign Update, has had a negative impact.

  Today several more polls have appeared, just prior to publication of this Campaign Update. A-rated Siena College is weighing in:

  Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 49% – Mike Rogers (R) 44%

  Rasmussen Report (B+, Republican lean) claims El-Sayed leads by a 47% – 44% margin with a margin of error of ±3 points, and co/efficient (B, with a heavy Republican lean) has El-Sayed and Rogers tied at 45% with a margin of error of ±3.36 points, which is at odds with Suffolk. Given co/efficient’s predilections, my guess is that El-Sayed holds a small lead.

• According to Alaska Survey Research (A/B, strong lean to the Democrats), in Alaska former Rep Mary Peltola (D) leads incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R) 48.4% – 43.8% with a margin of error of ±3 points, and Peltola wins in the second round of this ranked choice voting affair.

  If you want to see Peltola’s publicity still, presumably provided by the campaign, follow the pollster link. It’s better than most.

• Conservative groups pulling ads from North Carolina suggests the abandonment of the Whatley salient. As I agree, I’ll be lessening incidental research into the Senate race in North Carolina and assume we’ll have a Senator Cooper (D) next January.

  But since I’m here, mediocre pollster Quantus Insights (B/C, with a heavy Republican lean) gives Cooper a 48.4% – 43.3% lead, or 5.1 points, which make it a Republican-leaning outlier. They note that this election turns on independents.

  High Point University (B/C, no lean) gives Cooper a 50% – 42% lead, and YouGov (B, with a heavy Democratic bias) gives Cooper a 52% – 41% lead.

• In Georgia YouGov (B, leans Democratic) is estimating this race as Ossoff leading Rep Collins (R), 51% – 41%.
• Unknown pollster Advanced Targeting Research estimates the Idaho Senate race to be an unbelievable substantial lead for Todd Achilles (I) over incumbent Senator Risch (R), 45.5% – 39.4%, with Matt Loesby (L) getting 4.5%. Like I said, unbelievable. Waiter, can we get a known, excellent pollster to prepare our food?
• In Maine, hints of corruption in Senator Collins’ (R) campaign are being mooted about:
  

  For the first time in her two-decade Senate career, the Republican lawmaker from Maine was in danger of losing her seat. President Donald Trump’s dismal approval ratings were dragging her down in the polls, and she was falling behind her likely 2020 Democratic challenger in fundraising.

  Scott Reed, head of the Collins super PAC, was on a mission to close that gap. Reed was meeting that day with three executives from a Hawaiian defense contractor, Navatek. A year earlier, Collins had helped their company land a multimillion-dollar Navy research contract in Maine. Now, seated at a coffee shop not far from the U.S. Capitol, Reed asked them for a $500,000 donation. [ProPublica]

  I’ve seen other news outlets with similar reports, although they may all be sourcing from this report. Her rival, Troy Jackson (D), will be pushing this hard I’m sure.

  UMass-Lowell (A-, with a substantial Democratic lean) rates this race at 48% – 43% for Troy Jackson (D). However, their margin of error of ±4.66 points is quite large.

  But A-rated Siena College has this race at:

  Maine: Susan Collins (R) 49% – Troy Jackson (D) 46%

  No margin of error provided, although Maine Public Radio reports this result falls within the margin of error.

  The University of New Hampshire (B- and a heavy Democratic lean) puts them in a statistical tie at Jackson 51%, Senator Collins 49%.

• Siena College (A) estimates that Rep Pappas (D) is leading in New Hampshire’s Senate race:
  

  New Hampshire: Chris Pappas (D) 50% – John Sununu 45%

  This roughly correlates with the poll from InsiderAdvantage (B+) in the last Campaign Update for New Hampshire suggesting Pappas had an 8 point lead.

  The University of New Hampshire (B-) gives Pappas a 50% share of the vote and Sununu 42%.

• Louisiana’s Jamie Davis (D) may be challenging Senator Cassidy’s assertion that Davis’ rival and presumptive future winner of the Louisiana Senate seat, for which the Senator was successfully primaried, Republican Rep Julia Letlow, may not be so … presumptive? Davis sponsored a poll, which is a bit of a red flag, but Hart Research Associates (A-, Democratic lean) is well-rated, so this may indeed be legit.
  

  Louisiana’s Democratic Party released a new U.S. Senate poll Sept. 24 that showed Democrat Jamie Davis trailing Republican Congresswoman Julia Letlow by 4%, which party officials believe puts the underdog Davis within striking distance. …

  Hart Research Associates conducted the survey Sept. 17–19, 2026, for the Davis campaign. It surveyed 500 likely voters with a 4.5% margin of error. [Shreveport Times]

  This is a consequence of all the blunders made by a Party that didn’t screen and train its candidates, and tried to make a virtue of this sin. Louisiana may be second only to Alabama in allegiance to the Republican Party. What’s next? A loss in Alabama? They’re already threatening to elect Senator Tuberville (R) to the governor’s mansion, so that seems unlikely, although how Alabamans would go about removing that particularly blot from their honor really escapes me.

  All luck to Mr. Davis.

• Unknown pollster Wedgewood Polls gives Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) a 50% – 48% lead over incumbent Senator Marshall (R) in Kansas., within the margin of error of ±4.4 points, so it’s a tie. That’s congruent with Emerson College’s poll in the last Campaign Update covering Kansas.
• And in what may be the most trivial news of the Senate campaigns, Minnesota’s GOP Senate candidate Michelle Tafoya has been caught in a silly lie – or she’s a bit absent-minded.
  

  Michele Tafoya, the Republican Senate nominee in Minnesota, recently denied ever saying she was embarrassed to be from the state she wants to represent, but a digital deep-dive review by CNN’s KFile found she had done just that.

  In a local radio interview earlier this month, the former NFL sideline reporter was asked whether Minnesota embarrassed her, and she insisted that wasn’t true. “If I were embarrassed to be from Minnesota, would I be running for the United States Senate to represent Minnesota?” Tafoya said. “I have never said that.”

  But in a since-deleted March 2023 post uncovered by the KFile team, Tafoya wrote: “I’m embarrassed to say I live in Minnesota. This state has gone so far left it’s amazing any of the snow still sticks.” [Raw Story]

  I doubt that’ll damage her campaign.

  But if I may make a serious suggestion, Mz Tafoya, get out of the Republican Party. Right now. That’s a change that might help you win an exceedingly close race.

FIN? NO FIN?

Here’s the list of States hosting Senate races that I think are decided and I shan’t cover any longer because it’s a tidal wave of results. You think the above was tiring to read? I had to write it. Most of it by hand, barring the occasional quote. Dispensing with these States will ease composition.

Alabama (R), Delaware (D), Florida (R), Georgia (D), Illinois (D), Massachusetts (D), New Jersey (D), New Mexico (D), North Carolina (D), Oklahoma (R), Oregon (D), Rhode Island (D), Tennessee (R), Virginia (D), West Virginia (R), and Wyoming (R). Naturally, a black swan sighting will result in removal from this list.

Marry me!
Maybe.
You can smoke the pipe –
Ok.

A Stranger In Town (1943) is a hidden identity film, but only from the other characters in the story. A duck-hunter arrives in a small town, looking to relax and take some ducks for dinners. He finds a town government stricken with corruption, and opposed by a lawyer sans confidence. The balance of the story is how to inject confidence into the lawyer and put a metaphorical banana peel into said government.

It has its moments, although it’s too bad the audience is in on the secret. It’s well-acted and a bit of fun; if you’re looking to see something from the era of World War II, you could do worse. No doubt a film from the movie assembly line, don’t let that deter you; Casablanca (1942) was also B-list. Not that A Stranger In Town is a Casablanca; but it does have its points of interest.

And some giggling.

… would be, oh, impossible?

Belle of the Ranch has a logical and fairly scary view of the future. This video describes this view, informed by the military training some of her team has:

They forgot one weapon, though, and that would be EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse) weapons. These disable or destroy unshielded computers; the shields would probably be made of lead. How thick of shielding?

I’m not sure. Heavy enough to inhibit drones? Maybe. And the stronger the EMP, the thicker the required shielding.

EMPs, like nuclear weapons, are indiscriminate, although they kill people only through collateral effects, at least at relatively low strengths. So I understand, at least. This means we may have to decide: computers and unending wars, or back to the ’50s, not only for invaders, but for us, too.

Funny, we have a car show with that exact name in our neighborhood.

The ever delicately nuanced Randy Rainbow:

I just learned an old friend and former colleague, Don Lee, passed away sometime in the last couple of days. A group of us would get together on an annual or semi-annual basis, and Don often showed up.

RIP, Don. I’ll miss you.

A new Reuter/Ipsos poll is out:

President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell to 32% – the lowest ⁠of ⁠his political career – as his fellow Republicans soured on his ⁠handling of the cost of living amid the unpopular Iran war, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

The poll, completed on Sunday, ​was conducted over a four-day period that saw Trump throw three major news organizations out of the White House and muse that Washington’s iconic Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts — named after slain ‌President John F. Kennedy — could be torn down if ‌Trump’s own name could not be added to it.

It found voters leaning away from supporting Trump’s fellow Republicans in the November 3 midterm elections that will determine control of Congress for ⁠the next two ⁠years. [Reuters]

The midterms will be a calamity for the Republicans if this continues and even deepens, and that may happen. The President appears to be unwilling, or unable, to move his focus to critical topics such as inflation, Trump’s War, foreign relations, etc.

Instead, he works on renovation of D.C. I think there’s two reasons for this.

First, folks under immense pressure often revert to doing what they think they do well. A former boss of mine has a story about the time one of my employers began to collapse. When the C-suite (CEO, etc) were kicked out, he and another fellow, whose primary experience was in testing, were moved up to develop a new product. The pressure was immense, and my former boss later reported that the other guy was spending all of his time … writing up test specs.

President Trump is certainly under a lot of pressure.

Second, it’s how Trump leaves his mark. There is little surprise here; the story of Trump proclaiming at Mt Vernon, George Washington’s plantation, that Washington blundered by not putting his name on everything, is well known. Trump wants fame and glory, and it’s become clear he’ll be getting notoriety and ingloriousness.

Trump seems to deal with disaster by threatening to destroy the world and then getting back to his branding work. As Belle of the Ranch noted this morning, he threatened to absolutely destroy Iran if they won’t make a deal.

Again.

But will he? No.

Oh, he might bang the table a little bit, but there’s a collection of reasons not to.

1. Munitions. Munitions are running low.
2. National opinion. Blow up Iran and his job approval rating will drop below 20%, I estimate. It’ll be another blow to his narcissism.
3. World opinion. As much as Iran is considered evil, wise world leaders wanted to see it choked until its leaders were chased out rather than blown up. The reason is long-cited domino effect: once someone blows someone else up for whatever reason, even a plausible reason, then it becomes normalized. Foreign relations are hard enough without an opposing leader having a bad day and deciding to assuage it with a minor war.
4. If you fail again, what do you do? There’s no good answer except resignation, and then he’d be a loser, a label he’s famously historically avoided.

Right wing pundit Erick Erickson will be disappointed that we’re not trying to eliminate Iranian leadership, but the JCPOA had the Iranian problem under control, and it was Trump who trashed it and started Trump’s War.

So we’re seeing the break between Trump, his backing billionaires, and his base of support growing larger and larger. Will it shatter before or after the midterms?

Pristine stars:

It is a common theory that after the Big Bang, the universe was composed of hot, soupy particles that eventually expanded and cooled. During this time, patches of neutral hydrogen gas formed. Some of these patches grew heavy and dense, eventually causing the material to collapse in on itself over hundreds of millions of years due to the gases’ gravity. These dense patches would go on to form the first stars, composed of pristine hydrogen and helium, according to the study. [“Most Pristine Star May Have Been Spotted 80,000 Light-Years From Earth,” Monica Cull, Discover Magazine (paywall)]

Hadn’t ever heard of pristine star before. Why not earliest or oldest? Probably because age is inferred, but chemical makeup can be measured directly.

Want to get Texas off of fossil fuels?

157 degree turf temps in NFL game melt cleats and force Eagles coach to take IV

That’s the headline. Texas without football .. isn’t Texas any more.

This won’t make Donald J. happy:

This is in response to CNN, as well as non-television outlets, being banned from White House press conferences. MS NOW, another banned outlet, reports the television outlets are suspending coverage of the President.

For a pathological narcissist, accustomed to attention, even if not adoring, losing all the television networks from press conferences will be, on the surface, aggravating, and just below the surface will come the whisper that Donald J. Trump is no longer significant, that people won’t turn to him and consider his opinion important.

Thank goodness.

I expect we’ll be hearing more hooting and hollering from a President who desperately wants adoration, and isn’t getting it.

News Editor Troy Farah of salon brings up an important point, off the cuff:

Yet some people still aren’t convinced he’s really back, or at least not in any meaningful sense. A 10-second video of the press yelling at McConnell to speak or give a thumbs up — with seemingly zero response from the senator — has gone viral. Even Trump acolyte Laura Loomer shared it, saying “Mitch is brain dead. You can’t look at his face and say he’s not a vegetable. He’s not even responding to cognition tests. It’s like wheeling a corpse around. Worse than what the Democrats did with Joe Biden to be honest. He looks incapacitated.” [salon]

Reading between the lines, this is speculation concerning whether or not our government is trustable, and that’s a problem. Of course, pundits like myself had read the news reports on the mendacity of Donald J. Trump early in his first term and begun the chorus of He’s lying!, loud and clear.

But the audience didn’t hear it. Let’s clarify the problem: How many of us know one or more liars who have both experience with acting and a certain charisma?

Not many of us, I’d wager.

The American public, the said audience, didn’t hear what they didn’t want to hear; and the Democrats miserably ran around and let their own pack of wannabe autocrats take at least some control of the Party and offer candidates and candidate teams who it turned out were lying and trying to smile their way through autocratic procedures.

And the Republicans continued to crumble and managed to elect a number of smaller liars and predators; some, like Santos and Gonzales, were kicked out, and, yes, let’s add Democratic leader Eric Swalwell to that list.

So now we have to slog our way through articles such as the above: Is McConnell brain-dead, body-doubled, kidnapped by Democrats, sucked into the sky by aliens? Now we have to deal with conspiracy theories spewing from the mouths of those who have found it profitable to do so. From Alex Jones of InfoWars to Lara Loomer to Troy Farah to, just guessing now, Tucker Carlson and Glenn Beck to your favorite Democratic Socialist who’s hungry for power, it’ll be conspiracy theory time.

How many times will I have to see a news report one some Trump supporter who’s spewing something about election cheating? And are they in earnest, in the face of the lack of evidence of same, or are they casting a line out, hoping power will come to them? That’s what this is often about.

Yes, dear reader, if you’re American then ready yourself for the deluge of conspiracy theories. For quite a while a number of people have been convincing themselves that those in power must be lying, whether it be about vaccines or their bodies becoming magnetic or chemtrails or, hell, space flight or chupacabras. Will you believe?

Or can we get back to the business of soberly living life?

Gibbous:

gibbous (comparative more gibbous, superlative most gibbous)

1. Curved or bulged outward.
2. (astronomy, of a celestial body) Having more than half (but not the whole) of its disc illuminated.

   Coordinate term: crescent

3. Humpbacked.

[Wiktionary]

Odd that I looked at gibbous and didn’t know the definition; it’s always been one of those words that I’d look up later. Noted in “A NEW CRATER ON THE MOON,” Spaceweather.com:

Now is a good time to look. The Moon is a [sic?] waxing gibbous in the evening sky and the crater stays lit until Sept. 27th. Don’t expect to resolve the crater, it’s quite small, but its fresh ejecta is the brightest thing for miles, so it registers as a high-contrast speck against the dark mare.

If mare seems nonsensical in this context to my reader, here’s an explanation of lunar mare, which is, briefly, a basaltic plain on the Moon formed by by lava flowing into an impact basin. And here’s an illustrative photo from here.

You can check out the new crater by following the Spaceweather link, above.

Out for an evening perambulation, are we? Mind the rabid raccoons.

The Toxic Avenger (2023) tells the semi-cliche story of the evil businessman whose actions are not community-oriented, but merely self-oriented. The toxic byproduct he produces turns a random citizen of the city into a monster, like magnified versions of the businessman’s henchmen, rock band, and family. Losing his family to horror, the man must take a horrible revenge on the businessman.

It’s, in some ways, very ancient Greek, yet very giggly.

The style reminds me a bit of The Suicide Squad (2021) in its amiable acceptance of blatantly mutant people, working out the consequences and how to connect them to human evil. If you liked that, you might like this.

Or if you’re an Elijah Wood completist.

THE PREDICTED PANIC

As GOP Members of Congress discover Trump’s interests are not their interests, rumblings of the herd worried about harrying hunters is beginning to sound…

Republican senators are privately complaining their party isn’t advancing legislation that helps ordinary voters ahead of the crucial midterm elections, according to a new report. …

One unnamed GOP senator on the ballot accused the White House of “putting a noose around all of our necks” by escalating its trade war with Canada so close to the election, the outlet said Wednesday. …

Trump’s trade war is drawing backlash from other Republicans who fear voters will blame them for the economic pain, particularly in border and farming states. [Raw Story via MSN]

President Trump’s need to prove that he’s dominant is not compatible with an electorate that has a voice to use, ears to hear, and minds to learn. No doubt Trump thinks he can lie his way out of anything, but Americans have had a lot of time to observe, analyze, and switch sides.

Something Democrats should note with humility.

And the Republicans may be acting on these observations of Trump:

• One place you won’t find President Trump? Starring in Republican ads [CNN, paywall]
• Trump implores GOP to keep him at the center of midterm campaigns, but Democrats are featuring him more [CNN, paywall]

SIENA SPEAKS!

The latest poll from Siena College and The New York Times has the following foreboding-for-Republicans conclusions:

• By 51-43% Likely Voters Favor the Democratic Candidate for Congress in their District
• Voters Trust Democrats Over Republicans on Healthcare (60-36%), Immigration (52-45%), and the Cost of Living (51-43%)

Speaks for itself, doesn’t it? Unless the polling is broken, which has been a problem over the last decade. Still, given the dismaying likelihood of mendacity from politicians these days, especially among Republicans, this poll is not implausible. And it fits right in with the Republican panic.

DOWN TO THE PAVERS

Take The Yellow Brick Road, To The Valley Of The Jolly Green Giant….

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, which had a respectable 2.6/3 in FiveThirtyEight days, is giving Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico (D) a 46% – 43% lead over Texas AG and Republican nominee Ken Paxton (R). The poll has a ±4.0 points for margin of error, so statistically this is a tie.

  Looking at the political inclination details, 88% of the Republicans surveyed are voting for Paxton, while 94% of Democrats are voting for Talarico, suggesting a small but significant enthusiasm gap. Geographically, central Texas is leaning Talarico, while West and East Texas lean more toward Paxton.

  Top-rated Siena College gives Talarico a 49% – 43% lead, and among Hispanics, the great Republican hope, the lead is 62% – 31%. That should be encouraging for the left side of the spectrum as well as those disgusted by Paxton. The margin of error is ±4.3 points.

  However, Emerson College has Talarico and Paxton tied at a very close 47% – 46%, with a margin of error of ±3 points. They also give Talarico the Hispanic vote by 54% – 39%. Emerson College seems a bit more cautious in their approach to polling than some pollsters.

  Then there’s ReconMR/Siena College, which is estimating Talarico leads Paxton 49% – 43%, which may cause national Republicans to begin plotting when they’ll stop throwing good money after bad. Siena College was top o’ the heap in 2024, and the Texas trend appears to be bigger leads for Talarico.

• The AARP has a new poll out for Alaska, carried out by FabrizioWard and Impact Research, and it estimates that former Rep Peltola (D) is leading the incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R), 46% – 41%, in Alaska’s ranked choice voting system. The poll notes, Both main candidates are well known with Peltola’s image positive at 49% – 43%, and Sullivan’s  slightly negative at 40% – 44%. A close race like this may come down to who is more likable. But I’m not sure that I trust the pollsters doing the work.
  

  I don’t usually cite co/efficient polls, but for contrast to illustrate how polling can be contradictory, co/efficient has given Senator Sullivan a 48% – 46% lead over Peltola, and claims the Senator is more likable than Peltola, 46% – 41%. Radically different models, or just straight up dishonesty?
  

  When FiveThirtyEight was still active, Rasmussen Reports was considered to be so bad by that site that it wasn’t even given a rating, only a notation that it was Republican-aligned and to avert one’s eyes. This is the first time I’ve run across them in the 2026 season, and they’re claiming Alaska’s Senator Dan Sullivan (R) is tied with Democratic former Rep Mary Peltola (D) at 39% apiece, with a ±3 point margin of error. For a Republican-aligned pollster to admit to a tie, the situation must be a bit bleak for the Republican. Furthermore,

  Seven percent (7%) would vote for Republican Daniel J. Sullivan, whose presence on the ballot has brought accusations of Democrat skullduggery. Six percent (6%) would vote for Republican “perennial candidate” Gerald Heikes, and nine percent (9%) are not sure.

  And this …

  The incumbent Sen. Sullivan is supported by 59% of Republican voters as well as 15% of Democrats and 36% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats would vote for Peltola, as would 18% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Twenty percent (20%) of Republicans would vote for either Heikes (11%) or the other Sullivan (9%). Twenty-four percent (24%) of unaffiliated voters are not sure which candidate they would vote for.

  If this wasn’t Rasmussen Reports I’d consider those findings significant.

• Unknown Wedgewood Polls is giving Nebraska incumbent Senator Ricketts (R) a significant 52% – 48% lead over Dan Osborn (I), although a largish margin of error of ±4.4 points means that, statistically, this is a tie. This is in contrast to the last Update reporting well-known pollster SurveyUSA had Osborn leading 46% – 42%.

  In other news, Osborn was caught on the horns of a dilemma hot microphone recently, expressing views of rural voters who favor President Trump. His reply comes via KMTV-3:
  

  At one point in the recording, Osborn appears to say Trump supporters’ “lives suck.” Osborn said he was capturing the anger of himself and voters across Nebraska.

  “I’m talking about people (that) are pissed off,” Osborn said. “People are disenfranchised, and that is what Trump captured in Nebraska. He captured people who are angry about the political system.”

  Well, that might work. I’ll be having bated breath until the next poll comes out.

• The untidy caboose of the primary election season was on 15 September in Delaware, where the Senate primary results yielded incumbent Senator Coons (D) as the Democratic nominee, overwhelming rivals with 78% of the 85,783 Democratic primary votes, and MD Michael Katz (R), a Delaware state Senator, as winner of the Republican primary election, with 77.3% of the 38,481 Republican primary votes. Katz ran for Senator in 2024, losing to now-Senator Rochester (D). While I didn’t find any polls, and primary vote totals are not in general use for predictive purposes, Delaware’s reputation is solid blue. I do not expect Senator Coons to lose in November.

  In the humor department …
  

  Outside spending in the primary was minimal. Sierra Club Independent Action, a super PAC, reported a single independent expenditure of $10 in support of Coons on June 22, described as a website endorsement. That figure is the only periodic-report transaction in the supplied race data through Aug. 12. [Legis1]

  Delaware’s race has certainly had very little mention in the Updates.

• Ohio Senator Husted’s (R) woes continue in a Bowling Green/YouGov poll that shows him down 48% – 45% to former Senator Sherrod Brown (D), although I’ll grant that’s a better result than InsiderAdvantage gave him in the September 11 Update.

  Notably, Ohio voters want to see their candidates clashing. In a YouGov question concerning debates, in excess of 80% of those surveyed think it’s important that Senators show up at debates.

• Speaking of debates, in this collage of campaign stories from NBC News there’s a tale of former Rep Mike Rogers (R) of Michigan, who is running for the Senate, refusing to debate:
  

  Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed took a jab at Mike Rogers tonight after his Republican opponent said he would not be participating in what would have been the first debate in a closely watched race for an open Senate seat in Michigan.

  “Mike DODGERS is too cowardly to show up to debate me,” El-Sayed wrote in a post on X, accompanied by a photo of him in a TV studio in Detroit across from an empty podium.

  Rogers’ campaign said in a statement that he would skip the debate because the moderator, WJBK-TV [a Fox affiliate] news anchor Roop Raj, displays “bias and favoritism.”

  I doubt that’ll impress Michigan independents, and may cost Rogers some votes. Of course, if Raj is a Democratic Socialist then maybe Rogers has a point … although my suspicion is that going into the den and bearding the lion is much more impressive than refusing to take a risk. I’m not saying that’s right, but it’s how American audiences often lean.

  A new poll suggests El-Sayed is clinging to a lead:

  A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Michigan poll finds 48% of Michigan voters support Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, and 46% support Republican Mike Rogers for U.S. Senate. Four percent are undecided.

  

  On The Issues: Mike Rogers (R-MI).

  This is the sort of lead that makes me wonder if it’s just an artifact of the model of the electorate being just a bit off, especially as the margin of error is ±3 points, because it keeps repeating. Then again, only 4% undecided suggests a polarized electorate. That’s also congruent with small, consistent leads. For the record, a WaPo/Schar poll estimates similar numbers. So does conservative pollster InsiderAdvantage.

  Finally, The Detroit News has endorsed former Rep Rogers (R) for the Michigan Senate seat. This is behind a paywall, so I will not try to quote from it, but Michigan News Source provides a bit of it:

  “Mike Rogers is clearly the best choice for Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat and gets our endorsement,” the board wrote. It cited the 63-year-old Rogers’ experience in the military, the FBI, the Michigan Legislature and the U.S. House.

  The editorial board also criticized Rogers’ Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, arguing that the former health official lacks the government and policymaking experience needed for the job.

  It’s hard to argue with their point concerning El-Sayed’s lack of experience, as he doesn’t appear to have held elective office, and the Senate is no walk in the park. But do Michigan voters want a hard-right specimen like Rogers? It seems to me that both Parties have done the Michigan electorate a disservice.

• Rasmussen Reports is also active in Georgia, and they give a surprising 9 point lead to Senator Ossoff (D), 51% – 42%, over Rep Collins (R). Margin of error is ±3 points. I expected a pollster with a reputation for swinging conservative to suggest Collins was making up the gap. See Alaska, above, for more on Rasmussen Reports.

  In contrast, unknown pollster Quantus Insights gives Senator Ossoff a 48.2% – 44.4% lead. I don’t take that one too seriously.

• In a bit of a shock for Democrats of Minnesota, Republican Senate nominee Michelle Tafoya (R) has tied Democratic nominee Lt Gov Flanagan (D) at 42%, with the credibility interval, similar to the margin of error, being a largish ±4.4 points. The pollster is KSTP/SurveyUSA. Perhaps Minnesota independents are impressed by Tafoya’s declaration of independence from Republican power brokers, such as Trump, or perhaps they’re put off by Democratic leadership during the fraud crisis in state government. If Tafoya does win, Trump will declare he’s responsible for her victory, and then he’ll be shocked when she turns out to be less than malleable. Don’t mess with female sports reporters, eh?
• A week ago Rasmussen Reports, see the Alaska entry, above, for more information, issued a poll giving Senate candidate Josh Turek (D) a lead of 45% – 40% over Rep Hinson (R), with a margin of error of a surprisingly small ±2 points, in Iowa. That Rasmussen would give the Democrat the lead says something, but precisely what is somewhat puzzling in a pollster with their history of failure. Moreover, Emerson College recently gave a five point lead to Rep Hinson (R), and they are a more reputable pollster by far.
• Kansas Senator Marshall (R) appears to be falling behind as Pastor Adam Hamilton (D), Marshall’s rival and the Democratic nominee for Marshall’s seat, is estimated to have a two point lead of 45% – 43%, with a margin of error of ±3.6 points and thus a statistical tie, in a Emerson College – KSN News poll.

  Perhaps the boos were fair and representative after all, as reported in the last Update for Kansas.

• In Kentucky, Democratic Senate nominee Charles Booker (D) has released a sponsored poll:
  

  Booker, the Democrat running to replace U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, received 40% in the poll of likely voters compared to Barr’s 49%.

  The poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, had a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. [Fox 56 via yahoo! news]

  Global Strategy Group had an unimpressive 1.8/3 rating from FiveThirtyEight.

• I see little mention of the Louisiana Senate race in the news, and I must apologize because I actually missed a rare poll from about a month ago:
  

  The campaign-commissioned poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling on July 21 and 22, initially found Letlow leading Davis 41% to 37%, with 22% of registered Louisiana voters undecided. After respondents heard biographical descriptions of both candidates, the result moved to 42% for Letlow and 38% for Davis, with 20% undecided. [bayou progressive]

  Public Policy Polling had a poor rating of 1.4/3 from FiveThirtyEight. Of more recent vintage is this:

  Republican Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy said he won’t endorse Congresswoman Julia Letlow in her Senate campaign, but predicted that she will easily win the Nov. 3 election to replace him. …

  “She hasn’t asked me for my endorsement,” Cassidy said Sept. 15 during a conference call with reporters. “She doesn’t need my endorsement. She has President Trump’s endorsement, and that what matters in our state.” [Shreveport Times]

  Dr. Cassidy’s missteps have been numerous, by which I mean poorly thought out votes to confirm very questionable nominees, such as Robert Kennedy, Jr as the HHS Secretary, in the Senate. So should I trust his judgment about his soon-to-be ex-constituents? Beats me. As a default, I think the answer is ‘yes.’ But he could be wrong.

• I have a note stating Harper Polling was founded by Republicans and so I take this seriously. In North Carolina they are giving former Gov Cooper (D) a big 49.2% – 34.1% lead over Michael Whatley (R). Perhaps they are never-Trumpers and know that Whatley’s allied with Trump, or maybe they’re just honest.

  Conservative pollster InsiderAdvantage estimates a smaller lead of 48.4% – 42.5%. I think I trust Harper Polling over InsiderAdvantage.

• St. Pete Polls, which was rated a respectable 2.4/3 by FiveThirtyEight, suggests Democrat Angela Nixon (D) has virtually caught up to Senator Moody (R) in the Florida Senate race, with Senator Moody barely leading, 45.2% – 44.8%. Margin of error is estimated at ±3.2 points, so this is a statistical tie.

  Do I believe it? No, this is Florida. But my mind is open. More polls of Florida, please.

• Conservative pollster InsiderAdvantage states in a headline, but without actual poll data published, … NH Pappas 48, Sununu 40%. This is in contrast to other recent polls for New Hampshire suggesting Sununu (R) is closing the gap or has even passed Pappas (D). What to make of it? Wait for the next poll.
• Rasmussen Reports, of dubious history yes, estimates South Carolina Senator D. Graham (R) leads Dr Andrews (D), 48% – 43%, with a margin of error of ±3 points. Don’t get excited.

STATE FLIPS

Just in this Update, States seemingly moving towards flipping their Senate seat’s political designation on Senate Inauguration Day are Texas, Alaska, Nebraska, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina. This, I think, exclusive of Minnesota, is the tidal wave I thought might be coming for the Republican Party, the party who worships amateurs and amateurism.

That was a lot of shocking news in just a couple of days, and we still have a month or so to go.

It appears Americans may have had enough.

PREDICTIONS?

Oh, well. I’d say I’m not drunk enough, but since I drink a cup of wine a year, two when I’m excited, I guess hiding behind that excuse won’t work.

So let’s make it easy: Texas, Alaska, Nebraska, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina will flip, along with South Carolina. That’d be 8 flips of Republicans to Democrats, and one the other way.

Senator Schumer would be vindicated, although claiming to be a genius would be silly. The Republicans made a huge error when they elected President Trump, and we’ve been watching it ever since.

And now I’m going to hope the news slows down a bit. The last two days have been very busy.

“Wait, did you say you poisoned one of us?”
“Why, yes, I did. But I can’t remember which one of you.” – Surrealist Theater.

Deadline U.S.A. (1952) is an example of the conundrums presented by remaining loyal to the tenets of democracy, rather than the wretchedness of crass capitalism. Ed Hutcheson is the managing editor of the daily newspaper The Day, recently orphaned through the death of its founder and owner, John Garrison. Garrison’s family, his heirs, are looking to sell the paper to a competitor, which will forthwith shut it down.

The Day’s reporters have been covering and investigating the death of Bessie Smith, a young woman involved with the boss of the local mob, as movie reporters are wont to do. Hutcheson must preserve the paper if the investigation is to continue; reporters are mourning the loss of the paper as if it were their family; his ex-wife is, well, his ex-wife; and gangsters are out to stop the investigation.

It’s a social hurricane with Hutcheson at the middle, and it’s riveting.

It’s not perfect. The ex-wife is little more than a cardboard cutout, while many of the minor role characters had more verve, and better development, than did her role. The Italian-American role is fairly cliched. But the price to be paid by many of these characters is deftly and effectively conveyed to the audience, without the extended dramatics we’d be likely to see in today’s movies.

In a sense, it’s an all-American movie.

I won’t recommend it, as I thought the ex-wife’s role should have been redone, but if you have an open afternoon, or are a Bogart-completist, you won’t regret seeing this one.