THE REPUBLICANS IN RETREAT
In case the interested reader hadn’t heard,
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is shifting its focus away from the North Carolina and Georgia Senate races as it works to shore up red states like Texas and flip other Democratic-held seats.
In a closed-door meeting Wednesday [9/23], Sen. Tim Scott, the chair of the NRSC, told Senate Republicans that the campaign arm will focus its spending going forward on defending GOP seats in Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas and trying to flip the Democratic-held seats of Michigan and New Hampshire, according to four people in the room who were granted anonymity to share private details. [Politico]
Maine, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas were no doubt considered safe six months ago, I’m sure. Thinking of their behavior, increasingly at variance from the world of independent voters, I conclude the inhabitants of the epistemic bubble have a hard time interacting with the real world. Now the Republicans have given up on North Carolina and Georgia, and Ohio should probably be on that list.
And why the hurried separation? Here’s a sample.
TRUMP SALLIES FORTH?
Or is he just dooming the Republicans?
After a break from the campaign trail to host China’s president in Washington — and to attend sporting events in Knoxville, Tennessee, and Chicago this weekend — President Donald Trump is planning to get back to the rally stage next week.
But instead of visiting some of the nation’s most competitive House districts or Senate races, Trump is set to visit much friendlier territory: Oklahoma and Alabama.
The red-state itinerary comes as Trump’s approval rating remains at a second-term low and as a growing number of Republicans in competitive races are distancing themselves from him. [WaPo]
Does he just want to start in friendly territory, or are Oklahoma and Alabama in play? Neither has had a recent poll that I see anywhere.
BUT SURELY THERE’S SOMETHING?
Oh, it’s too late for the Republicans to save their Senate bacon. Still, seats on the edge might be salvageable, and I think Senate Majority Leader Senator Thune (R-SD) understands that.
Barely five weeks before November’s midterm elections, Senate Republicans are rushing to pass more legislation that they can run on as polling shows Democrats within striking distance of retaking the chamber.
The Senate is expected to vote on legislation this week meant to protect consumers from high electricity costs caused in part by the data center building boom. And some Republicans are pushing to take up other bills to address voters’ frustrations with the cost of living.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) decided against sending senators home early last week to campaign, opting instead to keep the Senate in session to try to bolster Republicans’ legislative record. This week is the last that the Senate is scheduled to be in session before Election Day. [WaPo]
These are the right things to do, especially in the teeth of the tsunami initiated by the President and protected by Republican votes. I suspect too many of the Republican members of Congress, amateurs mostly, didn’t know what to do and felt bound to the Amateur-in-Chief.
A false allegiance. I hope voters take note and do not put more amateurs in charge.
BUT THE DEMOCRATS?
What is their strategy for the final month+?
How are you approaching the final stretch message-wise?
Emphasizing the economy, corruption. I think that there is still work to do with the positive messaging. And I think our candidates have shown a pretty good flair for making the arguments about bread-and-butter issues and how they’re going to come to Washington and try and press Trump to change his priorities. So we’re still going to be grounded in things that have been working here for a while. [JB Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC (Democrats-aligned), Politico]
Sounds reasonable to me. From WaPo:
Former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown, who is challenging Husted, has spent millions of dollars on ads attacking Husted over his support for data centers, which the ads blame for “causing electric bills to spike by thousands of dollars.” The National Republican Senatorial Committee warned in a memo last month that the ads are effective, describing data centers as an “anchor hanging around Husted’s neck.” …
Husted has defended his record on data centers and criticized Brown for supporting them in the past. He described his bill as a way to “show the American people that we’re serious about driving down electric prices and making life more affordable for them” — and he almost dared Democrats to block it.
Execution of the plan.
BUT WHAT ABOUT THEIR AUTOCRATIC TENDENCIES?
That’s a good question. Both Andrew Sullivan and Megan McArdle have suggested the left’s woke phenomenon may be fading away. But is that the same as Democratic autocratic tendencies being rejected? Or are they still decaying away from democracy?
FOR THE ABSENT-MINDED
Pollster ratings and leanings are from Silver Bulletin’s pollster rating service, courtesy Nate Silver.
HAVING BUGS IN EVERY HEADQUARTERS
It gives me a real headache. Here’s the previous issue of buggy bugs in insect holes.
- One of the Sullivans may still have a chance. Alaska Senate race leader Mary Peltola’s (D) campaign may be having some troubles:
Former Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D-Alaska) Senate campaign has pushed back against a report from The New York Times on Wednesday that detailed chaos in her campaign operation.
Several former Peltola aides who requested anonymity told the Times about profane outbursts and displays of anger throughout the campaign and her former congressional office. The tensions also allegedly led to a staffing shakeup days before Alaska’s August primary.
Her campaign denied any pattern of problematic behavior, but it acknowledged she “sometimes struggled to deal with her grief” after the 2023 deaths of her mother and husband. Eugene Peltola was killed in a plane crash. [The Hill]
The Trafalgar Group (B, with a heavy Republican slant) has Peltola leading the ranked-choice vote over incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R), 46.8% – 45.5%. Margin of error is ±2.9 points.
WaPo, though, suggests Alaska’s problems are sharper than most States’, and that this will more than compensate for any problems in Peltola’s campaign management.
This is one of the most unexpected pickup opportunities of 2026 for Democrats. Will it slip through their fingers?
- The Trafalgar Group (B, with a heavy Republican slant) has South Carolina Senator D. Graham (R-SC) in a statistical tie with Dr Annie Andrews, 43.4% – 42.3%, margin of error of ±2.9 points. 8.5% has yet to decide, and 5.9% are generally dissatisfied with the major parties.
This, too, is a huge and unexpected pickup opportunity for the Democratics. The Senator had best up her game, distance herself from the President, and hope he drops the entire tariff maneuver.
Or she may lose.
- The Trafalgar Group (no, I’m not repeating myself) estimates Rep Pappas (D) leads former Senator John Sununu (R) for Senator Shaheen’s (D) seat in New Hampshire, 47.4% – 40.5%, with, again, a margin of error of ±2.9 points. This is a larger lead than that accorded by Siena College (A) in the last Campaign Update and Pappas could be excused if he takes heart. However, Sununu is an experienced politician, obviously, and comes from a family well-known and liked in New Hampshire. The game’s not over just yet, but Sununu needs to make up some ground, and with the independents. This pollster has party participation numbers for this poll of Democrats = 30.3%, Republicans=35.9%, and No Party=33.8%. I doubt the Republicans are shying away from Sununu, unless he’s considered too moderate, so Pappas must be doing well with the independents.
If this is a trustworthy poll.
- Texas Democratic nominee for the Senate seat up for grabs, James Talarico (D), wants to debate rival and Republican nominee and state AG Ken Paxton (R). Paxton may be backed into a corner: debate and display ineptitude or, worse, a moral turpitude, or look like he’s afraid. This may be checkmate.
If you want a report from someone on the ground, here’s Jim Geraghty. He thinks Talarico can pull this off.
- In Iowa InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) gives Josh Turek (D) a 47.4% – 45.7% lead over Rep Hinson (R). Margin of error is ±2.83 points, so this is another statistical tie.
- InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) gives Troy Jackson (D) a slight lead of 46.4% – 45.6% over Senator Collins (R) in the Maine Senate race, again with a margin of error ±2.83 points, another statistical tie.
The editorial section of The Portland Press Herald is outraged at the incumbent Senator, which may serve to highlight her alleged corruption, noted in the previous Campaign Update for Maine, for Mainers unaware of it.
It is extremely disappointing to watch Collins and members of her staff move to immediately discredit a thorough and fair piece of investigative journalism on political and personal grounds.
The Collins campaign’s emphasis on the events taking place “seven years ago” cynically attempts to detract from the crux of the story, which hinges on the collapse of the investigation — reportedly active until the beginning of last year — due to a newly insufficiently staffed and uninterested FBI.
Given Senator Collins’ voting behavior in the Senate, I have to wonder if President Trump had, or has, a blackmail grip on her through this scandal.
That’s such a strange thing to write for me, as I remember from the second Nixon Administration onwards. President Nixon was awful, but most Presidential behavior since then has been good to better. Not with this Administration, though: suggesting a Senator is being blackmail isn’t edgy, it’s just par for the course.
- Kansas may see additional financial backing for the Democratic Senate candidate, Adam Hamilton (D), come flowing in soon. Given the contrast in finances, as Republicans are flush with dollars but not with good candidates, any shift in Democratic dollar flow can be read with some confidence as to where they think weakness lies for either team. That Kansas is at risk should be considered a deep shock to the Republican system, even if their Governor is currently Democratic; it’s nearly a hundred years since a Democrat occupied a Kansas Senate seat. Perhaps pictures of various Kansas Republican politicians, complete with Kansas Canary scrawled across, should be mailed to various national Republican figures.
Here’s a statement that may turn a few heads in Kansas:
The Kansas Livestock Association, Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association and Texas Cattle Feeders Association are closely monitoring reported U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity affecting agricultural communities in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas.
Our organizations respect the responsibility of federal agencies to enforce the law. At the same time, cattle producers, feedyards, dairies, livestock markets, processors, and other rural businesses depend on a stable workforce to care for animals, protect food safety, and keep the beef supply chain operating. Sudden workforce disruptions can create immediate animal-welfare, operational, and economic consequences that extend well beyond an individual business. These ICE operations are having a massive chilling effect on the legal, documented, skilled workers that put beef on the table and keep the cattle supply chain moving. Additionally, these types of disruptions will lead to higher beef prices for consumers.
I don’t know the percentage of the Kansas population engaged in cattle, so it’s hard to estimate its impact, but certainly some voters not in the industry will still regard it as an integral part of the Kansas economy, and resent governmental activities which disrupt it. Senator Marshall may not be at all happy about this. He may have to call for the closure of ICE in order to stay competitive with Adam Hamilton, his rival. But will he?
- Flip flop. Former Rep Mike Rogers (R), Michigan, and GOP Senate candidate, was for Trump’s War before he was against it. Seems convenient – and almost a classic desperate-candidate-blunder, except he words it as end quickly rather than never started. Will Michigan voters agree with me?
A Michigan Enjoyer poll, conducted by Cygnal (A, Democratic) and Beacon Research (B/C by themselves, but A when working with Shaw & Co, so make of this what you will), shows Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading Mike Rogers (R), 45% – 40%, with a margin of error of ±4 points. That’s a bigish margin of error, but the numbers are plausible.
Marist Poll (A- with a slight lefty drift) suggests El-Sayed has a bigger lead of 51% – 44%, with a margin of error of ±3.8 points. If El-Sayed can maintain comparable leads through the next few polls from reputable pollsters then it’ll be plausible to retain Michigan in the Democratic column.
- Marist Poll (A- with a slight lefty drift) gives former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) a lead over Senator Husted (R) in Ohio.
Brown (51%) leads Husted (43%) among registered voters statewide in the race for U.S. Senate in Ohio. Independents break for Brown (58% to 33% for Husted). Brown (50%) is +3 points against Husted (47%) in terms of who voters think will actually win the Senate contest. …
A plurality of Ohio voters (41%) say their congressional vote is mainly a vote against President Trump.
Once again, independents are key. Epistemic bubbles are anathema.
USA Today/Suffolk University (A- with a Democratic tilt) gives Brown the lead as well, 46.6% – 44.0%. No margin of error is mentioned, but it seems likely this is a statistical tie. Of particular note in this poll is the estimates given for voter preferences when it comes to the governor’s race, in which voters appear to prefer Amy Action (D) over Vivek Ramaswamy (R), 50.40% – 41.4%. This suggests dissatisfaction with the Republicans in Ohio, even though I understand Governor DeWine (R-OH) to be popular.
DECIDED
I’m adding Montana to the list of States that appear decided, this time for the Republicans. Bodnar (I) and Bankhead (D) will split the liberal vote, giving US Attorney Alme (R) the victory. This means, unless a respectable poll is published suggesting Montana can go either way, I will not be reporting on Montana further.
ABOUT TRAFALGAR
Yes, I do wonder why their margin of error is always ±2.9 points. Forgetting to update a field in their reports? Forgot how to calculate it? Making it up out of whole cloth? Remember, that’ll put holes in their holy cloth.
There. I feel much better now.
