THE PREDICTED PANIC
As GOP Members of Congress discover Trump’s interests are not their interests, rumblings of the herd worried about harrying hunters is beginning to sound…
Republican senators are privately complaining their party isn’t advancing legislation that helps ordinary voters ahead of the crucial midterm elections, according to a new report. …
One unnamed GOP senator on the ballot accused the White House of “putting a noose around all of our necks” by escalating its trade war with Canada so close to the election, the outlet said Wednesday. …
Trump’s trade war is drawing backlash from other Republicans who fear voters will blame them for the economic pain, particularly in border and farming states. [Raw Story via MSN]
President Trump’s need to prove that he’s dominant is not compatible with an electorate that has a voice to use, ears to hear, and minds to learn. No doubt Trump thinks he can lie his way out of anything, but Americans have had a lot of time to observe, analyze, and switch sides.
Something Democrats should note with humility.
And the Republicans may be acting on these observations of Trump:
- One place you won’t find President Trump? Starring in Republican ads [CNN, paywall]
- Trump implores GOP to keep him at the center of midterm campaigns, but Democrats are featuring him more [CNN, paywall]
SIENA SPEAKS!
The latest poll from Siena College and The New York Times has the following foreboding-for-Republicans conclusions:
- By 51-43% Likely Voters Favor the Democratic Candidate for Congress in their District
- Voters Trust Democrats Over Republicans on Healthcare (60-36%), Immigration (52-45%), and the Cost of Living (51-43%)
Speaks for itself, doesn’t it? Unless the polling is broken, which has been a problem over the last decade. Still, given the dismaying likelihood of mendacity from politicians these days, especially among Republicans, this poll is not implausible. And it fits right in with the Republican panic.
DOWN TO THE PAVERS
Take The Yellow Brick Road, To The Valley Of The Jolly Green Giant….
- Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, which had a respectable 2.6/3 in FiveThirtyEight days, is giving Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico (D) a 46% – 43% lead over Texas AG and Republican nominee Ken Paxton (R). The poll has a ±4.0 points for margin of error, so statistically this is a tie.
Looking at the political inclination details, 88% of the Republicans surveyed are voting for Paxton, while 94% of Democrats are voting for Talarico, suggesting a small but significant enthusiasm gap. Geographically, central Texas is leaning Talarico, while West and East Texas lean more toward Paxton.
Top-rated Siena College gives Talarico a 49% – 43% lead, and among Hispanics, the great Republican hope, the lead is 62% – 31%. That should be encouraging for the left side of the spectrum as well as those disgusted by Paxton. The margin of error is ±4.3 points.
However, Emerson College has Talarico and Paxton tied at a very close 47% – 46%, with a margin of error of ±3 points. They also give Talarico the Hispanic vote by 54% – 39%. Emerson College seems a bit more cautious in their approach to polling than some pollsters.
Then there’s ReconMR/Siena College, which is estimating Talarico leads Paxton 49% – 43%, which may cause national Republicans to begin plotting when they’ll stop throwing good money after bad. Siena College was top o’ the heap in 2024, and the Texas trend appears to be bigger leads for Talarico.
- The AARP has a new poll out for Alaska, carried out by FabrizioWard and Impact Research, and it estimates that former Rep Peltola (D) is leading the incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R), 46% – 41%, in Alaska’s ranked choice voting system. The poll notes, Both main candidates are well known with Peltola’s image positive at 49% – 43%, and Sullivan’s slightly negative at 40% – 44%. A close race like this may come down to who is more likable. But I’m not sure that I trust the pollsters doing the work.
I don’t usually cite co/efficient polls, but for contrast to illustrate how polling can be contradictory, co/efficient has given Senator Sullivan a 48% – 46% lead over Peltola, and claims the Senator is more likable than Peltola, 46% – 41%. Radically different models, or just straight up dishonesty?
When FiveThirtyEight was still active, Rasmussen Reports was considered to be so bad by that site that it wasn’t even given a rating, only a notation that it was Republican-aligned and to avert one’s eyes. This is the first time I’ve run across them in the 2026 season, and they’re claiming Alaska’s Senator Dan Sullivan (R) is tied with Democratic former Rep Mary Peltola (D) at 39% apiece, with a ±3 point margin of error. For a Republican-aligned pollster to admit to a tie, the situation must be a bit bleak for the Republican. Furthermore,
Seven percent (7%) would vote for Republican Daniel J. Sullivan, whose presence on the ballot has brought accusations of Democrat skullduggery. Six percent (6%) would vote for Republican “perennial candidate” Gerald Heikes, and nine percent (9%) are not sure.
And this …
The incumbent Sen. Sullivan is supported by 59% of Republican voters as well as 15% of Democrats and 36% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats would vote for Peltola, as would 18% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Twenty percent (20%) of Republicans would vote for either Heikes (11%) or the other Sullivan (9%). Twenty-four percent (24%) of unaffiliated voters are not sure which candidate they would vote for.
If this wasn’t Rasmussen Reports I’d consider those findings significant.
- Unknown Wedgewood Polls is giving Nebraska incumbent Senator Ricketts (R) a significant 52% – 48% lead over Dan Osborn (I), although a largish margin of error of ±4.4 points means that, statistically, this is a tie. This is in contrast to the last Update reporting well-known pollster SurveyUSA had Osborn leading 46% – 42%.
In other news, Osborn was caught on the horns of a
dilemmahot microphone recently, expressing views of rural voters who favor President Trump. His reply comes via KMTV-3:
At one point in the recording, Osborn appears to say Trump supporters’ “lives suck.” Osborn said he was capturing the anger of himself and voters across Nebraska.
“I’m talking about people (that) are pissed off,” Osborn said. “People are disenfranchised, and that is what Trump captured in Nebraska. He captured people who are angry about the political system.”
Well, that might work. I’ll be having bated breath until the next poll comes out.
- The untidy caboose of the primary election season was on 15 September in Delaware, where the Senate primary results yielded incumbent Senator Coons (D) as the Democratic nominee, overwhelming rivals with 78% of the 85,783 Democratic primary votes, and MD Michael Katz (R), a Delaware state Senator, as winner of the Republican primary election, with 77.3% of the 38,481 Republican primary votes. Katz ran for Senator in 2024, losing to now-Senator Rochester (D). While I didn’t find any polls, and primary vote totals are not in general use for predictive purposes, Delaware’s reputation is solid blue. I do not expect Senator Coons to lose in November.
In the humor department …
Outside spending in the primary was minimal. Sierra Club Independent Action, a super PAC, reported a single independent expenditure of $10 in support of Coons on June 22, described as a website endorsement. That figure is the only periodic-report transaction in the supplied race data through Aug. 12. [Legis1]
Delaware’s race has certainly had very little mention in the Updates.
- Ohio Senator Husted’s (R) woes continue in a Bowling Green/YouGov poll that shows him down 48% – 45% to former Senator Sherrod Brown (D), although I’ll grant that’s a better result than InsiderAdvantage gave him in the September 11 Update.
Notably, Ohio voters want to see their candidates clashing. In a YouGov question concerning debates, in excess of 80% of those surveyed think it’s important that Senators show up at debates.
- Speaking of debates, in this collage of campaign stories from NBC News there’s a tale of former Rep Mike Rogers (R) of Michigan, who is running for the Senate, refusing to debate:
Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed took a jab at Mike Rogers tonight after his Republican opponent said he would not be participating in what would have been the first debate in a closely watched race for an open Senate seat in Michigan.
“Mike DODGERS is too cowardly to show up to debate me,” El-Sayed wrote in a post on X, accompanied by a photo of him in a TV studio in Detroit across from an empty podium.
Rogers’ campaign said in a statement that he would skip the debate because the moderator, WJBK-TV [a Fox affiliate] news anchor Roop Raj, displays “bias and favoritism.”
I doubt that’ll impress Michigan independents, and may cost Rogers some votes. Of course, if Raj is a Democratic Socialist then maybe Rogers has a point … although my suspicion is that going into the den and bearding the lion is much more impressive than refusing to take a risk. I’m not saying that’s right, but it’s how American audiences often lean.
A new poll suggests El-Sayed is clinging to a lead:
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Michigan poll finds 48% of Michigan voters support Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, and 46% support Republican Mike Rogers for U.S. Senate. Four percent are undecided.
On The Issues: Mike Rogers (R-MI).
This is the sort of lead that makes me wonder if it’s just an artifact of the model of the electorate being just a bit off, especially as the margin of error is ±3 points, because it keeps repeating. Then again, only 4% undecided suggests a polarized electorate. That’s also congruent with small, consistent leads. For the record, a WaPo/Schar poll estimates similar numbers. So does conservative pollster InsiderAdvantage.
Finally, The Detroit News has endorsed former Rep Rogers (R) for the Michigan Senate seat. This is behind a paywall, so I will not try to quote from it, but Michigan News Source provides a bit of it:
“Mike Rogers is clearly the best choice for Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat and gets our endorsement,” the board wrote. It cited the 63-year-old Rogers’ experience in the military, the FBI, the Michigan Legislature and the U.S. House.
The editorial board also criticized Rogers’ Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, arguing that the former health official lacks the government and policymaking experience needed for the job.
It’s hard to argue with their point concerning El-Sayed’s lack of experience, as he doesn’t appear to have held elective office, and the Senate is no walk in the park. But do Michigan voters want a hard-right specimen like Rogers? It seems to me that both Parties have done the Michigan electorate a disservice.
- Rasmussen Reports is also active in Georgia, and they give a surprising 9 point lead to Senator Ossoff (D), 51% – 42%, over Rep Collins (R). Margin of error is ±3 points. I expected a pollster with a reputation for swinging conservative to suggest Collins was making up the gap. See Alaska, above, for more on Rasmussen Reports.
In contrast, unknown pollster Quantus Insights gives Senator Ossoff a 48.2% – 44.4% lead. I don’t take that one too seriously.
- In a bit of a shock for Democrats of Minnesota, Republican Senate nominee Michelle Tafoya (R) has tied Democratic nominee Lt Gov Flanagan (D) at 42%, with the credibility interval, similar to the margin of error, being a largish ±4.4 points. The pollster is KSTP/SurveyUSA. Perhaps Minnesota independents are impressed by Tafoya’s declaration of independence from Republican power brokers, such as Trump, or perhaps they’re put off by Democratic leadership during the fraud crisis in state government. If Tafoya does win, Trump will declare he’s responsible for her victory, and then he’ll be shocked when she turns out to be less than malleable. Don’t mess with female sports reporters, eh?
- A week ago Rasmussen Reports, see the Alaska entry, above, for more information, issued a poll giving Senate candidate Josh Turek (D) a lead of 45% – 40% over Rep Hinson (R), with a margin of error of a surprisingly small ±2 points, in Iowa. That Rasmussen would give the Democrat the lead says something, but precisely what is somewhat puzzling in a pollster with their history of failure. Moreover, Emerson College recently gave a five point lead to Rep Hinson (R), and they are a more reputable pollster by far.
- Kansas Senator Marshall (R) appears to be falling behind as Pastor Adam Hamilton (D), Marshall’s rival and the Democratic nominee for Marshall’s seat, is estimated to have a two point lead of 45% – 43%, with a margin of error of ±3.6 points and thus a statistical tie, in a Emerson College – KSN News poll.
Perhaps the boos were fair and representative after all, as reported in the last Update for Kansas.
- In Kentucky, Democratic Senate nominee Charles Booker (D) has released a sponsored poll:
Booker, the Democrat running to replace U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, received 40% in the poll of likely voters compared to Barr’s 49%.
The poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, had a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. [Fox 56 via yahoo! news]
Global Strategy Group had an unimpressive 1.8/3 rating from FiveThirtyEight.
- I see little mention of the Louisiana Senate race in the news, and I must apologize because I actually missed a rare poll from about a month ago:
The campaign-commissioned poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling on July 21 and 22, initially found Letlow leading Davis 41% to 37%, with 22% of registered Louisiana voters undecided. After respondents heard biographical descriptions of both candidates, the result moved to 42% for Letlow and 38% for Davis, with 20% undecided. [bayou progressive]
Public Policy Polling had a poor rating of 1.4/3 from FiveThirtyEight. Of more recent vintage is this:
Republican Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy said he won’t endorse Congresswoman Julia Letlow in her Senate campaign, but predicted that she will easily win the Nov. 3 election to replace him. …
“She hasn’t asked me for my endorsement,” Cassidy said Sept. 15 during a conference call with reporters. “She doesn’t need my endorsement. She has President Trump’s endorsement, and that what matters in our state.” [Shreveport Times]
Dr. Cassidy’s missteps have been numerous, by which I mean poorly thought out votes to confirm very questionable nominees, such as Robert Kennedy, Jr as the HHS Secretary, in the Senate. So should I trust his judgment about his soon-to-be ex-constituents? Beats me. As a default, I think the answer is ‘yes.’ But he could be wrong.
- I have a note stating Harper Polling was founded by Republicans and so I take this seriously. In North Carolina they are giving former Gov Cooper (D) a big 49.2% – 34.1% lead over Michael Whatley (R). Perhaps they are never-Trumpers and know that Whatley’s allied with Trump, or maybe they’re just honest.
Conservative pollster InsiderAdvantage estimates a smaller lead of 48.4% – 42.5%. I think I trust Harper Polling over InsiderAdvantage.
- St. Pete Polls, which was rated a respectable 2.4/3 by FiveThirtyEight, suggests Democrat Angela Nixon (D) has virtually caught up to Senator Moody (R) in the Florida Senate race, with Senator Moody barely leading, 45.2% – 44.8%. Margin of error is estimated at ±3.2 points, so this is a statistical tie.
Do I believe it? No, this is Florida. But my mind is open. More polls of Florida, please.
- Conservative pollster InsiderAdvantage states in a headline, but without actual poll data published, … NH Pappas 48, Sununu 40%. This is in contrast to other recent polls for New Hampshire suggesting Sununu (R) is closing the gap or has even passed Pappas (D). What to make of it? Wait for the next poll.
- Rasmussen Reports, of dubious history yes, estimates South Carolina Senator D. Graham (R) leads Dr Andrews (D), 48% – 43%, with a margin of error of ±3 points. Don’t get excited.
STATE FLIPS
Just in this Update, States seemingly moving towards flipping their Senate seat’s political designation on Senate Inauguration Day are Texas, Alaska, Nebraska, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina. This, I think, exclusive of Minnesota, is the tidal wave I thought might be coming for the Republican Party, the party who worships amateurs and amateurism.
That was a lot of shocking news in just a couple of days, and we still have a month or so to go.
It appears Americans may have had enough.
PREDICTIONS?
Oh, well. I’d say I’m not drunk enough, but since I drink a cup of wine a year, two when I’m excited, I guess hiding behind that excuse won’t work.
So let’s make it easy: Texas, Alaska, Nebraska, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina will flip, along with South Carolina. That’d be 8 flips of Republicans to Democrats, and one the other way.
Senator Schumer would be vindicated, although claiming to be a genius would be silly. The Republicans made a huge error when they elected President Trump, and we’ve been watching it ever since.
And now I’m going to hope the news slows down a bit. The last two days have been very busy.
