ADMIN NOTE
This post is out of order due to a bug in WordPress.
ABANDON APPEAL IN FAVOR OF SUPPRESSION
President Trump has been beating back internal GOP opposition to Trump’s Failed War, but he may be trading approval for control, and that doesn’t go over well in a country for which a strong streak of persuasion supposedly lurks. Worse yet, certain Senators that are generally aligned with the President, but have voiced disillusionment with the Failed War, may be smarting in the backlash. Senators Wicker (R-MS) and Cotton (R-AR) are mentioned in the above article.
But certainly victim Senator Cassidy (R-LA) returned fire:
According to two sources, Trump eventually told Cassidy to sit down, but Cassidy refused. He raised his voice even higher. Trump responded by calling Cassidy a “lunatic.” Cassidy referred to Trump as “brother,” prompting Trump to reply that he wasn’t his “brother.”
Eventually, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., tried to deescalate the situation, and other senators quietly encouraged Cassidy to sit down.
After the meeting, however, Cassidy showed no signs of backing down.
“I make no apologies for standing up to the president, if you will, trying to demand that more information be shared with the Senate and more information be shared with the American people,” he told reporters. “I make no apologies for that.” [MS NOW]
The domestic activity drawing the attention of voters may be the affordability solution, aka the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. It’s a rare bipartisan victory for either side, but, notably, the Democrats chose not to spoil it because they are closer to governing, rather than throwing a temper tantrum. President Trump was all set to sign it, until … he wasn’t:
Today’s Housing News Conference and Signing is hereby cancelled until such time as we pass the desperately needed SAVE AMERICA ACT, which I consider to be a National Emergency. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DJT
Now we’re waiting to see if he vetoes the bill or let’s it become law without his signature. A veto carries the risk of an override, a humiliation he’ll never endure maturely.
By trading a sure victory by signing the bill for the doubtful passage of a bill, reportedly designed to suppress voters who are not prepared with proper identification, that would be an immediate target of Federal lawsuits asking for emergency suspension of the law, President Trump is holding out of reach a Senate GOP lifeline for incumbents that might have saved their bacon. In a sentence, Trump once again proves that he expects loyalty to flow to him and not to his minions, once he’s bought them, whether it be via helping them win a seat, or absolving them of a crime.
This is a common occurrence, of course. The GOP is in a difficult position when President Trump gets an idea in his head and lets it supersede everything else.
PRE-ERRATA
I believe all references to Siena College, below, should be read as June 2026 [The New York] Times/Siena Poll.
AND IN THE CATEGORY OF AUTHORITARIAN PARTY ON AUTHORITARIAN PARTY
- In Texas comes this UTexas poll …
The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds a neck and neck contest in the U.S. Senate race between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and State Representative James Talarico, with Paxton the choice of 43% of Texas voters and Talarico preferred by a statistically indistinguishable 42%.
While I’m uncertain as to the polling competency of UTexas, I have no reason to consider them biased.
But then there’s the quite respectable Siena College, with a poll giving Paxton and Talarico both 47%, a big ol’ tie. That Paxton isn’t being buried by his opponent is a sign that Talarico is failing to inspire Texans with his virtue signaling. Can Democrats learn from that their product isn’t selling? They seem too arrogant to do that just yet.
But Republicans are forcing Texas children to read Bible stories in school. That will alienate a lot of Texans from the Republicans.
- North Carolina may be over President Trump and the GOP. From highly respected YouGov, in conjunction with Catawba College:
On The Issues: Gov Roy Cooper (D-NC).
Among the survey’s 905 weighted likely voters, Cooper received 48 percent to Whatley’s 34 percent, with 15 percent undecided at this point for November’s U.S. Senate election. These findings are consistent to the results from March’s survey, where Cooper lead by 15 points.
“Cooper’s advantage is not simply a function of Democratic support,” said Dr. Michael Bitzer, director of Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service, which wrote and paid for the survey. “His lead is being driven by independents, who currently support him by more than two-to-one over Whatley. That independent vote can often be a decisive factor in statewide North Carolina elections.”
This is particularly noteworthy as Cooper is not a moderate, but a “Populist-Leaning Liberal,” see above. His building a large lead over Mr Whatley suggests a state GOP that is falling into disrepute.
North Carolina may have been gerrymandered in the past, but district lines do not track judgments over time; just thinking of such potential legislation makes me nauseous. So this is also pertinent:
“Another noticeable dynamic is within the state’s regions: while six in ten North Carolinians who live in major cities disapprove of Trump, 55 percent in urban suburbs and rural communities also disapprove. Trump performs best in the state’s exurban counties that surround the urban counties, where 54 percent approve and 44 percent disapprove,” [Dr. Michael Bitzer, director of Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service] noted.
The next Congressional delegation’s political makeup will be of considerable interest.
Siena College gives Cooper a smaller lead of 50%-43%, but this is still significant in a state that Democrats have slavered over for years, yet not won either Senate seat in quite a while.
- In Michigan Susquehanna Polling gives Ahmed El-Sayed (D) a 22%-20% edge, within the margin of error of 5%, over Rep Stevens (D), while state Senator McMorrow (D) is left at 9%.
- In the State with an oversupply of Dan Sullivans, Dan Sullivan is suing to be put on the Alaska Senate ballot with Dan Sullivan. The Alaska legislature is talking about accommodating solutions for Dan Sullivan, rather than fighting the Dan Sullivan lawsuit. Meanwhile, venerable Siena College is splashing a bit of cold water on the Democrats’ party by giving Senator Dan Sullivan (R) a small 47%-45% lead, which is within the five point margin of error, over former Rep Mary Peltola (D).
- The 27 June primary runoff for Louisiana’s U.S. Senate seat of Senator Cassidy (R) has concluded with the nominations of Rep Letlow (R), with a 56.9% share of the Republican runoff vote, and Jamie Davis (D), with a 79.9% share of the Democratic runoff vote. For those of us who want to compare numbers, Rep Letlow received 178,407 votes, while Mr Davis received 152,472 votes.If we take these numbers seriously, I do not know why Mr Davis cannot be expected to pick up most or all of those who voted for his rival, Gary Crockett, and the total number of votes for the Democratic primary runoff was 190,918, although I do not have a summation of Mr Crockett.
On The Issues: Rep Letlow (R-LA).
But in the Republican column, the candidates were very different. Rep Letlow, despite an endorsement from President Trump, seems at least somewhat moderate, although the On The Issues summation is based on a paucity of data that may be misleading. State Treasurer Fleming, the Representative’s vanquished rival, is considered a hard right conservative. Will the latter’s backers vote for the Republican nominee regardless of positions? Will independents vote for the Republican if her position is not crystal clear?
On The Issues: Senate candidate Jamie Davis (D-LA).
And then there’s Democratic candidate Jamie Davis. He has no experience with elective office, according to Ballotpedia, although his On The Issues summation, see right, is moderate and populist, which may be optimal this election. Will moderate Republicans and independents take a chance on him?
I expect Letlow to win easily, but I could be wrong.
- A Siena College poll for Maine gives Graham Platner (D) a 49%-47% lead, well within the margin of error of 4.8 points. Platner is the fresh new thing, while Collins is experienced but probably out of warranty. If Platner manages to lose, a significant segment of the younger Democrats will have a blot on their record which may inhibit future intra-party maneuvering, despite progressive celebrations over successfully primarying older incumbents.And Fox News, highly respected in polling, is giving Senator Collins a 50%-47% lead over Platner, within the margin of error of ±3 points. This is a tight race, and Platner may not be up to the job unless Collins makes a prominently poor decision in the Senate.
- A Saint Anselm College/UNH poll of New Hampshire voters gives Rep Pappas (D) a 47%-41% lead over former Senator Sununu (R), the brother of Governor Sununu (R). The New Hampshire primary has not yet been held, and the poll has further results, but these two appear to be the favorites.
- A University of New Hampshire poll gives Senator Markey a 41%-35% lead in the Democratic Massachusetts primary over Rep Moulton. Both have a substantial lead over the only Republican in the Republican primary, Michael Deaton (R), in the same poll. Whoever wins the Democratic primary will win the general election, sans a black swan event. So will Moulton catch Markey by 1 September, which is the primary election date? Moulton’s been slowly creeping up, and is much younger than Senator Markey.
- A Siena College poll for Iowa gives Rep Hinson (R) a 48%-46% lead over Josh Turek (D), which is well within the margin of error of five points.
- A Siena College poll for Ohio gives incumbent Senator Husted (R) a 50%-47% lead over former Senator Sherrod Brown (D), which is well within the margin of error of five points. This result is in contrast with an earlier Fox News poll showing Brown holding a 53% – 45% lead.
- The 30 June Senate primary in Colorado yielded unchallenged Republican state Senator Mark Baisley and the incumbent Senator, John Hickenlooper (D), who won his primary 56.7% – 43.3% over challenger Julie Gonzalez, which is closer than I suspect the Senator was expecting. The two victors move on to the general election, which also includes a horde of independent and small party candidates. At present I expect the incumbent to easily win.
SUMMER BREAK
The next Senate primary elections are on 4 August, in Kansas, Michigan, and Virginia; two days later, on 6 August, is the Tennessee Senate primary election.
I won’t be on break, sad to say.
