The 2026 Senate Campaign: Updates

ADMIN

Apologies, hand, surgery, etc. Almost done with the brace!

HE HOPS THE FENCE AND INTO THE WILDERNESS HE TROTS

… while shouting, in a voice hoarsened by incessant lying, It’s a wonderful city, isn’t it? I designed it myself!

Hours after the Labor Department reported that inflation had crested above 4 percent for the first time since early 2023, [President] Trump told reporters, “I love it, the numbers were great,” adding that oil prices didn’t climb as high as he thought they might when he ordered attacks on Iran in late February.

“I love the inflation,” he said. “You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, … it’s going to come down like a rock.” [Politico]

Well, at least when he predicts negative inflation, it’s technically possible. That’s when prices drop.

This is what happens when a chronic liar, painted into a corner, takes too big a sniff of the paint fumes, and tries to claim the ongoing disaster is a good thing that he will enjoy. Supporters will hold cult meetings expressly to try to interpret the occult Trump signs.

Republicans running for Senate seats must be aghast as the chains around their waists tighten and they’re dragged towards the edge of the cliff by the babbling idiot on the other end, swinging back, swinging forth, oblivious to the sand and pebbles of his tumbled fortress falling into his eyes.

Can they unlock the chains in time? Or will they wait for the Democrats to fall on their swords? The latter is actually not a bad strategy, but if the Democrats are leaning towards more sensible policy positions, as noted in a previous installment, success may be marginal.

BUT HE HAS A CEASE-FIRE!

And that’s not the unconditional surrender he claimed was imminent for how long?

But at this point, we should just fire him and take what we can get. While we’re not yet near riots in the streets, we have some toes on that path, and really need to think about how things are going. Republicans, are you paying attention? Well, this guy isn’t.

THIS IS A BIG HINT

To both Republicans and Democrats:

President Donald Trump’s poor approval rating continues to weigh down his party ahead of the midterms — though the GOP has a slim measure of separation from the president, with Democrats holding a 5-point lead in the battle for control of Congress, according to a new national NBC News poll.

The poll — which was sponsored by More Perfect, a nonpartisan nonprofit dedicated to advancing democracy — found 49% of registered voters say they prefer to see Democrats control Congress as a result of this year’s elections, compared to 44% who prefer Republican control and 7% who are unsure. [NBC News]

Each side has, as its adversary, a Party constituted of whack-jobs and flakes, condemning the other as Evil Incarnate – and not without reason. That neither side is running away is a condemnation from the independents, who are shaking their heads.

It’s time for new Parties.

Meanwhile, if the Republicans led an impeachment of the President, I’ll bet they’d retain control of Congress.

THE WAKE OF DOOM <cough> <cough>

  • In Alaska the latecomer Sullivan claims to be in earnest:

    Alaska U.S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan acknowledges that sharing a name and party affiliation with the incumbent Republican gives him “an instant megaphone” in the crowded primary race. But Sullivan said his campaign isn’t a sham or something Democrats put him up to doing. …

    “This is my choice,” Sullivan, who lives in the small fishing community of Petersburg, said in a telephone interview Monday. [AP]

    But the Alaska Division of Elections disagrees, and has disallowed the second Sullivan from running. Only one Dan Sullivan at a time, please? Some common-sense solutions are offered up in the article, such as labeling the Senator as the incumbent on the ballot. Maybe one of them will be selected.

    In polling news, Alaska Survey Research finds …

    Mary Peltola [(D)] extends her lead over Dan Sullivan [(R)] to over 5 points in the US Senate general election race!

    But I can’t find the actual poll. Is it wise to trust a BlueSky news release? Especially if they seem partisan?

  • In Texas

    Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) holds a 3-point edge over state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in the Lone Star State’s Senate race, according to a new poll conducted by the Texas Pulse. [The Hill]

    I do not know Texas Pulse, so is this significant?

    Meanwhile, there’s dissension in the ranks:

    As Texas Republicans meet for their state convention in Houston to project unity after heated primaries, the former top Republican elected official in the state’s biggest red county will take over local radio airwaves with one message: “I won’t vote for Ken Paxton.”

    The one-minute ad featuring former Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley will be blasted on conservative airwaves in Houston on Friday and Saturday during the GOP’s state convention. The pro-James Talarico super PAC, Lone Star Rising, spent around $5,000 for an initial ad run during the convention but will continue to air the spot throughout the campaign season. [Spectrum News]

    While it won’t move hordes of Texas voters, it’ll make some few think. It also makes primary voters look bad, which will cause more dissension as primary voters who voted for Paxton grow resentful of the condemnation.

  • In Maine, the 9 June primary election yielded Graham Platner (D) easily winning the Democratic primary, 72% – 19.5%, and rendering my speculations of an upset by Governor Mills (D) bootless. His first challenge? Not Senator Collins (R), but this:

    Platner, a Marine Corps veteran and first-time candidate, launched his campaign in August 2025 as a populist challenger to five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins. He withstood early uproar over inflammatory Reddit posts and a Nazi-linked tattoo, and Maine Gov. Janet Mills’s withdrawal from the Democratic primary race all but assured his win.

    But he faces a different electorate in the general election, and recent reports that he sent sexually explicit texts to several women while married and mistreated former romantic partners have cast additional doubt on his electability.

    Platner has responded to many of the revelations by attributing his past actions to poor mental health and post-traumatic stress disorder after his military service, saying voters should focus on Collins’s voting record. He also denied recent allegations from an ex-girlfriend that he was physically intimidating, pointing to her past in GOP politics to question her credibility. [WaPo]

    That was published 10 June, one day after the primary election. As Senator Collins is a moderate Republican, independents are not going to feel as strongly motivated to vote against a Republican incumbent Senator as they might in some States. Makes ya wonder about WaPo, doesn’t it? Maybe working for the Republicans?

    However, Mr Platner is not without options. He could drop out of the race, for one thing, and the Party could then select his rival, Governor Mills, despite her age. She’s older than Collins, and the Party should be asking where the up and comers have gone, but too late now.

    Or Platner could work with an enduring principle of American life: Redemption. If he can make this into a redeemer campaign, it could all play out well for him. I think he’s already trying, so can he make it fly?

    In any case, President Trump has endorsed Senator Collins. Another cross for her to bear.

  • In South Carolina, the 9 June primary election yielded incumbent Senator Graham (R), with only 56.8% of the Republican votes, and Annie Andrews, with 61.5% of the Democratic votes. While the Senator’s results may indicate the primary voters are restive, I doubt that puts Graham in the troubled category. It’s still a walk for Graham. 

    Although his frenzied spending remains a puzzle.

  • Last time I saw a poll for the Hudson / Moore primary runoff in Alabama, unknown pollster co/efficient gave Rep Moore a nine point advantage, and that poll was released on 6 June. Now a poll released by unknown pollster Strategy Management on 9 June gives Hudson a 5 point lead, 42% – 37%. Yes, predicting elections has become difficult, but biased polling is a thing – and some biases are bought, and I don’t know all of the, ah, vendors with bias for sale.
  • Any poll in Idaho is a miracle, so I don’t care if I’ve never heard of Peak Insights … oh, I have. Once. In 2024. Unrated. In Idaho’s Senate race, they give incumbent Senator Risch (R) a 55% – 15% lead over David Roth (D), and that’s not a typo. In the name recognition race, Senator Risch is familiar to 85% of the surveyed, while only 39% had heard of Mr Roth. That’s not a winning strategy for Mr Roth.
  • In the Michigan race, Rep Stevens (D) is now sporting a brand new sexy endorsement from Senator and Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D). Polls are not scarce, but just insert the word respectable and they scatter like ducks at the sight of a hunting dog.
  • The Georgia primary election is imminent and President Trump is hungry for glory:

    President Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Mike Collins (R-Georgia) early Sunday[14 June,] ahead of Tuesday’s runoff in Georgia’s GOP Senate primary, wading into a race that could determine control of the chamber this fall.

    “Mike is strongly supported by the most Highly Respected MAGA Patriots in Georgia and beyond,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, touting his alignment with Collins on a number of policies. “He is a WARRIOR and WINNER!“ [WaPo]

    I cannot help but note if Collins was so fabulous, Trump would have endorsed him weeks ago.

  • Last-term Senator McConnell (R) of Kentucky, whose current term ends on the Senate’s Inauguration Day early next year, is in the hospital, reason not given.
  • The next set of Senate primaries is 16 June, and consist of Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Colorado is a week later.

REVISION, REVISION …

I’m moving Maine (R) from likely to flip to unlikely to flip but possible.

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About Hue White

Former BBS operator; software engineer; cat lackey.

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