THE MORE THINGS DON’T CHANGE
… the deeper the swamp becomes? The AG position at the DOJ has been officially filled by Todd Blanche, formerly personal attorney for the President, who mysteriously worked hard to be approved by a skeptical Congress. Republican Senators Murkowski and Collins voted against him.
Collins called Blanche “a capable lawyer,” but she said the Department of Justice (DOJ) under his leadership [as assistant and later acting AG] has “become increasingly political.”
She cited several actions that she believe have “further eroded the department’s independence” as “the basis for my vote to oppose his confirmation.” [The Hill]
President Trump was furious with Murkowski, but not Collins.
Trump’s War continues to burn, U.S.S. Lincoln is setting records for deployments and consequential drop in morale, public disapproval of the President continues to mount, and VP Vance looks like a deer in the headlights, when he’s seen at all.
Who wants to vote for chaos?
NATIONAL UNDERCLOTHES
Try not to have accidents, unlike last time.
- In what might have been the marquee event of the last week or so, the 11 August Republican special primary election in South Carolina did not yield an outright winner and nominee. Senator D. Graham (R) took 32.8%, Rep Norman (R) won 23.5%, followed by Russell Fry, Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch. The first two advance to a run off, scheduled for 25 August. Notably, 40% of the vote might be classified as “not Darline Graham,” so I think Rep Norman has a shot at winning the special primary, and if he were to do so he’d be the presumptive Senator from South Carolina – and, by losing, D. Graham would become yet another Trump-endorsee who found the burden too great to bear. Can Rep Norman do it?
In other news, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) is endorsing Senator D. Graham for the seat, while businessman Mark Lynch, who came in fifth place in the primary, endorsed Rep Norman.
- Minnesota held its primaries on 11 August, and for the Senate Michelle Tafoya won the GOP nomination over GOP-endorsed Adam Schwarze, who did beat the polls with a 23.5% portion of the votes, much better than said polls predicted. The Democratic primary voters selected Lt Governor Flanagan over Rep Craig, and by a significant margin: 58.9% to 39.5%, close to 20 points. The last few polls had suggested an exceedingly tight race in which Rep Craig’s superior finances might provide the advantage, but no; professional political analysts credit Flanagan’s ground game. I understand from some voters that they were offended by the tail of commercials from Craig, so perhaps Craig or her allies misunderstood Minnesota sensibilities.
Mz Tafoya, as I heard on MPR, proclaims herself beholden to neither Party nor President, and supports abortion rights. I see this as a necessary beginning in a State in which most voters consider the President to be a moral and practical failure, but I doubt Tafoya will win the Senate seat.
- In Montana Seth Bodnar’s (I) and Rep Bankhead’s (D) opportunities to withdraw in favor of the other have passed. Can either beat both the other and the third candidate with a real chance, Kurt Alme (R)? Seems unlikely, but have a go at it, folks.
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On The Issues: Gov Roy Cooper (D-NC).
Elon University is giving former Gov Roy Cooper (D) a 53% – 42% lead over Michael Whatley (R) in the race for the open North Carolina Senate seat. I am not familiar with Elon University, but those numbers seem plausible. Along with those are numbers indicating the President is underwater in the job approval department in the estimation of North Carolina voters by 18 points, so it’s no surprise the Republican candidate, Mr. Whatley, is trailing badly. Gov Cooper (D) is not a moderate, see right, making the general run of North Carolina Senate polls even more interesting, and suggesting the GOP has really shot itself in the foot by following Mr. Trump, rather than tossing him out on his ass.
- VoteVets is stepping into the Alaska Senate race:
VoteVets Action Fund is going into Alaska, launching a $225,000 ad buy against Sen. Dan Sullivan for his votes against reining in President Donald Trump’s Iran war powers, according to details first shared with Semafor.
It’s the start of what’s expected to be a larger VoteVets campaign against Sullivan, who is facing former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in a highly competitive race.
The ad ties Sullivan’s Iran votes to rising costs in Alaska: “Nine-dollar-a-gallon gas in Dillingham, nine bucks a pound of ground beef in Anchorage. That’s not the cost of living. That’s the cost of Dan Sullivan’s votes,” the ad says. “Sullivan voted a dozen times for this war in Iran.” [Semafor]
I do have to wonder if there is a quid pro quo, stated or not, when these independent entities intrude on races. But dollars are a necessary-but-not-sufficient component of a successful campaign.
- In Texas an Emerson College poll is giving Republican Ken Paxton a 47% – 46% lead over James Talarico (D), calling it a dead heat. Under Party Affiliation Republicans outnumber Democrats, 47.6% to 32.4%, and the power-holding Independents/others are at 20%, suggesting a number of Republicans are either voting Talarico or not voting at all. I can’t fault their position.
- Fox News Poll is joining other polling services in giving Maine’s Troy Jackson (D) a small lead over Senator Collins (R) of 48% – 46%, with a margin of error of ±3 points, or a dead heat.
- Don’t get excited and/or appalled, depending on ideology, by this poll from Bullfinch Group, even if it does put the Idaho Senate seat in play, placing Todd Achilles (I) only four points behind Senator Risch (R).
Recent statewide polling of likely 2026 voters in Idaho shows Independent Todd Achilles in an exceptionally strong position against incumbent Republican Senator Jim Risch. Achilles trails Risch by just 4 percentage points while boasting a stellar net favorability rating and huge room for growth.
Why not? My posts from 2024 indicate Bullfinch had poor accuracy and might have been partisan. Such problems can be reformed away, of course, but I have no reason to assume such reforms have taken place.
ANY FINAL THOUGHTS?
Not really. I don’t have to be entertaining or profound in every Campaign Update.
