THE BAD NEWS TSUNAMI
Republicans are facing a wave of bad news, and it’s mostly their leader that has them in a pickle, with a fair seasoning of their own inability to say No! to their little child of a leader. I could cite Trump’s War and how it’s sucking in various players, or the threats to the nearby and critical Suez Canal, or we could move on to an economy that is so worrying the Federal Reserve that at their recent quarterly meeting, the leaders of the various Banks leaders didn’t even consider reducing interest rates, as demanded by President Trump, but held them steady while reporting some of the leaders recommended a rate increase. Or we could talk about his various distractions, such as redesigning Dulles Airport, or the Qatari-gifted airliner that needs upgrading, or the Medicare subsidy cancellation, … so many other problems.
But let’s go with a poll from highly respected Quinnipiac University:
Thirty-two percent of voters approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 58 percent disapprove, with 10 percent not offering an opinion.
Trump’s 32 percent approval is an all-time low approval rating for him in a Quinnipiac University poll.
This may be especially hurtful to the GOP Senators …
Twenty-nine percent of voters think Donald Trump is focused enough on addressing the problems most Americans are facing, while 68 percent think he is not focused enough on addressing the problems most Americans are facing.
By the time the November elections comes around, voters may be asking why the GOP caucus in Congress did not remove the President as soon as problems appeared. And vote accordingly.
HERE’S THAT CAVE WHERE YOU LEFT YOUR TOY MONSTERS
They said that was from last week and they don’t want them.
- Remember the recent action in Nebraska wherein Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank declared she couldn’t beat incumbent Senator Ricketts (R) and withdrew in favor of Dan Osborn (I)? It’s happening again in Idaho:
The Democratic candidate who hoped to unseat U.S. Sen. Jim Risch in Idaho announced Tuesday that he is dropping out of the race, leaving Independent Todd Achilles as the challenger to the longtime Republican.
David Roth, who won the Democratic primary in May, said he was proud of his campaign and believes in what Democrats are fighting for across Idaho, but decided to shift his efforts to other areas.
“I have concluded that I can make the greatest difference by focusing my time and energy on helping Democrats win up and down the ballot and in communities across Idaho,” he wrote in a statement. [Idaho Statesman]
Mr Achilles doesn’t appear to be a slouch, according to Ballotpedia, with time in the US Army, various degrees in economics and international relations, time in corporate America, and a couple of years in the Idaho statehouse, albeit on appointment rather than winning an election.So does Mr Achilles have a chance? Some parts of the country are hungry to kick out old politicians, and Senator Risch (R) is 83. Public Policy Polling (PPP) thinks he could be ejected. Me? The information at PPP struck me as a trifle fantastical and speculative. Show me a poll from a highly-rated pollster.
- Troy Jackson, the Democratic nominee for the Senate seat currently held by Maine Senator Collins (R-ME) is up for grabs:
Jackson said Maine voters do not think the federal government is working for them and are looking for a change. “There’s an energy like I’ve never seen of people that are frustrated. They’re fed up,” he said.
“We can have much better government than we have right now, and people in Maine are going to show up in November, and Susan Collins is in trouble,” he added. [MS NOW]
But Mainers know Senator Collins. Certain of her votes in the Senate have certainly been unpopular, but the mark of a good politician is the ability to turn what looks unpopular into a badge of honor. In today’s polarized climate, however, that feat is more difficult to accomplish than in previous decades. And Maine is … the nation’s oldest state, according to Census.gov. That may work against Jackson.
- North Carolina’s getting a bit of love in this issue of Campaign Update as the national GOP tries to claw back the Senator Tillis (R) seat, which former Governor Cooper (D-NC) currently has in a headlock:
The Senate’s top GOP super PAC is launching a $17 million summer ad campaign in North Carolina — its largest reservation anywhere in the country so far this cycle, underscoring the state’s importance to Republicans’ hopes of defending their Senate majority.
The investment, shared first with POLITICO, is the first tranche of Senate Leadership Fund’s previously announced plan to spend $71 million in North Carolina this year. It comes as early public polling shows Democrat Roy Cooper, the state’s popular former governor, with a lead over GOP nominee Michael Whatley, the former RNC chair. [POLITICO]
$71 million seems excessive, as I continue to ignore Trump’s Inflation forcing prices up. But it seems Republicans think they can expose weaknesses in Cooper’s record. The problem with this assertion? The Republicans have spent much of the last few years being absolutely tone-deaf, which is also true of the Democrats. But Cooper has struck me as not so tone-deaf, having won two governor races in this Republican state.
On The Issues: Gov Roy Cooper (D-NC).
Meanwhile, highly respected Fox News Poll is giving Cooper a 53% – 44% lead over Michael Whatley, the Republican nominee for Tillis’ Senate seat. Of particular interest was that Cooper voters are mostly interested in voting for Cooper, but Whatley voters are 46% voting against Cooper. While that doesn’t directly address the enthusiasm question, it is suggestive of a Democratic advantage in that department. Add in that nearly half of participants were concerned Whatley is too close to the profoundly unpopular President, and Whatley will need to step away from Trump in order to make a move on Cooper.
- Another clutch of polls for Michigan: In the Democratic primary, Mitchell Research has Abdul El-Sayed (D) with a 52% – 38% lead over Rep Haley Stevens, while the defunct Mallory McMorrow (D) is at 4%, trailing Undecideds, who are at 7%. This is a larger lead for El-Sayed than Mitchell’s prior poll. However, the margin of error is ±4.85 points with n=406 likely primary voters, which is not all that large.
Meanwhile, in another poll Mitchell has Republican nominee and former Rep Rogers in a tie with El-Sayed at 45%, while Rogers leads Stevens by 3 points, 46% – 43%. Margin of error is ±3.77%.Emerson College Polling has El-Sayed with a 54% – 39% lead, impossible to overcome using only undecideds, so Rep Stevens will have to convince El-Sayed leaners to lean towards herself. I know Emerson had better ratings than Mitchell, so this one should worry Rep Stevens.Finally, unknown Tavern Research gives El-Sayed a 46% – 36% lead, again substantial. Polls can be badly wrong, but three, including Emerson, leaning against Rep Stevens must cast a shadow on her chances.
- The Texas GOP may want to contract with Austin, TX, for a heaping bucket of the blues. The highly respected Fox News Poll does not have good news for them as Democrat James Talarico (D) leads state AG Ken Paxton (R) 51% – 48%, with a margin of error of ±3 points. Of course, the Democrats should lead by more, and that should tell them something, too. But, like the Republicans, they are too arrogant to listen, I expect.
IS CHANGE IN THE AIR?
Not usually, but I never expected to see even a hint that Idaho might be in play. Let’s be frank, it’s still not likely that Senator Risch (R-ID) will lose, but, like the Minnesota Twins game Thursday night in which they were beat until they weren’t, often dominance doesn’t seem to be beatable until someone grits their teeth and doesn’t stop and overturns the unbeatable.
Or, for those of us who favor brevity, persistence pays off.
While the odds are still with their opponents, these two independents could herald the beginning of the replacements for the major Parties of today.
