Category Archives: Uncategorized

Here’s an interesting statement from President Trump:

The Hormuz Strait is OPEN, and will remain OPEN, with or without Iran. We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran’s ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait. The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as “THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,” but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World. The process and formation will begin immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

That’s right, charging for passage through a natural strait. But I wonder if he’s thought this through? Oh, what am I saying.

A single example out of many: who will collect the tolls around Cape Horn, the southern tip of South America? Will Chile and Argentina arm-wrestle over it? Come to a sensible compromise?

And, adding all these straits and capes together, how much would this cost the United States? Perhaps countries collecting these tolls will adjust based on nationality, or origin of this trip? This is sounding like a rat’s nest of an idea, honestly.

And how much does it cost to put aircraft carriers in the Strait of Hormuz and fly periodic monitoring flights?

And this, the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, is the subject that keeps on giving. Here I thought the acquisition was approved and paid for and inevitable and … no, maybe it is not.

At least some of them recognize reality.

“It’s not a real convention. The RNC hasn’t written any rules for this,” [a Republican consultant] said on condition of anonymity, citing Trump’s famous vindictiveness. “It’s just this grifter free-for-all.” [HuffPo]

This may be a grand opportunity to evaluate the Republican Party’s mass credulity, of course. A big mob would indicate there are more sheep to shear.

And if it’s a small group of critters bah-ing in sudden apprehension?

Then they need to participate in the political conversation. For example, in reaction to this …

The White House has lashed out after a news website accused Donald Trump of “taking credit” for a Walmart discount by revealing that the supermarket’s offer was already in place before he championed it.

Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday that the retail giant would be “dropping the price for a pound of ground beef by almost 15 percent,” which he said had been instigated “at my Administration’s request.”

The following day, The Wall Street Journal reported that a U.S. Department of Agriculture official had called around the big retailers urging them to lower their prices ahead of the Fourth of July weekend, relaying news of Walmart’s promotion to the West Wing and prompting the president’s post.

The Bulwark’s Catherine Rampell then reported that a company spokesperson had told her the offer was part of “one of its regular price ‘Rollback’ events,” which had come into effect “early last week – i.e., the week before Trump blasted out his claim that price cuts were imminent and would be happening at his request.” [The Independent]

… then Walmart should have an addendum to their advertising signs that says

… the rollback in prices is an annual occurrence and not in consequence of a request from the ever-boastful President.

They can leave out the gratuitous adjective if they wish.

So why? Walmart should put a prominent value on truthfulness as a way to show they’re aligned with their customers and not with the big bad business monster.

If, of course, companies are people, too.

It’s been a month, or more, since I last discussed Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT), and so it seems like I should again. DJT has had an exciting ride over the last month, I suppose:

The net result is a smidgeon of growth, but that conceals the chart illustration of a company that fell to close to $7/share in value before returning to $8.54/share. DJT is abandoning its previously announced spinoff plans:

… as previously disclosed on February 27, 2026, TMTG, TAE and Texas Ventures Acquisition III (Nasdaq: TVA) (“Texas Ventures III”) have been engaged in discussions regarding a potential spin-off  o f certain TMTG media assets, including Truth Social, into a new publicly traded company that could be merged with Texas Ventures III (the “Spin-Off”) following the closing of the TAE Merger. After further evaluation, the parties have determined not to continue pursuing the Spin-Off at this time.

But the TAE merger is still on, at least officially. Notably, the TAE merger announcement juiced a jump to nearly $15/share; these days DJT’s value per share is nowhere near that number. There does not seem to be much long-term excitement for the merger.

And how about the vaunted cryptocurrency treasury? These 1 month charts of Bitcoin and $TRUMP suggest a problematic outcome for the treasury, although as owners of the latter the Trumps may be making money from sheer issuance.

Bitcoin continues a slow slide from its high of $120/coin of a few years ago.

The $TRUMP valuation must be particularly depressing for holders of same, as it continues to depress in value relatively quickly. To my eye, as a memecoin it has no intrinsic value, and its extrinsic value in being linked to President Trump is diminishing as more and more folks realize he’s an incompetent boob whose ambitions are illicit, ill-supported, and self-destructive; and who surrounds himself with similarly fourth-rate minions who value their allegiance to him over their allegiance to the nation. Finally, being an intangible construct means they are vulnerable to the same cohort of threats known for all computers, from long-term power-loss to Carrington Events. You can’t collect them and put them in colorful picture frames.

Why bother with them? But I’m just a guy with an opinion; for subjects like this, take the opinions of a professional financial advisor seriously. They may be even more vociferous.

• This morning we were met by the announcement of South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham’s (R) sudden passing. While his recent support of President Trump was and is perplexing, this remains a sadder time than many will realize. He’d served the nation in the Air Force as a Judge Advocate General, then joined the South Carolina Air National Guard, and then the U.S. Air Force Reserve, and thus deserved respect for his military service.As a member of Congress in both the House and the Senate, he’d served for 31 years and built a reputation for expertise in foreign affairs and a war hawk. The loss of this expertise is more important than judged by those who think politics is some sort of big game from which to extract trophies and victories, regardless of political persuasion. Governance is about keeping the populace safe, and experience and expertise is one very important part of promulgating wise governance. A loss of experience and expertise is a loss for all of us.

  Senator Graham was running for re-election and had won the primary. How much impact does his passing have on that race? If you’re a Republican in South Carolina, a bit at least. WaPo reports a special (primary) election must be held in order to select a new candidate, with a filing period of 21-28 July, and the actual election on 11 Aug, plus a potential runoff on 25 Aug.

  Who might run? Here’s WaPo’s analysis, no doubt a trifle hasty:

  South Carolina has six sitting GOP House members, including Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, who both gave up their seats to run unsuccessfully for governor this year. A person familiar with Mace’s thinking confirmed that she is strongly considering running for Senate.

  South Carolina’s crowded gubernatorial primary also included Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Trump’s initial pick, who lost in a runoff. Graham faced a primary challenge from the right in business owner Mark Lynch, who received nearly 29 percent of the vote in June.

  President Trump tried to tease that he has a choice, but didn’t give a name. I’ll take that to mean the perceived front-runner will receive the endorsement just prior to the election date, as that has become the President’s strategy in his desperate quest for respect.

  If you’re not a Republican then … not so much. Even if the winner of the primary is well out of step with the South Carolina Republican base and independents, it’s most likely that the nominee will still win. Just ask former Rep Joe Cunningham (D-SC).

  Rest in Peace, Senator Graham.

From former Rep Joe Cunningham (D-SC) during a South Carolina gubernatorial race in 2022:

Some might say that a Democrat such as Cunningham isn’t electable in MAGA-red South Carolina, where President Donald Trump is still the endorser in chief. Cunningham admits that campaigning was often tough. In Trump strongholds such as Goose Creek (near Charleston) or even Hilton Head, people don’t want to hear a word from Democrats, he told me in an hour-long conversation Wednesday. At least Cunningham was hearing people out as he tackled a tour of the state’s 46 counties before the governor’s race. He heard what voters cared about — not the Democratic Party’s green energy tax breaks, but grocery prices, affordable housing, education and health care. The mayor of one small town told Cunningham that residents just wanted a grocery store.

These days, Cunningham is less frustrated by his defeats than by the sorry state of the Democratic Party — the hypocrisy, disingenuousness and disconnect from what Americans generally care about. He detailed his observations in a recently self-published book, “Life of the Party,” an easy-to-read autopsy of his beloved party’s departure from reality. He takes no prisoners in these pages, as he nails and names Democrats for “chasing causes and issues that affect a very small percentage of Americans.”

“The Party’s gaze has drifted beyond the basic needs … and has settled on a culture war that includes gender identity, racial quotas, DEI, and bathrooms,” he wrote. “It has cost them swaths of voters who may never come back.” [Kathleen Parker, WaPo]

My bold. This is why I have suggested, and will keep suggesting, that the Democratic Party is, like the Republican Party, a good bet for replacement in the near future. The Republicans are, to an overwhelming extent, a bunch of fourth-raters who love power more than they love wise governance. The Democrats will, as third-raters, celebrate their victory in November, blame voters as bigots for not voting for them in greater numbers as an example of CYA, and mistakenly claim that their victory is a mandate for all the out-there positions they’ve taken.

And either the Republicans win the next election, or one of the Parties will be reduced to minor Party status. Or, at least, so I hope. Many Republicans know this is coming, and so we get report aggregations such as Professor Richardson’s report today, suggesting President Trump is trying to befoul the midterm.

Things could get dicey if Congress doesn’t dump Trump’s ass out onto Pennsylvania Ave. And then put a harness of VP Vance.

It looks like someone may have captured Cthulhu and forced it to showoff on the runway.

They seem to favor horns.

I think those bluesies are trumpets.

The Sheep Detectives (2026), as a title, is a little too painfully on the nose, honestly, for this story. The herd’s shepherd is dead, the sheep are in a tumult, and to ask a sheep to understand human society well enough to solve a moderately twisted crime just seems too unlikely.

Not that the story is uninteresting, or the acting inferior, or it all lacks a sense of humor. All of those elements are present. But there is a strain on the sense of credulity necessary to accept a story of this sort.

It may help to think of Chicken Run (2000), which faces similar straits and manages to pass through them. Does The Sheep Detectives? It may all depend on how tightly bound you are to the Earth.

Here’s two paragraphs from two different articles on the same subject from the same site:

The man is getting laughed at every day, by judges, by world leaders, by European soccer players. Most of the world is responding to him with a collective eye roll. But that does not mean we can dismiss him entirely, because when this president gets embarrassed, when he feels cornered, that is when he’s most likely to try to cling to power. [former Biden Administration Press Secretary Jen Psaki, MS NOW]

And

The New York Times reported last week:

President Trump is trying to use the levers of the federal government, along with personal influence over state and local lawmakers, to reshape the rules governing the 2026 midterms and future elections in extraordinary ways.

Many of these efforts have been blocked by courts, stymied by the Constitution or stopped in Congress. But the relentless assault by the president on the electoral process — both administratively and rhetorically — is likely to sow doubt and lay groundwork for extensive challenges to election results.

The lengthy and detailed Times report highlighted what is effectively a “whole of government” initiative, with officials and agencies from across the executive branch — from the Justice Department to the Department of Homeland Security, the intelligence agencies to the U.S. Postal Service — launching dozens of overlapping efforts aimed at tipping the electoral scales in the Republican Party’s favor months before a single ballot is cast. [Steve Benen, Maddowblog]

It’s fascinating how one characterizes President Trump as a doddering old fool, while the other suggests the President is a clever schemer.

The best conclusion I can come up with is that the President is someone’s somewhat rogue thumb puppet, signing Executive Orders when so told, but other times pursuing his own dreams of self-aggrandizement, regardless of the wishes of the puppet-master.

It’ll be interesting to see who is revealed as the puppet-master at the end of this macabre show.

WILL THIS BE THE SEASON OF MONSTROUS TOYS?

As more and more primaries are completed, some nominees are being unveiled, such as Graham Platner (D-ME) and Ken Paxton (R-TX), that aren’t quite clearing the ethical bar we supposedly set for politicians. Should we expect more?

Or should I remind my reader of former Rep Gaetz (R-FL), who was up before the House’s Ethics Committee before he resigned? Former Rep and Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) who resigned after charges of misconduct? Former Rep Eric Swalwell (D-CA), who joined DeRemer in the ranks of those who committed misconduct, but in the division of sex? Rep Tony Gonzalez (R-TX), who resigned only after repeated accusations of fornication with an aide who later committed suicide, with strong evidence for the fornication?

President Donald J. Trump (R)?

The nation is not under an obvious and imminent threat of extinction, and thus running out the ethically challenged has not been pursued with enthusiasm, prior to being elected, by the Party; indeed, President Trump makes it a practice to pardon both the convicted and the indicted, thus indebting them to himself. That, and the gathering of centralized power to the Executive, is attracting the mistake-prone and sordid-minded to positions of power; and, as these folks are practiced at convincing their victims to give them money, honor, and virtue, they are often competent at collecting the votes necessary to elevate them as well. More importantly, the Republicans long ago dispensed with the gatekeeper function of the Party, and now it seems it’s the Democrats’ turn.

And while I hesitate to splash the innocent with shit, it’s often hard to say who’s what until the judge’s gavel hits the desk. For example, consider this from the Platner debacle in Maine:

Or as a Maine political operative notes,

One operative who works in Maine noted “the irony of people who have made their political careers decrying a rigged political system now trying to rig the political system for Troy Jackson.” The operative said it wasn’t doing Jackson any favors, either, calling it “horrible optics” to have a candidate tied to someone who had to step aside.

Yes, we’ll see more, much more of this. It’ll be a benefit of voters keep track of the unacceptable, don’t vote for them, and spread the word.

HE’S A MONSTROUS ANCHOR, STILL

Yes, President Trump continues to be a massive drag on Republicans in most States, as flying his flag of incompetency holds little appeal for independent voters, and on certain subjects even Republicans are edging away, and sometimes they even reveal anger at him. For example,

… Rep. Carlos Giménez (R[-FL]) on Sunday said efforts to deport Haitians after the Supreme Court upheld the Trump administration’s decision to rescind temporary protected status (TPS) would be a “mistake.”

“In the case of Haiti, without a doubt, Haiti is a failed state, and I think that deporting Haitians that are under TPS right now back to Haiti would be a huge mistake,” Giménez said during a Sunday appearance on CBS News’s “Face the Nation.”

“I mean, that’s the reason why TPS was established to begin with, just like with Venezuelans. If Venezuelans lose their TPS status — which they have, too — we should reinstate that because of the devastation caused by these earthquakes that happened last week,” he added, noting the U.S. should act as a safeguard to those in need. [The Hill]

Rep Giménez almost sounds like a Democrat, doesn’t he? The drive to expel immigrants, no doubt spearheaded by the self-important and obsessed senior aide Stephen Miller, is an example of the White House’s deafness when it comes to a sane foreign policy – and acquiring necessary votes and building valuable soft power. The President should provide the central decision-making to balance competing interests, and he’s a complete failure. He may not even realize it, being a mere businessman and not a canny political leader.

Another example is the recent spew of President Trump regarding the old topic of Greenland at the World Economic Forum:

US President Donald Trump has said he is seeking “immediate negotiations” to acquire Greenland for national security reasons – and insisted he “won’t use force”.

His repeated demands to take control of the territory have been rejected by Greenland’s leaders, and by Nato member Denmark, of which the island is a semi-autonomous territory.

This has led to a wider diplomatic row, with Trump initially threatening additional trade tariffs against a number of European allies for opposing his plans. [BBC]

And then there’s the recent breakdown of the Trump’s War ceasefire, as reported by CNN:

• Fresh strikes rock Mideast: US forces struck several more locations in coastal Iran today, according to Iranian state media, while Tehran said it fired missiles at a US base in Jordan. The US military has not confirmed the latest exchange.

• Diplomatic scramble: Sources say mediators are working to get Washington and Tehran back to the negotiating table as the renewed fighting further erodes a fragile ceasefire agreement. The last two days have seen waves of US strikes and Iranian attacks on other US military bases in the region.

Whether Trump’s negotiators provoked this through incompetency, or if the Iranians are playing the President as being soft-headed, this isn’t going to play well to independent voters, even those who want to give him the benefit of the doubt. It’s obvious even to the most bone-headed: he promised to keep the country out of war, and instead he started a war and can’t finish it, while continually boasting and lying about it. Prices of many things, from oil to fertilizer, leap towards the sky, and some may never come down again.

EXCUSE ME, BUT YOUR BATHROOM IS MAKING BEEPING NOISES

Don’t forget, when your food is literally trying to kill you, it was Trump’s minions who ran off with the FDA and won’t return it. You can be all mad about regulations, but when you’re squatting front of that occupied bathroom trying to avoid public humiliation, indulging in anti-regulation screeds is more than a little hollow.

IMPEACHMENT IS NOT SO GOOD

Because that’ll just put J. D. Vance in charge, and his inclination to repeat the praise of Trump like a mimic does not fill me with confidence.

FLAUNT IT IF YOU’VE GOT IT!

But if you’ve only caught it, keep it to yourself.

• I’d hate to be a Texas voter this season, because the Senate candidates from both major Parties seem repugnant. James Talarico (D), as noted here, keeps saying weird shit, but state AG Ken Paxton (R) may be taking the prize for sheer tenacity:
  

  MAGA firebrand Ken Paxton spent Fourth of July weekend with his new lover in Europe—far from Texas, where he is running for Senate.

  Paxton, 63, was spotted sightseeing alongside his mistress, Christian influencer Tracy Duhon, 58, according to footage obtained by the Daily Mail. The pair was recorded “galivanting” in dressy attire near the Westminster Bridge and the London Eye. [Daily Beast]

  So much for making up with the estranged wife. But opponent Talarico seems to have fumbled the response:

  Paxton’s opponent, Democratic State Rep. James Talarico, criticized Paxton for going on a holiday in Britain while America was celebrating its independence.

  “Americans celebrated 250 years of independence from Britain this weekend,” Talarico’s campaign wrote in a statement. “Ken Paxton spent it with the British.”

  Predictable. Standard. I would have said “I was thrilled to spend Independence Day in the United States,” and then let the crickets fill in the blanks.

  It’s true that Texans do have a collection of independents, as well as the Libertarian candidate, to select from for the to-be-open Senate seat, but so far I haven’t heard of any of them leaping out to a lead. Too bad. Both parties need a fright to remind them they’re not going to remain a big fish in a small pond if they don’t put up respectable leaders for the Senate. Not that these two are doomed, but that’s how to bet – on both of them.

  In other unfortunate state AG Paxton news, he who enforces the law may have been caught breaking the election laws, according to The Texas Tribune, leading to this chuckle-inducing quote:

  Campaign spokesperson Madison Cercy did not answer the questions from the news organizations. Instead, she issued a statement saying that the attorney general has been “a national leader on election integrity, with a long record of defending Texas elections.” Cercy said that “attempting to insinuate otherwise and tear him down with a baseless, lie-filled tabloid story is not real reporting.”

  How very Karoline Leavitt of her. For those readers who’d like a list of Paxton’s scandals, here’s Steve Benen with a list that’s only slightly out of date.

• In Maine, the eye of the storm is on Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner (D-ME), accused of, and denying, rape. While he may still repudiate the nomination by the end of today [he did – Hue], fulfilling my prediction at the above link, reportedly he and his team are hanging on in hopes of influencing the selection of his replacement:
  

  Graham Platner and a small team of strategists behind his candidacy are trying to navigate an exit from the consequential Senate race in Maine without entirely squandering the movement he built, people familiar with the matter said, rather than digging in or trying to find a path forward for his candidacy.

  “We’ve said from the very beginning that this campaign was never about Graham but about a movement of working people united to take back power,” Ben Chin, the campaign manager for Platner, said in a message to supporters on Wednesday. [CNN]

  It seems the establishment Democrats are less than charmed, perhaps because they lost to someone who has, himself, thrown away an opportunity:

  “While we may be frustrated with Graham Platner’s continued efforts to manipulate this process, we are so thankful for his supporters and all of their efforts to defeat Susan Collins — they are a vital part of our Party and deserve to participate in an open process to select Platner’s replacement,” [executive director of Maine’s Democratic Party Devon Murphy-Anderson] wrote on social media.

  The real trick here is that the Democrats cannot withdraw the nomination; Platner must repudiate it himself. Worse yet, he must do it by 13 July, and then the Party would have until 27 July to submit a new nominee.

  So far, it sounds like turmoil to me. WaPo’s Carine Hajjar shakes her fist, demanding the gatekeepers stop letting the unacceptable into the Democratic Party:

  Yet in shedding their old polish, Democrats along the way also dropped all sense of standards, too. Candidates rarely tick all the boxes on ideology and image, and a few shallow scratches would have revealed deep flaws in Platner’s candidacy. Put aside the long list of personal scandals. The “oysterman” — which, by the way, isn’t a term actual oyster farmers use — turned out not to be the working-class kid he portrayed onstage. The facade started to crack somewhere between revelations about his private schooling, his dad helping out with his mortgage and his mom’s restaurant being his biggest client.

  In incumbent Senator Collins (R) Maine has an experienced politico, but one so old she may have a failing intellect and/or health, or is falling out of sync with today’s America. It’s a pity the Democrats couldn’t field someone with distinction, and was reduced to finding a “fighter,” who may actually be little more than a poseur, if one with a Marine background.

  [Later] And Graham Platner has, indeed, dropped out of the Maine Senate race, late on 8 July. Reflecting what seems to be demographic strains within the Democratic Party,

  Even as he withdrew from the race, Platner remained insistent that the accusations against him, as well as other controversies dating back to October, were false and part of a larger campaign “by the establishment to put structural pressure on us.”

  “We live in a political system that is not built for normal people. It is a system that is built structurally to make sure that movements like ours cannot flourish, that if they begin to succeed, they can be crushed,” Platner said.

  Without commenting on whether the incidents he insists are fiction are so, I do have to say that ‘normal’ people aren’t always the best choice for US Congress; I’d be more comfortable with distinguished or extraordinary people. I haven’t studied what Mr Platner had to say, or how it was interpreted; then again, I don’t take the right seriously when they call him a Nazi, based on a disowned tattoo, or a communist.

  But I do ask how Platner prepared for the job. Not for the campaign, but for the job. Does he have a relevant degree in government, or relevant work experience? Or even just some insightful commentary? Being a member of Congress is a huge job these days, and rightfully so. His talk of structural pressure raises a red flag for me: it’s a call to victimhood. So far in this century, those who invoke victimhood appear to just  be out for power, and have often been found to be inventing some aspect of the victimhood, from membership to its very experience, to justify bizarre claims or recommendations.

  Platner’s background as a Marine and oyster farmer endeared him to many Mainers, I think, as it suggests that they remain in control of their futures. But by fixating on that and his “fighter” personality, and not expressing doubt concerning his potential performance in that role, they became vulnerable to anyone with charisma. I was concerned about lack of qualifications, but since I don’t live there, I figured I’d just watch. And now I’ve watched him go down in flames – but quite early. The Democrats still have time to rue their first choice and make a second choice.

• In Nebraska, the rumors that Democratic nominee for the Senate Cindy Burbank would repudiate her nomination and endorse Dan Osborn (I-NE) have yet to be fulfilled.

The Most Exciting Dachsund Races In Politics

Texas? Maine? Nebraska? Alaska? How about the dark horse, Mississippi?

Have a good weekend, folks.

Microbarom:

ADMIN NOTE

WordPress, the software powering this blog, is not entirely free of bugs. One of the Campaign Updates has the wrong date stamp, and I missed it, so now I have to reference Campaign Updates that don’t appear correct, yet are.

My apologies.

DO YOU REALLY WANT TO FOCUS THE PUBLIC LIKE THIS?

President Trump sure loves a circus, however he defines it, and this may be something that impressed him in his youth:

President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that Republicans will hold their first-ever national convention ahead of November’s midterm elections, an unusual event aimed at boosting turnout in races that will decide whether the party maintains control of Congress.

The convention will be held in Dallas on Sept. 9 and 10.

Although both major parties traditionally hold blockbuster conventions during presidential campaigns, Trump has long floated the idea of a similar gathering this year to focus voters’ attention on a sprawling collection of House and Senate races. [AP]

Ah, a political convention. Fanatical fans, er, delegates. Speeches, clapping, adoration, and the learned analysis afterwards. How can a man with pathological narcissism and probably dementia resist? It’ll be just like the conventions of his youth: drama, horse-trading, maybe a murder or two…

However, reminding voters of the President and Party that have brought economic ruin, artificial intelligence, data centers, and war down on their heads doesn’t strike me as a wise approach to the midterms. But he loves that sweet and delicious attention, no matter how much it costs Republicans.

So is this a convention that’ll cost Republicans a Senate seat or two, or will the Democrats’ shift to the left, with Mamdani’s New York City victory and progressive candidates who don’t realize that left extremism has no more appeal to the independents than right extremism, negate the potential pickup?

HOW ABOUT VOTING AT ALL?

Will the SAVE Act become law? Speaker Johnson (D-LA) claims so, but retiring Senator Tillis (R-NC) strongly disagrees:

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) says the SAVE America Act, President Trump’s No. 1 legislative priority, is “dead” on Capitol Hill because there is not enough time to change election laws before the midterms — even if Senate Republicans muster 60 votes for the legislation, which is unlikely.

“Unless they do the work to get to the 60 votes, they know it’s dead, and so all this is theater,” Tillis told The News & Observer, repeating arguments he has made in Washington calling on GOP colleagues to move on to other priorities. [The Hill]

BACK ON THE RANCH

The barn full of old news is thataway.

• Fox News Polling is giving Georgia incumbent Senator Ossoff (D) a big lead of 56% – 43% to Trump endorsee and GOP nominee Rep Mike Collins (R). The Senator may have been considered vulnerable prior to the mid-term season, but so far the GOP pick is looking like a mistake. Then again, the other two major candidates, Rep Carter (R) and former football coach Derek Dooley (R), also struck me as unsuited to the position as well.
• 

  On The Issues: Rep Hinson (R-IA).

  Fox News Polling is giving Democratic nominee Iowa State Representative Josh Turek (D) a four point lead of 50% – 46% over GOP nominee and Trump-endorsed US Rep Ashley Hinson (R), just outside of the margin of error of ±3 points. This race should be interesting as Hinson is not as far-right as many of her fellows in other Senate races; perhaps that’s why she attracted Trump’s endorsement, although he’s mostly attracted to being right rather than being a leader.

• In Michigan State Senator McMorrow (D), last seen trailing badly in the Democratic primary in third place behind El-Sayed (D) and Rep Stevens (D), has dropped out. CNN’s reporting includes
  

  McMorrow’s exit ahead of the early August primary doesn’t just reflect her own struggles, but also an emphasis among many Democrats to stop El-Sayed, out of fear he would be a weaker general election candidate against former Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican.

  McMorrow, in a video on X, touted her achievements as majority whip of the state Senate and urged her supporters to “elect Democrats up and down the ticket” in November, though she did not endorse either of her former opponents.

  “Whoever wins this primary on August 4 will have my full support,” she said.

  McMorrow had earlier rejected Senator Schumer (D) as Democratic leader in the Senate, so it’s not clear to me why CNN thinks McMorrow dropping out will benefit the establishment candidate, Rep Stevens. Rep Stevens did pick up the immediate endorsements of Michigan AG Dana Nessel and of EMILY’s List, an abortion rights group.

  But suggesting Michigan independent voters might go for former Rep Mike Rogers (R) over El-Sayed is a bit of stretch, too, as Rogers will be closely identified with President Trump, whose chronic mendacity is becoming more and more widely known and loathed. I’d be more concerned about a progressivism that may not appeal to Michigan voters, resulting in their absence from the polls.

• In Massachusetts Rep Moulton (D), Senator Markey’s (D) main rival in the upcoming primary, may have mis-stepped on the transgender issue, if Leon Sapir has the proper numbers. While the impact may appear small, when one trails in a race even the smallest mistake can be catastrophe.
• In Alaska, naked intimidation is the order of the day, according to NBC News:
  

  State and federal prosecutors in Alaska are investigating whether the campaign for a U.S. Senate candidate who has the same name as the Republican incumbent could be part of a conspiracy to confuse voters, two people with knowledge of the investigations told NBC News.

  Despite this …

  Just this week, the Alaska Supreme Court ruled that Dan J. Sullivan can stay on the state’s August primary ballot. The state’s elections division had initially disqualified the challenger from the ballot, with Elections Director Carol Beecher alleging that the challenger filed to run “with a purpose to confuse or mislead” voters.

  It looks to me like the second Dan Sullivan has been given the big O K. It is true that, in the cited article, he has a shit-eatin’ grin on his face, but please don’t convict on the count of his teeth.

• It’s chaos in Maine as the Democratic nominee for the seat currently held by Senator Collins, oyster farmer and Marine veteran Graham Platner (D), is now being accused of rape.
  

  A woman who said she previously dated Graham Platner, the 41-year-old ex-Marine and Democratic nominee in Maine for the U.S. Senate seat, alleged in interviews with The Washington Post that he sexually assaulted her in her home near the end of 2021.

  Jenny Racicot said Platner showed up at her home intoxicated after she sent him a text that she says he misinterpreted as an invitation to come over. She told The Post he entered her home through an unlocked door and then immediately climbed on top of her on her couch as she repeatedly told him no. She said he went on to have nonconsensual intercourse with her in her bedroom. [WaPo]

  The title of this TPM article says it all:

  Dam Breaks As Elected Dems Withdraw Support, Urge Platner to Drop Out of Maine Senate Race

  Are the allegations true, or is this a political hit job? And who’s the backer?

  Either way, there are three groups party to this nomination.

  1. The backers of Platner. I take this to be the younger segment of the Maine Democratic Party, who are generally more progressive; this also includes out of state endorsers, though, such as Senator Sanders (I-VT) and Senator Warren (D-MA). For the Maine Democrats, this may embitter them, but if they’re serious about being involved in politics, regardless of the flavor, this is a learning opportunity: Screen your candidates and keep the adoration in check. The former has been done successfully, intermittently, by both parties; adoration, as irrational and destructive as it can be, is a near-constant of politics, I’ve noted, even among members of my own extended family. But will the embittered Platner backers vote for a replacement candidate? Hard to say. And this event does suggest the Democrats nation-wide need to strengthen the gatekeeper functionality of the Party.
  2. The Democratic establishment, who backed Governor Mills (D). Did they decide to take back the process and dictate a nominee, or are they merely the folks who’ll have to clean this up through some sort of pre-election operation? Investigative journalists will be examining the public record of the accuser, and that may tell us if this sordid tale is sadly true, or if an angry Democratic establishment decided to remove him.
  3. The Republican Party. If the Platner backers are embittered, the Republicans must be bitterly frustrated. Here’s right wing pundit Erick Erickson’s assessment of the Maine Senate race from 29 May:
     

     Graham Platner, the Nazi turned Communist, in Maine, has hired a bunch of mercenaries not personally invested in him and a bunch of far-left progressives who see everything in terms of warfare. In Maine, most voters pride themselves on independence, and they will reject a Communist and his communist staff who believe you’re either a communist or the enemy.

     While trusting any pundit, including me, is a problematic conundrum, and Erickson has a certain reckless love of the hyperbolic adjective, Erickson’s core assessment is probably more accurate than Platner’s backers would like. Platner had far too many problems, and this will be, in my assessment, the straw that breaks the camel’s back, as well as the Republican Party’s hopes for an easy Maine Senate victory. Honestly, I’ve been watching Platner stumble from one gopher hole to the next badger hole, feeling his odds were getting worse and worse, and now the Republicans will watch in disbelief as he repudiates the nomination on 7 or 8 July; soon after, Governor Mills will be selected for the nomination, and if that’s not done in an offensive manner (see: Kamala Harris), we’ll see an old politico beating up old politico action, which will have a 50% chance of resulting in a Senator Mills. This, in the end, may actually be fortunate for the Democrats.

APPENDIX A.1.x.y.z

Perhaps Maine will move back to the Likely to Flip column, but that’s not entirely clear just yet.

I’ve been ignoring the World Cup, not being a soccer (football) fan, so I’ve only been peripherally aware that one of the stars of the USA team had been given a red card, which presumably disqualifies him from the next game, or maybe the tournament. I recall even seeing a CNN headline stating that the red card would not be withdrawn or cancelled.

But, to tell the truth, this is not a big surprise:

‘Unprecedented, incomprehensible, and unjustifiable’: Soccer world stunned by FIFA’s Balogun decision [CNN]

More detail here:

If you missed this news break yesterday, here is a quick breakdown to catch you up.

During the USA’s Round of 32 game against Bosnia and Herzegovina, striker Folarin Balogun was sent off for an accidental foul on an opponent. He didn’t mean to do what he did, but his foot did rake down a defender’s leg which could have caused a serious injury.

Anyway, off he went and FIFA pointed to a rule in its laws that stated Balogun would miss the next game as he serves his mandatory one-match suspension. US Soccer said it couldn’t appeal the ban and started working up a plan on how to beat Belgium tonight without its main goalscorer.

Only yesterday, FIFA decided to suspend the one-match ban for a year, allowing Balogun to play the Round of 16 match and the rest of the tournament. As soon as the news broke, most people guessed what might have happened. And it appears they were right.

Donald Trump thanked FIFA for “reversing a great injustice” on Truth Social and a source familiar with the matter told CNN that the president spoke with FIFA President Gianni Infantino and asked him to review the call. [CNN/Sports]

The crowd stares in disbelief.

And if the USA team wins?

Trump will take the credit. He used his position to pressure a vulnerable official, the FIFA President, into giving the USA team special treatment, and, to his mind, cheating and lying are simply stratagems to be employed at all times to gain advantage.

He doesn’t think about long term consequences, which is the leading reason for being honest, for following rules. In this scenario, the world becomes more and more embittered towards the USA, and Trump will ignore it, not recognize it, anything to avoid accepting a critique of his behavior that should have been delivered by his parents. The value of the process is zero, in his mind; everything’s a trophy for him to collect, and the value of the process is disregarded.

So now his fingerprints are all over the World Cup.

Readers paying attention may remember I was a little confused as to whether the Trump family was doing well with their crypto investments. This report suggests that they are being successful:

President Donald Trump reported more than $1.4 billion in cryptocurrency-related income in his latest annual financial disclosure released Tuesday, with digital assets emerging as the largest source of his personal earnings during his second term.

The 927-page disclosure, covering 2025 and filed with the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, shows Trump earned more than $500 million from World Liberty Financial, the cryptocurrency company he co-founded in 2024 with his sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. He also reported another $635 million in income tied to sales of the $TRUMP meme coin. [MS NOW]

That opens the question of whether MAGA will stick with Trump, and how MAGA investors have done with the President’s memecoin, $TRUMP. Here’s a lifetime chart:

Source: CoinMarketCap.

From greater than $40/coin at the beginning to July 5th’s $1.71, it’s been downhill since then, and so it has been for the Trump investors. Here’s another report driving the point home.

But will that affect support for him from MAGA?

Probably not. Most MAGA investors won’t monitor financial disclosures, they won’t trust liberal sources such as MS NOW, and conservative sources will not mention this inconvenient fact.

All Trump has to fear are MAGA leaders who are still angry at suppression of the Epstein Files. If they choose to pick this disclosure up and run with it, it might be disaster for Trump’s allies.

And cryptocurrency claims more victims.

Which might be considered redundant in some circles.

My family coat of arms is fancier than your coat of arms!

Dragonwyck (1946) is a dated but tense horror drama exploring the general societal view of agnosticism in 1844. Young Miranda Wells, raised by her strictly observant parents in Connecticut, receives an opportunity to visit her distant cousin, Nicholas Van Ryn, in Hudson, NY. There she discovers he reigns over his plantation almost like a king as patroon.

But Van Ryn faces opposition, not only from the tenant farmers who seek the right of not working for him, but from local Dr. Turner. Turner and Van Ryn have a history of mutual antagonism, but when Van Ryn’s wife, Johanna, takes a turn for the worse, Van Ryn calls upon Dr. Turner for help.

It doesn’t go well, and Johanna, a virtual exile in her own home, passes away. Soon, Van Ryn and Miranda are courting, and we discover what an agnostic in this age may yearn for, if not God: an heir. This is not an unfamiliar goal for the men of this age, but Van Ryn, unrestrained by God, societal expectations, or anything else, makes it part of the narcissism that characterizes his life, and failures at this ultimate goal loom large.

Soon, we’re part of the spiral of madness in which God has a plan for all of us fails to act as a release valve for Van Ryn. Miranda, being but a female, aggravated my Arts Editor as well as myself with her learned helplessness, although women in that era in America were not expected to assert their opinions. It’s a bit of a blotch on the emotional character of the story.

But, overall, it’s not a bad story at all. Well-acted, excellent cinematography and sets, the agnosticism as a path into self-destructive narcissism is an interesting byway on an otherwise painfully righteous path often ascribed to the era.

This is an atypical horror story that we found fascinating. And if that doesn’t lure you into watching, at least you Vinnie Price completists should see this, as Price has the lead role.

The association between betting and criminal behavior is a very long-running theme in human civilizations, and here we are doing it all over again:

Supporters of Kalshi and its biggest competitor, Polymarket, have defended the sites as game-like platforms for following and perhaps profiting off the news. But critics like Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut) have said they are creating a more “dystopian world” by helping people gamble on life-and-death crises and military assaults in a way that could incentivize political violence.

“This is American commercial immorality on steroids,” Murphy said in an interview. “Once events that involve good and evil simply become a financial product, I don’t know how right and wrong matters any longer. … People shouldn’t be rooting for people to die because they placed a bet.” [WaPo]

Senator Murphy, above, didn’t go nearly far enough. It’s not in the least difficult to envision a bettor, having made a potentially lucrative bet on the timing of the death of a prominent person, whether celebrity or politician, then moving to ensure potential becomes reality. That falls into the corruption category, because an implicit assumption of gambling is that the focus of a bet, such as rolling dice, is free of undue influence; that is, no one is knowing or influencing the future with reference to the focus of the bet.

Some readers may protest that Kalshi and Polymarket are not gambling sites, but predictive market sites. In my view, waddling and quacking usually makes for ducks; critters camouflaged to look like different and, usually, dangerous critters, while legitimate exceptions, are rare and must pass assiduous examination before acceptance as exceptions. These sites offer monetary prizes for predicting some event while tendering money. So far as I can see, Kalshi and Polymarket offer the same service as do gambling palaces and dens.

And enable the same corruption as do straight up gambling dens.

For the record, the WaPo article does mention the above scenario:

Lawmakers have worried that allowing death-related trades could offer fatal incentives; an assassin, for instance, could plan and then profit off the date of a victim’s death. “There’s a reason we don’t let people take fire insurance policies out on [other people’s homes] — because it would incent arson,” [Amanda Fischer, director at the financial advocacy group Better Markets] said.

In a decade, as people have sense knocked into their skulls, I expect predictive market sites will just go away. But don’t, ah, bet on it.

Or am I just finding an excuse to exhibit this North of the Border video? Feel free to skip to the end to view the finished product, but this guy does fairly good narration.

Incidentally, at one job in the far past, my colleagues said the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse were disease, war, famine, and Jerry, who headed up the support department and was famously cynical.

Nicholas Grossman comments on the latest war strikes in the Strait of Failure Hormuz:

This isn’t a return to full-scale war, but it isn’t peace either. It is a new phase in the conflict: the fight to control Hormuz. The United States already lost the fight Trump started; it failed to achieve his declared goal of the Iranian regime’s unconditional surrender, or, barring that, Tehran’s acceptance of stringent nuclear restrictions. Now the conflict is over whether Iran controls Hormuz and can charge fees, or if the U.S. can restore the pre-war status quo, with ships transiting freely.

The two sides are making incompatible claims about the MOU’s contents. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that under the agreement, Iran has sole responsibility for the strait. Meanwhile, the Trump administration asserts that the U.S. will not allow Iran to “illegally control an international waterway.”

The MOU itself is ambiguous enough to allow for either interpretation. But that’s the problem: this core issue was never worked out. The MOU was essentially a negotiated agreement to negotiate an agreement, punting all major points of contention to future talks. [MS NOW]

This is the sort of loose-ends that I’d expect arrogant amateurs, telling themselves for years that their predecessors were overstaffed and underqualified, to leave behind. Now putting innocents in danger, needlessly expending munitions.

It’s a bad sign for the Strait of Hormuz and all the nations in the area. Well, except for Iran. Whatever you think of theocracies – I despise them – it doesn’t keep them from developing expertise in the areas of diplomacy and negotiation.

The summer blooms bleating for attention.

Tiger lily, lurking for prey.

Waiting for the de-icing fluid.

The Three Stooges plus manager.

Another in the line of waving hands frantically for attention:

President Donald Trump in recent months has cultivated a side project: counting the number of trees in a public park across the street from the White House.

Under Trump’s plans for Lafayette Square, which he has previously described as “the entrance to the White House,” the public park would feature 47 trees, matching his status as the nation’s 47th president, according to two people who spoke on the condition of anonymity to detail the administration’s plans for the park. The trees would all be maples, a favorite of the president’s. [WaPo]

Sure, that’s congruent with the President claiming you have to slap your name on things if you want to be remembered, if one accepts 47 as an alternate name, or symbol, for Trump. But it’s also a way to get the attention of the Divine, as mentioned earlier in this thread. Self-glorification, for the fools who’ll believe it, will get the Divine’s attention as much as achievement, or, at least for Christians, service to the unfortunate.

This may seem a bit single-minded, but the President does have that reputation, an example being the Central Park Five incident, in which he insisted on the guilt of five boys in a violent assault incident, even after they had been exonerated.

But it is what it is: a symptom of a mental illness inappropriate in an American President.

From March, Scott Hodge has a suggestion for covering our annual deficit:

The menu of solutions to close this gap is just as depressing: slash benefits and services or raise taxes. But one option could generate substantial revenue while making the tax system fairer: ending the tax exemption for America’s massive nonprofit business sector.

Many “charities” have become big businesses. While numerous benevolent charities do wonderful work, the industry is dominated by some of the top companies in America operating largely free from the tax obligations that burden their for-profit competitors. The commercial revenue generated by these nonprofits totaled $2.8 trillion in 2023, nearly three times the amount nonprofits receive from donations and government grants.

The warning signs were there in 1909 when Congress exempted charitable organizations from the corporate income tax. Although lawmakers intended to protect small fraternal societies providing insurance to widows and tending to the poor, they also exempted enterprises such as mutual lending and insurance companies, thus opening the door to exempting other business-like entities. [WaPo]

This is the sort of thing where the initial and continuing evaluation approach are attempts to discredit it. To me, the problem requiring a lot of thought is how to reliably distinguish between charitable and non-charitable revenue streams.

But I think it’s worth at least investigating further, and to ask whether or not charities really should not be paying taxes.