Nicholas Grossman comments on the latest war strikes in the Strait of Failure Hormuz:
This isn’t a return to full-scale war, but it isn’t peace either. It is a new phase in the conflict: the fight to control Hormuz. The United States already lost the fight Trump started; it failed to achieve his declared goal of the Iranian regime’s unconditional surrender, or, barring that, Tehran’s acceptance of stringent nuclear restrictions. Now the conflict is over whether Iran controls Hormuz and can charge fees, or if the U.S. can restore the pre-war status quo, with ships transiting freely.
The two sides are making incompatible claims about the MOU’s contents. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that under the agreement, Iran has sole responsibility for the strait. Meanwhile, the Trump administration asserts that the U.S. will not allow Iran to “illegally control an international waterway.”
The MOU itself is ambiguous enough to allow for either interpretation. But that’s the problem: this core issue was never worked out. The MOU was essentially a negotiated agreement to negotiate an agreement, punting all major points of contention to future talks. [MS NOW]
This is the sort of loose-ends that I’d expect arrogant amateurs, telling themselves for years that their predecessors were overstaffed and underqualified, to leave behind. Now putting innocents in danger, needlessly expending munitions.
It’s a bad sign for the Strait of Hormuz and all the nations in the area. Well, except for Iran. Whatever you think of theocracies – I despise them – it doesn’t keep them from developing expertise in the areas of diplomacy and negotiation.
