The 2022 Senate Campaign: Updates

Yes, there’s a news stream. It’s behind the old Potter place. Why do you ask?

  • In Connecticut, as they await the August 9th primary, a Republican-sponsored poll gave this result: McLaughlin’s poll for Jordan found [incumbent Democratic Senator] Blumenthal with an 11-point lead over his closest Republican challenger, Themis Klarides, similar to the results of an Emerson College poll conducted for WTNH in May. But respondents were unfavorable when asked if Blumenthal “deserves” to be reelected. [WSHU] Maybe not all politics is local, but a big chunk qualifies.
  • Senator Moran’s On The Issues summation.

    The Democratic nominee for the Kansas Senate seat currently occupied by Senator Moran (R) is minister and former mayor Mark Holland. He is thought to have little chance, but here’s an “among the voters” piece from KCUR. On The Issues rates Senator Moran as quite the extremist, which may enhance Holland’s chances. My latest on Kansas here.

  • Bad news continues in Pennsylvania for Dr. and candidate Mehmet Oz (R), as his opponent for the open Senate seat, Lt. Gov. Fetterman (D), has won another poll. A Center Street PAC poll show Fetterman ahead 52% – 38%. A key observation that will apply to many Republican candidates: Almost all voters know Oz, but they don’t like him. Oz’s un-favorability levels are staggering among unaffiliated voters and Democrats, and his Favorability among Republicans is barely above neutral. This suggests a huge disconnect between PA GOP primary voters and the general electorate, but then voting for the inexperienced fool’s gold hawker Oz in the first place, apparently based on his endorsement by former President Trump, demonstrates the deeply fallen nature of the PA GOP.
  • Center Street PAC remains a polling organization of unknown quality, but it’s worth noting that their latest Ohio Senate poll, a Republican seat in which the incumbent is retiring, has Rep Tim Ryan (D) leading lawyer and author J. D. Vance (R) 49% – 38% among likely voters. If SurveyUSA or another A-rated pollster released numbers like that for reddish Ohio, I’d be happy, as Vance is not really qualified for the seat. For the moment, it merits a contingency “if accurate”, but suggests Republican arrogance may be turning off Ohio voters. This would be another invalidation of the Republican wave thesis that has been such a favorite among the timid pundit set.
  • A-rated SurveyUSA has a poll out showing that the Missouri Senate race between State AG Schmitt (R) and former nurse and heiress Valentine (D), taken in late July, prior to the primary that selected each, has Schmitt up by six. As noted before, a poll prior to that one showed Schmitt with a thirteen point lead. How about a poll since the primary? For reference, in 2018 Senator Hawley (R) won his general election by roughly six points.
  • In North Carolina and the competition for an empty Senate seat, currently held by Republicans, Cheri Beasley (D) is finding the climb steep against Rep Ted Budd (R). She’s down by 5 points, according to a Civitas poll. FiveThirtyEight does not appear to rate Civitas, so it’s difficult to gauge this poll’s credibility.

Previous allegations, unsubstantiated as they are, are here.

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About Hue White

Former BBS operator; software engineer; cat lackey.

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