What? More news?
- Professor Richardson reminds me that Senator Grassley (R-IA) made noises about presiding over the counting of Electoral Votes on January 5th, 2020, and thus replacing VP Mike Pence, who had already made clear that he had no intention in participating in the former President’s alleged illegal scheme to stop the counting of the Electoral votes. This was later walked back by Grassley’s staff. Why is this important? His opponent in this year’s election, Mike Franken, might be well advised to use this information to tie Grassley to the disgraced former President, who is taking destructive body blows from the House investigating committee. If Grassley is successfully associated with a scheme to overturn a democratic and fair election, Iowa voters may decide they’ve had enough of Grassley.
- The release of the report LOST, NOT STOLEN: The Conservative Case that Trump Lost and Biden Won the 2020 Presidential Election, by various main-line conservatives who exhaustively analyze and reject all the Trumpian claims concerning the 2020 Presidential election, may or may not have an impact on the Senate elections featuring Trump allies.
- Yay, Nevada has a poll: Senator Cortez Masto (D) leads challenger Adam Laxalt (R), 44-41, with 6 points more planning to vote independent, and 9% are undecided. This is an Emerson College Polling result; FiveThirtyEight considers Emerson College Polling to be an A- outfit. This lead seems precarious.
- Yay, Washington has a poll, too: Senator Murray (D) leads challenger Tiffany Smiley (R) by 18 points, according to SurveyUSA. This pollster gets an ‘A’ grade from FiveThirtyEight. Smiley has quite the hill to climb. Interestingly, she rates as a moderate, at least according to By The Issues (see Washington link, above), so I’m not sure if the far-right extremists refuse to vote for her, and/or if the independents are so disgusted with the Republicans that she’s catching the blowback.
- Georgia continues to get lots of coverage: the Georgia AARP conducted a poll showing incumbent Senator Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker by three points, 50-47. Those are high numbers for this early in the race. I have no idea if Georgia AARP polling is respectable or not.
- I somehow missed that newcomer Natalie James (D) won the Democratic primary and thus the right to challenge incumbent Senator John Boozman (R) in Arkansas. No polls noted as of yet, so no new drama.
- In Iowa, a Des Moines Register/MediaCom poll gives incumbent Senator Grassley (R) an eight point lead, leaving challenger Michael Franken (D) quite a hill to climb. However, FiveThirtyEight admits to no knowledge concerning this pollster, so it’s difficult to guess as to its accuracy. Franken’s challenge is certainly less than Grassley’s 35 point average victory margin.
- Finally, my current summary of seats in danger. Democrats: Senator Masto in Nevada may be the most in peril, with a 3 point lead over Adam Laxalt, although Warnock of Georgia may or may not be in trouble, and a few Democrats remain unknowns due to unconcluded GOP primaries, such as Kelly of Arizona. Republican seats in danger or worse: Pennsylvania (incumbent retiring), Ohio (incumbent retiring), North Carolina (incumbent retiring), Johnson of Wisconsin, maybe even Lee of Utah, shockingly Missouri (incumbent retiring), and Iowa, as Senator Grassley may only be up by five – eight points and has potentially very bad news looming on the horizon.
Previous, old, tattered updates here.
