Just another entry in a long dynasty. Like dinosaurs, but less graceful.
- An update on Senator Graham’s (R-SC) proposed legislation for a 15 week abortion ban: The Democrats are jumping all over it, and the Republicans are expressing dismay. Whether this translates to energizing voters for the pro-choice or the pro-life position remains to be seen, but clearly the Democrats believe this is an opportunity.
- There are two new polls for Pennsylvania. A CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker gives Lt Governor Fetterman (D) a 52% – 48% lead over challenger Dr. Oz Mehmet (R), with a margin of error of 3.8%. YouGov has a B+ rating from FiveThirtyEight. A Monmouth University poll gives Fetterman a 49% – 39% lead, with a 4.0% margin of error, a result more in line with polls other than Trafalgar. Monmouth is an A rated pollster by FiveThirtyEight.
- A- rated Emerson College Polling is calling the Nevada race a dead heat.
- Far-right pundit and radio host Erick Erickson has returned to insisting that “it’s the economy, stupid,” a position he had momentarily stepped away from a week ago. It may mean the lead conservatives reprimanded him, or maybe he just had second thoughts. The reason I bring this up is that in the previous Senate update, I had mentioned that the termination of Putin’s War would accrue to Biden’s account, and Democratic candidates would benefit from it politically. But, since Erickson brings it up, much of the current economic uproar, from inflation to supply line issues to simple food shortages, can be attributed to Putin’s invasion, and his deliberate destruction of Ukraine’s food production capacity and even Ukrainian produce. The termination of the war, while too late to have a material impact on the world economy, would at least provide Biden credible evidence for suggesting the economy will settle down soon enough, stripping conservatives of more ammunition. But that would require the Ukrainians to really hurry to force Putin out of power and Russia out of the war with an acceptable settlement for Ukraine. So Democrats shouldn’t bet on this, but they can hope for it.
- Emerson College Polling gives Connecticut’s incumbent Senator Blumenthal (D) a 13 point lead over challenger Leora Levy (R), 49% – 36%, with a margin of error of 3 points. This is three points less than Emerson’s poll of several months ago. Blumenthal needs to run a careful, honest campaign, and let former President Trump’s endorsement of Levy weigh her down. Emerson is rated A-.
- Oklahoma’s Sooner Poll, which FiveThirtyEight rates as C+, has finally come out with polls on both Oklahoma Senate races. In our regularly scheduled event of Madison Horn v. incumbent Senator James Lankford (R), the latter leads 52% – 35%. In our special election event of Kendra Horn (D) v. Markwayne Mullin (R) for the seat left open by retiring Senator Inhofe (R), Mullin leads 52% – 40%. The margin of error is nearly 5 points, and it still doesn’t matter, Oklahoma remains deeply conservative – except the governor’s race is very competitive. Apparently Governor Stitt’s (R) vow to be the most extreme anti-abortionist in the land is not playing well to the crowd.
- A Marquette Law School poll shows Wisconsin incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) leading challenger Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) 49% – 48%. The margin of error is somewhere between 4.5 and 5 points. Johnson acts demented and confused, and so do, apparently, his supporters. Marquette is “A/B” rated.
- The report that the Biden Administration has helped avert a potentially crippling railroad workers strike cannot be anything but positive for Democratic office-seekers.
- Georgia polls continue to conflict as A- rated Quinnipiac University Poll says that incumbent Senator Pastor Warnock (D) leads challenger and former NFL star Herschel Walker (R) 52% – 46%.
The previous flight of outdated information is here.
