Banging on the door, screaming to be let. In other news:
- In terms of general applicability to the Democratic case, Biden’s move to pardon non-violent marijuana possession offenses has proven to be quite popular. Will voters connect traditional Republican opposition with their election choices? Or will unexpected Republican silence on Biden’s announcement be a successful tactic?
- Apparently Senator Lee (R) of Utah is in serious trouble, as Erick Erickson is pulling out the big guns of Guilt and Shame to goad Senator Romney (R) into endorsing Lee, if he can. I just don’t think Erickson understands the situation because he’s embedded in it. What passes for the Republican Party these days, in large part, is repugnant not only to the left, but to the independents and moderate Republicans as well. Between the January 6th Insurrection and Dobbs, it’s hard to see how Republicans fit into an American way of life where we collectively choose our leaders, when they’re busy making winning paramount, along with fetishizing money, and engaging in absolutism that endangers pregnant women and anyone who knows the easily enraged with a gun. Trump childishly humiliated Romney, Lee is a close ally of Trump, and so why is it hard to understand that Romney would rather see Lee, a man who doesn’t even think Democracy is important, lose to McMullin under the appearance that Lee is not a defender of the Republic?
- No doubt you’ve heard, but in case you haven’t, early voting is bounding right along, way ahead of the 2018 and even 2020 figures, where available. From CNBC:
Turnout from Georgia’s first day of early voting set a new state record for a midterm election, nearly doubling the figure from the same time period in the previous midterms, state election officials said Tuesday. … More than 131,000 Georgia voters cast ballots since early voting began Monday, according to the office of Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. The figure represents an 85% boost over the 2018 midterms, when nearly 71,000 early votes were cast on Day One, the office said.
Georgia, of course, is the venue for the Warnock / Walker contest, so some the jump is attributable to that. Is it otherwise significant? Erick Erickson, exhibiting mainstream media paranoia, doesn’t think so: Some of you are falling for the doom scenarios that Democrats are turning out in record numbers in early voting so you might as well give up. Don’t fall into that mindset. It was obvious that would be a last-minute media narrative concocted by the Democrats and advanced by a partisan political press. Because voters are easy to discourage? No, they’re hard to encourage, but once they decide they’re voting, they’re voting. That’s one of the lessons of Kansas, earlier this year. The pro-choice voters were faced with polls predicting the proposed state Constitutional amendment that would enable the Legislature to strip them of their abortion rights would win. That didn’t stop the pro-choice voters, who rejected the proposal by 18 points.
- Continuing an inadvertent pundit review, lefty documentarian Michael Moore, who predicted the shocking Trump victory, is predicting a blue tsunami this year.
- The recently released Times/Siena poll for the generic Congressional ballot has shocked many pundits, as it shows a 32 point shift among independent women voters in a month. Kerry Eleveld @ Daily Kos thinks it’s an outlier and should be ignored.
- In Colorado, Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group, B/C rated, shows Senator Bennet (D) leading challenger Joe O’Dea by 11 points, with a margin of error of ± 3.5 points. That seems to be all we get. That’s a bigger lead than other Bennet / O’Dea polls have shown, so maybe discount that number a bit. Notable remark found in the Denver Post: O’Dea spokesman Kyle Kohli said Bennet’s campaign and his allies had spent tens of millions to beat O’Dea, who he said had Bennet “on the ropes.” I gotta wonder just big a loss qualifies as on the ropes.
- A rated Landmark Communications‘ latest poll gives Senator Warnock (D) of Georgia a 46.1% to 46% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). It’s disappointing to think a gibberish spewing candidate is even seriously considered by the electorate.
- CBS News/YouGov, the latter B+ rated, rate Nevada as a toss up, as each garners a 48% share in their latest poll.
- A rated SurveyUSA gives Senator Schumer (D) a 52% to 38% lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R). Traction is unavailable in New York, it seems, as those numbers are comparable to previous polls.
- Cheri Beasley’s slipping, but the pollster is GOP-linked Trafalgar, so their assessment of North Carolina’s Senate race at Rep Budd (R) 48.4% to Beasley’s (D) 44.2% might need a discount. Or not. In three weeks we’ll find out.
- GOP aligned Cygnal, B+ rated, gives J. D. Vance (R) a 47% – 43% lead over Rep Tim Ryan (D) in Ohio.
- For those voters worried about Pennsylvania Lt. Governor Fetterman’s (D) health, his doctor says don’t.
- Trafalgar sees the Arizona race as a 1 point affair of 47.4% for Kelly (D), 46.4% for challenger Masters (R). Seeing as OH Predictive Insights had Kelly holding a thirteen point lead, I suspect there’s a bit of a let-down.
The last time they let is here.
