Blah blah blah. Right? In other news…
- A+ rated Siena College/The New York Times Upshot has the Nevada race of Senator Cortez Masto (D) and challenger Adam Laxalt (R) as a dead heat at 47% apiece. It seems they do not take the University of Nevada – Reno’s poll giving Cortez Masto a 13 point lead seriously. Notable: Their report consistently misspelled Cortez Masto’s last name as Cortez Mastro. Gonna be some red faces at the Siena College Research Institute office. Emerson College, a respectable A- rated outfit, gives Laxalt a largish 50% to 45% edge. And Suffolk University, B+ rated, gives Cortez Masto a 45% to 44% lead, much like Siena. If the Hispanic community comes through for the first Latina in the US Senate, then Masto will be reelected; otherwise, it’ll be a long night.
- The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot gives Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) a 49% to 44% lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in the race for the open Pennsylvania Senate seat. GOP linked and B rated Insider Advantage takes an opposite position, giving Dr. Oz a 46.9% to 44.0% lead. And Muhlenberg College/Morning Call, the former B+ rated, stakes out a middle position and calls this Senate race a dead heat at 47% apiece.
- The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot gives Georgia Senator Warnock (D) a 49% to 46% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). If only that lead were larger. Walker was a great football player, but every time he opens his mouth I either don’t understand him, or he’s out and out frightening. The last AJC poll has this race as a dead heat: In the race for the Senate, Walker is at 46% and Warnock is at 45% — a difference of a fraction of a percentage point that’s within the poll’s margin of error 3.1 percentage points. Libertarian Chase Oliver has about 5% support, and an additional 5% are undecided. A failure to break the 50% barrier will result in a runoff, just like last time. That may be to the Senator’s detriment, as Chase Oliver (L) will no longer be around to split the conservative vote.
- The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot does not give Arizona challenger Blake Masters (R) a lead in Arizona, unlike some polls, but rather Senator Kelly (D) has a 51% to 45% lead. OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, has Senator Kelly also leading, 48% to 46%, giving Marc Victor (L) 3%. And Fox News has Kelly up 47% to 45%. In other news, aforementioned Marc Victor (L) won’t be fulfilling the implicit nominative determinism-linked prophecy, as abc15 Arizona is reporting: Libertarian candidate Marc Victor is dropping out of the race to be Arizona’s next U.S. Senator. In a video on his website Tuesday morning, Victor made the announcement and added that he was endorsing Republican candidate Blake Masters. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. I hadn’t heard of Victor until just a few days ago, but I expect he provided a refuge for those moderate Republicans who couldn’t stomach Masters and didn’t want to vote for Senator Kelly. Will they suck it up and pick either of the remaining two candidates, leave their ballot blank – or vote for Victor as a protest? Reportedly, he’ll still be on the ballot, and I doubt ballots can be modified to reflect his capitulation – and generally campaign advertising is banned at voting sites, so some voters may not be aware of his withdrawal. And what of mail-in ballots? Will Victor voters seek to amend their votes, or will they shrug it off? But if the Siena poll is accurate, Masters has to persuade some Kelly voters to vote for him, and that will prove difficult, outside of a black swan event.
- The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot offered some rarities: polls of House of Representative races. I picked the Kansas offering of KS03, as it shows a Democrat creaming a Republican in Kansas: “In this rematch between two candidates well known to voters, Davids, the Democratic incumbent, has a significantly better favorability rating and a solid 14-point lead over Republican Adkins, who previously represented the district. Davids beat Adkins two years ago by 10 points. Davids has the support of 97% of Democrats, picks up 13% support from Republicans and has a two-to-one lead with independents. Adkins trails with men by two points and with women by 26 points.” Politics is mostly local, so drawing national conclusions from this is a touchy business, even in today’s unusually national environment, brought on by the blowback from the January 6th insurrection and the Dobbs decision overturning what is turning out to be the highly popular Roe vs. Wade decision – but it certainly sounds as if the conservative voters of KS03 are beginning to realize that Democrats can be good elected representatives as good as, or even better, than Republicans. Nor does it sound like a red wave. While 13% of the Republicans voting for the Democrat is not a large percentage, it’s a beginning to healing the frightening abyss between political factions. Or it’s part of the birth of at least one new political party. And it may indicate voter exhaustion with what passes for the Republican Party these days.
- Speaking of Siena College/The New York Times polls, it’s noteworthy that they’re more in line with other polls from past top-of-the-line pollsters than with the pollsters that happen to be GOP linked, such as Cygnal, Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, and maybe one or two others – and are not as highly rated. Indeed, this diarist on Daily Kos thinks those GOP linked pollsters may be slanting their results in order to influence voters, perhaps encouraging GOP voters and discourage Democratic voters, rather than measuring voters, as is more proper. Keep this in mind when reading Republican optimistic opinions, such as Erick Erickson’s prediction published today: The GOP really could get to 53 seats. And he’s absolutely confident that Walker will win the general election, and may even exceed 50%, which would permit him to skip the runoff otherwise required by Georgia law. If Republican boosters are basing their optimism on slanted polls designed to discourage Democratic voters who are, nevertheless, motivated by any or all of the extraordinary events of the last two years, it could be a deeply unpleasant surprise for the far-right extremists.
- And just because I’ve mentioned the Oklahoma gubernatorial race before, the latest is that the race is tightening, with Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister narrowly leading Governor Kevin Stitt (R), and now comes a new endorsement from a Republican: It was the “honor of a lifetime” to represent Oklahoma in Congress, [Former Rep. J.C.] Watts says, adding, “I was a Republican then, and I am a Republican now, and friends, I’m voting for Joy Hofmeister. All the scandal and corruption is too much. Joy is a woman of faith and integrity. She’ll always put Oklahoma first. I know Joy personally. I trust her, and you can, too.” File that under another rejection of the current state of Republican politics. Will Oklahoma have a Democratic governor? Or is this late Emerson College poll showing Stitt with a stiff nine point lead presaging the future?
- In New York, Emerson College follows up a recent poll with another that shows Senator Schumer (D) stretching his lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R) to 55% to 36%. Will they have an afternoon poll to complement their morning poll?
- Hallelujah, Alabama has a poll: GOP-linked Cygnal’s poll has Katie Britt (R) leading Will Boyd (D), 57.1% to 27.5%. I’m not feeling the tension, no matter how much Cygnal may be leaning.
- I missed this Iowa poll from a two or so weeks back: Change Research, B- rated, replicates the Des Moines Register poll results, 48% to 45%. Note to Franken: it’s only a shocker if you actually win. Grassley is no longer fit for service and needs to be put out to pasture. Notable: With three weeks to go, Grassley is weak with his own base. Just 92% of Republican voters and 89% of 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Grassley. Grassley gets near universal support (98%) among self-identified MAGA Republicans who voted for Trump in 2020 (about half–47%–of those who voted for Trump in 2020 identify as MAGA Republicans), but only 81% of non-MAGA Trump voters say they will vote for Grassley in this election. Wow. Being a close ally to Trump doesn’t guarantee slavish support, apparently, from Trump or his supporters. Franken has a ten point lead among independents, and if he can pick up a few more, he may pull this most unexpected upset off. Remember, though, Change Research only has a B- rating.
- A/B rated Saint Anselm College has the New Hampshire Senate race at a razor thin lead for challenger Don Bolduc (R) over Senator Hassan (D), 48%-47%. Call it a head heat with a margin of error of ± 2.5 points. Maybe the SLF canceled any more ad buys because it thinks Bolduc has the win in the bag? (See previous New Hampshire news at the link.)
- An Emerson College poll shows a potential blowout in the contest between Oklahoma Senator Lankford (R) and challenger Madison Horn (D) as the former appears to have a 57% to 33% lead.
- The same poll shows Kendra Horn (D) trailing Rep Mullin (R) 56% to 35% in the Oklahoma special election. It’s a real pity to reward a Trump-worshipper like Mullin with a job of this magnitude of responsibility.
- Utah has been one of the most mysterious races this cycle, with challenger Evan McMullin (I) barking at Senator Mike Lee’s (R) heels, according to Deseret News polls as well as McMullin-sponsored private polls. However, OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, isn’t going along with the other pollsters, public and private, and gives Senator Lee
the edgea cliff of support at 53% to 34%. This 19 point lead is surprising, and if Lee performs as they expect it’ll be a boost to their mediocre rating. If, on the other hand, Lee substantially underperforms, then there may be questions as to their competency. In fact, Emerson College also recently released a Utah poll, and it gives Lee a still surprising 49% to 39% lead. A 10 point lead is substantial, but not an imposing 19 points. Notable: The economy is the top issue for 47% of Utah voters in determining their November vote, followed by “threats to democracy” (12%), and abortion access (10%). Someone should remind these voters that, without democracy, there is no flourishing economy, and Senator Lee apparently doesn’t comprehend that. - GOP linked Insider Advantage has Washington Senator Murray (D) leading challenger Tiffany Smiley (R) by only 48% to 46.4%. This is at some variance with other recent Washington polls, such as the Seattle Times poll giving Murray an 8 point advantage, or this recent poll from Triton giving Murray a 5 point lead.
- Fox News surveys Wisconsin and finds Senator Johnson (R) and his conspiracy nuttiness holds a 48% to 45% lead over challenger Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D). Can former President Obama turn sentiment around for Barnes?
- Emerson College, busy as a bee, surveys Missouri and finds Eric Schmitt (R) has a bigger lead over challenger Trudy Busch Valentine (D), 51% to 39%. It appears Schmitt has saved this seat for the Republicans; if former Governor Greitens (R) had won the primary, this would have been a far different race.
The second latest, and therefore useless, installment in this series is here.
