Did I say something about snow? I hope not. Here’s some real news. I hope you like it.
- On Blake Masters’ candidacy in Arizona, Erick Erickson has this to say:
I don’t need to write a ton here. I just want to direct you to this piece in the Wall Street Journal. Blake Masters is losing Arizona, and it should be winnable.
But the reality is that Peter Thiel and Donald Trump went to bat for Masters in a crowded primary, poured millions in to get him the nomination, and they’ve abandoned him since. Thiel, only under pressure from Rick Scott and Mitch McConnell, is allegedly going to commit more money.
I personally think Erickson’s optimism concerning Arizona is unwarranted, as illustrated in this post. But the title of his post is important: Grifting to Loss.
The power structure that has evolved atop the Republican Party since the ascension of Trump appears to be focused on eliciting donations, not on winning elections. This is a bit odd for me to write, since the Gingrich Doctrine calls for winning in any way possible, not through the usual democratic means of persuasion and competency. But then, Trump is not a Gingrich disciple; he’s a grifter.
And it’s important to remember that grifters are rarely, if ever, long-term project builders and servants to the public good. It’s all about getting while the getting is good. The transformation of the Republican Party from a responsible governance institution into a Win by any means! institution has led, inevitably, to what Erickson condemns.
- New Hampshire Senate candidate and passionate election denier Don Bolduc (R) has suddenly erased the second clause from his description, above. While I have plenty of respect for people willing to change their minds when presented with evidence contradicting positions, the alacrity of this mind change is unpersuasive. And will his primary voters reject this bait and switch? Or will they see it as an attempt to attract independent voters and accept it as a necessary election strategem? In the first post-primary New Hampshire poll, incumbent Senator Hassan (D) leads Bolduc by 11 points, according to Emerson College Polling, 51% – 40%. For a Senator in imminent danger of ignominy, according to many pundits, she appears to be in good shape. But there’s still more than a month to go.
- Emerson College Polling/The Hill gives Rep Tim Ryan (D) a 44% – 40% lead for the open Ohio Senate seat, with a margin of error of 3 points. Ohio polls have been bouncing around, and only the last one in earlier November counts.
- The latest East Carolina Poll gives North Carolina Senate candidate Rep Ted Budd (R) a 3 point lead over Democratic nominee and former State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley, 49% – 46%. The margin of error is estimated at 3.6 points. While Beasley has made progress since the last poll by this institution, that’s still a hill to climb.
In Alaska the fourth qualifier for the Senate general election seat, Buzz Kelley, has “unofficially withdrew,” leaving Senator Murkowski (R), Kelly Tshibaka (R), and Patricia Chesbro (D) in the RCV (ranked choice voting) contest. In the nonpartisan primary, Kelley only drew 2.1% of the votes, which makes his withdrawal of minor significance. Chesbro, the Democrat, only drew 6.8%, so it appears this will be a battle between the moderate Murkowski and Tshibaka, herself somewhat of a moderate, according to her summation by On The Issues to the reader’s right. But she’s been endorsed by the former President.- In Washington Public Policy Polling, rated A-, has pulled the hearts out of the mouths of Democratic voters by giving incumbent Senator Murray (D) a 9 point lead, 48% – 39%, over challenger Tiffany Smiley (R). For the absent-minded, Trafalgar gave Murray a lead of 2.9 points, aka a “statistical dead heat”. Whether that poll was an outlier, or if the passing of time reflects Washington voters learning more of Smiley and deciding to stick to who they know, is not clear.
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On The Issues summation of Senator John Boozman (R-AR).
In Arkansas, Talk Business & Politics (TB&P), unknown to FiveThirtyEight, conducted a poll of voters and says incumbent Senator Boozman (R) leads challenger Natalie James (D), 43.5% – 30.5%. While the double digit lead is not surprising, there is some surprise, on my part, at the actual numbers: the incumbent’s failure to surmount the 50% marker suggests that quite a few Arkansas voters are troubled by the incumbent. They may be working their way through the intellectual and emotional challenges of voting for a Democrat who is not against abortion. Boozman cannot credibly claim to be a moderate, now can he? I still don’t think James can upset Boozman – but she may give him a scare. TB&P provides an extended, useful analysis that notes James has failed, so far, to attract the black vote, and women voters are far more undecided than male voters. She has a very tall mountain to surmount, but at least she only has to climb the undecided mountain. The Boozman voter mountain would be far more difficult.
- A Trafalgar poll shows incumbent Senator Kelly with a one point lead over challenger Blake Masters (R) in Arizona, which I think is shocking. Masters is an extremist and inexperienced and has no business in this race. However, the associated article from The Hill notes … GOP polling firm Trafalgar Group … Pollsters will often put their thumbs on the scale, legitimately, to correct for past variances between poll estimates and actual results. More ambitious pollsters will go further to please their ideological allies, and it’s possible that a few will engage in rank lying in order to gin up enthusiasm on their side. Trafalgar is rated A- by FiveThirtyEight, so, unless there’s been an ownership change at the pollster, I doubt they’d actually be lying. But it’s possible they’ve over-corrected for a candidate that appears, at least to me, to be absolutely unacceptable. Note, however, Emerson has actually reported similar results.
- Maryland’s first poll since the Senate primary, from unknown Goucher College, gives incumbent Senator Chris Van Hollen (D) a 56% – 33% over challenger Chris Chaffee (R). Chaffee’s facing the task of persuading Van Hollen voters to change their minds and vote for Chaffee, instead. To think he can do that is nigh the definition of optimism. Van Hollen appears secure, absent a devastating black swan.
Previous, outdated news has been hoarded here. Watch out for mantraps.
