Might it be the last one? Like the last mouse in the house? Nyah.

• When it comes to Pennsylvania, not all the news is small numbers. Some of it is big, even monstrous numbers. Like noted business tycoon and television star Oprah Winfrey: ”I said it was up to the citizens of Pennsylvania … but I will tell you all this, if I lived in Pennsylvania, I would have already cast my vote for John Fetterman for many reasons,” Winfrey said during an online discussion Thursday about voting and the midterm elections. Is Winfrey still the influential star that she was a couple of decades ago? Will the undecideds hear and heed her word? In other news, A rated Marist College’s final poll for this race – I hope! – has Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) leading 50% to 44%, while GOP-linked, A- rated Trafalgar has Dr. Oz (R) leading Fetterman, 47.7% to 45.5%, and another GOP-linked pollster, B rated Insider Advantage, has Oz leading 48% to 46%. I think Pennsylvania wins the competition to be the most heavily polled State in the Union. But for all the GOP linked polls favoring Oz, iconic GOP pollster Fox News comes up with a lead for Fetterman, 45% to 42%.
• In New Hampshire, Emerson College gives Senator Hassan (D) a 49% to 45% advantage over challenger Don Bolduc (R). Not over 50%, but better than trailing.
• It’s just like a carefully timed hand grenade, isn’t it? Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson (R), in a tight race with Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D), has, frankly, not smelled good in a long, long time. Still, for conservative leaning independents, this may be the last straw: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin was pushing for a tax cut provision in 2017 that benefitted his former plastics company and many others as his family was acquiring properties around the country, a newspaper review of property records revealed. The tax cut to companies called “pass-throughs” benefitted not only Johnson’s company and big donors, as had been previously reported, but it came as the senator’s family was acquiring luxury properties that could also take advantage of the law, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported Friday. No doubt the word “foul” can be heard throughout the State of Wisconsin, and in multiple contexts as well. Time to take a chance on new blood, Wisconsin independents.
• In Vermont, B rated Data for Progress suggests that soon we’ll be calling him Senator, as Peter Welch (D) leads Gerald Malloy (R) 63% to 32% in the race to replace Senator Leahy (D), who has been exhibiting health problems of late; no one else made it to 1%, indicating a sense of tribalism that may be a bit unfortunate. Incidentally, Senator Leahy won his reelection run in 2016 by nearly the same numbers.
• If you want more out of your polls than a couple three numbers, then you might want to read this post by Rule of Claw on Daily Kos. The writer believes there’s a serious undercount of young voters by the pollsters, and he has plausible reasons for that belief. Which is far more than election-deniers provide. Do I take him seriously? I will wait for results. If we have more than 52 Democratic Senators at the end of this fracas, then that might be good evidence for his thesis. Otherwise, it’s into the dustbin of history. But I will note this: I’ve noticed that, over the last couple of weeks, in most, but not all, A- rated Emerson College polls have been diverging towards the conservative candidate, unlike most other top-tier pollsters. Rule of Claw implies that Emerson College’s data collection methods, or perhaps their adjustment algorithms, may be antiquated. So it’s interesting to see someone with more knowledge than I having the same observation, and having more knowledge to make some educated guesses. Got that?
• The race for the Utah Senate seat between Senator Lee (R) and Evan McMullin (I) has been one that has left me quite mystified. Is it still a close race? Or is Lee all of a sudden ahead by quite a bit? Now it comes out that Senator Lee would prefer to rid the country entirely of Social Security. Here’s the link in case you’re interested. The Deseret News is on the case. But do Utah voters care about Social Security?
• A rated Marist College has Georgia Senator Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R), 49% to 45%. Similarly rated Fox News has Warnock leading by only one point, 44% to 43% – call it a dead heat, what with a margin of error of ± 3 points. Erick Erickson remains convinced that not only will Walker win, but he’ll break the 50% barrier and avoid a runoff. Why in the world Erickson wants Walker for his Senator beats me.
• Siena College gives Florida Senator Rubio (R) a 51% to 43% lead over Rep Demings (D), with a margin of error of ± 4.4 points. YouGov gives Rubio a similar lead.
• A rated Marist College has Arizona Senator Kelly (D) leading challenger Blake Masters (R), 50% to 47% among definite voters, and among registered voters he’s up 49% to 45%.

How much further, pray tell? Ouch. Pity about that.

The end is nigh. Sing it, kitty! In other news …

• A rated Monmouth University Poll’s last survey of Pennsylvania’s Senate race gives Lt Governor Fetterman (D) a 49% to 44% lead over Dr. Oz. How broken is this race? Will Oz pull it out? Even thrash Fetterman? Emerson College may be indicating that, giving Oz a 48% to 46% lead. Susquehanna Polling and Research, B+ rated, believes Dr. Oz has a lead of 47.6% to 46.6%, or another dead heat. Remington, more on them below, has Dr. Oz ahead 47% to 44%, while B+ rated Suffolk University, while finding their recent debate may have hurt Fetterman due to his stroke-affected performance, gives Fetterman a 47% to 45% lead, or too close to really call. Notable: The contest is up for grabs, the survey shows, with an unusually high 19% of independents undecided, even as early voting has opened. 19% of independents are undecided? Are you yanking my starter cord? Or is this article from WaPo, quoting Dr. Oz as saying Senator McConnell runs the party and not the former President, a deal-breaker for MAGA voters in PA? Daily Kos’s Joan McCarter seems excited about it.
• B rated Remington gives Arizona Senator Kelly (D) a 48% to 47% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R) in Arizona. On RealClearPolitics, Remington Research Group has (R) after their name, which appears to mean they’re Republican leaning. If so, Kelly may have a somewhat larger lead than shown here. For instance, A+ rated Siena College just gave the Senator a six point lead. But GOP linked Insider Advantage makes it a dead heat at 48%.
• B/C rated University of Arkansas has issued a poll for the Arkansas Senator Boozman (R) vs Natalie James (D) race, but there are no numbers in the document. The RealClearPolitics link for it, though, claims Boozman now has a 33 point lead. While not surprising, it’s disappointing in that the two previous available polls gave Boozman a much more surprisingly slim 13 point lead. But University of Arkansas does not have an impressive rating, either.
• GOP linked Insider Advantage gives Florida Senator Rubio (R) a 51% to 45% lead over Rep Val Demings (D). This seems broadly consistent with other polls. Although this guy claims to have interviewed a Florida pollster who says Crist (D, formerly R) leads Governor DeSantis (R) in the Florida gubernatorial contest by six points, which would be a real outlier. I don’t doubt either of the guys, I just don’t believe the result, not only because most other polls show DeSantis way out ahead, but this guy gets his results from online polling.
• A rated SurveyUSA has Georgia Senator Warnock (D) up 49% to 43% over challenger Herschel Walker (R), while Republican pollster Remington turns the lead around, Walker 49%, Warnock 45%.
• Emerson College suggests the Kansas race has broken open, with Senator Moran (R) leading 54% to 33% over challenger Mark Holland (D). As Moran’s On The Issues page suggests he’s a rabid anti-abortionist, this is a little on the unbelievable side. I guess we’ll find out in five days.
• The Trump – McConnell feud continues in the GOP. This sort of thing, common in organizations that have as foundational principles arrogance, self-regard, greed, idolization of wealth, and etc, often leads to failure to reach organizational goals, and sometimes the dissolution of such organizations. Whether that happens here remains to be seen.
• GOP linked Trafalgar continues the Saint Anselm’s College findings by giving Don Bolduc (R) a small lead over New Hampshire Senator Hassan (D), 47% to 45.7%. Just call it a dead heat. However, trekking in outlier land, UMass Lowell’s Center for Public Opinion gives Senator Hassan a 51% to 41% lead. That’s huge. And out of line with other pollsters. But Lowell’s is a B+ rated pollster, so sneezing is out of the question.
• The latest Marquette Law School Poll, A/B rated, gives Wisconsin Senator Johnson (R) a 52% to 46% lead over Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D). Another six years of dread stupid rumors? Say it isn’t so! However, A+ rated Siena College gives Johnson a much smaller 47% to 45% lead, or technically a dead heat. And in this poll Johnson isn’t over the 50% hurdle.
• Remington is giving J. D. Vance (R) a 48% to 43% lead over Rep Ryan (D) in Ohio. And there’s Baldwin Wallace University, B/C rated, giving Ryan the advantage at 50.2% to 46%, which I don’t call an outlier, but I lay in bed at night debating the point. From The Center Square regarding this poll, Notable: Vance’s memoir Hillbilly Elegy that detailed his family’s crisis in Appalachian Ohio surrounding opioid addiction along with other economic and socioeconomic issues became wildly popular and led to a movie. To Sutton, “airing dirty laundry” of the region could create problems for Vance with voters in the area. “J.D. Vance became very well know because of his memoir and has been seen as a great success,” Sutton said. “But if you’re from these communities dealing with these issues, you look at your brethren here and he aired the dirty laundry. For the folks that live in those areas he committed a cardinal sin. I think those folks in those areas are either voting for Ryan or sitting this race out. So, one of the things I’m going to be looking at is the vote gap between those who vote for DeWine and those who vote for Vance.” I look forward to hearing if this hypothesis proves out.
• Emerson College gives North Carolina Rep Ted Budd (R) a 50% to 45% lead over Cheri Beasley (D). Balancing them, B- rated Civiqs has these two nominees tied at 49%, with a margin of error of ± 4.9 points.
• Finally, SurveyUSA shows Trudy Busch Valentine (D) closing the gap too slowly and too late in Missouri, as Eric Schmitt (R) leads 50% to 41% to replace the retiring Senator Blunt (R). A previous poll showed a 12 or 13 point lead, I forget which.

Last time? I spilled something on it. Here it is.

Blah blah blah. Right? In other news…

• A+ rated Siena College/The New York Times Upshot has the Nevada race of Senator Cortez Masto (D) and challenger Adam Laxalt (R) as a dead heat at 47% apiece. It seems they do not take the University of Nevada – Reno’s poll giving Cortez Masto a 13 point lead seriously. Notable: Their report consistently misspelled Cortez Masto’s last name as Cortez Mastro. Gonna be some red faces at the Siena College Research Institute office. Emerson College, a respectable A- rated outfit, gives Laxalt a largish 50% to 45% edge. And Suffolk University, B+ rated, gives Cortez Masto a 45% to 44% lead, much like Siena. If the Hispanic community comes through for the first Latina in the US Senate, then Masto will be reelected; otherwise, it’ll be a long night.
• The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot gives Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) a 49% to 44% lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in the race for the open Pennsylvania Senate seat. GOP linked and B rated Insider Advantage takes an opposite position, giving Dr. Oz a 46.9% to 44.0% lead. And Muhlenberg College/Morning Call, the former B+ rated, stakes out a middle position and calls this Senate race a dead heat at 47% apiece.
• The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot gives Georgia Senator Warnock (D) a 49% to 46% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). If only that lead were larger. Walker was a great football player, but every time he opens his mouth I either don’t understand him, or he’s out and out frightening. The last AJC poll has this race as a dead heat: In the race for the Senate, Walker is at 46% and Warnock is at 45% — a difference of a fraction of a percentage point that’s within the poll’s margin of error 3.1 percentage points. Libertarian Chase Oliver has about 5% support, and an additional 5% are undecided. A failure to break the 50% barrier will result in a runoff, just like last time. That may be to the Senator’s detriment, as Chase Oliver (L) will no longer be around to split the conservative vote.
• The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot does not give Arizona challenger Blake Masters (R) a lead in Arizona, unlike some polls, but rather Senator Kelly (D) has a 51% to 45% lead. OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, has Senator Kelly also leading, 48% to 46%, giving Marc Victor (L) 3%. And Fox News has Kelly up 47% to 45%. In other news, aforementioned Marc Victor (L) won’t be fulfilling the implicit nominative determinism-linked prophecy, as abc15 Arizona is reporting: Libertarian candidate Marc Victor is dropping out of the race to be Arizona’s next U.S. Senator. In a video on his website Tuesday morning, Victor made the announcement and added that he was endorsing Republican candidate Blake Masters. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. I hadn’t heard of Victor until just a few days ago, but I expect he provided a refuge for those moderate Republicans who couldn’t stomach Masters and didn’t want to vote for Senator Kelly. Will they suck it up and pick either of the remaining two candidates, leave their ballot blank – or vote for Victor as a protest? Reportedly, he’ll still be on the ballot, and I doubt ballots can be modified to reflect his capitulation – and generally campaign advertising is banned at voting sites, so some voters may not be aware of his withdrawal. And what of mail-in ballots? Will Victor voters seek to amend their votes, or will they shrug it off? But if the Siena poll is accurate, Masters has to persuade some Kelly voters to vote for him, and that will prove difficult, outside of a black swan event.
• The Siena College/The New York Times Upshot offered some rarities: polls of House of Representative races. I picked the Kansas offering of KS03, as it shows a Democrat creaming a Republican in Kansas: “In this rematch between two candidates well known to voters, Davids, the Democratic incumbent, has a significantly better favorability rating and a solid 14-point lead over Republican Adkins, who previously represented the district. Davids beat Adkins two years ago by 10 points. Davids has the support of 97% of Democrats, picks up 13% support from Republicans and has a two-to-one lead with independents. Adkins trails with men by two points and with women by 26 points.” Politics is mostly local, so drawing national conclusions from this is a touchy business, even in today’s unusually national environment, brought on by the blowback from the January 6th insurrection and the Dobbs decision overturning what is turning out to be the highly popular Roe vs. Wade decision – but it certainly sounds as if the conservative voters of KS03 are beginning to realize that Democrats can be good elected representatives as good as, or even better, than Republicans. Nor does it sound like a red wave. While 13% of the Republicans voting for the Democrat is not a large percentage, it’s a beginning to healing the frightening abyss between political factions. Or it’s part of the birth of at least one new political party. And it may indicate voter exhaustion with what passes for the Republican Party these days.
• Speaking of Siena College/The New York Times polls, it’s noteworthy that they’re more in line with other polls from past top-of-the-line pollsters than with the pollsters that happen to be GOP linked, such as Cygnal, Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, and maybe one or two others – and are not as highly rated. Indeed, this diarist on Daily Kos thinks those GOP linked pollsters may be slanting their results in order to influence voters, perhaps encouraging GOP voters and discourage Democratic voters, rather than measuring voters, as is more proper. Keep this in mind when reading Republican optimistic opinions, such as Erick Erickson’s prediction published today: The GOP really could get to 53 seats. And he’s absolutely confident that Walker will win the general election, and may even exceed 50%, which would permit him to skip the runoff otherwise required by Georgia law. If Republican boosters are basing their optimism on slanted polls designed to discourage Democratic voters who are, nevertheless, motivated by any or all of the extraordinary events of the last two years, it could be a deeply unpleasant surprise for the far-right extremists.
• And just because I’ve mentioned the Oklahoma gubernatorial race before, the latest is that the race is tightening, with Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister narrowly leading Governor Kevin Stitt (R), and now comes a new endorsement from a Republican: It was the “honor of a lifetime” to represent Oklahoma in Congress, [Former Rep. J.C.] Watts says, adding, “I was a Republican then, and I am a Republican now, and friends, I’m voting for Joy Hofmeister. All the scandal and corruption is too much. Joy is a woman of faith and integrity. She’ll always put Oklahoma first. I know Joy personally. I trust her, and you can, too.” File that under another rejection of the current state of Republican politics. Will Oklahoma have a Democratic governor? Or is this late Emerson College poll showing Stitt with a stiff nine point lead presaging the future?
• In New York, Emerson College follows up a recent poll with another that shows Senator Schumer (D) stretching his lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R) to 55% to 36%. Will they have an afternoon poll to complement their morning poll?
• Hallelujah, Alabama has a poll: GOP-linked Cygnal’s poll has Katie Britt (R) leading Will Boyd (D), 57.1% to 27.5%. I’m not feeling the tension, no matter how much Cygnal may be leaning.
• I missed this Iowa poll from a two or so weeks back: Change Research, B- rated, replicates the Des Moines Register poll results, 48% to 45%. Note to Franken: it’s only a shocker if you actually win. Grassley is no longer fit for service and needs to be put out to pasture. Notable: With three weeks to go, Grassley is weak with his own base. Just 92% of Republican voters and 89% of 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Grassley. Grassley gets near universal support (98%) among self-identified MAGA Republicans who voted for Trump in 2020 (about half–47%–of those who voted for Trump in 2020 identify as MAGA Republicans), but only 81% of non-MAGA Trump voters say they will vote for Grassley in this election. Wow. Being a close ally to Trump doesn’t guarantee slavish support, apparently, from Trump or his supporters. Franken has a ten point lead among independents, and if he can pick up a few more, he may pull this most unexpected upset off. Remember, though, Change Research only has a B- rating.
• A/B rated Saint Anselm College has the New Hampshire Senate race at a razor thin lead for challenger Don Bolduc (R) over Senator Hassan (D), 48%-47%. Call it a head heat with a margin of error of ± 2.5 points. Maybe the SLF canceled any more ad buys because it thinks Bolduc has the win in the bag? (See previous New Hampshire news at the link.)
• An Emerson College poll shows a potential blowout in the contest between Oklahoma Senator Lankford (R) and challenger Madison Horn (D) as the former appears to have a 57% to 33% lead.
• The same poll shows Kendra Horn (D) trailing Rep Mullin (R) 56% to 35% in the Oklahoma special election. It’s a real pity to reward a Trump-worshipper like Mullin with a job of this magnitude of responsibility.
• Utah has been one of the most mysterious races this cycle, with challenger Evan McMullin (I) barking at Senator Mike Lee’s (R) heels, according to Deseret News polls as well as McMullin-sponsored private polls. However, OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, isn’t going along with the other pollsters, public and private, and gives Senator Lee the edge a cliff of support at 53% to 34%. This 19 point lead is surprising, and if Lee performs as they expect it’ll be a boost to their mediocre rating. If, on the other hand, Lee substantially underperforms, then there may be questions as to their competency. In fact, Emerson College also recently released a Utah poll, and it gives Lee a still surprising 49% to 39% lead. A 10 point lead is substantial, but not an imposing 19 points. Notable: The economy is the top issue for 47% of Utah voters in determining their November vote, followed by “threats to democracy” (12%), and abortion access (10%). Someone should remind these voters that, without democracy, there is no flourishing economy, and Senator Lee apparently doesn’t comprehend that.
• GOP linked Insider Advantage has Washington Senator Murray (D) leading challenger Tiffany Smiley (R) by only 48% to 46.4%. This is at some variance with other recent Washington polls, such as the Seattle Times poll giving Murray an 8 point advantage, or this recent poll from Triton giving Murray a 5 point lead.
• Fox News surveys Wisconsin and finds Senator Johnson (R) and his conspiracy nuttiness holds a 48% to 45% lead over challenger Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D). Can former President Obama turn sentiment around for Barnes?
• Emerson College, busy as a bee, surveys Missouri and finds Eric Schmitt (R) has a bigger lead over challenger Trudy Busch Valentine (D), 51% to 39%. It appears Schmitt has saved this seat for the Republicans; if former Governor Greitens (R) had won the primary, this would have been a far different race.

The second latest, and therefore useless, installment in this series is here.

This isn’t the last roundup. Not yet. In other news…

• Alaska’s Senator Murkowski (R) has been endorsed by Alaska Rep Peltola (D), who shockingly won the special election to replace the late Rep Don Young (R) last month, and Murkowski has endorsed Peltola. Or at least that’s how I read this: Asked if she would rank Peltola first on her ballot next month in Alaska’s new ranked-choice voting system, Murkowski paused. After a full 18 seconds, she said, “Yeah, I am.” She then mumbled, “I’m going to get in so much trouble.” And in return: Asked to respond to Murkowski’s de facto endorsement, Peltola said, “I’m voting for her, so we’re even-steven.” In case you missed it, my take on this is here.
• CNN and SSRS, the latter only C rated, suggest that Senator Johnson (R) of Wisconsin holds a 1 point lead at 50% to 49%, with a margin of error of ± 4.5 points for likely voters. Salt shaker? Yes.
• CNN and SSRS also suggest that Lt. Governor Fetterman’s (D) hunt for the soon-to-be empty Pennsylvania Senate seat is going well, giving him a 51% to 45% lead over Dr. Oz Mehmet (R), with a ± 4.6 point margin of error. Again, salt shaker. Maybe hang them from your ears. CBS News/YouGov, on the other hand, gives Fetterman a much smaller lead of 51% to 49%. In other news, unaffiliated Senate candidate Everett Stern (I), who was supposedly polling at 3% – he doesn’t show up in the aforementioned CNN/SSRS poll – has dropped out, according to sharecare on Daily Kos. No data sources are given by sharecare, but a tweet from Stern announces his withdrawal and endorsement of Fetterman. Take it for what you will, but he is listed on Ballotpedia as a candidate for this Senate seat, so this may be more or less accurate information. If Fetterman wins by less than 3 points, he’ll owe Stern a beer.
• Paywalled The New York Times reports Senator McConnell’s (R) Senate Leadership Fund is canceling any further support for challenger Don Bolduc’s (R) pursuit of Senator Hassasn (D) in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Emerson College gives Hassan a 48% to 45% lead and GOP aligned Insider Advantage, B rated, gives Hassan a 47.6% to 47.1% advantage. Question: If it’s that close, you’d think the SLF would stick around, wouldn’t you? Perhaps Bolduc is simply too revolting even for McConnell. Or maybe SLF’s internal polling isn’t congruent with Insider Advantage.
• WaPo notes that the ranks of independent voters are growing, suggesting unhappiness with at least one party. Notable: Christopher Cooper, political science professor at Western Carolina University, recently co-wrote research examining the rise of the unaffiliated voter in North Carolina and nationally. “Voters are signaling something to us. A lot of smart folks might disagree with me and say, ‘Look, so many of these are shadow partisans. Don’t worry about them,’ ” said Cooper, referring to voters who say they are nonpartisan but lean toward one party mostly. “I think the voters are trying to say they may not be able to escape the two-party system, but they’re going to push back on it when they can.” In other words, cut out the extremism, the bulging eyes, the hair-on-fire arrogance of modern politics. If you can’t cut it out, then return to the barstools from whence you came, because positions ranging from strict anti-abortionism to defunding the police are not acceptable to many voters, and they’re leaving the parties and making a point. How this will affect the Senate races? I’m guessing independents, appalled by Dobbs, will lean to the Democrats, but they may just stay home out of disgust.
• In Connecticut a Quinnipiac University poll gives Senator Blumenthal (D) a 56% – 41% lead over challenger Leora Levy (R), which seems far more reasonable than the last Connecticut Senate poll from ten or so days ago, in which pollster Fabrizio found Blumenthal had only a five point lead. Fabrizio is B/C rated, while QU is A- rated. Final results will show if Fabrizio has improved and QU degraded – or not.
• GOP-aligned Trafalgar is now giving challenger Herschel Walker (R) a 48.9% to 46.5% lead over Senator Warnock (D) in Georgia. Chase Oliver (L) has a 4.6% proportion of the survey, and the survey has a margin of error of ± 2.9 points.
• B+ rated Cygnal gives J. D. Vance (R) a 46.9% to 43.3% lead over Rep Tim Ryan (D) in Ohio.
• Oregon’s Senator Wyden (D) continues to lead challenger Jo Rae Perkins, 51% to 40%, according to B rated Data For Progress. While closer than the last poll, Perkins still has an immense amount of ground to make up in the next two weeks against a sitting Senator, even with this poll’s margin of error of ± 3 points.

Last update here.

The updates are thick and fast. Like mud off a bicycle tire.

• Wisconsin has had a couple of polls of late. Marquette Law School Poll, A/B rated, gives Senator Johnson (R) a 52% – 46% advantage over Lt. Governor and challenger Mandela Barnes (D), a quite large six point gap. B/C rated Clarity Campaign Labs has a substantially different finding of a one point lead for challenger Barnes, 48% – 47%, with a margin of error of ± 3.3 points, aka a statistical dead heat. On the news front, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the largest newspaper in Wisconsin, has condemned the incumbent, Senator Johnson (R), in no uncertain terms: He’s an election falsifier who recklessly promoted lies about the 2020 presidential race long after it was clear Donald Trump lost. He’s a science fabulist who suggested, without evidence, that the COVID-19 vaccines could make the pandemic worse and who repeatedly touted unproven remedies for the disease — from Ivermectin to mouthwash. They want to see the back of Johnson’s head, the sooner the better, and for the same reasons everyone would like to see him gone. To my mind, he doesn’t know how to conduct himself as a Senator and responsible adult. Who can possibly vote for him?
• Along with polls, Nevada gets to have, well, what is it called? Scandal? Gossip? Whatever it is, this intro paragraph in The Nevada Independent summarizes it nicely: Fourteen members of Republican Senate candidate and former Attorney General Adam Laxalt’s family announced Wednesday that they would collectively endorse his Democratic opponent, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, in the heated race for Nevada’s U.S. Senate seat. … “We believe that Catherine possesses a set of qualities that clearly speak of what we like to call ‘Nevada grit,’” the letter said, adding that “no further comments will be made, as we believe this letter speaks for itself.” They won’t actually spit on his shoes, since he is family, but if your own relations would rather see your opponent win than you, perhaps it’s time to reconsider your life philosophy. But this is not an unique event; six of current Arizona Representative Paul Gosar’s (R) siblings have recommended against votes for him. Gosar is among the most extremist of the Republicans in Congress.But there’s more! Kerry Eleveld on Daily Kos comments on, inter alia, Nevada’s polling difficulties:
  

  But Nevada is also notoriously difficult to poll, partially due to the concentration of Latino voters who are just as notoriously difficult to poll. In fact, during the 2010 midterms, then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was famously left for dead by pollsters, who anticipated little to no Latino participation would lead to a drubbing by GOP insurgent candidate Sharron Angle. Instead, Latino voters turned out at a record rate of 16% (despite accounting for just 12% of the state’s registered voters at the time), propelling Reid to a 6-point victory.

  The mention of the late Senator Reid (D) makes this a bit dated, but possibly still relevant. Eleveld is convinced that a recent Trump rally in Nevada will rekindle Senator Masto’s supporters’ willingness to vote, and may well be the reason she wins in November, if that does happen. She only has a little time left.

• Emerson College gives Ohio Republican J. D. Vance a 1 point advantage over Rep Ryan (D). Notable: Men are breaking for the Republican candidate and women are breaking for the Democratic candidate in the US Senate Election; men for Vance over Ryan 53% to 40%, while women for Ryan over Vance 49% to 39%. A higher share of women are undecided at 11%, compared to 6% of men. Gonna be close, it sounds, but if the undecided counts are to be believed, Ryan may pull this one out.
• The former President will have to remain unhappy with South Dakota, as the latest SDSU Poll shows Senator Thune (R) now across the 50% threshold with a 53% – 28% lead. Challenger Brian Bengs (D) backslides three points, just to add to the injury – I think those three points were attached to separate toes on his left foot when they departed for Senator Thune. It’d be the upset of the election cycle if Bengs pulls this one out of witches’ pot. On another note, for those of us interested in the gubernatorial contest, Governor Noem’s (R) reelection lead has improved a point to 45% – 41% over Jamie Smith (D). As the margin of error is ± 4 points, technically it’s still a dead heat, but it appears that Noem is the way to bet. But it’s hard to ignore the voter dissatisfaction in conservative South Dakota with the governor.
• I may have been premature believing voters’ worries over Pennsylvania Lt Governor and Senate candidate Fetterman’s (D) health, by which I mean the stroke he suffered just a day or two before PA Primary Day, were and are minor, or the far-right is desperate to change a few minds. Erick Erickson’s post here illustrates the general conservative tactic of spreading worries, necessary or not, concerning Fetterman’s recovery from his stroke; it also contains a clip of the  NBC News interview with Fetterman, illustrating his problems processing sounds. Erickson also, not so subtly, strokes the fires of tribalism by framing the entire issue as Us vs Them, rather than an honest analysis of the issue. Catch it? On the other side, WaPo contributes an article on the characteristics of recovering from a stroke, and how Fetterman’s recovery is typical and does not involve damage to his judgment, only to auditory processing; the latter can be circumvented using closed captioning by a specialist in such things. Erickson is adamant that “the left” is furious that “the right” knows about Fetterman’s problems, a fury that hasn’t washed over me, yet. Maybe I don’t read the right rags^[1]. Then there’s the tribalism, Erickson’s forever trying to keep his side together.But this is an honest conundrum for the Fetterman-leaning, responsible voter, because we’re supposed to select the person we believe will best represent our State, whether it’s in the House or the Senate. To that voter, I would say the following. First, his main opponent, Dr. Oz Mehmet (R), is utterly unacceptable. Any long-term member of the skeptics’ community can give you a number of examples of his snake-oil practices as a TV celebrity who happens to be a medical doctor, illustrating his inferior ethics and general unsuitability for a seat in the highest elective body in the land. But electing Fetterman carries a significant risk that he’ll become incapacitated, rather than recover; the timing of his stroke was exceptionally unfortunate for him and the Democrats. So what happens in the event of incapacity? Dr. Oz, by virtue of coming in second in this contest, does not automatically become Senator if Fetterman becomes cognitively disabled. Instead, and I’ll grant that I’m no lawyer, but the general pattern is that the Governor will appoint a replacement Senator and schedule a special election. Some States require the appointed replacement come from the same Party as the one who cannot serve, and, if so, then there’s your answer. If that’s not true, then who’ll be the Governor? At the moment, that’s up in the air, but the election is leaning quite heavily to the Democrat, Josh Shapiro. You’ll have to trust that he wins in November, and that his judgment is good, but that’s not nearly an impossible argument to make. I’d say that if you’d vote Fetterman if his health was good, vote Fetterman now. If he needs to be replaced, the odds are good that his replacement will be someone who shares his ideology, if not his charisma.

  In other Pennsylvania news, Trafalgar’s latest poll gives Fetterman a 47.1% – 44.8% lead over Dr. Oz. Recall that Trafalgar tends to lean conservative, so this lead may be larger than it appears. Or not. It’s hard to say, what with conservative firms doing better in 2020 than neutrals and liberal firms, but the candidate list is positively littered with extremists on the conservative side which may not deserve, in the end, the same compensation as was awarded in 2020 and prior elections, as well as issues that lean towards the liberals on the balance.

• In the expected comedown from the OH Predictive Insights poll, pollster InsiderAdvantage, B rated, gives Arizona Senator Kelly (D) a 46% – 41.6% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R), with Marc Victor (L) at 5%. The margin of error is projected to be ± 4.2 points. The OH Predictive Insights poll had Kelly up by 13 points. In other news, something stronger than rumor has it that Trump minion Peter Thiel will be contributing to the Masters’ campaign soon.
• A new poll from A rated Marist Poll in New York gives Senator and Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D) a 54% – 34% lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R) among registered voters, and a 52% – 39% lead among those voters who are definitely going to vote. Pinion isn’t showing signs of traction.
• GOP-linked pollster Trafalgar, A- rated, has a new poll out on the Georgia Senate race, giving Senator Warnock (D) a 46.3% – 44.8% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). With a margin of error of ± 2.9 points, this is a statistical dead heat, and a far smaller Warnock advantage than that measured by the last poll, a Quinnipiac University Poll effort giving Senator Warnock a 7 point lead with the same margin of error. The differing results reflect, I think, adjustments made by the pollsters for factors they cannot otherwise rid themselves of. Think of the problems NASA had with the Hubble Space Telescope mirror. It’s the same thing, but different.
• Finally, A- rated Public Policy Polling finds a 14 point lead for Senator Duckworth (D) of Illinois, 50% – 36%, over challenger Kathy “only I can beat Duckworth!” Salvi (R). The latter is not making progress and might be best served by preparing an apology letter for her intemperate claim, because she’s not going anywhere.

The last snow squall of news is here.

¹ Some younger readers may not be aware that “rags” is old jargon for newspapers, most of which are fading out as they lose the competition with the Web, with a few notable exceptions such as WaPo, The New York Times, The StarTribune, and a few others. Our societal losses due to this phenomenon is not comprehended by most people who are not journalists, and I’m not a journalist, so I’m not qualified to really tell you what you’ve inadvertently lost, but I’ve talked about it before. And it makes me sad to lose such an apropos bit of jargon, as newspapers often physically incorporate rags in their final form. Another bit of jargon is Ink-stained wretch, which is even more enjoyable.

Godzilla wipes out Tokyo. Of course. The kaiju have to sign up in advance to do that. In other news:

• In a baffling move, incumbents up for reelection Lankford (R-OK), Rubio (R-FL), and Lee (R-UT) are sponsoring a Senate bill named Protect Drug Innovation Act, which is “To repeal prescription drug price control provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.” As this part of the Inflation Reduction Act is both popular and beneficial to the elderly segment of the electorate, this seems an unnecessary risk on the part of these Senators. But can Schumer perform a bit of aikido on them? He might grant it discussion and a vote, against their expectation, thus gathering material for their and other Senate races to benefit their opponents. That, however, would require confidence in how members of his own caucus would vote.
• Senator Hassan (D) of New Hampshire continues to hold a lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), according to A/B rated Saint Anselm College. They give her double the lead that conservative-leaning Trafalgar has accorded her, a lead of six points, with a margin of error of ± 3.3 points. Notable: In a successful tactic sure to be become more widespread in coming cycles, Democratic groups spent millions of dollars to help secure the nominations of explicitly pro-Trump Republican candidates. These nominees now face a general electorate in which 52% of voters have a strongly unfavorable opinion of the former president. Saint Anselm is premature in this conclusion. The fact you got who you wanted doesn’t guarantee victory. In fact, an extremist is more likely to interfere, post-election, in a destructive manner with the inauguration. And some GOP state parties are entirely controlled by extremists who want little to do with GOP moderates, so ensuring the nomination of a moderate may be more productive. This point seems less applicable to Democrat state parties, as lefty extremists have not seen the success of their far-right counterparts. The domestic cultural history just isn’t there.
• CBS News Polls/YouGov are giving Senator Johnson (R) of Wisconsin a 1 point lead over Lt. Governor Barnes (D), 50% – 49%. Call it a dead heat. Notable: Republicans appear to have a turnout advantage. They are four points more likely than Democrats to say they’re definitely voting this year, and Johnson supporters are ten points more likely than Barnes backers to say they’re very enthusiastic about voting. Enthusiastic to vote for Johnson, who runs around threatening old, stable social net programs while spewing conspiracy rumors. My neighbors to the East are decidedly an odd bunch, but I’m not surprised, given their recent election habits.
• Former President Trump’s Make America Great Again Inc super PAC is finally getting involved in four hot races, Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as Georgia and Arizona. But will these political ads inspire voters to vote for his candidates – or motivate them to vote for the Democrats?
• It occurs to me that candidate Herschel Walker (R) of Georgia is not only endorsed by the former President, but was personally recruited by the former President. Walker failing to beat Senator Warnock (D) would be a tremendous blow to the political prestige of the former President, and given how Walker’s reputation is in tatters, there’s a real chance that Walker will not only lose, but actually be routed, despite Trump’s late efforts. It’s up to Georgia voters to decide if Walker is up to the job of Senator.
• Speaking of Georgia, Emerson College has Senator Warnock (D) up by two points, 48% to 46%, over Herschel Walker (R). Notable, maybe: Since the August Emerson Georgia poll, Warnock’s support increased four points and Walker’s support decreased by two points. If Emerson is as accurate as their A- rating suggests, then that’s significant, but as the gap is less than their margin of error of ± 3 points, and even the best pollsters don’t always get it right, it sounds more like just noise in the signal.
• Alaska Senator Murkowski (R) has gained support from a new super PAC named Country First, created by retiring Representative and member of the January 6th Committee Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). He did threaten to stay in politics, remember. But will word of this support play positively or negatively with the Alaska electorate? Beats me.
• Utah’s Evan McMullin (I) has also gained Country First’s support; again, I don’t know if this is a positive or a negative for the candidate. And Utah has a new poll, again from Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics, but conducted by B rated pollster Dan Jones & Associates (a detail which I’d missed before), showing challenger McMullin (I) losing ground as Senator Lee (R) leads 41% – 37% with a margin of error of ± 3.46 points. Notable: It looks like 8% of those surveyed are looking at other candidates, and, significantly, 12% are undecided. That’s where McMullin’s gold is located, in that group of undecided. He doesn’t have to convince Lee voters to change their minds, which can be difficult. But it’s not good that McMullin lost two points of support relative to Lee. Also notable: [The survey] found 97% of those surveyed say they are likely to vote, including 83% who say they will definitely vote. … According to the poll, Utahns who identified themselves as moderates represent the highest percentages of undecided voters. While McMullin is heading in the wrong direction, he’s not lost yet, and there are still plenty of votes to scoop up, and voters who may be inclined his way. I suppose the question will be whether moderates think McMullin is acceptable, or if he’s too conservative for their taste.
• Iowa finally has a new poll, but it’s bad news for challenger Admiral Mike Franken (D). Emerson College gives Senator Grassley (R), full of mendacity and confusion, a 49% to 38% lead, with a margin of error of ± 3.1%. Do I sound disappointed in my neighbors to the south? I’d like to give them more credit than this. But, as I said, I figured this race would get away from the Democrats.
• A rated Marist Poll gives Colorado Senator Bennet (D) a 48% to 41% lead over challenger Joe O’Dea (R). While this race is not out of reach, O’Dea must be aware of Bennet’s proximity to the magical number of 50%. These numbers are much like previous polls, suggesting O’Dea cannot find traction. It’s a pity, since he appears to be a moderate, and the failure of a moderate may be food for the extremists.
• If you’re interested in tactics, WaPo’s Jennifer Rubin thinks Rep Ryan (D) just gave a master class in a debate with J. D. Vance. The Ohio race may be the nation’s closest Senate race this cycle, although Wisconsin is giving it a run for its money.
• I just noticed FiveThirtyEight is recognizing Center Street PAC as a partisan pollster for the Democratic Party – see the tool tips on the above link. Please discount their polls by at least several points.

Last time I did this, something terrible happened. I forget what.

They should all take a ski trip, and the survivors can be declared winners. That’s sort of like the former President offering to take the lead on ending Putin’s War. In other news:

• Former Maryland Lt. Governor and Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele (R) believes there is a “pink wave” coming in November, disregarded or undetected by pollsters. The pink wave are women who don’t usually vote, but will vote Democratic this cycle. Why disregarded? My guess, unsupported by experience or evidence, is that pollsters adjust raw data based on previously detected factors, and this wouldn’t be supported by previous occurrences. If Democrats do win big in November, then Steele gets credit for an insight I haven’t seen mentioned elsewhere.
• In perhaps an iconic mark of the incompetent, even childish, amateur at work, former President Trump broke Party discipline and has attacked fellow leader Senator McConnell (R) for his support of the Continuing Resolution that is keeping the government up and running during these days of hurricane (Ian) and war (Putin’s War), according to CNN/Politics:
  

  Former President Donald Trump on Friday night directly ridiculed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, saying on his social media platform that the Kentucky Republican had a “death wish” for supporting “Democrat sponsored bills.”

  Trump, in his Truth Social post, also mocked McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao – who was born in Taiwan and served as Trump’s secretary of transportation – referring to her as McConnell’s “China loving wife, Coco Chow!”

  So is this the sort of thing that’ll break the Republicans in half? While Trump’s MAGA voters may try to take him seriously, the fact of the matter is that many candidates McConnell has endorsed and even helping with his Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) are also endorsed by Trump, and those few that might not fall into that category, such as Senator Murkowski in Alaska, are already well known to the MAGA voters.

  And do the MAGA voters matter? Popular report has it that the MAGA rallies are ill-attended these days. It may be that the former President is coasting on past glories these days, despite the number of endorsed extremists of which he can boast.

  In the end, I suspect Trump’s temper tantrum, best interpreted as the wailing of someone who thinks they have fabulous political insight, but doesn’t, is little more than inadvertent entertainment for everyone who is not a Republican.

• A rated Fox News Poll reports Senator Kelly (D) leading Blake Masters 46% – 40% in Arizona. Their August poll gave Kelly an 8 point lead, but both lost ground in this poll. There is a ±3 point margin of error.
• Fox News Poll also reports that Senator Johnson (R) is now leading Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) 48% – 44% in Wisconsin. Given the conspiracy rumors in which Johnson indulges, it’s a real disappointment.
• A poll from Franklin & Marshall College Poll, B/C rated by FiveThirtyEight, gives Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) a 45% to 42% lead over Dr. Oz Mehmet (R) in Pennsylvania. This seems abnormally small, especially in view of Marist Poll just giving Fetterman a ten point lead. No margin of error is given.
• Candidate Don Bolduc (R) of New Hampshire is a flip-flopper. First, he thought there was electoral fraud in 2020. Then, soon as he became the GOP nominee for the New Hampshire Senate seat, he said research showed that’s not true, that the election had no systemic fraud. Now? Back on the election denial wagon, apparently. Frankly, he seems a bit frenzied to sit in the Senate. It was intended for sober legislators, not this guy.
• Challenger Madison Horn (D) remarks on former President Trump’s endorsement of candidate James Lankford (R) for reelection in Oklahoma.
• GOP-leaning pollster Trafalgar’s latest poll in Colorado suggests Senator Bennet’s (D) lead over challenger Joe O’Dea (R) is shrinking, 48.6% to 42.6%. If accurate, then O’Dea no longer has the mountain of changing people’s minds to climb, just the mountain of undecided independent voters to climb.
• Senator Schumer (D) of New York has a 55% – 36% lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R) according to A rated Siena College. Two months ago Schumer held a 22 point lead, according to Emerson College, but if this decay in Schumer’s lead continues, the rate of change is not enough for Pinion to pull the upset.
• Unknown to FiveThirtyEight, but reportedly conservative, pollster Civitas has North Carolina as a statistical tie, with Cheri Beasley (D), the former State Supreme Court Justice, leading Rep Ted Budd (R) 44.0% – 43.7%.

The last time I did this is here.

So much blah. You’d think we’d run out. Here, you can have some of mine.

• In the ever-popular Arizona race, Suffolk University gives incumbent Senator Kelly (D) a 49.0% to 42.2% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R). Suffolk is rated B+. Kelly’s lead has been all over the map, but this seems like a solid, middle of the road number. Meanwhile, in a bit of an echo, A rated Marist Poll suggests Senator Kelly (D) is leading 51% – 41% challenger Blake Masters (R) in Arizona. Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) signals that Masters is unsalvageable may prove correct, but I would like to see Kelly with a fifteen point lead with less than a month left. Notable remark: Among independents, Kelly (51%) receives majority support and leads Masters (34%) by double digits. A 19-point gender gap also exists. While a majority of women (55%) support Kelly, men divide (47% for Kelly to 46% for Masters). These are the remarks that I’d expect to doom Masters.
• But Pennsylvania could be even more ever-popular. Or was it more broken? Anyways, A rated Marist Poll gives Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) a 51% – 41% lead over Dr. Oz Mehmet (R). While it’s disappointing that so many Pennsylvanians think the TV celebrity with a long history of promoting snake oil deserves a position in the Senate, at least the number sounds right. Notable other finding: When thinking about midterm elections, 40% of Pennsylvania adults say inflation is the issue that is top of mind. Preserving democracy (29%), abortion (16%), immigration (7%), and health care (7%) follow. Which speaks to my observation that democracy is like sex: if you’re getting some, it’s not at the forefront of your mind. If you’re not getting it, it’s the only thing on your mind. On the other hand, A rated Fox News‘ latest Pennsylvania poll for the Senate race shows Lt Governor Fetterman (D) leading Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) 45%-41%, a statistical dead heat. Which leads to the inevitable question: Why the difference between two top ranked pollsters? I suspect the thumb on the scales at Fox News for conservatives is stronger than that at Marist. It is, after all, Fox News, although A rated is A rated. We’ll find out whose adjustments are more accurate in November. B rated InsiderAdvantage has a similar result, 44.8% to 41.7%, again within the margin of error.
• Senator Lankford (R) of Oklahoma has received former President Trump’s endorsement. Is this a good thing or a bad thing? Probably good for Lankford at the moment, but by the time Election Day has rolled around, it could be very, very bad. Nyah, who am I kidding? He’s an incumbent conservative in a highly conservative state. So far as I know there’s no blemish on his record; he seems to be a back-bencher.
• A rated Siena College gives Rep Ryan (D) a 46% – 43% lead over J. D. Vance (R) in Ohio with a margin of error of ±4.4 points. This state has become one of the hottest Senate battlegrounds, which suggests to me that the Ohio’s natural conservatives are confronting the extremist conservative views embodied in Vance, principally the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the proposal of a national abortion ban, and an opposition to divorce, and are beginning to have doubts about them. If Ryan can avoid a faux pas, he may snatch a victory here and make the Democrats two-for-two in Ohio Senators.
• In Kansas, Governor Kelly (D) has picked up another endorsement from a Republican, in this case former Governor Mike Hayden (R-KS). So? So, if Hayden is widely respected in the state, this may compel some Kansans to re-examine their views on the Senate race of incumbent Jerry Moran (R) and Mark Holland (D) and, perhaps, change their minds. Holland has a long ways to go, and must grasp after every bit. But I don’t know enough about Hayden’s reputation in the state to guess if he’s influential or not.
• Senator Blumenthal (D) of Connecticut continues to sport a large lead, this time 53% to 40%, over challenger Leora Levy (R), in a Hearst/WFSB poll. Notable: Levy, a Republican National Committee member and long-time party fundraiser, was not recognized by 36% of likely voters and 21% had no opinion of her. Among those who did, 18% were favorable and 23% unfavorable. Apparently she’s having trouble getting her message out, or she’s not campaigning just yet. But it does suggest some fallow ground to till.
• Polls are surprisingly scarce in Illinois, and my DuckDuckGo searches keep showing me a link to how Senator Duckworth (D) has a lead but has “soft” support. Maybe that’ll disappear with the A- rated Emerson College Polling result of a 19 point lead for Duckworth, 50% – 31%, over challenger and “I’m the only Republican who can defeat Tammy Duckworth in the fall!” claimant Kathy Salvi (R), which is a highly unfortunate echo of the former President and current endorser. As this is a 9 point fall for Salvi from the only other poll, she’s definitely moving the wrong way very quickly. Notable: President Joe Biden has a 49% job approval among Illinois voters, 44% disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Important? I think so. Duckworth’s 2016 victory margin? Roughly 15 points, so her current lead is not a surprise.
• Senator Hassan (D) of New Hampshire continues to have an almost-comfortable lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), 49.6% – 41.2%, according to B+ rated Suffolk University. A little higher and I’d be willing to say that Hassan seems assured of winning. But what are New Hampshire Republican voters thinking when they nominated Bolduc, and then select him in the poll? Reminds me of the time my conservative Uncle Bill, up for a visit from Illinois, asked me why the hell that “dingbat” notorious Minnesota Rep Michelle Bachmann (R) kept getting reelected. I had to say I had no idea.
• A- rated Public Policy Polling gives Senator Murray (D) a 52% – 40% lead over challenger and moderate Tiffany Smiley (R) in Washington, suggesting Republican hopes of flipping this seat are in tatters.
• B/C rated Fabrizio/Anzalone (aka FabrizioWard + Impact Research aka ALG Research – so confusing), for AARP Wisconsin, is giving Senator Johnson (R) a 51% – 46% over Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) in Wisconsin. with a ±4.4 point margin of error. Notable: Both [candidates] are viewed unfavorably by 50% of voters, with Johnson’s favorable rating (48%) a bit higher than Barnes’ (43%). Johnson’s disrespectful treatment of voters should turn off citizens; I don’t know why folks don’t like Barnes, but I don’t live there. Then again, A- rated Public Policy Polling has this race tied at 47%.

That bag of old, tepid coffee grounds may be found here.

Just another entry in a long dynasty. Like dinosaurs, but less graceful.

• An update on Senator Graham’s (R-SC) proposed legislation for a 15 week abortion ban: The Democrats are jumping all over it, and the Republicans are expressing dismay. Whether this translates to energizing voters for the pro-choice or the pro-life position remains to be seen, but clearly the Democrats believe this is an opportunity.
• There are two new polls for Pennsylvania. A CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker gives Lt Governor Fetterman (D) a 52% – 48% lead over challenger Dr. Oz Mehmet (R), with a margin of error of 3.8%. YouGov has a B+ rating from FiveThirtyEight. A Monmouth University poll gives Fetterman a 49% – 39% lead, with a 4.0% margin of error, a result more in line with polls other than Trafalgar. Monmouth is an A rated pollster by FiveThirtyEight.
• A- rated Emerson College Polling is calling the Nevada race a dead heat.
• Far-right pundit and radio host Erick Erickson has returned to insisting that “it’s the economy, stupid,” a position he had momentarily stepped away from a week ago. It may mean the lead conservatives reprimanded him, or maybe he just had second thoughts. The reason I bring this up is that in the previous Senate update, I had mentioned that the termination of Putin’s War would accrue to Biden’s account, and Democratic candidates would benefit from it politically. But, since Erickson brings it up, much of the current economic uproar, from inflation to supply line issues to simple food shortages, can be attributed to Putin’s invasion, and his deliberate destruction of Ukraine’s food production capacity and even Ukrainian produce. The termination of the war, while too late to have a material impact on the world economy, would at least provide Biden credible evidence for suggesting the economy will settle down soon enough, stripping conservatives of more ammunition. But that would require the Ukrainians to really hurry to force Putin out of power and Russia out of the war with an acceptable settlement for Ukraine. So Democrats shouldn’t bet on this, but they can hope for it.
• Emerson College Polling gives Connecticut’s incumbent Senator Blumenthal (D) a 13 point lead over challenger Leora Levy (R), 49% – 36%, with a margin of error of 3 points. This is three points less than Emerson’s poll of several months ago. Blumenthal needs to run a careful, honest campaign, and let former President Trump’s endorsement of Levy weigh her down. Emerson is rated A-.
• Oklahoma’s Sooner Poll, which FiveThirtyEight rates as C+, has finally come out with polls on both Oklahoma Senate races. In our regularly scheduled event of Madison Horn v. incumbent Senator James Lankford (R), the latter leads 52% – 35%. In our special election event of Kendra Horn (D) v. Markwayne Mullin (R) for the seat left open by retiring Senator Inhofe (R), Mullin leads 52% – 40%. The margin of error is nearly 5 points, and it still doesn’t matter, Oklahoma remains deeply conservative – except the governor’s race is very competitive.  Apparently Governor Stitt’s (R) vow to be the most extreme anti-abortionist in the land is not playing well to the crowd.
• A Marquette Law School poll shows Wisconsin incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) leading challenger Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) 49% – 48%. The margin of error is somewhere between 4.5 and 5 points. Johnson acts demented and confused, and so do, apparently, his supporters. Marquette is “A/B” rated.
• The report that the Biden Administration has helped avert a potentially crippling railroad workers strike cannot be anything but positive for Democratic office-seekers.
• Georgia polls continue to conflict as A- rated Quinnipiac University Poll says that incumbent Senator Pastor Warnock (D) leads challenger and former NFL star Herschel Walker (R) 52% – 46%.

The previous flight of outdated information is here.

Here’s my telescope. It shows me visions of the future by staring at old images of stars.

• Susquehanna Polling and Research (SPR) suggests incumbent Marco Rubio (R) is leading challenger Rep Val Demings (D) by three points, 47% – 44%, for the Florida Senate seat. SPR is a B+ rated pollster, according to FiveThirtyEight, so this may be accurate. Margin of error is 4.3%, so this is exceedingly close. And the poll was taken prior to the most recent Trump news. Will the negative Trump news affect the race as we run towards November?
• Senator Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin) appears to be a flip-flopper – or has received orders from on high, as he’s no longer supporting the same-sex marriage bill intended to safeguard gay marriage that he earlier said he would support.
• Approval of President Biden will be a drag, or an uplift, in the Senate races. How’s he doing? The chart from Civiqs via Joan McCarter, there on the right, indicates Biden is becoming less and less of a drag. And with almost two months left, he still has time to improve further.
• Senate Candidate and State Rep. Krystie Matthews (D) in South Carolina has apparently been caught on a recording device disparaging her constituents. The South Carolina Democratic Party is calling for her to leave the race. While, granted, her odds were poor against incumbent Senator Tim Scott (R), who appears to be quite circumspect and is reportedly very popular in South Carolina, pissing on your constituents is the mark of an amateur lacking a vision of good politics. Matthews disputes the reports, claiming context has been stripped – one of my pet peeves, for new readers – so it’s hard to say if, in the end, what she said is all she said, or if there are mitigating circumstances. If the latter, circumspection is a skill she needs to learn.
• Pennsylvania continues to host the most broken Senate race this year as CNBC uncovers the fact that candidate Oz Mehmet (R) … owns stock in Thermo Fisher Scientific, a supplier of the drug hydroxychloroquine, and McKesson, a distributor of the anti-malaria medicine. As Mehmet touted hydroxychloroquine’s use for treatment of Covid-19 without evidence of efficacy, this casts grave doubts on his qualifications for public service. No doubt free market advocates would dispute the assertion that it’s inappropriate to tout treatments for which there is no evidence of efficacy under the outdated slogan, Let the markets decide!, but the fact of the matter is that even when employed outside of the public sector, aspirants to positions of public service are expected to exhibit moral behavior consonant with the positions they seek.
• Emerson College is confirming Trafalgar’s polling in Arizona, reporting Senator Kelly’s (D) lead over challenger Blake Masters (R) is 47% – 45%. Arizona’s long been conservative, but Masters is no John McCain (R), the esteemed late and long-time Senator from Arizona.
• Sometimes relying on Internet search engines isn’t good enough: back on July 19th, Chris Chaffee won the Republican nomination for the Senate seat of Senator Chris Van Hollen (D) of Maryland. Color me third-rate, eh? Chaffee won with a mere 21.3% of the Republican votes, suggesting a weak candidate. Senator Van Hollen won his primary with 78.7%, which is not overwhelming, but still miles better than Chaffee. Incidentally, Van Hollen reported suffering a stroke back in May. No polls are in evidence, so I consider Van Hollen the presumptive favorite until notified otherwise.
• This Tuesday features the last of the primaries for this cycle, including the New Hampshire primaries for selecting the Senate candidates.

Older observations in expected appalling taste are here.

Ever see a train with a snowplow attachment? This is sort of the same. Don’t think about that.

• “A-” rated Trafalgar’s latest poll in Wisconsin shows Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) leading incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) 49.4% to 47.1%, which is within the margin of error. That race is tightening up as the Republicans rally to the dude who spews conspiracy theories and dementia while talking about corrupting Social Security with investments in the stock market. Maybe they don’t like their monthly checks?
• Trafalgar has more news, saying that its latest poll shows incumbent Senator Kelly (D) of Arizona has only a 3.3 point lead over incumbent Blake Masters (R), 47.6% – 43.3%. I gotta ask, then, why is Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) Senate Leadership PAC withdrawing a lot of money from that race as if they’re writing it off?
• A temporary slump or is Georgia’s collective mental infirmity going to hold until the elections? A rated Emerson College Polling now has challenger Herschel Walker (D) up by two, 46% – 44%, ahead of incumbent Senator Warnock (D). This despite a history of mendacity on Walker’s part, possibly tied to his mental illness, last manifested yesterday, when he once again claimed to be a member of law enforcement, to the groans of the crowd.
• The race in Pennsylvania continues to be badly broken as Republican candidate for the open Senate seat Dr. Oz Mehmet plays on possible electoral concerns about Democratic candidate’s and Lt. Governor John Fetterman’s stroke in a debate proposal that included “concessions” such as an earpiece for Fetterman so he could be fed answers. While, yes, the offer was an insult, it’s on par with Fetterman’s jibes about Oz’s houses (just how many does he own?) and his lack of familiarity with Pennsylvania. It’s also very true that Fetterman’s stroke is relevant to the election. Just as is Oz’s endorsements of various snake oil cures over the years.
• Another week, another “generic Congressional ballot.” This time, The Wall Street Journal says Democrats hold a slight edge over Republicans, 47% to 44% … which is an improvement over earlier measurements. I contrast this with the right’s staple contention that the economy will wreck the Democrats. I see occasional citations, by Republicans, of Democratic consultant James Carville’s famous quip concerning the Clinton 1992 winning Presidential campaign in which he beat an incumbent President, “It’s the economy, stupid.” I’m beginning to think it’s a Republican, if not simply a political, habit to strip all context from everything. Carville’s context was the recession following the Gulf War, and it wasn’t entirely the economy, but disenchantment with President Bush (43) shattering his promise of Read My Lips, No New Taxes. Purist anti-taxation Republicans wouldn’t vote for Bush after that. Today? A pandemic that floored the economy, followed by a big recovery during the Biden Admin, including amazingly low unemployment numbers; the return of jobs from overseas as companies see the dangers of long supply-lines close up and personal; supply line issues slowly being resolved; infrastructure and other legislative wins for the Democrats, showing they can get things done; the Dobbs decision by the conservative wing of SCOTUS, threatening the autonomy of women regardless of political ideology; the January 6th Insurrection, never denounced by most of the Republican Party; extremist Republican election-denier candidates; and a former Republican President who has been caught with his entire head in the cookie jar, while screaming that the Presidency should be returned to him as if it’s a magical incantation, and he may be quite serious about the magic part. The context is both pragmatic and principled, and, while the pragmatic points are, I think, a slight inclination for the Democrats and still have two months to run, the principles are all, or almost all, good for the Democrats. Their blundering over the management of the transgender issue is a festering wound in their side, it’s true. But, in general, it’s been apparent from the moment Speaker Pelosi announced the January 6th bipartisan committee that there was a strong potential that the Red Wave theory of the November elections would manifest as the Republicans weeing in their diapers as committee members Representatives Cheney (R-WY) and Kingzinger (R-IL) kicked their unprincipled and immoral former Party members right in the head, and that has come to fruition, with more to come. The discovery of government documents at Mar-a-Lago is a gift to the Democrats, contaminating the Republican Party as a pack of lawless, power-grubbing fourth-raters. Senator McConnell (R-KY) may be anticipating being Majority Leader in 2023, but, for me, he’d better be praying really, really hard. There’s a potential for the Democrats picking up seven seats in the Senate, and a wild guess of 15 seats in the House, but that’s a best-scenario forecast. There’s plenty of time for both sides to disembowel themselves.

Previous snowdrifts here.

Yes, more, more. They never stop, do they?

• The final qualifier for the Senate seat race in Alaska is Buzz Kelley (R). In this RCV non-partisan primary, here are the rough numbers: Murkowski (R) 43.7%, Tshibaka (R) 40.4%, Chesbro (D) 6.2%, and Buzz Kelley (R) 2.2%. If Murkowski wins despite the endorsement of Tshibaka by former President Trump and the Alaska Republican Party, will the Party fade into irrelevance? This may be more likely than is first apparent, because the lone Alaskan seat in the US House is currently empty due to the death of the last seatholder, longtime Representative Don Young (R). The special election was held Aug 16th and is currently led by … Democrat Mary Peltola. But a lot of vote counting must still be performed. If Peltola wins the runoff for a couple of months of seat-filling, and then wins the regular election in November, has the Alaskan electorate given the Alaska Republican Party the big waveoff, basically telling the extremists to get out of town?
• The Kansas Reflector has an interview and profile of Kansas candidate Mark Holland (D).
• North Carolina’s contest between Rep Budd (R) and Cheri Beasley (D) is called “a dead heat” by the Civitas Institute, a conservative pollster. Each of the two candidates polled at 42.3%. This organization is not known to FiveThirtyEight, and so evaluating the poll is a bit difficult.
• A Trafalgar poll in Ohio gives J. D. Vance (R) a five point lead over Rep Ryan (D). Trafalgar is rated A- by FiveThirtyEight.
• A rated Fox News gives Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) a 50% – 46% lead over incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) in Wisconsin’s Senate race, which is within the margin of error. The consolation prize is that Johnson supporters are more enthused. Apparently, they want to lose their Social Security checks?
• Nevada’s Reno Gazette teams with Suffolk University to produce a poll showing incumbent Senator Masto (D) leading challenger Adam Laxalt (R) 45% – 38%. The last poll I saw gave Masto a three point lead, so this is a problem for Laxalt, who is Trump-endorsed. Suffolk is rated B+ by FiveThirtyEight. Masto appears to be benefiting from the Dobbs decision motivating Democratic voters. Is Masto safe yet? No. Trafalgar has released a poll showing Laxalt leading by three, 47%-44%. I’d wait until Masto, or Laxalt, has a twelve point lead before considering them safe.
• A rated Fox News gives incumbent Senator Kelly (R) of Arizona an eight point lead over Blake Masters (R), a considerable comedown from the fourteen point lead awarded by newcomer pollster Center Street PAC last week. That’ll learn me, darnit. But it’s still a lead outside of the margin of error in a purple state. In other news, though, another Republican+Independent group of forty leaders have announced their support for Kelly rather than Masters.
• It appears Rep Deming (D) has won the right in the primary to challenge Senator Rubio (R) for his seat in the Senate from Florida. The second place finishing Democrat didn’t exceed 10%.
• In Missouri John Wood (I) has ended his candidacy in the wake of Eric Schmitt’s defeat of Eric Greitens in the Senate primary.
• Oklahoma’s Rep Markwayne Mullin (R) will be the Republican’s nominee for the open Oklahoma Senate seat, as the Trump endorsee defeats T. W. Shannon with 65% of the primary vote. Does this signal a crack in the Republican voters? Probably not, but a poll would be welcome.
• In Washington McLaughlin & Associates claims the race between incumbent Murray (D) and challenger Smiley (R) is 49% – 43% for Murray, much tighter than other polls of this race. As I’ve noted before, this pollster is rated “C/D” by FiveThirtyEight, and in another negative note, RealClearPolitics, an aggregator of polls, does not appear to be willing to use this pollster.

A vague gesture of previous report & prediction here.

Mere speculation and completely made up guesswork: That’s how Republicans appear to be defending the former President. But enough of the sideshow, let’s go see the Senators! Can you tell the Minnesota State Fair is imminent?

• New Hampshire’s incumbent Senator Maggie Hassan (D) may not yet know her general election opponent, which will be determined in a Sep 13 primary, but if the three GOP candidates who showed up for a debate last weekend are the top candidates, and participant Don Bolduc, a retired brigadier general, leads the pack by quite a lot, then the New Hampshire Republican Party is unlikely to snap up Hassan’s seat in November. Brandishing far-right positions such as abolishing the FBI as well as the 17th Amendment, which would make the state legislatures responsible again for selecting Senators – evidently because trusting voters is too much for this crew – they are emblematic of a GOP that has been RINOing its way to the right in a blind fury of power madness and, I suspect, will go right off a cliff in November, screaming, yet again, of a stolen election, wearing their badge of righteousness on their sleeves, while leaving the cloak of humility in the closet. Ahem. Putting the soapbox away now. Sorry about that.
• In the first poll for any Senate contest I’ve seen since the FBI visit to Mar-a-Lago, University of North Florida reports that Florida incumbent Senator and Trump ally Marco Rubio (R) now trails challenger Rep Val Demings (D) by four points, 48%-44%, among registered voters; that 4 point gap is greater than the margin of error. University of North Florida polls are rated “A/B” by FiveThirtyEight, so there may be some credibility in this poll. I’d like to see several polls from different sources coming to the same conclusion before thinking Rubio’s likely to lose, but I will add Rubio to the list of endangered Republican Senators.
• Speaking of endangered Republican seats, Jennifer Rubin notes a report from  The New York Times that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is cutting advertising budgets in Pennsylvania, where Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman reportedly has a large lead over Republican and neophyte Dr. Mehmet Oz, Arizona, where Senator Mark Kelly (D) is facing extremist and political neophyte Blake Masters (R) and reportedly has a fourteen point lead, and, surprisingly, Wisconsin, where Senator Ron Johnson, whose sanity could easily be questioned, will be facing off against recently selected candidate and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) [later note: See more on Barnes vs Johnson below]. If the NRSC is ceding Wisconsin, that’s huge news and is beginning to make the potential Senate gains for the Democrats look shocking – and confirm my thesis that the American electorate has little patience for extremists, who now make up most or all of the Republican Party, regardless of where we are in the election cycle. Democratic would-be extremists, take note and shut up.
• Alaska’s primary has yielded the following promotions to the general election: incumbent and Trump-hated Senator Lisa Murkowski (R), Trump endorsee Kelly Tshibaka (R), followed at some distance by Patricia Chesbro (D) and a player to be named later. This is rather better for the Senator than predicted, strengthening my suspicion of a victory for her, barring black swans. Remember, this is a Ranked Choice Voting state (RCV), which works to moderates’ advantage, and Murkowski may be the most moderate Republican Senator out there.
• 

  Senator Thune’s (R) On The Issues summation. Yep, he’s about to fall off the edge of the world there, isn’t he?

  If I’m to believe this poll, South Dakota citizens mostly reject abortion extremists who try to outright ban abortion, although they may disapprove of abortion itself. It’s that nuance that makes me doubt this suggests this is trouble for incumbent Senator John Thune (R), regardless of the magnitude of his extremist measurement from On The Issues. Show me a couple polls with Thune trailing challenger Brian Bengs (D) and I’ll change my tune, although satisfying noted Thune-hater DJ Trump would be a bit galling.

• In the first poll in Wisconsin since primary voters selected incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) and Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) as the last additions to the 2022 Senate race in Wisconsin, and the first Wisconsin poll since the Mar-a-Lago visit by the FBI, Marquette University Law School Poll, an “A/B” rated pollster according to FiveThirtyEight, gives Barnes a seven point lead, 51%-44%. While this may fluster the timid pundit pool, it’s what I hoped to see when I wrote about the burdens Johnson is carrying: a history of conspiracy theories, possible dementia, and the overwhelming weight of the Wisconsin GOP, who appears to be exceptionally lost in the wilderness, probably not to return until most of the membership is ejected and former members invited to rejoin.
• It seems unlikely, but keep in mind that Senator Inhofe’s (R-OK) seat will lack an incumbent defender in November, and his seat in red, red, red Oklahoma may be in danger if favored successor wannabe Markwayne Mullin (R), who has not yet won the primary runoff scheduled for August 23, continues putting his foot in his mouth with such statements as
  

  “We saw this media frenzy about supposedly classified information — where was this same media frenzy when there was 33,000 classified emails on a server in a bathroom with Hillary Clinton?” Mullin asked, indignantly. “Why didn’t they raid that bathroom?” [TPM].

  Since there were 133 classified emails and Secretary Clinton delivered the email server up on request, unlike the former President and his stolen documents, Mullin is now vulnerable to charges of lying by his challengers, primary runoff mate T. W. Shannon (R), and if he slips by Shannon, general election challenger Kendra Horn (D). As noted before, it’s worth keeping half an eye on this Oklahoma contest. I suppose a poll is unlikely until after the runoff. I’m such a member of the Instant Gratification Generation.

• Summarizing current Democratic status: Seats probably lost: None. Seats I currently consider to be in danger: None. Seats that had been thought to be in danger a few months ago, but now no longer so considered: Arizona, Georgia, Washington, New Hampshire. Not enough data: Colorado, Nevada.
• Summarizing current Republican status: Seats probably lost: Pennsylvania, Ohio. Seats I currently consider to be in danger: – Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Wisconsin. If things break just right, Republicans may also lose: Missouri, Kansas, Utah (to independent Evan McMullin), Kentucky. Not enough data: any seat currently held by a Republican for which no polls of relevance available. There’s blood in the water, folks.

More flubs concerning Senate races are here.

You’d think they’d tire of the sausage-maker of news.

• Progressives would like to believe the Florida matchup between Senator Rubio (R) and Rep Demings (D) is now even, but both cited poll sources are strongly progressive, so the grain of salt is large.
• Attempts to weaponize the mysterious Republican urge to not cap insulin prices for privately insured individuals may be alluring, but a strong message shouldn’t try to communicate a complicated thought.
• In Connecticut, incumbent Senator Richard Blumenthal (D) now knows his Republican opponent. Leora Levy is a Trump endorsee and won yesterday’s primary by 10 points. However, her political experience is, as one might expect of a Trump-endorsee in a blue state, extremely limited. Will a far-right extremist appeal to Connecticut independent voters? Back in May, Emerson College Polling, rated A- by FiveThirtyEight, gave Blumenthal a 16 point lead over Levy – but that was months and months ago. Time for another poll to see if intervening events have had an effect on Connecticut voters.
• In Vermont, Democratic Rep. Peter Welch won the Democratic nod to replace retiring Senator Leahy (D), winning more votes in his primary run than all the Republicans running in the Republican primary put together. Welch’s Republican opponent will be the inexperienced Army veteran Gerald Malloy, who only won with a plurality. I want a poll, but I expect Welch to cruise to victory in this blue stronghold.
• In Wisconsin, Tuesday’s primary yielded the expected Senate result: incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) vs Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D).
• Arizona’s Senate race now has its first poll since its primary last week, and it shows incumbent Senator Kelly (D) with a shocking 14 point lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters. The pollster is Center Street PAC, a new pollster, so it’s hard to assess whether or not they are credible, even as I’ve run across them repeatedly for this year’s races. Arizona is known to be tracking more to the left, at least since the passing of Senator McCain (R) in 2018, but a jump like this on general principle is unlikely. I suspect that Masters and his backers, former President Trump and Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, all known extremists, are personally responsible for this poor polling result. I look forward to a poll from a known and A-rated quantity, such as Fox News or SurveyUSA, on this race, and for now cannot consign this race to be safe for either party. But it may turn out that Senator Kelly owes Masters’ two backers a Thank You! note or two.
• While the Republican hysteria over the Mar-a-Lago FBI raid has a number of factors, for Senate races there has to be some highly credible worries that the former President will act like a black hole in terms of potential damage to the empty shell of high morality Republicans like to project, as well as the very real and tangible damage that may occur for all Senatorial candidates who are perceived as tied, or allied to, the former President and his agenda, fragmentary as it is. Indeed, for one or two of them, this event may be the incident that pushes them into political oblivion; contrariwise, for any Democratic Senators up for reelection that were in trouble, few as they seem to be, this may be the lifeline that they climb to safety.
• The boomerang issue of the election season? Republicans love to portray themselves as law & order types, but, ya know, tax law is law, too. So why are the Republicans outraged at the idea of increasing funding for the Internal Revenue Service? This is the question that can bother quite a few voters, if it’s presented properly – and I’m sure the Democrats will so present it. Are Republicans trying to protect their patrons, as well as themselves, from tax investigations? They’re trying to stir up the ol’ fear thing, but the IRS has already stated that anyone making less than $400,000 will not have an increased chance of investigation.

The relentless flood’s predecessors are here. Your fellow audience members are below.

It’ll soon be August 2nd. Then it’ll be August 2nd. And then it’ll be past, and maybe some news will blow in through the door, riding a rogue tumbleweed.

• In New York, the latest Emerson College poll finds incumbent Senator and Majority Leader Schumer (D) leading challenger and radio pundit Joe Pinion (R) 53% – 31%.
• In Missouri, as if that election is not enough of a dumpster fire, independent John Wood claims to have collected and filed enough signatures on petitions to make the November ballot. It seems likely that this enhances the Democrats’ chances in this election, as Wood claims to be a lifelong Republican, but it’s hard to be certain. And it may not be enough. Especially with Trump’s endorsement of “ERIC”. On the other hand, the dumpster fire was damped down by the GOP when they selected relative-to-Eric-Greitens moderate and current Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt over Greitens, who came in third, and second place finisher Rep Vicky Hartzler (R-MO). Schmitt must still contend with the results of a bitter primary and the presence of Mr. Wood on the ballot. Meanwhile, Trudy Busch Valentine, who is politically inexperienced, a nurse, and heir to the Anheuser-Busch fortune, won the Democratic side of the Senate primary. The safe bet in this contest is Schmitt. A May poll from A-rated SurveyUSA showed Schmitt with a 13 point advantage over Valentine, but a lot has happened since then. We need a new poll.
• Is Senate Majority Leader Schumer’s decision to do a deal with Senator and Minority Leader McConnel (R-KY) in order to pass the Honoring Our PACT Act a mistake? After all, it seems to make a nice club for Democrats to use on Republicans. However, there are some problems with that reasoning. If it’s not passed, then veterans may choose to blame both sides, so in this way the Democrats get some extra points; and not many actual Republican candidates in the Senate voted No, maybe two by my informal count, so its usefulness was somewhat problematic. I think Schumer has simply wrung a few more drops from the rag.
• Wisconsin incumbent Ron Johnson (R) either knows more than I do about the electorate, or is committing political suicide-by-voter. From Madison.com: Saying programs like Social Security and Medicare suffer from improper oversight, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson on Tuesday called for turning every government program into discretionary spending programs, meaning Congress would have to allocate funding for the programs each year. You don’t need to listen carefully, the shrieks from the AARP should be REALLY LOUD. It’ll be fascinating to see how the first poll of Johnson vs Barnes turns out.
• In Arizona Blake Masters, political novice, endorsee of the former President, and funded by Peter Thiel, won the GOP Senate primary and will be challenging incumbent Senator and retired astronaut (US Navy Captain, ret.) Mark Kelly (D). Arizona has been shifting from a strong Republican state to a more ambiguous status over the last five years, with Kelly winning a special election two years ago over the appointed Senator McSally (R), who exhibited a record and presence that had a lot in common with Senators Perdue (R-GA) and Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), both of whom also lost in that year. Masters seems emblematic of the next stage of the GOP toxic culture evolution, sending arrogant candidates into contests that are certain that, if they lose, the loss indicates cheating rather than simply losing, dependent on one or two “strong-men” rather than any personal appeal of their own – and perish the thought of a demonstrated personal competency in government! Even the anti-abortion waltz or anti-gun control jig is optional; one must snuffle up to the strong men of the party, an extreme example of what I’ve been predicting for years. Anyways. Waiting for the first poll, but I suspect independents will be so repelled by Masters that it’s Kelly in a walk. Kelly was thought to be vulnerable, so this may be another dodged meteorite by the Democrats. Sorry ’bout that.
• The biggest news out of the August 2nd primaries was Kansas’ voters rejection of a proposed state Constitutional Amendment to permit the Kansas legislature to ban abortion in some form, as I discussed here. Kansas is considered to be safely Republican, despite the Governor being a Democrat, so this rejection is a surprise – a 20 point surprise. Adding to the significance, kos of Daily Kos has some new information, although he doesn’t source it: “That means at least 75,000 Republicans voted no, plus the overwhelmingly majority of the 160,000 voters who came to vote only on this amendment and didn’t vote in either party’s primary.” There are two facets here, the first being that voters will come out simply to vote against threats to their (or their partners’) abortion rights, and secondly that a good portion of the moderate-to-conservative base resent the loss of those rights. In the latter case, this may result in a failure to vote for a candidate, or even switching a vote to an opponent or using the write-in option. While Republican pundits, as well as candidates such as Senator Johnson (R-WI) and Adam Laxalt (R-NV), have been trying to claim the Dobbs decision overturning Roe will have little impact in November (see the Daily Kos link, above), it appears that every election featuring a fervently anti-abortion candidate will be impacted, just as every left-leaning pundit, and many independent pundits like myself, suspected. The conservative tendency towards an epistemic bubble, as well as a fixation on improper metrics (the Justice Thomas mistake, to coin a phrase), seems to be leading them not towards victory in November, but a shocking failure against a bumbling Democratic Party that still has not addressed its failures in managing the transgender issue.

Previous irreligious thoughts regarding the election here.

People who like prominences. Maybe.

• The Manchin-Schumer suckering of Senator McConnell (R-KY) and the Senate Republicans on the reconciliation bill – here’s Steve Benen’s summary of the incident – may be the gift that keeps on giving. In revenge, the Republicans unexpectedly killed the all-but-passed Honoring Our PACT Act, which is a Veteran’s healthcare bill related to “burn pits,” a military base hazard. This can be expected to excite questions on the campaign trail, even for Republican Senators who voted to pass it on the second try. Now it appears codification of gay marriage at the Federal level may be endangered, according to Senator Collins (R-ME), and that won’t go over well with the gay community, a group that otherwise has been slowly moving towards a more conservative political viewpoint, or with supporters of justice for all Americans. What will be Republicans’ next target that can be turned on them during the campaign?
• In Wisconsin, all serious Democratic candidates except Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes have dropped out of the primary, leaving Barnes as the likely Democratic nominee for Senator Johnson’s (R) seat in the Senate, although it’s worth noting that not all the drop outs are official and the primary, as of this writing, is still scheduled to occur. On the Republican side, Senator Johnson and David Schroeder are in the primary. I should think it’ll be Johnson vs Barnes in the general election, and Johnson will have a hill to climb. But how big a hill?
• Lt Governor Fetterman’s (D) lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in the Pennsylvania race to fill Senator Toomey’s (R) soon-to-be-empty Senate seat is up to 11 points, at 47-36, according to a Fox News poll. Is it safely a Democratic acquisition yet? And when will former President Trump dis-endorse Oz for failing to take a lead? The former President is so desperate to look successful that he might end up endorsing … deep breath … Democrat Fetterman! Not kidding, either.
• Famed statistician Nate Silver thinks New Hampshire incumbent and candidate Senator Hassan (D) has a good chance of winning reelection, but knows that New Hampshire can be quite swingy and hard to predict.
• In North Carolina, local political experts believe the Beasley (D) vs Budd (R) contest to fill a future empty Senate seat currently occupied by Senator Richard Burr (R) to be too close to call. If President Biden manages to repair his national approval rating between now and November, it may be enough to push Beasley over the top, beating Trump-endorsed Budd. I expect Biden to, in fact, recover in the polls with his recent legislative victories, clarified messaging, and inevitable Republican bungling.
• The latest Fox News poll in Georgia gives Senator Warnock (D) a four point lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R), which is within the margin of error. Fox is A-rated by FiveThirtyEight. Notice how Warnock’s lead bounces from a couple of points to ten points, there’s nothing guaranteeing a victory for either nominee.

Tomorrow is the August 2nd primaries, which should answer one or two more questions, mostly in Arizona. Slightly out of date previous amateur analysis is here.

They just keep dancin’!

• Vice found a recording of Ohio GOP Senate nominee J. D. Vance advocating married couples exhibiting domestic violence stay together, made during a talk at Pacifica Christian High School. This is a test, but not of Vance. It’s a test of his opponent, Rep Tim Ryan (D), and Ryan’s allies, because there’s a lot of nuance going on here. Vance himself grew up in a violent family, and wrote about it in Hillbilly Elegy, so he has first hand knowledge. His response to a request for comment has, I think, some subtly incorrect logic to it – he’s confusing a dependent variable for an independent variable, which alters the character of the article, and the final conclusion. But I do have to respect his first-hand knowledge, although I think the imposition of a one-size-fits-all rule such as his “marriage is sacred and therefore divorce shouldn’t happen” is a basic mistake. But if Ryan or his allies try to make this into a campaign issue, they may end up alienating a significant fraction of the electorate who still believe in the sacredness of the institution of marriage. All it takes is respect for that view, even if you think it has limits. Will the Democrats figure this out? Will Vance have to try to bait them into a trap?
• Wisconsin’s embattled Senator Johnson (R), fighting for his political career, has “signaled” support for same-sex marriage, presumably in a bid for some independent votes this November. Then he voted against a Veteran’s health care bill that he had earlier voted for; it had been returned to the Senate for “technical reasons.” Sounds like he got confused, and, as I’ve mentioned before, the Senator appears to be suffering from dementia.
• Alaska’s Juneau Empire: “Add another unusual poll number to U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s history of them, as a survey published Monday states her net job approval rating has increased by 22% since President Joe Biden took office.” Noted Murkowski-hater Donald J. Trump appears to be headed for disappointment this November.
• In Missouri NBC News may have the reason for Greitens fall in the polls: “A super PAC aimed that’s [sic] been attacking former GOP Gov. Eric Greitens is outspending other groups and candidates ahead of next week’s Senate primary in Missouri, and it appears to be driving down Greitens’ standing in the race.” My question: if the winner isn’t Greitens, will the winner be to the left or the right of Greitens? And will he engage in violence if he loses?
• The latest AJC poll for Georgia shows Senator Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker (R) by 3 points. Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver has 3% support in the poll, and may split the Republican vote if he persists. A-rated SurveyUSA gives Warnock a commanding 9 point lead in their latest poll. Pundit Erick Erickson still believes in Walker. I remain of the opinion that voting for Walker is a sign of either the ignorance or the political depravity of the Georgia electorate.
• Senator Kelly (D) of Arizona has the formal support of the very small moderate Republican group Republicans for Kelly. Will it be possible to tell if it has any effect on the overall vote? My guess is that the winner of the Republican primary will be so extreme that Kelly will win the general election without too much difficulty, but it’s only a guess.
• Finally, Republican base enthusiasm for a party that seems to be run by a pack of dubious characters, as measured by small dollar donations, may be substantially less than Democratic base enthusiasm for their own candidates. I’ve seen this mentioned in several sources, here’s WaPo. If a good measure, it suggests the Democrats may not be losing control of the House or the Senate in November, errrr, January, oh whatever’s the proper month. I continue to think that seven Republican Senate seats are in danger, Democrats may have one or two in danger. We’ll know more when more primaries are completed and polls conducted after that.

Previous prancing here.

What? More news?

• Professor Richardson reminds me that Senator Grassley (R-IA) made noises about presiding over the counting of Electoral Votes on January 5th, 2020, and thus replacing VP Mike Pence, who had already made clear that he had no intention in participating in the former President’s alleged illegal scheme to stop the counting of the Electoral votes. This was later walked back by Grassley’s staff. Why is this important? His opponent in this year’s election, Mike Franken, might be well advised to use this information to tie Grassley to the disgraced former President, who is taking destructive body blows from the House investigating committee. If Grassley is successfully associated with a scheme to overturn a democratic and fair election, Iowa voters may decide they’ve had enough of Grassley.
• The release of the report LOST, NOT STOLEN: The Conservative Case that Trump Lost and Biden Won the 2020 Presidential Election, by various main-line conservatives who exhaustively analyze and reject all the Trumpian claims concerning the 2020 Presidential election, may or may not have an impact on the Senate elections featuring Trump allies.
• Yay, Nevada has a poll: Senator Cortez Masto (D) leads challenger Adam Laxalt (R), 44-41, with 6 points more planning to vote independent, and 9% are undecided. This is an Emerson College Polling result; FiveThirtyEight considers Emerson College Polling to be an A- outfit. This lead seems precarious.
• Yay, Washington has a poll, too: Senator Murray (D) leads challenger Tiffany Smiley (R) by 18 points, according to SurveyUSA. This pollster gets an ‘A’ grade from FiveThirtyEight. Smiley has quite the hill to climb. Interestingly, she rates as a moderate, at least according to By The Issues (see Washington link, above), so I’m not sure if the far-right extremists refuse to vote for her, and/or if the independents are so disgusted with the Republicans that she’s catching the blowback.
• Georgia continues to get lots of coverage: the Georgia AARP conducted a poll showing incumbent Senator Warnock (D) leading challenger Herschel Walker by three points, 50-47. Those are high numbers for this early in the race. I have no idea if Georgia AARP polling is respectable or not.
• I somehow missed that newcomer Natalie James (D) won the Democratic primary and thus the right to challenge incumbent Senator John Boozman (R) in Arkansas. No polls noted as of yet, so no new drama.
• In Iowa, a Des Moines Register/MediaCom poll gives incumbent Senator Grassley (R) an eight point lead, leaving challenger Michael Franken (D) quite a hill to climb. However, FiveThirtyEight admits to no knowledge concerning this pollster, so it’s difficult to guess as to its accuracy. Franken’s challenge is certainly less than Grassley’s 35 point average victory margin.
• Finally, my current summary of seats in danger. Democrats: Senator Masto in Nevada may be the most in peril, with a 3 point lead over Adam Laxalt, although Warnock of Georgia may or may not be in trouble, and a few Democrats remain unknowns due to unconcluded GOP primaries, such as Kelly of Arizona. Republican seats in danger or worse: Pennsylvania (incumbent retiring), Ohio (incumbent retiring), North Carolina (incumbent retiring), Johnson of Wisconsin, maybe even Lee of Utah, shockingly Missouri (incumbent retiring), and Iowa, as Senator Grassley may only be up by five – eight points and has potentially very bad news looming on the horizon.

Previous, old, tattered updates here.

Since the last update …

• Wisconsin Senator Johnson (R) was apparently involved in the January 6th insurrection in that he was asked to deliver two slates of fake electors to VP Mike Pence (R) during the ceremonial count. A Pence aide told Johnson’s aide to not make the delivery. When asked about this on Wednesday, Johnson pretended he was on his phone. How this will affect the general election remains to be seen.
• Also in Wisconsin, the previously mentioned large number of GOP challengers to Senator Johnson in the primary have shrunk to one, Doug Schroeder. Some test polling by Marquette University indicates Johnson is down by only modest amounts to the most likely winners of the Democratic primary.
• In Missouri, candidate and disgraced former governor Eric Greitens’ lead in the Republican Senate primary has the Republican leadership thoroughly spooked, to the extent that they’re trying to sabotage it. Which is not unprecedented, I feel sure. I think the part the Republican leadership is missing is that someday soon, due to the toxic team culture they’ve long engendered, they’ll be replaced by Greitens lookalikes.
• Congress has managed to pass a modest gun bill. Its significance for the Senate elections? Now Republicans cannot be credibly accused of ignoring the deaths of children in favor of their ideology, or so they think. It’s important to note that of the fifteen Republican Senators who voted for the bill, only two, Young of Indiana and Murkowski of Alaska, are up for reelection, and of these two, only Murkowski is running a real risk. Four of the thirteen remaining Senators are retiring at the end of this Congress, which I believe is all the Republicans who are retiring, and so they’re not endangering their careers. The remaining nine face, at worst, a delayed reaction in two+ or four+ years, unless the extreme step of a recall is orchestrated by the far-right gun rights absolutists. Those Republicans who voted NO and are up for reelection will face uncomfortable questions over the matter, as will Young and Murkowski over their YES votes, and the importance of that will vary from State to State.
• With regards to those Republicans voting YES on the gun bill, it may be worth tracking their political donations over the next few years to see if there’s any impact.
• Roe v Wade was overturned. While I haven’t, and won’t, read the opinion, because I’m tired of being irritated with Alito’s broken logic from last time, I will note that conservatives are trying to calm the waters. I don’t know if it’s working, but after reading Erickson’s piece (partial – I won’t listen to him) and O. Carter Snead’s forced, shallow piece, I doubt many pro-choicers will be convinced. But it may have quite some impact on some close Senate races if non-political independents who normally don’t vote are so infuriated that they turn out and vote. This may or may not show up in polling, and it may simply not occur. But there is potential.

aNow that the primaries are half finished and mostly tabulated and decided – for those not paying attention, Rep Cawthorn (R-NC), a member of what I’ll informally call the Young Right-Wing Crazies Caucus, was successfully primaried by state Sen. Chuck Edwards (R-NC), despite a late endorsement from former President Trump – an overview of the upcoming elections to the Senate seems appropriate.

For those just rising from their stone couches, the Senate is split 50-50, with VP Kamala Harris (D) providing the deciding vote when necessary, which is reportedly quite often. The Democrats, who have the advantage of defending only 14 seats to the Republicans’ 21, and of facing a Party from which an attempted insurrection was sparked, and which then failed to condemn it, would in normal times be heavily favored. However, their own missteps may be crippling them.

Let’s start with brief discussions of possible factors, nation-wide, in this election cycle.

Inflation is a favorite topic of right-wing pundits. At 8% or so, it sounds terrible, although I think the Turks would swoon to have such an inflation rate, seeing as their’s is apparently over 70%, although I wonder at interpreting the source article.  On sober assessment, much of inflation, particularly of fossil fuels, is owed to Putin’s War (the invasion of Ukraine by Russia), but often blamed on the Biden Administration.

And don’t be fooled by claims that the United States is “energy independent.” Our fossil fuel companies are, truthfully, international companies hooked into an efficient international transit industry for a fungible product. An impact in one part of the world, such as Europe cutting off Russian oil supplies, will inevitably ripple all through that network. We produce and export more fossil fuel than we import, it’s true, but that doesn’t isolate us from price impacts.

Lack of achievement, traceable to Republican refusal to even permit debate on legislation that is not trivial nor Ukrainian aid, makes it hard for individual Senators to distinguish themselves in the area of achievements. Some, like Senator Cruz (R-TX), have learned how to run their mouths and distinguish themselves that way, but, given the low quality of his analysis and rhetoric, it’s hardly impressive.

The Afghanistan withdrawal, which left thirteen Americans dead, as mandated by former President Trump, may have some impact. While, on analysis, it’s difficult to see how President Biden could have changed his reaction without violating treaties signed by the former President, most Americans saw chaos, rather than an amazingly efficient withdrawal. While Senators had little to nothing to do with the incident, it may impact some contests.

Gun-related homicides, of which the Buffalo, NY, and Uvalde, TX massacres are leading examples, and the weak or, in at least one instance, utterly incoherent Republican responses, may influence voters who are also parents.

The sexual assault scandal of the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC) may have an effect on the voting patterns of a group that has been conservative for decades. While the evangelical proportion of the electorate has been shrinking for much of that time, they’ve been a potent voting bloc throughout the South.

But will this continue? The revelation that the SBC has been suppressing reports of sexual assaults by member pastors, not been disciplining those pastors effectively, nor reporting them to the police, and not supporting the victims, may shake the evangelicals to their roots. After all, it’s been these same pastors and leaders who’ve led the charge, mostly surreptitiously, but even overtly, against those evil, God-forsaken liberals. The realization that they’ve been mislead in this area may lead to reevaluations in all areas, even including abortion.

Might the bloc fracture and begin evaluating the political leadership potential of liberals? Some evangelicals, while remaining in the sect, may vote Democratic for the first time in their lives.

Political mismanagement by the Democrats tends to have more impact than the same by the Republicans, perhaps because Democrats of the far left are more often advocates for social change in a nation that is probably best described as center-right.

But advocates is a weak word these days. As I’ve noted before, the far left has shown a thread of autocracy in their approach to, ahem, advocacy, perhaps most notably in their utter botch and continued disregard for taking responsibility in the management of the transgender issue. Note that I speak extremely precisely here: I am not addressing the issue of transgenderism itself, but the political management of it. Its sudden appearance in Federal regulations, sans discussion and debate, with an autocratic flare, may be the deciding factor in why the Democrats are not expected to do well this November. If this seems nonsensical, compare to the discussions and debates concerning gay marriage, which began in 1992. Gay marriage was legalized nation-wide in 2015, meaning we had some 23 years of debate and discussion first. Was there equivalent debate of transgender issues? So far as I and others can tell, there was none. And that’s a serious abrogation of the liberal democracy model, which is far more important than most realize.

But other issues come under this heading: the disastrous Defund the police! slogan, since discarded and repudiated by moderate elements of the Democrats, but not all of the far-left; advocacy for Modern Monetary Theory, which, to most folks, including me, sounds like wishful thinking nonsense; ill-advised use of terminology that sounds much like socialism to new immigrant-citizens adverse to socialism, such as Cubans and Venezuelans; and attacks, both rhetorical and real, on historical figures revered by most Americans, such as George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, et al, without regard to historical context and, in some cases, simple historical facts.

I think these all unsettle independent voters who might otherwise be inclined to vote for the Democrats. This, despite the comparison of a thread of autocracy to the Republican Party’s blanket of autocracy.

I calls them as I sees them.

The January 6th Insurrection investigation, which I think is the great wildcard of the election, has had its first television appearance. This gives the independents a chance to learn just what transpired on the eponymous date. If they are paying attention, and don’t treat this as just more entertainment or settling of political grudges, this may change the balance of some races; it’s even possible that a Trump endorsement may go from a much sought after political fob to an anchor hanging from the necks of those who’ve received it.

But that still remains to be seen.

Many of these issues will doom the Democrats to not hold onto a 50-50 split Senate, which VP Harris tips towards the Democrats, or the House of Representatives.

Or so goes the common wisdom.

On the other hand, Senator McConnell, leader of the GOP in the Senate, has to, and does, worry about the quality of the Republican candidates, who tend to be fourth-raters with extremist views, and about the base, who think competency means corrupt, and moderation and humility is not better than arrogance and extremism. Such views do not impress most independents, who are the pivot of the election. Nominating an abortion extremist, or someone with bizarre views on life such as this guy, or a 2^nd Amendment absolutist, will not go over well with independents who are otherwise looking for reasonable alternatives to Democrats.

Is it an opportunity for a new third party? That’s a tough, tough sell, but the presence of Senators Sanders (I-VT) and King (I-ME) in the Senate suggests it’s not impossible for voters to think outside the box. Jennifer Rubin of WaPo thinks the promisingly named Moderate Party has a chance. I could see Evan McMullin and many other former GOP members joining such a party, along with some conservative Democrats. But it’s almost certainly too late for this election cycle.

So with no further ado, here’s my mini-analyses of the 2022 Senate contests.

Index

| Alabama | Alaska | Arizona | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Florida | Georgia | Hawaii | Idaho | Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Kansas | Kentucky | Louisiana | Maryland | Missouri | Nevada | New Hampshire | New York | North Carolina | North Dakota | Ohio | Oklahoma | Oregon | Pennsylvania | South Carolina | South Dakota | Utah | Vermont | Washington | Wisconsin |

Alabama

Long time member of the Senate Richard Shelby (R) is retiring at the end of the 2022 term, but this is Alabama and hardly seems a pickup opportunity for the Democrats.

Except, this is  the Alabama GOP, the same Alabama GOP that nominated Judge Roy Moore for a special election to fill an empty Senate seat in 2018, and thereby handed that Senate seat to Doug Jones (D), who subsequently lost it to Tommy Tuberville (R), which may be another illustration of the state of the Alabama citizenry.

Primaries have been held, with now-Trump-endorsed Katie Britt and Rep, and former Trump endorsee, Mo Brooks making it to the runoff. Neither seem to have the scandal necessary to gives the Democrats a chance, although Brooks is slightly entangled in the January 6th insurrection imbroglio. Were he to win the runoff, and then the January 6th committee reveal some gross misconduct on his part, it might be enough to make him vulnerable, if GOP voters were to stay away in disgust. If if if, eh?

Among the Democrats, Will Boyd has won the primary overwhelmingly. His electoral experience is confined to losing campaigns, which should come as no surprise in Alabama; otherwise, he appears to be a college denizen, having a number of academic degrees, in engineering as well as theology. Will that be good enough?

Looks for the Republicans to retain this seat, absent a major scandal.

Alaska

Alaska is using an unusual jungle primary from which the top four vote-getters progress to the general election.

But let’s be honest. The incumbent is Senator Lisa Murkowski (R), and this is Murkowski-land, as her father also served as an Alaskan Senator and Governor. The far-right of the Alaska GOP may hate her, they may not endorse her, Trump may see red every time he hears her name, but she won as a write-in candidate in 2010 and could probably do the same again this time around.

The Republicans will retain this seat, as the Democrats are not running a candidate and have endorsed Murkowski, and I don’t think it’s a bizarre ploy. The other Republican candidates are simply far more extreme than the incumbent, and they’d rather see her back in the Senate than one of her competitors. Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY) is supporting her in the face of Trump’s campaign to be rid of her.

She’s the favorite.

Arizona

The incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (D), winner of the special election to replace Senator McCain (R) after his death, faces his first traditional election. He has no primary opponents, so he’s been free to campaign against whoever the GOP has in the primaries.

But he suffers from lack of accomplishments, a common affliction in this age of team politics. If he’s done anything in the Senate, it’s escaped my admittedly scanty notice.

But does that leave the door open in purple Arizona? The primary to select his opponent from the GOP has not yet occurred, and to my eye there is no projected winner. State Attorney General Mark Brnovich, a civil engineer with no electoral history by the name of Jim Lamon, and similarly inexperienced, but endorsed by former President Trump’s and financed by billionaire Peter Thiel, Blake Masters are on offer.

Senator Kelly, outside of his political career, had careers as an astronaut and a Navy captain, which may serve him well in this race; his two of his three potential opponents do not seem to have much more to point at than adherence to the former President, and Brnovich is scorned by the same former President.

If Kelly can persuade Arizona independents that he’s not a leftist radical, he should be able to win. Communications is critical for victory.

Arkansas

Senator John Boozman (R) is up for his second reelection, or third term, as Senator from a State that, as of now, has a Federal delegation made up of two Republican Senators and four Republican Representatives. He’s endorsed by former President Trump.

No drama? Wrong.

Primary rival Jake Bequette may be pushing Boozman, and while I’ve found nothing really on his positions, he’s reported to take far-right positions. However, Boozman’s On The Issues summary shows him to the right of Bequette as a far-right extremist himself, and in any case, Boozman prevailed in the May 24th primary.

What does this mean? Given that some GOP voters refuse to vote for primary rivals when their favorite loses, this might give a strong Democrat a chance to take the seat. However, as this article implicitly notes, the Democratic opposition is weak. A possible opportunity for the Democrats, thrown away.

California

Senator Alex Padilla (D), who was appointed to take the place of Senator Harris (D) when the latter won the VP slot of the United States in 2021, is now gunning for outright election. The Republican nominee is Mark Meuser, who advanced via the non-partisan primary, and …

… has criticized California’s response to the coronavirus pandemic and even went so far as to file more than 20 lawsuits against Gov. Gavin Newsom for his emergency restrictions.” [Fox40]

I’ve been unable to find an On The Issues entry for Meuser.

Unless a black swan flies overhead, it’s Padilla all the way, despite his lack of obvious accomplishments during his time in the Senate.

Colorado

Senator Michael Bennet (D) is running for reelection for a second time. In 2016 he gained 50% of the vote, defeating Republican Darryl Glenn by 6+ points. Can he do it again? There’s no obvious reasons why not. He faces no primary opponents, Biden won the state by 13 points, and none of the names in the Republican primary ring a bell, much less strike fear in the hearts of liberals, at least not that I have heard.

That said, American politics is full of upsets and surprises. Both Bennet and Biden need to get on their campaign horses and get the message out.

Connecticut

Senator Richard Bloomenthal Blumenthal (D) will be defending his seat, but not against primary opponents. And how do his Republican opponents look?

The first snapshot of Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race shows Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a two-term Democrat, with leads ranging from 10 points to 16 points in matchups with Republicans Themis Klarides, Peter Lumaj and Leora Levy. [MSN]

Unless something unforeseen occurs, Bloomenthal Blumenthal should be reelected.

Florida

The race in Florida, featuring incumbent Senator Marco Rubio (R) vs, in all likelihood, Rep Val Demings (D), should be one of the hotter races in the Senate this year. The Democratic propaganda line has repeatedly claimed that Demings is ahead or, at least, within striking distance of the two-term, three-term wannabe, incumbent.

And, quite honestly, to my independent ear, Rubio has seemed woefully out of touch, even somewhat incoherent, recently. When the Miami Heat of the NBA included an announcement during the game following the school massacre in Uvalde, TX, urging fans to call on their local and Federal representatives to pass “common-sense gun laws,” Rubio’s response was deeply flawed, for those who cared to soberly think:

The @NBA doesn’t like to talk about the billions they make from a China that enslaves Uyghur Muslims and harvests their organs

But they have no problem politicizing a horrific tragedy in America pic.twitter.com/VUXpOBbw7j

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) May 26, 2022

Designed to enrage, rather than provoke discussion, Rubio’s attempt to hide behind the stage magician’s magic hand is not impressive to my mind.

But I don’t live in Florida. Concerning Demings, I’ve heard little. Some polls are out, such as this one. It may depend on how well Democrats can turn out the vote.

Georgia

Georgia’s Senatorial race is decidedly one of the most interesting races to analyze. The Democratic incumbent and winner of a special election in 2020, Senator and Rev Raphael Warnock, pastor of the very church at which MLK, Jr. preached, will face recent overwhelming winner of the GOP primary, former NFL star (and Minnesota Viking) Herschel Walker.

First, it’s worth noting that former President Trump is not urging the MAGA crowd not to vote, so that drag on the Republican candidate is not present, unlike when Warnock won the special election to initially fill the seat in 2020.

Warnock has been accused of various ill-doings, none of which seem to stick, so they might be just the usual political mud flinging. He doesn’t appear to have any particular Senatorial accomplishments to which to point, since political polarization brought on by GOP toxic team politics, as well as Senator McConnell’s (R-KY) steadfast insistence of never permitting a debate on most legislation, unless it’s trivial or aid to Ukraine, makes such accomplishments quite the trick to achieve. Still, a man of the cloth should hold some sway over Georgia independents.

Walker has his share of negative reports as a burden as well: accusations of domestic terrorism by an ex-wife, for which Walker claims he’s “accountable;” in his business dealings, he apparently tends to claim more than he actually does, and has been associated with ethically questionable businesses – or even businesses that don’t exist. He’s also acknowledged mental illness, a brave thing to do.

But that’s the past, and many conservative voters will give him a pass for past mistakes. The United States loves a good, redemptive story. So do I. But how about today?

Today, it’s not clear that he’s even functional. His response to the Uvalde, TX school massacre wasn’t evasive, it didn’t cling to the magic of owning a gun, it wasn’t like any other Republican response.

It was utter gibberish, and so was his followup.

And, yet, polls show Warnock and Walker neck and neck, so far as I can make out.

Raw Story has a report from prior to the primary that claimed Georgia GOP officials were terrified that Walker would win the primary, thus dooming their hopes to retake Warnock’s seat. How do they feel now, with Walker unable to meet the challenge of even saying “Prayers and thoughts?” Or will the magic of football dominate in Georgia, as it did in the Alabama election of former coach Tommy Tuberville (R) in 2020?

The general election in Georgia will say a lot as to the seriousness of the electorate.

Hawaii

Democratic Senator Brian Schatz will be running for reelection, having been appointed to his seat in 2012, and winning outright election in 2016 … by 51 points.

There seems little to worry Schatz in his reelection bid.

Idaho

Much like the Hawaii race, incumbent Idaho Senator Mike Crapo (R), recent winner of his primary, seems to have an assured reelection, having won his previous election in 2016 by 39 points.

Illinois

Senator Duckworth (D) will be defending her seat for the first time, having won in 2016 by 15 points, upsetting incumbent Mark Kirk (R). I have not found any excitement in press coverage concerning Senator Duckworth, and she lacks primary opponents, while the Republican collection of candidates do not appear to be remarkable. The primary is June 28, which may clarify the race’s points of interest, or it may simply clarify who Duckworth will be thumping.

Indiana

Deep in Republican land, Senator Todd Young (R) is defending his seat against Mayor Thomas McDermott, Jr. (D). Young won this then-open seat in 2016 by just less than ten points, which may be misleading as he beat the son of a former Senator, Evan Bayh, son of Birch Bayh. Does McDermott have the same name recognition, being the mayor of Hammond, IN, for 18 years? I’ve not found any polls saying so, or measuring the race. The Cook Political Report says Young is outpacing McDermott in fund-raising. And, it’s Indiana.

I figure it’s Young all the way until I hear otherwise.

Iowa

Senator Grassley (R), all 88 years of him, is running for reelection. He was challenged in the primary by State Senator Jim Carlin (R), who seemed optimistic that Grassley is vulnerable, but he failed.

But Carlin may be right. As I’ve noted before, Senator Grassley has sadly devolved into either dementia or just simple mendacity. Iowans, like most American voters, like honesty in their candidates, and if Grassley cannot manage honesty then he may be ousted.

The Democrats surprisingly passed over former Rep Abby Finkenauer (D-IA) to select inexperienced retired Admiral Mike Franken, who does have some experience from working in Senator Ted Kennedy’s (D) office. Perhaps Iowans will respond well to someone with a military background. Grassley is an ally of the former President, so if Trump finds himself in legal trouble, it could reflect poorly on Senator Grassley.

But I sense this is one of those unexpected pickup opportunities that will somehow slip out of the Democrats’ hands.

Kansas

Incumbent Jerry Moran (R) is being primaried by something of an oddity: Joan Farr, who is also running for Senator from the state of Oklahoma.

Yeah, no kidding.

She’s also written a book, How to Run for Office as an Independent Candidate – on very little $$!, so I have to wonder if this is a stunt.

The Kansas primary is on August 2, but I doubt that Kansas is likely to send a Democrat to the Senate unless Moran becomes as electorally repulsive as Kris Kobach (R-KA), who is notorious for losing the 2018 Kansas governor’s race to Democrat and then-State Senator Laura Kelly, thus once again proving Kansans do have a limited appetite for extremist Republicans, having previously rejected, in 2017, then-Governor Brownback’s (R-KA) radical tax reduction plan by replacing his legislative allies with moderate Republicans and Democrats, and then revoking his plan, much to his horror.

Senator Moran’s (R-KS) On The Issues summary.

But by the handiest measure of extremism, Moran’s TrumpScore, he is not particularly extremist. Absent a disastrous scandal, and in view of the fact that Moran won election in 2016 by 30 points, look for Moran to win reelection. His On The Issues summary, though, shows more of an extremist outlook, and is more complete than an arbitrary list of votes.

Still, look for the Democratic challenger to have an uphill climb.

Kentucky

Incumbent Rand Paul (R) won in 2016 by nearly 14 points, and in Republican Kentucky that might be the end of the story.

But if I were a Rand Paul partisan, I might have some concerns.

First, the Democratic nominee is former State Senator Charles Booker, who ran a close second in the Democratic primary in 2020 to challenge Senator McConnell, and is considered a well-known and popular Democrat in Kentucky.

Second, Senator Paul has arguably been acting erratically and against the interests of the United States and Kentucky for years, with his latest cause being the delay of assistance to Ukraine in Putin’s War; indeed, it almost appears that Paul is a Putin partisan. And Americans have little patience with traitors.

Now, it is true that Paul is emblematic of the amateur that is semi-revered in Republican politics. A graduate of Duke Medical School, beginning in 1999 he was certified as an ophthalmologist by an organization of his own creation, the NBO, which was also run by Paul, his wife, and his father-in-law. This sounds very much DIY and brave and all that rot, but is obviously open to fraud. In fact, an unfavorable reading of the cited article suggests a certain petulance on his part.

In any case, a vigorous and insightful campaign by Booker has the potential to yield a surprise for the Democrats. Paul is hardly an impregnable political force. He’s really more of a goof. The question is whether or not Kentuckians realize that.

My money says they don’t.

Louisiana

Deep in Republican land, Senator John Kennedy (R) is popular and appears to not be facing any opponents of stature from either Party. Expect another six years of the smarmy guy from Louisiana.

Maryland

Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen’s future is unclear, at least to me. If he were challenged by Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R), at least some polls have suggested he would lose. However, the Republican effort to recruit Hogan to run have failed, leaving behind a bunch of names with which I’ve no familiarity.

Van Hollen, having won in 2016 in an open seat contest by 25 points, has to be the presumptive favorite.

Missouri

Missouri’s Senator Roy Blunt (R) is retiring after this Congress, which puts his seat up for grabs. In normal times, Blunt would be succeeded by another Republican, perhaps one of his staff members.

This isn’t normal times.

As Kansas (governor) and Alabama (senator) have demonstrated in recent years, if the GOP nominates a sufficiently repulsive personality, such as extremist Kris Kobach, or alleged sexual predator Judge Roy Moore, moderate conservative voters will walk away and give the seat to the Democrats. Candidate and former Governor Eric Greitens (R), who was forced to resign for his alleged sins, may fit the profile, as he was accused of sexual assault of a woman, not his wife, who was tied up in his basement at the time. He claimed it was a consensual encounter, but resigned anyways.

And now he’s a leading contender for the GOP nomination.

Past behavior is no guarantee of future behaviors, of course. Missouri voters may be convinced the accusations, which also included campaign finance irregularities, were all a political scam, and vote him into the Senate.

I must say, not being a fan of the other Missouri Senator, Josh Hawley (R), that’d make quite a pair chewing up Senator salary funds.

But if the Democrats can field a strong contender, this may turn into quite a race. The problem is that phrase: strong contender.

The primary is August 2, and it could be quite interesting.

Nevada

Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is the incumbent and is considered to be in some danger of losing her seat to whoever wins the Republican primary, which recent polls suggest will be Adam Laxalt, a former Nevada Attorney General; the primary is this Tuesday. However, her position with the Latino community appears strong, and general polls suggest a great deal of indecision.

Conventional wisdom has Masto losing, but I suspect, absent the black swan of doom, Masto will win this with surprising ease.

New Hampshire

The incumbent is Democrat and Senator Maggie Hassan. In her 2016 race, she upset incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R) by .14%, a painfully close race. Nor is New Hampshire a traditional Democratic stronghold.

And, finally, opinion is mixed. Crowd Wisdom, which is unfamiliar to me, believes Hassan is well-positioned to win reelection; conservative National Review, in an older article, thinks she’s in trouble. With the primary in September, Hassan’s opponent is undetermined.

We’ll just have to wait to see if the Republicans pick a strong or weak candidate.

But it must be noted in that popular Governor Sununu (R-NH), when asked to run for the Senate, declined the opportunity. Rumor suggests he sees little opportunity in the Senate for accomplishment, which is real pushback on the strategy of Senator McConnell.

This is a gift to the Democrats. Can they capitalize?

New York

Incumbent Senator and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D) has been facing the Mountain of GOP intransigence, the Lake of Manchin and Sinema Obtuseness, and the Abyss of Biden clumsiness, but he’s running again anyways. Weaker men would call it a career.

On the other hand, and hand in hand with Speaker of the House Pelosi (D-CA), they defeated former President Trump’s desperate attempts to force the government into bankruptcy. Schumer has a lot of good to point at.

So his path to remain in his seat includes reminding independents of his defeat of the former President, the insuperable obstacles he’s faced as Majority Leader, and what happens if he’s replaced by a Republican. Fortunately, none of his primary or general election opponents seem to have much for name recognition, and New York is generally Democratic for state-wide campaigns. Look for Schumer to retain his seat.

North Carolina

In purplish North Carolina incumbent Richard Burr (R) is vacating his seat after accusations that he may have violated ethics rules concerning stock trades made with privileged information. As the primary has come and gone, we know that the two major party candidates are former State Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley (D), who easily won her primary, and Rep Ted Budd (R), who won the GOP nomination in a come from behind overwhelming victory, following endorsement by former President Trump.

Which way to bet? Democrat Beasley definitely has a hill to climb, and the few polls out so far have varying results, from a 2 point mound to an 8 point ugly hill. But there’s still a few months for the campaigns to work their respective magics.

The other two hinges of this race may also be that of current President Biden and former President Trump. If Biden sharpens his message and his performance, independent North Carolina voters may decide to vote for Beasley as a proxy for Biden. If Biden’s Administration continues to struggle with domestic issues and fails to communicate its more-than-solid performance regarding Putin’s War, then North Carolina independents may hold their noses and vote for the Trump-endorsed Budd. Even disaffected voters for the losers of the primary – primarily former Gov Pat McCrory (R) – may vote for Budd.

But if Trump comes out of the January 6th Insurrection hearings that are currently being televised smelling like an arrogant autocrat, independent North Carolina voters may take their fury out on the Republicans by voting for Beasley.

Time will tell.

North Dakota

It’s North Dakota. Have North Dakotans become disaffected with the Republican Party when I wasn’t looking?

No.

It’s incumbent John Hoeven (R) in a walk. Assuming he survives the upcoming primary.

Ohio

Incumbent Rob Portman (R) is retiring from the Senate, and the major parties are putting forth Rep Tim Ryan (D) and J. D. Vance (R), retired Marine, lawyer and author of Hillbilly Elegy.

J. D. Vance’s On The Issues summary.

Vance has not held elective office, but he has worked for Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) and state Senator Bob Schuler (R-OH), so he at least knows what’s going on. He won the party primary with merely 31.3% of the GOP vote, so there may be some question as to whether the Josh Mandell partisans, his closest rival with 24.3% of the vote, will be willing to vote for Vance, or if the battle was bitter enough to outrage them. Balancing this is an endorsement, in April, of Vance by former President Trump. However, an endorsee who only won a plurality of the vote does raise some questions about the candidate’s overall popularity with the GOP. Complicating the question is the fact that Vance transitioned from a Never Trumper to a Trump sycophant, suggesting his lust for power influences his judgment, and that he’s a right-wing extremist. The On The Issues summary of his positions, to your right, reinforces that impression.

Rep Ryan (D) is completing his twentieth year as a member of the House of Representatives, albeit for two different Ohio districts. His length of service suggests he knows how to get elected in a reddish state, although gerrymandering may also be at work here. However, he’s more than a bit to the left of moderate, as can be seen to the left.

The only poll I’ve found so far suggests Vance is up by 2 points, which is within the margin of error. In an opinion piece by Jennifer Rubin of WaPo, she quotes Matt Bennett:

Matt Bennett, of the moderate think tank Third Way, explains: “Voters in places like Ohio will have a clear choice in the Senate race: a principled moderate who has eschewed the radicals in his own party and is entirely focused on making life better for the people of the state or a completely phony proto-populist who decided that the only way to win high office as a Republican is to bend the knee to Donald Trump, lie constantly, and focus on culture war tropes and racist nonsense.”

Not exactly a nuanced, neutral view – or Vance is one mighty scumbag.

Look for this to be one of the big battlegrounds of the 2022 Senate cycle.

Oklahoma

The incumbent is James Lankford (R), who won his 2016 race by 43.1 points. He’s being primaried, but the opponents do not appear to be a serious threat, and neither do the Democrats.

It’s Oklahoma. It’ll be Senator Lankford, again, in 12 months, barring a black swan scandal.

But it’s a two-fer! Long-time Senator James Inhofe (R) will retire prior to the end of his current term, on the day that new Senators are sworn in; the special election will be held on November 8, 2022, Election Day.

The parties are putting forth former Rep Kendra Horn (D), who lost to Stephanie Bice (R) in her reelection bid in 2020, and is the default winner in the primary, while there’s a host of GOP candidates awaiting the late June primary balloting, chief among them former EPA Administrator and entrant in the Most Scandals Ever contest Scott Pruitt, and Rep Markwayne Mullin, perhaps best known for his desperate attempts to gain former President Trump’s endorsement. With a TrumpScore of 93%, he may not be sycophantic enough to overcome Pruitt’s service to the former President.

But it’s more than likely that either one of them will beat Horn in highly conservative Oklahoma. Unless the former President does, in fact, fall from grace in the near future.

Oregon

Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) has had 26 years in the US Senate, and he’s gunning for another six years. In 2016 he won reelection by an overwhelming 23 points. Do have the Republicans have a selection which will appeal to the power-holding independents?

I don’t think so. The winner of the GOP primary is Jo Rae Perkins, who won with only 33% of the primary voters, indicating dissension in the ranks. Her electoral experience consists of running for and failing to win elective office. Most importantly, her On The Issues chart, to the reader’s right, indicates a far-right partisan unlikely to appeal to independents.

Absent the black swan, this is incumbent Wyden’s in a walk.

Pennsylvania

Toomey may not have had the mouth of Senator Cruz, but he’s arguably farther right than the most disliked member of the Senate.

The race for the open seat of retiring far-right Senator Pat Toomey (R) is possibly the most intriguing and damaged competition of the 2022 races for Federal seats, including the House seats. Indeed, it’s damn near a soap opera.

The Republicans opened with a field led by the Trump-endorsed and prominent PA Republican Sean Parnell, who was defeated in 2020 for an open House seat in a Republican-leaning district by moderate Democrat Conor Lamb. Probably due to the endorsement, Parnell’s future looked promising, but on or around Nov 23, 2021, he withdrew from the race entirely after losing custody of his children to his estranged wife after being accused of hurting both wife and children, which he denied.

Mehment Oz’s On The Issues summary.

With a prime member of the PA GOP’s Steel Curtain suddenly out of the running, Dr. Mehmet Oz, also known as TV’s Dr. Oz, a surgeon who dispenses medical advice on television, joined the race a few days later. Does he have a residence in Pennsylvania? He does in a few other States, but not Pennsylvania. He holds dual citizenship with the USA and Turkey, has been accused multiple times, credibly, of dispensing inferior medical advice, as well as flip-flopping on positions. Nor is he a moderate that would appeal to moderates, as his On The Issues summary, to the left, indicates. I do have to wonder how accurate it is, though, as he has no prior elective experience, only statements.

But he’s not the only opportunist, as David McCormick also joined the fray in January of 2022. A Wall Street inhabitant, he also has a military background and served in positions in government.

But wait, there’s more! As the primary date neared, comparative unknown Kathy Barnette, breathing far-right fire, surged in the polls and seemed to be positioning herself to slide by the two leaders, Oz and McCormick, by using her ideological appeal and even a diss of the former President. That latter tactic may have been a mistake.

In the Republican primary showdown, the counts, recounts, and litigation took quite a while to resolve, but Dr. Oz slipped past McCormick by a mere 951 votes in the end. Barnette faded badly, but at least she didn’t start screaming about vote rigging, unlike this defeated candidate in Arizona.

Among the Democrats, the contest counted four entrants in the end, but the real contest was expected to be between the aforementioned Rep Conor Lamb, coming off of one giant-killing in 2020, and Lt. Governor John Fetterman, who, at 6′ 9″ tall, is a credible giant, bald, and covered in tatoos.

But I think anyone who has seen Fetterman on stage or read his responses to Republicans over the years is well aware that he’s a charismatic individual who comes across as authentic, much like Jesse Ventura did during his successful run for the Minnesota Governor’s seat as an independent in 1998.

But there was more drama to come, as Fetterman ended up in the hospital just a few days before May 17, Primary Day in Pennsylvania. Initially reported as a mild stroke, brought on by ignoring medical advice, it turned out to be much more serious. Would that affect the primary?

Oh, it probably did, but Rep Lamb’s giant-killing ways still came to a stop with a surprising 32 point loss to the Lt. Governor.

But will Fetterman’s campaign’s decision to underplay his medical condition affect some voters? Some – maybe many – appreciate knowing medical details of their political representatives – even if FDR had polio and didn’t advertise it. That was an era when medical problems were far more common, and political candidates were expected to persevere and hope the divine would carry them through. That’s not today.

John Fetterman’s On The Issues summary.

Fetterman, unlike Oz, has relatively little to worry about in the scandal department, or at least so far as we know, unless Oz can somehow find a way to attack Fetterman’s support for fracking, a position which will make Democrats deeply uneasy, but will appeal to a certain class of Pennsylvanians. Oz would be wise to forget that target, because Oz will be the target of many unhappy revelations, at least for those who haven’t followed his career. Pennsylvania famously went for Biden by 1.17% in the 2020 Presidential election, and, even more importantly, far-right retiring Senator Toomey won in 2016 by only 1.5 points – against a relative unknown. If the Democrats had a better-known candidate in 2016, Toomey might have spent the last 5.5 years watching from the sidelines. Fetterman may be that candidate.

Fetterman’s health and opacity makes this pick a bit of a wildcard, but I still like Fetterman’s chances. Look for the Democrats to pick up this seat, especially if McCormick’s partisans were embittered losing to Mehmet Oz.

South Carolina

Incumbent Senator Tim Scott (R) is running again. Having won in 2016 by 23 points, and not stepped in any potholes since then, I expect to see Senator Scott in the Senate again a year from now.

South Dakota

Incumbent Senator John Thune (R) is running again. In 2022, he won by 43 points, and there’s little reason to believe the South Dakotan and high ranking Republican leader in the Senate, and who won 73+% of the votes in the GOP primary, won’t be victorious again come this November.

No matter how much the former President hates him.

Utah

In what would otherwise be considered another limp Republican state, incumbent Senator Mike Lee (R) is facing an actual credible challenge, not from the Democrats, but from independent Evan McMullin.

McMullin has not held elective office, but has worked as chief policy director for the House Republican Conference, a credit of, perhaps, dubious worth, given the tremendous mess the GOP has for most policy issues; prior to that, he was a CIA officer. He ran for President in 2016, and in Utah he hoovered up 21.5% of the vote, which I personally think is a marvelous result.

The incumbent, Mike Lee, still faces a primary, which does not appear to be much of a challenge, and then McMullin, who has been extraordinarily endorsed by the Democrats, and Lee will have their go. McMullin is definitely a conservative, but the sort that is a Never Trumper, while Senator Lee is an ally of the former President. Lee has certainly stuck his foot in his mouth a couple of times, exhibiting views that seem sophisticated and insightful, but they were neither, simply convenient to his defense of the former President and the policy positions of the Republicans. By being allegedly deceptive about his role in the January 6th riot, he’s angered his hometown media, namely The Salt Lake Tribune.

It’s Lee, but it’ll be close, close enough that bad news for Trump could see McMullin into the Senate.

Vermont

Democratic incumbent Senator Leahy is retiring at the end of this term, so it’s a free-for-all for this seat. The primary is August 9th. At present, the scant polls suggest Democratic Rep Peter Welch is in a commanding position, but there are still months to go.

But President Biden won Vermont by 35 points. I expect we’ll see a Democrat win this seat.

Washington

Tiffany Smiley’s On The Issues summary.

Long time incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray is running again. In 2016, she won by a commanding 18 points, but here in 2022 some sources are trying to talk up a challenge by Tiffany Smiley (R). Smiley’s a moderate, which suggests she may appeal to Washington independent voters, but Murray is a known and presumably comfortable quantity. The sources are, I think, wishful rather than realistic. This poll gives Murray a commanding lead.

Look for Murray to retain her seat.

But I think the real point of interest is that Washington uses a “top-two” primary system. All qualifying candidates, regardless of party affiliation, are listed on the primary ballot, and the top two vote-getters then move on to the general election. This has the potential to remove extremists, conservative and liberal, who are not palatable to the general voter, leaving at least one of the top two to be of a moderate mien; if there is no incumbent, then both may be moderates.

But it depends on a sufficient turnout. If Smiley is, in fact, promoted to the general election, that suggests that the far-right extremists, despite the racket they make, are only a small portion of the general conservative faction of the American electorate.

Wisconsin

Republican incumbent Ron Johnson (R) is running for reelection, and in so doing breaking a vow to only serve two terms. I don’t think that matters much to his partisans, and probably not to the Wisconsin electorate.

But it’s of a piece with the story of Senator Johnson. Over the last two or three years, he’s been slowly descending, in the eyes of this independent, into the depths of dementia or, at best, exceptionally poor judgement. He’s promoted vacuous, false claims of cures for Covid-19, crank conspiracy theories, election-denying attacks on our election system, ridiculous anti-Democrat memes, unjustified diminutions of the effects of what appears to be the imminent overturning of Roe v Wade, and generally seems to have a screw loose.

I’m not kidding. This isn’t vituperation; he is simply that bad.

Will he even survive the primary? There’s a long list of Republicans on the primary ballot, eager to take him down, and that suggests a widespread recognition that the Senator is a liability and not an asset in the US Senate. However, I have not found any polls for Johnson and his intra-party rivals.

Nor have I for the Democrats among themselves.

However, I have found a couple of polls of Johnson vs selected Democrats, namely Lt. Governor and former State Assemblyman Mandela Barnes, who comes out even, and former State Assemblyman Tom Nelson, who comes out with a 4 point advantage.

Johnson won reelection in 2016 by 3+ points, but this time around he has an extra burden to bear: the Wisconsin GOP. They have proven to be a pack of Trump sycophants and extremists, having wasted millions of dollars on recounts and incompetent, even infantile investigations, and demanded Wisconsin Speaker of the House Robin Vos revert the 2020 Presidential election results, which would be illegal, as Vos himself recognized. He was booed for telling the truth. All of these fourth-rater blunders have been well-advertised by an outraged Wisconsin media.

Between that and Johnson’s outright non-mainstream and irrational behaviors, it’s hard to see the independents voting him back to the Senate again. If the Democrats select a reasonably strong candidate and Johnson beats his rivals in the primary, I expect the Democrats to tip this state.

And that’s it. I’m too tired to count, but my impression is that, as one might expect given the imbalance in seats to defend, the Republicans have two-four more seats that may be taken by Democrats (or, in Utah, independent Evan McMullin) than do the Democrats have at risk. Worse yet, it’s hard to pick which Republican is at worst risk, the empty seat in Pennsylvania, Senator Johnson in Wisconsin, or even Senator Grassley in Iowa.

Months to go, scandals to come. I hope you enjoyed my analyses.

Bloody mice, chewing up everything. And just because our cat thinks she needs to bring in live prey.

/disgruntled

ActiVote? What The Hell?

I’ve been excluding ActiVote results because of a perceived erratic rightward tilt, and because it’s not rated nor known to FiveThirtyEight. But today, I glanced at their first three new results, and, much to my shock, two of them were reasonable. Since I’ve been writing this series not only to keep readers up to date on the Senate campaign, but also as a learning experience, I thought I’d put them up as a lesson in … the power of money.

In our hypotheses, we’ll take a potential high rating on FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Rating Page as a proxy for future earnings potential; the better the rating, the higher the earnings.

We can put together these hypotheses, and expected behaviors.

1. ActiVote is a prolific, honest pollster. They are non-proficient, so results are erratic compared to other pollsters, and often diverge from top pollsters. Codename: Honest.
2. ActiVote is a prolific, honest pollster, and is excellent. Their divergence from top pollsters is simply the result of other pollster’s poorer results. Codename: Excellent.
3. ActiVote is a prostitute pollster, meaning it issues results favoring its sponsors at their request. The goal is to influence voters’ behavior at the polling booth or moral equivalent; accuracy is not a priority. Thus, their results may be much like item 1 results, only more so. While their goal is both dubious and probably impractical, being caught is of low probability, and punishment may be negligible. Codename: Prostitute.
4. ActiVote is a grifter of sponsors, meaning it issues results that pleases sponsors without a request to do so, nor without revealing their activities, and with no regard to accuracy. Their goal is to increase repeat sales through pleasing results, often via confirmation bias. Codename: Grifter.

Naturally, for the Prostitute and Grifter there is a tension between immediate profit and high ratings from 3rd parties such as FiveThirtyEight. Thus, for those who qualify in either category and are good pollsters, their last polls should converge with other known excellent pollsters. We may have seen that in today’s batch of polls, but I don’t know if this was the last for our prolific example.

As a practical matter, hypothesis Honest will be considered the most likely if ActiVote’s results prove to be a pseudo-random scatter. Prostitute and Grifter will be indistinguishable, since there is currently no access to ActiVote’s internal communications, and considered most likely if ActiVote’s results change from previous results, converging with Election results in most cases. Finally, Excellence will be the most likely if ActiVote does well in its final results for each region it polls without a shocking change compared to previous results.

I’ll try to remember to return to this topic once Election results are released.

How Is The Abortion Issue Playing Into The Election?

Thanks for asking, I just wrote a post on that.

Examine And Classify The Nitty-Grit … Grit … Grit …

• In Arizona, unknown ActiVote has thrown in the towel and claimed Rep Gallego (D-AZ) has a substantial lead over election-denier Kari Lake (R-AZ) of 54%-46%, or nine points after rounding and maybe a few other dance routines. Not only is it large, but it has Gallego well over 50%.
  

  ---

  Data for Progress (2.6) gives Rep Gallego a 50%-45% edge, with a margin of error of ±3 points.

  ---

  Finally, YouGov (3.0) has the smallest lead for Rep Gallego at 49%-45%, which seems a bit of a puzzle.

  ---

  The only question in my mind for this contest is why are so many Arizonans voting for Lake?

• Nevada has generated a flood of polls from higher quality pollsters for the contest between Senator Rosen (D-NV) and challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), most of which give the lead to Senator Rosen: Emerson College (2.9) 49%-45%, YouGov (3.0) 51%-44%, Noble Predictive Insights (2.4) a close 48%-46%, and Data for Progress (2.6) with a more substantial 49%-42% lead. Only Susquehanna Polling & Research (2.3) gives Brown the advantage at 47%-46% on a smallish sample size of 400, the smallest of all the Nevada polls this time around, although not by a great deal, and a large margin of error of ±4.9 points.
  

  ---

  I’ve been expecting a high single digit to a low double digit victory margin for the Senator; perhaps I’m a bit optimistic?

• There’s an even larger flood of polls in Pennsylvania, all showing Senator Casey (D-PA) ahead of challenger David McCormick (R-PA?): YouGov (3.0) has a very reasonable 50%-44%, Data for Progress (2.6) gives the Senator a reasonable 49%-45%, Suffolk University (2.9) takes 49%-46% and rounds it to a four point lead, Marist College (2.9) a very small lead of 50%-48%, WaPo (unrated) suggests a 49%-46% lead, and finally the problematic ActiVote (unrated) has the Senator leading 51%-50%, presumably through a surfeit of fingers used for counting. Or rounding, or rounding, yes, yes. Stop yelling. ActiVote’s summary? “McCormick Closing in on Casey in Pennsylvania.” Maybe. I kinda doubt it, though.
• Michigan is only getting a rain shower of polls, all finding Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leading hard-right extremist former Rep Rogers (R-MI) for the open Michigan Senate seat: YouGov (3.0) gives Rep Slotkin a big lead of 51%-42%, Marist College (2.9) has the Rep ahead by a smaller gap of 52%-46%, EPIC-MRA (1.9, which is a bit low but I have nothing else against them) is at 47%-42%, and finally the ever doubtful ActiVote, now functioning as a cautionary example, giving Rep Slotkin a minuscule lead of 51%-49%. I think an eight point victory is not out of reach, but we shall see.
• Wisconsin’s up here, where we finally received snow, and next to Lake Michigan, so they’re getting a lake-effect snow squall of polls, all showing Senator Baldwin (D-WI) leading Republican Eric Hovde (R-WI?): YouGov (3.0) shows a lead of 50%-45%, Marist College (2.9) has a measurement of 51%-48%, and ActiVote, oh ActiVote, measures a respectable lead of 54%-46%, which sounds right even if their sample size is a mere 400 voters, with a margin of error of ±4.9 points.
  

  ---

  It appears Senator Baldwin is pulling away, if the polling is accurate, which many progressives will dispute. And this Daily Kos article is interesting: The pollsters say Wisconsin is a toss-up. But the polls aren’t matching 2024’s reality.

• But do debates matter for Senate races? I’ve never seen that question asked, much less answered. But Steve Benen claims that the debate between Missouri Senator Hawley (R-MO) and his challenger, Lucas Kunce (D-MO), was a disaster for the Senator, as does some dude named Brian Tyler Cohen. The latter link is to a short clip from the debate, and I hear Kunce saying, Josh Hawley is a selfish swamp creature… I kid you not.
  

  ---

  It’s noteworthy that a debate has occurred at all. It may mean that the Senator’s private polls showed that he is in trouble, and perhaps he thought that he needed to win a debate to show he’s the dominant political personality in Missouri. It seems that this idea swirled down the toilet, if Cohen and Benen are to be believed. I haven’t the time to hunt down a recording of the event and watch.

  ---

  But will it matter? Do Missourians watch debates, or is the state too polarized? There is very little public polling, and I’ve just assumed the Senator will win. But Missourians certainly have good reasons to kick the bum Senator out, from being just a showboating mouth to encouraging Jan 6th insurrectionists to supporting Christian Nationalists. I guess we’ll have to wait for results from Missouri on Tuesday.

Oh, Stop That!

Polls from the following pollsters, entirely or in part, have been shoveled into the bin, taken to the Pit, and placed on the Spike, who has been tied down and smothered in mushrooms: Torchlight Strategies (no rating, appears to be a lapdog for Senator Fischer) and OnMessage (1.1, which is awful).

Enjoy that visual. And, yes, I meant Spike from Buffy, The Vampire Slayer. Thanks for asking.

It’s a compulsion, toenails are falling out, hair tying itself in knots, and angels are turning up their noses. Wait, do they have noses? Here’s my theologically authoritative source.

Anyways, this report is palatable, I think.

What About AtlasIntel?

If pollster AtlasIntel didn’t hold a 2.7 rating, I’d stop citing them because the results they are producing are often at variance with top pollsters, which is significant in the light of the variance between the top pollsters in many cases.

No final conclusion concerning this pollster is yet possible, so choose from the following:

1. AtlasIntel has successfully modified their data collection and / or adjustment model for today’s citizenry and is about to cause an uproar in the pollster ranks.
2. AtlasIntel hasn’t changed with the times and is about to crash and burn.
3. AtlastIntel is a Republican-aligned organization that is employing all of its powers to get a demented, ineffective old man and his allies into power because he’s easily manipulated.

Any more ideas? Send them to me, contact information is in the upper right corner. But right at the moment, I suspect it’s number three.

I do wonder just what coin AtlastIntel is gathering in for this work.

And The Data Came Marching In, Oh So Slovenly!

• In Arizona, where I expect Rep Gallego (D-AZ) to beat election-denier Kari Lake (R-AZ) by double digits, AtlasIntel (2.7) wants you to believe Lake leads by one point, 49%-48%. A few updates back, AtlasIntel had Gallego up by one. It’s worth mentioning that this is strongly reminiscent of the 2022 Senator Hassan (D-NH) / Don Bolduc (R-NH) race in which conservative pollsters tried to convince voters, or perhaps their sponsors, bit by bit, that Bolduc was going to win. The Senator ended up thrashing Bolduc by ten. Perhaps those pollsters, or maybe grifters, are at it again. The only fly in the ointment for this conspiracy theory is AtlasIntel’s 2.7 rating.
  

  ---

  Noble Predictive Insights (2.4) has Gallego leading by a slim 48%-44% margin, or four points, with a ±3.5 margin of error. The pollster observes:

  Despite Trump’s lead in the Presidential race, Gallego has a strong advantage attributed to slightly less Republican loyalty for Lake (82%) than Trump (87%), as well as a stronger margin among Independents for Gallego (+14) than Harris (+8).

  If that continues, Lake is sunk, and with a bigger margin than a mere four points.

• It’s just like it’s snowing, the way the polls come down in Michigan. And it actually snowed here in Minnesota today. Anyways. AtlasIntel (2.7) has a plausible result to report in Michigan of Rep Slotkin (D-MI) leading former Rep Rogers (R-MI) by the small margin of 50%-46%.
  

  ---

  Echelon Insights (2.7), new to me but with respectable rating, has it even closer at 48%-46%, but no margin of error evident.

  ---

  Mitchell Research & Communications (2.4) actually has a lead for Republican Mike Rogers, 49%-47%. That is a result well-nigh unique in this race, which rings my bell to consider this in more depth. 2.4 as a rating is fairly good, but I could see this as a skew to the right. The sponsor of the poll is Michigan News Source, not a news source that has caught my attention. But looking it over, I see the masthead includes the slogan

  real, honest, news.

  It’s been my observation over the last few years that sites of a dubious nature will use appeals to patriotism and honesty to lure vulnerable readers into trusting them. For me, they’re red flags. The balance of the content of the report reads more like a campaign press release than a real news report. For these reasons, I’m not taking this poll too seriously.

  ---

  The Washington Post conducted a poll but didn’t name a partner, nor could I find one, which means no rating for them, as FiveThirtyEight only rates Washington Post polls in the context of a partner. The relevance of this poll is therefore difficult to estimate. In terms of data, they give Rep Slotkin a 48%-45% lead, which is within the poll’s margin of error of ±3.7 points. This seems plausible enough.

  ---

  Finally, the Michigan poll I take most seriously is University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov, two pollsters which individually have ratings of 2.9 and 3.0, respectively. They give Slotkin a big lead, 48%-39%.

• University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research (1.8) gives Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) a lead over Rep Allred (D-TX) of 47%-45%. A two point lead is not overwhelming, even at this point in the race.
• The doubtful AtlasIntel (2.7) gives Nevada Senator Rosen (D-NV) a two point lead over challenger Sam Brown (R-NV), 47%-45%, in a race most other respected pollsters give to the Senator by roughly ten points.
• Pennsylvania has seen the most polling of any State in the Union, so here’s what happened today. AtlasIntel (2.7) gives Senator Casey (D-PA) a 49%-46% lead over challenger David McCormick (R-PA?), closer to four points, actually, which is a bit low, but nothing like its polling of Arizona and Nevada. Echelon Insights (2.7) actually gives McCormick a lead, 47%-44%, which would be stunning if I weren’t suspicious of the pollster as being askew already.
  

  ---

  This all comes in the context of a measurement from University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov, two pollsters which individually have ratings of 2.9 and 3.0, respectively. They give the Senator a larger 48%-42% lead, suggesting Casey will be winning this race.

• In Wisconsin, AtlasIntel (2.7) believes Senator Baldwin (D-WI) and challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI?) are tied at 49% apiece. Echelon Insights (2.7) gives the Senator a 49%-48% lead. Neither of these pollsters have had convincing numbers, and they’ve come out of hiding in what seems like the last week, so despite their high ratings, I’m dubious concerning these measurements.
• In Ohio, unknown pollster University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics gives Senator Brown (D-OH) a lead over challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) of 46%-44%. It’s an interesting result, noting that other poorer quality pollsters have found Moreno to be ahead. The margin of error is ±2.8 points, so it’s what they call a statistical dead heat, but I suspect Brown really does have the advantage. However, this poll hardly constitutes a snapshot in time, as the data gathering period is a monstrous Sept. 12-Oct. 24, what appears to be five weeks or so. That may invalidate this poll.

The Expungement List

Among pollsters removed from campus are ActiVote, Cygnal (2.1), TIPP Insights (1.8), and Change Research (1.4).

Tired?

Oh yeah.

Halloween is coming. Have you bought your mouse ears?

Oh, AtlasIntel again!

Yes, I talked about AtlasIntel (2.7) here, and it’s that 2.7 (out of three in the FiveThirtyEight rating system) that deters me from discarding their polls, so they appear below. But the divergence I discussed before continues, so keep that in mind for AtlasIntel poll results: They appear to be a conservative-aligned pollster.

They Said, ‘Eat Dirt, Run Like Crazy!’ I So Worry About Them

• I’ve adored the pollster University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion (2.9) since the 2022 New Hampshire Senate race, when they picked Senator Hassan (D-NY) by ten late in the race, when all the other pollsters, mostly conservative leaning pollsters, were giving her challenger, Don Bolduc (R-NH), a small lead. She won by ten. Now they’ve teamed up with another big-time name, YouGov (2.9 also), and produced a measurement for Pennsylvania Senator Casey (D-PA) and David McCormick (R-PA?), showing the Senator with a substantial lead, 48%-39%. There may be almost two and a bit weeks to go, but I suspect the Senator is cruising to a victory at this point, despite what most other pollsters and news media are claiming.
  

  ---

  But not so fast, if you believe AtlasIntel (2.7), which has McCormick ahead, 48%-47%.

• In Michigan, Mitchell Research & Communications (2.4) is giving Rep Slotkin (D-MI) a 45%-40% lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI). Recall from the last update that Quinnipiac University (2.8) had this race even at 48%, so the pollsters are not really agreeing on the situation in Michigan. Senator and Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY) wants to be part of the action, and to that end his super PAC Senate Leadership Fund is reportedly spending another $10.5 million in Michigan. And then there’s AtlasIntel (2.7), which has this race is in a statistical dead heat at 48%, with a small advantage to former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI). This is in direct contradiction to nearly all respectable polls, although Quinnipiac University (2.8) is the exception to that observation.
• The Nebraska regularly scheduled election has turned into a battle of candidate-sponsored polls, but Senator Fischer (R-NE) seems to be laboring under a handicap against challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE): her pollsters are consistently low-rated or not known at all to FiveThirtyEight, while Osborn’s polls are roughly half poorly rated pollsters and half highly rated. The latest example from the Senator is another weak riposte to Osborn’s use of SurveyUSA (2.8), and it comes from the unknown Torchlight Strategies, which the Senator has used repeatedly. It shows their sponsor, the Senator, leads the race, 51%-44%. Of course.
  

  ---

  The indicators are a little contradictory. As I noted, Torchlight Strategies is unrated and unknown, so it may be willing to bend results to gain a sponsor’s favor; however, it is an “internal poll”, according to The Hill, and such are only of benefit if they’re honest; dishonest internal poll results, unless they’re doing double-entry polling, could result in angry lawsuits from the sponsor. But is this a leak from the Fischer campaign, meaning they just made shit up? For that matter, the condescension palpable in The Hill piece, a news source that I rather suspect leans Republican, smacks of conservative boilerplate, assembled from a playbook of stock phrases with hot glue, rather than a thoughtful report.

  ---

  SurveyUSA’s results are also sponsored, but being rated highly at 2.8/3 should mean that they place honest results over pleasing the sponsor. If their rating moves down, it could mean lower prestige, lower demand for services, meaning less revenue, etc. Therefore, Fischer’s poll results are the most suspect, and have been all along, leaving me with the taste of their desperation in my mouth. This may be the upset of the season.

• YouGov (2.9) gives Texas Senator Cruz (R-TX) a commanding lead of 51%-44% over Rep Allred (D-TX). That’s in contrast with reports of Cruz’s panic in the previous update.
• In Montana Republican candidate Tim Sheehy (R-MT) has decided to resort to fear-based campaigning, as the Washington Examiner reports:
  

  Republican Tim Sheehy is warning voters in the final days before the election that his closely watched Montana Senate race has higher stakes than control of the upper chamber.

  The former Navy SEAL argued that reelecting Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) to a fourth term means not only that Donald Trump‘s agenda could possibly be thwarted but that the former president would also be impeached for a third time if he returns to the White House.

  “Make no mistake: If he does not have a Congress that’s supporting his actions, we saw last time what happened. He was impeached twice,” Sheehy told a small group of supporters gathered for a rally on Monday. “Oh, by the way, your senior senator, Jon Tester, voted to impeach him not once but twice. If Trump doesn’t have the Senate when he gets there, he will be impeached right away.”

  Small problem, though. Senators don’t impeach, as Steve Benen observes:

  What Sheehy apparently doesn’t know — but really should — is that the Senate doesn’t have impeachment authority and it can’t impeach presidents, even if a majority of members wanted to.

  The House impeaches, the entire Senate votes in the trial authorized by the impeachment, and requires a two thirds supermajority to convict and thus remove the President.

  ---

  Resorting to this class of tactics suggests to me that Mr Sheehy is running out of ways to spin his shortcomings. His business is dying, he doesn’t have Senator Tester’s experience and Montana-specific background as Mr Sheehy is from Minnesota, and he’s boxed in by the Republican Party tenets. Maybe his internal polls are not as sunny as the public polls. He might even be in a statistical dead heat.

  ---

  Or worse.

• AtlasIntel (2.7) would like me to believe Arizona Rep Gallego (D-AZ) leads Republican Kari Lake (R-AZ) 50%-46%; I expect, perhaps wrongly, that Gallego’s margin will be in the double digits. Instead, this lead is nearly within the margin of error, which is ±3 points.
• AtlasIntel (2.7) has Wisconsin Senator Baldwin (D-WI) leading challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI) 49%-46%. It’s tempting to consider just how large the Senator’s lead is in reality if AtlasIntel’s results skew conservative, as I suspect.
• AtlasIntel (2.7) claims Nevada’s Senator Rosen (D-NV) leads Republican challenger Sam Brown (R-NV) 47%-43%; I expect, perhaps wrongly, that Rosen’s margin will be in the double digits. Instead, this lead is nearly within the margin of error, which is ±3 points.
• In Ohio, Senator Brown (D-OH) is seeing the same phenomenon as Vice President Harris (D) is seeing: backing from Republicans, in this case former Ohio Governor Bob Taft (R-OH). Challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH) must be quite the extremist.

Pollster Ignored! (The one-night Broadway sensation!)

In the list of pollsters ignored in this update is The Bullfinch Group, Expedition Strategies (1.2), Morning Consult (1.9), and unknown, if prolific, ActiVote. Those pollsters who are unknown lack “(x.x)”.

I also discarded RMG Research (2.4) polls, despite their respectable rating, due to their admission they are working with Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports. The latter is listed on FiveThirtyEight in the section of pollsters who are so awful they are not rated. Rasmussen Reports is known to be Republican-aligned, but trying to adjust RMG Research poll results seemed to me a tiresome project, doomed to failure.

Naturally, those races seen as non-competitive were also not reported. Surprise results will change my judgment on such races, see Arizona, above.

The Colossus
Francisco de Goya

As the giants strolled by, Francisco de Goya frantically painted them, but he painted so quickly the friction of his brushes caused almost all the paintings to catch fire and burn up.

This is why oil painting is dangerous.

The Polling Frightens Me, Help!

Yes, depending on who you are and, inversely, how little you know about poll accuracy and trustability, polls can be frightening. A writer using the dubious handle (I’ve been in social media since the early ’80s, so’s I gets to say “dubious handle”) gingytheelephantboy has an article out on Daily Kos that, again, is either reassuring or even more terrifying. Important points:

A special election was held to fill George Santos’ seat. The polls showed a toss-up. The Democrat won by 8 points. The last special election of the season was held in New Jersey last month. The seat was safely Blue and turnout was very small. The Democrat took 80 percent as compared to 75 the last time around. Yesterday in Fairbanks, a +14 Trump city, the Democrat won the mayoral election by 15 percent [sic]. Are we seeing a pattern here?

So why do I continue this series? I’m trying, as a non-specialist, to convey how to evaluate a campaign in terms of anticipating winners and losers during a campaign. I dare to say that my qualifications are the qualifications of most of the electorate, except I’m now (sigh) 60+ years old, and having 40 years in social media suggests I’ve had more experience watching and participating in arguments about politics and how the world works than most. I’ve seen a lot of weirdness, from the current absurdly blasphemous surrealism of Christian Nationalism to the assertion that America was about to experience a revolution because, at the time, the homeless in Denver were upset.

But to get back to the point, I try to share my thinking and evaluation methods so readers can get a leg up on not being 60+ years. I report polls, but I do not necessarily buy into them. Pollsters will tell you data collection has become more and more difficult. Progressives claim the youth vote, leaning Democratic, is undercounted. I’ve nearly been incessant in insisting the Dobbs decision is the most important factor in this election, and I do not expect to see that fade until the existential edge of reproductive health is once again dealt with in an adult manner – and not religious zealots screaming and running in circles.

Here’s the money quote from gingytheelephantboy:

Here is what I see. Democrats and pro-choice have been outperforming the polls by 5% or more in election after election for two years. And that is where we are today. By the way this doesn’t bother me a bit. If it motivates our voters to turn out like their lives depend upon it, then it is all good.

So the big question is why is this happening. My answer is that the polls are missing something important and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see what it is. They are just not polling enough women, particularly young women, a group notorious for not voting. And they are the very people who have been registering in droves. Of course they are not being polled, they don’t fit the old models.

Keep the above points in mind when evaluating campaigns, stay a bit skeptical of even top rank pollsters – and when choosing for whom to vote. You weren’t going to skip for despair, were you?

What’s this The Washington Post poll, And Why Is It Unrated?

Looking at one of the polls, WaPo doesn’t call out someone else doing, or sharing, the work, and all of FiveThirtyEight’s ratings of WaPo involved its partnering with someone else. Therefore, in the absence of a partner, they are unrated. Fortunately, they only appear once.

Biff! Pop! Pow! Aw, Adam West Escaped — Again!

• CNN/Politics has an article on Pennsylvania Senate challenger David McCormick’s (R-PA) former life as a hedge-fund manager. The article’s headline?
  

  Senate candidate Dave McCormick led hedge fund that bet against some of Pennsylvania’s most iconic companies

  The first couple of paragraphs are all that is necessary.

  In the years that Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dave McCormick led one of the world’s largest hedge funds, the firm bet millions of dollars against some of the state’s biggest and most iconic companies, financial filings show.

  Under McCormick’s leadership, Bridgewater Associates shorted the stocks of nearly 50 companies headquartered in Pennsylvania, including The Hershey Company and US Steel, a CNN review of records from the US Department of Labor found.

  I don’t think most voters will care. Shorting is not an option generally known to the non-investing public, but it’s not an exotic or illicit investment strategy, no matter how much some amateur investors hop up and down in outrage. I have never used it, as gains are limited to roughly 100%, while potential for loss is unlimited; it’s a tool of the confident professionals. Who sometimes go broke using it, just like us long investors.

  This strikes me as a scare article.

  ---

  On the other hand, this article on a ham-handed visit by Mr McCormick to Philadelphia is not in the least surprising.

  ---

  In other, more numerical news, highly respected Quinnipiac University (2.8) gives Senator Casey (R-PA) a 51%-43% lead over McCormick, a thoroughly reasonable lead, with a margin of error of ±2.6 points. Emerson College (2.9) gives the Senator a 48%-46% lead, which is within Emerson College’s ±3 point credibility interval. As with many Emerson College polls, it seems sometimes more rightward-leaning than many pollsters are measuring. TIPP Insights (1.8), working for Republican-aligned American Greatness, gives the Senator a 47%-43% lead with likely voters and a 48%-40% lead with registered voters. The big gap between likely and registered voters seems unlikely, but I’m not sure what it implies.

• In Maryland the University of Maryland Baltimore County Institute of Politics, an unknown pollster, gives Democrat Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) a 48%-39% lead over former Governor Hogan (R-MD). This is in the neighborhood of a poll from a reputable pollster in the last report. Additionally, I know Maryland is a bastion of the Democratic Party, and the weight of an unknown pollster is difficult to measure, but this observation reinforces a point I made above:
  

  Maryland voters are poised to enshrine the right to abortion access in the state constitution, with 69% of voters saying they will support it and just 21% opposed, according to a poll released Wednesday.

  It’s certainly possible that abortion amendments on the ballot of conservative States may sway many voters to favor not only the amendment, but the liberal minority who put it on the ballot.

• Highly respected Quinnipiac University (2.8) has somehow found the Michigan Senate race to be even at 48%. This is certainly mysterious, as other respected pollsters have had Rep Slotkin (D-MI) up by ten or more points. Every pollster can have a blunder, I suppose. For comparison, Emerson College (2.9) has Rep Slotkin leading former Rep Mike Rogers (R-MI) 49%-44%. Emerson College has something called a ... credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of ±3.1 points, which I take to mean Slotkin’s lead could be two points, or eight points. Then again, InsiderAdvantage (2.0) has more of a QU result of Rep Slotkin leading only 46%-45% – a statistical dead heat. However, InsiderAdvantage seems to lean to the conservatives – see that link for some right-wing speculation.
• Quinnipiac University (2.8) has Wisconsin’s Senator Baldwin (D-WI) up by four points, 50%-46%, over challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI), which feels a bit small. Still, the margin of error is ±3.0 points. Emerson College (2.9) has the Senator’s lead also at 50%-46%, with a credibility interval of ±3.0 points. Coincidence? Two converging pollsters? But InsiderAdvantage (2.0) has Baldwin’s advantage at only 48%-47%, or a statistical dead heat. But if InsiderAdvantage is right-leaning?
• In Florida we see discord between two prominent pollsters. The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) sees the Florida race as solidly Senator Scott’s (R-FL) at 49%-40%. Marist College (2.9) also sees the lead as the Senator’s, but only two points at 50%-48%., which is probably within the margin of error, but that is not listed. The former has had some other questionable results, while the latter’s result is more congruent with other recent results.The Marist College poll also notes:
  

  37% have a positive impression of Mucarsel-Powell. 23% have a negative view of her. A notable 40% have either never heard of her or are unsure how to rate Mucarsel-Powell.

  Much like Democratic challenger Rep Allred (D-TX) in Texas, Mucarsel-Powell making herself known to Florida voters may reap big benefits.

• Texas, like Florida, has been polled by The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) and Marist College (2.9), but in this case their results appear to be close, as the former gives Senator Cruz (R-TX) a 48%-44% lead over Rep Allred (D-TX), while the latter gives the Senator a 51%-46% lead. Allred’s chronic problem/opportunity continues, according to Marist:
  

  39% have a favorable opinion of Allred. 36% have an unfavorable impression of him, and 25% have either never heard of Allred or are unsure how to rate him.

  Allred must reach those 25% who don’t know he exists.

• Ohio gets its own paired of polls, but this time Marist College (2.9) is paired with WaPo Poll (unknown), and they both believe the race is within the margin of error, whatever that might be, with the former having Senator Brown (D-OH) leading challenger Bernie Moreno (R-OH), 50%-48%, while the latter has the Senator leading by 48%-47%.
• While I didn’t plan to mention Arizona again, Emerson College (2.9) is giving Rep Gallego (D-AZ) a small seven point lead over election denier Kari Lake (R-AZ), 50%-43%. The pollster comments,
  

  Since last month, Gallego’s support increased two points while Lake’s support held at 43%.

  So perhaps momentum is with Gallego. David Weigel has an interesting differential analysis of Mr. Gallego and Vice President Harris in Semafor here.

• In the shock of the day, The New York Times/Siena College (3.0) sees Montana Republican challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT) leading Senator Tester (D-MT), 52%-44%. Public Opinion Strategies (1.6), sponsored by the Montana Republican Party, gives Sheehy the lead as well, 51%-45%, but the combination of a weak pollster and a partisan sponsor casts a pall over the credibility of that result.
• Envision two Vikings, whacking away at each other with foam light sabers: Nebraska Senator Fischer (R-NE) and challenger Dan Osborn (I-NE) each hired a pollster, ran a poll, and are advertising their results, thus the whacking reference. Senator Fischer’s pick is hardly that of the litter, as for reasons unknown and mysterious she selected unknown pollster Torchlight Strategies, a repeated action on her campaign’s part, and they’ve obligingly found her having the lead over Mr Osborn, 48%-42%.
  

  ---

  Mr Osborn’s pollster is Change Research, which at least has a rating, but it’s a deeply unimpressive 1.4. Nor do they do much published work. They are giving Mr Osborn the lead, 46%-43%. Of course.

  ---

  So how to evaluate this? It’s almost impossible to say, except maybe Don’t evaluate it. I’m going to recognize this as dueling propaganda. Both sides are trying to convince their partisans that the race is still winnable, so come on out and vote. The implied message is entirely honorable.

  ---

  But if I were Nebraskan, I might be irritable. I dislike manipulation, and that’s the essence of this, to my mind.

• In case you wonder about Virginia, Republican challenger Hung Cao (R-VA), who seems to be a Democratic plant, is profiled here by Marc Fisher. If Cao is not a plant, then his approach to winning the seat is puzzling. Does he think a revolution will happen and put him in the seat? That a Trump victory is imminent and he’ll ride the coattails? Or is this a more devious strategy of gaining an objective by losing the race? I am puzzled.

Roll The Credits!

Nyah, too tired. Crank broke. Wife needs attention. Cat needs food.

Have a good weekend, folks.