The hostas are going through their usual decay cycle.
The sedum is pretty, but this signals the beginning of its end. The moth gets to be a minor key in this opera.
I forget what this is, but it provides a bit of soprano among the altos.
My Arts Editor has done some clear cutting as well, but, as it’s raining at the moment, I’ll omit the spur-of-the-moment picture snap.
Or do we just have criminal activity?
This article is from Aug 3 and covers one of the President’s more obscure grievances – but potentially most damaging.
Capital One closed hundreds of Trump Organization accounts in 2021 “for anti-money laundering reasons,” the bank disclosed for the first time in a court filing Friday [I believe that would be 31 July 2026] night.
President Donald Trump has maintained that his businesses were “debanked” for political reasons, and the Trump Organization sued Capital One in Florida federal court last year, claiming “considerable financial harm” from the loss of the accounts.
The latest filing from Capital One in the case before the United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida reiterates the lender’s denial of any political motivation, stating that “the closures were the result of months of analysis” by a team “with decades of law enforcement experience.” [CNN/Business]
Prior to and throughout this second term, not even halfway finished, we’ve seen the President and his allies extract money from his supporters in a number of ways, from memecoins to NFTs to tchotchkes, selling shares in a public company that has little apparent worth, government slush funds, selling pardons to the desperate, using pardons to bind the threatened in loyalty, sold influence on policy positions ranging from foreign relations to cryptocurrency, and I’m sure I’ve forgotten half a dozen more.
So if a chance to score big from money laundering came along, is it hard to see him taking it?
And then getting caught? Remember, this guy may be clever, but he’s not smart.
I’m wondering why the Democrats haven’t used this hammer to continue to chip away at Trump’s base. While there are many devoted fans, even the most devoted can become exhausted through continued news. Eventually, the dead guy on Fifth Avenue becomes the reason to hang the shooter, not celebrate him.
Are the Democrats simply waiting for a vulnerable moment to catch him unawares?
Kleptoproteinism:
The new study, published in Scientific Reports, stated that the case of the golden sweeper is one of the clearest examples of a rare phenomenon known as kleptoproteinism. The term comes from “klepto,” meaning to steal, and refers to organisms that take proteins from other species and use them for their own benefit. It is part of a broader phenomenon called kleptobiology. [Asian Scientist]
Noted in “This Glowing Fish Steals Bioluminescence Instead of Making Its Own Light,” Stephanie Edwards, Discover Magazine:
This finding is the clearest evidence yet of a rare biological strategy called “kleptoproteinism,” and it could reshape how scientists think about how life works at the genetic level.
Yep, that paragraph references the same fish referenced in the definition, if one digests paragraphs I didn’t quote. But the latter magazine’s article is then followed by this:
Instead of producing its own light-generating enzyme — known as luciferase — the fish acquires it directly from its prey. Specifically, it feeds on tiny bioluminescent crustaceans called ostracods or “sea fireflies,” and repurposes their glowing proteins for its own use.
The klepto prefix, meaning stealing : theft [Merriam-Webster], usually implies the victim does not suffer fatal consequences, although the theft of, say, a breathing mask could have fatal results. But the act of the single example known is a byproduct of feeding.
I’d rather see a different term constructed.
It’s been nearly three weeks since I last looked at Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), and, just comparing prices it seems things haven’t changed, it’s worth noting that, according to the chart, most of that time was actually spent down. Here’s the one month chart.
What of their “crpytocurrency treasury?” I do not know if they’ve actually sold Bitcoin out of their treasury, but, if so, their timing may have been unfortunate, as Bitcoin investors continue to exhibit cautious optimism, paying a price of $84K/coin to $85K/coin. Three weeks ago it wasn’t quite $80/coin; prior to that, it was puttering about the $62K/coin mark.
And the virtual emblem of DJT, $TRUMP? Investors, or manipulators, are struggling to keep $TRUMP’s price up, but early buyers of $TRUMP – I cannot bring myself to write investors in this context – continue to be way, way down, even if it’s true that maybe a month or so ago $TRUMP was at only $1.40/coin. Real investors are well aware memecoins like $TRUMP are nothing more than novelties with little intrinsic reason to own them; they are badges of pride for the loyal.
There’s no apparent news for the company, at least to my lazy self, but this company is dependent on the fortunes of President Trump, and those are not promising. Most political pundits are expecting the Republican Party to take the blame for economic and foreign relations failures from voters, a sentiment shared by the President himself, apparently.
The White House has launched another taxpayer-funded television ad before the midterms, this time featuring imagery of President Donald Trump walking down a hall as audio plays of him saying “this is the final battle.”
“We will cast out the communists, Marxists, and fascists. We will throw off the sick political class that hates our country. We will rout the fake news media, and we will liberate America from these villains once and for all,” Trump says in the ad, echoing comments he made during a Veterans Day speech in 2023. [CNN/Politics]
In an environment in which all the polls regarding the President, and most of elected members of Congress, are coming back negative, and a President whose greatest successes were a television show and known to love drama, these doomsday ads suggest he realizes he’ll be losing control of Congress in January. This drama/ad is a last cry for help from the divine.
I expect the media will have tiz-fit over it for a couple of days, and then they’ll move on as the imminent elections come to the fore once again.
But it doesn’t bode well for DJT prices.
I think this Fox clip illustrates the limitations of the Republican Party these days:
RNC Chair Joe Gruters: "This is not your grandparents' Democrat Party. They want to get rid of Thanksgiving. They want to get rid of July 4."
It’s the relentless hammering of the theme that the Democratic Party hates America. I’ve seen it here and from Erick Erickson and a few other conservative pundits – and I don’t go out hunting it.
Meanwhile, the Republicans have, until recently, been supporting President Trump and basically ignoring their responsibility to bring their collective wisdom to the governance and foreign relations question.
Yeah, no snorting in the back of the room.
To return to the observation, the refusal of the Republicans to fulfill the responsibilities of being American legislators amounts to a real betrayal and hatred of America. Depend on Donald “The Amateur” Trump to take care of everything?
I’m sorry, Donald is busy designing ballrooms and pursuing fallacious economic theories.
Here’s the thing, though: This is the same warmed-over pablum from twenty, thirty years ago. That’s all this guy can do – put on a suit and tie and yell that the Democrats hate America.
Old, angry yelling because his Party is incompetent at everything it turns its attention to. And, as RNC Chairman, he bears a great deal of responsibility.
Think about it.
Viceroy:
When a country is ruled by a monarch — a king or queen — and controls colonies or provinces, the monarch can’t govern all those remote areas personally. That’s where a viceroy comes in. The king or queen appoints a representative to rule over the colony or province. This viceroy is the most powerful person in this region, kind of like a king or president. The difference is that the viceroy has to answer to the monarch, his boss back in the mother country. [Vocabulary.com]
A trifle informal. I suppose I should have picked a more authoritative definition. Noted in “Trump isn’t doing himself any favors by giving Rubio too many jobs,” Steve Benen, Maddowblog:
Trump has tasked Rubio with serving as the acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, the acting archivist for the National Archives and the chair of the administration’s World Expo 2035 preparations. The New York Times published a striking report in July noting that Rubio is also, for all intents and purposes, “running” Venezuela, serving as the country’s “de facto viceroy.”
And, on this rainy day, have a picture.
“I heard something,” she said. “It’s a monster. There’s always monsters when you’re around, Espen.”
“Then why did you invite me to your party?”
She shrugged. “What can I say? A good monster enlivens a party.”
“Now that’s just disrespectful.” He hesitated. “Maybe the next one will eat you.”
“I doubt it. I taste like …”
But Espen never heard her self-evaluation of taste. He personally didn’t care for her taste in clothing, anyways.
The Ash Lad: In Search of the Golden Castle (2019; in Norwegian, Askeladden – i Soria Moria slott ) is the sequel to The Ash Lad: In the Hall of the Mountain King (2017), continuing the adventures of the Ash Lad, Espen, his two brothers, and Princess Kristin. In this episode, Kristin’s parents, the King and Queen of Norway, end up dead; the brothers, Per and Pal, end up in a dungeon, where they ambitiously attempt multiple escapes, but fail and end up threatened by an unfortunate fate; and Espen and Kristin go off in search of a cure for the dead Queen and King.
Unfortunately, this script could have a used a few more drafts. As just one example of a plot hole, at one point Espen and Kristin stumble into the ruins of a castle and discover several shriveled bodies. One happens to be holding a desiccated ball, which Espen grabs. He utters no words, there’s been no hints, at least that I remember, that a desiccated ball might come in handy, nothing.
So when it is useful, there’s a definite jolt. Did he know? Is this some of Espen’s knowledge of old fairy tales, which is hardly mentioned in …Castle but was prominent in …King? It felt like a deceitful deux ex machina, not an example of Espen’s utility and wisdom.
This leads me to think that stories are paeans to causality. Random chaos makes for dull story telling, because it teaches chaos as a survival mechanism; however, chaos is precisely not that, and most people know that. Stories featuring random chaos fall into obscurity, and deservedly so. I can remember only one story featuring random chaos, and I don’t recall the title. The author was pulp era standout Jack Vance. Even he could not make it a true classic; it was more of a toss-off experiment. (It’s probably in my library upstairs, but I’m too lazy or in a hurry to go find it.)
Chaos can be made palatable with humor, and there’s certainly some humor here. But between characters who are little more than cardboard and do precisely what is expected of them, and a lack of imagination on the part of the storytellers, this effort is probably not worth your time.
Long-term readers may remember the suit filed against J. Ann Selzer, head of a now-defunct pollster, and the Des Moines Register, by President Trump after the 2024 election. It was dismissed, but apparently reopened or refiled. WaPo now reports:
An Iowa district court has dismissed a lawsuit by President Donald Trump against pollster J. Ann Selzer and the Des Moines Register, saying the Iowa poll and the newspaper’s reporting were fully protected political speech. …
In a decision Wednesday, Judge Scott J. Beattie wrote that election polling is protected by the First Amendment “because it involves a conversation between a pollster and a voter and because the poll itself is speech.” Beattie dismissed the case with prejudice, which means Trump cannot bring the same claim to court again.
I think that’ll be the end of that. I must say the judiciary, with the exception of a beholden conservative wing of SCOTUS, has come through in the era of Trump.
Sidechain:
A sidechain is a designation for a blockchain ledger that runs in parallel to a primary blockchain. Entries from the primary blockchain (where said entries typically represent digital assets) can be linked to and from the sidechain; this allows the sidechain to otherwise operate independently of the primary blockchain (e.g., by using an alternate means of record keeping, alternate consensus algorithm, etc.). [Wikipedia]
Noted in “4,000 BTC (~$320 million) stolen from Liquid Network by claimed whitehats, 90% returned,” Molly White (no relation), Web3 is Going Just Great:
An unauthorized withdrawal of 3,998.5 BTC (~$320 million) from the Liquid Network, a bitcoin , prompted a network halt. By disabling nodes that between Liquid and the bitcoin mainchain, attackers are limited in their ability to cash out via bridge. Blockstream, the developers of Liquid Network, also said they had contacted exchanges to ask them to pause LBTC deposits and withdrawals, cutting off another avenue.
Funny, I haven’t see the term Web3 anywhere in years.
POLLS, POLLS, POLLSTER RATINGS!
Turns out the legendary Nate Silver, now running Silver Bulletin, has updated pollster ratings, and they appear to be free of a paywall. Silver is using an alphabetic rating system, and, for pollsters where there’s a paucity of data, the range the pollster falls into is indicated as, for example, A/B. See this link for the actual ratings and Silver’s explanation. I’ll try to reference them in the future, along with an indication of which way a pollster leans, in parentheses. Not all pollsters are rated, as polls without a comparative reality are difficult to completely evaluate.
And a big thank you to Mr. Silver.
IT’S A STAMPEDE!
It has to be, CNN says so!
The GOP stampede away from Trump is growing – including in pretty red districts
Which illustrates the mistake of using pretty in this context. And reinforces the point running through these Campaign Updates for months now: The Mendacity Machine, aka President Trump, is a burden, not a positive, in most locales. There are a few districts where a candidate’s loyalty to Trump and/or MAGA is important; but most no longer value it, and, in fact, it’s an inverse correlation. Not a neutral factor, but a disaster for such a candidate.
Or, as old blogger Paul Waldman comments, It’s hard to think of many GOP politicians whose careers have been built more on their devotion to Trump. The fact that [Byron] Donalds [GOP nominee for Florida Governor] is backing away from him is incredibe. [Yes, that’s a sic.]
Prices continue to climb as well. This article from the Fox 11 News (Green Bay, Wisconsin) web site illustrates an ongoing problem for the President and his adherents:
Nationally, the average cost for diesel is $6.39 per gallon.
A year ago, the national average for diesel was $2.69 cheaper.
This comes as the war in Iran disrupts the world’s flow of fuel.
Most consumer goods in the United States rely on being transported with diesel-powered trucks.
As diesel prices continue to soar, the cost of your groceries will too.
Even such prices for such basic, necessary services as an oil change for your vehicle has jumped substantially, and, meanwhile, the President is erratically trying to act like a dictator with such directives as banning CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from his press conferences.
A judge has since ordered their passes be reinstated.
BUT A LITTLE SECRET FOR Y’ALL
The role I try to fulfill when writing this blog, besides being a vent hood for the frustrations and interests of my days, is to see the events of the day, well, as I am: a working dude, not yet retired, with no formal training, nor experience, in government and politics, but a generally interested observer who has watched and written about politics and other topics for more than forty years. For those readers shaking their heads in disbelief, social media has reportedly been around since the early or mid 1970s; I became aware and involved around 1984.
Back on point, I’m not a news reporter; I’m a guy who tries to bring an unfamiliar interpretation to topics.
Now I’m having some troubles. I’ve written about President Trump and the Republican Party for years, and now most other writers, with more knowledge and more time than I, have become more aware of the toxicity of the Republican Party, and the mental illness that afflicts the President. It gets harder and harder to find something insightful, that I haven’t seen a dozen time in web search, to say after all these years.
Vent, vent, vent. Andrew Sullivan decided to move on to other topics. Post mid-terms, I’m not sure what I’ll be doing. Vlogger Belle, who runs several YouTube channels for political commentary, suggests we may all be running for our lives. What fun! I wrote about that earlier today.
RIDING A NEW HORSE
Stumpy, the old horse cum dachsund, is here.
However, unknown pollster Texas Southern University does agree, estimating Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46% support. Their voters claim to know both candidates for voting purposes, by and large, so polls in Texas may not change much as we approach Election Day.
But Marist Poll (A-, slight lean Democratic) does not agree with the first two pollsters:
Talarico (50%) edges Paxton (44%) among registered voters statewide in the contest for U.S. Senate in Texas. Talarico receives majority support among independents (55%) Regardless of whom they support, 52% of voters overall think Paxton will win the Senate race.
My bold. A good bet when it comes to forecast meteorology is that tomorrow will be like yesterday, and I think voters are using the same methodology for voting results.
And Marist is also estimating the governor’s race to be a dead heat, another shocker in this archetypal Republican state.
But the news for candidate Paxton may be considerably worse than that:
Former President George W. Bush and Sen. John Cornyn gathered Republican donors for a fundraiser Monday night in support of many of the party’s major Senate candidates, excluding Texas GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton, sources familiar with the event confirmed to ABC News. [ABC News]
The report notes that Michael Whatley (R) of North Carolina and Rep Collins (R) of Georgia were also excluded. Whether you’re perceived as a probable failure or an outcast from the Party, that certainly makes the job of winning harder. Especially if you think that he who has the most money, wins.
The love of money is the root of all evil. 1 Timothy 6:10. As an agnostic, I hardly ever quote the Bible.
And here comes one now: Marist Poll estimates Turek as having a substantial lead of 50% – 42%, with a margin of error of a largish ±4.4 points. Turek’s lead is particularly interesting in view of this:
The partisan breakdown for this survey among registered voters is 29% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 32% independent.
Some Republicans are defecting, as is made explicit: 98% of Democrats, 13% of Republicans, and 49% of independents are voting for Turek. In that last category, only 36% of independents are voting for Hinson, and 14% is the total for Other and Undecided/Refused.
I’m not drawing any conclusions without more polls, but it appears Elon Musk may have:
Some largesse from Musk’s America PAC is already trickling into Iowa to help Republican Ashley Hinson hold a GOP Senate seat in a spirited contest against Democrat Josh Turek.
It’s heartwarming to see a trillionaire help a mere millionaire who is down on her luck. In 2024, Musk spent $290 million to help Donald Trump and Republican candidates. A mere rounding error in Muskatopia.
Musk, it has been reported, wants to change the subject in these Senate races from rising consumer prices, expensive gas and inflation to transgender issues. Clearly, this is exactly what Americans want. [Todd Dorman, The Gazette]
Or is it panic? Money helps achieve a lot of goals, but elections can be a notable exception.
Iowa’s open Senate seat would appear to be up for grabs, even if the Marist Poll correspondents think Hinson will win by a 59% – 37% margin.
According to the [Nebraska Farm] Bureau, the biggest spike they’ve seen is in the cost of fuel and fertilizer. Abygail Petersen, an economist and analyst with the Nebraska Farm Bureau, said diesel prices alone raise costs by nearly 45%.
Petersen said this means an estimated $759 million loss for corn and a $266 million for soy beans. [KLKN-TV]
That’s a harsh punishment for loyalty to President Trump, and may bring about a protest no-vote.
A super PAC funded by the cryptocurrency industry is preparing to spend at least $30 million in the Ohio Senate race to try to block Democrat Sherrod Brown from returning to Washington, the group’s most aggressive move of the 2026 midterm cycle to date.
The move by Fairshake, a super PAC group bankrolled by a trio of leading crypto companies, comes just days after Democrats voted down an industry-backed digital asset bill on the Senate floor. [Politico]
Long-term readers know I don’t have much use for the cryptocurrency industry, which sucks down energy and increases CO2 emissions for software of minimal unique, non-critical utility. In fact, it seems to be little more than a grifter-wonderland. See [no relation] Molly White’s blog.
Remember, marketing dollars stop influencing votes once the contest reaches the margins. Just for that cherry on top, the cryptocurrency industry associating themselves with the Republicans may backfire disastrously as well.
In other news, Quantus Insights (B/C, leans Republican) thinks Senator Husted (R) has caught up with former Senator Brown (D), each with 45%. Seems unlikely.
Stetson University (B/C, which is fairly awful) gives Senator Moody a 51% – 40% lead.
I think Florida, between an ill-organized Democratic support structure and an elderly, conservative citizenry, is likely to retain Senator Moody sans a black swan event that leaves Senator Moody covered in mud. For another, more upbeat, view, here’s Sarah Rumpf on Mediaite.
Today several more polls have appeared, just prior to publication of this Campaign Update. A-rated Siena College is weighing in:
Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 49% – Mike Rogers (R) 44%
Rasmussen Report (B+, Republican lean) claims El-Sayed leads by a 47% – 44% margin with a margin of error of ±3 points, and co/efficient (B, with a heavy Republican lean) has El-Sayed and Rogers tied at 45% with a margin of error of ±3.36 points, which is at odds with Suffolk. Given co/efficient’s predilections, my guess is that El-Sayed holds a small lead.
If you want to see Peltola’s publicity still, presumably provided by the campaign, follow the pollster link. It’s better than most.
But since I’m here, mediocre pollster Quantus Insights (B/C, with a heavy Republican lean) gives Cooper a 48.4% – 43.3% lead, or 5.1 points, which make it a Republican-leaning outlier. They note that this election turns on independents.
High Point University (B/C, no lean) gives Cooper a 50% – 42% lead, and YouGov (B, with a heavy Democratic bias) gives Cooper a 52% – 41% lead.
For the first time in her two-decade Senate career, the Republican lawmaker from Maine was in danger of losing her seat. President Donald Trump’s dismal approval ratings were dragging her down in the polls, and she was falling behind her likely 2020 Democratic challenger in fundraising.
Scott Reed, head of the Collins super PAC, was on a mission to close that gap. Reed was meeting that day with three executives from a Hawaiian defense contractor, Navatek. A year earlier, Collins had helped their company land a multimillion-dollar Navy research contract in Maine. Now, seated at a coffee shop not far from the U.S. Capitol, Reed asked them for a $500,000 donation. [ProPublica]
I’ve seen other news outlets with similar reports, although they may all be sourcing from this report. Her rival, Troy Jackson (D), will be pushing this hard I’m sure.
UMass-Lowell (A-, with a substantial Democratic lean) rates this race at 48% – 43% for Troy Jackson (D). However, their margin of error of ±4.66 points is quite large.
But A-rated Siena College has this race at:
Maine: Susan Collins (R) 49% – Troy Jackson (D) 46%
No margin of error provided, although Maine Public Radio reports this result falls within the margin of error.
The University of New Hampshire (B- and a heavy Democratic lean) puts them in a statistical tie at Jackson 51%, Senator Collins 49%.
New Hampshire: Chris Pappas (D) 50% – John Sununu 45%
This roughly correlates with the poll from InsiderAdvantage (B+) in the last Campaign Update for New Hampshire suggesting Pappas had an 8 point lead.
The University of New Hampshire (B-) gives Pappas a 50% share of the vote and Sununu 42%.
Louisiana’s Democratic Party released a new U.S. Senate poll Sept. 24 that showed Democrat Jamie Davis trailing Republican Congresswoman Julia Letlow by 4%, which party officials believe puts the underdog Davis within striking distance. …
Hart Research Associates conducted the survey Sept. 17–19, 2026, for the Davis campaign. It surveyed 500 likely voters with a 4.5% margin of error. [Shreveport Times]
This is a consequence of all the blunders made by a Party that didn’t screen and train its candidates, and tried to make a virtue of this sin. Louisiana may be second only to Alabama in allegiance to the Republican Party. What’s next? A loss in Alabama? They’re already threatening to elect Senator Tuberville (R) to the governor’s mansion, so that seems unlikely, although how Alabamans would go about removing that particularly blot from their honor really escapes me.
All luck to Mr. Davis.
Michele Tafoya, the Republican Senate nominee in Minnesota, recently denied ever saying she was embarrassed to be from the state she wants to represent, but a digital deep-dive review by CNN’s KFile found she had done just that.
In a local radio interview earlier this month, the former NFL sideline reporter was asked whether Minnesota embarrassed her, and she insisted that wasn’t true. “If I were embarrassed to be from Minnesota, would I be running for the United States Senate to represent Minnesota?” Tafoya said. “I have never said that.”
But in a since-deleted March 2023 post uncovered by the KFile team, Tafoya wrote: “I’m embarrassed to say I live in Minnesota. This state has gone so far left it’s amazing any of the snow still sticks.” [Raw Story]
I doubt that’ll damage her campaign.
But if I may make a serious suggestion, Mz Tafoya, get out of the Republican Party. Right now. That’s a change that might help you win an exceedingly close race.
FIN? NO FIN?
Here’s the list of States hosting Senate races that I think are decided and I shan’t cover any longer because it’s a tidal wave of results. You think the above was tiring to read? I had to write it. Most of it by hand, barring the occasional quote. Dispensing with these States will ease composition.
Alabama (R), Delaware (D), Florida (R), Georgia (D), Illinois (D), Massachusetts (D), New Jersey (D), New Mexico (D), North Carolina (D), Oklahoma (R), Oregon (D), Rhode Island (D), Tennessee (R), Virginia (D), West Virginia (R), and Wyoming (R). Naturally, a black swan sighting will result in removal from this list.
… would be, oh, impossible?
Belle of the Ranch has a logical and fairly scary view of the future. This video describes this view, informed by the military training some of her team has:
They forgot one weapon, though, and that would be EMP (Electro-Magnetic Pulse) weapons. These disable or destroy unshielded computers; the shields would probably be made of lead. How thick of shielding?
I’m not sure. Heavy enough to inhibit drones? Maybe. And the stronger the EMP, the thicker the required shielding.
EMPs, like nuclear weapons, are indiscriminate, although they kill people only through collateral effects, at least at relatively low strengths. So I understand, at least. This means we may have to decide: computers and unending wars, or back to the ’50s, not only for invaders, but for us, too.
Funny, we have a car show with that exact name in our neighborhood.
The ever delicately nuanced Randy Rainbow:
I just learned an old friend and former colleague, Don Lee, passed away sometime in the last couple of days. A group of us would get together on an annual or semi-annual basis, and Don often showed up.
RIP, Don. I’ll miss you.
A new Reuter/Ipsos poll is out:
President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell to 32% – the lowest of his political career – as his fellow Republicans soured on his handling of the cost of living amid the unpopular Iran war, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
The poll, completed on Sunday, was conducted over a four-day period that saw Trump throw three major news organizations out of the White House and muse that Washington’s iconic Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts — named after slain President John F. Kennedy — could be torn down if Trump’s own name could not be added to it.
It found voters leaning away from supporting Trump’s fellow Republicans in the November 3 midterm elections that will determine control of Congress for the next two years. [Reuters]
The midterms will be a calamity for the Republicans if this continues and even deepens, and that may happen. The President appears to be unwilling, or unable, to move his focus to critical topics such as inflation, Trump’s War, foreign relations, etc.
Instead, he works on renovation of D.C. I think there’s two reasons for this.
First, folks under immense pressure often revert to doing what they think they do well. A former boss of mine has a story about the time one of my employers began to collapse. When the C-suite (CEO, etc) were kicked out, he and another fellow, whose primary experience was in testing, were moved up to develop a new product. The pressure was immense, and my former boss later reported that the other guy was spending all of his time … writing up test specs.
President Trump is certainly under a lot of pressure.
Second, it’s how Trump leaves his mark. There is little surprise here; the story of Trump proclaiming at Mt Vernon, George Washington’s plantation, that Washington blundered by not putting his name on everything, is well known. Trump wants fame and glory, and it’s become clear he’ll be getting notoriety and ingloriousness.
Trump seems to deal with disaster by threatening to destroy the world and then getting back to his branding work. As Belle of the Ranch noted this morning, he threatened to absolutely destroy Iran if they won’t make a deal.
Again.
But will he? No.
Oh, he might bang the table a little bit, but there’s a collection of reasons not to.
Right wing pundit Erick Erickson will be disappointed that we’re not trying to eliminate Iranian leadership, but the JCPOA had the Iranian problem under control, and it was Trump who trashed it and started Trump’s War.
So we’re seeing the break between Trump, his backing billionaires, and his base of support growing larger and larger. Will it shatter before or after the midterms?
Pristine stars:
It is a common theory that after the Big Bang, the universe was composed of hot, soupy particles that eventually expanded and cooled. During this time, patches of neutral hydrogen gas formed. Some of these patches grew heavy and dense, eventually causing the material to collapse in on itself over hundreds of millions of years due to the gases’ gravity. These dense patches would go on to form the first stars, composed of pristine hydrogen and helium, according to the study. [“Most Pristine Star May Have Been Spotted 80,000 Light-Years From Earth,” Monica Cull, Discover Magazine (paywall)]
Hadn’t ever heard of pristine star before. Why not earliest or oldest? Probably because age is inferred, but chemical makeup can be measured directly.
Want to get Texas off of fossil fuels?
157 degree turf temps in NFL game melt cleats and force Eagles coach to take IV
That’s the headline. Texas without football .. isn’t Texas any more.
This won’t make Donald J. happy:
This is in response to CNN, as well as non-television outlets, being banned from White House press conferences. MS NOW, another banned outlet, reports the television outlets are suspending coverage of the President.
For a pathological narcissist, accustomed to attention, even if not adoring, losing all the television networks from press conferences will be, on the surface, aggravating, and just below the surface will come the whisper that Donald J. Trump is no longer significant, that people won’t turn to him and consider his opinion important.
Thank goodness.
I expect we’ll be hearing more hooting and hollering from a President who desperately wants adoration, and isn’t getting it.
News Editor Troy Farah of salon brings up an important point, off the cuff:
Yet some people still aren’t convinced he’s really back, or at least not in any meaningful sense. A 10-second video of the press yelling at McConnell to speak or give a thumbs up — with seemingly zero response from the senator — has gone viral. Even Trump acolyte Laura Loomer shared it, saying “Mitch is brain dead. You can’t look at his face and say he’s not a vegetable. He’s not even responding to cognition tests. It’s like wheeling a corpse around. Worse than what the Democrats did with Joe Biden to be honest. He looks incapacitated.” [salon]
Reading between the lines, this is speculation concerning whether or not our government is trustable, and that’s a problem. Of course, pundits like myself had read the news reports on the mendacity of Donald J. Trump early in his first term and begun the chorus of He’s lying!, loud and clear.
But the audience didn’t hear it. Let’s clarify the problem: How many of us know one or more liars who have both experience with acting and a certain charisma?
Not many of us, I’d wager.
The American public, the said audience, didn’t hear what they didn’t want to hear; and the Democrats miserably ran around and let their own pack of wannabe autocrats take at least some control of the Party and offer candidates and candidate teams who it turned out were lying and trying to smile their way through autocratic procedures.
And the Republicans continued to crumble and managed to elect a number of smaller liars and predators; some, like Santos and Gonzales, were kicked out, and, yes, let’s add Democratic leader Eric Swalwell to that list.
So now we have to slog our way through articles such as the above: Is McConnell brain-dead, body-doubled, kidnapped by Democrats, sucked into the sky by aliens? Now we have to deal with conspiracy theories spewing from the mouths of those who have found it profitable to do so. From Alex Jones of InfoWars to Lara Loomer to Troy Farah to, just guessing now, Tucker Carlson and Glenn Beck to your favorite Democratic Socialist who’s hungry for power, it’ll be conspiracy theory time.
How many times will I have to see a news report one some Trump supporter who’s spewing something about election cheating? And are they in earnest, in the face of the lack of evidence of same, or are they casting a line out, hoping power will come to them? That’s what this is often about.
Yes, dear reader, if you’re American then ready yourself for the deluge of conspiracy theories. For quite a while a number of people have been convincing themselves that those in power must be lying, whether it be about vaccines or their bodies becoming magnetic or chemtrails or, hell, space flight or chupacabras. Will you believe?
Or can we get back to the business of soberly living life?
Gibbous:
gibbous (comparative more gibbous, superlative most gibbous)
- Curved or bulged outward.
- (astronomy, of a celestial body) Having more than half (but not the whole) of its disc illuminated.
- Coordinate term: crescent
- Humpbacked.
Odd that I looked at gibbous and didn’t know the definition; it’s always been one of those words that I’d look up later. Noted in “A NEW CRATER ON THE MOON,” Spaceweather.com:
Now is a good time to look. The Moon is a [sic?] waxing gibbous in the evening sky and the crater stays lit until Sept. 27th. Don’t expect to resolve the crater, it’s quite small, but its fresh ejecta is the brightest thing for miles, so it registers as a high-contrast speck against the dark mare.
If mare seems nonsensical in this context to my reader, here’s an explanation of lunar mare, which is, briefly, a basaltic plain on the Moon formed by by lava flowing into an impact basin. And here’s an illustrative photo from here.
You can check out the new crater by following the Spaceweather link, above.
Out for an evening perambulation, are we? Mind the rabid raccoons.
The Toxic Avenger (2023) tells the semi-cliche story of the evil businessman whose actions are not community-oriented, but merely self-oriented. The toxic byproduct he produces turns a random citizen of the city into a monster, like magnified versions of the businessman’s henchmen, rock band, and family. Losing his family to horror, the man must take a horrible revenge on the businessman.
It’s, in some ways, very ancient Greek, yet very giggly.
The style reminds me a bit of The Suicide Squad (2021) in its amiable acceptance of blatantly mutant people, working out the consequences and how to connect them to human evil. If you liked that, you might like this.
Or if you’re an Elijah Wood completist.
THE PREDICTED PANIC
As GOP Members of Congress discover Trump’s interests are not their interests, rumblings of the herd worried about harrying hunters is beginning to sound…
Republican senators are privately complaining their party isn’t advancing legislation that helps ordinary voters ahead of the crucial midterm elections, according to a new report. …
One unnamed GOP senator on the ballot accused the White House of “putting a noose around all of our necks” by escalating its trade war with Canada so close to the election, the outlet said Wednesday. …
Trump’s trade war is drawing backlash from other Republicans who fear voters will blame them for the economic pain, particularly in border and farming states. [Raw Story via MSN]
President Trump’s need to prove that he’s dominant is not compatible with an electorate that has a voice to use, ears to hear, and minds to learn. No doubt Trump thinks he can lie his way out of anything, but Americans have had a lot of time to observe, analyze, and switch sides.
Something Democrats should note with humility.
And the Republicans may be acting on these observations of Trump:
SIENA SPEAKS!
The latest poll from Siena College and The New York Times has the following foreboding-for-Republicans conclusions:
- By 51-43% Likely Voters Favor the Democratic Candidate for Congress in their District
- Voters Trust Democrats Over Republicans on Healthcare (60-36%), Immigration (52-45%), and the Cost of Living (51-43%)
Speaks for itself, doesn’t it? Unless the polling is broken, which has been a problem over the last decade. Still, given the dismaying likelihood of mendacity from politicians these days, especially among Republicans, this poll is not implausible. And it fits right in with the Republican panic.
DOWN TO THE PAVERS
Take The Yellow Brick Road, To The Valley Of The Jolly Green Giant….
Looking at the political inclination details, 88% of the Republicans surveyed are voting for Paxton, while 94% of Democrats are voting for Talarico, suggesting a small but significant enthusiasm gap. Geographically, central Texas is leaning Talarico, while West and East Texas lean more toward Paxton.
Top-rated Siena College gives Talarico a 49% – 43% lead, and among Hispanics, the great Republican hope, the lead is 62% – 31%. That should be encouraging for the left side of the spectrum as well as those disgusted by Paxton. The margin of error is ±4.3 points.
However, Emerson College has Talarico and Paxton tied at a very close 47% – 46%, with a margin of error of ±3 points. They also give Talarico the Hispanic vote by 54% – 39%. Emerson College seems a bit more cautious in their approach to polling than some pollsters.
Then there’s ReconMR/Siena College, which is estimating Talarico leads Paxton 49% – 43%, which may cause national Republicans to begin plotting when they’ll stop throwing good money after bad. Siena College was top o’ the heap in 2024, and the Texas trend appears to be bigger leads for Talarico.
I don’t usually cite co/efficient polls, but for contrast to illustrate how polling can be contradictory, co/efficient has given Senator Sullivan a 48% – 46% lead over Peltola, and claims the Senator is more likable than Peltola, 46% – 41%. Radically different models, or just straight up dishonesty?
When FiveThirtyEight was still active, Rasmussen Reports was considered to be so bad by that site that it wasn’t even given a rating, only a notation that it was Republican-aligned and to avert one’s eyes. This is the first time I’ve run across them in the 2026 season, and they’re claiming Alaska’s Senator Dan Sullivan (R) is tied with Democratic former Rep Mary Peltola (D) at 39% apiece, with a ±3 point margin of error. For a Republican-aligned pollster to admit to a tie, the situation must be a bit bleak for the Republican. Furthermore,
Seven percent (7%) would vote for Republican Daniel J. Sullivan, whose presence on the ballot has brought accusations of Democrat skullduggery. Six percent (6%) would vote for Republican “perennial candidate” Gerald Heikes, and nine percent (9%) are not sure.
And this …
The incumbent Sen. Sullivan is supported by 59% of Republican voters as well as 15% of Democrats and 36% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats would vote for Peltola, as would 18% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Twenty percent (20%) of Republicans would vote for either Heikes (11%) or the other Sullivan (9%). Twenty-four percent (24%) of unaffiliated voters are not sure which candidate they would vote for.
If this wasn’t Rasmussen Reports I’d consider those findings significant.
In other news, Osborn was caught on the horns of a dilemma hot microphone recently, expressing views of rural voters who favor President Trump. His reply comes via KMTV-3:
At one point in the recording, Osborn appears to say Trump supporters’ “lives suck.” Osborn said he was capturing the anger of himself and voters across Nebraska.
“I’m talking about people (that) are pissed off,” Osborn said. “People are disenfranchised, and that is what Trump captured in Nebraska. He captured people who are angry about the political system.”
Well, that might work. I’ll be having bated breath until the next poll comes out.
In the humor department …
Outside spending in the primary was minimal. Sierra Club Independent Action, a super PAC, reported a single independent expenditure of $10 in support of Coons on June 22, described as a website endorsement. That figure is the only periodic-report transaction in the supplied race data through Aug. 12. [Legis1]
Delaware’s race has certainly had very little mention in the Updates.
Notably, Ohio voters want to see their candidates clashing. In a YouGov question concerning debates, in excess of 80% of those surveyed think it’s important that Senators show up at debates.
Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed took a jab at Mike Rogers tonight after his Republican opponent said he would not be participating in what would have been the first debate in a closely watched race for an open Senate seat in Michigan.
“Mike DODGERS is too cowardly to show up to debate me,” El-Sayed wrote in a post on X, accompanied by a photo of him in a TV studio in Detroit across from an empty podium.
Rogers’ campaign said in a statement that he would skip the debate because the moderator, WJBK-TV [a Fox affiliate] news anchor Roop Raj, displays “bias and favoritism.”
I doubt that’ll impress Michigan independents, and may cost Rogers some votes. Of course, if Raj is a Democratic Socialist then maybe Rogers has a point … although my suspicion is that going into the den and bearding the lion is much more impressive than refusing to take a risk. I’m not saying that’s right, but it’s how American audiences often lean.
A new poll suggests El-Sayed is clinging to a lead:
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Michigan poll finds 48% of Michigan voters support Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, and 46% support Republican Mike Rogers for U.S. Senate. Four percent are undecided.
On The Issues: Mike Rogers (R-MI).
This is the sort of lead that makes me wonder if it’s just an artifact of the model of the electorate being just a bit off, especially as the margin of error is ±3 points, because it keeps repeating. Then again, only 4% undecided suggests a polarized electorate. That’s also congruent with small, consistent leads. For the record, a WaPo/Schar poll estimates similar numbers. So does conservative pollster InsiderAdvantage.
Finally, The Detroit News has endorsed former Rep Rogers (R) for the Michigan Senate seat. This is behind a paywall, so I will not try to quote from it, but Michigan News Source provides a bit of it:
“Mike Rogers is clearly the best choice for Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat and gets our endorsement,” the board wrote. It cited the 63-year-old Rogers’ experience in the military, the FBI, the Michigan Legislature and the U.S. House.
The editorial board also criticized Rogers’ Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, arguing that the former health official lacks the government and policymaking experience needed for the job.
It’s hard to argue with their point concerning El-Sayed’s lack of experience, as he doesn’t appear to have held elective office, and the Senate is no walk in the park. But do Michigan voters want a hard-right specimen like Rogers? It seems to me that both Parties have done the Michigan electorate a disservice.
In contrast, unknown pollster Quantus Insights gives Senator Ossoff a 48.2% – 44.4% lead. I don’t take that one too seriously.
Perhaps the boos were fair and representative after all, as reported in the last Update for Kansas.
Booker, the Democrat running to replace U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, received 40% in the poll of likely voters compared to Barr’s 49%.
The poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, had a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. [Fox 56 via yahoo! news]
Global Strategy Group had an unimpressive 1.8/3 rating from FiveThirtyEight.
The campaign-commissioned poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling on July 21 and 22, initially found Letlow leading Davis 41% to 37%, with 22% of registered Louisiana voters undecided. After respondents heard biographical descriptions of both candidates, the result moved to 42% for Letlow and 38% for Davis, with 20% undecided. [bayou progressive]
Public Policy Polling had a poor rating of 1.4/3 from FiveThirtyEight. Of more recent vintage is this:
Republican Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy said he won’t endorse Congresswoman Julia Letlow in her Senate campaign, but predicted that she will easily win the Nov. 3 election to replace him. …
“She hasn’t asked me for my endorsement,” Cassidy said Sept. 15 during a conference call with reporters. “She doesn’t need my endorsement. She has President Trump’s endorsement, and that what matters in our state.” [Shreveport Times]
Dr. Cassidy’s missteps have been numerous, by which I mean poorly thought out votes to confirm very questionable nominees, such as Robert Kennedy, Jr as the HHS Secretary, in the Senate. So should I trust his judgment about his soon-to-be ex-constituents? Beats me. As a default, I think the answer is ‘yes.’ But he could be wrong.
Conservative pollster InsiderAdvantage estimates a smaller lead of 48.4% – 42.5%. I think I trust Harper Polling over InsiderAdvantage.
Do I believe it? No, this is Florida. But my mind is open. More polls of Florida, please.
STATE FLIPS
Just in this Update, States seemingly moving towards flipping their Senate seat’s political designation on Senate Inauguration Day are Texas, Alaska, Nebraska, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina. This, I think, exclusive of Minnesota, is the tidal wave I thought might be coming for the Republican Party, the party who worships amateurs and amateurism.
That was a lot of shocking news in just a couple of days, and we still have a month or so to go.
It appears Americans may have had enough.
PREDICTIONS?
Oh, well. I’d say I’m not drunk enough, but since I drink a cup of wine a year, two when I’m excited, I guess hiding behind that excuse won’t work.
So let’s make it easy: Texas, Alaska, Nebraska, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, and North Carolina will flip, along with South Carolina. That’d be 8 flips of Republicans to Democrats, and one the other way.
Senator Schumer would be vindicated, although claiming to be a genius would be silly. The Republicans made a huge error when they elected President Trump, and we’ve been watching it ever since.
And now I’m going to hope the news slows down a bit. The last two days have been very busy.
Erick Erickson is mad at the lack of laissez-faire free market when it comes to artificial intelligence, which he perceives as not being dangerous. In fact, at one point he says…
Every month we spend building a cabinet-level agency to license what amounts to math is a month the Chinese Communist Party gets for free.
Someone should remind him that physics, the foundation on which nuclear power is really based, just amounts to math.
Then ask him if he wants a close up and personal look at a reactor in operation.
Math is the tool we use to predict what will happen if we apply specific forces to situations, where satellites will be in δ-t, even the slippage in time between us here on the surface of Earth and our GPS satellites.
It only amounts to math? On a machine networked to other machines, from computers to data collection systems to control systems. Yes, including that last.
That’s why this is a laugher, if grim. I won’t comment on specific alleged threats, because I’m not tracking LLM-based AI and whether various specimens have broken out of sandboxes and that sort of thing. But the simple fact that these are running on networked machines makes this more than math. Just what, I’m not sure. But a little caution may save us from looking stupid.
SO, SO DEEP?
Years ago I predicted deep-fakes would mess up our elections and society, and I was not unique in that regard. This is now beginning to take place in the election arena:
Late last month, left-wing firebrand Hasan Piker showed his Twitch viewers a social media post quoting a supposed audio recording of a Jewish American politician saying that the primary objective of his campaign was to aid Israel.
Piker displayed the post during a monologue on American Jews and Israel that has since roiled the Democratic Party and upended a U.S. Senate race in Michigan.
But even now, weeks later, it is still not publicly known whether the audio recording in question is even real. [WaPo]
A “left-wing firebrand” uses this to take advantage of the conflict in Gaza, but …
The politician the audio is attributed to, Michigan state Sen. Jeremy Moss (D), has said the clip was manipulated or fabricated and “peddles in offensive tropes” about dual loyalty. Digital-forensics specialists who examined it for The Washington Post found no evidence that it was AI-generated or manipulated but could not establish who recorded it, whether the voice was definitively Moss’s or whether the excerpt had been stripped of relevant context.
This is deeply troubling, of course. Even if this is a false alarm, the future will surely feature such deep fakes, and we’ll need to understand how to detect them and minimize their effects on society.
And why is this important? Because, as a society, in order to come to best solutions, we need to use facts and honesty, and not treat this as a legitimate, yet frantic, race for power. Power motivates a lot of people, but that is not the predicate for our society – because such predicates often lead to mutual distrust and, consequently, violence.
Have you decided how to research such potential fakes?
OUR ANCHOR IS ON FIRE!
The good news is that we’ve taken another step towards blocking interference from the Post Office when it comes to mail-in votes. The bad news? The President’s hair seems to have caught fire.
It’s getting harder and harder to be a far-right Republican; the epistemic bubble has become toxic. The thing is, I suspect it’s toxic on both sides.
DOWN IN THE VALLEYS
Still, I expect Alme will win this in the absence of the black swan.
Texas Republican Ken Paxton is getting a major infusion of financial help in his Senate battle with Democrat James Talarico.
A new super PAC linked to Senate Republican leadership has purchased at least $32 million in airtime to boost the controversial Republican attorney general, according to the tracking service AdImpact. And President Donald Trump’s super PAC threw $10 million into the race last week.
The wave of GOP spending comes as a number of recent polls have shown Paxton slightly trailing Talarico, including a recent AARP poll that Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio’s firm helped conduct. [Politico]
Yeah, and buying votes is a diminishing returns strategy, especially in this indirect manner. This is a clear signal that nominating Paxton was an unforced blunder. Cornyn must be gritting his teeth something fierce.
A top campaign staffer for Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) once used a photo of SS soldiers as his Facebook profile photo and recently added to a public playlist of songs celebrating Rhodesia, a defunct White-minority-ruled nation often venerated by white supremacists, according to publicly available social media activity.
The staffer, 25-year-old Stephen Woytek, was tapped in August to serve as Husted’s political director in the closely contested Senate race between Husted and former senator Sherrod Brown (D).
In a statement on Friday, after being contacted by The Washington Post, a spokeswoman for Husted said the campaign had decided to “part ways” with Woytek. [WaPo]
Points for firing Woytek immediately. But could this have been avoided completely? The Ohio electorate will be making that decision in 6-7 weeks, and they may not vote for a political movement welcoming members who find such belief systems congenial.
A pastor kicked off a recent campaign stop for Michael Whatley, the Republican nominee for Senate, with a prayer that asked God to bestow “integrity and honesty” upon the event and to right wrongs “hammered down on the conservative movement.”
The prayer was hardly unusual by North Carolina political standards. What was surprising was the man who delivered it. Pastor Daimon L. King is a registered sex offender, twice sentenced to prison for convictions involving children, according to state and court records.
Whatley’s campaign immediately pointed fingers at the hosts, the Craven County Republican Party.
Whatley’s campaign must handle this unfortunate incident with delicacy or he could look doubly bad. Seeing as we’re talking about Republicans, this may be a major challenge.
Conservative pollster Trafalgar Group gives former Gov Cooper (D) a 48.2% – 42.3% lead over Whatley. The margin of error is ±2.9 points.
Earlier in the forum [at the Kansas State Fair], Marshall got cut off mid-answer by chants of “shame on you” from the audience as he attempted to explain his approach to collecting on patients’ unpaid medical bills as a rural doctor in Great Bend. [The Kansas City Star]
Honestly, this is hard to evaluate because the environment and audience, if it’s anything like the Minnesota State Fair, is uncontrolled. In other words, the cards might have been stacked.
HONESTLY, NO
Some readers might ask if I’m playing favorites, above, with the bad news items for Republicans. No, if I ran across similar items for Democrats, I’d relay them, too. I don’t run across those as often.
RE-EVALUATING
Voters seem to be re-evaluating their sympathies. I suspect quite a few are looking at the fourth-raters on one side, shaking their heads, and considering the third-raters on the other.
Here’s the sedum turning a bit red while hosting a guest:
A phlox or two, since taken to composting, with their own guest.
And the home of the late, we presume, Ralph the Magnificent, who’s a bit blurry here. I need a better camera.
He was an orb weaver spider who later disappeared, presumably spawning and dying. Or following the wasps we saw him lunching upon into death.
