ONLY A FEW MORE DAYS TO MAKE THAT DECISION
Unless, like my Arts Editor and I, you took advantage of early voting.
BUT THEY ONLY HAVE A C+!
Yes, the CNN/SSRS partnership spat out a collection of polls today, and, despite their low rating from Silver Bulletin (C+ with a big Democratic tilt), I’ve made them part of this informal summary that informs me of the status of the various Senate races. Maybe Steve Benen’s claim these are high-quality justifies it, but more likely the proximity to Election Day, and need for material, motivates me to include these possibly dubious polls.
AND ON TO THE NEWS
I don’t feel too serious today, not like yester … day.
- Texas polls … Texas Southern University (unrated) is giving James Talarico (D) a 49% – 47% lead over Ken Paxton (R), MoE of ±2.19 points. Notably,
54% of Independents intend to vote for Talarico, with 38% intending to vote for Paxton, 6% for Brown and 2% undecided.
CNN/SSRS is more generous, with James Talarico (D) leading 49% – 43%, MoE of ±4.2 points.
Finally, Belle of the Ranch has a commentary on the latest Talarico controversy supposedly roiling Texas. Assuming she’s an AI, sarcasm appears to be a challenge. - In New Hampshire, UMass-Lowell (A-, strong Democratic lean) estimates Rep Pappas (D) leads former Senator John Sununu (R), 48% – 41%, with an MoE of ±5 points. This is congruent with a previously reported St. Anselm poll.
Agreeing with me on another point,
Trump receives low marks as president from a majority of respondents in both polls. Among likely Granite State likely voters, 61% disapprove of his job performance. Notably, 22% of self-identified Republicans and 24% of respondents who said they voted for Trump in 2024 disapprove of the job he is doing.
In the Bay State poll, 74% of respondents disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while 25% approve, resulting in a -49 net approval, lower than the -36 net approval recorded in a 2020 UMass Lowell/YouGov poll of Massachusetts registered voters.
This may explain why Trump’s rallies are confined to States that he’s confident still support him.
- In Alabama, Blueprint Polling (B/C with a mild Republican tilt) has Rep Barry Moore (R) leading, 47.8% – 39.5%, over Everett Wess (D), MoE of ±3.72 points. Big lead? No. The last poll for which I have a record, from the Alabama Daily News, gave Moore a 15 point lead. Blueprint is mediocre at a B/C rating, so I don’t know that I would trust them, push come to shove, and Wess making up 8 more points seems unlikely as well. Still, if this is accurate, I must take off two hats, first to Wess for perseverance in the face of overwhelming odds, and second to President Trump, for managing to offend his, arguably, most loyal State.
- CNN/SSRS has Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading former Rep Mike Rogers (R), 49% – 42% in Michigan. That’s a bigger than normal lead for El-Sayed.
- CNN/SSRS has Maine Democrat Troy Jackson (D) leading incumbent Senator Susan Collins (R) 49% – 45%, with an MoE of ±4.5 points.
- CNN/SSRS has Kansas Democrat Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) pulling away from Senator Marshall (R), 49% – 45%, with an MoE of ±4.5 points.
- Mississippi does seem to be in play, or at least so the tea leaves are spelling out:
Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is spending $500,000 with Mississippi Democratic Senate candidate Scott Colom in a coordinated ad buy, according to details first shared with Semafor. [Semafor]
- So what’s going on in Louisiana?
I’m going to be doing a major TeleRally for Julia Letlow, who is running for the U.S. Senate and is spectacular, and our fantastic Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, on Monday evening, LIVE. …
MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP [Trump’s Truth]
Perhaps Trump’s Truth is a head feint site? I’ve never heard of it before. I do see the note on the left of the page: Our site archives all of Donald Trump’s TRUTH Social posts, providing a searchable index of his statements, video transcripts, and image descriptions. Or is Letlow in trouble and looking for a boost? Hmmmmm. I note my last Louisiana update concerned Danny Cherry making the case for an upset.
- co/efficient (B with a heavy Republican tilt) estimates Rep Hinson (R) leads Josh Turek (D) in the race for the open Iowa seat, 48% – 46%, with a MoE of ±3.05 points. Interesting, but perhaps worthy of doubt.
- East Carolina University Poll (B/C with a tangible Democratic lean) gives South Carolina’s Senator D. Graham (R) a 51% – 47% lead, with a credibility interval, much like an MoE, of ±3.7 points.
Meanwhile, WaPo reports that President Trump’s decision to aggressively endorse and back Senator D. Graham still has South Carolinians stirred up:
Republicans remain fractured over President Donald Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate five days before the election, with Democrat Annie Andrews surging in polls as Trump returned to the state on Thursday to again make his case for Sen. Darline Graham.
“All the places we’re in trouble in the country, and he’s coming to Rock Hill, South Carolina,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-South Carolina), who lives in Rock Hill and challenged Graham for the nomination, said in an interview. He called her a “propped-up candidate” and said Trump’s team is trying to “shore her up” in what is usually a safe Republican seat.
Rep Norman bitter? Sure he is. But the facts that Darline Graham (R) was selected to replace her brother, that Graham and far-right extremist Rep Ralph Norman (R) were the two credible competitors, is reflective of the toxic culture of the Republican Party these days. I’ve discussed this many times, and it comes down to a shift in judging candidates, discarding and even loathing such traditional factors as experience, excellence in governance, and skill in compromise, while focusing on allegiance to ideology. If one can do the anti-tax jig or the anti-abortion waltz or the anti-regulation flapper dance, well then you’re well-positioned to win a nomination; if you have experience or skill at compromise, well, then you’re a swamp monster who should be ejected. Only if you’re easily ordered about and manipulated and even blackmailed are you acceptable to Trump and his ilk.
The Republicans made a huge error when they followed such guttering torches as former Speakers Newt Gingrich (R-GA) and Paul Ryan (R-WI), and I hope they can toss out the idiots promoting these metrics and return to, you know, traditional metrics. - And, finally, have the Democrats let the Alaska Senate seat slip through their hands?
Republicans are launching investigations into Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola’s campaign amid allegations that she and other Democrats colluded to recruit spoiler candidates in her highly competitive race against Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) said late Wednesday he would order an investigation into whether Peltola should face criminal charges or civil action, and the House Oversight Committee sought testimony from two staffers reportedly involved in the alleged recruitment scheme. [WaPo]
I’m not precisely sure what the nature of criminal charges might be, and neither is WaPo or its experts, but this is really up to the Alaskan electorate. Do Alaskans resent the alleged trickery? Or are they indifferent and will vote how they’ll vote regardless? We’ll find out on Wednesday or even Thursday, when Alaska results usually report.
But I can’t help but notice the usual hyperbole. Sen. Sullivan told Fox News host Sean Hannity that the allegation against Peltola’s campaign was “a scandal at the highest order.” No, the entire Flood the primary to pick the shitty candidate is of a higher order, and both sides have performed that particular ritual.
Still, what if you’re an Alaskan voter repelled by both Senator Sullivan and former Rep Peltola? What to do?
Vote non-Senator Sullivan.
ANY FINAL WORDS?
Not really. I could discuss lame duck impeachment proceedings, but I see that as requiring a very bad result for Republicans, and a coordinated desire to take revenge. Getting that by a pathetic Speaker Johnson (R-LA) seems unlikely.
Still, if Letlow of Louisiana fails in her bid to replace Senator Cassidy (R-LA), for example, then Cassidy might encourage House colleagues to push through an impeachment, and then Cassidy could have his revenge for being primaried by a Trump-endorsed candidate by leading the Senate court proceedings to impeach Trump.
It’s low probability, but certainly not impossible. And the message it sends to future incompetents would be quite the service to the Nation.
No final words, really.
FIN
