THE FREIGHT TRAIN MAY BE ALMOST HERE
It’s less than a week to Election Day. I think it’d be repetitive to note that President Trump is a drag on Republican candidates, but in inverse correlation to the redness of their State. However, there’s a chronological decay factor involved in which, as time progresses, Trump supporters become disaffected and drop out of the movement.
The realization that they’re associating and supporting a grifter and incompetent can be discouraging, although the perceived elevated social position will slow many down in leaving the … group.
MARGIN OF ERROR
I have to say that any MoE (margin of error) greater than 5 points makes my hair itch, because the larger the margin of error, the less utility I impute to the poll. Even if it’s a highly rated pollster, such as Marist Poll, I still scratch mightily at my hair.
There. Venting done.
Oh, and The New York Times/Siena College is giving a range for an MoE of ±3.9 points to ±4.3 points. Annoying.
WHEN DO I DISCARD POLLS?
Generally, unknown pollsters stand a better chance of being cited than any pollster Silver Bulletin rates below a B- or B/C. But there are no guarantees.
WHAT’S WITH THESE REPEATED LINKS TO AN ECHELON INSIGHTS DOCUMENT?
Echelon Insights issued a single document that covers multiple polls. You’ll have to search in the document for State-specific results.
But what’s also interesting, and makes me wonder if I should omit these results, is the wording of the questions, of which I’ll quote the Florida example:
[QFLSenateBallot_Voted] Who did you vote for in the election for the U.S. Senate?
[RANDOMIZE 1-3]
[QFLSenBallotFull] If the 2026 election for the U.S. Senate were held today and you had to
make a choice, for whom would you vote? [RANDOMIZE 1-3]
[QFLSenateBallotFullLeaner] And if you had to choose today, which of the following
candidates would you vote for? [RANDOMIZE 1-3]
Is this just meant to be used before and after Election Day?
Keep this in mind when reading Echelon Insights results. This may just be a matter of my ignorance, as I’m not a polling professional, of course.
AROUND THE FAR CURVE
We can only hope, eh? Each hoofbeat banging the drum … oh, sorry.
- Maine remains a toss-up in the Senate race, as The Trafalgar Group (B with a heavy Republican lean) sees the race as Senator Collins (R) barely leading Troy Jackson (D), 47% – 46.5%, Undecideds at 6.5%, with an MoE of 2.9%.
Marist Poll, on the other hand, gives Jackson (D) a 49% – 47% lead over the Senator, but with a MoE of ±6.6 points. Sheesh.
Echelon Insights (A-), with a more extreme result, has Maine Senator Susan Collins (R) trailing Troy Jackson (D) 51% – 44%, with an MoE of ±6.3 points. That MoE makes me nervous about that result. - Michigan also remains a toss-up, as Michigan State University (A/B) gives Abdul El-Sayed (D) a 47.7% – 44.2% lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R). MoE is ±4.4 points.
- South Carolina remains shockingly tight as, according to Targoz Market Research (B-, strong Democratic tilt), Senator D. Graham (R) leads Dr Annie Andrews (D), 47% – 46%, with a MoE of ±2.77 points. A statistical tie, as they say.
The New York Times/Siena College (A, tilt to the Democrats) has the two candidates tied at 48%.
The Citadel (B/C with a slight Democratic lean) shows Senator D. Graham (R) leading 43% – 39%, with a MoE ±4.5 points. However, this is of Likely Voters; the situation is reversed with Registered Voters, with Dr Andrews leading 40% – 35%, and 20% Undecided. That strikes me as odd, and could be a deciding factor if the registered but unlikely voters can be persuaded to vote.
In endorsement news, Dr Andrews has received the endorsements of two former South Carolina governors – one of them a Republican.
Senator D. Graham (R) is allegedly receiving support from pro-data center super PACs, and Dr. Andrews is trying to use that to tar the Senator. Given the general anti-data center mood of the country, Dr. Andrews may succeed.
Finally, vanquished Graham rival Rep Ralph Norman (R) sounds fairly bitter about this entire business of replacing the late Senator Graham, and neither D. Graham nor Andrews is spared as he mutters about manipulation. Thing is, change the State to Alaska and he may be right. I haven’t read this New York Times article due to it being behind a paywall, but from summaries it does sound like the Peltola campaign has been engaged in manipulative behaviors. - Texas‘ Senate race remains close, but may be showing signs of the Democratic lead strengthening. A N+ Univision/YouGov (the latter has a solid B rating along with a solid Democratic lean) poll gives James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R), 50% – 45%, with an MoE of ±3.8 points. Further, in the Latino community the lead is 55% – 37%. The fumbling amateur-hour Republican leadership appears to be losing the Latinos who were leaning towards the Republicans, and that’s in the face of offensive, as in offending, behavior by the Democrats.
- A Glengariff Group (A/B with a Democratic lean) poll in Michigan suggests Abdul El-Sayed may be building a lead, with an estimate of 51.4% support vs former Rep Mike Rogers (R) having 45.1%, with a MoE of ±4.0 points.
- Echelon Insights (A-, with a slight Republican lean) has Ohio Senator Husted (R) and former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) tied at 47% apiece, with an MoE of ±5.2 points.
Suffolk University (A-, tilt to the Democrats) gives the former Senator Brown (D) a lead of 46.6% – 43.8% over Senator Husted (R) - Echelon Insights (see above) has Florida Senator Moody (R) leading Angie Nixon (D) 51% – 43%, with an MoE of ±5.0 points.
The New York Times/Siena College (A, tilt to the Democrats) gives Senator Moody a 50% – 44% lead over Angie Nixon.
On The Issues: Angela Nixon (D-FL).
ActiVote (unrated for unknown reasons) has Senator Moody leading 53% – 47%, MoE of ±4.9 points. Here’s an observation that explains Moody’s lead:
Moody holds her side of the spectrum more firmly than Nixon holds hers. Nixon takes 99% of the left and Moody 92% of the right, but Moody takes 89% of the moderate right against Nixon’s 77% of the moderate left. On top of that, Moody wins the center by 61% to 39%.
Florida’s an older state, and Nixon is not a moderate.
- Echelon Insights (see above) in Iowa has Josh Turek (D) leading Rep Hinson 45% – 43%, with an MoE of ±6.5 points. Really? This trend towards larger MoE makes me nervous. Are pollsters polling fewer and fewer voters, or are they more nervous about their electorate models?
- Echelon Insights (see above) has Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts (R) leading Dan Osborn (I) 47% – 46%, with an MoE of ±6.3 points. With that sort of MoE, it practically is shrieking I’m irrelevant!
- In Minnesota The New York Times/Siena College (A, tilt to the Democrats) gives Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan (D) a 54% – 40% lead over Michelle Tafoya (R). Did Tafoya lose her balance on the Trump and/or abortion tightropes, thus alienating her base? A 14 point lead is not what we’ve been seeing from SurveyUSA. Or is this evidence she’s tied strongly to Trump, because Trump’s approval rate has dropped from 32% to 20% in Minnesota, from the same poll, over the last, oh, six weeks?
FINNY
Not many of these left, thank goodness.
