SET IT TO A DRUMBEAT: EPSTEIN, GUILFOYLE, GRENELL, … TRUMP
Yes, this story is quite repetitive:
- The Mississippi Senate race has the capacity to be the biggest shocker of the election season, not only because it’s been Republican for decades, but because it’s so … bloody … quiet. Thus, we have to read the tea leaves
goat entrails. The biggest tea leaf is Senator & Pastor Raphael Warnock (D) of Georgia, who has been campaigning in Mississippi this season.
Raphael Warnock is racing to get Democrat Scott Colom elected in deep-red Mississippi. It’s part of his bigger bet on the South.
Colom, a charismatic local prosecutor, is within striking distance in the polls of unseating Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. And in the absence of more dedicated resources, Warnock himself is trying to fill the gap by directing money and donors to the race. [Politico]
They speak hopefully of being within striking distance, but the truth is that the pollster is Wedgewood Polls, which appears to be new, at least to Silver Bulletin, which knows nothing about Wedgewood. So is candidate Scott Colom (D) really closing in on Senator Hyde-Smith (R)? Are they on the edge of a catastrophic upset? I think the fog is rolling in and no one’s sure.
Is this a political smear?The Mississippi Free Press reported Friday that Scott Colom’s U.S. Senate campaign says they have verified that a mugshot of the Lowndes County District Attorney from 2001 shared by the Hyde-Smith campaign “is fake,” further claiming that it was “likely being generated by AI.”
However, Magnolia Tribune has learned that the mugshot shown here is indeed real. [Magnolia Tribune]
- In Montana there may be a major shake-up, albeit ten or more days ago as I missed it: Concord Public Opinion (A/B) suggests Kurt Alme (R) has lost the lead in the Senate race for Montana’s to-be-open Senate seat, with Seth Bodnar (I) now at 37%, Alme at 35%, and Alani Bankhead (D) tied with Undecided at 13%. However, there are two concerns. As a friend points out, the sample size is small at 405 respondents, resulting in a MoE of a largish ±4.87 points. Secondly, who sponsored the poll? Seth Bodnar. Neither concern outright condemns the poll, but they can both be markers of a poll not worthy of trust, as does the fact that Concord hasn’t much of a history.
Bankhead’s sinking in the polls may possibly be explained by the attack by the former Montana Democratic Party chair noted in the previous Campaign Update report on Montana.
This tidbit from Concord is surprising only in that it’s not worse:
President Trump is unpopular in Montana: President Trump is viewed negatively by a majority of Treasure State voters; he has a -17-point net favorability rating (41% favorable / 58% unfavorable). Trump’s negative favorability rating is in line with national polling averages.
More polls of Montana, please. Oh, here’s one now, but sadly it’s from Peak Insights, which is unrated by Silver Bulletin, despite claiming to have 40 years of experience. They estimate Alme has a comfortable lead with 44%, while Bodnar has only 22%, and Bankhead is at 19%, with a MoE is ±4 points. Another poll showed up yesterday from Quantus Insights, but a rating of B/C casts some doubt on their estimates of Alme having 43.8%, Bodnar 28.2%, and Bankhead 20.6%, with an MoE of ±4 points.
It’s not so easy to judge the state of mind of Montana voters simply by consulting a poll aggregation site. - Last week I missed a new KSTP/SurveyUSA (A) poll of Minnesota’s Senate race. It shows Lt Gov Flanagan (D) picking up the pace, giving her a 45% – 42% lead over Michelle Tafoya (R), with a credibility interval (much like an MoE) of ±4.2 points, so this appears to be likely a tie. The Trafalgar Group (B) has Flanagan leading at 48.1% – 44.6%, MoE of ±2.9 points. These are congruent with the Minnesota Poll of the last report on Minnesota.
- FROM THE ANNALS OF POOR STRATEGY. Man, you gotta be careful calling in the big guns when you’re in trouble. I wonder if Senator Marshall (R) of Kansas is having a case of the regrets in the dusty wake of President Trump’s rally speech:
Donald Trump: And I also gave Kansas a waiver to sell E15 [a mixture of gas and corn used as an alternative fuel by many vehicles in the Upper Midwest, a source of income to corn farmers] all year round. And with Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E15 permanent. But if Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it. That’s it. I’m only doing it for him. That’s a big deal for Kansas, actually. [Roll Call]
How many Kansans realized they were the recipients of a mean-spirited threat, something akin to blackmail? How many will knuckle under? More from Steve Benen here.
But the Senator may be in more trouble, but this would be obscure: his latest FEC filing suggests no one is being paid to work on his campaign.
Numerical news: InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) gives Senator Marshall (R) a 48% – 47% lead over Pastor Hamilton (D), MoE of ±2.83 points. - This news may not have immediate consequence, but it may be even more important. Senator, and incidentally former state AG, Ted Cruz (R) of Texas is attempting to assist Ken Paxton (R), current state AG, in his Senate campaign.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is not up for election this year, but he is campaigning across his home state as though he is.
Rather than pitching himself, Cruz is making a spirited case for the Republican Senate bid of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Cruz, a conservative firebrand, is trying to rally the party’s base in a year where Republicans fear many of their voters will stay home. He has poured money into supporting Paxton, introduced the attorney general to his large network of donors and even gave him sartorial advice after President Donald Trump mocked Paxton’s appearance despite having endorsed him. [WaPo]
An association with scandal-ridden Ken Paxton (R), even were he to win, might put such a blemish on Senator Cruz that he’ll lose his next re-election run. Or forced to not run for President.
In numerical news, Marist Poll (A-, Democratic tilt) has Talarico leading Paxton, 47% – 45%, but with a largish MoE of ±4.9 points. Pollster University of Houston (B/C) gives James Talarico (D) a 48% – 46% lead over Paxton, MoE of ±2.19 points, a statistical tie, while new pairing CBS News/YouGov (the latter being a B) has Talarico in a 51% – 49% lead, MoE of ±3.5 points. InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) runs against the grain, giving Paxton a 49% – 48% lead, MoE of ±2.83 points, as does Quantus Insights (B/C with a solid Republican tilt), with a very tight 47.2% – 46.7% lead for Paxton, and an MoE of ±3.6 points. - Strange bedfellows in Ohio?
A GOP-aligned super PAC has more than tripled its investment in the Ohio Senate race over the last week as it seeks to boost a socialist candidate — an apparent attempt to sink former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s chances. [Politico]
No. The Socialist says … we condemn this attempted deception of voters. Both Parties are guilty of similar nonsense in past elections.
Unknown pollster Bowling Green State University gives former Ohio Senator Brown (D) a 48% – 42% lead over Senator Husted (D), with a MoE of ±3.95 points. Interestingly, the gubernatorial race has Amy Acton (D) leading Vivek Ramaswamy (R), 50% – 44%. Will there be downballot consequences for Republicans running for House seats? Keeping in mind that we don’t know the quality of this pollster.
But Marist Poll has an A- with a Democratic tilt, and they say Brown has a 48% – 44% lead over Senator Husted with a largish MoE of ±4.5 points. Much like Bowling Green, they give Acton the lead in the gubernatorial race, 50% – 43%. While in isolation it appears the Senators are statistically tied, the predilection of most pollsters to find Brown leads makes me think he may win. - I consider the re-election of Senator Ossoff (D) in Georgia to be certain, but President Trump threw a rally for his opponent, Rep Collins (R), and shot what little is left of his credibility concerning previous elections into orbit:
At a rally in north Georgia, Donald Trump again claimed that the 2020 election in Georgia was fraudulent, alleging that the election of US senator Jon Ossoff was illegitimate.
Ossoff, who faces US congressman Mike Collins in November, does not represent Georgia’s values, Trump said.
“And he was never elected,” Trump added. [The Guardian]
I suppose this’ll be repeated ad nauseam as Trump tries to summon his God to the task of denying realities.
- South Carolina’s Senator D. Graham (R) is in trouble and getting some help.
President Donald Trump will campaign for Darline Graham tonight at a mid-week, midterm rally many see as a last-minute effort to push her over the top in her unexpectedly close race against Democrat Annie Andrews.
A year ago, the idea of a Republican president campaigning for a Republican incumbent in one of the state’s most conservative regions would have been unthinkable. Trump won South Carolina by nearly 18 points just two years ago. [Palmetto Politics]
If you can call it help. Trump’s return to one of the most Republican states in the Union speaks volumes as to his unpopularity, as well as the failure of his policies.
This may be reflected in this Trafalgar Group (B) poll, which finds Senator D. Graham (R) leading Dr Andrews, 48% – 46%, MoE of ±2.9 points, so it appears to be a tie. South Carolina Republican Party officials must be experiencing a hair standing on end moment. - Speaking of help, here’s former Senator John Sununu (R), running to once again represent New Hampshire in the US Senate, putting his relationship with President Trump on display.
John Sununu in a new TV ad: “The way [rival] Chris Pappas [(D)]tells it, I’m President Trump’s long-lost son. I’ve never even met the man.”
Includes video! But, in case anyone needs a hint, this is another example of Republicans walking away from the power of the Republican Party.
A poll from National Public Affairs (B/C) gives Rep Pappas (D) a 50% – 43% lead over the former Senator John Sununu (R). Incidentally, the report is labeled as being for Iowa. - National Public Affairs (B/C) finds Rep Hinson (R) leads Josh Turek (D), 47% – 44% with a MoE of ±3.8 points in Iowa. However, the Iowa gubernatorial race has the Democrat by 5 points, which might give Turek a boost at the actual polling station.
The Trafalgar Group (B) also gives the lead to Rep Hinson (R), 45.9% – 44.2%. 6.4% are Undecided, so they’re the decision makers.
co/efficient (B, with a heavy Republican tilt) also gives the lead to Rep Hinson, 48% – 45%, with a MoE of ±3.32%, while handing the governor’s contest to Sand (D).
YouGov (B with a Democratic tilt) has it a very tight race at 47% – 46% for Turek, with a MoE of ±3.1 points.
Marist Poll (A-, Democratic tilt), however, gives the lead to Josh Turek (D), 48% – 45%, MoE a largish … ok, really big … ±6.6 points. Gubernatorially, the Democrat Sand leads Republican Lahn 52% – 45%, which may drag a few more votes over to Turek at the voting station. - Marist Poll (A-, Democratic tilt) is giving Abdul El-Sayed (D) a 50% – 48% lead over Rep Mike Rogers (R) in the Michigan Senate race. From the same report:
The Democrats running for Congress (52%) are +6 points against the Republicans (46%) on the ballot among Michigan likely voters. A majority of independents (54%) report they are supporting the Democrat on the ballot.
While the +6 points favoring Democratic candidates should be encouraging, frankly the small imbalance in Michigan independents is quite disappointing. I wonder what Michigan Democrats have been saying of late to offend them.
Rasmussen Reports (B+ with a substantial Republican tilt) gives El-Sayed a small lead of 46% – 44%. - WEAK CANDIDATE OR STARTLING REVELATION? And does it extend to the Oklahoma Senate race?
The Democratic Governors Association announced Tuesday it is investing half a million dollars to flip the governor’s mansion in Oklahoma — a state the president won by 34 points in 2024.
The race between Republican former state Sen. Mike Mazzei and Democratic state Rep. Cyndi Munson is a statistical tie, according to recent polls. That includes an internal Munson poll from Workbench Strategy obtained by POLITICO, showing Mazzei has an edge but within the margin of error. [Politico]
And Politico has an observation that will play an important part, I think, on Election Day:
The investment also spotlights yet another Trump-backed Republican winning a bitter primary only to struggle in the general election — a vivid example of why many in the party have been nervous about the president putting his finger on the scale.
That doesn’t really seem to apply to the Senate race, however.
- In Nebraska a poll from National Public Affairs (B/C) suggests Senator Ricketts (R) leads Dan Osborn (I) 49% – 46%, with a MoE of ±4 points.
- A new pollster pair, MDW Communications + Edge Communications, polled Florida:
[Senator] Moody [(R)] leads the Senate race by 5.2 points. Ashley Moody 47.6%, Angie Nixon [(D)] 42.4%, with 10% undecided.
How accurate are they? These numbers don’t seem plausible, but sometimes events on the ground can impact polls quickly. Significantly, University of North Florida (A/B, heavy Democratic lean) just published a poll for the Florida Senate race, and they have similar numbers: 49% – 45%, with a MoE of ±2.81 points. Is a day or two short of two weeks time enough to make up 5 points? Or will this be similar to the last Rick Scott (R) challenge, where it looked close until Election Day, when Senator Scott won by 13 or so points? Well, honestly, the real question is whether President Trump will flub away those five points through stubborn lying.
- In Alaska, Rasmussen Reports (B+ with a substantial Republican tilt) gives former Rep Mary Peltola (D) a 44% – 42% lead over Senator Sullivan (R).
- And Maine doesn’t miss out on all the fun: InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) gives Troy Jackson (D) a 49% – 47% lead over Senator Collins (R), MoE of ±2.83 points.
- Finally, these guys claim the Senate race in New Jersey, featuring Senator Booker (D) and Justin Murphy (R), is within the margin of error, according to a recent poll. Who ran the recent poll? They don’t say. This is a lesson in recognizing bad commentary.
THEY’RE STARTING TO CALL THEM
Media outlets are beginning to implicitly call races that, at the start of the election season, were not considered safe, and that’s bad news for the Republicans. In this Update, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper (D) is considered the unexpected shoe-in by outlets Carolina Forward and the Winston-Salem Journal.
SORRY IT WAS SUCH A LARGE LUMP
News is coming faster than anticipated. Good night!
