FROM HERE ON OUT
It seems likely that from now ’til Election Day there shan’t be many surprises left to happen with Senatorial candidates. It’s quite unlikely anyone will drop out, or almost as unlikely to change a position. However, many States will see more political ads, and the more perceptive candidates may try softening positions, even public displays of humility, in order to appeal to independents. Of course, they run a risk of losing their base, Democrat or Republican, as the base of each Party does love absolute positions.
More’s the pity.
The President is another story. He is neither a regular American politician nor a rational person. He’s a narcissist, driven by base urges: retribution, vanity, avaricious, and something for which I lack a single word, an urge to get God’s eye through acquisitiveness, if Chad Bauman’s theological upbringing theory for the President is accurate.
So, for those of us of a rational mien, the next four weeks or so could be an unsettling exercise in self-glorification.
THE REASONABLE PLEA
Columnist George Will of WaPo is pleading with voters:
Vast Republican carnage should not be entirely indiscriminate. Two Republicans especially deserve to win their Senate contests.
If Mike Rogers, former seven-term congressman and chair of the House Intelligence Committee, is not Michigan’s next senator, Abdul El-Sayed will be. The Democrat is comfortable in the company of antisemites and Holocaust deniers.
If Sen. Susan Collins loses in Maine, this will be partly because she did something admirable and senatorial. Standing against manufactured hysteria, she voted to confirm Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. In 4,192 words spoken on the Senate floor, she examined his extensive judicial record and the sexual assault allegations against him. Demonstrating the complete lack of corroborating evidence, she concluded that the allegations could not meet even the minimal “more likely than not” standard. Read her statement and marvel at its sobriety about the Senate’s “advice and consent” duty. This is vanishingly rare among incumbent senators of both parties.
While certainly liberals and independents have been given good reason to be infuriated at Republicans who tremble before billionaires who may hold the power of social position and prestige over them, voting in support of those who seem moderate also sends a message supporting more moderate positions. Yes, that’s tautological.
The question then becomes whether or not Will’s candidates are truly moderates.
For Will, Collins is a moderate, but it sure seems like she supported an unrestrained President most of the time. Add to that her advanced age, which always begs for a minute examination of her behavior in order to detect a faltering intellect, and suggestions of corruption, and one must wonder if it was truly wise for the Maine GOP to nominate Collins yet again.
In Michigan, voting for Senator may be a bit of a mug’s game. Dr. El-Sayed (D-MI) has no legislative experience that I’ve seen anywhere, and may in fact be, through association, an anti-semite. Much of the left, which is not the same as Democrats, may be comfortable with that, but most independents won’t be.
On The Issues: Mike Rogers (R-MI).
But former Rep Rogers (R-MI) is no rough gem for independents or even moderate Republicans, as can be seen in the On The Issues summation to the right. He’s a far right wing ideologue, and so should not be attractive to thoughtful voters.
Any good independent candidates in Michigan? There are four minor party candidates, but none appear attractive. Michigan voters, you have my sympathies.
JARGON NOTE
Below, “MoE” mean margin of error.
AND THEN THERE’S NEWS
I’ll try to be the soul of brevity with poll results, which are numerous for certain Senate races. Within each State I’ll sort them by pollster history rating, obtained from Silver Bulletin. Other gossip might provoke me to comment. Y’all need the last batch of ephemera? Here it is.
A summary of the below might note that it appears races are tightening; or pollsters are exerting themselves to drag voters to desired candidates. I have no independent evidence for the latter.
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On The Issues: Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan (D-MN), “Moderate Liberal.”
In Minnesota, InsiderAdvantage (B+ with a slight Democratic tilt) has Lt Gov Flanagan (D) leading Michelle Tafoya (R), 46% – 45%, certainly a statistical tie, although no MoE provided.
Flanagan’s On The Issues summation is displayed to the right, but, on review, it appears to be based on a paucity of evidence.
- In Iowa, The New York Times/Siena College (A) suggests Rep Hinson (R) leads Josh Turek (D) 48% – 47%, with a MoE in the ±4.5 point range.
Fox News, using Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A- with a Democratic tilt), estimates Josh Turek (D) leads Rep Hinson (R) 49% – 47% with a MoE of ±2.5 points.
Quantus Insights (B/C with a solid Republican tilt) gives the lead to Rep Hinson, 47.1% – 45.8%, over Turek, with a MoE of ±3.8 points.
All of the above are statistical ties.
- Maine’s Senator Collins (R) leads Troy Jackson (D), 48% – 46% with a MoE of ±2.77 points, according to co/efficient (B, strong Republican tilt).
CBS News, using YouGov (B with a Democratic tilt), has Jackson and Senator Collins tied at 50%, with a large MoE of 4.7 points.
The Trafalgar Group (B with a substantial Republican tilt) has another statistical tie, Jackson ahead 46.2% – 45.9%, with a MoE of ±2.9 points.
The AARP, using FabrizioWard/Impact Research (probably B/C with a very slight Democratic tilt, but the names don’t quite match those in the Silver Bulletin database) gives Jackson the lead as well, 50% – 47%, MoE of ±3.1 points.
Unknown pollster Wedgewood Polls gives Jackson a 52% – 48% lead, but with a monstrous MoE of ±4.9 points.
See the above section concerning a plea, if you will, by columnist George Will. No pun intended.
- Michigan remains a tight race. Fox News, using Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A- with a Democratic tilt), puts Abdul El-Sayed (D) and former Rep Rogers (R) in a statistical tie at 50% – 49%, respectively, with a sampling error of ±2.5 points.
The Trafalgar Group (B with a substantial Republican tilt) gives El-Sayed a 46.9% – 45.1%, with a MoE of ±2.9 points.
- Texas state AG and Republican nominee for Senate Ken Paxton (R) is the star of yet another article chronicling dubious behavior:
Instead, records show, the conservative firebrand announced his bid on Fox News, cleared his calendar and booked a hotel in Augusta, Georgia, during the storied Masters golf tournament, a trip that cost Texas taxpayers at least $25,000.
The trip reflected a transformation that has unfolded over Paxton’s 11 tumultuous years as Texas’ top law enforcement official: His focus has increasingly extended beyond state lines. As he steadily built a national political profile and became a star in President Donald Trump’s MAGA universe, Paxton traveled frequently and spent less time in Texas, according to an Associated Press review of state and campaign records. [AP]
Paxton doesn’t understand how to attract and influence voters; he depends on their trained response to his skills of proclaiming his allegiance to anti-tax, anti-regulation, anti-abortion, and other Republican tenets, and that they’ll ignore his self-indulgent behaviors. Their training may be fraying, if I read the poll responses rightly, as they discover that blindly voting for politicians solely on the basis of what they spout into the microphone does not result in reasonable choices. Will these misbehaviors be enough to drive away Texas voters?
Will his antagonist, James Talarico (D), misinterpret a victory to mean a Texas endorsement of his progressivism?
The New York Times/Siena College (A) suggests Talarico’s lead over Paxton may have expanded to 51% – 45%. Given a large MoE in the range of ±4.5 points, this is still a statistical tie.
Fox News, using Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A- with a Democratic tilt), gives Talarico a 51% – 48% lead over Paxton. USA Today notes,
Talarico has the support of 98% of Democrats and 68% of independents, while 89% of Republicans back Paxton, according to Fox News.
I view this as a protest vote against Paxton.
- In Ohio, The New York Times/Siena College (A) gives Senator Brown’s (D) a lead over Senator Husted (R), but at only 49% – 46%, meaning it’s a statistical tie.
InsiderAdvantage (B+ with a slight Democratic tilt) estimates this race has tightened up to the point where former Senator Brown leads Senator Husted 44% – 43%, MoE being ±2.83 points. That’s not in accordance with other polls showing Brown with a tangible lead, i.e., outside the MoE.
- In rarely polled South Carolina, InsiderAdvantage (B+ with a slight Democratic tilt) suggests Senator D. Graham (R), sister of the late Senator Lindsay Graham (R), and appointed to the position, to be in deep trouble, as they estimate her lead to be 46% – 45%, with a MoE of ±2.83 points, which results in a statistical tie. This is a shocker for Republicans.
President Trump’s endorsement of Graham?
Almost 10% of Republicans say they are voting for the Democrat. This is likely a “hangover” with Republicans devoted to Ralph Norman from a race that is too fresh in their minds to forget.
Not as effective as he likes to pretend.
- co/efficient (B, strong Republican tilt) estimates Nebraska Senator Ricketts (R) now leads Dan Osborn (I), 45% – 40%, with an MoE ±2.92 points. The Senator has an unfortunate net likability of -7 points, but Osborn is in worse shape: -13 points. The pollster does not speculate as to the source of dislike.
- In Alaska’s Senate race, The New York Times/Siena College (A) has former Rep Mary Peltola (D) leading incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R) by a substantial margin of 50% – 43%, with a MoE of … between 4.5 and 5.5 percentage points … which seems rather large.
In contrast, Quantus Insights (B/C with a strong Republican tilt) has Senator Sullivan leading former Rep Peltola, 46.1% – 45.5% in a statistical tie. Money quote:
… Peltola holds a 22-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.
- The New York Times/Siena College (A) estimates Senator Marshall (R) is tied with Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) at 45% apiece in the race for the Kansas Senate seat.
co/efficient (B, strong Republican tilt) sees Senator Marshall leading Pastor Hamilton, 49% – 44%.
In contrast, The Trafalgar Group (B with a substantial Republican tilt) gives Pastor Hamilton the lead, 44.4% – 43.5%, with a MoE of 2.9 points.
- Danny Cherry Jr makes the case for an upset in the Louisiana Senate race.
FIN
There’s not much to summarize here. The Minnesota estimates speak to Flanagan’s involvement, as Lt Governor, in the Walz Administration, and the associated failure to stop welfare fraud before it ever got started. Fair or not, I suspect it’s influencing a race that would otherwise be a sleepy election of a Democrat to a safe seat.
This speaks to general American revulsion at corruption in the government. President Trump, of course, is a walking pit of corruption; MAGA and the Republican Party, both through association and independently, are considered corrupt; and voters are wary of corruption in both parties.
