THE BILLIONAIRES SEEM OBTUSE
Meaning they aren’t seeing what’s there to be seen, which is this:
- Elon Musk: … bringing his total [political] giving this cycle to more than $442 million. [Politico]
- Jeff Yass: … has now invested nearly $110 million to boost GOP candidates in the midterms. [MS NOW]
- A super PAC funded by the cryptocurrency industry: … raising the group’s total spending in the [Ohio Senate] race above $55 million. [Politico]
- And this bunch.
What are we seeing? A massive transfer of wealth from people who think they can afford to spend it to, well, there’s going to be hands out everywhere to get a slice of this pie. Many of them will be honest business folks, providing some service such as making the ads, broadcasting, etc, but also the odd hand from the smiling grifter.
I will refrain from saying the election is the most magnificent grift ever concocted to relieve befuddled billionaires of their riches, because I honestly don’t believe it. But it’d make for a great movie.
I suspect this transfer of wealth to purchase the intangible will reverberate down the decades, though, as billionaires fought to buy votes, win or lose, discovered most Americans don’t sell their votes, and incidentally put on display all those eccentricities that they can afford to fund, and discover that, no, they’re not the bright new ideas that everyone praises, but are rejected by voters.
Then they’ll scamper home, metaphorical wallets a bit skinnier, and themselves a bit more learned. Maybe.
I have never understood the cachet of being a billionaire. Who wants to interview all those bodyguards and avoid the State Fair?
OH, DO YOU LIKE MY JEWELRY?
Yes, it’s an anchor. Five tons or thereabouts, so said the jeweler.
Along with the Ohio debacle of Trump and Vance, as noted below, Trump continues to engage in corruption. Don’t take my word for it, take the word of … most of the electorate:
IT SEEMS FRANTIC OUT THERE
I’ve been doing this since … I don’t remember. Nor do I recall the news this late in the election cycle being quite so exciting. I think the Republicans were told they couldn’t possibly lose, and so they’re trying their darndest not to lose, and, yet, the electorate rejects them heartily. I’m thinking there’s a lot of puzzled members of Congress, GOP caucus.
While I’ve caught you reading that bit of vapid prose, above, I shall remind you that MoE is Margin of Error, below. My fingers tire of typing it.
WELL, THAT WAS QUICK!
Yeah. Sure was. And me falling further and further behind on my non-political reading, too.
- Emerson College (A rated with a Democratic tilt) gives Senator Mike Rounds (R) of South Dakota a 50% –
42% lead over challenger Brian Bengs (I). In contrast, Mason-Dixon Polling (A- with a slight Republican lean) gives Rounds a larger 56% – 37% lead, and Public Opinion Strategies
(A, slight Republican lean) has Rounds lead at 54% – 37%.
While I doubt
Bengs will be winning this race, keep in mind that six years ago, Rounds won by 30+ points, with a MoE of ±3.5 points. If Bengs keeps this gap below ten, that’s a major lesson to South
Dakotan Republicans that independents do not approve of their message or methods.
Will they understand it? - Emerson College (A rated with a Democratic tilt) gives James Talarico (D) of Texas a 48% – 46% lead over Ken Paxton (R), with a MoE of ±3 points. Money quote:
The economy remains the top issue for a plurality of Texas voters at 39%, up three points from September, followed by immigration at 16%, threats to democracy at 13%, education at 12%, and healthcare at 9%.
Fox News (using Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, A- with a pronounced Democratic lean) estimates the pair is tied at 49% each, with a MoE of ±2 points.
The San Antonio Current reports the Russians are messing about in the Texas race:Russian hackers are once again attempting to influence U.S. elections, this time putting Texas on the front lines, the New York Times reports.
According to intelligence officials speaking to the Times on condition of anonymity, an infamous Russian influence operation is attempting to meddle in Texas’ U.S. Senate race by spreading deepfake videos alleging misconduct by Democrat James Talarico.
As ever, the Internet becomes less and less trustworthy.
- Alabama has a surprising poll:
New polling shows Republican U.S. Rep. Barry Moore has a 15-point lead over Democratic nominee Everett Wess in the race for Alabama’s U.S. Senate seat.
An Alabama Daily News and Gray Television poll of 500 likely general election voters found that nearly 50% would support Moore if the election were held today, compared to 35% who plan to vote for Wess. About 15% of Alabama voters remain undecided in the race to succeed U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville. [Alabama Daily News]
The surprises are three-fold. First, Moore has not yet exceeded the 50% level at this point in the race. Second, his lead is only 15 points. For context, the previous Alabama Senatorial race
was won by then-candidate Katie Britt (R) by 36 points in
2022. Third, and a reflection of #1, 15% of Alabama voters have not yet made a decision.
While it’d be a major upset if Wess is representing Alabama in the Senate next year, his performance makes clear that even Republican strongholds are feeling the effects of economic incompetence and political extremism, and its incompatibility with the American mainstream. - A major political brouhaha has broken out in Ohio, and it may end up affecting the Senate race. Gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R), trailing rival Amy Acton (D) with two weeks until Election Day, released a political ad of the ad hominem variety:
[Ramaswamy] said Tuesday he is putting $4 million behind a 60-second advertisement that features video of Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur, calling her daughter a liar and urging Ohioans: “Don’t let her become your governor.”
Acton, 60, has not had contact with her mother since she was 12 years old. She and her brother were removed from Arthur’s home after a grand jury indicted Arthur’s second husband on a charge of raping Acton. [WaPo]
Many politicians of both Parties have condemned the attack ad, including Senator Husted (R), who is running for election to his seat (he was appointed to it after VP J. D. Vance had vacated it in order to fulfill his new responsibilities, so technically it’s not reelection):
“I would not have run that ad,” Sen. Jon Husted (R), who faces former senator Sherrod Brown (D) in a hotly contested race, said in a statement to the Associated Press that was also obtained by The Post. [WaPo]
That may or may not be enough in an atmosphere of intense economic and social distress for a significant portion of the electorate. It was certainly the proper decision by appointed Senator Husted.
But two key Republican politicians are supporting the beleaguered gubernatorial candidate: Vice President Vance and President Trump. I’m not surprised that Vance would make a wrong choice, as he seems to have a tin ear when it comes to politics; and he was selected by President Trump for this position, and Trump rarely, if ever, selects anyone more talented than himself. However, Trump himself usually is more canny when it comes to political currents. However, he also must retain the votes of MAGA members, and …The MAGA faithful, including Donald Trump Jr., have given an approving signal boost to Ramaswamy’s ad, which began hitting the airwaves Tuesday, across social media.
His decision to support Ramaswamy risks the votes of independents, which Republicans must have in most districts in order to win their contests. Those votes were, for the most part, already in doubt; this
may push them irretrievably over the edge. They may even be accompanied by moderate Republicans who’d rather vote for reasonable Democrats than extremist Republicans. For more on this topic,
Belle of the Ranch has an amusing take.
In other Ohio news, the cryptocurrency industry finds former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is a hard bug to squash:A super PAC funded by the cryptocurrency industry is dumping an additional $9 million into an effort to block Sherrod Brown from recapturing an Ohio Senate seat, raising the group’s total spending in the race above $55 million. [Politico]
Former Senator Brown (D) ran the Senate Banking Committee when he wasn’t former, and the PAC doesn’t want to see him in charge of regulating the banking industry again.
In numerical news, Brown retains his lead:A Fox News survey of likely Ohio voters finds Brown leads Husted, 52% to 47%.
Brown’s advantage is anchored by his stronger personal standing, with his favorability rating 2 points above water (50% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Husted’s rating sits 13 points underwater (42% favorable, 55% unfavorable). [Fox News]
- Nebraska is also home to the hunting grounds of the cryptocurrency industry:
The crypto PAC also disclosed Wednesday that it is upping its efforts to help Senate Republicans in Nebraska, where it is spending to oppose independent candidate Dan Osborn and help GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts. The PAC disclosed $4.1 million of additional spending against Osborn Wednesday, bringing its total in the contest to $10.8 million. [Politico]
Money has always been a part of American politics, but the key difference between cryptocurrency and other special interests seeking support in Washington is that cryptocurrency has persuaded a significant
number of institutions that they are, well, money.
The rest are just industries. - If Senator Dan Sullivan (R) of Alaska loses his re-election bid, the Trump
Administration is threatening
to blame … Dan Sullivan. And sue to seat Dan Sullivan rather than whoever legitimately wins the seat.
Quite the insult to the Alaska citizens who the President appears to think are incapable of distinguishing one Dan Sullivan from another. - In Maine Fox News (using Beacon
Research/Shaw & Co. Research, A- with a pronounced Democratic lean) has Senator Collins (R) as well as Democratic challenger Troy Jackson (D) at 49%.
In other news, former Senator Joe Manchin (R-WV) thinks Senator Collins (R) should change that (R) to an (I). The way I see it, she’s had a goodly amount of time to do so, and has not availed herself of the opportunity. I don’t think she will unless the Party becomes quite toxic. - If my reader wonders how GOP candidates deal with a Trump political rally in their state, this CBS News item reports Rep Hinson’s (R) strategy for managing Trump during his visit to Sioux City, Iowa. Incidentally, I’ve visited Sioux City many a time, but it’s been a decade since my last. I hope their urban renewal effort has been successful.
- In New Hampshire a new St. Anselm poll (A/B with a slight Republican lean) gives the lead to Rep Pappas (D), 50% – 43%, over former Senator John Sununu (R), with a credibility interval, similar to MoE, of ±2.4 points. Interestingly, neither seems liked:
… both have net-negative favorability ratings. Pappas is viewed favorably by 41% of respondents and unfavorably by 56%, while Sununu’s ratings stand at 40% favorable and 56% unfavorable, reflecting the broader challenges facing both candidates.
Is it provincialism or with reason beyond His allegiance is to the other side!?
- President Trump is rallying in Mississippi on Monday. This may mean rumors of a major upset in same may be accurate, since Mississippi should be safely Republican. I like Democratic candidate Scott Colom’s reaction:
“[Senator Hyde-Smith’s (R)] scared to answer why she voted to cut health care, why she betrayed our farmers, and why she blocked the release of the Epstein files,” Colom said. “If she won’t answer for any of that, I challenge Donald Trump to a debate. Mississippians deserve to know why they are being betrayed.” [Mississippi Today]
Or perhaps not. Wedgewood Polls, according to the Magnolia Tribune, … admitted its polling was fabricated in a stunt “to demonstrate the vulnerabilities, lack of oversight,
and overall low barrier to entry in the modern political polling industry.” A Twitter/X link was provided, but the page was missing.
Hmmmmm. I’m really looking forward to the Mississippi results, just to see which party may be guilty of mendacity. - Finally, if you’re a Minnesota voter who’s heard that Lt Gov Flanagan lied about her membership in Phi Beta Kappa, MPR is here to set you straight. Rasmussen Reports (B+) gives Flanagan (D) a 48% – 45% lead over Tafoya (R), 7% undecided, MoE of 3 points.
VERY FIN
I decided to skip InsiderAdvantage in this Update because I found my source, 270ToWin, had just posted a collection of polls from them that I had already sourced. I’ve also skipped polls from Verasight because Silver Bulletin has no knowledge of them; ditto TPOR.
