Unsightly Mental Blemishes

Perhaps the news is slowing. Perhaps I’m squinting.

• 

  Once again, it’s Scylla and Charybdis, last used here!

  Erick Erickson, in the face of fourth-rate – or worse! – Republican candidates, remains confident of success in a couple of weeks. Why? In an email that doesn’t appear to be on his blog: Oregon Democrats are panicking as Nancy Pelosi’s campaign team has pulled money from historically blue house seats because the Republicans are so far ahead. If true, that has to be of concern for those voters who find the candidates behind which Erickson stands to be of an enormously substandard variety. But of more interest from him is this post, which can be read, with only a few changes, as a condemnation of both parties for their absolutist elements. For the Democrats, their transgenderism stance, seemingly unconscious of the societal directive that parents guide and raise children, and not succumb to their every demand, is just one of his criticisms; while, Erickson completely unconscious of it, the absolutism of anti-abortion stands forth as a crippling intellectual failure for the Republicans. In a sense, these two positions are Scylla and Charybdis, a metaphor I’ve used before, the terrifying sea monsters between which mariners must sail, and independent voters are heading for that deadly whirlpool wherein they can pick a Republican Party that abandoned the principles of liberal democracy a decade or more ago, or a Democratic Party that has become increasingly arrogant and certain of itself, and flouted liberal democracy itself when it promoted transgenderism as the law of the land sans discussion. But if Erickson is right, then there’s the question of even those he might assume are his allies are instead abandoning him; see the next two news items.

• The Tulsa World, which one would assume is reflective of its city and state of Oklahoma, and is thus traditionally a conservative rag, has issued an endorsement for the special election to fill Senator Inhofe’s (R) seat after his planned January ’23 resignation. The endorsement is not for Republican candidate Rep Markwayne Mullin, but, surprisingly, the Democratic candidate, former Rep Kendra Horn. Will this move the needle in Oklahoma? Probably not. But it remains a noteworthy move, remarkable in that it may alienate a number of subscribers. Notable: Her congressional stint gives Oklahomans a glimpse of what Oklahoma lawmakers of the past looked like. They were pragmatic legislators who looked after their state and found ways to get things done rather than cater to the fringes of their own parties. Mullin’s frantic attempts to get the former President’s attention and endorsement were, in the end, embarrassing, and indicative of a candidate willing to owe his political career to an ineffective, possibly even worse than that, President, rather than make his own reputation and way.
• There may be no polls for the Kentucky race between Senator Paul (R) and challenger Charles Booker (D), but we do now have an endorsement. The Lexington Herald-Leader has endorsed the Democrat, Booker, rather than the incumbent, a move virtually unheard of for respectably sized newspapers, and the Herald-Leader is the second largest (well, back in 1999) in Kentucky. Here’s the link, but it’s behind a paywall, so I didn’t give it a read. Regardless, disgust with Senator Paul’s (R) behavior is apparently spreading. Not that I expect an upset in Kentucky, but it’s a nice thought – I don’t much care for Paul’s behaviors, either.
• Unsurprisingly, challenger Natalie James (D) is not getting any attraction traction against Senator Boozman (R). The Arkansas Senator has a 52% – 32% lead over James, according to Talk Business & Politics, a pollster unknown to FiveThirtyEight. Last month the lead, measured by the same pollster, was just more than 13 points, and Boozman only had a 43.5% share of the survey answers. He’s now over the 50% mark, giving James a real challenge. For the record, in 2016 Boozman won by 23 points, so he’s not been notably damaged by the general fourth rate nature of the Republicans this cycle.
• Florida Atlantic University, an A/B pollster, gives Florida Senator Rubio (R) a 47.7% to 42% lead over challenger Rep Demings (D). While it may remain encouraging that Rubio is failing to find his way over the 50% mark, Demings remains in a challenging position herself, despite her superior credentials. The margin of error is ± 3.65 points.
• GOP-linked Insider Advantage, B rated, gives Nevada challenger Adam Laxalt (R) a 48.2% to 46.3% lead over Senator Cortez Masto (D).
• Insider Advantage also rates the Pennsylvania race as “neck and neck” at 46% apiece to Fetterman and Oz.
• Remember my report of a news item about Ukrainians alienated by Republican anti-Ukrainian statements? This may impact the Ohio races, according to WaPo, as they confirm the earlier report. Pissing off Ukrainians, whether over there or over here, would seem to be a very bad practice.
• A Seattle Times survey has Washington Senator Murray (D) leading challenger and moderate Tiffany Smiley (R), 49% – 41%. Murray is not over the 50% hurdle, which should be concerning for her, but Smiley continues to carry the burden of a Washington Republican Party loaded with extremists.

The previous edition, scorned by many, is here.

There’s little doubt that the Democrats and the left – two different entities – have been using apocalyptic messaging concerning the upcoming mid-term elections. So, of course, this morning I find out that inflation has become the death of democracy, according to Erick Erickson:

Whether the crisis of the third century, the French revolution, the Russian revolution, or the rise of Hitler, inflation tends to destabilize economies and governments. Democrats have been so focused on Republicans as a threat to democracy that they themselves have become the very threat. Democrats have caused inflation, caused economic deterioration, and now voters are going to sweep them out of power even as Democrats claim the GOP is a threat. Their rhetoric and policies are profoundly destabilizing and voters are about to hold them accountable.

The balance of Erickson’s argument is a radio polemic, to which I did not listen.

Sadly, at least for Erickson, we’re not seeing nation-killing inflation. It’s up a little bit while the Democrats, once again, clean up after the Republicans and their economic mess.

We’re not, for that matter, seeing organized, armed Democratic revolutionaries storming the Capitol, chanting for the deaths of top elected political leaders. In fact, the Democrats are the political conservatives in this scenario. They are not promoting a coup, they are not dissembling when asked about accepting election results – they say, Yes, I will accept the results. The worst that they can be accused of is their calling for the end of gerrymandering, and the inflation of the number of seats in SCOTUS.

Can monetary inflation kill a governmental system? Sure. It was a primary culprit in the death of the Wiemar Republic – but that inflation was not the result of foolishness on the part of the German government, but the misguided Treaty of Versailles and its mandate of reparations for World War I, which in turn was the result of  arrogance on the parts of, oh, let’s just say many governments of the nations of Europe and parts of Asia.

And their inflation was mind-boggling. Not this petty annual 8% that we’re seeing now. Yes, it’s annoying. There may even be lessons concerning unjust wages finally correcting to levels better for society present in that inflation. That is what we should probably be discussing.

But Erickson is off on his moral equivalence crusade, ever trying to balance January 6th insurrection – which, to be fair, drew a disgusted call from him to shoot the insurrectionists – with the horrors of the left. It’s hard to take him and his right-wing colleagues, who I notice tend to bray in unison, seriously.

So don’t.

Banging on the door, screaming to be let. In other news:

• In terms of general applicability to the Democratic case, Biden’s move to pardon non-violent marijuana possession offenses has proven to be quite popular. Will voters connect traditional Republican opposition with their election choices? Or will unexpected Republican silence on Biden’s announcement be a successful tactic?
• Apparently Senator Lee (R) of Utah is in serious trouble, as Erick Erickson is pulling out the big guns of Guilt and Shame to goad Senator Romney (R) into endorsing Lee, if he can. I just don’t think Erickson understands the situation because he’s embedded in it. What passes for the Republican Party these days, in large part, is repugnant not only to the left, but to the independents and moderate Republicans as well. Between the January 6th Insurrection and Dobbs, it’s hard to see how Republicans fit into an American way of life where we collectively choose our leaders, when they’re busy making winning paramount, along with fetishizing money, and engaging in absolutism that endangers pregnant women and anyone who knows the easily enraged with a gun. Trump childishly humiliated Romney, Lee is a close ally of Trump, and so why is it hard to understand that Romney would rather see Lee, a man who doesn’t even think Democracy is important, lose to McMullin under the appearance that Lee is not a defender of the Republic?
• No doubt you’ve heard, but in case you haven’t, early voting is bounding right along, way ahead of the 2018 and even 2020 figures, where available. From CNBC:
  

  Turnout from Georgia’s first day of early voting set a new state record for a midterm election, nearly doubling the figure from the same time period in the previous midterms, state election officials said Tuesday. … More than 131,000 Georgia voters cast ballots since early voting began Monday, according to the office of Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. The figure represents an 85% boost over the 2018 midterms, when nearly 71,000 early votes were cast on Day One, the office said.

  Georgia, of course, is the venue for the Warnock / Walker contest, so some the jump is attributable to that. Is it otherwise significant? Erick Erickson, exhibiting mainstream media paranoia, doesn’t think so: Some of you are falling for the doom scenarios that Democrats are turning out in record numbers in early voting so you might as well give up. Don’t fall into that mindset. It was obvious that would be a last-minute media narrative concocted by the Democrats and advanced by a partisan political press. Because voters are easy to discourage? No, they’re hard to encourage, but once they decide they’re voting, they’re voting. That’s one of the lessons of Kansas, earlier this year. The pro-choice voters were faced with polls predicting the proposed state Constitutional amendment that would enable the Legislature to strip them of their abortion rights would win. That didn’t stop the pro-choice voters, who rejected the proposal by 18 points.

• Continuing an inadvertent pundit review, lefty documentarian Michael Moore, who predicted the shocking Trump victory, is predicting a blue tsunami this year.
• The recently released Times/Siena poll for the generic Congressional ballot has shocked many pundits, as it shows a 32 point shift among independent women voters in a month. Kerry Eleveld @ Daily Kos thinks it’s an outlier and should be ignored.
• In Colorado, Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group, B/C rated, shows Senator Bennet (D) leading challenger Joe O’Dea by 11 points, with a margin of error of ± 3.5 points. That seems to be all we get. That’s a bigger lead than other Bennet / O’Dea polls have shown, so maybe discount that number a bit. Notable remark found in the Denver Post: O’Dea spokesman Kyle Kohli said Bennet’s campaign and his allies had spent tens of millions to beat O’Dea, who he said had Bennet “on the ropes.” I gotta wonder just big a loss qualifies as on the ropes.
• A rated Landmark Communications‘ latest poll gives Senator Warnock (D) of Georgia a 46.1% to 46% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). It’s disappointing to think a gibberish spewing candidate is even seriously considered by the electorate.
• CBS News/YouGov, the latter B+ rated, rate Nevada as a toss up, as each garners a 48% share in their latest poll.
• A rated SurveyUSA gives Senator Schumer (D) a 52% to 38% lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R). Traction is unavailable in New York, it seems, as those numbers are comparable to previous polls.
• Cheri Beasley’s slipping, but the pollster is GOP-linked Trafalgar, so their assessment of North Carolina’s Senate race at Rep Budd (R) 48.4% to Beasley’s (D) 44.2% might need a discount. Or not. In three weeks we’ll find out.
• GOP aligned Cygnal, B+ rated, gives J. D. Vance (R) a 47% – 43% lead over Rep Tim Ryan (D) in Ohio.
• For those voters worried about Pennsylvania Lt. Governor Fetterman’s (D) health, his doctor says don’t.
• Trafalgar sees the Arizona race as a 1 point affair of 47.4% for Kelly (D), 46.4% for challenger Masters (R). Seeing as OH Predictive Insights had Kelly holding a thirteen point lead, I suspect there’s a bit of a let-down.

The last time they let is here.

Put your lip between your teeth and bite down, it’ll make this go by much, much slower. In other news:

• B/C rated East Carolina University gives Rep Budd (R) a 50% to 44% over former state Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley (D) in North Carolina with a margin of error Credibility Interval of ± 3.8 points. Pick the size of the grain of salt you prefer. If you prefer a different spice, unknown pollster Carolina Forward is giving Rep Budd a dead heat 46% – 45% lead, the balance of those surveyed undecided. Notable: Independents are split almost neatly in half, with just a 2-point advantage towards Budd and 16% remaining undecided[.] If independents continue to break towards the Democrats, then Beasley may win an upset victory. But she still has to make that case.
• Is Rep Ryan (D) seeing Ohio slip away, or is Suffolk University just slipping? The B+ rated pollster is now giving J. D. Vance (R) a 47% – 45% lead in Ohio, with a margin of error of ± 4.4 points.
• FabrizioWard/Impact Research’s latest poll for the AARP finds New Hampshire Senator Hassan (D) maintaining a comfortable 52% – 45% lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), who must be eyeing that 50% barrier and wondering how to convince some of Hassan’s voters to change their minds. I think both pollsters are B/C rated. Or is it three firms? A read of the report is ambiguous.
• In New York, A- rated Quinnipiac University Poll has Senator Schumer (D) with a 54% – 42% lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R). This is, again, a drop for Senator Schumer, but the rate of decline is itself declining, and he would seem to have little to worry about.
• B/C rated Amber Integrated weighs in on the reelection effort of Senator Lankford (R) in Oklahoma, giving him a 16 point advantage over challenger Madison Horn (D). Yeah, that’s all we get. The latest Sooner Poll has Lankford by 12 points, but over 50%. While 16 points is more than comfortable, Lankford’s victory in 2016 was by 43+ points, suggesting either Lankford and the Republicans are too extreme, or Lankford is too moderate for many Republicans, or both. Yes, that is possible.
• In the same survey as above, Amber Integrated is giving Rep Mullin (R) a 13 point lead of former Rep Kendra Horn (D) in the special election to fill Oklahoma Senator Inhofe’s soon-to-be empty seat in the Senate, as he is retiring in mid-term. Former Rep Horn had reduced Mullin’s lead to 9 points in the latest Sooner Poll, so she must be a bit disappointed in his poll. While it’s worth noting that Inhofe’s final victory was by 30+ points, comparing relative newcomer Mullin’s lead to that victory margin hardly seems appropriate. Still, a drop of 17 points does mean disappointment in the Republicans, although from which direction isn’t clear. The survey has a ± 4.4 point margin of error.
• Any attempts to portray myself as competent at this job should be disregarded, as just moments ago I realized I have lost track of the Missouri race. Again. Not that it’s an exciting race: AG Schmitt (R) still leads nurse & heiress Trudy Busch Valentine (D) by 11 points, 49% – 38%, according to the latest (late September) poll from Emerson College. That gap is exactly the same in the four polls recorded by RealClearPolitics, regardless of the pollster. This is actually a larger gap than the margin of victory for the current occupant of the seat, retiring Senator Blunt (R), had in 2016, which was less than 3 points. Eleven points is substantially larger. I wonder if the state shifted right or if the independents are finding Valentine to be repugnant for some reason. On the other hand, Blunt won by nearly 14 points in 2010, so perhaps 2016 is more a commentary on Blunt’s extremism.
• Apparently, the Iowa survey by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register, showing challenger Admiral (ret.) Franken (D) down by three points, rather than Senator Grassley’s (R) normal margin of victory of around 33 points, hit a nerve out in pundit land. What struck me was WaPo’s resident data analyst cum political columnist trying to explain it away, and, I think, failing. I briefly wrote about what David Byler missed here.

The surprised! update from last time is here.

Spaceweather.com has a report on an event that happened maybe 2.4 billion years ago – and just affected us a few days ago:

Credit: NASA/Swift/A. Beardmore (University of Leicester)

Oct. 17, 2022: Astronomers have never seen anything quite like it. On Oct. 9, 2022, Earth-orbiting satellites detected the strongest gamma-ray burst (GRB) in modern history: GRB221009A. How strong was it? It caused electrical currents to flow through the surface of our planet.

Yeow! And then that age thing:

Researchers have since pinpointed the burst. It came from a dusty galaxy 2.4 billion light years away, almost certainly triggered by a supernova explosion giving birth to a black hole. This is actually the closest GRB ever recorded, thus accounting for its extreme intensity.

I see that, by contrast, NASA is estimating 1.9 billion light years. And gamma rays are potentially dangerous, as the Wikipedia page notes. I wonder how much damage we’d sustain if that gamma ray burst had happened within our home galaxy, the Milky Way.

A day or two ago in my Senate Campaign Updates I noted the shocking survey from A+ rated Selzer & Co showing 89 year old Senator Grassley (R-IA) with only a three point lead over challenger Vice-Admiral Mike Franken (D) in his reelection race. Today, I see David Byler of WaPo doesn’t think Grassley needs to be worrying:

In math, there’s a procedure called the “sanity check” in which, essentially, you zoom out and see whether the calculations you’re doing align with your common sense.

We can do a similar gut check on the Iowa race by looking at polls from races in other states.

In national House polls, the parties are roughly evenly matched. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate has Democrats leading Republicans by less than a point, and the RealClearPolitics average has the GOP barely ahead. In Senate polls, the picture is similar: The same purple states that were competitive in 2022 are competitive again.

But there’s an even better sanity check available here, a race wherein the same pollster and almost certainly the same polled citizens are tested in a different way. That’s the Iowa Governor’s race. Let’s take Byler’s assumption that Iowa is reliably conservative, an assumption that is itself somewhat dubious. If true, then we should assume that a flawed Selzer survey should show similar results.

Does it?

No. Incumbent Governor Reynolds, another Republican, has a 17 point lead.

This suggests that the survey has a very good chance of properly representing the political makeup of Iowa. Byler tried to justify his position by gesturing to other states, to other parts of the country, but that approach to political analysis is flawed, because politics is local, local, local. Yes, polarization has gotten worse, but politics is often focused, quite properly, on the particular. Flawed candidates in other parts of the country are thought to be in trouble, and that may be one of the few constants across the country: from Perdue to Loeffler to Walker to Majewski in Ohio, if you’re flawed, inarguably flawed, your constituents may decide to vote for someone else, or no one at all. Indeed, one might observe that the toxic team politics of the GOP is an attempt to mask off incompetency in favor of blind loyalties.

So don’t count Franken out. The counting of the votes in Iowa may be a nail biting affair; that’s what the survey’s Reynold’s result has to say about the Senate race.

I figure, after Senator Lee’s (R) likely upset in Utah, Senator Grassley is the most likely unexpected disaster.

As the current Republican Party continues to burn, the question of what becomes the conservative alternative – the real alternative, not this collection of fourth raters – to the Democrats?

Current Republican Senate candidate in Colorado, Joe O’Dea, isn’t given much of a chance of winning in November, and I’d prefer Senator Bennet (D) win anyways. But this CNN/Politics report may point to his political future:

Joe O’Dea, the Republican nominee for US Senate from Colorado, fired back at Donald Trump on Monday after the former President slammed him as a “RINO” and suggested Trump’s supporters wouldn’t vote for a “stupid” person like O’Dea.

In a statement to CNN, O’Dea, the CEO of a Colorado construction company, didn’t walk away from the criticism he’s been leveling at Trump, including on Sunday when he told CNN’s Dana Bash on “State of the Union” that he would “actively” campaign against Trump and for other GOP candidates if the former President runs again. O’Dea also told Bash that Trump should have done more to prevent the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.

“I’m a construction guy, not a politician,” O’Dea said in his statement to CNN. “President Trump is entitled to his opinion but I’m my own man and I’ll call it like I see it. Another Biden, Trump election will tear this country apart. DeSantis, Scott, Pompeo or Haley would be better choices. These elections should be focused on Joe Biden’s failures – supercharged inflation, a broken border, rampant crime, a war on American energy – not a rehash of 2020. America needs to move forward.”

Sure, he’s wrong on several of those statements. Even crime isn’t rampant compared to other decades, and certainly Republicans of any stripe won’t be considered adults until they reconsider their stance on 2nd Amendment absolutism.

But these things come in steps, not gallumphs, and O’Dea is rejecting Trump, rejecting, by implication, the paradigm of the authoritarian leader who does what they wish, regardless of the law. Hopefully, he’ll continue down this path, rejecting the election denial disaster, affirming accepting the results of an election. As a non-politician, he has a better chance than most in the Republican Party of accomplishing these goals.

And if he does so? He and those like him may form the foundation of a future conservative party, the sort of party that respects liberal democratic tenets, and can balance a Democratic Party that desperately needs balancing by an articulate adversary.

This is like a spoonful of medicine, isn’t it? Just don’t drool, eh?

• In a surprising, at least to me, result, Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, B/C rated, reports Senator Blumenthal (D) of Connecticut leads challenger Leora Levy (R) by only five points, 49% – 44%. Notable remark from Professor Steven Moore of Wesleyan University: Clearly, the economy is the thing that people care about and it’s the thing they’re noticing. I can’t help but notice that the disruption is a result of the Democrats having to clean up after the Republicans’ blunders in economy management throughout the former President’s single term. Much like they did after both Bush I and Bush II. It should not be a surprise that in addition to Republican incompetence, in the wake of Putin’s War and supply line disruptions caused by the pandemic, inflation is up. I might point out that the job situation is currently excellent, if you’re a worker and not an employer.
• Another surprise for me: The Des Moines Register poll shows Senator Grassley (R) of Iowa, the dude within kissing distance of 90, leads challenger Admiral Franken (ret.) (D), but only by 3 points, 46% – 43%, with a margin of error of ± 3.5 points – technically, a dead heat. By comparison, the poll previous to this, run by A- rated Emerson College last week, gave Senator Grassley a 49% – 38%, 11 point lead. So, does the local rag know more about Iowa than Emerson College? Des Moines Register isn’t even listed on FiveThirtyEight … oh, wait, down here the Des Moines Register says the poll was run by Selzer & Co. Never heard of them. Probably not listed, either … oh, here they are. A+ rated. Sheeeit. Mumble! So what’s going on? Let me speculate:
  

  ---

  In mid-late September, a news story surfaced in which Franken was accused of sexual assault way back in March. Des Moines police refused to file charges, calling the accusation unfounded. The Emerson College poll came a few days after that, and perhaps the news, even with Franken’s denial and the backing of the Des Moines police, led some voters to pick Grassley over Franken.

  ---

  Then the one and only debate between Grassley and Franken was held on October 6th, and the Selzer & Co poll occurred three days later. If Grassley’s performance in the debate was poor, or reminded voters that his positions are not consonant with their positions, then they may have swung back to Franken. Here’s a PolitiFact article fact-checking the debate.

  That’s just guesses, though. Iowa goes back on the Could be an upset list.

• The surprises keep coming: Hill Research, B/C rated, performed a survey in Utah recently and found challenger Evan McMullin (I) leading Senator Lee (R), and in two different metrics. First, if measuring without “leaners,” the lead is 46% – 42%. Second, if “leaners” are added to totals, then the lead is 49% – 43%. A B/C rating is not an A+ rating, so this poll must be taken with a medium sized grain of salt, and the numbers are at variance with other recent polls, including some cited below. However, they are congruent with Senator Lee’s begging Utah colleague Senator Romney (R) to endorse him. Much like Iowa, Utah is on the Could be an upset list.
• Erick Erickson is appalled that Senator Warnock of Georgia doesn’t support the name Braves, as in the Major League Baseball team based in Atlanta, claiming the American Indian tribes do support that use of this American Indian associated term. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t, I’ve never heard; I believe they don’t support the “chop” used by fans to be part of the team, so why would they support the use of a name associated with them? But if the tribes do support the use of the name, and the left insists it be changed, then there’s a case to be made for a clear denial of self-agency by the left to the tribes. And that’d be fairly patronizing, no? But, as I said, I don’t know that the tribes have said it’s OK, and I don’t trust Erickson’s word on the matter.
• Enough with the surprises! GOP-aligned Trafalgar gives J. D. Vance (R) a 47.3% – 43.8% lead over Rep Ryan (D) in Ohio, with a margin of error of ± 2.9 points. This is seriously out of step with other polls.
• The Deseret News has published an article on the Utah race between Senator Mike Lee (R), a close Trump ally, and challenger Evan McMullin (I), Democrat-endorsed, which includes this paragraph:
  

  Lee’s internal polling shows him up 18 points, according to his campaign. McMullin’s internal poll shows him ahead by one.

  Someone’s in for a shock come November, but I’m not sure who. The last poll published by Deseret News gave Lee a four point lead, but with a large undecided segment, which arguably favors McMullin. Also, if you’re not a linear reader, then go back up above and see the Utah news about a poll by Hill Research.

That last update, already out of date, was a real mouthful.

On an administrative note, getting this blogging platform to retain paragraph breaks in the midst of “ul” lists is problematic, but I still apologize for extra-long, mixed topic paragraphs. Just because it’s the right thing to do.

Readers may recall the Tornado Cash platform, and an odd defense of it posted by industry insiders. Now Professor Henry Farrell and security guru Bruce Schneier have a response under the entertaining title “Tornado Cash Is Not Free Speech. It’s a Golem” on Lawfare:

We think that the most useful way to understand the speech issues involved with regulating Tornado Cash and other decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) is through an analogy: the golem. There are many versions of the Jewish golem legend, but in most of them, a person-like clay statue comes to life after someone writes the word “truth” in Hebrew on its forehead, and eventually starts doing terrible things. The golem stops only when a rabbi erases one of those letters, turning “truth” into the Hebrew word for “death,” and the golem ceases to function.

The analogy between DAOs and golems is quite precise, and has important consequences for the relationship between free speech and code. Ultimately, just as the golem needed the intervention of a rabbi to stop wreaking havoc on the world, so too do DAOs need to be subject to regulation.

It’s a curious statement, and the article makes for fascinating reading. Leaning into a ruling made in 1996 …

… U.S. District Judge Marilyn Hall Patel ruled that computer code is a language, just like German or French, and that coded programs deserve First Amendment protection. That such code is also functional, instructing a computer to do something, was irrelevant to its expressive capabilities, according to Patel’s ruling. However, both a concurring and dissenting opinion argued that computer code also has the “functional purpose of controlling computers and, in that regard, does not command protection under the First Amendment.”

Which I suspect is in need of updating, as at least this informal description suggests a poor understanding of the function of natural languages vs computer languages, the latter of which are little more than enhanced instruction sets that do not involve free will. In an odd way, this ties in with a complaint of mine a ways back that programmers tend to freely analogize with real world constructs, and sometimes that’s inappropriate. Natural languages’ primary usage is communication with other humans and, potentially, other sentient beings; not so computer languages. Back on point, though:

This disagreement highlights the awkward distinction between ordinary language and computer code. Language does not change the world, except insofar as it persuades, informs, or compels other people. Code, however, is a language where words have inherent power. Type the appropriate instructions and the computer will implement them without hesitation, second-guessing, or independence of will. They are like the words inscribed on a golem’s forehead (or the written instructions that, in some versions of the folklore, are placed in its mouth). The golem has no choice, because it is incapable of making choices. The words are code, and the golem is no different from a computer.

Which is a more artfully put criticism than mine, but essentially the same. The balance of the article’s coverage of Tornado Cash is both frightening and horrific; I can’t shake the feeling that the hidden attitude is inarticulate defiance.

In other crypto news, Coinbase is being sued. Who will win?

Sequelae:

How to say it: Sequelae (see-quell-lay).

What it means: Conditions or diseases that follow another.

Where it comes from: From Latin sequela meaning “sequel.” [verywell health]

Noted in “‘We are in trouble’: Study raises alarm about impacts of long covid,” Frances Stead Sellers, WaPo:

“It has always been the case that those who are sicker are more likely to have long-term sequelae,” [David Putrino, director of rehabilitation innovation for the Mount Sinai Health System in New York] said. “What is frightening is that the mild cases by far outnumber the severe, so even a small percentage of mild cases going on to develop long-term sequelae is a massive public health concern.”

The updates are thick and fast. Like mud off a bicycle tire.

• Wisconsin has had a couple of polls of late. Marquette Law School Poll, A/B rated, gives Senator Johnson (R) a 52% – 46% advantage over Lt. Governor and challenger Mandela Barnes (D), a quite large six point gap. B/C rated Clarity Campaign Labs has a substantially different finding of a one point lead for challenger Barnes, 48% – 47%, with a margin of error of ± 3.3 points, aka a statistical dead heat. On the news front, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the largest newspaper in Wisconsin, has condemned the incumbent, Senator Johnson (R), in no uncertain terms: He’s an election falsifier who recklessly promoted lies about the 2020 presidential race long after it was clear Donald Trump lost. He’s a science fabulist who suggested, without evidence, that the COVID-19 vaccines could make the pandemic worse and who repeatedly touted unproven remedies for the disease — from Ivermectin to mouthwash. They want to see the back of Johnson’s head, the sooner the better, and for the same reasons everyone would like to see him gone. To my mind, he doesn’t know how to conduct himself as a Senator and responsible adult. Who can possibly vote for him?
• Along with polls, Nevada gets to have, well, what is it called? Scandal? Gossip? Whatever it is, this intro paragraph in The Nevada Independent summarizes it nicely: Fourteen members of Republican Senate candidate and former Attorney General Adam Laxalt’s family announced Wednesday that they would collectively endorse his Democratic opponent, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, in the heated race for Nevada’s U.S. Senate seat. … “We believe that Catherine possesses a set of qualities that clearly speak of what we like to call ‘Nevada grit,’” the letter said, adding that “no further comments will be made, as we believe this letter speaks for itself.” They won’t actually spit on his shoes, since he is family, but if your own relations would rather see your opponent win than you, perhaps it’s time to reconsider your life philosophy. But this is not an unique event; six of current Arizona Representative Paul Gosar’s (R) siblings have recommended against votes for him. Gosar is among the most extremist of the Republicans in Congress.But there’s more! Kerry Eleveld on Daily Kos comments on, inter alia, Nevada’s polling difficulties:
  

  But Nevada is also notoriously difficult to poll, partially due to the concentration of Latino voters who are just as notoriously difficult to poll. In fact, during the 2010 midterms, then-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was famously left for dead by pollsters, who anticipated little to no Latino participation would lead to a drubbing by GOP insurgent candidate Sharron Angle. Instead, Latino voters turned out at a record rate of 16% (despite accounting for just 12% of the state’s registered voters at the time), propelling Reid to a 6-point victory.

  The mention of the late Senator Reid (D) makes this a bit dated, but possibly still relevant. Eleveld is convinced that a recent Trump rally in Nevada will rekindle Senator Masto’s supporters’ willingness to vote, and may well be the reason she wins in November, if that does happen. She only has a little time left.

• Emerson College gives Ohio Republican J. D. Vance a 1 point advantage over Rep Ryan (D). Notable: Men are breaking for the Republican candidate and women are breaking for the Democratic candidate in the US Senate Election; men for Vance over Ryan 53% to 40%, while women for Ryan over Vance 49% to 39%. A higher share of women are undecided at 11%, compared to 6% of men. Gonna be close, it sounds, but if the undecided counts are to be believed, Ryan may pull this one out.
• The former President will have to remain unhappy with South Dakota, as the latest SDSU Poll shows Senator Thune (R) now across the 50% threshold with a 53% – 28% lead. Challenger Brian Bengs (D) backslides three points, just to add to the injury – I think those three points were attached to separate toes on his left foot when they departed for Senator Thune. It’d be the upset of the election cycle if Bengs pulls this one out of witches’ pot. On another note, for those of us interested in the gubernatorial contest, Governor Noem’s (R) reelection lead has improved a point to 45% – 41% over Jamie Smith (D). As the margin of error is ± 4 points, technically it’s still a dead heat, but it appears that Noem is the way to bet. But it’s hard to ignore the voter dissatisfaction in conservative South Dakota with the governor.
• I may have been premature believing voters’ worries over Pennsylvania Lt Governor and Senate candidate Fetterman’s (D) health, by which I mean the stroke he suffered just a day or two before PA Primary Day, were and are minor, or the far-right is desperate to change a few minds. Erick Erickson’s post here illustrates the general conservative tactic of spreading worries, necessary or not, concerning Fetterman’s recovery from his stroke; it also contains a clip of the  NBC News interview with Fetterman, illustrating his problems processing sounds. Erickson also, not so subtly, strokes the fires of tribalism by framing the entire issue as Us vs Them, rather than an honest analysis of the issue. Catch it? On the other side, WaPo contributes an article on the characteristics of recovering from a stroke, and how Fetterman’s recovery is typical and does not involve damage to his judgment, only to auditory processing; the latter can be circumvented using closed captioning by a specialist in such things. Erickson is adamant that “the left” is furious that “the right” knows about Fetterman’s problems, a fury that hasn’t washed over me, yet. Maybe I don’t read the right rags^[1]. Then there’s the tribalism, Erickson’s forever trying to keep his side together.But this is an honest conundrum for the Fetterman-leaning, responsible voter, because we’re supposed to select the person we believe will best represent our State, whether it’s in the House or the Senate. To that voter, I would say the following. First, his main opponent, Dr. Oz Mehmet (R), is utterly unacceptable. Any long-term member of the skeptics’ community can give you a number of examples of his snake-oil practices as a TV celebrity who happens to be a medical doctor, illustrating his inferior ethics and general unsuitability for a seat in the highest elective body in the land. But electing Fetterman carries a significant risk that he’ll become incapacitated, rather than recover; the timing of his stroke was exceptionally unfortunate for him and the Democrats. So what happens in the event of incapacity? Dr. Oz, by virtue of coming in second in this contest, does not automatically become Senator if Fetterman becomes cognitively disabled. Instead, and I’ll grant that I’m no lawyer, but the general pattern is that the Governor will appoint a replacement Senator and schedule a special election. Some States require the appointed replacement come from the same Party as the one who cannot serve, and, if so, then there’s your answer. If that’s not true, then who’ll be the Governor? At the moment, that’s up in the air, but the election is leaning quite heavily to the Democrat, Josh Shapiro. You’ll have to trust that he wins in November, and that his judgment is good, but that’s not nearly an impossible argument to make. I’d say that if you’d vote Fetterman if his health was good, vote Fetterman now. If he needs to be replaced, the odds are good that his replacement will be someone who shares his ideology, if not his charisma.

  In other Pennsylvania news, Trafalgar’s latest poll gives Fetterman a 47.1% – 44.8% lead over Dr. Oz. Recall that Trafalgar tends to lean conservative, so this lead may be larger than it appears. Or not. It’s hard to say, what with conservative firms doing better in 2020 than neutrals and liberal firms, but the candidate list is positively littered with extremists on the conservative side which may not deserve, in the end, the same compensation as was awarded in 2020 and prior elections, as well as issues that lean towards the liberals on the balance.

• In the expected comedown from the OH Predictive Insights poll, pollster InsiderAdvantage, B rated, gives Arizona Senator Kelly (D) a 46% – 41.6% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R), with Marc Victor (L) at 5%. The margin of error is projected to be ± 4.2 points. The OH Predictive Insights poll had Kelly up by 13 points. In other news, something stronger than rumor has it that Trump minion Peter Thiel will be contributing to the Masters’ campaign soon.
• A new poll from A rated Marist Poll in New York gives Senator and Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D) a 54% – 34% lead over challenger Joe Pinion (R) among registered voters, and a 52% – 39% lead among those voters who are definitely going to vote. Pinion isn’t showing signs of traction.
• GOP-linked pollster Trafalgar, A- rated, has a new poll out on the Georgia Senate race, giving Senator Warnock (D) a 46.3% – 44.8% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). With a margin of error of ± 2.9 points, this is a statistical dead heat, and a far smaller Warnock advantage than that measured by the last poll, a Quinnipiac University Poll effort giving Senator Warnock a 7 point lead with the same margin of error. The differing results reflect, I think, adjustments made by the pollsters for factors they cannot otherwise rid themselves of. Think of the problems NASA had with the Hubble Space Telescope mirror. It’s the same thing, but different.
• Finally, A- rated Public Policy Polling finds a 14 point lead for Senator Duckworth (D) of Illinois, 50% – 36%, over challenger Kathy “only I can beat Duckworth!” Salvi (R). The latter is not making progress and might be best served by preparing an apology letter for her intemperate claim, because she’s not going anywhere.

The last snow squall of news is here.

¹ Some younger readers may not be aware that “rags” is old jargon for newspapers, most of which are fading out as they lose the competition with the Web, with a few notable exceptions such as WaPo, The New York Times, The StarTribune, and a few others. Our societal losses due to this phenomenon is not comprehended by most people who are not journalists, and I’m not a journalist, so I’m not qualified to really tell you what you’ve inadvertently lost, but I’ve talked about it before. And it makes me sad to lose such an apropos bit of jargon, as newspapers often physically incorporate rags in their final form. Another bit of jargon is Ink-stained wretch, which is even more enjoyable.

I smiled at this, and then again. And now I wonder if a small enhancement might stir up trouble. Via kos @ Daily Kos:

Yesterday, the #Russian missiles left huge holes in the middle of our cities. All night long, 🇺🇦services worked to restore the damaged road connections & public services. Step by step, we’ll bring our cities to a peaceful routine.

📸Borys Filatov, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, Getty Images pic.twitter.com/Ho1CuKAu8r

— MFA of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (@MFA_Ukraine) October 11, 2022

Notice the crosswalks and other paint? I think the Ukrainians should develop some way to wear the paint away over the repaired sections. Sounds like fun?

No, this is serious. Say, Russian recon says we blew up this road over here tonight. The following morning, Ukrainian road repair fixes it and puts down the faux worn paint. Someone show someone in charge the worn paint.

And, after a while, Russian recon is no longer trusted. Maybe Putin shoots them. Maybe just fires them and the replacement is incompetent.

Stirring up trouble, just might give you more of an advantage. And read Wasp, an old pulp-era SF novel, by Eric Frank Russell.

Via Professor Richardson, from last night’s televised January 6th hearing, a videotape of Speaker Pelosi being told that then-President Trump is trying to travel to the Capitol:

“I hope he comes, I’m gonna punch him out… I’ve been waiting for this. For trespassing on the Capitol grounds. I’m gonna punch him out, I’m gonna go to jail, and I’m gonna be happy.”

The glaring eye of publicity!

I’d have paid good money to see that. I’ll bet he thought he’d be seen as some sort of savior, and she’d have laid him right out.

I wonder if Pelosi now becomes the leading contender to be “that woman” to conservatives. (You’ll have to imagine the bulging eyes.) Clinton had been, but with her retirement she doesn’t have the public’s attention any longer.

From WaPo:

The delayed ninth episode of the January 6th panel was basically a recap of the incidents of January 6th, the culpability for said criminal incidents, and, based on that copious and sometimes chilling material, the unanimous decision by the panel to subpoena the former President for documentation and personal testifying concerning that day.

Given the number of times various panel suggested he may have engaged in illegal acts, I doubt the former President will agree to appear; he’d rather face a potential contempt of Congress charge, and since that must be approved by Congress, he’ll no doubt hope he can delay it until after the next Congress is sworn in – and the House is controlled by his minions.

So now we wait to see how Trump responds.

Unbelievable stamina in these polka dancers, I gotta say. Oh, we’re talking political races? Not nearly as much fun.

• The next televised January 6th hearing is scheduled for today. There’ll be more than a few candidates wondering if the news will be damaging to them – or their opponents.
• Republicans are tipping their hand that, if they win control of the House, they plan to blow up the government if President Biden doesn’t signoff on their legislation, and this may swing more votes to the Democrats. They must remind voters of the costs to them of a non-functional government. While this is more House than Senate focused, it helps bring into high relief the extreme methods that extremists, given partial power, may employ to achieve their ill-considered goals. Like, say, depriving Ukraine of support in their existential war with Russia.
• Georgia, the most popular State in the Union, features a Quinnipiac University Poll, A- rated, showing Senator Warnock (D) still leading challenger Herschel Walker (R), and by a hefty 52% – 45% gap, with what appears to be a ± 2.9 point margin of error. On the other hand, the most recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Georgia News Collaborative poll gives the Senator only a 46% – 43% lead, within the margin of error of ± 3.1 points. Apropos nothing in particular, if you take Erick Erickson’s denigrative comments concerning the Senator seriously, then the Georgia race may be even more broken than the Pennsylvania race, as Walker’s mendacity and gibberish is surely unworthy of a vote, while Erickson insists on believing that abortion is baby-killing, and therefore Warnock is a fake Christian. Sigh.
• According to Politico, Senator Lee (R) of Utah has asked for the endorsement of fellow Utah Senator Mitt Romney (R), which seems a bit pathetic. He must be seeing his close ally, the former President, going down in flames, and is worried he’ll get caught by his flight scarf as he tries to jump out the cargo hatch of the Trump Airliner. Rumor has it that Romney turned him down, which should be no surprise, given the mutual antipathy of Romney and the former President. Close allies need not apply?
• I understand Senator Kelly (D) and challenger Blake Masters (R) of Arizona recently had a debate. It must have gone poorly for Masters, because OH Predictive Insights, B/C rated, now gives Kelly a shockingly large 46% – 33% lead, and Libertarian (that’d be ‘L’) Marc Victor (L) gains a huge 15% of the vote. I confess to not seeing the debate, of course, so I can only guess that conservative independents, perhaps horrified at Masters’ performance, now favor Victor. Still, like good science, I wait confirmation by independent pollsters. I must say, though, that, in November, if Victor were to manage a second place finish, leaving Masters in third, the schadenfreude cast towards the former President and his minion, Peter Thiel, might overwhelm the magnetic bands protecting the Earth from infernal cosmic rays, killing all of us. But it’d be worth it.
• The first poll of the California Senate race is in, and unsurprisingly SurveyUSA, A rated, gives Senator Padilla (D), appointed to fill VP Harris’ seat when she resigned to join the Executive Branch, a 22 point lead over challenger Mark Meuser (R), 56% – 34%. Not only does Meuser not have much time to erase a tremendous deficit, his opponent is past the 50% mark. He’ll have to change a lot of minds and get all the undecideds. Seems unlikely. Incidentally, this race and poll covers both the special election, for the term lasting until January 3rd, 2023, and the general election, for the term starting January 3rd. A comparison to Harris’ 2016 election would be apples and oranges, as Harris beat another Democrat in the general election.
• Louisiana’s first poll is also in, conducted by A- rated Public Policy Polling, and gives Senator Kennedy (R) 53% of the vote, while in second place is Luke Mixon (D) with 16%. This result, if repeated in November, would permit Senator Kennedy to avoid a runoff, as this is a jungle primary state. Impressive? Kennedy won with slightly more than 60% in 2016, so he’s not improved on previous performance – but unlikely to lose this time around, either. Just to force a runoff, Mixon would have to persuade 4% of the Kennedy portion of the electorate to change their minds, or at least stay home.
• Nevada’s Senator Cortez Masto (D) may be back in the lead, according to B+ rated Suffolk University, 45.6% to 43.6%, ahead of challenger Adam Laxalt (R). Call it a dead heat, maybe even a dry heat. It’s Nevada, after all. But if the next poll, if there is one, shows Masto’s lead growing, it’ll suggest she’s connected to the Hispanic community successfully. That’s an utter necessity for her.
• Remember Democratic-aligned pollster Center Street PAC giving Rep Tim Ryan (D) an improbably large eleven point lead in Ohio? B+ rated Cygnal just gave his opponent, J. D. Vance (R), a two point lead of 46% – 44%. Our signal has improbable amounts of static. Ahem. That was inadvertent, I assure you. Anyways, there is a catch here, much like with Center Street PAC: Cygnal is characterized as a GOP polling firm, by a web site named American Greatness. I suspect the real answer lies somewhere near the middle of that range.
• The latest Sooner Poll, C+ rated, shows Senator Lankford’s (R) lead in Oklahoma over Madison Horn (D) has shrunk to 52% – 40%. In the prior poll, Horn’s portion of the poll was only 35%, while Lankford’s was still 52%, so that’s a 5 point gain, leaving Horn still with quite a mountain to climb. Or will Oklahoma voters be negatively impressed by Lankford’s plan to strip away drug price benefits that were just passed? I think a 12 point lead, including 2 that have to be convinced to leave Lankford, is too hard to do in three weeks or less, but the game isn’t over just yet.
• The Sooner Poll also covered the Senate special election contest in Oklahoma between Rep Mullin (R) and former Rep Kendra Horn (D), and Mullin’s lead has shrunk from 12 points to 9 points, 51-42. Mullin’s number shrank by a point, which is not adequate – five would be better. Can the former Representative pull the upset? I doubt it, I doubt it strongly. But, again, it’s not outside of the realm of possibility.

Here’s the smoking hole in the Earth from the last time I did this. Sorry ’bout that.

Godzilla wipes out Tokyo. Of course. The kaiju have to sign up in advance to do that. In other news:

• In a baffling move, incumbents up for reelection Lankford (R-OK), Rubio (R-FL), and Lee (R-UT) are sponsoring a Senate bill named Protect Drug Innovation Act, which is “To repeal prescription drug price control provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act.” As this part of the Inflation Reduction Act is both popular and beneficial to the elderly segment of the electorate, this seems an unnecessary risk on the part of these Senators. But can Schumer perform a bit of aikido on them? He might grant it discussion and a vote, against their expectation, thus gathering material for their and other Senate races to benefit their opponents. That, however, would require confidence in how members of his own caucus would vote.
• Senator Hassan (D) of New Hampshire continues to hold a lead over challenger Don Bolduc (R), according to A/B rated Saint Anselm College. They give her double the lead that conservative-leaning Trafalgar has accorded her, a lead of six points, with a margin of error of ± 3.3 points. Notable: In a successful tactic sure to be become more widespread in coming cycles, Democratic groups spent millions of dollars to help secure the nominations of explicitly pro-Trump Republican candidates. These nominees now face a general electorate in which 52% of voters have a strongly unfavorable opinion of the former president. Saint Anselm is premature in this conclusion. The fact you got who you wanted doesn’t guarantee victory. In fact, an extremist is more likely to interfere, post-election, in a destructive manner with the inauguration. And some GOP state parties are entirely controlled by extremists who want little to do with GOP moderates, so ensuring the nomination of a moderate may be more productive. This point seems less applicable to Democrat state parties, as lefty extremists have not seen the success of their far-right counterparts. The domestic cultural history just isn’t there.
• CBS News Polls/YouGov are giving Senator Johnson (R) of Wisconsin a 1 point lead over Lt. Governor Barnes (D), 50% – 49%. Call it a dead heat. Notable: Republicans appear to have a turnout advantage. They are four points more likely than Democrats to say they’re definitely voting this year, and Johnson supporters are ten points more likely than Barnes backers to say they’re very enthusiastic about voting. Enthusiastic to vote for Johnson, who runs around threatening old, stable social net programs while spewing conspiracy rumors. My neighbors to the East are decidedly an odd bunch, but I’m not surprised, given their recent election habits.
• Former President Trump’s Make America Great Again Inc super PAC is finally getting involved in four hot races, Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as Georgia and Arizona. But will these political ads inspire voters to vote for his candidates – or motivate them to vote for the Democrats?
• It occurs to me that candidate Herschel Walker (R) of Georgia is not only endorsed by the former President, but was personally recruited by the former President. Walker failing to beat Senator Warnock (D) would be a tremendous blow to the political prestige of the former President, and given how Walker’s reputation is in tatters, there’s a real chance that Walker will not only lose, but actually be routed, despite Trump’s late efforts. It’s up to Georgia voters to decide if Walker is up to the job of Senator.
• Speaking of Georgia, Emerson College has Senator Warnock (D) up by two points, 48% to 46%, over Herschel Walker (R). Notable, maybe: Since the August Emerson Georgia poll, Warnock’s support increased four points and Walker’s support decreased by two points. If Emerson is as accurate as their A- rating suggests, then that’s significant, but as the gap is less than their margin of error of ± 3 points, and even the best pollsters don’t always get it right, it sounds more like just noise in the signal.
• Alaska Senator Murkowski (R) has gained support from a new super PAC named Country First, created by retiring Representative and member of the January 6th Committee Adam Kinzinger (R-IL). He did threaten to stay in politics, remember. But will word of this support play positively or negatively with the Alaska electorate? Beats me.
• Utah’s Evan McMullin (I) has also gained Country First’s support; again, I don’t know if this is a positive or a negative for the candidate. And Utah has a new poll, again from Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics, but conducted by B rated pollster Dan Jones & Associates (a detail which I’d missed before), showing challenger McMullin (I) losing ground as Senator Lee (R) leads 41% – 37% with a margin of error of ± 3.46 points. Notable: It looks like 8% of those surveyed are looking at other candidates, and, significantly, 12% are undecided. That’s where McMullin’s gold is located, in that group of undecided. He doesn’t have to convince Lee voters to change their minds, which can be difficult. But it’s not good that McMullin lost two points of support relative to Lee. Also notable: [The survey] found 97% of those surveyed say they are likely to vote, including 83% who say they will definitely vote. … According to the poll, Utahns who identified themselves as moderates represent the highest percentages of undecided voters. While McMullin is heading in the wrong direction, he’s not lost yet, and there are still plenty of votes to scoop up, and voters who may be inclined his way. I suppose the question will be whether moderates think McMullin is acceptable, or if he’s too conservative for their taste.
• Iowa finally has a new poll, but it’s bad news for challenger Admiral Mike Franken (D). Emerson College gives Senator Grassley (R), full of mendacity and confusion, a 49% to 38% lead, with a margin of error of ± 3.1%. Do I sound disappointed in my neighbors to the south? I’d like to give them more credit than this. But, as I said, I figured this race would get away from the Democrats.
• A rated Marist Poll gives Colorado Senator Bennet (D) a 48% to 41% lead over challenger Joe O’Dea (R). While this race is not out of reach, O’Dea must be aware of Bennet’s proximity to the magical number of 50%. These numbers are much like previous polls, suggesting O’Dea cannot find traction. It’s a pity, since he appears to be a moderate, and the failure of a moderate may be food for the extremists.
• If you’re interested in tactics, WaPo’s Jennifer Rubin thinks Rep Ryan (D) just gave a master class in a debate with J. D. Vance. The Ohio race may be the nation’s closest Senate race this cycle, although Wisconsin is giving it a run for its money.
• I just noticed FiveThirtyEight is recognizing Center Street PAC as a partisan pollster for the Democratic Party – see the tool tips on the above link. Please discount their polls by at least several points.

Last time I did this, something terrible happened. I forget what.

On this warm, windy Fall day I sighted a lone morning glory.

And one of these.

The warnings to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia continues:

“As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, I will not green light any cooperation with Riyadh until the Kingdom reassesses its position with respect to the war in Ukraine,” Menendez said in a statement first obtained by POLITICO. “Enough is enough.” …

“There simply is no room to play both sides of this conflict — either you support the rest of the free world in trying to stop a war criminal from violently wiping … an entire country off of the map, or you support him,” Menendez added. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia chose the latter in a terrible decision driven by economic self-interest.” [Politico]

But it’s worth noting that Saudi Arabia is a monarchy, absolute; a specimen of autocracy. The appeal to free world here isn’t moral, but economic, a warning to Saudi Arabia that it may lose access to lucrative markets if it chooses to side with a fellow autocracy.

Autocracies are not natural allies. Founded on little more than a need to gratify an enormous personal ego, they see other autocracies as rivals and existential dangers. The world is zero-sum, in their eyes. Whether Saudi Arabia chooses to go with Russia or the free world depends on where the most gratification of Muhammad bin Salman’s ego lies, and whether he thinks the USA can follow through.

Which is to say, I have no idea which way Saudi Arabia’s going to flail next.

From AA:

Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority plans to raise the transit fees for ships passing the waterway by 15% at the start of 2023.

In a statement, the Canal Authority’s chairman, Osama Rabie, said the transit fees for bulk and tourist ships will also be raised by 10% and will also be applied as of January 2023.

Rabie cited the increase in fees to current global inflation, which increased the operational costs and the costs of navigation services provided in the canal.

Avoiding long supply lines means avoiding factors that are out of producers’ control.

Over the last week or so, YouTube has convinced me that the urge to be pure, no matter how it’s defined, is more or less a disaster. In this particular case, the royal families – or family, if you prefer – of Europe decayed, as they kept the throne(s) in the family via sanctioned incest. To be succinct, the royal diseases sank their futures, and, in some cases, they even became disfigured monsters, convinced God favored them even as their offspring died early and tragically, and wars left them in ruins.

I see the same thing happening with abortion. As the extremists have taken control of the Republican Party and have tried, with varying degrees of success, to decree that abortion will not be permitted, the Jell-O is squeezing away from them. Their long-observed and discussed epistemic bubble has interfered with their ability to integrate simple realities with their political philosophies, and is beginning to lead to reports such as this one in Politico:

Who needs a funny caption?

Big Trouble In Little China (1986) is an old favorite of mine, but, sadly, it falls into that category of rose-tinted glasses movies. Yes, rather than howling with laughter, I chuckled, sometimes shaking my head, and I confess I wondered if the impetuously censorious among the current young generation would shake their fingers and scream in constructed outrage at certain points.

Why, it’s elemental, my dear Thunder!

This is farce upon farce. The first layer farce is the sendup of Chinese culture, as we’re first introduced to a single Chinese street gang, intent on kidnapping a green eyed Chinese immigrant at the airport, which is swiftly, if confusingly, followed by an encounter with two Chinese street gangs, battling for control of the byways of Chinatown in San Francisco, whose tidy little war is interrupted by the appearance of magical king-fu characters out of myth: Thunder, Lightning, and Rain. Yet, for all their power, they are only minions for the really bad guy here: Lo Pan, an ancient and cursed sorcerer who leads a double existence, one as an ancient man in a wheelchair, barely breathing and cackling in a most demented way, the other as a ghost of a mature man, full of power, but unable to feel anything.

And he’s got hormones. In fact, he must sacrifice a green-eyed wife to the God of the East, Ching Dai, which would be tough on both of them. But there’s a way around this!

Into this mess drops Jack Burton, American truck driver and commentator on life, a man who overdosed one too many times on swagger and sangfroid. While helping buddy Wang Chi pick up his fiancee, green eyed Miao Yin, from the airport, Jack meets Gracie Law, a green-eyed lawyer intent on protecting the civil rights of another immigrant. Into this tableau intrudes the Lords of Death, looking to kidnap a victim for the Chinese slave trade.

From the middle of an airport.

So Miao Yin becomes their victim. The ensuing chase, them in their hot sports car, Jack and Chi in Jack’s monster tractor sans trailer, leads to the happy little street war, interrupted by the aforementioned kung-fu Gods, where Jack and Chi encounter Lo Pan. Jack is up for anything, but even his sangfroid, his swagger, is stressed by kung fu masters who fly around on chunks of lightning.

But Miao Yin, fiancee, marriage. So it’s off they go, with an increasingly unsustainable swagger on Jack’s part. And a second green eyed woman, Gracie Law, possibly to become wife number two, because, after all, evil sorcerers are always bigamists.

Well, we can tell the special effects budget ran short, as one character explodes, just out of sight, and the stage crew is kept busy throwing chunks of cabbage out, rather than special effects innards. The acting is effective, and the plot keeps you guessing, or at least giggling.

The whole thing is silly and depends on the charisma of Jack and, crazily, Egg Shen, a good guy sorcerer not yet mentioned, but its age shows, at least a little bit. Not in terms of racism, but it simply feels like the themes it is exploring are too obscure, too simple.

But it is good if you just need to pass a couple of hours.

Sweet thistles planted, we hope to harvest them by the time the horses come home from the fields, dragging the farmers behind them. In other news:

• Remember Michael Steele’s Pink Wave remark? Here’s some tentative evidence for it, via Kerry Eleveld on Daily Kos: Two Civiqs tracking polls suggest that Republicans and Donald Trump are in a newly precarious position with both independent women and men, but likely for different reasons. Not dispositive, but interesting. Visit the link for more information.
• Filed under SOMEONE WAS LISTENING: Following the Politico report that national Democrats are failing to spend on the close race in North Carolina, the Senate Majority PAC, aligned with Senate Majority Leader Schumer, is now … reserving an additional $4 million in TV ads in the race, according to spending figures shared first with NBC News. I think North Carolina is a prime pickup opportunity in the Senate for the Democrats, not only this cycle, but in 2026, when Senator Tillis’ (R) term comes to an end. Cheri Beasley (D) winning this cycle would certainly give the Democratic candidate in 2026 some needed momentum.
• A CNN Poll gives Arizona Senator Kelly (D) a 51% – 45% lead over challenger Blake Masters (R). CNN gets a B rating from FiveThirtyEight. Margin of error is thought to be ± 4.4 points.
• Another CNN Poll calls the Nevada race of Senator Cortez Masto and challenger Adam Laxalt a dead heat. The actual numbers show Laxalt up by two points, 48% – 46%. Margin of error is thought to be ± 4.7 points. Can Masto re-energize the Hispanic vote?
• An InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia gives Senator Warnock (D) a 47% – 44% lead over scandal-ridden challenger Herschel Walker (R). As the poll has a margin of error of ± 4.2 points, that suggest this race is a dead heat. InsiderAdvantage has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight. But there’s also gossip: Walker Campaign Political Director Taylor Crowe has been fired, reportedly for leaking information to the media. And another poll, by A rated SurveyUSA, gives Senator Warnock a 50% – 38% lead over Walker. This seems seriously out of line with other polls, but SurveyUSA is A rated, so it must be taken seriously. Walker’s campaign is burning, are Republican officials paying attention? Or have they given up?
• Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D) continues to lead challenger Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania according to a Monmouth University poll, 48% – 43%. Notable: Few specific reasons emerge in describing reluctance to support the Democrat, but it is worth noting that only one probable Fetterman voter in the poll mentioned health concerns as a reason they might not support him. Fetterman’s misstep at primary time, when he suffered a stroke, is apparently not a big deal.
• Oh, yeah, add California to the list of Senate seats for which no polling apparently exists.
• Colorado Senator Bennet (D) leads challenger Joe O’Dea (R) 50% – 41%, according to B rated Data for Progress. It’s margin of error is ± 3 points, but I have to wonder: … conducted a survey of 1,005 likely voters in Colorado using SMS and web panel respondents. Is this really a reliable survey method? I admit I’m not up on Internet methodology. If it’s accurate, O’Dea is running out of time to persuade independent Bennet voters to change their minds.
• Politico via MSN: Senate Republicans’ campaign arm is pulling millions of dollars in spending from New Hampshire’s race to shore up other candidates across the board, as Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan continues to poll ahead of her challenger. Much like Senators Kelly, Cortez Masto, and Murray, Senator Hassan was considered an opportunity for a Senate seat pickup by Republicans. Apparently, Republican leaders are finding extremist candidate Don Bolduc is not an effective force in New Hampshire. His flip-flopping, however, has been impressive. Too bad the Olympics didn’t make it an Olympic sport, eh?
• Oregon is finally getting a Senate poll, and it’s Emerson College Polling, giving incumbent Senator Wyden (D) a 51% – 32% lead over challenger Jo Rae Perkins (R). Six years ago Wyden won by 23 points, so a 19 point lead is no surprise at all.
• Indiana’s Senate race now has a second poll, and there may be something going on here. ARW Strategies is giving Senator Todd Young (R) only a two point lead over challenger Mayor Thomas McDermott (D), 39% – 37%, in a race for a seat that Young won easily by ten points six years ago. The problem? ARW is unknown to FiveThirtyEight, so it’s difficult to judge whether or not this poll should be taken seriously. ARW thinks Todd will end up winning easily, but if McDermott is this close with four more weeks to go, and a lot of undecideds still available, this may be an upset in the making.

When the sweet thistles were harvested, we buried the link to previous news in a bale of it, completely by accident, and then dug for hours to find it. Here. Brush off the debris first or –

It’s a dumpster fire, and, of course, you know it’s the Walker campaign in Georgia, following multiple revelations: his funding of an abortion several years ago, which he fervently denies, and his failure to follow through on suing the reporting news media, finally followed by a semi-admission, and his grown and acknowledged son, Christopher, a conservative himself, repudiating his earlier support for Walker, which are merely follow-ons to Walker’s absolutist support for a national ban on abortion, his utter gibberish when it came to the Uvalde tragedy, his mendacity when it comes to being a member of law enforcement, and his inadequacies, to be polite, in regard to other national priorities.

But, having seen bits and pieces of his interview by Hugh Hewitt, a prominent conservative pundit, perhaps the worst part of this firestorm is the simple fact that he’s getting exposure that the power-holders of Georgia, the independent voters, are going to see.

What will they see?

The Senate requires members who are intelligent, articulate, and systematic in their thought processes. While Walker may be intelligent, he’s neither articulate nor particularly systematic. He comes across very poorly.

And that won’t impress independent voters who, most likely, will be aware that they bear the responsibility for selecting an excellent Senator, not an old football player eager to relives his glory days.

This exposure of his patent inadequacies, not so much as his apparent hypocrisy on abortion, may doom him.