POLLS, POLLS, POLLSTER RATINGS!
Turns out the legendary Nate Silver, now running Silver Bulletin, has updated pollster ratings, and they appear to be free of a paywall. Silver is using an alphabetic rating system, and, for pollsters where there’s a paucity of data, the range the pollster falls into is indicated as, for example, A/B. See this link for the actual ratings and Silver’s explanation. I’ll try to reference them in the future, along with an indication of which way a pollster leans, in parentheses. Not all pollsters are rated, as polls without a comparative reality are difficult to completely evaluate.
And a big thank you to Mr. Silver.
IT’S A STAMPEDE!
It has to be, CNN says so!
The GOP stampede away from Trump is growing – including in pretty red districts
Which illustrates the mistake of using pretty in this context. And reinforces the point running through these Campaign Updates for months now: The Mendacity Machine, aka President Trump, is a burden, not a positive, in most locales. There are a few districts where a candidate’s loyalty to Trump and/or MAGA is important; but most no longer value it, and, in fact, it’s an inverse correlation. Not a neutral factor, but a disaster for such a candidate.
Or, as old blogger Paul Waldman comments, It’s hard to think of many GOP politicians whose careers have been built more on their devotion to Trump. The fact that [Byron] Donalds [GOP nominee for Florida Governor] is backing away from him is incredibe. [Yes, that’s a sic.]
Prices continue to climb as well. This article from the Fox 11 News (Green Bay, Wisconsin) web site illustrates an ongoing problem for the President and his adherents:
Nationally, the average cost for diesel is $6.39 per gallon.
A year ago, the national average for diesel was $2.69 cheaper.
This comes as the war in Iran disrupts the world’s flow of fuel.
Most consumer goods in the United States rely on being transported with diesel-powered trucks.
As diesel prices continue to soar, the cost of your groceries will too.
Even such prices for such basic, necessary services as an oil change for your vehicle has jumped substantially, and, meanwhile, the President is erratically trying to act like a dictator with such directives as banning CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from his press conferences.
A judge has since ordered their passes be reinstated.
BUT A LITTLE SECRET FOR Y’ALL
The role I try to fulfill when writing this blog, besides being a vent hood for the frustrations and interests of my days, is to see the events of the day, well, as I am: a working dude, not yet retired, with no formal training, nor experience, in government and politics, but a generally interested observer who has watched and written about politics and other topics for more than forty years. For those readers shaking their heads in disbelief, social media has reportedly been around since the early or mid 1970s; I became aware and involved around 1984.
Back on point, I’m not a news reporter; I’m a guy who tries to bring an unfamiliar interpretation to topics.
Now I’m having some troubles. I’ve written about President Trump and the Republican Party for years, and now most other writers, with more knowledge and more time than I, have become more aware of the toxicity of the Republican Party, and the mental illness that afflicts the President. It gets harder and harder to find something insightful, that I haven’t seen a dozen time in web search, to say after all these years.
Vent, vent, vent. Andrew Sullivan decided to move on to other topics. Post mid-terms, I’m not sure what I’ll be doing. Vlogger Belle, who runs several YouTube channels for political commentary, suggests we may all be running for our lives. What fun! I wrote about that earlier today.
RIDING A NEW HORSE
Stumpy, the old horse cum dachsund, is here.
- In Texas The Trafalgar Group (rated B, with a conservative lean) gives Senate candidate James Talarico (D) a 46.4% – 45.2% lead over rival Ken Paxton (R). This poll has a margin of error of ±2.9 points. Most other pollsters give Talarico a larger lead.
However, unknown pollster Texas Southern University does agree, estimating Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46% support. Their voters claim to know both candidates for voting purposes, by and large, so polls in Texas may not change much as we approach Election Day.
But Marist Poll (A-, slight lean Democratic) does not agree with the first two pollsters:
Talarico (50%) edges Paxton (44%) among registered voters statewide in the contest for U.S. Senate in Texas. Talarico receives majority support among independents (55%) Regardless of whom they support, 52% of voters overall think Paxton will win the Senate race.
My bold. A good bet when it comes to forecast meteorology is that tomorrow will be like yesterday, and I think voters are using the same methodology for voting results.
And Marist is also estimating the governor’s race to be a dead heat, another shocker in this archetypal Republican state.
But the news for candidate Paxton may be considerably worse than that:
Former President George W. Bush and Sen. John Cornyn gathered Republican donors for a fundraiser Monday night in support of many of the party’s major Senate candidates, excluding Texas GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton, sources familiar with the event confirmed to ABC News. [ABC News]
The report notes that Michael Whatley (R) of North Carolina and Rep Collins (R) of Georgia were also excluded. Whether you’re perceived as a probable failure or an outcast from the Party, that certainly makes the job of winning harder. Especially if you think that he who has the most money, wins.
The love of money is the root of all evil. 1 Timothy 6:10. As an agnostic, I hardly ever quote the Bible.
- In Iowa The Trafalgar Group (B, with a conservative lean) gives Senate candidate Rep Hinson (R) a 44% – 42.1% lead over Josh Turek. This poll has a margin of error of ±2.9 points, much like their poll of Texas, which strikes me as odd. This is in contrast to other polls giving Turek a lead.
And here comes one now: Marist Poll estimates Turek as having a substantial lead of 50% – 42%, with a margin of error of a largish ±4.4 points. Turek’s lead is particularly interesting in view of this:
The partisan breakdown for this survey among registered voters is 29% Democrat, 35% Republican, and 32% independent.
Some Republicans are defecting, as is made explicit: 98% of Democrats, 13% of Republicans, and 49% of independents are voting for Turek. In that last category, only 36% of independents are voting for Hinson, and 14% is the total for Other and Undecided/Refused.
I’m not drawing any conclusions without more polls, but it appears Elon Musk may have:
Some largesse from Musk’s America PAC is already trickling into Iowa to help Republican Ashley Hinson hold a GOP Senate seat in a spirited contest against Democrat Josh Turek.
It’s heartwarming to see a trillionaire help a mere millionaire who is down on her luck. In 2024, Musk spent $290 million to help Donald Trump and Republican candidates. A mere rounding error in Muskatopia.
Musk, it has been reported, wants to change the subject in these Senate races from rising consumer prices, expensive gas and inflation to transgender issues. Clearly, this is exactly what Americans want. [Todd Dorman, The Gazette]
Or is it panic? Money helps achieve a lot of goals, but elections can be a notable exception.
Iowa’s open Senate seat would appear to be up for grabs, even if the Marist Poll correspondents think Hinson will win by a 59% – 37% margin.
- Take a deep breath and retrieve that shaker of salt: South Dakota Senate candidate Brian Bengs (I) has a sponsored poll from Public Policy Polling (B+, with a slight lean leftward), claiming he’s only down three points. Good for him, if true. But sponsored polls are always a red flag.
- I don’t know what’s going to happen in Nebraska, but this article can’t be good for incumbent Senator and Trump ally Senator Ricketts (R):
According to the [Nebraska Farm] Bureau, the biggest spike they’ve seen is in the cost of fuel and fertilizer. Abygail Petersen, an economist and analyst with the Nebraska Farm Bureau, said diesel prices alone raise costs by nearly 45%.
Petersen said this means an estimated $759 million loss for corn and a $266 million for soy beans. [KLKN-TV]
That’s a harsh punishment for loyalty to President Trump, and may bring about a protest no-vote.
- In Ohio former and perhaps future Senator Sherrod Brown (D) has acquired a new adversary: the cryptocurrency industry:
A super PAC funded by the cryptocurrency industry is preparing to spend at least $30 million in the Ohio Senate race to try to block Democrat Sherrod Brown from returning to Washington, the group’s most aggressive move of the 2026 midterm cycle to date.
The move by Fairshake, a super PAC group bankrolled by a trio of leading crypto companies, comes just days after Democrats voted down an industry-backed digital asset bill on the Senate floor. [Politico]
Long-term readers know I don’t have much use for the cryptocurrency industry, which sucks down energy and increases CO2 emissions for software of minimal unique, non-critical utility. In fact, it seems to be little more than a grifter-wonderland. See [no relation] Molly White’s blog.
Remember, marketing dollars stop influencing votes once the contest reaches the margins. Just for that cherry on top, the cryptocurrency industry associating themselves with the Republicans may backfire disastrously as well.
In other news, Quantus Insights (B/C, leans Republican) thinks Senator Husted (R) has caught up with former Senator Brown (D), each with 45%. Seems unlikely.
- Florida’s Senator Moody (R) is enjoying a 49% – 42% lead over Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon (D), according to the estimates of InsiderAdvantage (B+ with a Democratic lean). This is in contrast to the St. Pete Polls report of the last Florida Campaign Update, showing Moody and Nixon virtually even, but it’s important to realize St. Pete Polls has a Silver Bulletin rating of C+, with a slight lean to the Democrats. That is not promising and, if I’d known they had that low a rating, I would have omitted that result.
Stetson University (B/C, which is fairly awful) gives Senator Moody a 51% – 40% lead.
I think Florida, between an ill-organized Democratic support structure and an elderly, conservative citizenry, is likely to retain Senator Moody sans a black swan event that leaves Senator Moody covered in mud. For another, more upbeat, view, here’s Sarah Rumpf on Mediaite.
- Michigan news has been atypically quiet, but Suffolk University (A- with a Democratic lean) has an estimate of an El-Sayed lead of 46.8% – 39.6%, no margin of error provided, over former Rep Mike Rogers. That’s a bit of an outlier, but Suffolk does appear to have a good history. Perhaps Rogers’ refusal to debate, as noted in the last Michigan Campaign Update, has had a negative impact.
Today several more polls have appeared, just prior to publication of this Campaign Update. A-rated Siena College is weighing in:
Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 49% – Mike Rogers (R) 44%
Rasmussen Report (B+, Republican lean) claims El-Sayed leads by a 47% – 44% margin with a margin of error of ±3 points, and co/efficient (B, with a heavy Republican lean) has El-Sayed and Rogers tied at 45% with a margin of error of ±3.36 points, which is at odds with Suffolk. Given co/efficient’s predilections, my guess is that El-Sayed holds a small lead.
- According to Alaska Survey Research (A/B, strong lean to the Democrats), in Alaska former Rep Mary Peltola (D) leads incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R) 48.4% – 43.8% with a margin of error of ±3 points, and Peltola wins in the second round of this ranked choice voting affair.
If you want to see Peltola’s publicity still, presumably provided by the campaign, follow the pollster link. It’s better than most.
- Conservative groups pulling ads from North Carolina suggests the abandonment of the Whatley salient. As I agree, I’ll be lessening incidental research into the Senate race in North Carolina and assume we’ll have a Senator Cooper (D) next January.
But since I’m here, mediocre pollster Quantus Insights (B/C, with a heavy Republican lean) gives Cooper a 48.4% – 43.3% lead, or 5.1 points, which make it a Republican-leaning outlier. They note that this election turns on independents.
High Point University (B/C, no lean) gives Cooper a 50% – 42% lead, and YouGov (B, with a heavy Democratic bias) gives Cooper a 52% – 41% lead.
- In Georgia YouGov (B, leans Democratic) is estimating this race as Ossoff leading Rep Collins (R), 51% – 41%.
- Unknown pollster Advanced Targeting Research estimates the Idaho Senate race to be an unbelievable substantial lead for Todd Achilles (I) over incumbent Senator Risch (R), 45.5% – 39.4%, with Matt Loesby (L) getting 4.5%. Like I said, unbelievable. Waiter, can we get a known, excellent pollster to prepare our food?
- In Maine, hints of corruption in Senator Collins’ (R) campaign are being mooted about:
For the first time in her two-decade Senate career, the Republican lawmaker from Maine was in danger of losing her seat. President Donald Trump’s dismal approval ratings were dragging her down in the polls, and she was falling behind her likely 2020 Democratic challenger in fundraising.
Scott Reed, head of the Collins super PAC, was on a mission to close that gap. Reed was meeting that day with three executives from a Hawaiian defense contractor, Navatek. A year earlier, Collins had helped their company land a multimillion-dollar Navy research contract in Maine. Now, seated at a coffee shop not far from the U.S. Capitol, Reed asked them for a $500,000 donation. [ProPublica]
I’ve seen other news outlets with similar reports, although they may all be sourcing from this report. Her rival, Troy Jackson (D), will be pushing this hard I’m sure.
UMass-Lowell (A-, with a substantial Democratic lean) rates this race at 48% – 43% for Troy Jackson (D). However, their margin of error of ±4.66 points is quite large.
But A-rated Siena College has this race at:
Maine: Susan Collins (R) 49% – Troy Jackson (D) 46%
No margin of error provided, although Maine Public Radio reports this result falls within the margin of error.
The University of New Hampshire (B- and a heavy Democratic lean) puts them in a statistical tie at Jackson 51%, Senator Collins 49%.
- Siena College (A) estimates that Rep Pappas (D) is leading in New Hampshire’s Senate race:
New Hampshire: Chris Pappas (D) 50% – John Sununu 45%
This roughly correlates with the poll from InsiderAdvantage (B+) in the last Campaign Update for New Hampshire suggesting Pappas had an 8 point lead.
The University of New Hampshire (B-) gives Pappas a 50% share of the vote and Sununu 42%.
- Louisiana’s Jamie Davis (D) may be challenging Senator Cassidy’s assertion that Davis’ rival and presumptive future winner of the Louisiana Senate seat, for which the Senator was successfully primaried, Republican Rep Julia Letlow, may not be so … presumptive? Davis sponsored a poll, which is a bit of a red flag, but Hart Research Associates (A-, Democratic lean) is well-rated, so this may indeed be legit.
Louisiana’s Democratic Party released a new U.S. Senate poll Sept. 24 that showed Democrat Jamie Davis trailing Republican Congresswoman Julia Letlow by 4%, which party officials believe puts the underdog Davis within striking distance. …
Hart Research Associates conducted the survey Sept. 17–19, 2026, for the Davis campaign. It surveyed 500 likely voters with a 4.5% margin of error. [Shreveport Times]
This is a consequence of all the blunders made by a Party that didn’t screen and train its candidates, and tried to make a virtue of this sin. Louisiana may be second only to Alabama in allegiance to the Republican Party. What’s next? A loss in Alabama? They’re already threatening to elect Senator Tuberville (R) to the governor’s mansion, so that seems unlikely, although how Alabamans would go about removing that particularly blot from their honor really escapes me.
All luck to Mr. Davis.
- Unknown pollster Wedgewood Polls gives Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) a 50% – 48% lead over incumbent Senator Marshall (R) in Kansas., within the margin of error of ±4.4 points, so it’s a tie. That’s congruent with Emerson College’s poll in the last Campaign Update covering Kansas.
- And in what may be the most trivial news of the Senate campaigns, Minnesota’s GOP Senate candidate Michelle Tafoya has been caught in a silly lie – or she’s a bit absent-minded.
Michele Tafoya, the Republican Senate nominee in Minnesota, recently denied ever saying she was embarrassed to be from the state she wants to represent, but a digital deep-dive review by CNN’s KFile found she had done just that.
In a local radio interview earlier this month, the former NFL sideline reporter was asked whether Minnesota embarrassed her, and she insisted that wasn’t true. “If I were embarrassed to be from Minnesota, would I be running for the United States Senate to represent Minnesota?” Tafoya said. “I have never said that.”
But in a since-deleted March 2023 post uncovered by the KFile team, Tafoya wrote: “I’m embarrassed to say I live in Minnesota. This state has gone so far left it’s amazing any of the snow still sticks.” [Raw Story]
I doubt that’ll damage her campaign.
But if I may make a serious suggestion, Mz Tafoya, get out of the Republican Party. Right now. That’s a change that might help you win an exceedingly close race.
FIN? NO FIN?
Here’s the list of States hosting Senate races that I think are decided and I shan’t cover any longer because it’s a tidal wave of results. You think the above was tiring to read? I had to write it. Most of it by hand, barring the occasional quote. Dispensing with these States will ease composition.
Alabama (R), Delaware (D), Florida (R), Georgia (D), Illinois (D), Massachusetts (D), New Jersey (D), New Mexico (D), North Carolina (D), Oklahoma (R), Oregon (D), Rhode Island (D), Tennessee (R), Virginia (D), West Virginia (R), and Wyoming (R). Naturally, a black swan sighting will result in removal from this list.
