CALL IT A NUMBERS GAME
Old-time blogger Paul Waldman thinks the Democrats will have a good election come November:
Wisconsin is the most closely divided state in the country; the last three presidential races were all decided there by less than one percentage point. This year, about 491,000 Republican voters cast ballots in the governor’s race, the most important on the ticket. But on the Democratic side, a whopping 792,000 people turned out to vote. [MS NOW]
Etc. etc. Democrats must be encouraged. I don’t know if independents are filled with enthusiasm, or just feel the Democrats are the lesser of two evils. Not incidentally, in the Minnesota Senate primary, the Democrats had a turnout advantage of 677,301 to 389,726.
THE BEGINNING OF THE BEGINNING, OR IS IT A PEAT BOG DOWN THAT PATH?
Alani Bankhead (D), Democratic nominee for the open Senate seat in Montana, who refused to withdraw her nomination for same despite pressure to do so, on the quasi-phenomenon of Democratic nominees dropping out and sometimes endorsing Independent candidates:
Bankhead, an Air Force veteran and a first-time political candidate, said the strategy of running independents is a bad idea that hurts Democrats in the long term.
“If you want to rehabilitate the brand, then you do it by rehabilitating the brand, not supporting independents,” she said in an interview. Undermining the voters’ will by asking the Democratic nominee to withdraw is “highly inappropriate” and further upsets voters, she said. [WaPo]
From that minimal quote I draw the inference that she’s not considered the overwhelming financial resources Republicans are reputed to have available for this election. Pundits have remarked on how the Texas Senate race is going to draw down those resources and possibly cost the Republicans a Senate seat or even two elsewhere. These Democrats who are withdrawing, assessing that the national Democratic brand is repugnant to many independents, even in the face of the downright disastrous amateurism endemic to the Republican Party, are attempting to threaten seats that, not so long ago, were considered Solid Republican, by removing themselves from the equation that would otherwise result in splitting the vote of those voters who have found Republican behavior disappointing.
Let’s add the phenomenon of dishonest polling. Below, I cite a poll I find a little unbelievable, that showing Pastor Hamilton (R) in a dead heat with Senator Marshall (R) in Kansas. If dishonest polls, which can be difficult to recognize, sway the adversary of the source of the funding for a poll, then financial resources may be expended by the adversary where unnecessary, while starving another race of needed funds.
And could this lead to new political Parties that might replace the doddering collective dementia patients now dominating the political landscape? Former Republican and former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard is starting a new Party, so the answer is a definite maybe.
RUN DOWN THE AISLE, CONTESTANT!
This is Jeopardy! and you’re running for the Senate Campaign news! Is that a mixed metaphor or just game show dementia?
- I missed this one in rarely polled Arkansas: On 5 Aug, 2040 Strategy Group, sponsored by Democratic Senate nominee Hallie Shoffner, released a poll showing incumbent Senator Cotton (R) leading Shoffner 46% – 43%, within the margin of error of ±4 points. Money quote:
The statewide poll of 586 likely Arkansas voters, conducted in late July by the 2040 Strategy Group, was also able to quantify something you probably already knew: The bloodthirsty and charisma-deficient automaton that is Tom Cotton is just not a very likeable guy. [Austin Gelder, Editor, Arkansas Times]
I assume this is considered an opinion piece by Gelder. More importantly, not knowing 2040 Strategy Group, and the poll being sponsored by an interested party, implies to me a high doubtfulness quotient. I’ve never cared for Senator Cotton, so it’s nice to see it’s a shared perception and not just a personal quirk on my part. But believing these results are accurate for the late July timeframe is a bit of a stretch.
- A new Fox News poll in Michigan gives former Rep Rogers (R) a 51% – 47% lead over Abdul El-Sayed.
- In Ohio former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) still holds a large lead over incumbent Senator Jon Husted (R), 53% to 45%, according to Fox News. Money quote:
Donald Trump won Ohio by 11 points in 2024. Still, a vulnerability for Husted is his connection to Trump, as 51% are concerned that he’s too close to the president. That’s up 5 points from 46% who felt that way about Husted in June. Plus, fewer voters, 44%, are worried Brown is too closely tied to the Democratic Party establishment.
Some entity called Wedgewood Polls gives Brown a smaller lead of 48% – 44%. Take that for what you will.
- Endorsements are piling up for the special GOP primary runoff of 25 August in South Carolina. According to WIS10, Senator D. Graham (R) has added vanquished foe Russell Fry (R), Lt Governor Pamela Evette (R), Senator Thune (R-SD), Senator Cotton (R-AR), and others to her list of endorsers. Rival Rep Norman (R) has former Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC), former Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC), former candidate for this position and current Representative Nancy Mace (R-SC), Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) and Senator Mike Lee (R-UT), along with others.
What does an endorsement get you these days? I rarely hear it noised about as any kind of factor, unless it’s Trump, who endorsed Senator D. Graham a couple of weeks ago. This may not mean much at all.
- In Kansas, Public Policy Polling gives Senator Marshall (R) a mere one point lead, a shockingly small 46% – 45% margin over Pastor Adam Hamilton (D), and further states that, after familiarizing their respondents with biographical information, Hamilton leads Marshall 45% – 44%, which I’m sure is within the margin of error. Public Policy Polling’s accuracy is not known to me, however, so season that report with generous salt.
- Alaska Democratic Senate candidate and former Rep Mary Peltola (D) has rejected the former Senator and VP, Kamala Harris (D).
“Mary isn’t seeking endorsements from anyone from the Lower 48 – her focus is and always will be Alaska,” a Peltola spokesperson said in a statement. “That’s why she’s proud to have the endorsement of AFGE, the Alaska AFL-CIO, Alaska IBEW Local 1547, and more than 10,000 Alaskans who have signed up to volunteer with the campaign.”
Yes, there is a poll out for Alaska, but Change Research had a poor rating from FiveThirtyEight, so I’ll be ignoring it. But this is worth mentioning:
Amid reports of a campaign shakeup on the eve of Tuesday’s primary election in Alaska, a spokesperson for Democrat Mary Peltola acknowledged that she has changed top staff as she faces a pivotal race against Republican U.S. Sen. Dan S. Sullivan.
“The campaign has undergone staffing updates as we transition into the general election and we appreciate the contributions of everyone who built the winning campaign to send Mary to the US Senate this November,” a spokesperson for Mary Peltola’s campaign said in an emailed statement. [Anchorage Daily News]
Interesting, but I think Peltola is guaranteed a spot in the general election, as four are available.
- Relying on the accuracy of primary election polls from even the best pollsters has been a dicey proposition so far this season, so don’t put any cash on this UMass-Amherst poll of Massachusetts. It shows Senator Markey (D) leading Rep Moulton (D), 60% – 32%. If we choose to consider the poll to be accurate, it appears primary voters have resolved any concerns over Senator Markey’s age. The same poll shows both Markey and Moulton with commanding leads over presumptive Republican nominee John Deaton. No surprise there.
Suffolk University gives Senator Markey a substantially smaller margin of 52% – 38% over Representative Moulton. Back when they existed, FiveThirtyEight gave Suffolk a rating of 2.9/3, so Suffolk was in the highly respected category.
- In lightly polled Rhode Island, incumbent Senator Jack Reed (D) has a commanding lead over his primary challengers, similar to a previous poll by University of New Hampshire back in April, according to Salve Regina University.
- Senator Collins (R) of Maine, running for re-election, has lost an ally.
Planned Parenthood’s political action committee Monday announced new ads attacking Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the first of a campaign totaling more than $600,000 to oppose the vulnerable Republican incumbent.
The ad buy is the largest investment from Planned Parenthood Votes across any state this cycle, according to Federal Election Commission records. Planned Parenthood Votes will use the campaign to hammer Collins on her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, one of the three justices nominated by President Donald Trump who helped form the majority that would later overturn Roe v. Wade. [WaPo]
I have not kept up with Planned Parenthood, so I don’t know if they’ve followed some other liberal organizations so far off the far end that they’re repellant to independent voters. That will affect how independent voters react, even though the presented concern is directly connected to Planned Parenthood and I expect should have a strong effect on pro-choice voters, especially those whose loved ones were put at risk through pregnancy.
TODAY IS …
… 18 August 2026, and it’s primary day for a few States. For Senate, Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming will be the focus of the political sorts; South Carolina’s special primary is next week.
