Yes, more, more. They never stop, do they?
- The final qualifier for the Senate seat race in Alaska is Buzz Kelley (R). In this RCV non-partisan primary, here are the rough numbers: Murkowski (R) 43.7%, Tshibaka (R) 40.4%, Chesbro (D) 6.2%, and Buzz Kelley (R) 2.2%. If Murkowski wins despite the endorsement of Tshibaka by former President Trump and the Alaska Republican Party, will the Party fade into irrelevance? This may be more likely than is first apparent, because the lone Alaskan seat in the US House is currently empty due to the death of the last seatholder, longtime Representative Don Young (R). The special election was held Aug 16th and is currently led by … Democrat Mary Peltola. But a lot of vote counting must still be performed. If Peltola wins the runoff for a couple of months of seat-filling, and then wins the regular election in November, has the Alaskan electorate given the Alaska Republican Party the big waveoff, basically telling the extremists to get out of town?
- The Kansas Reflector has an interview and profile of Kansas candidate Mark Holland (D).
- North Carolina’s contest between Rep Budd (R) and Cheri Beasley (D) is called “a dead heat” by the Civitas Institute, a conservative pollster. Each of the two candidates polled at 42.3%. This organization is not known to FiveThirtyEight, and so evaluating the poll is a bit difficult.
- A Trafalgar poll in Ohio gives J. D. Vance (R) a five point lead over Rep Ryan (D). Trafalgar is rated A- by FiveThirtyEight.
- A rated Fox News gives Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes (D) a 50% – 46% lead over incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R) in Wisconsin’s Senate race, which is within the margin of error. The consolation prize is that Johnson supporters are more enthused. Apparently, they want to lose their Social Security checks?
- Nevada’s Reno Gazette teams with Suffolk University to produce a poll showing incumbent Senator Masto (D) leading challenger Adam Laxalt (R) 45% – 38%. The last poll I saw gave Masto a three point lead, so this is a problem for Laxalt, who is Trump-endorsed. Suffolk is rated B+ by FiveThirtyEight. Masto appears to be benefiting from the Dobbs decision motivating Democratic voters. Is Masto safe yet? No. Trafalgar has released a poll showing Laxalt leading by three, 47%-44%. I’d wait until Masto, or Laxalt, has a twelve point lead before considering them safe.
- A rated Fox News gives incumbent Senator Kelly (R) of Arizona an eight point lead over Blake Masters (R), a considerable comedown from the fourteen point lead awarded by newcomer pollster Center Street PAC last week. That’ll learn me, darnit. But it’s still a lead outside of the margin of error in a purple state. In other news, though, another Republican+Independent group of forty leaders have announced their support for Kelly rather than Masters.
- It appears Rep Deming (D) has won the right in the primary to challenge Senator Rubio (R) for his seat in the Senate from Florida. The second place finishing Democrat didn’t exceed 10%.
- Oklahoma’s Rep Markwayne Mullin (R) will be the Republican’s nominee for the open Oklahoma Senate seat, as the Trump endorsee defeats T. W. Shannon with 65% of the primary vote. Does this signal a crack in the Republican voters? Probably not, but a poll would be welcome.
- In Washington McLaughlin & Associates claims the race between incumbent Murray (D) and challenger Smiley (R) is 49% – 43% for Murray, much tighter than other polls of this race. As I’ve noted before, this pollster is rated “C/D” by FiveThirtyEight, and in another negative note, RealClearPolitics, an aggregator of polls, does not appear to be willing to use this pollster.
A vague gesture of previous report & prediction here.
