THAT PESKY ANCHOR JUST WON’T GO AWAY
It’s always risky to interpret financial instruments as proxies, but today it’s worth noting there’s an apparently lack of confidence in Trump the Businessman, as DJT stock has dropped more than 10% in the last five days, and 34% in the last month. Trump’s memecoin, $TRUMP, dropped in excess of 5% and 22% over the same period, and that may be a better proxy since it’s little more than a virtual vanity plate. If it’s dropping in subjective value, that suggests the personage behind it is losing prestige, and fast.
Of course, to be fair, this is in the context of a cryptocurrency crime in excess of $6 billion. Long-time readers know I don’t, and never have, owned any cryptocurrency, and personally believe it’ll be collapsing down to zero soon enough. DJT’s involvement in cryptocurrency, whatever may be in their treasury and at World Liberty Financial, will undoubtedly weigh heavily on the minds of informed investors.
But I think the fall in investor faith in these two instruments is reflective of his erratic, narcissistic ways, and will continue to drag down many members of the GOP.
SCRATCH MY BACK, SCRA – HEY, COME BACK HERE!
It appears that some folks aren’t really fulfilling promises, once they’ve been thrust from the limelight.
THE COW BELLS ARE TUNING UP
And you thought cows played them without periodic maintenance and tuning? Of course, real music enthusiasts prefer trom – What? Oh, that’s right. Here ya go.
- Michigan State University (A/B) estimates Abdul El-Sayed (D) is stretching his lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R), 48.0% – 41.8%, MoE of ±2.9 points, in Michigan. Money quote:
This support is largely associated with high levels of economic discontent, disapproval of President Trump, and concern about corruption.
There are more than just numbers, with headings such as Michigan is viewed as falling behind. If you’re a Michigan reader, this might make for an interesting perusal.
In the hidden struggle of Democratic divisiveness, El-Sayed and primary rival Rep Haley Stevens (D) are finding the outside world can cause conflict even between fierce allies. - Texas remains popular with pollsters. Maybe it’s that lovely barbeque.
A2 Insights (B/C, moderate Republican lean) has James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R), 50.2% – 47.2%, MoE of ±4.9 points. They also have some lovely county-by-county maps, although not adjusted for population.
Unrated ActiVote gives Talarico a 52.1% – 47.9% lead over Paxton, with a MoE of ±4.9 points. They note … Compared with our October 21 poll, Talarico’s lead widened from 2.0% to 4.2%.
Quantus Insights (B/C, strong Republican lean) is swimming against the current, awarding Paxton a 48.7% – 47.6% lead, MoE a really rather largish ±6.4 points. In fact, margin of errors in this range tend to make me twitchy. - Kansas voters seem to be gravitating to Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) in the Senate race, as according to a poll from WaPo/Schar School (B/C) Hamilton now leads Senator Marshall (R) 52% – 43%, with an MoE of ±3.9 points. However, they sound a cautionary note:
This poll experienced significantly higher cooperation rates among registered Republicans than Democrats and additional signs of nonresponse error. See additional detail at wapo.st/pollarchive.
Hmmmmmm. I would have expected the reverse, if anything. In fact, I think that’s a typo, because WaPo actually published an article on the phenomena … and stated it as I expected.
Emerson College Polling (A-rated, with a mild Democratic lean) gives Hamilton a 49% – 45% lead over the Senator, with an MoE of ±3.5 points. As I would expect,“Notably, the difference in support between Hamilton and Marshall is the same as support for the Libertarian candidate, Graham, on the ballot,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Independents break for Hamilton, 59% to 25%, a 17-point increase in support for Hamilton among this group since last month.”
Independents remain the most important voting bloc in this race, and they will break towards the Democrats as the Republican management of economics and foreign relations has been terrible. I don’t doubt the President’s chronic mendacity factors into their judgment as well, as it does into mine.
In the endorsement race, Hamilton has added another: Republican Former US Senator Sheila Frahm endorses Adam Hamilton.
And then we’re going to have to throw the flag and call a piling on penalty: A class action usury lawsuit filed Thursday accuses U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall and his former Great Bend medical practice of routinely charging patients illegal interest rates on unpaid medical debt.
That cannot be spun in a positive way. - InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic lean) gives Florida Senator Moody (R) a 49% – 43% lead, MoE of ±2.83 points, over Angie Nixon (D).
- In Iowa, Rep Hinson (R) is definitely dancing frenetically:
Hinson spoke at Trump’s rally in Iowa last week, and she has featured Trump in her ads. But she has also gone further than any other Republican running for the Senate in a red state this year to make clear that she will stand up to Trump, pledging to be “a thorn in his side if he’s wrong for our state.” [WaPo]
The President is not just a spent political force, but now his presence, virtual as it necessarily must be, is a negative.
- In the race that might be the most dangerous to President Trump’s continued political survival, the Democrats are putting more dollars into South Carolina:
Senate Majority PAC is putting $750,000 into digital ads to boost Democrat Annie Andrews, who they see as in an increasingly competitive position against GOP Sen. Darline Graham. The first spot could air as soon as Friday, and is set to attack Graham over rising costs and position Andrews as a fighter against corruption, according to plans shared first with POLITICO. [Politico]
Losing an easily won race by endorsing a candidate because she’s easy to manipulate, rather than experienced and ready for the job? That’ll cause the President’s prestige to simply ooze rapidly down the toilet. If rallies and his presence and all he’s done still results in the loss of a red State that just months ago seemed like a Republican lock, then Trump, the emblematic amateur, will be shown to be utterly clueless and useless.
“There is no true conservative to vote for in this election,” [Rep Ralph] Norman’s son, Warren, wrote. – MS NOW. When a conservative says that, it makes it very likely that the Democrat will win.
- Has former Senate candidate and Maine Governor Janet Mills (D) actually endorsed Troy Jackson? I can’t tell. Jackson didn’t even compete in the original primary, in which Mills lost to Graham Platner, and when Platner resigned the nomination and an emergency nominating convention was held, Mills did not participate and Jackson won. Mills seems carefully ambivalent on the subject. Perhaps her loss to Platner means it doesn’t matter, but the chatter about her doesn’t seem insignificant.
- Unrated Grayhouse provides a poll of lightly surveyed Arkansas, finding Senator Cotton (R) leads Hallie Shoffner (D), 55% – 39%, MoE of ±4.3 points. There’s a hook here, though: this poll funded by Senator Cotton. The final numbers for this race should be instructive.
- Another unrated pollster appears here for the first time, VoteNexus, and it was also sponsored, this time by Idaho candidate Todd Achilles (I). It finds Senator Risch (R) leads Achilles, 49% – 43%. Disregarding questions of fidelity, here’s the contextual quote:
Independent Todd Achilles has pulled within single digits of three-term Senator Jim Risch in a state Donald Trump carried by 36 points. Risch is held below 50% on the ballot, 49% to 43%, and his job approval sits at just 41%, with one in five voters unable to rate his performance after nearly 18 years in the Senate.
This poll is probably more accurate than the previous poll by Advanced Targeting Research, which gave Achilles a lead. Just a suspicion.
- Here’s another sponsored poll, but this time the pollster has a rating. Hart Research (A-, with a solid Democratic lean), sponsored by the Democratic candidate for the Louisiana Senate seat, Jamie Davis (D), estimates that Davis is tied with Rep Julia Letlow (R) at 45% apiece, with a MoE of ±4.5 points. Importantly,
[Davis is] leading among registered independent voters by 23 points, the latest sign that Republicans’ control of the state may be falling apart. [gambit]
All very impressive, especially with this addition … with Hart reporting [Davis] now has a 52% name recognition with voters. For comparison, Letlow is at 77%. And if you like sordid rumors and the like, the above article has more.
But it’s all down to the voters, isn’t it? - Is this a shocker in Montana, or merely a disappointment?
[Former Secretary of Transportation Pete] Buttigieg’s endorsement of Bodnar, first reported by ABC News, is the latest in a string of Democratic efforts to swing the race toward the independent candidate, who some believe has a better chance to beat Republican Kurt Alme. Democrat Alani Bankhead has received numerous calls to drop out of the race in order to clear the field for Bodnar but has refused. [The Hill]
I still see this as the liberals split between two candidates, no matter which one is real and which one is fake. Prove me wrong.
- And in Alaska … Governor Dunleavy (R) is seeing Sullivan double, and doesn’t like it. He’s threatening to jam up the election process due to alleged ballot-stacking:
The Republican governor also did not say if the election will be certified if Mary Peltola, a Democrat and former U.S. representative, wins the race yet remains under investigation.
“If we conclude there were things … that are illegal, we will act on that,” he told News Nation. “And that may in fact impact whether somebody is seated in the U.S. Senate.” [Anchorage Daily News]
Unfortunately for him, ballot-stacking is not a new tactic in electoral politics, as I made clear in this Word of the Day. He has to keep in mind, too, that if he wants a further political career, jamming up the Senate election process will not put him in a good light, especially if Alaska is swinging Democratic.
He’s barking now, but that may not last.
OLD FINNY, EH?
Sure, goodbye. But let me first say that was a lot of news to cover in one day. I think at this point the Kansas and Minnesota seats are firmly in the Democratic camp. I don’t wish to name any more States, as that would be speculative. Perhaps tomorrow I’ll list States and my guesses.
