What’s Coming

As we enter Fall, headed for Winter and sub-zero temperatures here in Minnesota, I was struck by this description of the heat in areas such as the Middle East nation of Qatar, and how the US Air Force responds to it:

The U.S. Air Force calls very hot days “black flag days” and limits exposure of troops stationed at al-Udeid Air Base. Personnel conducting patrols or aircraft maintenance work for 20 minutes, then rest for 40 minutes and drink two bottles of water an hour. People doing heavy work in the fire department or aircraft repair may work for only 10 minutes at a time, followed by 50 minutes of rest, according to a spokesman for the 379th Air Expeditionary Wing. [WaPo]

Not a situation in much will get done. And when it’s like that in, say, Oklahoma?

They Clutch Too Steadfastly To Power

For the last two and a half years, we’ve been watching President Trump display incompetence and, allegedly, break multiple laws; I’ll dispense with the less tangible observations.

Most of these have been domestic in nature, or, for those that had international repercussions, they were obscured by Trump’s refusal to share the experiences with relevant White House officials, such as his meetings with Putin, or they were mostly about Trump: Emoluments, allegations of corruption, such as the recent contretemps in Ukraine, etc.

Which is all to say, the Republicans would utter a few words of distress, but do no more.

But the decision to withdraw troops from the border area of Syria and Turkey is a signal event for the Republicans. For those readers unfamiliar with the region (and I’m no expert), the Kurds are an ethnic minority who are mostly concentrated in the area where Turkey, Syria, Iran, and Iraq share borders. For decades, or even centuries, they’ve advocated, sometimes violently, for the re-creation of Kurdistan, carved out from the territories of the aforementioned countries. Those countries take exception to such a potential loss of territory, and Turkey, at least, has labeled the political wings of the Kurds terrorist organizations; the current crop of Turkish leaders seem to have curried hatred of the Kurds as part of their ruling strategy.

In that context, the stabilization of the Syrian / Turkish border included American troops to keep the Kurds, who provide valuable military services, as allies while containing the ambitions of the current Syrian government, which has recently survived a civilian revolt. Our sudden and unexpected withdrawal has left the Kurds, both military and civilians, in the roughly 20 mile strip of land within Syria on the Turkish border, at the mercy of the Turks.

And Turkish President Erdogan has little mercy for the Kurds, who provide a distraction from his economic mismanagement woes at home.

The rest of the world – which is to say, the all-important ruling classes – has seen this Republican President abandon an ally in the field. Obviously, the United States’ immense military and resources makes the Americans an attractive ally, but if you can’t trust them then it’s unwise to cut them the sort of deals which lead to prosperity, because losing the backing of an ally at a key moment is disastrous.

So now – regardless of the announcement that the Turks have agreed to a cease-fire, because they have doubtless achieved their objectives and can throw a bone to Pence, the negotiator, and Trump – the Republicans have to decide:

Do they take their international responsibilities seriously enough to vote to get rid of Trump in an impeachment?

If they don’t, then every other nation in the world will know that whenever the Republicans are in charge, they are not to be trusted. Rather than favorable trade terms, unfavorable. Don’t back them in military conflicts. View their links to the Russians with suspicion.

It’s a great pity that the person who was the closest to being a conscience for the Republicans has passed away. Senator McCain (R-AZ) certainly had one of the finest understandings of foreign relations and the dynamics inherent in same of the current generation of Congressional members on either side of the aisle, and he would be leading the charge to remove the President in the face of this outright betrayal of our allies. McCain would have taken Trump’s irrelevant statement that the Kurds “are no angels” and jammed it right up his ass.

Do the Republicans realize this? They might. When the House offered a resolution to rebuke the Administration over the matter, it passed.

The House on Wednesday voted overwhelmingly in favor of a resolution condemning President Donald Trump‘s decision to end U.S. military support of Kurdish forces in Syria.

The measure received bipartisan support with a 354-60 vote. All those who voted against were Republicans. [UPI]

However, the Senate Republicans may not have the opportunity to display their displeasure, due to the meddling of one Senator Rand Paul (R-KY):

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) blocked an effort to bring a House-passed resolution formally breaking with President Trump’s Syria strategy up for a vote.

Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) tried to get consent Thursday to bring up the resolution, arguing that “we’re in real trouble.” …

Paul, a libertarian-leaning GOP senator, objected to Schumer’s request for a vote, arguing that he was trying to sidestep the Constitution.

“He should come to the floor and say that we are ready to declare war. We are ready to authorize force, and we are going to stick our troops in the middle of this messy, messy, five-sided civil war where we would be ostensibly opposed to the Turkish government that has made an incursion,” Paul argued. [The Hill]

A resolution to rebuke the President is just that. Paul is projecting possible consequences on what is essentially a motion to tell the President to stop being an impulsive idiot. Paul has a history of trying to meddle in foreign relations, and, like most libertarian thought on the matter, it’s ill-advised.

For the moment, the Republicans are teetering on the knife’s edge. This is the moment in which they should display leadership by defying the Trump base and voting, at least, to rebuke him. If the base complains, they should be told why the rebuke was necessary, and if an opportunity to remove Trump comes up, they should vote for it as well.

Otherwise, we can only assume their taste for holding power is stronger than their loyalty to the nation.

Those who voted against the House resolution will face hard questions in 2020. Will they still have a shield to hide behind in the person of President Trump? Or will he have been impeached and convicted, and be in hiding from other prosecutions?

Only time will tell.

RIP, Rep Cummings

A sad loss for the nation today as Representative Cummings (D-MD) has passed away from unannounced causes. I have not followed his career, but his standing as a long time civil rights leader and his reputation as a man of integrity and determination are well-known. Voices which clearly spell out the moral failings and requirements of today are one of the most important elements of the public conversation, and his has been stilled.

Celebrity Culture Should Just Die

I’ve never been much for celebrity, I’ve not put up posters of movie stars and whatnot, with the exception of a couple of posters my uncle gave me 45 years ago. I just regard the whole thing as suspicious – why do they want to be celebrities, anyways? I can understand the drive for excellence, of course, and the importance of society pointing at the excellent as role models. But when they strut about, chase the cameras, and etc, it just gets to be too much.

Better to glorify Stephen Hawking.

But this article on the use of celebrity culture to deprive the baby boomers of their wealth justifies my admittedly suspicious ways. Take it away, Craig Silverman of BuzzFeed.news (itself an uncomfortable link to celebrity):

Since 2015, Ads Inc. has made money — lots of it — by executing one of the internet’s most persistent, lucrative, and sophisticated scams: the subscription trap. The subscription trap works by tricking people into buying what they think is a single free trial of a celebrity-endorsed product. Although the customers would receive the product — which in most cases was not made by Ads Inc. itself — in reality, the celebrity has nothing to do with the offer. And in purchasing the free trial, the customer unwittingly commits to a pricey monthly subscription designed to be hard to cancel.

Yep, it’s a classic. And I have to say, the last 70 years has been a concerted, if uncoordinated, plan to train those legions of consumers into buying eagerly into celebrity culture.

“This is clearly a massive worldwide problem,” said Steve Baker, who spent two decades investigating scams at the FTC and now runs the Baker Fraud Report, a website that reports on consumer fraud. Last December, he published a detailed report on subscription traps for the Better Business Bureau, which found that most people are charged roughly $100 by the time they’ve figured out what had happened.

“There are millions of victims of this, certainly,” he told BuzzFeed News.

The Ads Inc. employee said its victims often have one thing in common: age.

“There is one demo that this workflow is targeted towards, and that’s baby boomers,” they said. “You run this toward anyone else, and it’s a disaster. But you do this fake news shit with a trial offer scam and you send it to somebody that’s not that savvy [and it works].”

So if you’re not a boomer, maybe you’re not infected with that celebrity meme. The thing is, it’s such a silly scam, you have to wonder if the victims’ minds are even turning over anymore:

You don’t know Ads Inc., but you may have seen one of its ads on Facebook: a tabloid-style image that claims a celebrity has been caught saying or doing something scandalous that puts their career or life in jeopardy. The ad leads to a webpage that mimics a media brand such as TMZ, Fox News, or People magazine. But it’s all fake: the “news” article, the website, and the additional claim that this star has, for example, discovered an amazing new skin cream that you can try for a small fee. The fake celebrity scandal hinted at in the ad is the hook that gets people to click so they can be pitched on what appears to be a no-risk, free product trial for a small price, such as $4.99.

And it never occurred to the victims to wonder how their favorite C&W singer or football player discovered this new product or principle or whatever?

It’s just dumb.

Here’s the real hitch in this Old West town:

Prior to these revelationsAds Inc.’s public image has been that of a digital marketing firm led by a charismatic twentysomething with tight connections in San Diego GOP politics. “Ads Inc. is a rebel alliance of hustlers and doers on a mission to disrupt the lifestyle industry with our advanced approach to product creation and marketing,” states the company’s LinkedIn page, which boasts that it’s “one of the fastest-growing advertising agencies in California.”

Burke presented himself as the archetype of a successful, young tech industry CEO. His social media posts showed him and his statuesque girlfriend boarding helicopters, private planes, and first-class cabins to party in Las Vegas, tour Japan, and safari in Africa, where Burke would eventually invest in Ol Malo, a ranch, game sanctuary, and lodge in Kenya, hoping to turn it into an “entrepreneur playground.”

Another Republican. It’s disappointing. But unsurprising. After all, who rode the lying dreams train into the White House on the backs of the boomers? That’s right.

Just another data point indicating boomers are easily taken in.

Belated Movie Reviews

Benny Hill in an early role?

While The Triumph of Sherlock Holmes (1935) gets off to a good enough start, pulling Holmes out of retirement due to a secret communique from an associate of arch-nemesis Professor Moriarty and the mysterious death of a man at Birlstone Castle, once Holmes has it half figured out, it goes to pieces. The long reminiscence of the dead man’s wife is far too detailed and knows too much for a man who had reputedly told her that his past was not her business.

Add in the fact that the attraction between them is not apparent, and Professor Moriarty’s connection to the entire matter is barely visible and not compelling, and this story became a disappointment, reinforced by the poor production values, or at least the quality of this print.

If you’re a Holmes completist, you may wish to see this, but otherwise it’s a bit of a slog for no great return at the end.

Three Measuring Sticks, Ctd

The Louisiana election results are in, and this gives me the opportunity to contrast two reports. The first is from a DLCC (Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee) mailing:

Last night, Democrats won in multiple Louisiana legislative districts that went for Trump in 2016, including one district where Trump won by over 43 points.

But the elections are nowhere near over. Dozens of other Democrats in toss-up districts had impressive results that are taking them to runoff elections on November 16.

An upbeat report, it seems. Here’s The Hill’s report:

Louisiana voters took a significant step to the right on Saturday, as Republicans notched wins up and down the ballot, giving their party an outside chance of sweeping to power just ahead of a crucial redistricting cycle that could cement their control of the state for years to come.

Amid record turnout for what is usually a sleepy off-year, irregular election, Louisiana Republicans locked up enough seats in the state Senate to amount to a super majority. The party came within seven seats of winning a super majority in the state House, too, with eight runoff elections to come in November.

Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) easily led the field of candidates running for the state’s top office, but he did not win a majority of the vote, which would have allowed him to avoid the Nov. 16 runoff.

Instead, his two leading opponents — businessman Eddie Rispone (R) and Rep. Ralph Abraham (R) — captured a combined 52 percent of the vote. That gives Rispone, who finished about 4 percentage points ahead of Abraham, a path to win the runoff.

The lesson here is to be careful of mono-sourcing your news.

These results should raise some questions for the Democrats. Is the Louisiana result due to endogenous or exogenous reasons? Was Trump really influential? Towards the latter question, prior to the election Edwards was polling 48%, and achieved 47%, well within the margin of error, so perhaps he had little influence.

The Hill’s report does have one clue in it:

Edwards grabbed about 91 percent of the African American vote, according to Couvillon’s estimates, a solid and necessary performance for any Democrat who hopes to win statewide office in a conservative Southern state.

But worryingly for the Democratic incumbent, African Americans made up a smaller percentage of the overall electorate than they have in past elections.

That suggests Edwards is not inspiring the black community to vote, although it’s hardly dispositive.

Current Movie Reviews

Once again, we’ve seen the fourth movie in a series, and once again I’m impressed with the quality. Toy Story 4 (2019) features the same amazing animation, acting, and imagination that has been present throughout this series. And it continues the tradition of telling a story which touches on the heart of the human condition, in this case the question of what to do when one’s purpose in life disappears.

Our continual hero, Sheriff Woody, and most of his companion toys have moved on to a new family and a new child to help raise, Bonnie. Unlike Andy, who considered Woody to be his best friend, Bonnie likes to create her toys, and when she creates Forky from a discarded plastic fork and some trash, it’s up to Woody to train Forky for toy-hood.

In fact, for the heavy responsibility of being Bonnie’s favorite.

During the training, they encounter the long missing Bo Peep, who had been a toy of Andy’s sister, and given away years earlier. Woody discovers his affection for Bo is undiminished, even as he learns that she is not only a Lost Toy, supposedly a horror for any toy, but she revels in it.

But lurking in the small town Bonnie’s family is visiting is the Antique Store, the home of the eerie Gabby Gabby, a doll full of dark purposes and manic drive, assisted by several Charlie McCarthy dolls. And she wants? Something of Woody’s, and she’ll do anything to get it – including holding Forky hostage.

In Woody, we see the relentless drive to do right, even in the face of the high cost of doing so, and how that can work out against all the odds. More importantly, we also watch as Woody realizes that in order to grow and mature, one must learn to accept that sometimes you are not the center of someone else’s existence, and that transitions, as painful as they may be, are a necessity of life.

Some new characters, and a new purpose in life, finish the lesson.

Strongly recommended.

Highest Bidder

So it looks like the United States military forces are being pushed towards becoming a mercenary outfit, if President Trump has anything to do with it. From a WhiteHouse.gov transcript of a traditional Trump helicopter press conference:

Q    Mr. President, why are you sending more troops to Saudi Arabia when you just said it’s a mistake to be in the Middle East?

THE PRESIDENT:  So we’re sending more troops to Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is a very good ally, from the standpoint that we get along with them very well — a very important player in the Middle East.  The relationship has been very good.  And they buy hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of merchandise from us, not only military equipment.  In military equipment, about $110 billion.  It’s millions of jobs.

Now, with that being said, we are sending troops and other things to the Middle East to help Saudi Arabia.  But are you ready?  Saudi Arabia, at my request, has agreed to pay us for everything we’re doing.  That’s a first.

But Saudi Arabia — and other countries, too, now — but Saudi Arabia has agreed to pay us for everything we’re doing to help them.  And we appreciate that.

It really makes me wonder what Trump would do if Iran began bidding for American military services. Would he abandon the Saudis if the price were right?

No doubt some readers wonder why we send military aid without financial compensation to other nations. The reason is that the system of international diplomacy doesn’t operate on a financial basis, nor can it; the goals of diplomacy are not facilitated by the transactional nature of the financial system. Why? A financial system is not about national existential questions, it’s about facilitating economic activity. It doesn’t foster analysis, or institutional memory.

And those two latter elements, among others, are critical elements of international diplomacy. Understanding what another nation’s ruling class intends to do – to you -requires institutional memory and analysis. Making wise decisions which increase your country’s prosperity by discouraging or, worse, defeating, an adversary’s armies and, thus, ambitions is the role of government.

On the other hand, sending your army off at the beckon of a pocketbook may increase accounts temporary, and they may not be used against you, but it may deprive you of needed troops elsewhere.

But that’s just the surface layer. A mercenary player in international diplomacy may think they’re taking advantage of international tensions to reap a windfall, but they’re assuming a static situation. Their clients soon become aware of the chaos caused by mercenaries who are allies in one conflict, enemies in the next, and always collecting intelligence on their own clients.

This is not a stable situation, and soon the mercenaries are dispatched. If they’re lucky, they’re boycotted; the unfortunate mercenary armies are massacred. Allegiance to national interests remains the gold standard, even today; the blue helmets of the United Nations are not considered to be an elite fighting force.

And the reputation of the mercenary army’s homeland? Besmirched. Funny word, isn’t it? It means a lower level of trust, less influence in the world.

President Trump has proven to be a very limited man. He’s a real estate developer of mediocre ability, who moved on to television stardom as the guy whose primary talent was his catchphrase: You’re fired! Not electrifying credentials for holding the top job in the United States, and he’s proving it. His emphasis on money puts his limits up in neon: I’ll do anything for a bit of cash.

United States parents, for all President Trump tells us he hates foreign wars, don’t believe him, it’s not true.

He hates not being paid like a mercenary for a foreign war.

It’s not nearly the same thing.

Belated Movie Reviews

Relax, he’s just in town to get the groceries.

If you’re a fan of movie monsters, you should be seeing Earth Vs The Spider (1958), for, well, Mr. Eponymous. When a man fails to return from a shopping trip, his daughter and her boyfriend go searching for him. In a cave not far from his wrecked truck, they find clues: skeletons, a sucked-dry corpse, a spider web reminiscent of those climbing ropes often seen slung over the sides of ships, and one big ol’ spider that likes to scream and make dinners out of people.

Making it back to town in one piece, they tell the skeptical town sheriff, who, with a few townspeople, including the local exterminators and a scientist, visit the cave and soon have an encounter the spider. One dead sheriff’s deputy later, the spider’s dead and en route to the museum for examination by the scientist, and all’s well.

Until the spider wakes up and lays waste to the town.

While the plot is a little creaky and the characters are made strictly from cardboard, there are some good elements. For example, the early rock band earned a nod of approval from my Arts Editor, and when the spider is awakened by their music, they’re a bit of a hoot as they make their escape. But more importantly, the cave cinematography, actually performed at Carlsbad Caverns, is tremendous, although I’m not sure about this ‘luminescent algae‘ to which they refer.

But exceeding the cinematography is the spider itself. This is a real, live spider, creeping around in all its hairy splendor, the microphotography, if you will, spliced almost flawlessly into the rest of the film. The exception to the generally excellent monster depiction is the final scene, where it appears they couldn’t get the spider to creep down a wall properly, so they replaced it with a very disappointing spider-dummy. But, overall, the spider is a lot of fun and is not ridiculous, unlike some monsters we’ve seen munching on hapless victims.

Whether or not the monster and the caves make up for the mediocre plot is up to the viewer. Enjoy!

Yeah, He’s Fire

And the Israeli right, initially so happy to have President Trump elected, are now finding out what it’s like to singe their fingertips as President Trump impulsively follows his instincts, as Ben Caspit reports in AL Monitor:

It took Netanyahu three long days to release his feeble condemnation of the Turkish attack [on the Syrian Kurds]. They were three very difficult days, as befits the difficult process of waking up about President Donald Trump. The president’s surprising announcement that the United States would immediately withdraw from Syria, followed by the no less sudden Turkish invasion of the Kurdish region, dealt the death blow to Israel’s hopes and expectations regarding its northern front.

“We’ve been left all alone now,” a high-ranking defense official admitted to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “The strategic balance of power is shifting right before our eyes. The bad guys won, and the good guys are abandoning us. Now, Israel is left almost on its own to deal with the powerful Turkish-Russian-Iranian axis.” …

Israel is finally waking up, and it is a painful process. It took no time at all for Trump, once deemed a fervent lover of Zion if not the Messiah himself, to be recast as someone who is distancing himself from Israel. It is sadly amusing to listen to the Likud’s spokespersons cringe and talk in circles when asked about the sudden American withdrawal from Syria, the abandonment of the Kurds and the president’s desperate efforts to court Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

Perhaps a trifle of schadenfreude on Caspit’s part, but quite understandable. It’s also not surprising to see his description of Likud apologists as speaking in circles, because the intersection between reality and ideologies inconsistent with reality often leads to nonsense, an intellectual stutter and collapse as the mind seeks to reconcile two fundamentally incompatible concepts. We’ve seen this from our own band of extremists of late with regards to President Trump’s solicitation for assistance from the Chinese in finding dirt on the Biden family:

Sen. Marco Rubio said last Friday that President Trump was not being serious when he said the Chinese government should open an investigation into Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, in connection with a 2013 trip to the country.

The Florida senator, speaking with reporters the day after Trump made his pitch to the Chinese, suggested the press should do a better job of determining when the president is playing the role of a joker. [South Florida Sun-Sentinel]

Anyone who saw President Trump’s performance is well aware that Trump was desperate and not engaged in humorous street theater. Yet, here’s Senator Rubio (R-FL), burdened with the ideological task of proclaiming the essential correctness of his President because, well, he’s Party leader, making himself into a laughingstock because he hasn’t the spine to stand up and say, Enough.

Treating people as mere tools, whether they’re named Trump or Doe, is a dangerous vocation because, unlike that hammer, people are agents, and whether they have a hidden agenda or just problems with impulse control, you may get something other than planned.

And that’s the a big problem for the Israeli right.

Classic Descriptive Prose

Republican national strategist Rick Wilson wrote a classic description of President Trump in The Daily Beast a few days back that I missed. It starts off with a bang of a title:

Trump Is Going to Burn Down Everything and Everyone, and Republicans, That Means You

And continues onwards:

Donald Trump’s Oval Office performance-art masterpiece Wednesday was one for the ages, a pity-party, stompy-foot screech session by President Snowflake von Pissypants, the most put-upon man ever to hold the highest office in the land. If you watched his nationally televised press conference, Trump’s shrill, eye-popping hissy fit scanned like the end of a long, coke-fueled bender where the itchy, frenzied paranoia is dry-humping the last ragged gasps of the earlier party-powder fun.

Between calling Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) a panoply of Trumpish insults (and for the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee to be held for treason), engaging in his usual hatred of the press, talking about Mike Pompeo’s intimate undergarments, and quite obviously scaring the shit out of Finnish President Sauli Niinisto—who looked like he was the very unwilling star of an ISIS hostage video—Trump spent the day rapidly decompensating, and it was a hideous spectacle. All the Maximum Leader pronunciamentos won’t change the reality that Donald John Trump, 45th president of the United States, has lost his shit.

It’s really worth a full read, too, regardless of political persuasion, given Wilson’s status as a Republican insider:

In private, Republicans are in the deepest despair of the Trump era. They’ve got that hang-dog, dick-in-the-dirt fatalism of men destined to die in a meaningless battle in a pointless war. They’ve abandoned all pretense of recapturing the House, their political fortunes in the states are crashing and burning, and the stock-market bubble they kept up as a shield against the downsides of Trump—“but muh 401(k)!”—is popping.

You want to know why so few Republicans have held town-hall meetings since early 2017? Because Trump is the cancer they deny is consuming them from the inside out. They see the political grave markers of 42 of their GOP House colleagues—and several hundred down-ballot Republicans—booted from office since 2017 and know that outside of the deepest red enclaves, they’re salesmen for a brand no one is buying.

It’s a reminder of the essential bankruptcy of the Trump “ideology,” isn’t it? Faced with a probably hopeless situation brought on by Trump’s impulsiveness and amateurism, and the general Republican inadequate understanding of ethics and morals, they appear to be caving in frustration.

Oh, sure, they continue to deploy Trumpian tactics in defense: spreading lies about Representative Schiff and various Senators who may become the next Democratic nominee for a Presidential slot that’s looking increasingly like a lost cause for the Republicans, the classic projection attack for which Trump has become famous (“No, you’re the Russian puppet!” he viciously spat at Clinton at one debate).

But, much like a human being faced with a repeat infection, the electorate is becoming less and less vulnerable to the crazy assertions, no matter how authoritatively pressed by Trump and his proxies, and we’re learning to check the facts ourselves, or to wait for the professional fact-checkers to make a determination.

Oh, sure, not all of a us. Politics is a messy business, and some folks are swayed by preconceptions, emotions, and desperate wishes – but most of us are catching on. And that will be the death of the Trumpian ideology, because that’s all it really was: lie your way to the top. Deny, deny, deny.

American media has come to realize that facts and truth are more important than politeness and hurt feelings, and that’s a good thing for all of us, regardless of who’s doing the lying, or who’s doing the listening.

Oh, and read the rest of the Wilson article. I loved it.

When The Minions Are Scratching Their Heads, Ctd

I see the aforementioned Ambassador Sondland is, in apparent violation of Administration directives, planning to answer the subpoena to appear before House Intelligence, Foreign Affairs and Oversight and Reform committees to give a deposition, after having first declined same. While he cannot deliver documents without State Department permission, he will still testify.

Or so his lawyers say. Their statement is decidedly odd:

“Notwithstanding the State Department’s current direction to not testify, Ambassador Sondland will honor the Committees’ subpoena, and he looks forward to testifying on Thursday,” Sondland’s lawyers said in a statement. “Ambassador Sondland has at all times acted with integrity and in the interests of the United States. He has no agenda apart from answering the Committees’ questions fully and truthfully.” [WaPo]

We have to be assured he has no agenda? On the other hand, Lewandowski’s testimony was full of it, so maybe they have a point.

So what does this change of heart mean?

  1. He’s there to say “I decline to answer…” a lot. But why? Everyone else is declining to appear, so why have Sondland appear but say nothing?
  2. To say there was no threat, no quid pro quo, nothing of an impeachable nature in Trump’s actions with regard to Ukraine. Sondland is generally considered to be an ally of President Trump, as he received the Ambassadorship as a prize for making a big donation, which is not an unusual practice in any Administration, so he might make this sort of deposition falsely, out of loyalty. But then he’s running the risk of being caught lying to Congress, which could land him time in prison. Why take the chance?
  3. That Sondland is considered an ally mostly refers to history; he may have lost his fondness as he became familiar with Trump and his methods. So maybe Sondland plans to spill the beans. Sondland probably doesn’t need the money, so if he’s fired, he won’t care.

My money, which is a very small wager, is on #2. Whether it’s true or not, if he testifies otherwise, he’ll enter the criminal part of the scandal.

And if he requests immunity? My oh my!

Let’s Go Over That Again

From a promotional mailing from the University of Minnesota to alumnae:

Regenerative Thinking Lecture
Member offerTuesday, Oct. 22
Adopting a regenerative way of thinking can reestablish the indelible bonds that connect everyone and everything on the planet. We can and must create places and lifestyles that are better for people and the planet, and they will be better than what we settle for now.

So, if they’re indelible bonds, why do we need to reestablish them? Or did someone change definitions on me?

And this from a major University, no less. For shame.

Go Penzey’s!

Not all corporations come from the Big, Evil Corporation Factory:

On Wednesday, Axios published a list of the entities spending the most money on Facebook ads on both sides of the impeachment debate. …

But one name jumped off the screen for its sheer one-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-other factor: Penzeys Spices, the nation’s largest spice retailer, had dropped $92,000 from Sept. 29 to Oct. 5 on ads championing impeachment. That was more than self-funding millionaire Steyer, more than hard-charging Warren — more than anyone else other than Trump. [WaPo]

I wonder if they see it as civic engagement – or purely survival. Or possibly just combining political judgment with humor:

In the interview he says he isn’t afraid to disagree with potential customers, though he hopes that even people who don’t agree with his politics could still like his products: “Just because you have bad taste in politics, why should you have bad-tasting food?”

I’m glad to say we buy from Penzey’s from time to time, especially exotic spices.

Imaginary Interviews

“Folks, this is reporter Danforth Twiggler, and we’re here three months in the future, January 4th of 2020. As you all know, former President Trump was just convicted in his impeachment trial, and we’ve been fortunate to snag an interview with Republican Senator Clutching F. Power of >crackle-fade-out<!”

“Senator, thank you for speaking with us.  Senator Power, what factor, in the trial that ended yesterday in the conviction of President Trump, made you decide to vote against him?”

“Thank you for having me, Dan. Dan, for me, it began with the corruption evidenced in his ‘Ukraine call’, his crass use of the Oval Office to enrich himself, and ended with the evidence of his obeying the orders from the Russian state. He may have claimed that Russia was our friend, but we knew better!”

“So Representative Pelosi and her team were effective in their prosecutorial role?”

“>cough< I felt the evidence spoke for itself.”

“Thank you, sir. So the revelations of his payoffs to his paramours to keep them quiet during the campaign didn’t bother you?”

“Well, Dan, naturally, as a proud Evangelist, I was of course disgusted by his behavior, but he was doing God’s work with the judiciary -”

“You then agree with Pastor Jeffress, Ralph Reed, and others that Trump should have been given a free pass since he was touched by God?”

“Well, no, he was done with his work -”

“And God just throws away his tools when he’s done with him? Very interesting. I would not care to work for God. But going back to his attempts to buy the silence of his paramours, we knew about these virtually by the time he was taking office, and yet you didn’t comment on this criminal behavior -”

“I, I didn’t believe it was all that important -”

“Then there was the ten reports of obstruction in the Mueller Report -”

“What obstruction? I, I never read the damn, errrr, darn thing anyway!”

“And why not, Senator Power?”

“God would never permit his chosen tool to, to, and that report was therefore blasphemy!”

“And, yet, here we are. Senator, the President, excuse me, former President is widely seen as having displayed evidence of his miscreancy early in his tenure. I speak, of course, of such incidents as his unrecorded interviews with President Putin, his revelations of highly classified materials in public, and his infelicities in the selection of his Cabinet secretaries, and, oh, just his general incompetency. Given all this, if he had been impeached and convicted much earlier in his tenure, isn’t it true that the United States would have had a much more quiet and productive period?”

“Not at all, the judiciary -”

“Even with Vice President -”

“THE JUDGES! For they will wield the sword to redeem us -”

“So, Senator, you admit that you put your own self-interest ahead of the Nation’s -”

“They’re the same!”

“Thank you, Senator, for explaining your Party’s reluctance to to remove the worst President in modern memory. Tell me, sir, is it true that you were fired from your last three jobs for gross incompetency before you became a cleric and started a megachurch in – ah, he just stalked away, folks, I suppose discussing competency is just over the line. This is …”


With apologies to the late Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ), and I suspect the reporter was from the Center for Inquiry, a freethinker organization that spends a lot of time safeguarding the secular nature of our government, when it can.

My point, of course, is that most of the Republicans in Congress have wedded themselves to Trump, and to vote for impeachment or conviction would, in effect, be a vote to do the same to themselves and their badly broken ideology or religious convictions.

So, despite the happy words of some pundits, I don’t see it happening.

Expressing Disapproval

Having watched just a little bit of the news coverage of the events surrounding the Trump campaign rally tonight in Minneapolis, MN, I was struck by how the need to express disagreement with Trump and his policies seems to be fulfilled by anger and violence.

It’s minor violence, it’s true, but it’s worth remembering that analysis of the typical Trump supporter has included conclusions that there’s a fear of societal change, and that the political opposition will indulge in violence. The first, of course, is true, as people try to change society to be more in tune with justice, but the second need not be necessary – and I feel those who threw objects at departing attendees and the police really played into the hands of the right-wing extremist leaders. In their missives to their followers, they emphasize the violent dangers of the left, fallacious as they are, and the left did nothing to falsify those charges.

Yet, I do sympathize with the protesters. Trump is glaringly obviously incompetent, an amateur who is doing tremendous damage to the reputation and tangible quality of the country. He has no concept of how ethics in government employees, such as himself, should work; he has, instead, imported his own bankrupt moral system in which he constantly seeks personal advancement into the Oval Office. He may even be a Russian asset. He’s become the emblem of how bad a President should not be. That our fellow Americans can embrace a liar, cheat, bungling fool, who is so bad that he doesn’t even recognize it, is infuriating.

But I fear tonight’s violence will only reinforce the Trumpist base’s decision to support the man.

Here’s what I would have savored seeing: a good-natured, old-fashioned shaming through laughter. When Trump came in, and when he left, all the protesters should have pointed a finger and laughed. When the attendees came out, seeking only to get in their vehicles and drive away, rather than yelling and screaming and throwing rocks at their cars, a good old-fashioned laughing might have been more effective. Perhaps call them suckers, just to get their attention, but nothing worse. Assail them with gales of laughter. Violence hardens attitudes, it persuades only the timid, and frightened, and that’s not a big piece of the Trumpist base.

A psychologist could address this more effectively, but the driving emotional need for Trump is respect, or admiration, for himself. As I understand it, he’s always yearned for it, and never quite gotten it from the creamy elite of New York City.

But if a bunch of Minnesota yahoos had just pointed and laughed at him and his followers, not only would his followers feel less physically threatened, while wondering what they’ve missed, but perhaps Trump himself would have taken a real hit.

They’re not yelling and screaming, they’re just laughing at me. Just laughing and pointing, practically crying they’re laughing so hard. They have no respect.

And would he continue to go on? Hard to say. But it would have been more respectful of our shared bond as Americans, legal or not, than this night of hatred and, well, stupidity.

A missed opportunity.

The Timing Will Be Selected

If you haven’t read about the shift in public sentiment concerning the Impeachment Inquiry into the conduct of President, this might brighten or darken your day:

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll shows a startling shift in public sentiment in favor of the decision by House Democrats to open an impeachment inquiry into President Trump’s blatantly improper request that the Ukraine government help him dig up dirt on his leading presidential rival, former vice president Joe Biden.

The poll found nearly 6 in 10 of those surveyed support the investigation. About half of the public wants to see Trump removed from office over the “favor” he requested during that now-infamous July 25 telephone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. [WaPo]

But how fast will things move? There are two factors that I can see:

First is the accumulation of the necessary facts and witnesses to make a convincing case for the public. Not the Senate, but the public, because public opinion will certainly influence the actions of conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans, and while the latter is as scarce as hen’s teeth, the former do exist and occupy seats in districts which have, and may still, incline towards President Trump. They still need persuasion, at least in the House, to vote for impeachment.

The second factor, and it’s contingent on the first being achieved, is the judgment of Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY). Remember their destruction of Trump over the national emergency shutdown? I think they’re once again maneuvering, this time with the intent of taking over the Senate in the next election. How? By putting Senate Republicans in a box with no exit and filling it with sea water.

The box will be the question of whether or not they should vote for the conviction of President Trump on articles of Impeachment. And the sea water?

The electorate.

I think Pelosi and Schumer will time this in such a way that the Articles of Impeachment  are presented to the Senate as public opinion pulls as strongly as possible towards conviction. This will leave the Republican Senators will an unpalatable choice of

  1. Vote for conviction of an incompetent boob who has delivered the goods on the judiciary – at least they’d like to think so – but has otherwise damaged the country, perhaps irreparably. The Trump base, which makes up a majority of the Republican Party right now, and would remain a substantial force in the future, would take electoral vengeance by attempting to remove every single one of the ‘traitors’ from their seats, possibly even through ignominious recall elections. Of course, this could result in the election of Democratic Senators, but Trumpists do tend to be overconfident.
  2. Vote against conviction and lose the support of most independents. Independents are already suspicious of Republicans due to the general incompetence of Trump, the Kavanaugh confirmation, the failure of the Senate to rein Trump in, and those with longer memories will remember the failed fight to replace the ACA, which continues to grow in popularity, and the Tax Reform bill of 2017. Republicans cannot win without the support of at least one quarter, and in some cases much larger percentages of the independents.

Behind the scenes, there will be immense pressure on Trump to resign before the Senators are forced to vote and face the ire of those damn voters. Will Trump crack and do it? I don’t know. He may prefer the bravado of winning in the court of the Senate, which he may believe to be impregnable, or he may fear the indelible stain on his family reputation of having been convicted.

But Pelosi and Schumer are, or should be, the directors of this little stage play.

Stay tuned.

That Little Vent On The Top Of My Head

I don’t read much Facebook, but even that little bit yields up the classic What About The Democrats! argument, and I’ve had it.

Look, whatabout-ism doesn’t work with me. We’re not measuring Trump against the lies of the Democrats, the Socialists, or for that matter the Nazis.

We’re measuring him against the Constitution.

That’s the only measuring stick that matters anymore[1].

And he’s coming up short.


1 Sure, we could talk about Obama and the Constitution, but, guess what? The Republicans had 6 years of dominance of Congress and never tried to impeach him. The actions of the Republicans tell us a lot more about Obama and, for that matter, H. “turns out she’s clean as a whistle, thanks to Rep Trey Gowdy, et al” Clinton, than does their rhetoric or their brazen apologists.

Shouldering The Blame

Steve Webb of Yates Webb Engineers is really pissed off, and vents in The RIBA Journal:

If I drive a Range Rover to the supermarket I produce about 400g of CO2. Should we measure environmental morality in Range Rover Shopping Trips – RSTs? An RST is an ugly spectacle: me a paunchy middle aged guy, my wrap-around shades, in a ‘commanding’ driving position, nonchalantly palming my giant car between trolley-pushing pedestrians in the Sainsbury’s car park. Meanwhile in a studio nearby, a designer, loving the precision of razor sharp edges, draws a gorgeous slender bookshelf out of steel. It weighs 500kg, making about 1.5t of CO2, so jot him down for 3,750 RSTs: a daily Range Rover drive to Sainsbury’s and back every day for 10 years – and that’s just a morning’s work for him. An engineer churns out the same old steel picture frame instead of a timber one – that’s 2t of steel and 6t of CO2: she’s on 15,000 RSTs. A planner that insists on a brick facade produces 253t of CO2 – 632,500 RSTs. Bricks are bad. They’re baked, doh! If a contractor, balking at the unknown, persuades a client to make a block of flats concrete instead of cross laminated timber that’s 2,300t of CO2. Now we’re on 5.76 million RSTs. No matter that we’re peddling around on our Bromptons. We are actually all driving the Range Rover to Sainsbury’s… a lot.

It’s hard to swallow that we [the construction industry] are personally at fault. How can we rightminded modern people be perpetrating such a thing? Another architect told me recently that many buildings are not designed by architects, implying that these ‘other’ buildings are the problem. Barratt Homes’ houses are normally wood-framed! I’m sorry to say the ‘new London vernacular’ architect-designed end of the housing spectrum is the brick and concrete, carbon-heavy, one. Go Barratt!

As a practice transitions from morally acceptable to morally unacceptable due to increasing world-wide population densities and improving, but energy-demanding, quality of life in a world where morals are thought to be unchanging absolutes, but are not, it’s actually not surprising. Our perceptual systems are not built for it, our mindsets are against it. Good for Yates Webb to recognize the problem in their own backyard.

And what is Yates Webb doing? A statement:

Webb Yates Engineers has signed and fully supports the UK Structural Engineers Declare Climate & Biodiversity Emergency in addition to the Civil Engineer, Building Services Engineer and Architecture declaration.

We understand that environmentally conscientious design is imperative and we acknowledge that the construction industry currently contributes close to 40 percent of global emissions. We believe it is critical to be part of the solution and are committed to strengthening our professional practice in order to create engineering outcomes that have a positive impact on the natural environment.

We encourage all engineering professionals to sign the declaration 

Some woodwork:

And a spectacular stone staircase:

Too bad they’re UK, not Minnesota, based.

Belated Movie Reviews

The boar menaces the bore. Now if only this had taken place in a bore-hole, and it was all about a ice sample.

We recently viewed the silent film The Cat And The Canary (1927), and while we longed to like it, I think it’s cultural attitudes leave it too dated to appreciate. In this movie about the disposition of the estate of a man, mixed with an escaped convict, and a hint of insanity, it seemed the only woman with any hint of a backbone ultimately didn’t really figure in the climax of the movie; she merely stalks through the story with a broody look on her face. The element of farce was off-putting, while the heroine, who’s little more than a canvas for the projection of public attitudes of the day, left me cold, and I even considered cheering on the big clawed hand which hovered over her shoulder.

Characters were not differentiated, themes were not strongly developed, and two days later we were confusing it with elements of some other recently viewed movies.

In a word, forgettable.

Three Measuring Sticks, Ctd

Remember the three 2019 gubernatorial elections? Louisiana’s is a “jungle primary to a runoff,” where the runoff is skipped if anyone wins the jungle primary with more than 50% of the vote. Emerson College Polling is reporting Governor Edwards (D-LA) is not only easily ahead of the two Republicans who appear to be splitting the conservative vote, but doing well enough he might win outright in the primary:

A final Emerson College pre-election primary poll in the Louisiana Governor race finds Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards leading with 48% of the vote. Republican Businessman Eddie Rispone and Republican Congressman Ralph Abraham follow in a statistical tie, with 25% and 19% respectively. Independent Gary Landrieu is at 4%, Republican Patrick Landry is at 3% and Democrat Oscar Dantzler at 1%. (Oct 4-7, MM, n=467, +/-4.5%)

If this holds true in the actual primary, then it would indicate a substantial loss of support for Trump, who won the state by 20 points in 2016, and that his endorsement of the two top Republicans is either ineffective, or possibly a strategic error in that it didn’t give clear direction to Trump voters as to who he prefers.

Conclusions are always tentative when proxies are being evaluated, and one must remember Edwards is the incumbent, so none of this is final, but it’s certainly interesting in what it says about Trump support.

Warfare Among The Elite

When it comes to the battle between Congress and President Trump, sometimes even the pundits become a little foreboding. Consider Steve Benen’s recent remarks concerning a recent report issued by the Senate Intel Committee:

The Senate Intelligence Committee issued a bipartisan report yesterday on how Russia used social media as part of the Kremlin-directed attack on the American elections. The document, released by Chairman Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and Vice Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.), made a series of recommendations about new laws to foreign interference, but it also served as an effective indictment against the perpetrators

Steve then notes the White House appears to still be attempting to discredit the notion that Russia interfered in the 2016 Presidential election in Trump’s favor, and the State and Justice Department Secretaries are going out of their way to dispute and discredit these findings.

Which leads to this:

Maybe one of these guys can read the bipartisan findings of the Senate Intelligence Committee? Or does Team Trump assume senators are part of a nefarious scheme?

It’s a little chilling, having read sometime in the last few years of the slaughter of the Roman Senators as the Roman Empire entered a disintegrative phase. While Roman Senators were distinguished by the requirement that their families be part of the elite class, it’s still enough to send a shiver down my spine.