I plan to write a review of Peter Turchin’s War And Peace And War when I finally finish it — soon! — but these two paragraphs, almost certainly written prior to 2006, stood out for the applicability to today’s political polarization, and what may be truly driving same. Turchin’s example scenario dates from Britain and France from the time of Dumas, author of The Three Musketeers. All typos mine.
When one aristocratic faction won, it attempted to completely exclude its rivals. One of the notorious examples of this was the situation in England between 1617 and 1628, when the faction led by George Villiers, the duke of Buckingham, managed to monopolize the court’s patronage. In his novel, Dumas paints a fairly favorable portrait of Buckingham, but in real life this royal favorite was a pretty unsavory character who used his power to unscrupulously enrich himself and his cohorts. In the words of the historian David Loades, “The ascendancy of Buckingham transformed abuse into a scandal of systematic exploitation.”
We have already seen how declining economic fortunes of aristocrats create the climate conducive to interpersonal and interfactional conflict. It is important to stress that the purely materialistic calculation — “I lack sufficient funds to support the life style to which I am entitled by birth, and I will obtain this money by fore if necessary” — is just one possible motive driving violence, and not necessarily the most powerful. … [War and Peace and War, Ch. 10: “The Matthew Principle”, Peter Turchin (p. 277)]
I cannot help but note how Trump and so many that have come to cluster around him – Pompeo, Ross, Pruitt, and Bannon are just a bare few of the names that come to mind – are frantically attempting to build fortunes, both monetary and in terms of prestige, in this time of Trump. They seem to be, in Turchin’s terms, to be of a class desperate to become aristocrats – or, worse, striving to remain the same. I suspect that’s Trump’s driving force, and, given that class membership is often based on perception, it may lend an additional reason to his frantic determination to not have his tax returns see the light of day. If he’s seen as broke, then he’s not an aristocrats, or what we call “upper-crust” these days. Indeed, given the head-start he was handed by his father, if he’s underwater, then for all of his big talk, he’s nothing but a loser.
That would explain a lot.
But the future, if historical events are rhymed[1], is quite alarming. Turchin observes internecine combat in the form of duels, assassinations, murders, and wars, happening to the Romans, the French, the English, and the Russians, as overpopulation puts pressure at all levels of the citizenry.
The future may turn out to be only morbidly interesting. Let’s hope someone figures out a way to reach other worlds in a way that is not ruinously expensive.
1 “History never repeats itself, but it rhymes.” Author uncertain.
