SCARING AWAY THE HAWKS
The Republicans in the Senate, and the House, and the White House, for that matter, have another headline with which to contend:
The U.S. national debt is likely to surpass $40 trillion this week, months earlier than forecasters previously expected in part because of billions of dollars in lost revenue from President Donald Trump’s invalidated tariffs.
The lost revenue has forced the Treasury Department to borrow more rapidly to cover the nation’s bills: Six months ago, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that total borrowing would top out at $39.4 trillion this fiscal year. But on Monday, Treasury reported that the debt stood at $39.9 trillion and counting. [WaPo]
And thus the increase in T-bill yields.
The financial hawks in the GOP should all be fluttering from the nest. The Senate GOP caucus is discovering loyalty to a Party with a dementia patient as their titular head comes with a high price – and association with, ah, dementia.
What will they do?
THE SPATTER OF DUNG ON YOUR WINDSHIELD
Or, that tornado spun through the pigpen last week.
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On The Issues: Angela Nixon (D-FL).
The biggest election news of the week was the primary victory of Florida state Senator Angela Nixon (D) over Alexander Vindman (D), 55.9% – 44.1%, on 18 August. The latter is the gentleman who dared to blow the whistle on President Trump concerning his attempt to smear Joe Biden via Ukrainian President Zelenskyy through blackmail, which lead to his first impeachment.
There’s been chatter and theories about Nixon’s victory, but notably, and I’m not the most wide-read person you read, in fact not much at all, but one theory for Vindman’s loss that I’ve not heard is the tactics used by both Parties over the last few years – infiltrate, or contaminate if you like, the opposition’s primary election so that an opponent thought to be less capable or appealing is selected in the primary. That may have happened here, although the margin in this race was roughly 146,000 votes. But why would Nixon be seen as vulnerable? Nixon has had a history of involvement with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which may work against her in a State with an elderly population. They’ve been crowing about this and other victories, but they may be setting themselves up for a heavy fall.
Or political analyst Marc Caputo may have it right:
“I think it’s probably the biggest upset in modern Florida Democratic politics; I can’t remember anything like this,” Caputo said. “Alex Vindman ran perhaps the worst campaign I’ve ever seen statewide in Florida — it was so bad.“ [RawStory]
I hope this isn’t just another addition to the saga of the Florida Democrats’ incompetency. But it might be.
The Republicans were no surprise as incumbent Senator Moody (R) took just less than 80% of the Republican primary vote. In raw numbers, she received 1,299,949 votes, while the entire Democratic field received 1,233,860 votes. Nixon has a cliff to climb.
- The 18 August jungle primary in Alaska, in which the top four finishers are eligible for the general election, yielded former Rep Mary Peltola (D) with 48.0% of the primary votes, Senator Sullivan (R) with 42.8%, Dan Sullivan (R) with 2.4%, and David Leslie (D) with 1.1%. There were sixteen candidates qualified for the primary.
Senator Sullivan must be feeling the pressure because, even with the non-Peltola votes, he’d come up short. I predict he’ll be putting space between himself and President Trump in an effort to appear to have some independence. But former Rep Peltola (D) has the advantage, as she’s not carrying the burden of a Trump endorsement.
- The 18 August primary election in Wyoming yielded the expected: Rep Harriet Hageman (R) winning the Republican nomination for the retiring Senator Lummis’ (R) seat. She is a lawyer, and won 62.2% of the Republican primary election vote, or 24,913 votes. The winner of the Democratic primary election, and now the Democratic nominee, is former member of the Wyoming House of Representatives James Byrd (D). He won with 77.9% of the vote, or 3,110 votes – yes, it’s a small, small State. He is a geologist by trade.
Good luck to Mr Byrd. He’s going to need it.
- Pundits are convinced Senator D. Graham (R-SC), the Trump-endorsee who is in a primary election runoff with Rep Ralph Norman (R-SC) for the Republican nomination for the open Senate seat previously held by her late brother, Lindsay, in South Carolina, has blundered horrifically:
During a debate Tuesday night between Sen. Darline Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, and Rep. Ralph Norman, Graham claimed ignorance when asked about the national security significance of Taiwan and the South China Sea.
“I’m just going to be honest here,” Darline Graham said. “I’m not that informed on national security.”
Some in the audience booed. Gasps were audible. You can hear them here. [WaPo]
Is it a blunder? It depends on who you ask. Someone who hasn’t seen the debate nor consider it important will give you a blank look, or a horse’s laugh and an exclamation they know who the President has endorsed. Folks who think the Constitution hardly gives any role to Congress when it comes to national security, even if it’s Congress that declares War and not the President, may just shrug. Those who know the late Senator L. Graham (R) was heavily involved in national security, like many Senators, will be horrified. The same applies to the electorate, but independents may be a bit more
pickyinformed than the GOP primary runoff voters.How much does Senator D. Graham understand?
She reportedly told reporters after the debate that South Carolinians are more “worried about their pocketbooks more than they’re worried about the South China Sea, quite honestly.”
As rising prices are intimately linked to foreign affairs, and therefore national security, I’d say she doesn’t understand at all. And then there’s this display of foreign relations incompetence on Fox News, which may result in even wider coverage. Her rival, Rep Norman, may be licking his lips at this juncture.
This all leads up to the question of why did so many Republicans, including the President, endorse Darlene Graham for an elected term as Senator? It’s not for her expertise, it appears. Is it because she’ll be easy to control?
And someone ought to ask the same questions of the Democratic nominee, Dr Annie Andrews (D). What does it say about voters if she has answers similar to Senator D. Graham?
- In Michigan a TIPP poll is giving Abdul El-Sayed (D) a 45% – 42% lead over former Rep Mike Rogers (R), with a credibility interval of ±2.6 points. However, the poll is sponsored by the League of American Workers, and TIPP only had a 1.8 out of 3 point rating from FiveThirtyEight last I saw, so I feel some doubt.
The AARP hired Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to run a Michigan poll, and for Senate they find Mr El-Sayed at 48%, Mr Rogers at 47%, or a dead heat, with a margin of error of ±3.3 points. The performance of these two firms in combination is not clear to me, however. All I can say is that the numbers are plausible.
Susquehanna Polling and Research, last rated a respectable 2.3/3 by FiveThirtyEight, gives Mr El-Sayed a 46% – 39% lead, with a margin of error of ±3.46 points. Money finding:
Despite public media reports that El-Sayed is facing a divided Democratic electorate after a bruising and closely contested August 4th primary, he leads Rogers 91%-0% with self-identified Democrats and leads Rogers 46%-24% with Independents and unaffiliated voters. [Rogers leads El-Sayed 90%-2% with Republicans.] Another strong indication the Democrat base has quickly rallied around El-Sayed is that he not only leads Rogers 92%-0% with Democrats who identify with the progressive wing of the Democrat party (which make up 47% of all Democrats sampled), but El-Sayed also leads Rogers handily among Democrats who do not (89%-0%).
If El-Sayed can maintain that unity among Democrats then he should win. Also notable? The poll sponsor is RealClearPolitics, a conservative site. Susquehanna is delivering an undesirable result to their sponsor, and that says something.
- A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll for the Minnesota Senate seat is giving the lead to Lt Governor Flanagan (D) over Michelle Tafoya (R) 46% – 41%. This is somewhat closer than I expected, but perhaps Tafoya’s sportscasting career and/or declaration of independence from the extremist/Trumpist right, see above link, is having more effect than I expected.
- Apparently, the report of a poll by 2040 Strategy Group of Arkansas voters in the last Campaign Update has released an avalanche of polls concerning the normally quiescent Arkansas. As a reminder, that poll, sponsored by challenger Hallie Shoffner (D) by this new-to-me pollster, gave incumbent Senator Cotton (R) a mere 46% – 43% lead, within the margin of error. In comparison, Cotton’s last election, six years ago, he won by 33+ points against a Libertarian; the Democrat withdrew under dubious circumstances. Senator Boozman (R), the other Senator from Arkansas, won by a similar margin four years ago.
Another unknown pollster, J. L. Partners, has entered the fray with a poll claiming Senator Cotton’s lead is 51% – 35%, or 16 points, with a margin of error of ±3.5 points.
And, in a veritable conclave of unknown pollsters, Hendrix College, located in Arkansas, has issued a poll showing Shoffner leading Senator Cotton, 47.4% – 44%; Jeff Wadlin (L) has 2.95%, and Undecided has 5.65%. The margin of error is a somewhat large ±4.7 points. This poll is sponsored by Talk Business & Politics (TBP); I have no idea concerning the political predilections of Hendrix nor TBP, and a quick look around the Web reveals little. Send a link if you have a source. However, and quite notably,
Robert Coon, managing partner with Impact Management Group, which works with Republican political candidates, helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:
Donald Trump’s record low approval ratings are impacting Republican candidates across the country as well as in Arkansas, including Senator Tom Cotton. Democrat Hallie Shoffner is receiving 94% of the vote in this survey from voters who strongly disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president – a group which makes up 48% of the survey respondents.
And he has more to say, so follow the TBP link, above, to see that, and additional analysis by Dr. Jay Barth, active in Democratic Party politics. It appears TBP is striving to be balanced.
- Texas GOP nominee for Senate Ken Paxton (R) appears to be in quicksand:
President Donald Trump is expected to attend a Republican National Committee fundraiser on Aug. 27 in Houston, with the goal of raising much-needed funds for Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general running for the Senate, according to details of the event shared with MS NOW. [MS NOW]
I wonder how much of this shortage of funds can be blamed on profligacy, on expenditures to beat Senator Cornyn, and how much of this is the reluctance of donors to be associated with the nominee, Paxton, whose personal reputation is in absolute tatters. That latter bit applies to President Trump as well, so it’ll be the tattered trumpeting the tattered. My apologies if you just snorkeled.
- A Saint Anselm College/University of New Hampshire poll shows, for the race for the to-be-open New Hampshire Senate seat, Rep Pappas (D) and former Senator John Sununu (R) with commanding leads in their respective primaries, said primary elections scheduled for 8 September. The same poll gives Rep Pappas a 48% – 41% lead over Sununu, 11% Unsure, which appears to be the same result as the last poll from this pollster pair, back in April. Glancing at favorability, they do not seem far apart.
- High Point University, using YouGov data, finds former Gov Roy Cooper (D) leading Michael Whatley (R) 50% – 45% in the race for the to-be-open North Carolina Senate seat. Is this race tightening?
- If you have a data center controversy in your State, and a Senate GOP candidate closely tied to President Trump, this might be of interest:
The Senate GOP campaign arm, in a private memo to top AI companies, warns that toxic views of U.S. data centers are killing the party’s chances of holding a vital seat in Ohio.
- In the memo, obtained by Axios, the National Republican Senatorial Committee says Democrats have made data centers a “centerpiece” of their campaign to defeat Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) — and that it’s working.
- “If he loses and data centers get the blame, politicians across the country will take notice — and they will not go near the next one,” the memo says. “This has become a sleeper issue for the entire election cycle.” [Axios]
The problem for the GOP is that President Trump won’t hesitate to take a bribe from the artificial intelligence industry, and without regard to how that bribe may impact the Republican Party. And he’s backing the industry, not the voters. In this case, Ohio Senator Husted’s (R) in peril of losing his seat to former Senator Sherrod Brown (D), and in a race that has been tight, according to the pollsters, even a few hundred voters who feel excluded from the decision-making process concerning data centers, and thus embittered, may sink Husted’s election efforts.
Minnesota also has a controversy, but GOP nominee Michelle Tafoya has already declared her independence from the President, so it may not have much impact.
- Nebraska’s beef industry may be imperiled by another President Trump decision driven by self-interest, possibly this time of his ego:
President Donald Trump angered the American beef industry and Republican lawmakers from Western states on Friday when he announced a plan to lower the price of imported beef.“I’m extremely disappointed by this decision from the White House,” Republican Sen. Debbie Fischer of Nebraska wrote in a post on X. “We all want lower grocery prices, but as I’ve said for months, we cannot do it at the expense of American producers.”
Fischer, who is a cattle rancher, said that “flooding the market with foreign beef hurts our livestock industry.” [MS NOW]
Are there so many beef producers that this matters? Not directly. However, indirectly there may be enough to drive voters to punish the GOP for electing a goober to the Presidency.
- Is the Bullfinch Group accurate? I find this poll hard to credit:
When voters are asked to choose directly between the incumbent Republican and the Independent challenger, Achilles surges past [Senator Risch (R)]:
- Todd Achilles (I): 38%
- Jim Risch (R): 33%
- Not sure: 29%
Achilles commanding 38% support—and leading a three-term incumbent by 5 percentage points—proves that his independent platform is uniting voters across party lines.
Does it prove it? Is this trustworthy? Only time will reveal the matter in its glory.
AND THAT’S IT!
I’m tired of typing, and the news has been consumed. It feels like Arkansas and Idaho may be joining the ranks of possible flips, which surprises me, even though I’ve been predicting a GOP collapse for months. The actions of the White House have been fully congruent with Amateur Hour Arrogance, and we can expect yet more as we approach the elections.
