Over the last week some more Senate campaign polls have been released, which I’ve been gathering up for one big post.
NBC News/Marist, via The Detroit News, has found that in Arizona, Kelly (D) leads appointed incumbent McSally (R) 53% to 41%. That 12 point lead is well outside the margin of error of 4.1 points. Public Policy Polling has similar results of 51% to 42%, CNN gives Kelly a 50-43 point lead, and Morning Consult gives Kelly a huge lead of 16 points, 52 percent to 36 percent. That last one sounds like an outlier.
NBC News is reporting another NBC News/Marist poll finds Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham leads GOP Sen. Thom Tillis by 9 points, with the backing of 50 percent of voters, compared to Tillis’ 41 percent. Public Policy Polling has Cunningham up by 8 points, 48% to 40%. Morning Consult has a similar lead for Cunningham, 46-37%. It’d be more comforting to see Cunningham solidly break the 50% barrier.
In Maine, Public Policy Polling has the least loyal GOP Senator, Susan Collins, still behind State Rep and Speaker of the House Sara Gideon (D), 42%-47%; a Colby College poll gives Gideon a 44-39% lead. In past elections, Collins has won her seat by comfortable 20-30 point margins, so this is an unfamiliar position for Collins. Her current TrumpScore of 67.5%, the lowest of all GOP Senators, doesn’t cover up the fact that she voted against conviction in the impeachment trial of the President, asserting “I believe that the president has learned from this case.” Her lack of judgment and her vote to confirm Justice Kavanaugh appears to be coming back to haunt her.
OnTheIssues: John James.
Michigan’s Senator Gary Peters (D) retains a 10 point lead over challenger John James (R), according to a Fox News Poll, while Morning Consult suggests a larger lead, 49 percent to 35 percent., and CNN gives Peters a big 54-38% lead. Recent reports indicate the Trump campaign, down 49-41 in the Fox News poll, has withdrawn from the state. Will this help or hurt James, a businessman and former Army Ranger Army veteran who is Ranger-qualified (this is not the same as being an Army ranger – my mistake)? It’s not clear to me that James is a Trump devotee; his front campaign page does not mention the President, and OnTheIssue’s analysis of the scant data available on James (he’s never held elective office) suggests he’s not a hard right conservative. So far, it does not appear the independents of Michigan have found him appealing. It may be that James has chosen a poor time to be a Republican candidate. Running for a top legislative position without prior experience may also be working against him, as the Amateur ethic finally appears to be flaming out.
There is no question of amateurs in Colorado, where former Gov Hickenlooper (D) is leading incumbent Senator Gardner (R) 48-42%, according to Morning Consult. At the beginning of the campaign season – the day after the November 2018 election, I think – Gardner was considered to be one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, so his showing against a popular former Governor is actually fairly credible. His TrumpScore is 89.1%, but it’s worth noting that’s over two Congresses; in the current Congress, it’s a much lower 82.9%. He may not be competitive with Senator Collins of Maine in disloyalty to the President, and he did not vote for conviction in the Trump Impeachment proceedings, but claims of independence from Trump cannot quite be dismissed out of hand. Trump is not mentioned on the front page of Gardner’s Senate Campaign page, either. Gardner is one of the most likely incumbents to score a come-from-behind win, even in relatively liberal Colorado, but he has some climbing to do, and has to hope Hickenlooper stumbles.
In Georgia, incumbent Senator Perdue (R) has a lead over challenger Jon Ossoff (D), an investigative journalist with no elective offices to his credit, but it’s not a big lead, according to Morning Consult: 45 percent to 42 percent, which is just within the margin of error. Ossoff does have a history of big fund-raising, which may make for a hair-raising campaign over the next 90-odd days. Perdue’s colleague, appointed incumbent Senator Loeffler (R), faces a special election in the form of a jungle primary, and the only news I’ve seen is that Loeffler’s taking a lot of flak from fellow Republican Rep Doug Collins, a Trump favorite. While Loeffler is unlikely to win reelection, a Collins replacement would be no better.
In South Carolina, ALG Research, for LindseyMustGo.com, finds incumbent Senator Graham (R) ahead of challenger Jaime Harrison, 49-45%. I’m taking this opportunity to extend my condolences to Senator Graham in his loss in the Trump Lickspittle contest, as I believe former Senator and AG Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III, through his pledges of allegiance to the disdainful President Trump, must be declared the victor.
Right here in Minnesota, despite the frantic warning emails from incumbent Senator Tina Smith (D) that challenger and former Rep Jason Lewis (R) is within striking distance, Public Policy Polling gives Senator Smith a comfortable 48%-39% lead. This is in line with the special election Smith won in 2018 as the appointed incumbent, beating hockey name Karin Housley by 11 points, and there’s little reason to believe that Lewis will close the distance before election day.
New Hampshire’s incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D) doesn’t yet have a definitive Republican opponent, but a recent University of New Hampshire poll suggests it may not matter – she holds double-digit leads and more than 50% support over both of her most likely opponents. In my original coverage of this seat, I suggested this might be a race to watch, but it appears Shaheen has matters well in hand.
Finally, the Senate is seen as a critical piece of political landscape by both parties, and Senator McConnell (R), Majority Leader, doesn’t much care for President Trump’s feelings, according to this CNN report:
Sen. Mitch McConnell is allowing Republican Senate candidates to do whatever it takes to salvage their campaigns ahead of what Republicans increasingly fear could be a devastating election for their party.
In recent weeks, the Senate majority leader has become so concerned over Republicans losing control of the Senate that he has signaled to vulnerable GOP senators in tough races that they could distance themselves from the President if they feel it is necessary, according to multiple senior Republicans including a source close to McConnell.
As the CNN report notes, this will be a tightrope for GOP candidates, whether incumbents or challengers. So long as President Trump retains his popularity, he will be a potent intra-party force, so for those Senators who are perceived to have abandoned him – and that’s an exceedingly short rope – they may find themselves under attack prior to and after the election, win or lose. See former Senator Sessions (R-AL) for a graphic lesson in consequences for a former Trump favorite, who discovered that loyalty to nation coming before loyalty to Trump is not tolerated by Trump – or his base, as Sessions lost the primary to regain his old Senate seat to political novice Tommy Tuberville, and lost badly.
Trump’s base is not composed of politically savvy people, so their basis of assessment is not an informed knowledge of the issues, but simply the view put forward by Trump. When a Republican Senator disagrees, he’s considered a traitor to the Cause. Alternative views need not apply in the Party of RINO-ism. Intolerance is an increasingly strong rule within the Republican Party, and many are discovering that intolerance is an unpleasant way to live when you’re on the wrong end of the spear.
And Trump’s decisions down this stretch run will help decide Senate races. I’m not talking campaign, but simply governance decisions. He’s not built a good base in this area, as his abdication of responsibility has served him ill, as has his denial that the coronavirus was a threat for a very long time. He could come back, though, if he began acting responsibly. Has he started that after that “change in tone” day when he admitted things will get worse before they get better?
Conservative theological pundit Erick Erickson’s mail to non-subscribers suggests bewilderment at the President’s actions:
If the President would pour himself into fighting the virus and give people confidence that he is focused on it, that would buy him time to focus on the economy after calming people down. Polling consistently shows the public prefers President Trump to handle the economy. That same polling shows consistently the public is way more worried about the virus and wants to see that the President is fighting it. Right now, all they seem to see are mixed messages and trolling.
All of this is enough to make one wonder if the President even really wants to win. If he does, why is he online trolling his opponents with claims of delaying the election instead of bunkering down and acting like the man in the arena in charge and command of a national fight against a deadly virus?
There are less than 100 days and a lot at stake. The winners will shape the state legislative and congressional lines for a decade. This is bigger than the presidency. Does the President care?
So long as Erickson does not accept that this President is mentally ill, and the conservative movement is pathologically stricken with religious nonsense and hubristic certainty, he’ll find the President’s actions frustrating and confusing.
I think the President wants to win, but he doesn’t understand how. His perception of the world is that it doesn’t change. After all, he got away with lying and cheating for decades as a real estate developer, and acting is much the same. It worked the first time as a candidate, why not the second?
But the electorate has watched and learned, per polling results. We’ll see just what they’ve learned come election day – or perhaps a couple of weeks later, when all the counting is done. I hope we’re done with this spasm of amateurs, whether they’re CEOs or religious nutcases, as well as arrogant, frantic ideologues, whose false idols (sorry, sorry, that was a stretch) have betrayed them in times of crisis and even times of calm – think the 2017 tax reform bill which did nothing for us, despite GOP predictions.
And Trump doesn’t get it – he doesn’t get that the environment has changed. Hell, the GOP didn’t even create a new platform for this President election cycle, they just crossed out 2016 and wrote in 2020, at Trump’s direction. Change? Change is evil, not to mention uncomfortable.
Deny it.
