As we all know, roughly one third of the Senate is up for reelection every two years, plus any special elections which happen to be scheduled due to resignation, death, or removal from office. Most incumbent Senators are considered to be safe, but I thought I’d go over the current crop of races, just to get a flavor of what’s coming.
All references to TrumpScores, reflective of how often individual members of Congress vote in accordance with Trump’s wishes, are supplied by FiveThirtyEight, and are only guaranteed accurate when I typed them in; they can potentially change as matters come before the Senate. Such scores also do not reflect the importance of each vote, nor the length of service of each member of Congress; they should be taken with a grain of salt.
Alabama
Doug Jones (D) will be defending against all comers only two years after winning a special election against former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore by a very small margin. This time around, the ancient Justice Moore is again running in the Republican primary, but the latest polling shows him trailing the former holder of Jones’ seat, former AG, and apparent lickspittle Jefferson Beauregard III, as well as former college football coach Tommy Tuberville; the last poll I saw had the latter two neck and neck.
With the damaged Moore unlikely to take the Republican nomination, Jones will be in a real tussle, whether it’s Sessions or Tuberville opposite him. I expect Jones will lose narrowly, barring a major screwup by Tuberville or Sessions. If Sessions wins the nomination, Trump would need to find a way to endorse him, which might be difficult given their history. Tuberville, a Trump devotee, would be much easier. But a Trump endorsement could turn into an anchor around the nominee’s neck if Trump screws up in a major way, or if Trump’s ideology were to become so foul that even the citizens of Alabama finally began rejecting him.
Alaska
Dan Sullivan (R) will be defending his seat this November. Six years ago he beat a Democratic incumbent, which suggests the Democrats may mount a challenge, but, if so, I have heard nothing about it. … Recent Democratic propaganda suggests that Al Gross (Independent – yep, but Democrat-endorsed) may present a decent challenge to the sitting Senator, although the National Republican Senatorial Committee harrumphs at the very idea. More credibly, however, the conservative web site Washington Examiner has expressed similar concerns, noting Gross’ apparent ability to attract funds, the Democratic endorsement, and an Alaskan history of independence in its selection of elected officials, such as the current Governor, an independent, and the election of Lisa Murkowsi in 2010 as a write-in Republican.
Will Sullivan’s TrumpScore of 92% become an unexpected handicap? Alaskans will let us know soon enough.
Arizona
Technically, Martha McSally (R) is the incumbent, but she was appointed to the seat of the late Senator John McCain (R-AZ) by AZ Governor Doug Ducey (R) last year, and thus lacks the imprimatur of winning an election.
Assuming she survives a primary challenge from the almost as unknown as she Daniel McCarthy, and a few others, she’ll defend her seat against the winner of the Democratic primary, with the odds-on favorite being former astronaut and current husband of former Representative Gabby Giffords (D-AZ). While my spam from Democratic sources indicates they believe Kelly is leading McSally in polls, it’s a little early to come to any conclusions. Arizona has a long history of conservatism, but when the conservative The Arizona Republic rejected Trump in favor of Clinton in 2016, a streak of shameful barbarism broke out in the form of hate mail. We can hope that it’s either burned out or been suppressed out of utter shame.
That said, Senator McSally appears to be all in on the conservative streak of Arizona burnin’ bright as she is leaping right into unashamed partisan campaigning:
PHOENIX (AP) — Vulnerable Republican Sen. Martha McSally attacks her Democratic opponent, Mark Kelly, for supporting the impeachment and removal of President Donald Trump in an ad that began airing on Wednesday.
McSally’s first television ad of the 2020 election cycle attempts to ties Kelly to liberal members of Congress and the leaders of the Democratic efforts to impeach Trump and remove him from office, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Jerry Nadler and Adam Schiff.
“The Washington liberals are obsessed with President Trump,” a narrator says in the ad. “They wasted three years and millions of dollars trying to overturn the last election and steal the next one. Liberal Mark Kelly supported their impeachment scam.” [The Washington Times]
Arkansas
Tom Cotton (R) will be defending his seat against, well, no one in particular. See, a local Democratic pol had filed to run, and two hours after the deadline, he dropped out, claiming family illness – leaving the Democrats high and dry.
Dirty politics? Bad luck? Cotton, who proved himself to be a real dick during the Obama years, is a shoe-in.
Just as was Minnesota Governor Perpich (D), years back, when his Republican opponent dropped out, quite late in the game, due to scandal – and Arne Carlson, on just a few weeks of campaigning, and despite the loathing of fellow Republicans who found him too liberal, won the governorship, much to Perpich’s shock.
Colorado
Cory Gardner (R) is widely perceived as one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents running for reelection, and with a current TrumpScore just south of 90%, he may not have the support of the President, even if he didn’t vote for conviction in the impeachment trial. His opponent? Former Governor Hickenlooper, whose ability to work across the aisle may aid him in his run, leads the pack of Democratic wannabes. Their primary is in June.
Delaware
Chris Coons (D) is presumably defending his seat for his first reelection fight. When he initially won it, it was with a comfortable margin. There’s little reason to think this seat is in play.
Georgia
A Republican civil war may break out in the run up to the primaries for the special election to replace the ill Johnny Isakson (R), who retired. Kelly Loeffler (R), a businesswoman, was appointed by Brian Kemp (R) to occupy Isakson’s seat until the special election, scheduled for this November; the recommendation of Representative Doug Collins (R) by President Trump was disregarded by Kemp.
The primary will be an opportunity for revenge by Collins and Trump, although Loeffler has attempted to placate Trump through public statements and a 100% TrumpScore, although she’s not had a lot of chances to vote as it is. Her financial resources are fairly immense, and, as the Republican Party requires, she’s learned to toady with the best of them, from what I’ve read; whether Collins’ work on Trump’s behalf in the House will be enough to keep Trump on his side remains to be seen. Collins does at least have government experience, while Loeffler brings no relevant experience to the position, although I expect she’s gaining at least a little bit these days as the sitting, appointed Senator.
While Trump may relish his position in this contest, it’s worth remembering that quite often those he endorses lose, both in primaries and general elections.
CNN has a recent article on how the local GOP strategists are getting squeezed by the intra-party fracas.
The identity of the Democratic challenger is unknown at this time. If the Democrats pick the wrong candidate, then it won’t matter.
But Georgia is a two-fer! Their other Senator, David Perdue (R), is also up for reelection. With a TrumpScore of 94.5% as of this writing, he should be able to gain Trump’s endorsement easily enough, and Georgia did go for Trump in the 2016 Presidential election – but by a surprisingly slim 5 points. While I don’t expect an upset here, and the Democratic candidate is unknown, it remains a slight possibility. Indeed,
Georgia is in play. The state is going to go blue. It’s just a matter of when: this year. – Scott Hogan, the executive director of the Democratic Party of Georgia, in response to news of demographic changes to the State’s population. [AJC]
It’ll be fascinating to see if Hogan is optimistic or correct. If it’s the latter, the Republican Party will receive quite a shock.
Idaho
Jim Risch (R) will be running for reelection, with the Republican primary in May. He has a TrumpScore of 90%, which makes for an interesting question: will he be endorsed by President Trump? A little searching shows some toadying by Risch, but he did endorse Rubio in 2016.
The Democrats also must hold their primary, and none of them ring a bell for me. Trump won Idaho by 33 points, so Risch is probably secure in his job.
Illinois
Dick Durbin (D) is running for reelection. He has no opponents in the primary, and I’m unaware of any scandals which may hobble him. His Republican opponent selection awaits the Republican primary, and he won his last election by eleven points. A lot can happen before November, but assuming Democrats and Independents remain alarmed concerning the Republicans, Durbin is probably safe.
Iowa
Joni Ernst (R) will be defending her seat, and is considered one of the most vulnerable incumbents this November. It’s important to remember that Iowa is not an impregnable Republican bastion, but has often gone Democratic; Ernst’s predecessor was Tom Harkin (D), who retired, and three of the four Iowa Representatives to Congress are Democrats. Truthfully, the district map for Iowa looks a bit gerrymandered – for the Democrats – to me, as shown to the right. The purple district in the upper left is the Steve King (R) district, at R+11. The other three? All listed as D+1. (The other Senator is Chuck Grassley (R), former rubber stamp of the Judiciary Committee.)
But I digress. Democratic propaganda email suggests Ernst is vulnerable, but it’ll all depend on the quality of her challenger – and with a TrumpScore of 91%, she may not be a strong enough supporter of Trump to earn his active endorsement, or the admiration of Trump cultists in the state. It’s an opportunity, to be sure.
Kansas
Pat Roberts (R) is retiring at the end of his term next January, meaning this will be an open seat. Kansas, of all the states, has been through the fire of full-throated Republican extremism, having elected former Senator Brownback (R) to the governor’s seat, where he and his state legislative allies passed laws fully in keeping with Republican kant, namely the cutting of taxes and waiting for the Laffer Curve to take up the slack in terms of tax revenues. This resulted in economic sub-par performance and large holes in the State budget. Consequently, Brownback suffered a revolt by the moderate wing of the Republicans in the legislature and a rejection of the laws; he subsequently left office swearing that if everyone had just waited a little longer, it would have all worked out. His would-be successor was Republican extremist Kurt Kobach, who lost the general election to Laura Kelly (D).
The extremist social ideology has also driven Kansas Republicans away from the GOP, as several state legislative Republicans canceled their Republican membership (can’t find the link for this).
What does it all mean? I think it means this is an opportunity for the Democrats if they can find a strong candidate. The Republican field is notable for the presence of the aforementioned extremist Kurt Kobach, and, while he has not filed, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is also rumored to be interested, although he’s officially denied such an inclination.
We’ll have to wait to see how this race shapes up.
Kentucky
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is defending his seat this year, and is considered by the Democrat propaganda masters to be vulnerable. He’s facing a large slate of opponents in the primary; no doubt, the opponents smell weakness, but the large slate will work in McConnell’s favor. Similarly, there’s a large slate of Democratic candidates in their primary; Democratic officials seem to favor former Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath, but we’ll have to wait for the primary. Not so incidentally, McGrath has academic degrees in political science, so at least she has formal knowledge to work off of.
Louisiana
A state I know little of, but as I researched the reelection of Bill Cassidy (R) I was struck by this Ballotpedia quote:
Cassidy was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, defeating incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and becoming the first Republican to hold the seat since 1883.[1]
It suggests that Louisiana may be in play, depending on the interplay between Trumpism’s waxing and/or waning, and Cassidy’s TrumpScore of 92%. Throw into the mix of the reelection of Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards to the seat of governor just a few months ago, and it does suggest that Trumpism is waning, not waxing.
However, Cassidy’s opponent may turn out to be Antoine Pierce, who doesn’t appear to have held any elective office, despite having run for one or two. While this is not dispositive, it certainly makes an electoral run for a Congressional Senate seat more difficult, unless one has a reputation from other endeavours.
I did not find any polls, except for this one suggesting Cassidy’s approval rating is just shy of 50%, which is actually not too bad for him. Unless unexpected events occur, or information appear, I suspect Cassidy will have an easy enough time of it.
Maine
Susan Collins (R) is up for reelection, and appears to be in for quite a battle. This would be for a fourth term, and the last two elections she’s won with comfortable margins. However, the political opposition in her state has been infuriated with her votes for the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh and against conviction on the impeachment charges of President Trump, and their ability to bestir the independents may be enough to extinguish Collins’ ambition.
On her side, though, is a low, low TrumpScore of 67%, suggesting she’s willing to step out of line against the vast majority herd. But how does she do on important issues? I noted two, above; she voted for ACA repeal, against DeVos as Secretary of Education and Pruitt as EPA head; for abortion rights; for sanctions on Russia; etc. It’s not inaccurate to note she is far more independent than most of the Republican Senators, although voting for ACA repeal was disappointing.
As ever, though, the quality of the opposition will be key, and the Democratic primary is still to come. If the Democrats select a popular and competent personality, Collins will be running in a photo finish. It’s worth noting a recent poll shows her possible opposition, Sara Gideon, as being neck and neck.
But the election is a ways away.
Massachusetts
Ed Markey (D) will be defending his seat this fall. He has a couple of primary opponents, including Representative Joseph Kennedy III (D), who could upset him, much in the way then-waitress Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez upset Representative Joseph Crowley (D-NY) in the primary of 2016: perceived generational differences, and a desire for the younger generation to take control. Kennedy, 39, may be able to make similar arguments against Markey, 73.
On the Republican side, only Shiva Ayyadurai has declared for the primary, which is this coming September. Ayyadurai is a businessman and scientist, currently running CytoSolve. He previously ran for the Senate as an Independent against Senator Warren in 2018, and was not a factor. Will he be as a Republican? Without relevant experience, it’s difficult to see him as such, but Massachusetts is not immune to the charms of Republicans – and Ayyadurai may be able to cast himself as a moderate Republican, given that he has virtually no political history to analyze.
Michigan
Gary Peters (D) is running for reelection in a battleground state, so it seems reasonable to presume this seat could change hands. Michigan is interesting, though; it may have rejected Clinton in the Presidential election, but since then the Michigan experience with Republicans has its negative points, between the Flint tragedy, brought on by Republican mismanagement, and attempts by extremists to win elective positions, as recounted by my mother-in-law, herself a conservative who couldn’t stomach gubernatorial candidate Bill Schuette (R) (election won by Gretchen Whitmer (D)), and the Attorney General position was also won by a Democrat.
Will this translate into success for Senator Peters? He won in 2014 by more than 10 points, and I’m unaware of any scandals clinging to his sandals. Declared opponents appear unremarkable, although there’s still time before the August primary. An early poll suggests he enjoys a 6 point advantage over his closest Republican rival, but at less than 50%, suggesting there are undecided voters still out there. It appears the tide is running for the Democrats in this State.
Minnesota
When Senator Al Franken (D) resigned in 2017, following accusations of not treating certain women with respect, Governor Mark Dayton appointed his Lt. Governor, Tina Smith, to the position, with a special election scheduled to coincide with the mid-term elections of 2018. Smith won this election with an 11 point margin over Karin Housley (R).
Two years later is her first election run for a full term, and while her fund-raising letters are alarmist, I do not see any Minnesota Republican figures stepping forth who can attract independent voters as can Smith. The best-known Republican to declare for the primary is former Representative Jason Lewis, a former radio personality and fringe character who served a single term (2016-2018) in the House before losing to Angie Craig (D) in his reelection bid. The district, as it happens, is where my parents used to live; it would have galled Dad no end to have Lewis representing him, even more than Lewis’ predecessor, Col. John Kline (R). To be fair to Lewis, he does hold an MA in Political Science from the University of Colorado – Denver.
But he did little in his single term in the House, and his history on the radio as a far right wing host makes him an easy target for demonization.
I expect Smith to retain her seat by another ten points, and perhaps more, just as I expect Minnesota to reject Trump by ten points.
Mississippi
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), winner of a special election at our last mid-terms, is up for reelection for her first full term as a Senator. Mississippi is a well-known conservative state, and, despite missteps in her special election, she won by a relatively comfortable 7 points against former Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy (D) of the Clinton Administration.
This time around Espy is challenging again, but, unless things have changed on the ground in this far-off state, I expect Hyde-Smith to retain her seat. If she doesn’t, it may signal the end of the road for the Trumpists in one of the most conservative States in the Union.
Montana
Steve Daines (R) is defending his seat this November. In his last election, six years ago, he won by a very comfortable 17 point margin. His Democratic opponent will be determined in a primary in June, but barring unforeseen negative events, it seems likely that Daines will retain his seat.
Nebraska
Ben Sasse (R), a former professor and University President (Midlands), will be running for reelection. While he likes to run his mouth, he’s a Republican who falls into line on important votes, such as voting against conviction on impeachment. That said, he was comfortably elected to his seat six years ago, and he may face a bigger challenge from Matt Innis, who is proclaiming his Trumpist credentials proudly, than from any Democratic challengers. Sasse’s TrumpScore is only 86%, which may motivate Trump to endorse the unknown novice Innis, instead – and Trump won this state by 15 points. That said, times change, the Democratic nominee won’t be Clinton and may be Midwestern moderate Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), and if Innis were to win the primary, it’s possible that between raw amateurism and Trumpist cult manners, and Klobuchar’s attraction down-ballot, a repeat of the Kobach debacle in Kansas might be in the offing.
But that’s an awful lot of ifs. Looking to join the office political pool? Put it on on Sasse.
New Hampshire
Jeanne Shaheen (D) is running for reelection in New Hampshire, where she beat former Senator Scott Brown (R) by only 3 points. Does this say her next opponent will have a good chance to beat her? I found it difficult to get a quick read on her chances. None of the Republicans signed up the primary ring any bells, unlike Brown of six years ago. This CNBC report suggests she’s well-liked and well-capitalized, while her opponents are lagging.
By default, hand it to the incumbent, but keep an eye on the state. New Hampshire nearly went for Trump in 2016, as he lost by less than a point.
New Jersey
Former Presidential candidate for the Democratic nomination Cory Booker (D), now that he’s decided he can’t win the nomination, is running for reelection. While he won handily in 2014, the Presidential run may upset the usual calculus for incumbents. His Republican opponent has not yet been selected, but at this point it appears this is a race that’s Booker’s to lose.
New Mexico
In New Mexico, Tom Udall (D) has declined the opportunity to run for reelection, leaving an open seat for the taking. Udall won in 2014 by a comfortable 11 point margin; in 2016, Donald Trump lost the state by 8 points to Clinton, although it is notable that Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson won more than 9% of the vote, which, had it gone for Trump, would have given him the State.
Clinton will not be on the political map this time around, nor will Udall, which makes this into an entry of bland generalities. Professional political ratings services suggest this seat will remain Democratic. The possible or confirmed candidates include Representative Ben Ray Luján (D), who will have some visibility; the Republican candidates in the primary appear to be political novices.
While somewhat chancy, this appears likely to remain a Democratic seat.
North Carolina
Senator Thom Tillis (R) is running for reelection, but against the headwinds of the deteriorating North Carolina GOP. This was signaled by the 2016 election of Governor Cooper (D) in a shocking upset of then-Governor McCrory (R), signaling voter dissatisfaction with the Republicans. The GOP then compounded their error by attempting to strip the governor’s office of as many powers as it could in a lame duck session. While many observers feel dirty tactics is simply de rigeur for North Carolina politics, the resultant chaos and corruption is not a desirable component of any State’s culture, and it’s possible that Tillis’ association with President Trump and the allegations of Trump’s corruption may make Tillis’ run for reelection a chancy affair.
That said, Tillis has a TrumpScore of 93%, and a reputation to match. Can the Democrats bring a candidate with enough appeal and competency to upset Tillis, who was a member of the North Carolina house before moving to the Congressional Senate? Several declared opponents have similar credentials, and Tillis himself defeated a Democrat for his seat six years ago. Any missteps could cost Tillis his seat.
UPDATE: Is this a misstep?
Television ads in North Carolina have been telling voters for weeks that there is only one “proven progressive” on the ballot in the March 3 Democratic Senate primary, asking a series of rhetorical questions about who supports “Medicare for All”, the Green New Deal and has the endorsement of progressives and unions.
The ads, funded by a group calling itself the Faith and Power PAC, proclaim that underdog candidate Erica Smith “is one of us.”
Who formed the PAC? Republicans.
After weeks of deflecting questions about the advertisements, the Senate Leadership Fund — a GOP super PAC associated with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell — on Friday claimed responsibility.
In a statement, SLF President Steven Law called the ad blitz “an unqualified success” because it forced presumed front-runner Cal Cunningham to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars against Smith, a little-known primary opponent. The PAC believes that will weaken Cunningham against incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis, assuming Cunningham wins the nomination. [Roll Call]
Or will North Carolina voters think this is all above board? After all, former Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) did something similar in order to ensure he ran against the weak Republican candidate Sharon Angle on his last reelection run.
Oklahoma
Senator James Inhofe (R) may or may not be running for reelection in Oklahoma this November, there is no indication, but he is 83 85 years old, so he may decide to hang it up. A multitude of experience-starved Democrats are on the primary slate, but only one Republican, JJ Stitt, who is also apparently a political novice.
Still, Donald Trump won an overwhelming victory in Oklahoma, and it seems likely that, whoever is the Republican candidate, they will win. The question in my mind, then, is this: where are the Republican candidates?
Oregon
Democrat Jeff Merkley is up for election to a third term in the US Senate. His opponents so far registered in the Republican primary appear undistinguished, but the primary isn’t until May.
In Oregon, Clinton beat Trump by 11 points in 2016, and I’m unaware of any scandals attaching to Merkley. I figure this is a safe seat.
Rhode Island
Senator Jack Reed (D) is running for reelection in Rhode Island. Between winning previous elections by monstrous margins, and representing a state that went for Clinton by 15 points, it’s hard not to see Reed as being a safe bet, no matter who is on the other side of the ballot.
South Carolina
One of the hotter races is considered to be the reelection of South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham (R) to the Senate. Graham has been noteworthy for his “flip” on Trump, from using extraordinarily denigrating terms for candidate Trump to becoming President Trump’s golf partner. This has provoked outrage in many observers.
Democratic propaganda mail suggests Jaime Harrison may be competitive with Graham, but the election is a ways off. Harrison has been in and around politics for years, but does not appear to have held an office, which may put him at a disadvantage to Graham, who has held offices at the state level as well as in the House and Senate. Harrison also must survive the primary.
Graham’s TrumpScore is only 86%, but he’s been a personal confidante of Trump for a while – although rumor has it that he’s not as trusted as some. He’ll almost certainly receive Trump’s endorsement, yet he can point at his voting record in answer to claims that he’s merely a hand puppet. South Carolina is traditionally a Republican seat, so while the failure of Katie Arrington (R) to retain the seat of Mark Sanford (R), who she upset in the 2018 primary, may seem significant, it’s probably not.
Harrison may have a shot, but he’ll have to work and hope for some help from above.
South Dakota
Senator Mike Rounds (R) must defeat relative unknowns to retain his Senate seat in conservative South Dakota, and so far there seems to be little reason to think he won’t.
Tennessee
Long time politico Lamar Alexander (R), who I’ve mentioned in unkind words before, will be retiring at the end of 2020, leaving the seat open. There’s a scad of people lined up for the primary, which is months away, making any description a bit bland.
However. While it’s true that Clinton lost Tennessee to Trump by 26 points, and Alexander has won his elections by comfortable margins, it’s worth noting that Clinton and Alexander had a lot of name recognition, one negative, the other positive – deserved or not. This election may be somewhat less clouded by personality than Alexander’s previous victories.
And it’s also worth noting this post, where I respond to Erick Erickson’s lamentations concerning intra-party partisans sitting out general elections because their preferred candidate lost. There’s more Senate wannabes in the Republican column than Democrats; it’s possible that if the Republican primary becomes heated, the Republican base will fracture and permit the Democrats to eke out a victory.
There’s a lot of ifs there. Look for Republicans to retain this seat.
Texas
In his 2014 election to this Texas Senate seat, Senator John Cornyn (R) won by 27 points. In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by 9 points.
So why are so many sitting Texas Republican Representatives retiring at the end of 2020? Democratic rumor has it that they see Trump as a strong impediment, and that Texas is not the strong Republican redoubt that it’s often cast to be.
Will this impact Cornyn? The Tea Party faction of the Republicans revolted against him in 2014, mounting a primary challenge that was unsuccessful. Cornyn faces a handful of primary challengers in 2020, which will work in his favor as the vote will be split among them – and none of those challengers have applicable political experience. The Democratic field is bigger, and if there’s an important name in it, it eludes me – but politics is local, and Texas is down on the other end of Interstate 35 from here.
The picture will clear up when the primaries are finished and the campaigning can really begin. For the moment, I suspect Cornyn will win, carried along by a Trump endorsement and his TrumpScore of 94.9%.
Virginia
Senator Mark Warner’s (D) last reelection run was a nail-biter as he won by little more than half a point against Ed Gillespie (R), who’d never won an election before nor since. That stirs up concerns about the Democrats retaining this seat.
On the other hand, Virginia state politics have begun to run against the Republicans, as illustrated by the state legislature coming under control of the Democrats in the 2018 elections for the first time in many years.
Warner himself, if he chooses to run (I haven’t found an official declaration either way), may not have as much of a tussle. Morning Consult’s late 2019 survey found him with a 49% approval – 30% disapproval rating, presumably from Virginia voters; FiveThirtyEight finds similar numbers
Whoever runs for this seat, it’s probably the Democrats’ to lose.
Wyoming
Senator Mike Enzi (R) is retiring at the end of his current term, leaving Wyoming’s Senatorial seat, surely one of the most powerful in terms of Americans represented (remember, inverse correlation), up for the taking.
Wyoming is a State that went for Trump in 2016 by 45 points, and Enzi, a former mayor and State legislature denizen, won his last election by an even larger margin. The lone Wyoming House seat was won by a Republican by 37 points – making him a piker. There’s little reason to believe that Democrats can make a credible run at this seat.
That said, politics has to be played for the long run as well as the short-term. The Democrats should run someone in the State, with full backing, for a couple of reasons.
- Keep the brand alive. Remind those residents that there’s more choices than conservative and really conservative and No, I’m the conservative, you liberal weasel! If the Republicans collapse from sheer incompetence and corruption, the Democrats are better served by being in position with their own message and policies that Wyomingites will be familiar with.
- Gather input. No political party can grow and adapt in isolation. If Wyomingites are unhappy with Democrats, the best way to gather up information on that displeasure is to run a candidate and harvest the input and reactions he or she elicits. Every place Democrats refuse to run a serious candidate is another place where residents will feel excluded and therefore turn to the Republicans.
- Happy chance. Politics is a weird little game. Run the right person with the right name, and people flock to them for little other reason. Or the other side runs an idiot, such as Kris Kobach, and hands you the election. You can’t take advantage of happy chance if you’re not prepared.
So hopefully the Democrats will run someone against the Republican.
So there you are. At risk are 22 Republican seats and 12 Democratic seats, as I count it. By my estimate, the Jones seat is the only Democratic seat truly in peril, although I suspect there’s potential for one or two upsets as well.
On the Republican side, I count at least 9 seats in play, with 3 more as potential upsets. Of all these Senators, three are not running for reelection, which means the advantages of incumbency for two Republican and one Democratic seats will not be available. And the current makeup? Republicans are in the majority, 53 – 45, with two Independent Senators who generally work with the Democrats. A net of four seats would give the Democrats the majority.
Agree? Disagree? Did I miss something? Let me know. I’m not political, just a guy reading the tea leaves.
