Get All Your Fingers Out

Erick Erickson keeps promising to stop sending mail to people who don’t send him money, and then he sends mail anyways. This one is useful and informative, especially if you’ve been bewildered by the report that New York is suddenly upping its Covid-19 death count by 3000+:

The CDC changed the guidelines for a number of reasons. First, “there are too many cases of flu to test and confirm so laboratory-confirmed data is a vast underestimate of the true number of cases.” Second, “influenza and pneumonia syndrome are diagnostic codes used by all hospitals. Capturing this number will reflect a fuller picture of influenza and influenza-related serious illness and deaths in the United States during the pandemic.”

Currently, with COVID-19, to get a very accurate picture, the CDC has used only confirmed testing in its nationwide reporting. But we know testing is insufficient. As a result, just like with the flu, the CDC is asking states to keep a record of presumed cases for later analysis and to accurately document on death certificates if COVID-19 is suspected.

How do they know COVID-19 is suspected? Well, if someone has all the symptoms and we know they either were around an infected person before the symptoms or others got it after coming into contact with them, we can be sure they had COVID-19 even if they did not get tested. Likewise, if they have air sac damage and symptoms consistent with COVID-19, we can know they had it, even if they did not get a test.

The New York Times may not have explained this well, but it is not difficult to understand.

Put more broadly, we have been comparing COVID-19 confirmed deaths to flu deaths, which have included both confirmed and presumed deaths. What New York City is now doing is providing a better apples to apples comparison. Now, in their public release of data, New York City will have confirmed and presumed COVID-19 deaths just as all previous reports of flu deaths in New York had both confirmed and presumed deaths in that total.

This gives us a fuller picture of what is happening. There’s no conspiracy and no effort to make it seem worse than it is. The situation is bad. Getting an accurate picture of just how bad it is makes sense.

Or, as is often said in science, you can be precisely wrong, or you can be imprecisely right. At the numbers we’re now talking, we can be off by a few and still be making proper decisions.

And thanks to Erickson for stating this precisely. I don’t subscribe to The New York Times, as I already have a sub to The Washington Post and that takes up more than enough of my time, so I have no idea if they performed as poorly as Erickson would have his readers believe – I suspect Erickson sometimes misinterprets the mainstream media in order to condemn them. But this was a nice clarification, and I certainly don’t have time to call up the CDC for clarification, as he did.

The Free Market And The Food Desert, Ctd

A few days ago I posted an entry concerning the food desert caused by the centralization of groceries, particularly in rural areas. This occurs at Walmart, typically.

However, another centralization point, that could be a danger to Americans, has become apparent, and that is food processing plants. This is what clued me in:

Jayson Lusk, head of the agricultural economics department at Purdue [University], said because agriculture is seasonal, commodity grains and meats were produced months and months ago, but that the real vulnerability lies in the people.

“We have plenty of hogs, chickens and cows. But they all have to go through these packing plants that are big enough that if one closes down because workers get sick, it’s not a trivial amount.”

And imports, he said, could be a problem. The United States imports about half of its fruit, such as grapes and bananas, and about 20 percent of its vegetables at this time of year are from Mexico. [WaPo]

(My bold) Here in the upper Midwest we already have one example, as South Dakota’s Smithfield Foods‘ pork processing plant in Sioux Falls has been forced to close due to several workers coming down with COVID-19. From their press release:

Smithfield Foods, Inc. announced today that its Sioux Falls, SD facility will remain closed until further notice. The plant is one of the largest pork processing facilities in the U.S., representing four to five percent of U.S. pork production. It supplies nearly 130 million servings of food per week, or about 18 million servings per day, and employs 3,700 people. More than 550 independent family farmers supply the plant.

“The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply. It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running. These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain, first and foremost our nation’s livestock farmers. These farmers have nowhere to send their animals,” said Kenneth M. Sullivan, president and chief executive officer, for Smithfield.

It’s interesting that Smithfield Foods is implicitly admitting that its own centralization policy of building large processing plants, undertaken for no doubt sound financial reasons, may be imperiling the country’s food supply. I’m not blaming them or calling for the executives to be put up against the wall, because this is a failure of government.

And, while this foolishness is certainly part of the short-term blame:

As governors across the country fell into line in recent weeks, South Dakota’s top elected leader stood firm: There would be no statewide order to stay home.

Such edicts to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus, Gov. Kristi L. Noem said disparagingly, reflected a “herd mentality.” It was up to individuals — not government — to decide whether “to exercise their right to work, to worship and to play. Or to even stay at home.”

And besides, the first-term Republican told reporters at a briefing this month, “South Dakota is not New York City.” [WaPo]

Governor Noem (R-SD) should simply resign due to gross incompetence.

But, as I said, this is short-term foolishness. Here’s the long-term view: The safety of the community is government’s responsibility, not the private sector’s. It is up to the government to identify dangers to the community and lay down laws and regulations to mitigate those risks. At the city level, an example is zoning ordinances; at the state level, environmental regulations and requirements of local resources; and at the Federal level, regulation to reduce the danger inherent in national threats, such as invasion, and natural threats that do not respect political borders, such as pandemics.

I repeat, I do not blame Smithfield Foods and the rest of the food industry for centralization. The supply of food, as impacted by natural disaster, is not properly the responsibility of any one food company.

It is the responsibility of the Federal government.

However, the propensity of the private sector to attempt to capture and/or evade regulation is an ongoing worry, and I do think that such companies need to put more emphasis on accepting that regulation is a good and necessary part of government – not an unnecessary and onerous burden which reduces profits, much to the horror of those greedy bastards, the shareholders. (As an investor myself, I feel perfectly justified in the characterization.)

While the Republican Party is generally considered to be a water-carrier[1] for the private sector, I think the Democrats also come in for some share of the blame.

But the past is the past; at this juncture, it’s time to reconsider opposition to regulation, and for the Federal government to consider how to reconfigure the food supply to better endure pandemics such as this one. I personally think that processing plants such as the one in South Dakota should be banned; a collection of smaller, geographically distributed processing plants will be more resilient to natural disasters, and employ marginally more people.

And if it costs more, tough shit. We’re the wealthiest nation in the world and we can deal with it.

So if your representatives at local, state, and/or Federal levels appear resistant to investigating regulations that will make us safer in the face of a natural disaster, advocate for their ouster. Make some noise.

And if you’re a conservative shaking your head at the thought of more regulation, it’s time to stop blindly believing that Regulation is Bad. Regulation is the imposition of rules in the absence of the market forces that would ordinarily impose rules. That’s really all they are.


1 For those younger readers unfamiliar with the obsolete term water-carrier, it means someone who represents an interest for which they are not formally registered, such as a Senator whose votes always reflect the interests of the pharmaceutical industry, rather than that of their constituents. It is a term of shame, as it involves a tinge of fraud and even betrayal.

Belated Movie Reviews

I gotta say, running around in those costumes must have been a bear.

The Magnavox Theatre (1950), much like Studio One, was a run of hour long, disconnected stories, which I will treat as movies. Their lone episode which was not broadcast live, and which we recently enjoyed, was The Three Musketeers, the classic Dumas story of love, duty, and the subversion of the King – from all sides, his wife the Queen, Cardinal Richelieu, even the cadet-Musketeer who finds himself assisting the Queen – and he’s not aware of it.

Such are the ways of despotic power.

It’s the old story here, as England is currently occupying part of France, and the Cardinal, despite his ecclesiastical trappings, is outraged at England’s brazen ambitions, and angered by the vacillating King. Now Queen Anne has a secret tryst with the English Duke of Buckingham, and, as a memento, gives two of her prize jewels, which were gifts from the King, to the dashing Duke. The Cardinal, suspecting something is up, has his henchman Rochefort keeping an eye on the Queen and her maid, and this is when we encounter D’Artagnan and the eponymous heroes of the tale, as the former has already bumped into the latter, agreed to serial duels, been interrupted by Richelieu’s men that are enforcing an edict against dueling, beat them all up, and ended up becoming pals as D’Artagnan becomes a cadet of the Musketeers.

D’Artagnan rescues the maid from Rochefort’s assistants and is, perforce, introduced to the Queen and Duke in a most hurried way. But Richelieu’s special assistant, Milady, has spotted the jewel gift, and soon there’s a plan afoot to steal the jewels from the Duke by Milady, manipulate the King into requiring the Queen to wear them, and then reveal her perfidy – or at least love for the wrong guy – for all to see.

Thus, the frantic dash for England, arriving just late, and then the frantic dash back, all the while leaving the various Musketeers behind to hold off the bad guys, if in fact any are bad – it’s refreshing that everyone thinks they’re working for the best interests of France, rather than it being depraved lunatics vs those whiter than fresh-driven snow.

(Can you tell we’ve been enduring snow squalls in April around here?)

A rousing climax, and some commentary on amatory technique close our classic tale. While I think the acting was good, and damn near everyone is dashing or lovely, as required, the quality of the print was poor. The fencing was little more than bodies wiggling blurrily around on the screen; one never got the sense of a hero in dire straits and battling his way out of it through some resourceful trick. And a story like this really requires flashy color; the black & white of this flick is disappointing.

Still, it’s compact and, most of the time, it’s possible to tell a Musketeer (or wannabe) from the Cardinal’s men.

Fun, but not great fun.

The Anti-Life Party

CNN/Politics is reporting on the faux-wisdom of Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R-IN):

An Indiana congressman said Tuesday that letting more Americans die from the novel coronavirus is the “lesser of two evils” compared with the economy cratering due to social distancing measures.

Speaking with radio station WIBC in Indiana, Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth asserted that, while he appreciated the science behind the virus’ spread, “it is always the American government’s position to say, in the choice between the loss of our way of life as Americans and the loss of life, of American lives, we have to always choose the latter.”

“The social scientists are telling us about the economic disaster that is going on. Our (Gross Domestic Product) is supposed to be down 20% alone this quarter,” Hollingsworth said. “It is policymakers’ decision to put on our big boy and big girl pants and say it is the lesser of these two evils. It is not zero evil, but it is the lesser of these two evils and we intend to move forward that direction. That is our responsibility and to abdicate that is to insult the Americans that voted us into office.”

Sophisticated analysis? No. It’s one of those fallacious appeals to authority via the Big boy and big girl pants remark – that is, the grownups are now going to make a hard decision and you lesser beings had better let the grownups do that for your own good. That’s the implicit message here.

There’s no particularly insightful argument. He makes an assertion, without support, that minimizing deaths through social distancing and flattening the curve, will cause more economic damage than having more people – by an order of at least one magnitude, if not, horrifyingly, two – die in agony.

And wear out the medical profession.

While many other non-COVID-19 patients who would ordinarily be saved would also die due to the well-documented scarcity of medical resources that his suggestion would entail.

Of course, this is not entirely surprising from a representative who has an MBA from Wharton and founded and ran a couple of companies – but never studied government. His values are those of the private sector, not the public sector.

And he may not have actually done any research, but just shot his mouth off. While I have no opinion on the validity of this work, as this is just a newspaper report, the University of Wyoming has been doing some research:

A University of Wyoming analysis found that social distancing efforts to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus outweigh the economic costs of such measures by trillions of dollars, while also saving more than a million lives.

The researchers, led by a UW economist, found “that social distancing policies likely do not constitute an overreaction to COVID-19. In a variety of plausible scenarios based on the best available information as of April 3, 2020, we find that the economic benefits of lives saved outweigh the value of the projected losses of GDP by about $5.2 trillion,” the authors wrote in article that will be published by a Cambridge University journal.

The analysis comes amid a national debate about the impacts of social distancing and whether its benefits are worth the economic implications. Last month, President Donald Trump tweeted that the “cure” — social distancing and shutdowns of many businesses and states — “cannot … be worse than the problem itself.” In Wyoming, some officials — like Gillette Republican Rep. Scott Clem — have urged Gov. Mark Gordon to loosen up restrictions on the economy, simultaneously minimizing the severity of the coronavirus pandemic. (In a Facebook post Monday, Clem compared Cheyenne to the Nazi regime of Adolf Hitler because the city was considering fining people for violating public health orders.) [Missoulian]

It’s an interesting article and worth a quick look. And I think it leaves Hollingsworth sucking air.

You Had To Do What?

This seems more than a bit ridiculous:

“The truth is, from this moment on, Americans must ignore lies and start to listen to scientists and other respected professionals,” Pelosi wrote. She said she had reached these conclusions after prayer and reflection over Easter Weekend. [WaPo]

I find my confidence in the House Speaker shaken (and I regard her as a supreme political operator) if she had to use prayer and reflection to figure out the bleeding obvious.

Someone tell me that this is just part of her political scheming and she’s not that much in need of prayer.

They Should Double Down

The Trump Campaign wasn’t kidding when it sent a cease and desist letter to television stations carrying this add:

because now one of those television stations is being sued. From the Trump Campaign press release:

Donald J. Trump for President, Inc. today filed a lawsuit against WJFW-NBC of Rhinelander, WI for defamation in the wake of an advertisement carried by the station that contained intentionally false and defamatory statements about President Trump. The ad produced by Priorities USA, a super PAC supporting Joe Biden’s candidacy, and broadcast by WJFW-NBC, used digitally manipulated clips of President Trump’s voice to fabricate unsubstantiated meaning in the President’s words. The suit, filed in Price County, WI circuit court, followed a cease-and-desist letter and supporting documentation sent on March 25, 2020. In spite of the letter and documentation, WJFW-NBC continued to run the defamatory ad.

The station owner, for the record, seems a little baffled:

“Why they selected my little station in Northern Wisconsin, I have no idea,” Rockfleet Broadcasting President R. Joseph Fuchs told TPM on the phone Monday. Rockfleet owns three stations including WJFW-TV, the NBC affiliate in Rhinelander, Wisconsin targeted by the campaign. [TPM]

Because, Mr. Fuchs, this is how bullies operate. They pick out a little guy who they think can’t fight back and make an example out of him. In the realm of the law, now they have a precedent they can hide behind. For the record, the press release includes a number of quotes which they believe prove that Trump is being misquoted. I’ll leave that for a court to decide.

But I think Priorities USA, the creator of the ad, should double down by enhancing the ad. As I detailed here, add in the following information:

  1. Trump’s remark that he “always knew this was a serious pandemic”.
  2. The dates and sizes of campaign rallies prior to that remark (I do not believe he’s held any since).
  3. Tote them up for a grand total of his supporters that he’s intentionally endangered.

The sputtering would be impressive.

Anything For A Vote, Ctd

Just for completeness’ sake, the Wisconsin Supreme Court justice race did not tighten up over night.

Karofsky’s victory is by 10 points, substantially larger than the earlier margin. For an upset of an incumbent where upsets never happen, of which the latter point I had missed, this is rather monstrous. Again, maybe Kelly had committed some atrocious, if non-action, faux-pas, but I haven’t heard of it.

Losing Wisconsin is something President Trump can ill-afford. Here in Minnesota, we see the numbers of COVID-19 victims nightly, and they roughly double Minnesota’s. While the numbers are certainly inaccurate, due to the testing insufficiencies brought on by incompetence in the Administration, they must have an emotional impact on the residents of Wisconsin.

Anyone miss Obama’s smooth competence yet?

Anything For A Vote, Ctd

For those of you wondering about the results of the highest profile race decided last week in the unwise election held in Wisconsin, the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat that was up for grabs is being claimed by progressive Jill Karofsky:

Slate’s Mark Joseph Stern:

The Wisconsin debacle provoked considerable partisan wrangling since both sides correctly understood it to be a dry run for November. This debate largely focused on absentee voting, and whether states should make it easier for voters to mail in their ballots. Trump has vociferously opposed mail-in ballots (which he also uses to vote absentee in Florida), claiming falsely that they are “corrupt” and “fraudulent.” Congressional Republicans have opposed Democratic attempts to establish universal vote-by-mail in the next coronavirus package. The president and his allies are also considering letting the U.S. Postal Service collapse, starving it of emergency funds so it cannot reliably transport ballots in November.

But it was never entirely clear that Republicans’ hunch—that Democrats benefit from widespread mail-in voting—was correct.  That suspicion seems to have arisen from the fact that more Democratic states have adopted reforms that expand access to the ballot, including mail-in voting, while conservative states retain a slew of restrictions on the franchise. It may also be rooted in liberal advocates’ staunch opposition to severe limitations on mail-in voting; most lawsuits challenging those limitations were brought by organizations allied with Democrats. But in many states, Republican voters, especially older voters, historically use mail-in voting more than Democrats do.

The Republicans retain a one vote advantage in the Wisconsin Supreme Court, so the victory is about future elections and the electorate. As ever, hotly contested state-wide elections are viewed as bellwethers for the hosting state, and for those who adhere tightly to such a view must be either dejected or jubilant, because this is not only an upset, but currently a six point upset. Assuming it holds, and I would hope that it wasn’t called prematurely, it certainly calls into question the interference of out-of-state forces, which have been engaging in influencing voters for a very long time, but have been becoming more and more brazen in what are truly morally dubious efforts.

More importantly, though, is the effect this failed bet will have on the Republican Party of Wisconsin, as well as the Republican National Committee. Their brand can now be brought under attack by Democrats for forcing voters to choose between good health and voting rights; Republican senior citizens who’ve retained their traditional Midwestern skepticism may leave the Party in disgust, sit out the next election – and possibly even vote Democratic.

All of this must be diluted by the names and reputations of Karofsky and her opponent, Kelly, of course, and I am not conversant with them.

Carrying on, the Republicans, both state and national, are clearly in need of deep reform, although, for reasons I’ve previously stated, it won’t happen until something truly horrible happens to them, electorally speaking.

Democrats now have opportunity, but along with it comes tasks to complete. Quality candidates for the upcoming State Assembly must be recruited and trained, and if they win election, they must come through with sensible legislation.

For Democrats, this victory is only a promise; for Republicans, it’s a warning, and a big one.

Belated Movie Reviews

This suit doesn’t fit right. I suppose that’s de rigeur for a chief of police in a goofy little town.

Studio One in Hollywood” is the name of an old, old TV series (ca 1947 – 1958), featuring hour long episodes of unconnected shows, which I will treat as short movies. We just saw Two Sharp Knives, a pleasingly complex murder mystery which, despite the relatively awful video, intrigued us. The mystery opens with the how and why a man traveling with his daughter to meet his estranged wife for the first time in ten years is found dead, hanging by his neck in a prison cell, where he’d been placed when the local police were notified that the Philly cops wanted him for murder. It’s puzzling that the cop on duty hadn’t noticed a thing, and even his little nap should have been disturbed by the stool being kicked away by the suicide.

But then the chief of police, who is already under political attack by the D.A., discovers the Wanted for Murder poster is a fake, and the coroner, deceiving the D.A., calls it murder. The chief is in a squeeze play now, between a bewildered daughter who believes he did it, and the knowledge that the real players may be leaving soon.

And why?

It’s a well-acted and -crafted tale, and the worst part of it may be the mysterious title. It’s adapted from a short story of the same name by the legendary Dashiell Hammett, and I have to wonder if the part of the story justifying the title was edited out during the adaptation to the screen; I’d be delighted to read the story, as I’ve read (but mostly forgotten) all of his novels.

I won’t recommend it, but it’s not a bad way to spend an hour.

BONUS: You also get the original Westinghouse commercials that went with it!

Keep An Eye On This, Ctd

A while back I commented that one of the side effects of the COVID-19 outbreak might be the collapse of the free trade system that envelops most of the world, as …

Free trade tends to lead to specialization on a national level, as countries who are better at, or have more appropriate resources, concentrate on doing what they do well for export; but other products that don’t fall into that specialization are neglected – after all, you can use your profits from the specialization to buy all that other stuff. Or, more bluntly, those domestic industries who find they can’t compete with the foreign competitors get wiped out, while you wipe out the foreign competitors who can’t keep up with you. This all works out great for those who are in the right industries, or cut sweet heart deals with the government to get bought out as they find they can’t compete. And everyone important is happy in both the public and private sectors.

Right up until economic links are cut for non-economic reasons. While war is a popular reason for terminating those links, it’s also something that we can, with some effort, control, either through negotiation, or by kicking out the obstreperous individuals.

But when it comes to disease, we’re not nearly as much in control. Sure, we can and do work on it, trying to develop vaccines and cures, but none of this is guaranteed, and, barring unexpected miracles, it takes time.

Andrew Sullivan is reporting that national entities are moving along this path in the first part of his weekly tri-partite diary entry for Intelligencer:

The nation-state was beginning to reassert itself before, but COVID-19 has revealed its indispensability. Europeans realized, if they hadn’t already, that a truly continental response was beyond the E.U. Borders were suddenly enforced, resources hoarded by individual nations, and the most important decisions were made by national governments, in national interests. Americans, for their part, saw their own dependence on foreign countries, especially dictatorships, for core needs — like medicine, or medical equipment — as something to be corrected in the future. Japan is now spending a fortune paying its own companies to relocate from China to the homeland.

It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. Economic nationalism as the pendulum swings? Or identification of critical industries, followed by legislation requiring their use of domestic rather than foreign parts?

Will the international shipping industry take a hit? Almost certainly if it’s economic nationalism; it’s not so clear if the impact is selective.

And what will this mean for such countries as Vietnam and India, which struggle to catch up with the more advanced nations? I see free trade as a lifeline for them, a chance to learn how to organize and take advantage of the opportunities that come with cheap labor. If that gets shutdown, what happens to them?

Free trade was advertised as the way to accelerate economic progress and wealth, and I think most economists would agree that it has achieved that. However, as countries are beginning to recognize, it also brings vulnerabilities to those that sup at its table. Is an uncoordinated decision about to be made to slow economic progress in order to better manage world wide natural crises?

Keep an eye out.

Getting To The Next Step: Costs

The Planetary Society’s Casey Drier has released his collation of NASA budgets since 1960, so if you want to see all the financial details of the ladder to the stars, you might wish to start with his publicly available dataset. One of his example graphs:

NASA planetary science spending, by prime destination. Inflation-adjusted using NASA’s New Start Index. Source: Planetary Science Budget Dataset, compiled by Casey Dreier for The Planetary Society (accessible on Google Sheets or downloadable as an Excel file).

Come up with a cool graph? Let me know!

Word Of The Day

Zygodactyl:

Parrots have handedness, or rather footedness. They are zygodactyl, which means they have two toes facing forwards and two facing backwards. Most birds have three going forwards and one backwards. The orientation of the toes makes parrots good at climbing and picking things up and holding them. They often pick up a large piece of food and hold it in one foot while eating it a piece at a time. Most are left-footed. Whichever foot a bird uses is almost always the same. My cockatoo is left-footed. [“The Last Word,” response by Linda Dow to a question regarding handedness in animals, NewScientist (4 April 2020)]

Swing That Pendulum

When COVID-19 made its appearance in Wuhan, China, the first victims literally had no chance. Slightly later victims, however, fell to the virus due to the fear in local officials of reporting the outbreak to top Chinese officials: fear of losing promotion or of losing their current position because of backlash from Chinese officials, who, in turn, fear the consequences of political disadvantage they feared an out-of-control virus might bring to their government. And, because of our advanced travels links, I don’t think we ever had a chance of containing it to Wuhan, unfortunately.

But the rest of the world had advanced warning. Some took advantage of it, such as New Zealand, which appears to be intent on actually burning it out of their country via vigilant quarantine. As an island nation with easily controllable ports of entry, there’s a reasonable chance of achieving the dream, with infected visitors then becoming the threat. Will they put all visitors into quarantine until a mandatory medical test is passed?

A random picture of the moon.

But other parts of the world were slow off the mark. It is commonly accepted this happened in the United States, despite the protestations of the President. His record of comments as kept by the press and even by whitehouse.gov leave him condemned. As this WaPo article notes, those areas of the country that were slow to heed the warnings of the epidemiologists are beginning to own the results of their foolishness; contrariwise, as I noted here, Ohio, led by Governor Mike DeWine (R), responded early and effectively, and are now reaping the rewards. Slavish adherence to an incompetent leader inevitably leads to disaster, and paying attention to experts, instead, leads to creditable behavior.

So, in a year or two, what will be the resultant character of the United States? Suppose the epidemiologists’ predictions are roughly true, and the people who insisted on attending the beaches of Florida and Mardi Gras in New Orleans, who took the warnings lightly in the rural areas or because they were young, end up sick and, more importantly, infecting those to whom they visited before the symptoms manifested themselves.

Are we heading for a nation of introverts, stay-at-homes, avoiding gatherings? Will the pendulum, as it so often does, swing far to the other side as we begin to assess the damages wrought, in part, by the flaws in our behaviors, from a President who simply lives in his own little fantasy land, to the folks who couldn’t believe it might happen to them and their circle of important people, who thought that surely God wouldn’t hurt a worshiper, or was simply too self-centered to pay any attention? Is that good? Bad?


We’ll be off later today to buy some pies, as the Stockholm Pie and General Store (located in Stockhom, WI) is delivering pre-ordered pies to the Twin Cities area (think of it as a mercy run). As we pull up to the pickup station, we’ll pull on our masks, proffer our identification, pick up our pies at arm’s length, and take them home to gobble in the privacy of our own home. Apple for me!

That last bit about eating isolated from our fellow Americans won’t bother us, introverts that we are, but I’m sure there will be a lot of people mourning the loss of fellow gobblers, those who love munching on their pies while eyeing other patrons’ pies, stopping at other tables to ask how their pies are, going back to the counter to order another impulse pie. And another.

It’s a rush of endorphins, getting those impulse pies. I enjoy that part, too.

And will that be a thing of the past? Honestly, and without thinking of the environmental aspects, I hope not. Not as a medical necessity, but as a matter of societal perturbation. But it may happen, as a percentage of the population becomes paranoid about germs and pandemics, and >SIGH< governmental incompetence – and thinks it applies to all politicians. It’s the lazy man’s ploy, They’re all lazy and incompetent and corrupt … which is easier than actually evaluating them.

Will we figure out how to work together to get over this hump in the road? Or will the political polarization continue and strengthen as the subtle message Don’t trust your political opponents, they’re evil idiots! keeps floating through our communities? I see it on both sides; but the stress of a plague that threatens the most vulnerable members of our society may force us back together.

Times are interesting. Stay safe and healthy, everyone. And have a piece of pie.

But For Age …

If Governor Mike DeWine (R-OH) were ten years younger, I’d guess he’d be the next Republican nominee for President, regardless of Trump’s failure or success in 2020, based on his demonstrated competence in directing the response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Ohio. This is based on this WaPo article. NPR has a lovely visual model of peak cases of COVID-19, and when. Ohio ranks as one of the best responding states.

By comparison, here’s New York, which has been hard hit despite determined leadership from Governor Cuomo (D):

And, since I live here, Minnesota, led by Governor Walz (D):

Making such comparisons is, of course, dangerous without knowing all of the factors for which adjustments must be made, from the average health of the residents to population densities to factors of which I’m not aware of – at least not at midnight. Just think of New York City’s status as a global crossroads, while Ohio and Minnesota are relative backwaters.

Insofar as Governor DeWine goes, at 73, he’d be running at age 77. I doubt we’ll be seeing that. I expect in four years we’ll see a bunch of much younger candidates running – Rubio, Klobuchar, Harris, various Republican governors, etc.

I’m not sure who else in the Republican Party is showing good leadership skills at the moment. Glancing at his profile, I’m not sure I’d agree with him on much, but you have to give him props for his work on this crisis.

The Free Market And The Food Desert

A few days ago, Mark Sumner of The Daily Kos surveyed the data concerning travel in the era of shelter-in-place and its kin, and makes an interesting connection at the prompting of Christopher Hale:

How miles traveled has changed in the era of COVID-19. Red isn’t good.

But there’s another reason that the red states are also “red states” when it comes to their travel distance. As former Obama White House official Christopher Hale points out, these maps correspond closely to areas that are “food deserts,” where the nearest grocery story requires making an extended trip. “Food deserts” is a term that is often applied to urban neighborhoods where good nutrition is outside of walking range, but these are counties where it takes an extended auto trip to find any kind of nutrition, even bad nutrition. Why? The simple answer is Walmart. These areas represent locations where big box retailers like Walmart have annihilated local grocers, and where the quest for an apple or a box of Pop-Tarts means crossing the county to a store that also sells tires, televisions, and potting soil.

And it’s not as if the Army comes in, kicks out the mom ‘n pops, and installs Walmart. The traditional answer is that Walmart outcompetes the locals and then reaps the rewards, which, given the Walmart resources, is not entirely accurate, but will do for here.

How big is the area that a Walmart normally drains and picks over? I don’t know offhand, but I had never thought about this in the context of the pandemic. The Walmart phenomenon is clearly an example of centralization, and while centralization, much like specialization, has its advantages, it also has its vulnerabilities.

Take this Internet thing you’re on right now. It’s a prime example of decentralization. Pieces of it are farmed out all over the place, especially critical pieces such as directories. The Internet is designed to keep multiple copies of important information available in case the primary becomes unreachable, and to flow around unpredictable holes in the network.

Walmart, designed or not to kill off all the local competitors, by being all things to all shoppers that prices everything cheaper (typically by selling cheaply made crap) and making it up on volume, becomes a centralization point in non-urban areas; by contrast, the mom ‘n pop shops, perhaps more expensive and not carrying everything in the world, are / were examples of decentralization by providing duplicate resources, made shopping more convenient and, incidentally, gave more entrepreneurial opportunities to those so inclined.

I’ve never cared for Walmart. From the awful atmosphere and unhappy workers to the bottom of the barrel products and the crappy way the vendors were treated, I really didn’t want to have anything to do with them. I made a conscious decision decades ago that saving money means spending it up front to get quality. That means Walmart is out.

One can say, But when they’re the only game in town … and why is that? My experience with the previous generation to me (I shan’t say mine) is that they were obsessed with quantity over quality. How much food will $5 get me, and can I get it all down my throat? In the end, quality didn’t seem to matter.

So Walmart shoveled it down their throats, and today they still do. I can’t help but wonder, if this happens two or three more times, will Walmart be publicly identified as inimical to the safety of the citizens of the United States? Or will the Federal government look into breaking them up?

Word Of The Day

Sycophancy:

Sycophancy is defined as the overly fawning behavior of a suck-up.
When a kid sits in the front row, answers every question and always brings the teacher an apple every day, this behavior is an example of sycophancy. [Your Dictionary]

Noted in “New Trump press secretary Kayleigh McEnany could do the impossible: Make us miss Sean Spicer,” Margaret Sullivan, WaPo:

By now, we’ve come to accept that spin is part of the job description for White House press secretaries. It’s a tactic and talent that has been on display in every modern presidential administration.

But race-baiting? Dangerous bluster on topics of public health? Blatant sycophancy?

Heaven Forbid The Truth Be Revealed, Eh?, Ctd

The Administration’s bid to manipulate CNN/Business has fallen through:

Vice President Mike Pence’s office reversed course on Thursday afternoon, after declining for days to allow the nation’s top health officials to appear on CNN and discuss the coronavirus pandemic, in what was an attempt to pressure the network into carrying the White House’s lengthy daily briefings in full.

After this story was published, Pence’s office allowed for the booking of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield for CNN’s Thursday night coronavirus town hall. Dr. Anthony Fauci was also booked for Friday on “New Day.”

Kudos to CNN for not becoming another Trump thumb puppet. Real-time fact-checking the President, whether they be Democrat or Republican, has become a critical part of the journalist’s craft, and getting the results out as soon as possible strengthens the audience’s perception of honesty of the candidate, whatever that perception may be.

It’d be something if Fox News did the same thing. Competently.

Just Like A Fox News Viewer, Ctd

I take no great pleasure in noting this, but for future reference, especially by bar-stool blowhards, it’s time to call Robert Epstein to account for rank amateurism. I recently noted that he predicted the max death count in the United States would not exceed 5,000, and world-wide deaths at 50,000 with less than 1 million infections total.

World wide infections are 50% over Epstein’s predictions, and that’s if we’re generous in interpreting his words. Worldwide deaths have exceeded his predictions by nearly 100% His prediction for the American death count has been exceeded by New York City alone, and based on recent counts, it’s probably off by 200%.

And we’re not near the end of this challenge. Will Epstein try to defend his effort, or will he admit he was outside of his zone of expertise?

Fortunately, based on the Administration’s actions, I think they discarded Epstein’s predictions early on, and for that we can be thankful.

So what’s left to do? To observe Epstein’s failure as an amateur, and remember it. The experts are often wrong as well – this is a tough, knotty problem, after all – but at least they know the general parameters, and will use this experience for the next time.

And remember the Administration is mostly composed of amateurs. Do we really want them running things?

Heaven Forbid The Truth Be Revealed, Eh?

CNN/Business is faced with an unpalatable choice:

Vice President Mike Pence’s office has declined to allow the nation’s top health officials to appear on CNN in recent days and discuss the coronavirus pandemic killing thousands of Americans, in an attempt to pressure the network into carrying the White House’s lengthy daily briefings in full.

Pence’s office, which is responsible for booking the officials on networks during the pandemic, said it will only allow experts such as Dr. Deborah Birx or Dr. Anthony Fauci to appear on CNN if the network televises the portion of the White House briefings that includes the vice president and other coronavirus task force members.

On the face of it, it sounds like Pence is demanding equal face time for himself. But I don’t think so:

CNN often only broadcasts President Donald Trump’s question and answer session, which sometimes includes the health care officials, live on-air.

After Trump leaves the podium, CNN frequently cuts out of the White House briefing to discuss and fact-check what the President had said. A CNN executive said that the network usually returns to such programming because of the extensive length of the full briefing that includes Pence, which can run in excess of two hours.

My bold. It appears to me that the Administration would prefer not to have the President fact-checked by one of the bigger cable news sources around.

Also note the length of Pence’s part of the briefing – two hours! Time on any live news source is going to be at a premium, so perhaps VP Pence should squeeze it down to 45 minutes, or even less, and accept that he’ll be on a tape delay while the real-time fact-checking – or humiliation, if you will – of his boss takes place.

Belated Movie Reviews

In The Night Of The Hunter (1955) there are two themes, one hiding under the other. The first has to do with the dangers of the naivete of the religious, how the bold rogue can use religious sensibilities to insinuate themselves into a community. In a sense, it’s taking advantage of Turchin’s concept (borrowed from the Muslims) of asabiya, which is communal trust extended to strangers outside of typical geographical and cultural boundaries, anchored by one or more shared things, such as religion, common existential enemies, and the like. The bold rogue, speaking the lingo of the community, thus labels himself a member of same, inherits the extended trust, and, with no true anchor to the community, takes advantage of that trust to reap a windfall.

But below, and supporting the first theme, is the second theme: the consequences of deceit. This is both of others and of self, and while the delicious snarkiness of watching the religious, in their humility-based confidence, being mislead has a certain satisfactory zeitgeist for the non-believer (or at least those not of the Christian fundamentalist community), it’s the second, underlying theme that brings some real punch to this story.

It’s the 1930s, and the Reverend Harry Powell is a regular one-man crime wave. He kills, particularly women to whom he’s married, he thieves, he watches porn to get it on – and he cries out the word of the Lord all the while, his strong baritone voice bringing authority and pushing the buttons of all who’ve grown up on such performances. In particular, his tattooed hands let him give impressive performances of Biblical stories, a real hook into the shared experience of the community.

And, in some obscure way, he really believes he’s doing God’s will.

But when he’s caught with a stolen car, he’s shocked to receive a short prison sentence. However, God works in mysterious ways, so it’s really no surprise to Powell that he rooms, for a short while, with a condemned man. Ben Harper, fed up with the banks’ abuse of the little man during this time in the Great Depression, robbed a bank and killed two men during the escape. He rushed home with the loot and hides it, making his children, 8 year old John and 4 year old Pearl, swear to never reveal its hiding place; his wife, Willa, isn’t present to witness the hiding. The cops show up and arrest him, but never find the $10,000.

And to Powell he reveals nothing, but Powell knows the money was never found. He’s no fool!

Harper goes the way of the condemned man, and Powell takes his honey voice down the Ohio River to Harper’s home. It’s a great place for Powell: good God-fearin’ folks with whom he fits right in, or so it seems. In particular, the elderly ice cream store owner Icey Spoon, pillar of the community, or know-it-all bully, depending on how you look at these things, sees in Powell just what she wants to see: a preacher full of the spirit of God, but lacking a wife.

And she sees Willa Harper, now a widow and a single working mother of two children. Willa works for Icey, and under her influence, Willa permits Powell to court her as a preacher might, and soon enough win her. But the illusion she had built up of Powell over just a few days is stripped away the first night: no sex, and a brutal psychological put down. One illusion exchanged for another, and in the following weeks she becomes the lead in the little dramas they’re putting on for the townsfolk, admitting to outlandish lusts, titillating the audience, and satisfying their religious proclivities to the point of riot.

All the while, though, Powell’s building his own illusion: that the money Harper stole and hid should be his. This illusion shreds any other illusion for Willa’s son John, who remembers his promise to his father and refuses to reveal its whereabouts, first to indirect approaches from Powell, and then refusing direct orders.

But young Pearl, she is less coherent, less devoted to promises, and John worries.

The family discord rises and rises, and one night, what with John’s misbehaviors and Powell’s psychological abuses, Willa summons the courage to rip the illusion from her eyes and see the man she has married: cold, hateful, spiteful – and looking for money. She accuses him, and, in a hint of what’s to come, when he draws a knife in rage, she neither fights nor screams: its kiss is not horror, but sweet surcease for her troubled life, and she leaves with scarcely the expected murmur.

The next morning, Powell spreads the word that she has left him, that he had been denied sex, that she had given in to her unnatural lusts and was on the road. Now John and Pearl must survive on their own, and Pearl lets slip that she has the money. Before Powell can relieve her of it, though, John arranges for the sky to fall on him. Opportunity has arisen, and they are out the door and soon, barely out of Powell’s grasp, on a skiff, floating down the Ohio River.

An adventure or two later, John and Pearl are brought under the brusque care of Rachel Cooper, a woman with three children already under her dominion – none of them her’s. She’s been through illusion and its dispersal, as she mentions the loss of a son to worldliness, but she’s found a role, taking care of children who would otherwise be a burden on working mothers, or have no parents at all, and John and Pearl find she’s strict but caring.

Powell, though, is relentless, and finds where they’re located. He comes slinking along, but now he’s found someone who has had enough of illusion, of her own, her children, and those she cares for: Rachel Cooper. Caught in a lie or two, Powell still believes it’s his game to win until Cooper taps him between the shoulder blades with a shotgun.

But, you know, God is on Powell’s side, and not only does he return in the night, he discards the dated approach of sneaking, and instead serenades Cooper and her little family from the front lawn. Is he demonstrating his Godliness? Or his manhood? Cooper is having none of it, singing her own version, and then that old shotgun turns out to be loaded and accurate. Again, as with Willa, an atypical reaction: Powell, crying out wildly, runs for the barn. He’s not badly injured, except perhaps in the psyche, as he has been hit, and through the agency of … a woman.

But this story isn’t over just yet. When State Troopers show up the next morning at Cooper’s call, Powell stumbles from the barn and is easily taken – and then John cannot stand to see Powell arrested and assaults the officers, and now it’s Pearl that must try to rescue John. Later, at trial, John cannot testify, overcome as he is with this misplaced loyalty to his persecutor.

But it doesn’t matter, as Willa’s body, the slit throat negating any assertion that she drowned, testifies mutely to Powell’s guilt, as does his history of other incidents with now-dead wives. Powell is incoherent and bewildered.

And the townsfolk, led by Icey herself, husband right behind her, arrive after sentencing, shrieking Lynch him! Their hate-twisted faces, their abrogation of the tenets of their faith, are a testament to the consequences of their own illusions concerning men who appear spouting those God-fearing verses. It’s not their naivete to point at, but the absolutely infernal rage to fear – these are not God-fearing Christians, no, not when their illusions are pierced and they are shown to be such fools that a women is dead and her children endangered.

In this situation, they can either change themselves to lessen the chances of it happening again, or take bloody vengeance, and by God the latter is easier, because they shouldn’t have been wrong in the first place, because God is with them.

Right?

Anchored by a script with a wonderful ear for dialog, strong performances by top actors, excellent pacing, authentic staging, and some interesting cinematography, it’s hard to find fault. The worshipful viewer may not enjoy it, and even I found it dark enough that I put off watching the second half for a few days until my mood had brightened.

But Recommended. This one is worth your time.