Author Archives: Hue White

Anhedonia:

Anhedonia is the inability to experience joy or pleasure. You may feel numb or less interested in things that you once enjoyed. It’s a common symptom of many mental health conditions like depression. Treatment is available to help you regain interest in life’s activities, like being around loved ones or listening to music. [Cleveland Clinic]

Noted in “What is ‘Ozempic personality,’ and why does it make life feel ‘meh’?” Ariana Eunjung Cha, WaPo:

Doctors say they’ve begun hearing similar accounts: a kind of emotional flattening, a dulled response not just to food but to other sources of joy such as reading, listening to music, dancing, gardening — or even sex. Some users also blamed the medications for falling out of love. Online, the phenomenon has taken on a name — anhedonia — and, more colloquially, “Ozempic personality.”

And can you dance to it?

I’ve not been watching the skeptic’s movement lately, but I’m guessing the above caused some chatter. For me, it’s the first time I’ve heard a song incorporate the Establishment Clause, one of the most important segments of the Constitution, into a song.

But Are Voters For Sale?

Cleveland.com reports:

The U.S. Senate Republicans’ main super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, announced Monday that about $79 million of $342 million in planned spending ahead of the November general election in eight battleground races will be on behalf of U.S. Sen. Jon Husted – more than any other candidate. As Jeremy Pelzer reports, the move indicates how much of a threat national Republicans see in likely Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown, who so far has trounced Husted in fundraising.

But marginal returns swiftly shrink as more money is added if voters are well-informed and enraged than average – and I think both are true this time around. That the incumbent, although appointed, Senator of Ohio is receiving an eye-watering amount of money suggests GOP internal polling may have Husted down, as the last poll from Emerson College dates back to December, and Republicans, who have worked very hard to capture Ohio over the last couple of decades or so, fear losing it. However, they have not helped their cause with political incidents like this one, entitled:

Former Ohio House Speaker sentenced to 20 years in prison for leading racketeering conspiracy involving $60 million in bribes [United States Attorney’s Office, Southern District of Ohio]

That’s dated 2023, and thus memorable to many Ohioans.

I find it disturbing that this much money is being spent on political contests, although I do have to carefully remember that increases in productivity and population will of course mean there’s more wealth in general. But it’s still a tremendous chunk of money, and may have come from relatively few people – wealthy voters or even foreign entities looking for influence.

But that’s only part of the story – are we going to have tell China or Russia to menace us with nuclear weapons just to remind our stubborn political class, and, yes, I mean both sides, that we do have existential enemies and we need to move forward in a wise manner, through debate and compromise, and not by indulging our desire for social prestige through advocacy of irrationality and amateurism?

I suspect the Epstein child sex ring originated following the fall of our most apparent existential enemy, the USSR. Will dreadful self-indulgence, self-importance, and immorality mark periods in the United States in which existential enemies are not perceived to exist? See Secular Cycles or War and Peace and War by Turchin, et al.

It’s Better to Buy Newsprint Than Ego-Boosting Drugs

Just like last week, in the face of the above irrelevancy, flies this news, engines blasting!

• Turbulence in Maine? The Portland Press Herald reports:
  

  Gov. Janet Mills is not dropping out of the U.S. Senate race despite trailing in the polls and having no advertisements booked after Wednesday [April 8, I believe], her campaign spokesperson said.

  Speculation online about the potential for Mills to drop out, fueled primarily by supporters of her competitor, Graham Platner, mounted this week as ad spending data compiled by AdImpact showed Mills having no ads booked in the coming days.

  “As the only Democrat elected statewide in Maine in the past 20 years, Janet Mills knows how to win tough battles and deliver results — and that’s why she’s the best candidate to beat Susan Collins in November and is running full steam ahead to defeat her,” Tommy Garcia said in a written statement.

  Platner beating Governor Mills and then Senator Collins would be a kick in the pants for boomers, inevitably on the way out, to scurry even faster. Later in the article the Mills campaign sounds a trifle bitter. Would Mills support Platner in the general election? Would he need it if the younger segment of the electorate buys in on the oyster farmer and former Marine?

• In related news, a poll by progressive Maine People’s Resource Center (MPRC) gives Graham Platner (D) a 9 point lead over incumbent Senator Collins (R), assuming he wins the Democratic primary, and a 33 point lead over Governor Mills (D) in the primary. Mills trails Collins by 3 points in a general election polling, although it’s important to remember it’s early days.  The June 9th Democratic primary should prove interesting; Senator Collins has no primary opponents as of this writing.I’ve never heard of MPRC that I can recall, so are they worth recognizing as a data source?
• I now count eight candidates in the South Carolina general election for Senator Graham’s (R) seat, and he’s running for reelection.

  And primaries have not yet been held! Senator Graham is facing five challengers in the primary, which I think guarantees he’ll win the primary as the challengers split any protest vote; there are also currently five Democrats in their primary. None of the names are familiar.Is this a symptom of deep discontent with Senator Graham? Or just normal South Carolina politics? I recall reading somewhere, long ago, that South Carolinian politics resembles the old Bedlam asylum, so perhaps this is normal.

  A Week, Give Or Take, Later: One of Senator Graham’s primary challengers, Paul Dans, …  who oversaw the conservative policy blueprint known as Project 2025 …, has dropped out of the race. But it’s important to note his incendiary language, which I’d expect from someone involved with Project 2025:

  Dans, noting he was recently endorsed by conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, wrote in a post on X that he was dropping out of the race “because we cannot Make America Great Again until Lady Graham is taken out of office. @MarkLynchSC has the resources to make that happen.”

  Dans launched his campaign last year, telling NBC News that he was running because “we need to have a government of, by and for the people, again. Not by swamp critters like Lindsey Graham.” [NBC News]

  The words of someone with utter contempt for anyone to their left, including right-wingers like Graham; long-time readers will be unsurprised at the behavior of far-right-wingers, hungry for power and the respect they think they deserve. This leads to the question of whether Dans’ failure to gain traction was due to his Project 2025 involvement, or reasons less tangible, i.e., abrasive character, or both. This is all in the face of approving words, if not a formal endorsement, from President Trump, although I tend to see endorsements from Trump as burdens and not boons; notably, while Dans rival Lynch received Dans’ endorsement, Trump’s words for Lynch have been hostile.

  There’s a good chance South Carolinians, having a taste of Project 2025 over the last year+, decided those associated with it are repugnant and boosted Dans out.

• Two polling firms make for better polls? Even an examination of the Edge website didn’t yield its bias, if any, but MDW admits to being progressive, and Florida Politics is reporting on their joint poll in Florida:
  

  Independent voters are breaking sharply toward Democrats, a shift pollsters say could reshape Florida’s political map after years of Republican dominance.

  Democrats may be better positioned than they have been in years to compete — and potentially win — across Florida in the 2026 Midterms, buoyed by Republican weaknesses and a decisive shift among independent voters, new polling shows.

  South Florida-based EDGE Communications and MDW Communications polled 1,834 likely Florida voters between March 27 and April 3. The poll, which carried a 2-percentage-point margin of error, found a political environment that appears increasingly competitive for Democrats in a state long dominated by Republicans.

  The Trump effect

  At the center of the findings is a warning sign for Republicans: President Donald Trump is underwater with Florida voters, and pollsters say that dynamic could have ripple effects down the ballot.

  It’s certainly a plausible report, but I remain uncertain as to an appropriate confidence level given that MDW is a progressive-biased pollster conducting a poll with a result positive for progressives. I also note the lack of mention of the implicit conclusion concerning Democrats, that being their popularity is not due to superior positions or remanding past fundamental errors, but purely off of dislike and, yes, loathing of President Trump.

  Some may say a win is a win, but a win on these conditions will make for a bumpy future ride for everyone, as neither side finds fundamental improvements nor discards dumbass ideas, such as being anti-vaxx. Then again, American politics is usually a bumpy ride.

• Unsurprisingly, in Massachusetts Senator Markey (D) leads primary challenger Rep Seth Moulton (D) by 17 points, according to a poll from respected pollster Suffolk University, 47%-30%. I’m not trying to disparage Rep Moulton, who I actually rather like as he had at least enough insight to raise questions concerning the transgender and sports, even if he didn’t seem to see the heart of the matter. It’s simply hard to beat an unblemished incumbent such as Senator Markey.

  Incidentally, 62.8% of those polled lean Democratic, whether or not they are registered as Democrats.

• In the Democratic primary for the to-be-open Senate seat from Michigan, Data For Progress, lefty-aligned, has McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed in a virtual tie at roughly 22% or 23%. Not Sure has a 33% share, with the caveat that the polling question yielding these numbers did not list any other candidates. This poll did not address the Republican primary.
• Finally, in Kansas Senator Marshall (R), running for re-election, may have put his foot in his mouth as far as the independent crowd goes, if not Republican voters:
  

  Republican Senator Roger Marshall wants Americans to stop complaining about gas prices because they’re necessary for “national security.”

  Speaking on Newsmax’s Wake Up America Tuesday morning, Marshall was asked about the Iran war, and the Kansas politician was dismissive of its negative economic effects on the American people.

  “I’m sorry the gas prices are going up, but help is on its way, and your national security, yes, is even more important than your pocketbook,” Marshall said. [The New Republic]

  Funny thing is, out of context he’s right. Better to exist and pay high prices than not exist and pay low prices.

  But, per usual, context matters. Trump’s War, started, in my opinion, in reaction to Trump’s  desperate search for Hollywood glory and not for any valid, good reason, even if the Iranian leadership is bad guys, renders Marshall’s Trump-faithful rhetoric false. We didn’t need this war, weapon depletion renders us vulnerable to truly dangerous national actors, and they’ve caused inflation that infuriates American consumers. It’s entirely valid for them to complain, and to vote against the Republicans.

  But I’m talking about my perception of the context. Do a large percentage of Kansas voters share that perception? Or do they still think President Trump, who recently spat all over Christians, is a good guy, despite the clear indications otherwise?

  And, I have to say, NewsMax‘s Wake Up America could be renamed Go To Sleep America, at least for that episode.

That’s enough of that, folks. Have yourselves a good day. I now get to take the tattered carcass of my burned out computer over to a joint that’ll build me a new one. I hope it’s a good day for me.

Glocalization:

Glocalization merges globalization and localization, allowing products and services to be tailored to local markets while maintaining a global presence. This strategy adapts global offerings to meet local regulations, cultural preferences, and consumer needs, making them more appealing to diverse audiences across different regions.

A common example would be cars that are sold worldwide but adjusted to meet local criteria, such as emissions standards or what side the steering wheel is located. It could also focus on more cultural aspects, such as a global fast-food chain offering geographically specific menu items that cater to local tastes.

Glocalization often includes culturally targeted media and ads to help local audiences accept foreign products. [Investopedia]

A new word for an old concept. I ran across this word on a survey and had to look it up, and shan’t be providing a quote.

My reader may have heard about President Trump’s attempt to usurp the religious right’s power:

This didn’t go well:

Although Trump deleted the post — depicting the president in white robes laying hands on a man in a hospital bed, with a backdrop full of Americana — the damage is already done: Prominent MAGA influencers and Christian leaders took to social media to publicly air their distaste for the image and disappointment in the president.

“God, we might have made a mistake and accidentally elected the Antichrist,” Christian influencer Mandy Arthur wrote in a post on X.

“There’s not context where this is acceptable,” said Sean Feucht, a conservative Christian activist and longtime MAGA surrogate, calling for the image to be “deleted immediately.”

“A little humility would serve him well,” said Riley Gaines, a Turning Point USA contributor who opposes transgender rights.

“More deportations less Jesus comparisons,” said Republican National Committee youth advisory council co-chair Brilyn Hollyhand.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump claimed he didn’t know the image portrayed him as a Christlike figure and blamed the “fake news” for its negative reception. [MS NOW]

Being agnostic, I have my doubts about theological concepts such as anti-Christ. Speaking as a Western Civ human, though, I’d say the keyword here is humility, which is to say, What does President Trump lack?

We may see more of these sorts of messages. President Trump, in line with many such wannabe dictators, feels it necessary to scurry about suppressing power centers as potential threats to his own alleged power center, because, to these sorts of people, allies are always temporary, and as allies they are more vulnerable to Trump’s depradations than as enemies.

Note the last paragraph quoted, above. Shifting the blame to the constructed, or faux, enemy of the left of center in American politics reminds his offended allies of their shared adversary, shifting their attention from his own attack on themselves. Whether this is successful remains to be seen, and probably won’t be – events come at frantic speed from the President who still can’t deal with the Epstein Files, and has managed to kill thousands of Iranians in his desperate attempts to bury his presence in said Files. Especially for working dudes like myself and my reader.

If this sounds like the actions of a mentally ill person, well, yes. As a friend noted back in 2015 or 2016, he strongly appears to be a pathological narcissist. From such a position it’s not hard to understand that, for him, attention is great, but there’s a difference between attention via intermediaries, such as those quoted above and his personal corp of clerics such as Paula White-Cain, and the sweet, undiluted adoration of the masses, who come to the Trump performances, where, unconstrained by Holy Books, custom, or  good taste, Trump can gather balm for a spirit that is only calm when it’s at the center of a hurricane of grasping greed.

As I noted, we can expect more of this in the near future.

War scholars frequently worry about wars “spiraling” out of control, and I find this report alarming:

Iraq’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia has been summoned by the Saudi foreign ministry, it said in a post on X today, because of reported “attacks and flagrant threats” toward the country and its neighbors from “Iraqi territories.”

Saudi Arabia “condemns and denounces the attacks that were launched from Iraqi territories on the Kingdom and other Gulf nations,” the post said.

The country’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, Saud Al-Sati, highlighted to the Iraqi Ambassador that Baghdad should handle the attacks “responsibly,” it continued. [CNN]

Taking an opportunity to extract a bit of flesh in revenge for some insult may seem wise under cover of an unrelated war, but sometimes weapons, and wars, can go side ways, mistakes made, and neutrals mistaken as allies.

Followed by an overwhelming, anger-driven response.

I hope we don’t see this happening here, but the Middle East is full of pride-driven leaders who must been seen as responding to attacks in such a way as to discourage future attacks.

Ditto the other side.

So for all those self-righteous, angry amateurs out there: don’t be. Even the professionals can screw these things up, as history shows, and when it’s an amateur coursing after glory, bad things can happen.

This appeared in Morning Joe:

But the analysis missed an important point:

The world does not respect Republican leadership.

The whys and wherefores of those polled is not explicated, but I’d guess it’s mostly arrogance.

Headline from the CNN front page:

Trump says US will blockade the Strait of Hormuz

I mean, sure, I’ll supply the context for readers-of-the-future.

We’re in the midst of the US & Israel attacking Iran, bombing, missile strikes, whatever. I don’t know what historians will call this, but I call it Trump’s War.

For maybe the last couple of weeks, Iran has used mines and missiles to stop shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As a large percentage of world-wide shipping transits the Strait for shipping time reasons, including nitrogen-based fertilizer as well as oil tankers, price inflation is occurring and threatens to get worse – all attributable to the actions of the US and Israel.

A few days ago a cease-fire was agreed to between Israel and the US and Iran; the latter was to stop attacking shipping, thus saving Trump’s bacon.

Peace talks began in Pakistan, but now CNN notes in a picture caption:

The move comes after US-Iran peace talks collapsed

Oh, sure, I can see the ham-handed attempt to win is explained thusly:

• Blockade in the strait: President Donald Trump said the US Navy will start preventing ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, risking an even greater spike to oil and gas prices as he seeks to maximize leverage over Tehran. The US and other countries will sweep for mines in the vital waterway during the blockade, Trump said.

And it might be right; experts on this sort of thing are far and few between, and I’m not one of them. But if I were the Iranian government, I’d just tell the missile sites to shutdown and have a cup of coffee, ‘cuz the Americans are doing your jobs for you.

And this all comes off as Trump trotting behind everyone else, watching everyone ahead of him in the race take a left turn, and singing out ten seconds later,

Quick, everyone, take a left turn!

I should mail him a big plastic red nose.

Star Force (2000) is a story about the competition between a system in which cut-throat competition for power and wealth dominates, and a system based on loyalty & honor. Do I want to tell you how it goes?

No. Bad acting, dated dialog delivered poorly, really bad computer graphics of space battles, bland indifference to plot holes such as why bad guys are lurking in stable sectors, and their ambush is not reported by the trainees who encounter them.

The whole thing is painfully silly.

And it’s too bad because there’s enough plot deception that it could have been fun – even good, with proper attention to motivation.

But this is so bad I won’t bother to dig up a picture.

It’s just one of those comments that leaves me … bemused.

In a brief phone call with NBC News, Trump declined to provide any update on the status of negotiations with the Iranians, but he sharply criticized Iran’s call for young people to line up as human shields around power plants.

“Totally illegal,” he said. “They’re not allowed to do that.”  [NBC News]

Symptomatic of … do I have to say it?

A temper-tantrum.

The little kid isn’t getting his way and demands that he should.

As for what motivated him to post this morning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” — a comment that has drawn backlash from around the world — he would only say: “You’ll have to figure that out.”

Easy. You’re a fucking bully trying to beat up on another bully and discovering this nut doesn’t crack when yelled at, or even bombed.

Obama did this so much better, and he didn’t have the Epstein Files hanging over his head. Sure, that’s gratuitous. Sue me, dear reader.

But only after you run this bozo out of office.

Decimate:

1. history : to select by lot and kill every tenth member of
   decimate a regiment
2. : to exact a tax of 10 percent from
   … poor as a decimated Cavalier …
   – John Dryden
3. a : to reduce drastically especially in number
   An outbreak of cholera decimated the population.
   Kamieniecki’s return comes at a crucial time for a pitching staff that has been decimated by injuries.
   – Jason Diamos
   b : to cause great destruction or harm to
   A fire decimated the city.
   an industry decimated by recession

I’ve noticed the word decimate has been coming into vogue recently. Each time someone on the television uses it, either I or my Arts Editor howls at the television that it’s not a synonym for destroy, but for destroying 10% of something, as a trace of the word’s etymology reveals.

Today, I decided to check it, keeping in mind that a word’s origins are not the last word in definition, but .. oh, you get it. Good.

So, as we see above, the third definition, down in the list, makes their use, well, valid. Those using the word still come across as poseurs, but in our current era that’s hardly a surprise. People claw for recognition these days, from influencers to reporters, because prestige and power can originate from simply rising above the general run of humanity.

Noted in “White House picks a fight over its ‘objectives’ in Iran, but reality stands in its way,” Steve Benen, Maddowblog:

Iran’s navy has certainly been decimated, but the other four objectives — the ones outlined on, to borrow Hegseth’s phrasing, “day one” — have plainly not been met.

I know she’s almost certainly AI, but this one amused me

The questions posed in the initial post on this thread has been avoided as, if my reader was distracted last night, it was announced that Iran and the United States have agreed to a two week ceased-fire and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will not be interrupted.

The questions, being whether or not the International Criminal Court would be issuing a warrant for President Trump’s arrest for war crimes, along with whether or not he would actually try to go through with his threat, were quite fascinating, but I’m relieved we don’t have answers to the Will he or won’t he? If the military had received illegal orders, how would they react?

That said, if we’re to believe Julianne McShane, President Trump may be metaphorically gushing vital fluids out of his spleen:

President Donald Trump’s threats to destroy Iranian civilization have accomplished what nothing over the past year could — turning some of the most prominent voices in his own MAGA base against him.

“This is evil and madness.” “He is a genocidal lunatic.” “Vile on every level.”

These aren’t quotes from Democrats; they’re some of Trump’s most loyal adherents, who are both fed up with what they see as the president’s abandonment of his “America First” platform and alarmed by the destruction he has promised to unleash as his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, looms. [MS NOW]

Not many people are actual sociopaths/psychopaths like President Trump. Most are just people with varying levels of knowledge about what concerns them, and as Trump has paid attention to their concerns and echoed their reasoning back to them, they supported him.

This is true of most of the leaders of MAGA. I was a little surprised to see Alex Jones, who I do take for a psychopath, expressing horror at the above link; there are others, such as the Proud Boys leadership, who may defend the President – or suggest the President is too soft on the Iranian leadership.

But, defenders or not, Trump continues to alienate his base. We may see his approval rating dropping below 30%, a level unheard of in modern American Presidential politics. He’s winning a game he had not planned to play, because winning this one will shorten his Presidential term.

And so long as Speaker Johnson (R-LA) and the Republicans, House & Senate, fail to remove Trump from the Oval Office, they’ll be sustaining reputational damage as the do-nothing political party. Make no mistake, Republican townhalls in all but the most Republican districts will become one-note nightmares:

“Why haven’t you removed President Trump?!”

The leaders who are responsible for the continuance of the Republican Party had best bestir themselves, or they won’t have a Party worthy of the name to lead.

Of course, I may have spoken too soon. This just came up on CNN:

• Strait of Hormuz: Iran stopped oil tanker traffic through the crucial waterway after Israel attacked Lebanon, semi-official news agency Fars reported. According to Fars, just two oil tankers had crossed the strait since the ceasefire came into effect.

Look for more frantic threats from President Trump.

Zeeshan Aleem of MS NOW presents a summary of possible results if President Trump follows through on his threat for tonight, successfully or not:

Even if Trump does order a massive attack on civilian infrastructure, the odds that it will make Tehran budge on opening up the Strait of Hormuz are slim. Historically, the use of air power in this fashion causes the civilian population to side with a government, even one it dislikes, against a dangerous foreign intruder. Iran’s government would be a political beneficiary of such a dynamic. And Trump’s mix of bluffing, extending and disappearing deadlines and sudden attacks means Tehran now refuses to trust the U.S. will keep a temporary ceasefire.

And, should the International Criminal Court (ICC) choose to view such an action as a war crime, we may have served ourselves a deeply unsavory dish: A President, a chronic liar and arrogant, yet clueless, man-child whose greatest un-secret fear may be going to prison and its consequent loss of social prestige. I don’t think there’s any doubt that he’s used the Presidency to insulate himself from incarceration, manipulating a cooperative majority wing of SCOTUS to produce laughable arguments, supposedly of a legal nature, protecting him from the consequences of his own actions.

If the ICC issues a warrant for his arrest and delivery to The Hague in the Netherlands, though, Trump will either run for a country which won’t extradite him, or, more likely at his age, cling that much more tightly to his position, doing just about anything to retain it. The law will not be an obstacle unless law enforcement decides the law is its goal, rather than the President. Which way will that fall out? I don’t know.

This has the potential to get messy fairly quickly, depending on how fast our court system and Congress decide not to bounce the President out on his ear. If they defy my expectations and actually do remove him from office, then he’ll have to be put on trial for war crimes.

That’s all assuming he follows through with his barbaric threat.

When everyone around you has frozen, you know horror is right around the corner.

The Evil Eye (or The Girl Who Knew Too Much; Italian; 1963) chronicles a visit to Rome in the 1950s by a young American girl, Nora. Her aunt dies; she’s mugged; she witnesses a murder, a knife plum in the back; doubting police; noises in the night at domiciles; etc etc.

And all of this, why? I’m not sure. It does seem to belong in the horror genre, but of a different era, as she’s not so much emotionally blasted as puzzled. Wikipedia calls it giallo …

… a genre that often contains slasher, thriller, psychological horror, psychological thriller, sexploitation, and, less frequently, supernatural horror elements.

I didn’t notice any of the supernatural horror elements, but we viewed this a while ago, too, so I may have forgotten them. I recall there’s some spooky noises. Sort of. It’s not all that memorable.

I thought it was well-acted, with a view into the post-war Italian culture. Perhaps the horror is a metaphor for the recent war, or the madness of putting Mussolini in charge prior; however, I have little contact with Italian culture, now or then, so I have no certainty.

And will it appeal to you? Do you like old horror? The answer to the latter may also appeal to the former.

Enjoy.

Sucker Punched

Who are the suckers? Those GOP candidates who depended on the President to see them through to the other side. Instead, gas over $4/gallon, inflation, lack of new job growth, a tremendous punch to the ego of MAGA voters every time they think of the Epstein Files, those same voters hard-put to find any win and hardly has had a chance to become tired of winning, and a foreign war started by a President who spouts semi-gibberish at every opportunity … and apologists who gabble desperately about 12 dimensional chess.

What to do? Descend into Orwellian doublespeak. MS NOW has an article on GOP doublespeak here.

But some of the electorate likes neither Party and are faced with selecting a lesser evil. Indeed, they may be the final arbiter of power in many elections in November. They may have put the Republicans in power in 2024, but given the poor performance of the Democrats, I find it hard to blame them, given the complexities of modern life.

But Republicans are not only performing much worse than the Democrats, they also behave worse as well – inevitable for a group that believes differentiating themselves from professional politicians, in any way, is a virtue. CNN reports on an SSRS poll of interest:

Americans’ views of both the Democratic and Republican parties remain deeply negative, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. And in an election year that may turn on which party voters see as the lesser of two evils, the Democrats hold an early advantage.

About one-quarter of the public holds a negative view of both parties – so-called double haters. Voters in that group prefer the Democrats in the upcoming midterms by 31 points.

My bold. In an environment like this, where things are going to pot and the current crop of incumbents are getting the blame, I’m inclined to believe the deciding factor in any given election is the personal connection voters feel towards an incumbent. If they feel like they have one and it’s positive then an incumbent, Republican or Democrat, may breach expectations and win. Most non-incumbents will lack that connection, although there are exceptions, such as Senator Klobuchar and the Minnesota gubernatorial race.

By positive personal connection I mean the politician convincingly displays concern for citizen problems only soluble through government action, and they’re someone you’d like to talk with over a cup of coffee. The traditional definition, as it were.

This, then, is the problem for Republicans: they’re amateurs. Build a personal connection? Many are tone deaf, contemptuous of their left-leaning constituents, and hastening to display that contempt because that’s what they think politicians should do. You see this, on occasion, from Democrats as well, up to and including Presidents, such as Obama. While a few constituents will like that attitude, many won’t – and those caught accidentally in the metaphorical gun sights may profoundly resent it, and newly appreciate fellow citizens they may have formerly despised.

And, yes, I ranted about this in a separate post, where I noted concrete consequences of amateurism is government, in the form of a Gallup poll, were now appearing.

I Didn’t Think Of This

I don’t subscribe to The New York Times, so I can’t read more than the headline:

Liberal Group Warns That Trump Could Have Two More Supreme Court Picks; Demand Justice plans to tie Republicans running for Senate this year to a possible fight to fill vacancies that could emerge on the Supreme Court

But it’s more or less self-explanatory if you know the context, and the context is simple: President Trump is not running for office in 2026. The history of the Republicans since Trump came on the scene is that his influence is strong but limited. If he doesn’t appear on the ballot, his base, by and large, doesn’t come out to vote for him, but if his name does then they do come out, and vote Republican down the line.

So the solution to this conundrum facing the Republicans, or so they think, is that they’ll get Trump virtually on the ballot by opening up spots on SCOTUS (the Supreme Court of the United States) via conservative wing resignations, and tell Republican voters that if they don’t vote for Trump’s picks for the Senate then the Senate will switch hands and SCOTUS will be at risk of switching hands in the near future.

Presently, conservatives control SCOTUS 6-3, and I’ll skip the condemnation rant of Senator and former Senate Majority Leader McConnell (R-KY). I wrote that years ago and don’t need to boost my blood pressure again.

But past performance is not indicative of future performance. As I noted above, the reputation of President Trump and his Party is decaying quickly as he, and they, make mistake after mistake that endangers the Nation and its prosperity, from tariffs to babying a President who thinks vengeance on enemies is a higher priority than leading the Country. While a Democratic Senate cannot formally emplace Justices on the Court, they can reject Trump’s selections until he stops horsing around or leaves office and is replaced by a President more attentive to the future of the Country.

That, of course, depends on the voters and on the electoral machinery remaining under State control.

Look for Justices Thomas and Alito being pressured to leave, as the eldest Justices. Roberts is also reaching that age; Gorsuch, Barrett, and Kavanaugh are much younger and unlikely to be pressured to resign, unless they rule against Trump on any matter, no matter how small.

Speaking Of That Jump Scare

Frightening voters, as with SCOTUS above, is a time-honored political tactic. In this vein, I’m waiting for Republicans to bring up the Impeachment tactic.

This is mostly a House issue, as Impeachment is a House power, but as I feel 40-60 House seats are

Polls, Polls, Polls?

Yes, polls are being issued. I am not reporting all of them, but I did change my criteria a bit. Respectable pollsters are reported, such as Emerson College or Sienna. Pollsters of unknown provenance to me and not described in some source are ignored.

But what of those known to lean one way or another, such as Rasmussen? I’ve decided I’ll report those if the result is interesting. In the last three, I think, national elections we saw conservative firms skew results in an attempt to influence voters, and, no doubt, attract clients via confirmation bias. I am sure left leaning firms engaged in similar behaviors, based on the number of surprises in the last election.

But if a firm is reporting results contrary to their clients expectations, that suggests a client in deep trouble, even if a general bias is the only a priori knowledge available. That’s worth reporting.

Punched Suckers

Oh, yeah, I’m a delivery boy, aren’t I?

• From the I’m Tone Deaf department:
  

  “Maybe you take one less trip to Starbucks and so that gas goes a little further,” Michele Tafoya said on a radio show recently, advising listeners to be “patriots” and keep a “stiff upper lip” until fuel prices come back down. [MS NOW]

  Tafoya is a GOP candidate for the to-be-open Minnesota Senate seat. I’m sure some GOP voters will be amused, right until it’s fill-up time for them. It’s not so much doublespeak as a contemptuous remark that any voter driving a fossil-fuel vehicle who doesn’t have mounds of spare cash laying around can take legitimate offense at.

  Or eats food.

• According to Emerson College Polling, in Kentucky Rep Andy Barr (R) leads the Republican primary field for the to-be-open Senate seat with 28% of the voters, the next being former Kentucky AG Daniel Cameron (R) with 21%. Leading both, though, is Undecideds, with 38%, so this race is not close to decided.

  Incidentally, remember Elon Musk donated $10 million to a super PAC dedicated to putting Nate Morris (R-KY), “CEO of Morris Industries,” in the Senate? It appears those surveyed are not impressed, as Morris languishes in third with a 15% share of said surveyed.

  In the Democratic primary former Kentucky House member Charles Booker (D) is building a large lead at 36% of Democratic primary voters; former fighter pilot Amy McGrath (D) is second at 18%. Undecideds are at 38%, so there is still room for change.

  The primary is May 19th.

• A University of North Florida poll finds Florida Senator Moody (R) has a lead over her prospective Democratic opponents:
  

  Ashley Moody is up by 8 points against Alexander Vindman, and 7 against Angie Nixon.

  Angie Nixon (D) is a member of the Florida House. The poll certainly suggests the Democrats have a hill to climb. The primary election is August 18th.

Let’s call that a wrap. But I will say that if the Republicans fail to remove President Trump from office, their electoral results do not appear to be promising.

Sometimes you stir the pot and, rather than sinking the paper boat in the cup, a dragon sticks its head out, spouting fire:

Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the Eurasia Group, said that if Iran manages to take control of the Strait of Hormuz permanently, it would be a “colossal win” for the country.

“It’s a massive strategic win, given that Iran has demonstrated that it can close the strait,” Brew told MS NOW. “It’s a huge financial win.”

Brew added that if Iran gains long-term control of the strait, it would be more powerful than it was before the Trump administration attacked it. Iran’s parliament passed a law to begin charging “tolls” of up to $2 million per ship, which could mean as much as $100 billion in annual revenue — or the equivalent of Iran’s current annual oil export earnings.

“It’s not innocuous,” Brew said, referring to the protocol announced on Thursday. “Iran has passed legislation and is now claiming to be coordinating with Oman in establishing joint management of the Strait of Hormuz.” [MS NOW]

Classic stupid amateurism, and, considered from what we knew before Trump’s War began, we knew some sort of unexpected consequence would emerge.

To be honest, regime change, despite the President’s frenzied claims, has not occurred. If it had, then the change from one American Administration to another could be called regime change. The same theocratic/fascist structure is in place in Iran, but some of the faces have changed and its more savage than before. No regime change.

But Iran is not Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. His successor was one of idiot sons, all of whom are now dead, and the organizing principle of Iraq was I want power, and that’s really about it. Iran’s leaders put together a governmental structure and succession planning that had been well thought out – no argument possible, methinks, because we’re seeing it work in real time.

You have to wonder if Trump and his minions looked at Iraq and came to the consensus that a war with Iran would be just like Iraq, only they’d be smarter and not stick around for the post-war draining of the swamp.

And now analysts think the Iranian leadership is learning, gaining, and are worthy of being judged colossal winners. I understand that Idiot Trump is threatening them with horrific disaster if they don’t stop controlling the Straits of Hormuz. My guess is that nothing truly horrific will come of it.

He tried to bully folks who bullied back and have an advantage over Trump: their existential nightmare is worse than his. He just loses reputation and then dies of old age. The Iranian leadership faces massacre by their own citizens, with their families at risk for being their families. They’re cornered rats, essentially.

Trump is foundering on the rocks of Iran, or so will many pundits claimed. But his incompetence to the job has been obvious from the get-go.

He’s been foundering on the rocks of amateurism.

I see Gallup has published its latest poll of the electorate’s Party identification and leanings. It comes out to, in the former case, 30% – 25%, and in the latter case, if push comes to shove, a 49% – 39% lead.

For the Democrats.

Much of the current crop of Republicans are from the MAGA movement, and even among those who are not from MAGA, there runs a strong anti-professional current, a preference for amateurs, as former Speaker Ryan (R-WI) and current Senator Rand (R-KY) will attest.

What is not often mentioned, and should be, is this: Amateurs are often incompetents.

When we use the word amateur, we mean an enthusiast for whatever vocation or avocation, that we recognize is not up to professional standard, but still earns respect for trying something difficult.

But in politics, amateurs in the top ranks of government are not folks to be admired for trying. They are people who, knowingly or not, are endangering the country. For all that Americans see themselves as rough and tough and all that, the truth of the matter is that government provides a stable ground for us to build futures and families on.

And when it’s put in the hands of arrogant amateurs such as Trump and his minions, often people who’ve been sucking down conspiratorial theories since birth, we get the consequent of amateurism: incompetent governance. Similarly, when the Democrats were in control, they pursued some foolish agendas, or pursued agendas improperly, that probably were birthed by amateurs on the left, and when the elections of 2021-2024 rolled over them, I noted the frenzied CYA (cover your ass) excuses (such as “voters are just bigots!“).

Voters are taking it in the teeth, and the Republicans are beginning to risk total dissolution because of their distrust of professionals. The sad part is, of course, that professionals do, from time to time, indulge in unethical behavior.

But the flip side, trusting in amateurs, is proving much, much worse. Both foolish and credulous in the arena of politics and governance, a demented failed businessman has leveraged his acting skills to manipulate them to give him power. Once he has it, his promises go by the wayside and now we face the difficult task of prying him out of power while keeping the nation going.

It’s a mess.

While I’ve not mentioned it much, more or less because it hasn’t come up, I, along with bunches of skeptics, have worried about the conservative assault on what’s known as the Johnson Amendment:

The Johnson Amendment is a provision in the U.S. tax code, since 1954, that prohibits all 501(c)(3) non-profit organizations from endorsing or opposing political candidates. [Wikipedia]

Some religious organizations have considered this an infringement on their free speech rights and have led efforts to repeal it; others have invented ways around it, such as publishing “voter guides”.

But behind all these efforts is An endorsement of a political party based on nothing more than a cleric’s interpretation of Divine will. For new readers, I’ll note that, without any objective evidence of a Divine being, it’s hard to see how clerics can do such a thing. Indeed, given how much contradiction one can find in interpretations of theology, and violence consequent to it, it’s difficult to see such efforts as anything more than the age old pursuit of prestige and power.

One of the unspoken foundations of the United States is rationality. By removing endorsements based on such unverifiable claims as theology, prophecy, and allied claptrap, the United States can instead concentrate on rational analysis. History has proven that a proclamation of Divine favor by a cleric, unverified and unverifiable, and often deeply improbable, can lead to everything up to, and including, existential violence between rival sects.

Truth be told, our perceptions of reality are shaky enough that “rational” analysis will still lead to bone-headed arguments, with more than one side claiming to be science based, others based on stubborn misperception, unearned arrogance, and all that frustrating … glop. But the lack of divine omnipotence motivating sect members into rejecting rationality, compromise, and most other intellectual tools that don’t lead to dominance, immediate and total, will at least give us a chance to craft hard solutions to the difficult question of governance.

Oh, you wonder what set me off? Good news, actually:

A federal judge in Tyler dismissed a lawsuit on Tuesday that sought to allow churches to endorse political candidates without losing their tax-exempt status, dealing a blow to the Trump administration and other conservatives who have worked to eliminate the decades-old law barring nonprofits from supporting political office seekers. [AP]

It’s not the end of the line for invalidating the Johnson Amendment, but at least it’ll keep the peace. Theoretically.

In the ongoing tale of a mountain falling into a molehill comes news of the firing of Attorney General Bondi:

President Donald Trump has ousted Pam Bondi as attorney general.

The president announced Bondi’s exit in a post Thursday on Truth Social, saying she would “be transitioning to a much needed and important new job in the private sector, to be announced at a date in the near future.”  [Politico]

It seems she was deemed unworthy of a sinecure, which have been opened up for former Kansas Gov Sam Brownback (R-KS), former DHS Secretary Noem, and others. Did the former AG not sacrifice enough of her character for the President’s amusement? Or was it her failures to put certain people in jail that sent her to the Outer Hebrides of the President’s appreciative nature?

Bondi obeyed [Trump], engineering leadership changes that resulted in the rapid-fire indictments of former FBI Director James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James. Yet both cases were quickly thrown out after a judge ruled Bondi’s handpicked prosecutor was illegally appointed.

If you’re gonna fail, at least jump out of your biplane with your parachute and hair on fire. Failing due to procedural errors looks like a fat case of incompetence, meaning lost opportunities and your enemies laughing at you.

The future?

Signals of Trump’s frustration and Bondi’s pending demise surfaced this week after reports that Trump met with EPA boss Lee Zeldin and discussed tapping him for the AG role.

The White House and the Justice Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, Trump’s former criminal defense lawyer, will lead the department in an acting capacity, the president said. Blanche has been unusually visible in his role as Bondi’s deputy, embodying a Trumpian pugilism that has endeared him to the president — and raising eyebrows when he suggested the administration was at “war” with the courts.

Which is to say, finding someone with competency, credibility, and credentials is going to be a tough row to hoe. I’m expecting it’ll be someone short on prestige and long on, well, longing. Longing for respect, longing for vengeance on their enemies. And maybe for wealth.

Who’ll be the next to be ejected from the burning plane known as the Trump Administration? It’s hard to say, given the range of folks who should be embarrassed by their behavior, but I think I shall select Treasury Secretary Bessent.

Keep on gabbling there, Mr Trump on the stage, about Trump’s War ending soon.

Don’t mention this:

Donald Trump’s approval rating on the economy has hit some horrendous—and historic—new lows.

Speaking on CNN’s The Odds Wednesday, chief data analyst Harry Enten reported damning numbers for the Trump administration’s handling of the economy. …

… considering the fact that the president has repeatedly claimed to have “defeated” inflation entirely. Meanwhile, the economy in Trump’s first year back in office saw rising inflation, very little GDP growth, and practically no job growth. [The New Republic]

A dot I that should be connected is that the economy pancake is due to Trump’s War. It’s making the cost of transport skyrocket, and cheap transport is an important part of the world economy. The easily predictable cutting of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has caused that jump & bumble of the economy.

And the next dot? Why was Trump’s War initiated? Some of it was cheap glory; an erasure of President Obama’s arguably most important foreign relations accomplishment; but most importantly, it was, along with other nuttiness such as the planned Presidential Library, a distraction.

A distraction from the Epstein Files.

In an era of disrespect for truth and unprecedented literal power in the hands of the arrogant, the innocent are slaughtered, along with the guilty, in the frantic belief that those responsible are somehow entitled.

Keep that in mind.

“I’m Splitting !!!!”

According to this report in MS NOW, the annual CPAC get-together of highly conservative activists displayed splits along the fissure known as Trump’s War. Younger activists were more likely to consider the war a betrayal rather than, to use the language in the report, a reflection of of American Triumphalism’s accomplishments.

This emphasizes the conundrum GOP candidates for office, from incumbents to challengers, must solve in order to win: Are they a young MAGA or an old MAGA, and how congruent will that be for the relevant voter base? Do they dare challenge Trump’s War? Will that split their voter base? Could even Republican incumbents lose if they guess wrong?

In The Mundane Underpinnings Of The World

Here’s the old underpinnings and here’s the new:

• James Byrd (D), a former member of the Wyoming House of Representatives for ten years, with some time spent in leadership positions, has entered the Democratic primary for Senator Lummis’ (R-WY) to-be-open Senate seat in Wyoming. The primary election is August 18th. For the record, Senator Barasso (R-WY) won his Senate seat with 75% of the vote in 2024, so Mr Byrd, regardless of his very real political credentials, has a big cliff to climb against presumed GOP candidate Rep Hageman (R-WY).

  Kudos to Byrd for at least trying.

• 

  On The Issues: Kevin Hern (R-OK).

  Senator Mullin (R-OK) of Oklahoma is no longer a member of the Senate, but Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. He’s also dropped out of the primary race, leaving the field open for Rep Kevin Hern (R-OK). Hern is another far-right conservative, as can be seen in the summation to your right, and might think the Oklahoma Senate seat is in his grasp. He may be right, but between his far right positions, the country’s negative reaction to same, and his lack of incumbency, this may turn out to be a struggle.

  Indeed, voters may wonder why Governor Stitt (R-OK) didn’t appoint Rep Hern to the job. Instead, Governor Stitt appointed avowed short-timer Alan Armstrong (R-OK), who is an energy company executive with no legislative experience.

  Now, I don’t think Democrats have much of a chance to flip the Oklahoma seat, but the Governor’s move was not calculated to maximize the Republican opportunity to retain that bit of furniture; it smacked more of repaying a favor. On the other hand, House Speaker Johnson, faced with the edge of a cliff, may have requested Rep Hern not be appointed due to Johnson’s own precarious position as a Speaker with virtually no majority.

• Senator Tillis’ (R) to-be-open Senate seat in North Carolina may come under the control of the Democrats next January, as two three polls give former Governor Cooper (D) a sizable lead over former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. The first is unknown-to-me Harper Polling, which was founded for Republicans, so when they give Cooper a substantial lead, I take it seriously. The raw poll doesn’t appear to be available, but the 270 to win website points at this article:
  

  With primary season officially over in North Carolina, all eyes are set on North Carolina’s US Senate race. According to the latest Carolina Journal Poll, a survey of 600 likely North Carolina voters, Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper (48.9%) leads Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley (41.1%) by 7.8 points. Among registered independents, Whatley falls further behind with 32% support versus Cooper’s 52% support. [The Carolina Journal]

  The balance of the cited article is devoted to describing why North Carolina Republicans are in deep trouble. The most important part might be that last sentence, though: Among registered independents, Whatley falls further behind with 32% support versus Cooper’s 52% support. Independents hold the balance of power in most States, so when a candidate, or a candidate’s Party, becomes disapproved by the independents, they are in trouble.

  The second poll is listed as Healthier United North Carolina Statewide Survey[,] Presented by Morgan Jackson, Nexus Strategies and Paul Shumaker, Strategic Partners Solutions. They may be Democrat-leaning, I’m not sure, but they claim Cooper’s lead is 50%-32%, which seems absurdly large in Republican-controlled North Carolina, but not impossible.

  The third poll, just in, is from similarly unknown Catawba College Polling, but working with respected YouGov, and gives Cooper a 14 point lead:

  The survey also finds that Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley in the early horserace numbers for the U.S. Senate election, 48 percent to 34 percent among likely voters (including those who initially said they were undecided but lean toward a candidate), with 14 percent undecided.

  Could this be the early signs of an immense rejection of Republican culture and positions? North Carolina does not have a reputation as a nest of nasty liberals, but rather conservatives who pride themselves on good sense. The report also indicates a rejection of Trump and his policies is spreading throughout North Carolina. I still don’t see a move into the Democratic column, but if a credible third party achieved a popular centrist profile, I could see North Carolina moving in that direction.

• Alaska Survey Research gives former Rep Peltola (D) a five point lead over incumbent Senator Sullivan (R) in Alaska, 49%-44%, in the general election, and the same margin, 46%-41%, in the jungle primary. Top four finishers in the primary move on to the general election, and the general election uses ranked-choice voting to select the winner.
• Although this Quinnipiac University poll is not directly applicable to Senate contests, it’s a possible indicator of where things are going:
  

  If the election were held today, 51 percent of voters would want to see the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives, while 40 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control of the House.

  Among independents, 57 percent would want to see the Democratic Party win control, while 26 percent would want to see the Republican Party win control, with 17 percent not offering an opinion.

  It’s true the House generates more noise and reason worthy of despising than the Senate, but it’s still going to be a matter of concern to the Senate GOP caucus. Acting as if impotent will win no friends, and that’s been happening in the Senate.

• I’m not sure about the credibility of The Alabama Poll, not having heard of it in prior elections, but I thought this report on the GOP primary is interesting. To remind the reader, I initially said,
  

  Steve Marshall is running for this seat, and he’s also held various positions in government related to the legal field. His strongest primary competition may be Rep Barry Moore, who sports an endorsement from President Trump. There are other Republican candidates, but they don’t seem to have relevant experience or potential to challenge Marshall or Moore.

  Is Rep Moore, Trump-endorsee, running away with the nomination, as he should if we are to believe Trump endorsements are gold?

  No. Here’s The Alabama Poll intro:

  Key Finding: Three candidates are statistically tied in Alabama’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate — Barry Moore at 22.8%, Steve Marshall at 20.7%, and Jared Hudson at 19.0% — each within the poll’s ±4.0% margin of error, with 34.5% of voters still firmly undecided. The conventional wisdom holds that President Trump’s endorsement and over $6 million in committed outside spending have effectively decided this race. The crosstabs disagree. I [Michael Lowry] follow the data. Right now, the data says the conventional wisdom is wrong.

  

  On The Issues: Rep Barry Moore. (R-AL).

  Bold not mine. I missed Mr Hudson‘s popularity to the GOP ranks; follow his link to see what little Ballotpedia has on him. But the real story here is the low polling numbers of the three leading candidates; Undecided is really leading the pack. As I’ve noted elsewhere, the Trump brand on your backside is no longer perceived as a guarantee of quality by those who might vote in a GOP primary; what will happen in a general election?

  At present, despite Moore’s weak result, I anticipate we’ll have a Senator Moore (R-AL) come January, no matter how extremist he may be; see the summation on the right. But it’s not impossible that one of the other two Republican candidates will beat him in the primary.

  The Democrats, however, have put up nobody with elective experience, and I do not recognize the names. It’s hard to imagine a Democrat winning this seat. The primary election is May 19.

And that’s it for this week. It seems to be quite a beginning surge for Democrats, but we’ll see how it goes.

Or maybe Quote of the Day, but it’s just too embarrassing. From Truth Social via Jordan Rubin:

Birthright Citizenship is not about rich people from China, and the rest of the World, who want their children, and hundreds of thousands more, FOR PAY, to ridiculously become citizens of the United States of America. It is about the BABIES OF SLAVES! We are the only Country in the World that dignifies this subject with even discussion. Look at the dates of this long ago legislation — THE EXACT END OF THE CIVIL WAR! The World is getting rich selling citizenships to our Country, while at the same time laughing at how STUPID our U.S. Court System has become (TARIFFS!). ‘Dumb Judges and Justices will not a great Country make!’ [MS NOW]

It’s a bit like a pilot jiggling a lever while muttering It went up last time I jiggled this! but not noticing the plane’s engines fell off, only Trump’s levers are labeled Mendacity and Menace. Trump is shouting in demented anger because the world refuses to go his way, and meantime a jet fighter labeled Epstein Files is still trailing him. Getting anywhere beyond that is a puzzle.

I do wish I knew a scholar of Old Rome in order to discover if the last of the old Roman Emperors ended up shouting gibberish at the sky, crying for Jupiter to make what he cried so, so futile, so demented.

Yeah, you see something like this and you have to wonder how the Trump Administration continues, much less making war on Iran, proclaiming victory, claiming negotiations, and much else.

How much longer can MAGA tolerate him? Their chances to redeem themselves by protesting in front of the White House is slowly running out.

This is a reminder of what’s coming in a month or three.