Author Archives: Hue White

Some folks overindulge:

“I believe there’s a concerted effort between Democrats and the mainstream media that’s openly biased in their favor to discourage the Republican side” – Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).

For those of us who’ve developed a sensibility towards ego overwhelming rationality, a point-of-view that I’ve come to late in life, this seems a matter of a man clutching desperately after his position of prestige as Speaker of the House, even in the strength of a withering reality; and recall, he was a mere back-bencher before elevated to the coveted, by some, seat of Speaker with President Trump’s help.

But I don’t take his statement seriously.

It’s been a while since I’ve written in the Water, Water, Water thread because of the political situation, but Arizona potentially poses an interesting political question. First, let’s set the table:

As the Colorado River shrinks and a Southwest “megadrought” drags on, water is top-of-mind in this sun-seared state. Cities are bracing for cutbacks. Farmers are letting fields go fallow. Neighborhoods are revolting against data center projects they say will hog resources.

And politicians are talking about water like never before. The traditionally wonky topic has become a major issue in midterm races, showcasing just how concerned the public is about the Southwest’s water future.

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) and her allies are spending millions on ads saying she will “fight to ensure Arizona’s water is for Arizonans.” Her challenger, Rep. Andy Biggs (R), has blasted Hobbs’s handling of Colorado River negotiations and discussed the merits of “desal” — short for desalination — from the debate stage. Mayes, the attorney general, has mentioned water in almost all of her ads this election cycle and plans to focus on it in her closing spot this week. [WaPo]

So let’s say the worst case scenario occurs, the drought continues, corporate America is successful in plundering the water under the surface for its data center or other ventures, farms fail and food transport becomes more and more expensive.

And the heat of climate change becomes unbearable.

People stream out of the State until it becomes depopulated.

So … at what stage does a State transition back to territory? Would it be merged into a neighboring State? Abandoned, which may be a hoary old American tradition?

Or would the political positions, two Senators and a mandatory single Representative, become valuable targets of the Parties? Would the Parties pay Arizona citizens to stay so they can vote on these valuable prizes, an income stream for the eternally heat-stroked?

Preparation will be all-important.

For your reading pleasure …

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle blasted “armchair experts peddling their baseless speculation” and said Trump “is laser-focused on maintaining Republican majorities in Congress this November, which is why he is traveling across the country highlighting the historic victories his Administration has delivered for the American people.”

“The choice has never been more clear: doubling down on President Trump’s winning, commonsense agenda or the Democrats’ extreme liberal policies and obstruction,” Ingle said.

“Those who are actually involved with Republicans’ midterm strategy remain laser-focused on winning races and are confident we are still in a position to protect and expand our majorities,” said RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre. [Politico]

There have been many members of this ancient order attendant on autocrats. Not many had notable careers once the utility of their racing mouths has ended.

As we approach what may be the end-stage of the Trump Administration, which will be dependent on the magnitude of the success of Democrats in society, and how much Republicans still in Congress after Congress’ Inauguration Day in the first week of January are ready to impeach him, I think investors are becoming uneasy concerning the future of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT).

First, back on 25 September the value assigned to DJT by investors was $9.14/sh. Now, on last Friday, here’s the 1 month chart:

DJT investors, this is not good unless you’re shorting the stock. It’s down ~24%.

Second, Bitcoin prices have been holding relatively steady at about $81K to $82K/coin. $TRUMP? At the same time, it appears to have been around $2.08/coin. Today? $1.70/coin. That’s an 18% drop in value.

But that’s not the only relevant news, and while it pains me to mention this, it doesn’t surprise me. Trump Media & Technology Group is not doing well.

Traffic to Truth Social fell more than 30 percent in the year ending in September, according to an analysis by digital intelligence firm Similarweb. The platform averaged about 260,000 daily users last month, down from a peak of 420,000 in June 2025. [WaPo]

That is an ominous sign. Some of this may be the reported drop in traffic from Russian-based ‘bot accounts following a Ukraine strike on a Russian computer center, as I imagine some supporters might argue, but that’s a shallow argument, because why should Russian robots constitute such a large segment of his Truth Social readership?

Are they just deliberately inflationary of Truth Social’s traffic? Either way, there appears to be some controversy over the basic claim.

And then what other sources of income are there for Trump Media & Technology Group? There’s the Truth API service, exorbitantly priced, but that’s quite dependent on an influential President Trump, and right now he’s showing himself not to be influential, as proven by his inability to boost endorsed candidates in the polls, and candidates staying away from him.

It’s a bad look.

I’m just an obsolete software engineer with no training, licenses, or bonding as a financial advisor, so get yourself a financial advisor. But for me, I’m so glad I chose not to invest in DJT, a company with little in the way of prospects, and I’m so sad for the investors taken in by this President.

Because, in my opinion, this is ending in a crater.

MAYBE NOT NOW

Every Update seemingly contains a description of Donald J. Trump as an anchor around the collective neck of the Republican Party. Let’s skip it today and I’ll just leave sources. Honestly, he and his minions are simply overwhelming in their mendacity, their lack of honor, and their incompetency, and  days come more frequently where recounting the latest morbid, discouraging tale of their profound inadequacy, whether they’re members of his Cabinet or of his staff, seems inordinately redundant and tiresome.

• Lying: Affordability, Deals,
• Economic outlook: CPI.
• Corruption: WaPo.

KEEPING ON KEEPING ON

The last place a passenger jumped to freedom.

• The left is exercised concerning Minnesota Senate candidate Michelle Tafoya (R):
  

  “I’m a pro-choice Republican,” she claims in her latest campaign ad, titled “Independent Voice,” which dropped over the weekend. “I’m not afraid to stand up to my party. When Trump is right, I’ll work with him. When he’s wrong, I’ll stand up for Minnesota.”

  And yet …

  “I’m a first trimester gal [when it comes to abortion rights], if you want to call it that,” Tafoya said in May 2026 on conservative political commentator Matt Christiansen’s show. [HuffPost]

  But will Minnesotans accept that this means she’s for abortion rights? Or take that to mean she’s against?

  She has a new burden to bear as well: President Trump’s endorsement. She was evasive concerning the endorsement, since rejecting it or even appearing ungrateful might cost her votes, yet welcoming it could also cost her votes. Rock, meet deep blue sea.

• In Texas, Marist Poll (A- with a Democratic tilt) has a poll congruent with many other polls, giving Senate candidate James Talarico (D) a 47% – 45% lead over Ken Paxton (R). The MoE is close to monstrous, however, at ±4.9 points, leaving this a statistical tie.

  Unknown pollster The Texas Politics Project estimates Talarico’s lead at 50% – 47%, with a MoE of ±3.34 points. However, without information concerning the pollster, it’s a little hard to know how to take this, except to note the numbers are, again, broadly congruent with most other polls, and it’s a statistical tie. Money quote:
  

  91% of Talarico supporters and 84% of Paxton supporters said they were not very likely or not at all likely to change their minds.

  Pundits and Trump-watchers, at least of the adversarial sort, are chattering that Trump has begun the process of disavowing responsibility for an imminent loss in Texas, casting aspersions on … soon-to-be-former Senator Cornyn (R).

  Sadly, and very stupidly, John Cornyn, and his Liddle’ Buddy, Super RINO, Karl Rove, are doing everything possible to make it hard for Ken Paxton, the Greatest Attorney General in the History of Texas, and one of the Best in the United States, to win the upcoming Midterm Election against a Radical Left Lunatic, James TalaFREAKO, who is the ANTITHESIS of Texas Values. [Truth Social]

  Yes, President Trump, or his delegate, remains completely innocent of class and grace. He seems to think piling the spite and childish name-calling deep enough is somehow a winning strategy. It illuminates his deep-seated failings as an adult, however.

  I remain gobsmacked over the tsunami of money descending upon Texas.

  James Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter of the year, his campaign announced — the largest fundraising haul on record for a U.S. Senate candidate in any state for this period.

  Talarico, an Austin state representative, has been a prolific fundraiser throughout the race. His latest haul is more than triple what his opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton, raised across the same period. Paxton brought in $18 million, by far the Republican’s best quarter, from July through September. [The Texas Tribune]

  But does this much money really make a difference in an election? Or, it’s crossed my mind to ask, is it all a sophisticated quasi-grift by the media to relieve frenzied billionaires of their wealth? Has anyone asked, oh, Elon Musk?

  Elon Musk‘s team reached out to Republicans in late August to discuss a train wreck they all saw coming: Unless the GOP poured more money into Texas immediately, the state’s Senate race could be lost in a matter of weeks.

  Why it matters: That chat set in motion a massive rescue operation for Republican Ken Paxton funded substantially by Musk, the party’s largest donor, who gave $158 million in September alone. [Axios]

  As much as I’m inclined to agree that money matters, its impact declines as those dollars that went before increase. And it reminds me: When all you know are hammers, all your problems appear to be nails. If that doesn’t make sense, visualize Republicans frantically throwing rolls of $1 bills at a rampaging T-Rex.

• We don’t hear much out of Nebraska, which is understandable given it ranks 38th in terms of population, resulting in only two Representatives, along with the two Senators. That means reading between the lines is sometimes necessary. For instance, this:
  

  The Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Senate Republicans, has committed an extra $8 million to support Senator Pete Ricketts in the closely contested Nebraska race. This additional funding brings the total planned expenditure to $15 million, underscoring the competitive nature of the election where Ricketts faces independent candidate Dan Osborn. Osborn, a former union leader, is posing a significant challenge in a race that has seen polling margins within a few points. The funding decision appears to reflect Republican efforts to maintain control over a seat previously deemed secure, highlighting the stakes as both parties vie for influence in the 2026 midterms. [Crypto Briefing]

  Crypto Briefing does the reading for us, actually. Senator Ricketts should have been a shoe-in by Republican theory, so what went wrong? The performance of the Republicans in Congress, both tangible and intangible, has been no better than wretched. I blame their failures on the epistemic bubble they’ve hidden away in for decades; Democrats have been moving the same bloody way. For Republicans, the curse has been former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (R-GA), who railed against compromise and traditional politician metrics; for Democrats it’s been an allegiance to identitarian politics. The result? Nebraskans may be the group that gives the lesson, demanding good or great performance from their politicians, or out they go. Of course, some citizens keep electing the same tired politicos, but this cycle may see the ejection of even those, those who’ve been asleep at the wheel, or worse.

  But both Parties, aware or not, are at risk of being replaced.

• Speaking of reading between lines, Axios (paywall) reports Republican strategist Chris Grant has been sent to work on Kansas Senator Marshall’s (R) campaign. Does he have enough insight to save a Senator with an unsavory past and weighed down by his association with a foolish President? That’s an awfully big task.

  This doesn’t help Senator Marshall’s reputation, even though it’s relatively ambiguous. Or is it taking the worst possible interpretation and inflating it? It’s hard to say.

• In Maine Suffolk University (A- with a Democratic tilt) has another poll result, giving Democratic candidate for the Senate seat Troy Jackson (D) a 49% – 47% lead over Senator Collins (R). The balance are undecided or didn’t answer. No MoE is provided, but a sample size of 500 is a trifle on the small side; Maine ranks only 42nd by population size, so the sample may still have a reasonable MoE.

  Maddowblog notes Senator Collins had at least one error in her last debate of this election run.

• TIPPER-TOPPER … UH, TUPPERWARE? In Iowa, Marist Poll (A- with a Democratic tilt) estimates Senate candidate Josh Turek (D) leads Rep Hinson (R), 48% – 45%, but with a large MoE of ±6.6 points. Even with an A- rating, what’s the point of releasing such a poll? Still …
  

  Independents who are likely to vote break for Turek (51% to 31% for Hinson). A 29-point gender also gap exists.

  That’s what may defeat Rep Hinson (R).

• In New Hampshire, we’re faced once again with the efficacy question: Does a Republican endorsing a Democrat mean anything to a voter? In this case, it’s a bit of a surprise for me, and a lot of other people:
  

  In a surprising development, Don Bolduc of Stratham [, New Hampshire], the Trump-endorsed Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, is leading a group of GOP figures and prominent independents backing Democratic Senate candidate Chris Pappas of Manchester. [New Hampshire Union Leader]

  The article has a speculative explanation.

• Arkansas has another Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll, which suggests Senator Cotton (R) now has a 50% – 41% lead over challenger Hallie Shoffner (D), with a MoE of ±5 points. This is an inflation of the Senator’s lead in last month’s results from the same pollster. This may be an example of money winning an election:
  

  Cotton’s [campaign] has outspent Shoffner by a 65-to-1 margin in this race. That edge is not all due to Cotton’s own fundraising either, as he has also benefited from outside spending by super PACs and other Republican groups flush with cash thanks to outsized spending by Elon Musk. [Arkansas Times]

• If you’re seeing polling from Mississippi showing Democrat Scott Colom down only three points to Senator Hyde-Smith (R), keep in mind the pollster is unknown Wedgewood Polls. With no history, it’s hard to say if they report accurate results or not.

HERE AT THE FINISH LINE

Republicans at least are recognizing they’re in trouble, although their solution, which appears to be Spend more money and either disclaim Trump or Send in Trump!, is absurd on its face. I’ll grant, though, that the necessary self-surgery, which consists of taking out their own liver-equivalent, seems implausible at this juncture.

But Trump’s remark concerning the last strategy, found at the above link, I found odd:

Trump: “Jon Husted — I heard he went up 9 points yesterday. I did the rally for him”

Which is ridiculous, yes. But in the background of the accompanying picture, there’s … Natalie Harp, notorious for her work as an aide to President Trump.

It occurred to me to wonder – Trump says all these ridiculous things, but are they his ideas, or Harp’s?

Hopium:

Hopium is a portmanteau of the words “hope” and “opium” used to describe a fictional drug to help one stay hopeful in times of stress. … [KnowYourMeme]

Cute, I like it. Noted in “The Post-Midterms Scenario No One Believes Will Happen… But I Kinda Sorta Think Maybe It Will Happen,” Daniel W. Drezner, Drezner’s World:

Of course, Democrats be Democrats, so they’re gonna be worrying until November 3rd. This is why the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World is launching its exposure therapy series. But occasional whiffs of hopium are also useful this time of year. If — I said if — Democrats absolutely crush the midterms, what would that mean for American politics for the next two years? Surely a midterm where Democrats win in Texas and Kansas would require some political resets, right? Right?!

In case my reader missed it, the show has been cancelled. Not the execution, just the show.

Steve Benen suggests polls deterred the President:

The statement appears to resolve a burgeoning debate and bipartisan backlash over the kind of public display that is ordinarily limited to countries like Iran and the Taliban-led Afghanistan.

Trump’s decision came just hours after a nationwide poll released by The Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos found that 80% of Americans opposed livestreaming Hasan’s firing squad execution.

But it’s worth noting that Trump is a self-proclaimed branding expert, and executing a man in a wheelchair on a livestream would have added a repulsive facet to the Trump and Republican Party brands – as the cited polls suggest.

But by cancelling the show due to polls, rather than common decency, does suggest both men are not up to the moral standard required of their elective stations. It’s a disappointment that Speaker Johnson (R-LA) lacks the backbone to initiate the necessary proceedings.

That being President Trump’s dementia.

Q: You said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but both sides said they have not agreed to thatTRUMP: Well they agreed, you know why? Because I said 'you agree.' That's why.

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2026-10-12T21:05:00.750Z

Q: You said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, but both sides said they have not agreed to that

TRUMP: Well they agreed, you know why? Because I said ‘you agree.’ That’s why.

Imagining himself supreme, or chanting, surreptitiously, to God for what he wants. Your choice, reader, or come up with an explanation of your own. The two I’ve offered are congruent with the evidence, and plausible.

The failure of VP Vance to remove him from office is political malpractice.

DO ANCHORS INGEST FOOD AND GROW?

According to the Pew Research Center, they do.

Three-in-ten Americans now approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 68% disapprove.

Trump’s approval rating has dropped substantially over the course of his second term – his current rating is comparable to the lowest rating of his first term (29% according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in the days between Jan. 6, 2021, and the end of his first term).

Confidence in Trump’s handling of several key issues, including the economy, foreign policy and immigration, is also lower than at the beginning of his term. Also, most Americans (69%) say they have little confidence in Trump to keep his business interests separate from his presidential decision-making.

Republican candidates’ worst nightmare, in a phrase, is the Trumpian anchor around their necks. Still, they have three weeks to separate themselves from President Trump and hope for the best. I believe Congress is not in session until the green lands of post-election appear, so they can’t just impeach him and then beg forgiveness from the electorate.

The Democrats’ nightmare? What much of the independents might call call the loony left. The counterbalance? Former President Obama. The Republicans have no counter, as Presidents Trump and Bush were wretched failures.

IT’S SO EASY TO SASHAY AWAY

Trump is making it easy to walk away, too.

Even many who’ve come to expect Donald Trump to kowtow to Russia’s Vladimir Putin were taken aback on Friday afternoon, when the Republican president announced an agreement to import Russian diesel fuel to the United States despite his own country’s sanctions policy. The Treasury Department soon after said it had unilaterally decided to lift existing sanctions on Russian diesel exports.

Trump didn’t stop there. On Friday night, he offered his effusive thanks to the Russian dictator; on Saturday afternoon, he called on Ukraine to get a new president; and on Saturday night, he proceeded to trash Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly while defending Russia’s desire for peace despite all evidence to the contrary. [MS NOW]

His allegiance isn’t to the Republican Party or the United States. It’s to his own vision of wealth, and if that requires him to abandon American allies and snuffle up to autocrats, he’ll do it. This is what we’ve seen with NATO, Ukraine, various autocratic nations, and our Middle East allies, as well as individual Republicans who he viewed as no longer useful.

So will Republicans abandon him? While a majority of their base will stick with them even as they learn to despise President Trump, the independents are much less likely to do so. They’re more likely to switch their votes, or sit it out.

THE ORGAN AT THE FUNERAL

… has funereal tones. Here’s one:

JUST A REMINDER …

“MoE” means Margin of Error. Pollster ratings courtesy Silver Bulletin.

CORGIS LIKE TO RACE

If I’m to believe the local horse track, at least. Otherwise, here’s the previous Campaign Update, delivered by a cowboy on a corgi.

• Candidate for the position of Senator from Texas Ken Paxton (R) keeps opening his mouth, which it turns out is a sure-fire way for him to get in trouble on the campaign trail:
  

  Republican U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton suggested he would support cuts to federal benefits programs during a private fundraiser with Washington lobbyists last month, according to an audio recording obtained by The Texas Tribune, the fourth leaked clip from the Sept. 24 event.

  In response to a question about reducing the federal deficit, Paxton said: “Making some reasonable cuts to mandatory spending — you’re gonna have to do it. Or there is no solution. That’s just the reality. We have to suck it up.” [The Texas Tribune]

  Notably, he doesn’t address the other side of the equation: raising taxes. Cleaning up after the politicians’ spendthrift ways requires consideration of both cutting spending and raising taxes.

  Trump’s War, aka the unnecessary attack on Iran, as well as Putin’s War, or the Russian attack on Ukraine, has been a drain on American munitions stores, so some cuts on military spending I’d ordinarily favor might be less than wise. Which is why I have no interest in an electoral position.

  Paxton’s definitive failure to mention raising taxes, and including his rejection of the option, should be considered an automatic disqualifier for the position he seeks in the Senate.

  I wonder how he’d comment on the Epstein Files?

  Meanwhile, his competitor from the Democrats, James Talarico, has returned from …

  “After holding more than 100 public events and meeting with tens of thousands of supporters, James came down with the flu but will be back on the trail soon,” Talarico spokesperson JT Ennis said in a statement to The Dallas Morning News [here].

  Sounds like what happened in the week following my marriage. I listened to Mr. Smith Goes To Washington (1939), but I didn’t watch it – my sinuses hurt too much to bear the glasses I then wore.

  Finally, Siena College (A-rated, with a slight Democratic lean) estimates Talarico continues to lead Paxton, 48% – 44%, but has a largish MoE of ±4.4 points, and Quantus Insights (B/C with a substantial Republican tilt) gives Paxton the lead at 47.2% – 46.7%, MoE of ±3.6 points for a statistical tie in both pollster’s measurements.

• The Teeter-Totter Tippers Again: In Iowa, Emerson College (A with a slight Democratic tilt) reports its latest results to be Rep Hinson (R) leading 47% – 45% over Josh Turek (D), with a MoE of ±3.8 points. Iowa is generating enough statistical ties in the Senate race that I’m convinced that we won’t know the identity of the new Senator from Iowa until the one official poll is conducted.
• It’s nearly the same in Maine, where a Washington Post/Schar School poll (B/C, slight lean Republican) gives Troy Jackson (D) a 50% – 46% lead over incumbent Senator Collins (R). The MoE is given as ±3.6 points, so this isn’t a statistical tie – but we can see it from here.
• In case you were wondering, no, Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead (D) is not dropping out of the Montana Senate race. But she’s certainly attracting hate-mail from … Democrats:
  

  The chair of the Montana Democratic Party resigned the position Monday and became the latest Democrat to endorse an independent candidate over the party’s Senate nominee, Alani Bankhead.

  Erstwhile chair Shannon O’Brien wrote on MS NOW that there were “real questions” about Bankhead’s “commitment to protecting a woman’s right to choose, her support of working people and her views of people living in poverty.”

  She joined fellow Montana Democrats, including former senators Jon Tester and Max Baucus, in endorsing independent Seth Bodnar instead. [WaPo]

  I have a friend in Montana who is a Bankhead backer and is pissed off at the Montana Democrats, but I have no opinion on the matter myself. Right at the moment, it appears the Montana Democratic Party is burning down.

• Minnesota has a poll that’s not from SurveyUSA, but from Mason-Dixon (A-, with a minor Republican lean), headlined The Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota poll, showing Lt Governor Flanagan (D) pulling ahead of Michelle Tafoya (R), 47% – 43% with a MoE of ±3.5 points, in the race for the State’s to-be-open Senate seat. But don’t assume Tafoya is finished just yet, as any sort of disaster on the Democratic side of the Minnesota ledger could cost them this seat. For the moment, I see this as a probable, but not guaranteed, Democratic win.

  If this race ends up being as close, in the end, as it’s promising to be, this’ll be a message to everyone that what is perceived as incompetence is not acceptable, at least not in Minnesota. This is in reference to the welfare fraud recently discovered. Paired with the similar message going to the Republican candidates who appear to have failed themselves, on multiple matters, into losing electorally, and us voters had better see some brisk and immediate reformations in both Parties.

  Or there may be new Parties.

• In what’s becoming an occasional entry of this feature, here’s some wry trivia from Kansas:
  

  Republican Sen. Roger Marshall settled his debts this weekend with a bakery in Kansas after a bill for hundreds of treats his campaign ordered for a 2020 event sat unpaid for six years.

  Holly Thomas, the owner of the shop that made cookies, brownies and cupcakes for Marshall’s primary election watch party, said in a social media post on Friday that she will not vote for the senator in this year’s election, where he is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, after he failed to pay the $678.75 he owed her small business.

  “This isn’t about political parties or policy disagreements. It’s about my personal experience as a small business owner and the importance of honoring financial commitments,” Thomas said. “That experience is why Roger Marshall will never get my vote.” [CNN/Politics]

  Senator and Doctor Marshall (R) might consider taking a photo of himself in handcuffs, as happened to some of his own patients at his instigation.

  LATER: The wry feelings are fading away as more news related to the above comes out:

  A Star analysis found that as a rural Kansas doctor before voters sent him to Washington, U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall charged an unusually high interest rate on patients’ unpaid bills, compared to other Kansas physicians and medical practices.

  Marshall, a Republican incumbent seeking re-election, has faced sharp criticism in the month since The New York Times revealed he sued more than 700 patients over unpaid bills ranging from several thousand dollars to as low as $101. Eighty-one former patients were arrested after failing to appear in court.

  Marshall has dismissed the outrage as a political stunt and defended his debt collection practices, calling them “very common.” [The Kansas City Star via msn]

  This feels like the tapping on a nail that happens to be going into a coffin.

  InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic tilt) sees a tight statistical tie with Hamilton leading, 47.5% – 46.7%. The MoE is a smallish ±2.83 points.

• IT’S A HARBINGER OF THE FUTURE … But exactly what does it imply? I can’t help but wonder how Senator D. Graham (R) of South Carolina feels about this post-debate, uh, praise:
  

  Graham avoided another major flub [CNN/Politics]

  In a bigger font as well, which I’ll spare the reader. Here’s WaPo’s coverage of the debate. I’ll continue to consider South Carolina a toss-up.

• National Public Affairs (B/C) has Senator Ricketts (R) of Nebraska leading Dan Osborn (I), 46% – 43%, with a MoE of ±4.0 points, so it’s a statistical tie. An interesting tidbit: The makeup of the respondents is Republican, 53%, Democrat, 26%. As in the previous report by YouGov, given the variance between between that and the measured intention of voting for Senator, this should be considered a warning to Senator Ricketts and the Nebraska Republican Party leadership.

JUST FOR LAUGHS:

For four days, a Republican super PAC ran its latest attack ad against Maine Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson, who is challenging incumbent Sen. Susan Collins in the November midterm elections.

The only problem was that the ad did not run in Portland, Maine. It ran in Portland, Oregon. [MS NOW]

The PAC blames a vendor. Was the vendor secretly a Democratic plant? It sure seems like there’s a big wave of Republican blundering.

EVER ONWARDS

I hope not. I wonder if this electoral season will be used as a basis for a television series?

Moreton wave:

A solar tsunami–formally known as a Moreton wave–is a giant, fast-moving wave of hot plasma and magnetic energy that ripples across the surface of the sun. The shock front is taller than Earth, moving faster than 1 million mph. [“A SOLAR TSUNAMI,” Dr. Tony Phillips, Spaceweather.com]

I know little of heliophysics, so this is new to me. Regular old tsunamis are often triggered by underwater landslides, although earthquakes can trigger either the landslide or the tsunami.

I think.

The link states solar tsunamis are triggered by solar flares, so I have to wonder how good an analogy this might be.

… and someone should so inform President Trump.

President Trump, as has been noted in the media, is continuing his persecution of Lisa Cook, Ph.D., current and first Black member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. While there’s much yammering about alleged mortgage fraud, I found this to be of interest in the announcement of a committee to investigate, created by the President:

As President, it is my job to ensure the laws are faithfully executed, including by firing subordinates who cannot be trusted to tell the truth and follow the law.

Here’s the thing: I do not believe Mz Cook is a subordinate. After all, she, and other members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, can not be fired “at will,” as they say in the private sector; procedures must be followed, on the one hand, to find cause, while on the other members may only serve one full term. The Board serves as an entity independent of the Administration for the good of the Nation, and the President’s relentless railing about dropping interest rates, which, according to the Fed, would make for even worse inflation, demonstrates the wisdom of keeping the Fed independent of  Presidents and Administrations, whether said Presidents are feckless or not.

Trying to draw examples from the private sector is a mistake when the context is so different.

Hopefully, during the following legal battles, the use of subordinate will be corrected to a more accurate term. Legal systems often turn on such niceties.

Just imagine this balloon flower is a sheep. A really smart sheep. — Mr. AllergicToLawsuits.

Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (2026) is the latest contribution to a collection of animated vignette montages and movies that chronicle the lives of a rather obtuse Farmer, whose name I’ve never picked up on, and his ongoing travails of various sorts; his dog, Bitzer, who is excessively fond of his whistle and hat; and the flock of sheep, as well as other animals, under their care.

Shaun is the smartest of the sheep, organizing them for such things as visiting the City, doing battle with the Pigs, cropping the grass, and competing in pseudo-Olympic Events. His brilliance is balanced by the flock, who often fail to appreciate his industriousness and insights. This leads to a certain wryness in those tales.

But … Mossy Bottom lacks these and other elements from the earlier episodes and tales, and relies on audience knowledge in a world of no guarantees. I’ve seen most of those previous shows and, well, I was disappointed in Mossy Bottom.

It feels like a checklist movie, where someone (not original creator Nick Park) put together a list of points on which the movie should touch, wrote a script embodying those points with only a superficial regard for the Shaun the Sheep mythos, and then made it. The result is a loss of a body of emotional knowledge critical to the story: Shaun’s eternal struggle with the flock’s ambivalence concerning his intelligence, the Farmer’s angst with his lack of female interest, Bitzer’s frantic efforts to keep the Farmer from learning of Shaun; the Pig herd’s struggle to screw over the Sheep.

The absence of these elements robs the story of a necessary piquancy, the extra sympathy with struggles of the characters with the defining themes.

All that said, there is a lot to like in Mossy Bottom, from a plot with some satisfying twists to a spot-on rendition of a  veterinarian, if lacking a good, quirky theme of her own.

But the lack of insight into what makes for a successful Shaun the Sheep tale is a significant drag on this tale. Kids may not notice it, but adults who’ve appreciated Shaun since his first appearance will be disappointed in this by-the-numbers effort.

Here’s something my Arts Editor called ‘trash art.’

The latest in midterm election maneuvering:

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s confirmation Thursday that the firing squad death of the Fort Hood mass shooter will be livestreamed was swiftly met with bipartisan outrage and questions over how the public execution will be carried out.

Firing squad executions are rare in the US (though they have been sparingly used as an alternative to lethal injection recently,) and public displays of the death penalty are even less common. The last public execution is considered to be the 1936 hanging of Rainey Bethea, a Black man from Kentucky who was found guilty of raping a White woman by an all-White jury.

About 90 years later, on December 3 at 1 p.m. local time, the public will be able to watch Nidal Hasan’s death at Texas’ Fort Hood, where he killed 13 people in a 2009 mass shooting. [CNN/Politics]

OK, the Secretary is putting a criminal in a wheelchair and ordering soldiers to shoot him. Parts of the world will be inflamed, Americans of anti-death penalty sentiment will be angry, and the fact that Hasan’s in a wheelchair, to the rational-minded an irrelevant fact, will still touch the heart of anyone with sympathy for the disabled.

This sounds like a misstep to me. What’s up, Secretary Hegseth?

To my mind, Secretary Hegseth is fulfilling the role of tough-guy Department of Defense Secretary. Remember, his most recent job or two have consisted of fulfilling dramatic roles: Secretary of Defense, Fox News host. He knows his boss, President Trump, the guy who decides whether or not he keeps his socially prestigious job, functions mostly on the plane of drama, of visual effects.

And President Trump is in trouble. The Party he supposedly leads is going down in flames in the mid-terms, if polling and special election results are trustworthy indicators, and the humiliation may be crippling. It’s not impossible that the Party even may begin a very public dissolution.

This televised execution will, I think it’s hoped, stir up and thereby gel the Republican base, as they must do to shrink Democratic margins, as well as attract independent voters still angry over Hasan’s barbaric slaughter of his fellow soldiers. I expect the Democratic base will pay attention, but few, if any, will switch their vote because of Hegseth’s spectacle. But it may attract dormant Republican voters who prefer strict punishments for destructive individuals.

It’ll be used to promote certain politics, and that may be dicey. If Trump is too closely associated with the execution, it may drive tentative Republican supporters away, especially if the event is not treated with the proper gravitas. Will it be? Despite the experience of Hegseth and Trump in drama, neither seems to have much of an understanding of how certain societal events must be treated with dignity; trying to further one’s political views by publicly executing a criminal, even one as evil as Hasan, isn’t classy.

But then, no one’s accused Trump of being classy. He tried a war to distract the citizenry, and that made things worse. Now he’s trying an execution. I doubt this’ll work out any better.

Just a picture or two.

Fortuitous timing.

Our Arts Editor says our produce is scant this year, but the squash was unplanned, perhaps its mother seed a gift from squirrel or bird.

Thorough readers may recall my semi-facetious suggestions, in this post, that President Trump’s actions regarding certain Republicans are part of a false flag operation, which is to say Trump is actually a Democrat in disguise, working to destroy the Republicans.

Perhaps I should say completely facetious.

But  now the semi-legendary Democratic strategist James Carville has weighed in:

Democratic strategist James Carville questioned President Trump’s midterms strategy as Republicans face a rocky political road this election cycle.

On a Thursday episode of his “Politics War Room” podcast, Carville and co-host Al Hunt discussed Trump’s controversial statements regarding Iran potentially striking Los Angeles and San Diego, prompting the strategist to ask if the president “trying to lose.”

“I mean, there’s nothing that he does that’s consistent with trying to win, and [there’s] probably not much he can do. He is the central issue in the campaign, he dominates everything. But I got to keep asking: Is he trying to do this? Does he just want to screw the congressional Republicans? Does he hate them?” Carville said. [The Hill]

Nice to see Trump’s behavior called out as puzzling by someone else.

And, yes, he may hate congressional Republicans. But, look, Trump is a near-iconic example of hyper-individualism, out only for himself and, maybe, for loyal family members. If he perceives screwing a “fellow” Republican as profitable for himself, he’ll do it – because, in his mind, there is no “fellow.”

Add in a bit of dementia, a bit of raw fury that someone dares challenge him, and his drive to be the best in God’s eye – see Chad Bauman – and his behavior becomes sensible.

Welcome to the scorpion, Republicans. Gingrich sets you up, Trump knocks you down.

THE PEELING OF THE ROTTEN BANANA HAS BEGUN

Or so it seems to me. Concurrently, there’s a feeling of a threatening wave about to come down on all of us. The changes that a Republican reformation might wrought could be highly important.

A REMINDER

MoE means Margin of Error; pollster ratings are taken from Silver Bulletin.

THE PEELS ARE FOUND HERE?

Either that or wood shavings from the last edition.

• In Kansas Pastor and perhaps future-Senator Hamilton (D) has picked up another Republican endorsement, this from former Governor Mike Hayden (R):
  

  I ran for office for the first time when I was only 28 years old because I felt the person representing my community in the legislature was failing to fight for the needs of our state.

  Today, I am endorsing Adam Hamilton for the U.S. Senate for the same reasons. [The Wichita Eagle]

  That’s the second of that particular sort. Senator Marshall (R) may have made some enemies in his own Party. This is particularly important:

  We also need a senator who understands compromise and bipartisanship are not weaknesses, but strengths. …

  Adam’s experience as the pastor of the largest United Methodist church in the country — a church that is made up of equal parts Republicans, Democrats, and Independents — makes him uniquely prepared to go to Washington and bring people together around the solutions we need to solve our nation’s biggest problems, whether it’s the Farm Bill or reducing the national debt.

  Everyone needs to help cleanup after the toxic personalities in Congress are kicked out, and there’ll be enough compromise to enrage ideologues on both sides.

• In Maine, Marist Poll (A- with a slight Democratic lean) gives Troy Jackson (D) a 51% – 47% lead over incumbent Senator Collins (R) with a MoE of ±3.8 points.

  The Maine People’s Resource Center’s (B/C with a slight Democratic lean) latest poll gives Troy Jackson (D) a lead of 49.3% – 46.5% with a MoE of 3.8%, so a statistical tie.

• Sometimes I think Donald J. Trump is a false-flag operator working for the Democrats:
  

  President Donald Trump took a sundown fight with Sen. Tom Cotton public on Saturday.

  The president posted on social media what appeared to be the Arkansas Republican’s cell phone number, expressing anger over the senator’s opposition to legislation making daylight saving time permanent. [MS NOW]

  How will this help Senator Cotton (R) fend off challenger Hallie Shoffner (D)? Or is the play to gin up sympathy for the helpless Senator from Arkansas?

• Yeah, false flag operator. See, Senator Husted (R) of Ohio can’t be happy with him, either:
  

  President Donald Trump defended the unpopular data centers that power the artificial intelligence industry as he campaigned in Ohio on Saturday with a vulnerable Republican senator who is trying to overcome voters’ concerns about the hulking complexes.

  Speaking shortly after Sen. Jon Husted, Trump decided to address the prickly topic.

  “We want them,” Trump said of data centers. “Look, there’s so much money to be made for Ohio, you can’t just turn them off. They’ll go to China.” [San Juan Daily Star]

  It’s as if he’s visiting Carthage with a bag of salt over his shoulder.

• CROCODILE TEARS PRACTICE: Texas AG and Senate candidate Ken Paxton (R) has a complaint to register:
  

  Ken Paxton is less than a month out from the conclusion of a D.C.-outsider campaign for a Texas U.S. Senate seat that he privately admitted is being run by Washington.

  “I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it’s all coming — you know — from D.C.,” Paxton said during a small fundraising event last month, according to an audio recording obtained by POLITICO from a person in the room who does not support Paxton, and verified by another attendee.

  “I don’t control message or what we’re doing.” [Politico]

  It’ll be interesting to see if Texans respond to what appears to be weak whining. It doesn’t help Paxton that President Trump, professional false flag participant as noted above, is calling for a debate:

  Trump’s call for Talarico to “immediately report to a Debate Stage” — meant as a jab at the Democrat’s absence — put the spotlight instead on Paxton, who has not publicly accepted any invitations for an onstage faceoff. [The Texas Tribune]

  Unknown pollster Texas Public Opinion Research gives Talarico a 45% – 40% lead, with a MoE of ±3.4 points.

• A note of concern is sounding in South Carolina:
  

  The main super PAC supporting Republican Senate candidates plans to inject $5 million into the South Carolina campaign as an “insurance policy” to help GOP nominee Darline Graham, a source familiar with the move tells Axios. [Axios]

  This may turn out to be critical.

  Graham won that primary over Rep. Ralph Norman with 52% of the vote after getting help from Trump. It left some bad feelings with Norman, who endorsed her but briefly suggested he would mount a write-in campaign for the Nov. 3 general election.

  There is a price to be paid for manipulation, if the manipulated notice. I think South Carolina will be a very close race. Steve Benen has more here.

• Is Mississippi’s Senator Hyde-Smith (R) electorally vulnerable?
  

  Now Colom, the 43-year-old district attorney for several counties in northeast Mississippi, has top Democratic officials and donors increasingly hopeful that he could pull off the inconceivable and use this year’s poor political environment for Republicans to win a Senate race that just a few months ago was nowhere to be found on the party’s 2026 plans.

  Colom’s campaign against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) remains a long shot for the party, especially because Democrats are not as flush with campaign cash as they were in past elections and face a growing list of expensive targets in the fight to take back the Senate. [WaPo]

  Is the Senator panicking in response? This sure sounds like a smear.

  Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith suggested that supporters of her Democratic challenger in the upcoming U.S. Senate race may have been involved in a 2023 shooting targeting her. …

  In the recording, Hyde-Smith can be heard discussing a “guy who shot at us” with another person. A spokesperson for her campaign confirmed that she was referencing an October 2023 shooting near her home in Brookhaven. The U.S. Capitol Police, which investigated that shooting, did not return calls or an email to comment on the status of that investigation. [Clarion Ledger via yahoo! news]

  The lack of polling in this State makes assessing the Mississippi races a difficult proposition in this Election of Rejection & Change.

• The gap in the New Hampshire Senate race may be stretching. Saint Anselm College (A/B with a slight Republican tilt), working for the AARP, gives Rep Pappas (D) the lead over former Senator Sununu (R), 51% – 44%. Among independents, he leads 57% – 37%. This is the profile I expect to see among victorious Democrats in swing States. AARP commentary here.

  Rasmussen Reports (B+, strong Republican tilt) estimates

  The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 49% of Likely New Hampshire voters would vote for Pappas, while 44% would vote for Sununu.

• In Iowa Suffolk University (A- with a slight Democratic tilt) has taken a measurement and gives Josh Turek (D) a 48% – 44% lead over Rep Hinson (R), which is a reversal of fortunes, at least on Suffolk University’s track. Money quote:
  

  The most recent poll showed Turek is leading 58%-30% among those likely voters who consider themselves independents, …

• Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed (D) is attracting a lot of attention.
  

  Kash Patel’s FBI slammed Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed in a wildly partisan, and likely illegal, propaganda video Tuesday.

  In a two-minute video posted on social media, the supposedly nonpartisan agency decried “democratic socialist leaders” for calling to defund the police. The video included footage of multiple Democrats calling to defund the police, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, current and former Representatives Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, Cori Bush, and Ilhan Omar, and, of course, El-Sayed, who is running for office in November’s midterm elections. [The New Republic]

  Keeping in mind this Administration’s lack of allegiance to truth, I would be very hesitant to believe anything from Patel.

  Former Rep Rogers (R), El-Sayed’s opponent and avid Trump ally, is suddenly stepping on Trump’s toes.

  Michigan Senate Republican nominee Mike Rogers broke with President Trump on Wednesday over the trade war with Canada, the latest step to distance himself from the administration’s economic agenda in the tight battle against progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. [The Wall Street Journal]

  The data center-happy President may also dislike this:

  Trump imposed a 50% tariff on roughly $20 billion worth of Canadian goods this summer, which Rogers defended as necessary for Michigan manufacturing. In recent months, Rogers called for a quick end to the war in Iran and a one-year statewide moratorium on new data-center construction, both of which he had previously defended.

  I wonder if GOP internal polling shows El-Sayed building a lead?

  Quantus Insights (B/C, substantial lean to the Republicans) would disagree. They estimate El-Sayed’s lead is within their MoE, which is a ridiculous ±7.8 points, at 47.6% – 46.5%.

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (A-), working for NBC6/Telemundo, estimates Senator Moody’s (R) lead over State Senator Angie Nixon (D) to be a substantial 50% – 40% in Florida. This race is near finished, I’d say.
• YouGov (B, Democratic lean) is giving Dan Osborn (I) a 48% – 47% lead over Senator Ricketts (R) in Nebraska, with a MoE of ±3.3 points. Among their findings is a distaste for political parties: 43% of respondents have a Very unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, 42% the same for the Republicans. As Democrats make up only 26% of the respondents, this has some dire implications for the Republican Party.

THE TIDE MAY BE GOING OUT

Political analysts are beginning to acknowledge the imminent clubbing of the seal we call the Republican Party. Here’s a summary of the Cook Political Report:

Senate contests in Kansas, New Hampshire and North Carolina shifted toward Democrats, with top election prognosticator Cook Political Report predicting the party could now pick up six seats in November. [Forbes]

It’s a bit out of date and it cites the poorly rated St. Pete’s Polls (C+), but it remains a usefully conservative summation, appropriate when election politics and prediction is your dinner ticket. Unlike me, a working dude spewing out analysis based on 40 years of casual observation.

But since I’m the writer of this missive, I will say that I expect calamity will befall the Republicans in a month or so, a prediction which I’ve been making ever since it became clear the GOP Congressional caucus is principally made up of amateurs, far right hard-liners, and self-interested grifters who don’t know the first thing about legislating.

Add in their submissive attitude to a President whose narcissism, arrogance, confidence, and consistent failures are rivaled only by each other, and it wasn’t hard to predict this disaster. The real variable, in fact, is the Democrats. How bad are they? Will they be perceived as being effective?

Their tactical position, of course, is poor, but I think they’ve done OK at highlighting the profound failures of the Republican Party. Is that the perception of the electorate?

We’ll have to wait to find out.

FIN

Unless Florida’s inclinations suddenly change, I do not anticipate reporting on Florida; I see it as a Republican safe seat, although polls of Florida are scarce and generally not predictive of final results.

It may not be what half of Americans were waiting for, but it remains … very cool.

Astronomers say they have directly detected the first-ever radio emission from a planet outside the solar system. The signal, however, is evidence of a colossal magnetic field — not intelligent life.

“I know radio signals are associated with searches for extraterrestrial intelligence,” said Edo Berger, a professor of astronomy at Harvard University. “But this is something very different.”

The discovery, described in a new paper awaiting publication in a peer-reviewed journal, traces repeating radio bursts that appear to come from the exoplanet Beta Pictoris b, located 63 light-years from Earth — a short distance, astronomically speaking. The gas giant, about 12 times the mass of Jupiter, is one of three planets orbiting a young star that is 1.75 times as massive as the sun. [KIMT3 News]

Republicans have been doing so, fitfully and reluctantly, ever since Donald J. Trump began running for reelection, which is approximately two days after he was sworn in to the office of the President.

In 2017.

We saw it in the announcements of Republican officials, both obscure and prominent, proclaiming their refusal to support Trump, and often not to support Trump-aligned candidates and actions. While important symbolically, they only go so far, and polls didn’t really show them working, with the exception of special elections.

But now we’re seeing the beginnings of a wave of repudiation of the amateurism, extremism, and corruption that’s moved into the heart of the Republican Party.

President Donald Trump has never had worse poll numbers with his base than he does ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

And a growing volume of polls shows a significant portion of that base is preparing to cross over and vote for Democrats.

New York Times-Siena College polls released over the weekend showed between 9% and 16% of Republican likely voters said they favored the Democratic nominee in five key states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas.

And these aren’t the only polls to show a sizable crossover effect — especially in the middle of the country.

All told, Democratic candidates have led among GOP voters by double digits in four key Senate races, and they lead by an average of at least 9 points in seven of the top 10 races, according to a CNN review of polling in each state. [CNN/Politics via yahoo!news]

Now comes the painful scraping of the infection, full of pus and regret. I fear we’ll see some violence, but hopefully it’ll be isolated and quickly stifled.

And I expect the Republicans will do quite well in these elections. But will the independents, and what does that mean? That’s a question we may have to answer by ’28.

Charism:

Charism is not easy to define. I offer this as a simple definition: charism is a gift from God for the church and the world, given as different ways of living out the Gospel. [Sr. Annie Klapheke, SC, Archdiocese of Cincinnati]

First time I’ve seen that one. Noted in The Weekly Dish’s LoC (Letters of Comment, old and probably obsolete terminology) column. For younger readers unfamiliar with the concept, Andrew Sullivan interacts with readers in the old-fashioned manner. The question regards how to be a Catholic as a gay man.

With grace. That’s the short answer. The long answer is partly what the book will try to explain. I regard my sexual orientation less as a burden than as a charism. How I got to that place is the dynamic of the book.

But these entrails are not for the traditional special elections. Instead, they’re for interpreting the public’s reaction to the RNC (Republican National Convention) of a few weeks ago:

The president raved about the event’s success as “a solidly sold out winner for Republicans” in a Truth Social post — despite reports of many empty seats.

Polling numbers in the weeks since have also painted a vastly different picture. RealClearPolitics’ Generic Congressional Vote, which averages results of other major polls, showed Democrats at 50.5 percent and Republicans trailing at 42.1 percent Tuesday.

It’s a steep increase from September 7 – two days before the convention – when Democrats held 48.1 percent compared to Republicans’ 42.3 percent. [Independent (U.K.) via yahoo!news]

This isn’t really surprising, but it may serve as a counterweight to Harry Enten’s observation that Republicans outperform polls in elections – which gives right-wing pundit Erick Erickson some relief in what must be a very stressful two years in his life.

But the Republican base is learning how badly an amateur President underperforms required standards, and my guess is that they’d rather survive in humility than go down in a burning zeppelin while giving liberals the finger.

Whether they’re ready to reconsider the tenets of their lives is another question, and I don’t think liberals are yet ready, either. But after some leakage, it’ll be reform or be replaced by a new Party on either side.

In the meantime, this report suggests to me that Americans are appalled at the President, and the reports of North Carolina being lost, of Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, and Alaska being in trouble are real, that Trump campaigning in Oklahoma could even be read to suggest that Oklahoma’s wavering – which I doubt!

All speculation, but soon enough we’ll learn.

Sitz Bath:

A sitz bath is a warm water bath you sit in to relieve discomfort in your perineal region. Soaking this area in warm water relaxes your anal sphincter, which helps increase blood flow through your anal tissues. This promotes healing and reduces the pain, itching and irritation felt due to various health conditions. [Cleveland Clinic]

For a visual, you can sit through this video from the Our Restoration Nation folks. The mention and visuals is roughly here.

FROM HERE ON OUT

It seems likely that from now ’til Election Day there shan’t be many surprises left to happen with Senatorial candidates. It’s quite unlikely anyone will drop out, or almost as unlikely to change a position. However, many States will see more political ads, and the more perceptive candidates may try softening positions, even public displays of humility, in order to appeal to independents. Of course, they run a risk of losing their base, Democrat or Republican, as the base of each Party does love absolute positions.

More’s the pity.

The President is another story. He is neither a regular American politician nor a rational person. He’s a narcissist, driven by base urges: retribution, vanity, avaricious, and something for which I lack a single word, an urge to get God’s eye through acquisitiveness, if Chad Bauman’s theological upbringing theory for the President is accurate.

So, for those of us of a rational mien, the next four weeks or so could be an unsettling exercise in self-glorification.

THE REASONABLE PLEA

Columnist George Will of WaPo is pleading with voters:

Vast Republican carnage should not be entirely indiscriminate. Two Republicans especially deserve to win their Senate contests.

If Mike Rogers, former seven-term congressman and chair of the House Intelligence Committee, is not Michigan’s next senator, Abdul El-Sayed will be. The Democrat is comfortable in the company of antisemites and Holocaust deniers.

If Sen. Susan Collins loses in Maine, this will be partly because she did something admirable and senatorial. Standing against manufactured hysteria, she voted to confirm Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. In 4,192 words spoken on the Senate floor, she examined his extensive judicial record and the sexual assault allegations against him. Demonstrating the complete lack of corroborating evidence, she concluded that the allegations could not meet even the minimal “more likely than not” standard. Read her statement and marvel at its sobriety about the Senate’s “advice and consent” duty. This is vanishingly rare among incumbent senators of both parties.

While certainly liberals and independents have been given good reason to be infuriated at Republicans who tremble before billionaires who may hold the power of social position and prestige over them, voting in support of those who seem moderate also sends a message supporting more moderate positions. Yes, that’s tautological.

The question then becomes whether or not Will’s candidates are truly moderates.

For Will, Collins is a moderate, but it sure seems like she supported an unrestrained President most of the time. Add to that her advanced age, which always begs for a minute examination of her behavior in order to detect a faltering intellect, and suggestions of corruption, and one must wonder if it was truly wise for the Maine GOP to nominate Collins yet again.

In Michigan, voting for Senator may be a bit of a mug’s game. Dr. El-Sayed (D-MI) has no legislative experience that I’ve seen anywhere, and may in fact be, through association, an anti-semite. Much of the left, which is not the same as Democrats, may be comfortable with that, but most independents won’t be.

On The Issues: Mike Rogers (R-MI).

But former Rep Rogers (R-MI) is no rough gem for independents or even moderate Republicans, as can be seen in the On The Issues summation to the right. He’s a far right wing ideologue, and so should not be attractive to thoughtful voters.

Any good independent candidates in Michigan? There are four minor party candidates, but none appear attractive. Michigan voters, you have my sympathies.

JARGON NOTE

Below, “MoE” mean margin of error.

AND THEN THERE’S NEWS

I’ll try to be the soul of brevity with poll results, which are numerous for certain Senate races. Within each State I’ll sort them by pollster history rating, obtained from Silver Bulletin. Other gossip might provoke me to comment. Y’all need the last batch of ephemera? Here it is.

A summary of the below might note that it appears races are tightening; or pollsters are exerting themselves to drag voters to desired candidates. I have no independent evidence for the latter.

• 

  On The Issues: Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan (D-MN), “Moderate Liberal.”

  In Minnesota, InsiderAdvantage (B+ with a slight Democratic tilt) has Lt Gov Flanagan (D) leading Michelle Tafoya (R), 46% – 45%, certainly a statistical tie, although no MoE provided.

  Flanagan’s On The Issues summation is displayed to the right, but, on review, it appears to be based on a paucity of evidence.

• In Iowa, The New York Times/Siena College (A) suggests Rep Hinson (R) leads Josh Turek (D) 48% – 47%, with a MoE in the ±4.5 point range.

  Fox News, using Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A- with a Democratic tilt), estimates Josh Turek (D) leads Rep Hinson (R) 49% – 47% with a MoE of ±2.5 points.

  Quantus Insights (B/C with a solid Republican tilt) gives the lead to Rep Hinson, 47.1% – 45.8%, over Turek, with a MoE of ±3.8 points.

  All of the above are statistical ties.

• Maine’s Senator Collins (R) leads Troy Jackson (D), 48% – 46% with a MoE of ±2.77 points, according to co/efficient (B, strong Republican tilt).

  CBS News, using YouGov (B with a Democratic tilt), has Jackson and Senator Collins tied at 50%, with a large MoE of 4.7 points.

  The Trafalgar Group (B with a substantial Republican tilt) has another statistical tie, Jackson ahead 46.2% – 45.9%, with a MoE of ±2.9 points.

  The AARP, using FabrizioWard/Impact Research (probably B/C with a very slight Democratic tilt, but the names don’t quite match those in the Silver Bulletin database) gives Jackson the lead as well, 50% – 47%, MoE of ±3.1 points.

  Unknown pollster Wedgewood Polls gives Jackson a 52% – 48% lead, but with a monstrous MoE of ±4.9 points.

  See the above section concerning a plea, if you will, by columnist George Will. No pun intended.

• Michigan remains a tight race. Fox News, using Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A- with a Democratic tilt), puts Abdul El-Sayed (D) and former Rep Rogers (R) in a statistical tie at 50% – 49%, respectively, with a sampling error of ±2.5 points.

  The Trafalgar Group (B with a substantial Republican tilt) gives El-Sayed a 46.9% – 45.1%, with a MoE of ±2.9 points.

• Texas state AG and Republican nominee for Senate Ken Paxton (R) is the star of yet another article chronicling dubious behavior:
  

  Instead, records show, the conservative firebrand announced his bid on Fox News, cleared his calendar and booked a hotel in Augusta, Georgia, during the storied Masters golf tournament, a trip that cost Texas taxpayers at least $25,000.

  The trip reflected a transformation that has unfolded over Paxton’s 11 tumultuous years as Texas’ top law enforcement official: His focus has increasingly extended beyond state lines. As he steadily built a national political profile and became a star in President Donald Trump’s MAGA universe, Paxton traveled frequently and spent less time in Texas, according to an Associated Press review of state and campaign records. [AP]

  Paxton doesn’t understand how to attract and influence voters; he depends on their trained response to his skills of proclaiming his allegiance to anti-tax, anti-regulation, anti-abortion, and other Republican tenets, and that they’ll ignore his self-indulgent behaviors. Their training may be fraying, if I read the poll responses rightly, as they discover that blindly voting for politicians solely on the basis of what they spout into the microphone does not result in reasonable choices. Will these misbehaviors be enough to drive away Texas voters?

  Will his antagonist, James Talarico (D), misinterpret a victory to mean a Texas endorsement of his progressivism?

  The New York Times/Siena College (A) suggests Talarico’s lead over Paxton may have expanded to 51% – 45%. Given a large MoE in the range of ±4.5 points, this is still a statistical tie.

  Fox News, using Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research (A- with a Democratic tilt), gives Talarico a 51% – 48% lead over Paxton. USA Today notes,

  Talarico has the support of 98% of Democrats and 68% of independents, while 89% of Republicans back Paxton, according to Fox News.

  I view this as a protest vote against Paxton.

• In Ohio, The New York Times/Siena College (A) gives Senator Brown’s (D) a lead over Senator Husted (R), but at only 49% – 46%, meaning it’s a statistical tie.

  InsiderAdvantage (B+ with a slight Democratic tilt) estimates this race has tightened up to the point where former Senator Brown leads Senator Husted 44% – 43%, MoE being ±2.83 points. That’s not in accordance with other polls showing Brown with a tangible lead, i.e., outside the MoE.

• In rarely polled South Carolina, InsiderAdvantage (B+ with a slight Democratic tilt) suggests Senator D. Graham (R), sister of the late Senator Lindsay Graham (R), and appointed to the position, to be in deep trouble, as they estimate her lead to be 46% – 45%, with a MoE of ±2.83 points, which results in a statistical tie. This is a shocker for Republicans.

  President Trump’s endorsement of Graham?
  

  Almost 10% of Republicans say they are voting for the Democrat. This is likely a “hangover” with Republicans devoted to Ralph Norman from a race that is too fresh in their minds to forget.

  Not as effective as he likes to pretend.

• co/efficient (B, strong Republican tilt) estimates Nebraska Senator Ricketts (R) now leads Dan Osborn (I), 45% – 40%, with an MoE ±2.92 points. The Senator has an unfortunate net likability of -7 points, but Osborn is in worse shape: -13 points. The pollster does not speculate as to the source of dislike.
• In Alaska’s Senate race, The New York Times/Siena College (A) has former Rep Mary Peltola (D) leading incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R) by a substantial margin of 50% – 43%, with a MoE of … between 4.5 and 5.5 percentage points … which seems rather large.

  In contrast, Quantus Insights (B/C with a strong Republican tilt) has Senator Sullivan leading former Rep Peltola, 46.1% – 45.5% in a statistical tie. Money quote:
  

  … Peltola holds a 22-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

• The New York Times/Siena College (A) estimates Senator Marshall (R) is tied with Pastor Adam Hamilton (D) at 45% apiece in the race for the Kansas Senate seat.

  co/efficient (B, strong Republican tilt) sees Senator Marshall leading Pastor Hamilton, 49% – 44%.

  In contrast, The Trafalgar Group (B with a substantial Republican tilt) gives Pastor Hamilton the lead, 44.4% – 43.5%, with a MoE of 2.9 points.

• Danny Cherry Jr makes the case for an upset in the Louisiana Senate race.

FIN

There’s not much to summarize here. The Minnesota estimates speak to Flanagan’s involvement, as Lt Governor, in the Walz Administration, and the associated failure to stop welfare fraud before it ever got started. Fair or not, I suspect it’s influencing a race that would otherwise be a sleepy election of a Democrat to a safe seat.

This speaks to general American revulsion at corruption in the government. President Trump, of course, is a walking pit of corruption; MAGA and the Republican Party, both through association and independently, are considered corrupt; and voters are wary of corruption in both parties.

This news story …

The Trump administration, acting in defiance of top Democrats on the House and Senate foreign affairs committees, has stripped tens of millions of dollars in U.S. military assistance from European and Middle Eastern countries and will give those funds instead to conservative-leaning governments in Latin America, three U.S. officials told The Washington Post.

The State Department notified Congress of its intentions in September, prompting Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-New York) to place a hold on the diversion of funds.

Late Wednesday, the administration quietly notified Congress it was defying the hold and moving ahead, diverting to Panama, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia $52 million that had been approved for Slovakia, North Macedonia, Tunisia and Iraq, the officials said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss security matters.

It is the latest move by the Trump administration to reduce U.S. spending or troop deployments in Europe and coincides with a Pentagon review that could result in a reduction and realignment of U.S. basing on the continent.

It is also a continuation of President Donald Trump’s undercutting of the legislative branch’s spending powers, a core constitutional authority that Trump has challenged in ways big and small. [WaPo]

… may prove to be the excuse for impeaching the President, post mid-terms.

Not to suggest he has a pristine record. There are many reasons to impeach him. But this one is clear-cut that it is in violation of the Constitution, and should be traceable to the President. If he follows his typical behavior of blaming it on an underling, then you impeach him for repeatedly hiring / nominating incompetents.

The metaphorical ruler-wielding nuns must be set loose on this Administration.

And, advertised to voters, while it’ll drive some voters away, others will be attracted: a clear and purposeful crime, and a chance to end the embarrassment of this Administration.