So we hit them, they hit us and everyone else they hate, and then Israel’s tangled up with Hezbollah.
Hezbollah joins conflict: Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah said it launched “missiles and a swarm of drones” at an Israeli army base for the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It’s the first rocket fire by the group since 2024.
What’s next?
Briefings undercut White House claim: Pentagon briefers acknowledged to congressional staff that Iran was not planning to strike US forces in the Middle East unless Israel attacked Iran first, undercutting the administration’s claim of an imminent threat from Tehran as a reason to launch strikes, according to sources. [CNN, same link as above]
Oh, my. If this is so, then Trump is no better than President George Bush, et al, circa 2003, and his invasion of Iraq on trumped up – excuse me – claims that President Hussein of Iraq had, and was going to use, weapons of mass destruction (better known as WMDs).
Not that the current House GOP caucus is likely to hold President Trump to the law, but I do want to say that if Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) does not want his name associated with dishonor and an utter failure of morality – and even governance – then he had best consider ordering the House’s Rules Committee to begin an impeachment investigation. When word of such an order reaches President Trump the screaming will be cataclysmic, but quite possibly followed by a flight out of town, and then out of the country, by the man claiming to be President and fixer of everything.
Just sayin’, Mike. Mike?
What else? A simple headline will do:
Oil surges and stock futures tumble after strikes on Iran
Well, yes. That’s no surprise in the wake of gCaptain’s multiple reports of the impact of the exchange of weapons fire on the regions shipping. Here’s an early report in which gCaptain is channeling Bloomberg:
Oil and gas tankers are increasingly avoiding the Hormuz shipping strait that links the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the open seas after the US and Israel bombed Iran, with a large number of vessels holding outside of the waterway while some already transiting have turned back.
Ships reported hearing a radio broadcast purporting to come from the Iranian navy announcing that transit through the Strait of Hormuz was banned, and while there hasn’t been any official communication from Iran on the status of the waterway, most shipowners are taking a cautious approach. The US earlier issued a warning to shipping in the Middle East that vessels in the region should stay 30 nautical miles away from its military assets.
Delivery delays will boost prices. That will profit those producers who can still trade freely without threat, meaning Russia, the primary export of which is oil, and its President Putin must be a bit frustrated, seeing as they are under both sanctions and attack from Ukraine’s sea-going drones.
And by Belgium??
Insofar as stocks tumbling, of course. Investors love predictability; war is chaos. Some investors will go looking for bargains, but the great majority will simply worry about losing money. And what of the computer algorithms that drive some trading? Wars must be an unusual glitch in their data streams, presenting rare challenges.
But this report may be a bit more surprising, again gCaptain channeling Bloomberg:
The ability of the US, Israel and Gulf Arab states to weather Iran’s retaliatory strikes will depend on how many missile interceptors they have — and stocks are most likely dangerously low after intense combat with the Islamic Republic last year.
Tehran’s main means of offensive operations is long-range attacks with ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, all of which it launched after Israeli strikes in June 2025.
Unless you’re a missile producer, or work for such an employer, or work in military logistics, you may not think about the cost of a single missile, offensive or defense, and the time it takes to produce them, which I understand takes more than a year for a single missile; we’re not talking about World War II bombers in factories. And what is the potential usage rate?
Defending against such weapons requires an even bigger number of interceptors — typical military doctrine calls for firing two or three at each incoming target to maximize the chances of hitting it. Stocks of missile interceptors could be in danger of running low within days if the intensity of current Iranian attacks persists, according to a person familiar with the matter.
“Missile interceptors are a big concern, particularly anti-ballistic interceptors,” said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center. “We are using these interceptors faster than we can make them.”
But does Iran really have that many missiles? Iran’s not a small nation, with a military they understandably keep well supplied, as the Middle East has a very long history of war.
But they’re also corrupt, sanctioned, and near-broke.
If we suffer a successful strike on a naval asset, then we’ll know that President Trump’s frantic desire to divert the public’s attention from his many scandals and public leadership failures, or what might even be his desire to be seen as leading the nation to a glorious victory a la Hollywood, has instead resulted in the deaths of American service members who were ordered into an undesired war under specious reasons – an illegitimate war for the second time this century by a Republican.
While Russia has its own munitions problems and is unlikely to take advantage of a potentially rash draw down by Trump, China is notably on the sidelines. Their problem have more to do with sudden senior officer inexperience and a President trying to slap down potential coups. Not that I expect anything to happen.
But events could get unexpectedly explosive.
Yes, yes, my own blog says it’s a lot harder to do than to say, especially for a Party weighed down with incorrect or inapplicable tenets, obdurate in refusing to admit to failures, and apparently unappreciative of the wisdom of 
