DO ANCHORS INGEST FOOD AND GROW?
According to the Pew Research Center, they do.
Three-in-ten Americans now approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 68% disapprove.
Trump’s approval rating has dropped substantially over the course of his second term – his current rating is comparable to the lowest rating of his first term (29% according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in the days between Jan. 6, 2021, and the end of his first term).
Confidence in Trump’s handling of several key issues, including the economy, foreign policy and immigration, is also lower than at the beginning of his term. Also, most Americans (69%) say they have little confidence in Trump to keep his business interests separate from his presidential decision-making.
Republican candidates’ worst nightmare, in a phrase, is the Trumpian anchor around their necks. Still, they have three weeks to separate themselves from President Trump and hope for the best. I believe Congress is not in session until the green lands of post-election appear, so they can’t just impeach him and then beg forgiveness from the electorate.
The Democrats’ nightmare? What much of the independents might call call the loony left. The counterbalance? Former President Obama. The Republicans have no counter, as Presidents Trump and Bush were wretched failures.
IT’S SO EASY TO SASHAY AWAY
Trump is making it easy to walk away, too.
Even many who’ve come to expect Donald Trump to kowtow to Russia’s Vladimir Putin were taken aback on Friday afternoon, when the Republican president announced an agreement to import Russian diesel fuel to the United States despite his own country’s sanctions policy. The Treasury Department soon after said it had unilaterally decided to lift existing sanctions on Russian diesel exports.
Trump didn’t stop there. On Friday night, he offered his effusive thanks to the Russian dictator; on Saturday afternoon, he called on Ukraine to get a new president; and on Saturday night, he proceeded to trash Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly while defending Russia’s desire for peace despite all evidence to the contrary. [MS NOW]
His allegiance isn’t to the Republican Party or the United States. It’s to his own vision of wealth, and if that requires him to abandon American allies and snuffle up to autocrats, he’ll do it. This is what we’ve seen with NATO, Ukraine, various autocratic nations, and our Middle East allies, as well as individual Republicans who he viewed as no longer useful.
So will Republicans abandon him? While a majority of their base will stick with them even as they learn to despise President Trump, the independents are much less likely to do so. They’re more likely to switch their votes, or sit it out.
THE ORGAN AT THE FUNERAL
… has funereal tones. Here’s one:
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas boldly declared in July that “the midterms will be decided by the price of gasoline in October.”
That prediction now looks strikingly prescient — though not in the way Marshall may have hoped: October has arrived with gasoline prices sharply higher, and Republican candidates across the country facing surprisingly competitive races.
Since the war in Iran began in late February, the average price of gasoline in the US has risen by about 46%, driven largely by disruptions to global oil markets caused by the war that many Republicans, Marshall included, have consistently defended. [CNN via KAKE.com]
JUST A REMINDER …
“MoE” means Margin of Error. Pollster ratings courtesy Silver Bulletin.
CORGIS LIKE TO RACE
If I’m to believe the local horse track, at least. Otherwise, here’s the previous Campaign Update, delivered by a cowboy on a corgi.
- Candidate for the position of Senator from Texas Ken Paxton (R) keeps opening his mouth, which it turns out is a sure-fire way for him to get in trouble on the campaign trail:
Republican U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton suggested he would support cuts to federal benefits programs during a private fundraiser with Washington lobbyists last month, according to an audio recording obtained by The Texas Tribune, the fourth leaked clip from the Sept. 24 event.
In response to a question about reducing the federal deficit, Paxton said: “Making some reasonable cuts to mandatory spending — you’re gonna have to do it. Or there is no solution. That’s just the reality. We have to suck it up.” [The Texas Tribune]
Notably, he doesn’t address the other side of the equation: raising taxes. Cleaning up after the politicians’ spendthrift ways requires consideration of both cutting spending and raising taxes.
Trump’s War, aka the unnecessary attack on Iran, as well as Putin’s War, or the Russian attack on Ukraine, has been a drain on American munitions stores, so some cuts on military spending I’d ordinarily favor might be less than wise. Which is why I have no interest in an electoral position.
Paxton’s definitive failure to mention raising taxes, and including his rejection of the option, should be considered an automatic disqualifier for the position he seeks in the Senate.
I wonder how he’d comment on the Epstein Files?
Meanwhile, his competitor from the Democrats, James Talarico, has returned from …
“After holding more than 100 public events and meeting with tens of thousands of supporters, James came down with the flu but will be back on the trail soon,” Talarico spokesperson JT Ennis said in a statement to The Dallas Morning News [here].
Sounds like what happened in the week following my marriage. I listened to Mr. Smith Goes To Washington (1939), but I didn’t watch it – my sinuses hurt too much to bear the glasses I then wore.
Finally, Siena College (A-rated, with a slight Democratic lean) estimates Talarico continues to lead Paxton, 48% – 44%, but has a largish MoE of ±4.4 points, and Quantus Insights (B/C with a substantial Republican tilt) gives Paxton the lead at 47.2% – 46.7%, MoE of ±3.6 points for a statistical tie in both pollster’s measurements.
- The Teeter-Totter Tippers Again: In Iowa, Emerson College (A with a slight Democratic tilt) reports its latest results to be Rep Hinson (R) leading 47% – 45% over Josh Turek (D), with a MoE of ±3.8 points. Iowa is generating enough statistical ties in the Senate race that I’m convinced that we won’t know the identity of the new Senator from Iowa until the one official poll is conducted.
- It’s nearly the same in Maine, where a Washington Post/Schar School poll (B/C, slight lean Republican) gives Troy Jackson (D) a 50% – 46% lead over incumbent Senator Collins (R). The MoE is given as ±3.6 points, so this isn’t a statistical tie – but we can see it from here.
- In case you were wondering, no, Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead (D) is not dropping out of the Montana Senate race. But she’s certainly attracting hate-mail from … Democrats:
The chair of the Montana Democratic Party resigned the position Monday and became the latest Democrat to endorse an independent candidate over the party’s Senate nominee, Alani Bankhead.
Erstwhile chair Shannon O’Brien wrote on MS NOW that there were “real questions” about Bankhead’s “commitment to protecting a woman’s right to choose, her support of working people and her views of people living in poverty.”
She joined fellow Montana Democrats, including former senators Jon Tester and Max Baucus, in endorsing independent Seth Bodnar instead. [WaPo]
I have a friend in Montana who is a Bankhead backer and is pissed off at the Montana Democrats, but I have no opinion on the matter myself. Right at the moment, it appears the Montana Democratic Party is burning down.
- Minnesota has a poll that’s not from SurveyUSA, but from Mason-Dixon (A-, with a minor Republican lean), headlined The Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota poll, showing Lt Governor Flanagan (D) pulling ahead of Michelle Tafoya (R), 47% – 43% with a MoE of ±3.5 points, in the race for the State’s to-be-open Senate seat. But don’t assume Tafoya is finished just yet, as any sort of disaster on the Democratic side of the Minnesota ledger could cost them this seat. For the moment, I see this as a probable, but not guaranteed, Democratic win.
If this race ends up being as close, in the end, as it’s promising to be, this’ll be a message to everyone that what is perceived as incompetence is not acceptable, at least not in Minnesota. This is in reference to the welfare fraud recently discovered. Paired with the similar message going to the Republican candidates who appear to have failed themselves, on multiple matters, into losing electorally, and us voters had better see some brisk and immediate reformations in both Parties.
Or there may be new Parties.
- In what’s becoming an occasional entry of this feature, here’s some wry trivia from Kansas:
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall settled his debts this weekend with a bakery in Kansas after a bill for hundreds of treats his campaign ordered for a 2020 event sat unpaid for six years.
Holly Thomas, the owner of the shop that made cookies, brownies and cupcakes for Marshall’s primary election watch party, said in a social media post on Friday that she will not vote for the senator in this year’s election, where he is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, after he failed to pay the $678.75 he owed her small business.
“This isn’t about political parties or policy disagreements. It’s about my personal experience as a small business owner and the importance of honoring financial commitments,” Thomas said. “That experience is why Roger Marshall will never get my vote.” [CNN/Politics]
Senator and Doctor Marshall (R) might consider taking a photo of himself in handcuffs, as happened to some of his own patients at his instigation.
LATER: The wry feelings are fading away as more news related to the above comes out:
A Star analysis found that as a rural Kansas doctor before voters sent him to Washington, U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall charged an unusually high interest rate on patients’ unpaid bills, compared to other Kansas physicians and medical practices.
Marshall, a Republican incumbent seeking re-election, has faced sharp criticism in the month since The New York Times revealed he sued more than 700 patients over unpaid bills ranging from several thousand dollars to as low as $101. Eighty-one former patients were arrested after failing to appear in court.
Marshall has dismissed the outrage as a political stunt and defended his debt collection practices, calling them “very common.” [The Kansas City Star via msn]
This feels like the tapping on a nail that happens to be going into a coffin.
InsiderAdvantage (B+, slight Democratic tilt) sees a tight statistical tie with Hamilton leading, 47.5% – 46.7%. The MoE is a smallish ±2.83 points.
- IT’S A HARBINGER OF THE FUTURE … But exactly what does it imply? I can’t help but wonder how Senator D. Graham (R) of South Carolina feels about this post-debate, uh, praise:
Graham avoided another major flub [CNN/Politics]
In a bigger font as well, which I’ll spare the reader. Here’s WaPo’s coverage of the debate. I’ll continue to consider South Carolina a toss-up.
- National Public Affairs (B/C) has Senator Ricketts (R) of Nebraska leading Dan Osborn (I), 46% – 43%, with a MoE of ±4.0 points, so it’s a statistical tie. An interesting tidbit: The makeup of the respondents is Republican, 53%, Democrat, 26%. As in the previous report by YouGov, given the variance between between that and the measured intention of voting for Senator, this should be considered a warning to Senator Ricketts and the Nebraska Republican Party leadership.
JUST FOR LAUGHS:
For four days, a Republican super PAC ran its latest attack ad against Maine Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson, who is challenging incumbent Sen. Susan Collins in the November midterm elections.
The only problem was that the ad did not run in Portland, Maine. It ran in Portland, Oregon. [MS NOW]
The PAC blames a vendor. Was the vendor secretly a Democratic plant? It sure seems like there’s a big wave of Republican blundering.
EVER ONWARDS
I hope not. I wonder if this electoral season will be used as a basis for a television series?
