THE SEED OF INFURIATION
Trump supporters, MAGA and not-MAGA, often celebrate his attempts to “punch back ten times harder,” which sounds all tough and fighty – but politics isn’t always a punching game. Consider this:
The Trump administration on Tuesday paused more than $1 billion in Medicaid payments to California and Minnesota, which Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said would not be reversed until the Democratic-led states “demonstrate that every dollar meets federal requirements.” [MS NOW]
Governors Walz (D) and Newsom (D), the governors of Minnesota and California, respectively, are loathed by President Trump, the former for being on the Democratic ticket, and the latter for standing up to President Trump and making him look bad. No doubt, someone in the Administration thought this was a matter of retribution.
But now Trump has made himself look bad. He’ll look bad to every person affected by Medicaid funds being withheld.
And Walz and Newsom will make this Trump Administration action an important part of many races in their States. Minnesota residents are angry enough over the murders of Minnesota citizens by ICE agents that it probably won’t matter, but it’s possible a House seat or two will flip between the two States.
Dumb move.
NOT A RHETORICAL MIRACLE WORKER
Steve Benen notes the SAVE Act has made little progress with Congress:
The New York Times reported last week that his legislative plea, “which Mr. Trump implied was the reason behind the Thursday night speech, appeared to have landed with a whimper among Republicans on Capitol Hill and in campaigns around the country.” NBC News published a related report as this week got underway:
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, didn’t mince words when he was asked Monday whether President Donald Trump’s primetime speech succeeded in its goal of nudging the Republican-controlled Senate to pass his sweeping elections bill, known as the SAVE America Act.
“No,” Cornyn told NBC News. “We don’t have the votes. … I think the president’s getting some supremely bad advice.”
When NBC News asked Republican Sen. Thom Tillis whether Trump’s speech helped the legislation’s prospects, the North Carolinian replied, “Not at all. There’s no way you get this implemented in time for this election. I think people are being led to believe that that’s the case, and that’s just wrong.”
It’s true the House managed to pass it, as The Guardian (UK) notes, but it was somewhat pathetic:
House Republicans resurrect Save America Act by adding it to spending bill
Effort is latest attempt to pass bill that seeks to ban mail-in ballots and imposes voter identification requirements
That’s Speaker Johnson for you. Rather than make a persuasive case for it, or telling Trump to back off, he quips that intuitively he knows cheating is rampant and then strong-arms the legislation to its doom in the Senate.
The weakest Speaker in modern memory.
THE ANCHOR IN THEIR PANTS IS GETTING BIGGER
Trump’s War, and the Senate’s failure to stop it, will weigh more heavily on them as the Houthis try to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Even if they fail, it’ll push up the cost of insurance used by shippers, which will be passed on to consumers – and they’ll know who to blame.
AND BACK TO OUR DAILY SOAP OPERAS!
- Remember I mentioned the Democratic nominee for the Nebraska Senate race, Cindy Burbank, was still in the race, along with incumbent Senator Ricketts (R) and Dan Osborn (I), a few Campaign Updates ago? Now she’s out of the race:
Cindy Burbank, Nebraska’s Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate race, submitted paperwork Friday to remove herself from the November ballot, a move that could clear the way for nonpartisan candidate Dan Osborn to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts.
The Secretary of State’s office confirmed that Burbank filed a form saying she was declining to run Friday morning.
Burbank did not immediately respond to an Examiner request for comment. In a video posted to her Facebook page, she said: “I’ve looked at the numbers. I won’t be your next senator. So I have withdrawn my bid for U.S. Senate.” [Nebraska Examiner]
Confirmed by Ballotpedia, which tends to get these things right. And remember that part about suing to remove names from primary ballots? I suppose this next bit might be filed under, ummmmm, karma? What goes around comes around? Oh, there’s a dusty old aphorism that fits, surely…
Secretary of State Bob Evnen will send a letter on Monday to Nebraska Attorney General Mike Hilgers asking for his decision on whether Burbank should be allowed to drop out, Evnen spokesperson Rani Taborek-Potter said Friday.
Finally, this just seems to be incoherent gibberish.
[Incumbent] Ricketts’ campaign released a statement Friday on Burbank dropping out.
“Dan Osborn has rigged yet another party’s ballot because he is the Democrats’ nominee,” the statement said.
Perhaps Senator Ricketts and his campaign can’t believe this is happening. It does appear to be his worst scenario, but it’s impossible to say whether Osborn can keep it close until the end, and then pull out a victory.
- The previous Campaign Update mentioned that legislator Troy Jackson (D) is the presumptive Democratic nominee for Maine Senator Collins’ (R-ME) seat, and now we have a University of New Hampshire poll on both the race for the nomination, which shows Jackson with a large lead, and a general election poll, giving Jackson a 49% – 46% lead over Senator Collins, with a margin of error of ±2.8 points. That makes it a close race, presuming Jackson does, indeed, win the nomination. The convention is 25 July.
Senator Collins, realizing she’s in a tight race, has come out against the recent tariffs on Canadian goods:
[Maine] shares a border and a close economic relationship with Canada, making it among those most likely to see a strong economic downside from the new levies. And the strong reaction from Republicans and Democrats across Maine made it clear just how much of a political albatross the policy might be in a top battleground that Trump lost by seven points in 2024. Tariffs in general have been particularly unpopular in the Pine Tree State: A June New York Times poll found that 59 percent of likely voters in Maine disapprove of them. [Politico]
Both healthy for the nation and politically smart.
- A new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll for the Minnesota primaries shows Rep Craig and Lt Governor Flanagan tied at 40% in the race for the Democratic nomination for Senator Smith’s to-be-open seat, with 16% undecided and 4% leaning towards an undefined ‘other’, suggesting a large reservoir of votes are available. The undecideds is most popular with the aged 18-34 crowd and the female group. How does this differ compared with last month’s result?
The DFL-endorsed Flanagan gained 4 points from last month while Craig dropped 1, putting them even at 40% of the vote.
Lt Gov Flanagan has the endorsement of the Senator she might be replacing, Senator Tina Smith (D), received last February.
Michelle Tafoya has a large lead on the Republican side, 41%-10%, over second place candidate Royce White. The GOP-endorsed candidate, Adam Schwarze, continues to lag very badly, and undecideds are at 28%, meaning even if Royce White were to pick all of them up, Tafoya would still lead, although probably within the margin of error, which does not appear to be provided. She’s the nominee sans a black swan event, I think.
The primary is 11 August.
- If your candidate runs when a journalist asks a question, perhaps you should replace the candidate. I mean, Texas‘ GOP Senate candidate and Texas AG Ken Paxton is a prime candidate to be replaced based just on personal history. All those white hats in the video? Put that many on stage and that speaks to me … BLACK HAT. Senator Cornyn, stay near your phone. The Texas GOP may be placing an emergency call to you.
- An AARP poll gives Georgia Senator Ossoff (D) a 52% – 43% over challenger Rep Mike Collins. I don’t know if AARP polls have a good history, though.
- Michigan Senate candidate Abdul el-Sayed (D) has received the endorsement of Senator Tina Smith (D-MN), according to The Hill. But do Michigan voters care? It sure seems like Senator Smith has been a non-entity in her first, and, it turns out, only term in the Senate, but then that seems to apply to most of the one hundred Senators. She retires at the end of this term.
FIN
That’s it for this issue. The question marks remain numerous, and no one anxiously awaits the next issue.
