I hope this holds together:
Trump and Iran reach agreement that includes opening Strait of Hormuz [CNN, sub required]
Trump has been nattering on about cease-fire for months now, so there has to be doubt.
But now the two sides will jockey about and test each other. And, of course, Israel is independent of the United States, and PM Netanyahu has his own set of motivations, which does not seem to include pursuing military glory so much as keeping Israel in a position where it cannot pursue his prosecution on corruption charges.
Israel may mess this up for Trump.
Note that this sounds like a primitive approach to a lasting peace, because there’s no third party providing monitoring guarantees. Of course, who would Iran’s government trust? Regardless, this may be unstable and short-lived, because President Trump has been utterly humiliated.
I project he’ll be hooting about his profound victory, rather than resigning as he should. Amateurs, tasting power, rarely relinquish it, believing it brings them respectability, even as it reveals them to be failures.
