The Anchor In Their Underwear
I have mentioned this before, but President Trump continues to slide towards the bubbling lava pit of incompetency and American contempt. James Downie of MS NOW provides a helpful summation:
There’s no other way to put it: The most recent Associated Press-NORC poll was a disaster for President Donald Trump. Sixty-seven percent of Americans disapproved of his presidency, up seven percentage points in one month. His approval was down five percentage points over the same period to 33%. On immigration, his strongest issue, his approval was 40%; on the war with Iran, 32%; on the economy, 30%; and on cost of living, 23%.
That was just a single survey, but several brutal new polls have been released in the past week. YouGov put Trump’s approval/disapproval at 37%/59%, CNBC put it at 40%/58% and Reuters-Ipsos put it at 36%/62%. The president has been below 40% in most polling averages, such as The New York Times’ and G. Elliott Morris’ FiftyPlusOne. Instead of a “vibe shift” that permanently reshaped the parties’ coalitions, the voting groups who moved right in 2024 have fled the president in droves.
And, a little later,
The implicit question for GOP Senate candidates remains the same as last time: whether they support a President whose very governmental position is ripping holes in their Party, or do they defy him and infuriate, possibly, the President’s MAGA base? Not a cud I’d care to swallow, but if I had to I’d go with the rejection of the President, and I’d insert casual mentions of the Epstein Files into my speeches, because much of MAGA is reportedly still furious about the Epstein Files.
Chomp Chomp Chomp
And now for the tough sinew of this chuck of throwaway … flesh:
- In Maine, Governor Mills (D) has abandoned all hope before the primary:
Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced Thursday she is dropping out of her race to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the crucial state for Democrats’ hopes of winning Senate control, saying she had run out of money to compete.
Mills, a two-term governor and former prosecutor, had failed to excite Democrats in the state after launching her campaign last fall on a message of fighting President Donald Trump. Mills, 78, was a top recruit of Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer but lost ground quickly to Graham Platner, a 41-year-old oyster farmer who had never held elected office before but who has been drawing large crowds around the state with his blunt talk of confronting the establishment. [WaPo]
And, contra my last post on Maine, the primary date of 9 June will be another blank entry in my brain, at least with regards to Maine, unless one of the two other candidates in the Democratic primary pull off a shocker. Senator Collins (R) does not have a challenger.
Dissatisfaction with Congress may cost Senator Collins her job, as surprising as that may seem.
Will Mills support Platner?
In Mills’s statement, she didn’t mention Platner but said she would spend the rest of her gubernatorial term “working hard for you, standing up for what is right, defending the Constitution and doing what I can to preserve our democracy.”
- Is appointed incumbent Senator Moody (R) of Florida facing a hidden challenge? One of the components of the voters for Republicans in Florida are Latino-Americans who find the Democratic position on undocumented workers off-putting. As I understand it, the reasoning goes that those who did the hard work that is required of naturalized Americans do not believe undocumented workers should have to do less, and so they won’t vote Democratic. But now, as MS NOW reports, there may be the winds of change in the air …
Amid the Trump administration’s racist anti-immigrant crackdown, a reported surge in the arrests of Cubans isn’t merely a moral crisis — for Republicans, it could pose an electoral crisis as well.
A new study from the conservative-leaning Cato Institute found that due in part to a dramatic drop in the number of green card approvals, the Trump administration has overseen a massive spike in arrests. The report specifically found that “ending Cuban Adjustment Act green card approvals has certainly helped ICE to increase arrests of Cubans by 463 percent.”
This report aligns with President Donald Trump’s campaign vow to pursue the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history and likely is welcome news to the conservatives who have complained that the administration hasn’t deported enough people. At the same time, the report arguably adds to ongoing questions about how the White House’s crackdown — which appears to be one of the reasons for Trump’s cratering poll numbers — will affect Republicans’ electoral hopes in the months, or even years, ahead.
If enough Latinos decide they made a mistake in 2024, not only could House seats be flipped, but so could the Senate seat. I think this is a long-shot, especially as this reasoning is not reflected in the Florida polls I’ve reviewed, but President Trump has shown a knack for taking the wrong action at the wrong moment, a common problem for common liars and common criminals. And, from the same article, the words of true insiders can be more interesting than external critics …
Rep. Maria Salazar, a Florida Republican whose parents were Cuban exiles, has been warning about Latinos turning away from the GOP in November’s midterms. But Salazar, who has introduced legislation that sets forth a pathway to citizenship for some undocumented immigrants, appears to have become a pariah among hard-liners in the MAGA movement.
Stetson University is new to me, and I see it has what I will interpret as a conservative history and possible bias. Therefore, when its polling shows Senator Moody leading Alexander Vindman (D) 49% – 42%, and Florida House of Representatives member Angela Nixon 51%-38%, take it for what you will. The margins might be smaller.
- In Texas, Texas Public Opinion Research suggests James Talarico (D), the Democratic nominee, has small leads over Senator Cornyn (R) and AG Paxton (R), who are locked in a
deathmatchprimary runoff. University of Texas polling gives somewhat larger gaps of 7 and 8 points, respectively, to Talarico vs Cornyn and Talarico vs Paxton.Questions that come to mind:- If Paxton loses the runoff, will he distract Texas voters with howls of fake elections?
- If Cornyn loses the runoff, will he withdraw from politics in disgust?
- Will Trump endorse either prior to the runoff, or will his need to be right delay him until too late?
- If he does endorse, is that a disaster for the endorsee in the primary? If not there, in the general?
- Finally, would Trump consider endorsing Talarico in a ballsy reverse-psychology move?
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On The Issues: Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming (R).
Louisiana is harboring a surprise. Venerable Emerson College is giving neither incumbent Senator Cassidy (R) nor Trump-endorsed Rep Julia Letlow (R) a lead in the Republican primary, but instead giving State Treasurer John Fleming (R) the lead. Granted, a 1 point lead over Letlow is hardly definitive, but it’s a provocative result when Letlow has the burden of a Trump endorsement. This is not to say the Republican Party of Louisiana has suddenly shifted towards moderation, as can be seen in the position summation of Mr. Fleming on the right, but that President Trump may be a non-factor – or, as I’ve said repeatedly and tiresomely, a burden.
- In Georgia the University of Georgia’s polling shows Rep Collins (R) has a 22%-13% lead over Rep Carter (R), while retired football coach Derek Dooley has an 11% share. The poll shows Undecideds with a huge lead over all three of them at 53.6%. Because the primary is coming right up on May 19th, we may see a hugely dissatisfied group of primary voters sit this one out, or vote for a write-in candidate if that’s permitted. I should guess incumbent Senator Ossoff (D) is smiling.
Ironically, the Republicans oppose ranked-choice voting, yet that might have been the biggest danger to the Senator, as a moderate Republican might actually be the choice of unhappy Georgia voters.
- In Ohio, Senator Husted (R) has his first TV ad:, and David Bernstein has an important observation:
OH Sen Jon Husted unveils his first TV ad of the campaign (vs Sherrod Brown) – it does not include the word “Republican,” or any mention of Trump, or any reference to GOP issues.
At least in Ohio, Trump is not a popular word. But is Husted familiar enough to get him elected? Or is his challenger, the highly experienced Sherrod Brown (D), the better bet?
