Our latest plate of news, steaming and really overflowing, stop being generous Mom:
- In Colorado, at least through the lens of DuckDuckGo, it appears the media keeps trying to make the contest between incumbent Senator Michael Bennet and challenger John O’Dea look exciting, and the public is having none of it. Emerson College Polling gives Bennet a 46% – 36% lead, not far different from the last poll results of an 11 point lead. However, this is notable: … a plurality (39%) of Independent voters either have no opinion or have not heard of O’Dea, leaving room for Republican growth with this cohort. O’Dea will have to work hard and hope for a dab of luck, but at least he doesn’t have to peel voters away from Bennet. Bennet needs to connect with voters. I’ve mentioned this in earlier thoughts on O’Dea, but I think it’s both unfortunate and inevitable that a candidate as apparently moderate as O’Dea ends up in a competitive, or even Democratic state. In a safe Republican state the extremists swarm.
- A- rated Quinnipiac University Poll agrees with Emerson College Polling. Incumbent Connecticut Senator Blumenthal (D) has an overwhelming 17 point lead over challenger Leora Levy (R), 57% – 40%. That is a very big hill to climb in six weeks. Don’t look for the Republicans to pick up a seat here.
- B+ rated Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion is weighing in on the Pennsylvania Senate race, awarding Lt. Governor Fetterman (D) a 49% – 44% lead over Dr. Mehmet Oz (R). This is a smaller gap than most polls, but it’s worth noting that this poll has a margin of error of 6 points, which is rather high. I mean, Oz could actually be ahead, or Fetterman could have a huge lead of 11 points. They needed to do more interviews.
- In Kansas Emerson College Polling says incumbent Senator Moran (R) leads Pastor Holland (D) 45% to 33%, suggesting Moran’s extremist stance when it comes to abortion is not a terminal condition, despite the rejection of an anti-abortion Constitutional amendment by Kansas voters earlier this year.
Or could it be?
A walk down memory lane tells us that Moran won his seat in 2016 by a full 30 points. Assuming Emerson got this poll right, that implies Moran has lost 18 points worth of support, and Emerson advertises a “Credibility Interval”, similar to margin of error, of ±3 points. Yes, Holland is potentially 9 to 15 points down, and, on the low end, that’s significant. Then note that Moran is not yet over 50%, the critical point at which the #2 contender has to start persuading voters to change their minds, rather than just persuade the undecided to pick the #2. 18% are undecided, enough to take Holland over the top.And there’s two more Kansas factors to consider, with information also from Emerson’s poll. First, Governor Kelly (D) is leading in her reelection effort by four points. In Republican Kansas, this is a huge margin for her to hold. Can her example of a competent Democratic help Holland? Second, Governor Kelly’s opponent from four years ago, extremist Kris Kobach, is running for his old position of AG. Yes, he leads the race against his Democratic opponent – but it’s only a two point lead! Could Kobach drag down Moran? It seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened in American politics.
All that said, I’d be shocked if Moran lost. But Holland, if he’s an adept campaigner and doesn’t hesitate to use Moran’s liabilities against him, has a chance to turn this around. It’s slender, but it’s there. Let Moran stick his foot in his mouth, and this race could be the sleeper of the season.
- The Granite State Poll in New Hampshire gives incumbent Senator Hassan (D) a 49% – 41% lead over challenger retired Brigadier General Bolduc. Notable comment: Bolduc garners the support of just under half of Independents (45%), while 30% support Hassan and 21% support [Libertarian] Kauffman. I think Hassan should strive to attract more Independent support, otherwise it’s a weak spot. Although how Independents can vote for a guy, by whom I mean Bolduc, who thinks voters shouldn’t elect Senators is baffling. This pollster is unknown to FiveThirtyEight.
- CBS News/YouGov gives Georgia Senator Warnock (D) a 51% – 49% lead over challenger Herschel Walker (R). YouGov is a B+ rated pollster. A basic tenet of my position on the Republican Party is reinforced by this commentary: Walker’s supporters say they aren’t voting for him mainly because they like Walker; instead most say they are voting for him either to oppose Warnock or because Walker is the Republican Party’s nominee. Bold mine. Never mind that Walker’s mendacious and incoherent and we can’t even get to questions about his competency for the position of Senator because the muck is so deep. He was nominated and that’s it for the thinking part of the program. Toxic team politics. It’s crap like this that makes me think the United States is doomed.
- Conservative pollster Trafalgar has challenger Adam Laxalt (R) leading incumbent Senator Cortez Masto (D) 47% – 43% in Nevada. Trafalgar has seemed to be leaning more conservative than most pollsters. Do they know something the other pollsters don’t?
- B- rated Civiqs gives North Carolina’s Cheri Beasley (D) a 49% – 48% lead over Rep Ted Budd (R) in the race for an open Senate seat. This race is a real sizzler at the moment. Can the former President sink Rep Budd through some political misstep over the next few weeks?
- If Senator Moran doesn’t lose (see above), perhaps the sleeper race of the year will be that of Senator Mike Lee (R) of Utah, as his lead over Evan McMullin (I) has shrunk to two points, 36% – 34%, with 16% undecided and the balance looking at other options. This poll is from Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics, unknown to FiveThirtyEight, and claims a margin of error of ±3.43 points. Their previous poll of late July gave Lee a five point lead, so McMullin appears to be making progress. Can he close the gap? Utah Republicans must be sweating this one out, knowing that Lee is a close ally of the former President, and Trump is looking worse and worse every day.
- Crosscut.Elway gives Senator Murray (D) of Washington a 50% – 37% over challenger Tiffany Smiley (R), one of the more moderate Republican Senate candidates this year. There’s a ±5% margin of error.
The previous soup bowl of news is here.
